Jacob deGrom
Between 1984 – 1990, the Mets finished in second place or better. Over the course of these seven seasons, the Mets averaged 95 wins. Without question, this was the best stretch in Mets history. It’s strange to think that any point in time your team averages 95 wins over the course of five seasons, you are disappointed. However, as Ron Darling expained to Mike Francesa, he feels “very disappointed” that the Mets didn’t accomplish more.
While Dariling’s feelings are understandable, and many Mets fans would agree with him, there are a number of reasons that we can point to as the reason why the Mets didn’t win more. Rick Sutcliffe went an amazing 16-1 after the Cubs acquired him helping them win the division in 1984. The Mets had to contend with a really good Cardinals team year in and year out. The Mets were snakebit with injuries during the 1987 season. The Mets ran into Orel Hershiser, who had one of the greatest seasons for a pitcher ever in 1988, in the NLCS. However, truth be told Davey Johnson managed a horrific series. In 1989, the team was in transition, and in 1990, the Pittsburgh Pirates were just better and were embarking on their own run. All of these reasons are valid, but the main reason everyone points to would be the drug problems, namely with Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry.
There’s another reason why those Mets teams only got one shot at a World Series – the postseason format. Back in that time frame, the only teams that went to the postseason were the division winners. In today’s game, it would be unheard of a team winning 98 games not only missing the postseason, but also missing the postseason by three games. If you apply, the current postseason rules and divisional formats to the 1980’s, the Mets would have had won the NL East for all seven of those seasons. Its possible that instead of talking about the 1986 World Series, we’re talking about the Mets’ dynasty. It’s possible the Mets would’ve won multiple World Series during that stretch. It’s also possible that like the Braves in the 90’s, the Mets would only win one World Series, and we would be left questioning what happened.
Whatever may be the case, it’s apparent that those Mets teams did not get as many chances to reach the postseason as this current Mets team will. Last year, the Mets won the NL East with 90 wins. From 1984 – 1990, the Mets only won the NL East in the two seasons they won 100 games.
There is no reason for this Mets team to only go to the postseason twice with their current core group of players. Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard are under team control until 2019. Young players like Michael Conforto already contributing, There are big prospects like Dilson Herrera and Amed Rosario who we should see within the next few seasons at Citi Field contributing to what is already a World Series contending team. Without being too unreasonable, I believe this Mets team is set to contend for a longer period of time than Ron Darling’s Mets’ teams. To expect that seems unreasonable, but when you consider the young talent already on the team and in the pipeline, it’s certainly possible.
So before the Mets play their home opener today, they’re going to raise 2015 National League Champions flag. As we saw again that postseason, there is a lot that can happen along the way that can help you advance in each series. If not for Daniel Murphy having a game for the ages, and the Dodgers being unable to hit deGrom despite him having nothing, the Mets lose in the NLDS. The Mets are instead raising at 2015 National League East flag. So no, the 2016 season is not World Series or bust, nor in retrospect is the Mets only winning one World Series from 1984 – 1990 really disappointing.
With that said, I don’t blame Ron Darling for feeling the way he does. I won’t blame the current Mets players from feeling the same way about 2015. There is a World Series championship in the Mets clubhouse. Whether that is in 2016 or later, we do not know yet. Right now, I will say that as long as this Mets group wins one World Series, I won’t be disappointed because I will have been able to see something that has only happened twice in the Mets 54 year history. No matter what happens in 2016, it promises to be a special season, and I can’t wait to watch each and every minute of it.
Lets Go Mets.
Unless his wife goes into labor, Jacob deGrom is set to start the Mets home opener. Can you name the other Mets pitchers who have started the team’s home opener? Good luck!
During his Mets career, Jon Niese was seemingly an excuse a minute. If anything went wrong, he fell to pieces. If he had a poor start, there had to be another reason why other than the fact that he pitched poorly.
There was one-time in his career that he had a valid excuse. On July 24, 2015, Niese took the mound against the Dodgers. In three innings of work, he allowed six runs on eight hits. It was a horrendous start. A huge reason why was his head was somewhere else. While he was toeing the rubber at Citi Field, his wife was in labor in Ohio. He had to rush to the dugout to get on FaceTime to see his son being born. Niese claimed this day messed up his entire season.
Up until that point, Niese had a 3.36 ERA. He would finish the year with a 4.13 ERA. Being a parent is hard. Being a pitcher is hard. Maybe, just maybe, there was something to this Niese excuse.
With that in mind, the Mets should just skip Jacob deGrom‘s start and fly him down to his home in Florida. His wife’s due date has come and gone. If his wife goes into labor, he has a two hour flight. This doesn’t include getting to the airport, landing, and going to the hospital. Long story short – if his wife goes into labor, and he’s in New York, he’s missing the birth.
It’s not worth it. There’s nothing I would’ve traded to be there when my son was born. Every parent feels the same. He should be there now. His wife needs him, and his team doesn’t need him yet.
Due to baseball’s inane scheduling, the Mets have plenty of options to pitch on Opening Day. Matt Harvey can pitch on full rest as can Bartolo Colon. Steven Matz hasn’t pitched in over a week now and could move his start up one day. Also, the Mets could turn to the long man in the bullpen, Logan Verrett, and let him make a spot start like he did so well last year. That’s four pitchers the Mets can reasonably use to pitch on Opening Day.
If the Mets slide Verrett into the rotation temporarily, the Mets will not need deGrom until his wife has given birth. The Mets can even call-up another pitcher like Erik Goeddel or Sean Gilmartin, who can also make a spot start, due to Major League Baseball’s paternity leave.
It’s important for deGrom to be in the right mindset whenever he takes the mound. No one wants him up there pitching while his mind is somewhere else. Also, what do you do if he gets the call while he’s on the mound in the second or third inning? No one is warming up. You can’t just pull him off the mound. You also can’t keep the news from him while someone warms up in the bullpen. It’s a dilemma.
It can be best resolved by not pitching him. Let him go home and see his son get born. Let him take the mound when he can focus on baseball instead of peeking in the dugout to see if his wife has called.
Starting a game when his wife was in labor led to an awful start from Niese. As he will tell you, that start caused him to pitch poorly the rest of the year. There’s no reason to risk deGrom to the same fate. The Mets should skip deGrom on Opening Day. Jacob deGrom should be home with his wife right now.
No one anywhere will suggest that a team’s Spring Training record is indicative of anything. In fact, statistics and results shouldn’t be over analyzed. With that said, there are some results from Spring Training that can reasonably be cause for alarm.
deGrom’s Velocity
Last year, Jacob deGrom‘s fastball averaged 95.81 MPH. This Spring, deGrom’s fastball has generally been between 91 – 93 MPH.
There are reasons for this. He took additional time off in the offseason with last year’s increased workload. He dealt with a minor leg injury. He had to get a new mattress because the old one gave him a stiff back. His wife is expecting and may deliver any day now. Overall, there have been a series a distractions and very minor injuries. Through it all, he hasn’t found his fastball.
Now, deGrom can probably still get people out with less stuff, but it’s not ideal. With a slower fastball, he can still be good, but he won’t be dominant. He may find his fastball in real games whether it is due to velocity or him holding something back in Spring Training. However, as of today, he is throwing 91-93 MPH, and Spring Training is effectively over. It’s fair to be concerned about deGrom’s velocity.
Cespedes’ Power
When Yoenis Cespedes came to the Mets, he put on a display. Up until 2015, he averaged 24 homers a year. In two months with the Mets, he hit 17 home runs.
This Spring he has hit one homerun. He has been working with Kevin Long to change his approach at the plate. He’s had stiffness in his hip. In the NLCS, he had to pull himself from a game with an aggravated AC joint in his right shoulder. That same right shoulder has been bothering him this Spring.
Now, Cespedes is a streaky hitter who can start hitting home runs all over the place once the season begins. His one homerun came in the last Spring Training game, which is hopefully a sign of good things to come. However, at this point, we cannot dismiss the possibility that the decreased power is from this new approach, or his wonky right shoulder, or both.
Bastardo’s Control
With Antonio Bastardo, there are two issues you have with him: (1) he pitches well every other year; and (2) walks.
For starters, based upon the pattern of Bastardo’s career, he will have a rough 2016. In even numbered years, his ERA+ has been under 100 and his ERA has been 3.94 and above. In odd numbered years (where he played a full season) his ERA+ is 129 and above, and his ERA has been 2.98 and below. As we know, this is an even numbered year, and his Spring hasn’t instilled any confidence that the pattern will change.
One big reason why is Bastardo has walked 5 guys in 10.1 innings this Spring. Both Terry Collins and Dan Warthen are worried about his command. Warthen has been working with Bastardo on his mechanics to no avail. It’s a problem that needs to be fixed because Bastardo has walk issues. In his career, he averages 4.1 BB/9 (not good) in odd numbered years. In the dreaded even years, he averages 4.7 BB/9 (worse). Right now, Bastardo has given no indication this odd year – even year pattern won’t continue.
Conforto Hasn’t Played RF
Right now, the Mets have five outfielders capable of playing everyday. Of those five, Curtis Granderson, Alejandro De Aza, and Juan Lagares have platoon splits. Last year, Michael Conforto was only allowed to face righties the vast majority of the time.
The plan for Conforto this year was to let him play everyday. Having Conforto play everyday and not play in RF is going to be difficult. When the Mets face a lefty, especially a tough lefty, it’s likely Collins will want Lagares in CF and Cespedes in RF. That means the left-handed batter will have to play RF. In that circumstance, Collins will be more likely to play Granderson or De Aza as both have experience in right field.
For his part, Conforto hasn’t played right field in his very limited time as a professional. He’s worked there during practices in Spring Training, but he has not played right field in a game. There is simply no substitute for in-game experience. It’s likely the lack of game experience may hold him back. It’s likely Collins will not play Conforto in right.
By not playing Conforto against lefties, they may be hampering his development. Furthermore, the Mets may not be putting their best lineup out there against lefties.
David Wright’s Back
To be fair, when David Wright returned from the DL last year, he hit .277/.381/.437 in 30 games. If Wright can keep that up – he’s a career .298/.377/.492 hitter – there’s no reason to be concerned about him. Even better, he had a full offseason to adequately prepare for 2016.
However, Wright had trouble playing three games in a row after his return from spinal stenosis. It wasn’t until this week that Wright dared to play four games in a row in Spring Training. At the end of the day, no one knows how many games Wright can play in 2016. Everything is in estimate or a guess whether it be 130, 100, 81, 10, etc. That’s a problem.
Wright is the Mets’ captain. He’s the best option at third base. He’s still a good hitter who gets on base more than anyone else in the lineup. Whether the Mets or anyone else will acknowledge it, the team needs him. Unfortunately, no one knows how much Wright can give them.
Overall, there are things about this Spring that should give Mets fans cause for concern. The record isn’t one of them. It’s not the production. It’s the team’s general health and preparedness for the 2016 season.
Despite these issues, the Mets still look to be a great team that can not only compete for a playoff berth, but also win the World Series.
Mostly, you should ignore Spring Training. The only results that matter is how a player is progressing toward getting ready for the season. That’s much more important than their stats or a team’s Win-Loss record. However, I do admit there is one aspect of Spring Training that has me troubled.
Things have been very quiet in Washington.
Last year, Bryce Harper went from asking where his World Series ring was to getting choked by Jonathan Papelbon in the dugout. Ian Desmond rejected a contract extension worth over $100 million, and he was entering a contract year. The pressure of which was too much, and he faltered last year. The Nationals opened the year with big players like Anthony Rendon, Denard Span, and Jayson Werth on the Disabled List. Each would play less than 90 games. Stephen Strasburg struggled out of the gate, and he would miss some time with a shoulder injury.
This all proved to be too much for the 2015 World Series favorites. It’s a lot for a good manager to handle. It’s a disaster when your manager is terrible. That’s what the Nationals’ 2015 season was – a disaster.
Well, the Nationals cleaned house. They brought in three time NL Manager of the Year Dusty Baker. They added character guys like Daniel Murphy. They sured up a weak bullpen with guys like Oliver Perez and Yusmeiro Petit. They spent an offseason getting healthy and getting ready for the 2016 season. They came to Spring Training ready to work. While Spring Training records do not matter, they currently have the best Spring Training record in all of baseball. Note, the Mets had the best record last year, and they went to the World Series (still, Spring Training records really mean nothing).
This all amounts to the Nationals doing a better job of getting ready for the season. This is a team that will be ready to jump out of the gates and start winning ball games.
The Nationals are going to have some early season help too. In April, they play 12 games against the Braves and Phillies. They have another seven against the Marlins. In fact, 19 of their first 24 games are against teams that were under .500 last year. With a better manager, a weak schedule, and a much healthier roster, the Nationals could have a huge April. A huge April could give a really good team a huge confidence boost for the rest of the season.
Right now, I will still be calm about Jacob deGrom and his diminished velocity. I will look the other way when the subject of the Mets’ relievers’ dead arms is discussed. I’ll roll my eyes at the Mets’ current winless streak.
deGrom still has time to regain velocity. Dead arms are a part of Spring Training. These games don’t count. The only thing that really matters is the Mets are ready for Opening Day. They have to be ready to jump out of the gate and start winning some games. The Mets are going to have a fight on their hands for the NL East crown.
Unlike 2015, the Washington Nationals are not taking anything for granted. They’re going to be ready to reclaim the NL East. Their going to challenge the Mets every step of the way in 2016.
Ask a Mets fan which team is going to represent the National League in the World Series, and you know what their answer will be. In a clubhouse full of confident guys like Matt Harvey, you know to a man the Mets believe they are returning to the World Series.
You know who agrees that the Mets will return to the World Series? Eric Hosmer. As Hosmer told Ebenezer Samuel of the New York Daily News:
You can definitely see the Mets being that team to get back on that stage and win on that stage. Not only did they get experience (from the World Series), but they’ve got guys who have established themselves as superstars in the game. I think the future is bright for those fans in New York.
Of course when talking about the reasons why the Mets can return to the World Series, Hosmer invokes the pitching staff, especially Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard. As Hosmer notes, “. . . the hardest thing is to be able to have the quality starting pitching and not only have the quality but to have the depth as well. They have it, and they will be more comfortable in the playoffs.”
What was surprising was in addition to the Mets starting pitching, Hosmer named Lucas Duda as a reason why the Mets could repeat as National League pennant winners. He didn’t name Yoenis Cespedes who electrified the Mets when he joined them after the trade deadline. He didn’t name Michael Conforto, who hit two home runs in a World Series game and who refused to make the last out of the World Series. He didn’t even name Curtis Granderson who hit three home runs in the World Series. He named Lucas Duda whose poor throw home in Game 5 allowed Hosmer to score the game tying run. Why him? Well according to Hosmer, we shouldn’t judge Duda based upon one throw:
The fact that it happened in the ninth inning magnified the situation more, but if you look at what Duda did, he was the one who got multiple RBI hits for them (that game) and got things going. I think that play, it’s a small sample size of what actually happened for him in the World Series.
Hosmer is right, and he should’ve taken it a step further. Duda has been terrific for two plus seasons now, and yet, there will always be a segment of the fan base that will judge him solely for that one throw.
In Duda’s first two full seasons as the Mets first baseman, he has hit .249/.350/.483 with 57 homers and 165 RBI. His OPS+ is 134, and he has a cumulative 6.6 WAR. In the NL East clincher, he hit the grand slam keynote address. He hit another grand slam in the fourth and deciding game of the NLCS. Overall, Duda is as good a first baseman as there is in baseball. He is a legitimate power threat in the middle of the Mets lineup. He gets on base to boot.
So yes, Hosmer is correct in pointing out that Duda is a big reason why the Mets can and will return to the World Series. Overall, between the Mets pitching and hitting from players like Duda, they are good bets to return to and win the World Series.
A pitcher has an 8.10 ERA? Big deal. Your starting pitcher is missing a few miles per hour on his fastball? It’s still early. It’s Spring Training. You don’t get upset about things like this in Spring Training.
Except the regular season is less than two weeks away, and Jacob deGrom has yet to throw it over 93 MPH. He’s had some leg and back problems in Spring Training. He threw a lot of innings last year. He tired after the NLDS. Should Mets fans at least start getting concerned that one of their three aces still has diminished velocity this close to the regular season? Well, if the scouts are right, not yet:
Anyhow, couple scouts shrugged of deGrom’s velocity. Again, it's spring after all. He also had a weird schedule with the leg and back thing.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) March 21, 2016
If not today, then when? deGrom has two starts left before he toes the rubber in Kansas City for the second game of the season. Of course with his wife expecting, that schedule can get thrown out of whack. When deGrom’s son is born, he intends to be there. This will further throw a wrench into deGrom’s ability to get ready for the season and/or find those extra few miles per hour.
Perhaps deGrom already has them. Perhaps he wasn’t bringing his best stuff against a Marlins team the Mets will face 19 times this year. Maybe he is saving those bullets for the regular season and postseason rather than wasting them in Spring Training. Because it is Spring Training, anything is still possible.
But at some point, it will no longer be Spring Training. At some point, we will learn that either deGrom has his fastball, or he doesn’t. Today is not the day. It’s too soon to be worried about deGrom’s arm. However, that time is coming fast. Hopefully, that day will never come.
The Mets have a $140 million payroll. The strength of the team is its young, cost-controlled pitching. The pre-arbitration pitchers make little money by baseball standards. However, their $500,000+ salary should allow them to live comfortably.
Families make a lot less than that, and they can put a roof over their families heads and put food on the table. One of the crazy things a family is able to afford, even with relatively modest means, is a mattress for everyone. When they go away to places like Florida, they can stay at places that have decent mattresses. So with that said, why can’t the Mets and their players?
Last year, Steven Matz almost missed the postseason because he injured his back sleeping on a Barcalounger. Yesterday, Jacob deGrom missed his Spring Training start because he tweaked his back sleeping on a mattress that was too soft. He was able to throw a bullpen. He then counseled with Matt Harvey who, like Baby Bear, had a mattress recommendation that is just right.
I know, I know. We should calm down. Matz was able to pitch in the postseason, and deGrom was able to pitch a pain free bullpen. However, I get nervous because it’s the dumbest things that interfere with a great or potentially great season.
The 1987 Mets never got traction with their pitchers missing time. Most notably was Dwight Gooden and his cocaine suspension. Aside from Gooden, I think every Met pitcher had an injury including the guy who threw batting practice.
In 1988, the Mets returned to form, but there was a strange injury that hurt their chances at another World Series title. On the day the Mets clinched the NL East, Bob Ojeda, who was amazing in 1986, nearly severed the middle finger on his pitching hand while trimming the bushes in his front yard. The Mets, who dominated the Dodgers in the regular season, lost the NLCS in seven games.
In 2006, Duaner Sanchez suffered a season ending shoulder injury during a late night cab ride to get a late night bite. This caused a number of moves to try to replace his spot in the bullpen. In the seventh inning of Game Two of the NLCS, Guillermo Mota shook off Paul Lo Duca and threw a change up that Scot Spiezio turned into a game tying triple. In Game Seven, Aaron Heilman allowed Yadier Molina to hit the series winning homerun. It’s possible Sanchez would’ve closed the door in either situation. Instead, he was unavailable.
The overriding point is that it’s not just the Tommy John surgeries that kill your chances. It’s also the yard work and can rides. It’s the unforeseen problems that arise. Maybe the Mets win in 1988 if Ojeda hires a gardener. Maybe the Mets win in 2006 if Sanchez orders room service. I don’t want to say maybe the Mets win in 2016 if their pitchers had better mattresses.
If in the equipment manager, I’m ordering a mattresses that Harvey recommended for every player. The 2016 season cannot be derailed by a bad mattress.
In his first Spring start, Jacob deGrom showed decreased velocity, and he got hit around a bit. Today, deGrom will miss his start with back stiffness.
Take a deep breath. It’s still only Spring Training. The season is still about a month away. There is time for him to rest and improve. Even if he’s not ready right alway, there’s a lot of off days early in the season that the Mets can navigate April without deGrom if needed. However, that’s jumping the gun. It’s just one day. Relax. Just keep your composure:
Man today’s players just don’t respect the game or their opponents. Years ago, they never would’ve celebrated on the field:
Yes, that’s Kirk Gibson celebrating a homerun off of Goose Gossage. That was from the 1984 World Series. You know what I couldn’t find anywhere? Gossage condemning Gibson for the celebration. Sure, it would seem like sour grapes, but he had a platform then and didn’t use it.
Now? Well now, the Hall of Famer rails against how players today celebrate. He called Jose Bautista and Yoenis Cespedes and their celebrations to be an embarrassment and disgrace to the game. He’s apparently taking issue with the bat flips:
Gossage comes off like an old man lamenting how things were better in his day. He is remembering the days when if you hit a homerun, you put your head down and rounded the bases. No one out there showed any emotion so as to not show anyone up. They knew if they did the pitcher was going to stick one in your ear. The thing is that he has selective memory. Additionally, times have changed.
In an ESPN the Magazine interview with Tim Keown, Bryce Harper shared his thoughts on player celebrating on the field:
Baseball’s tired. It’s a tired sport, because you can’t express yourself. You can’t do what people in other sports do. I’m not saying baseball is, you know, boring or anything like that, but it’s the excitement of the young guys who are coming into the game who have flair. If that’s Matt Harvey or Jacob deGrom or Joc Pederson or Andrew McCutchen or Yasiel Puig — there’s so many guys in the game now who are so much fun.
Jose Fernandez is a great example. Jose Fernandez will strike you out and stare you down in the dugout and pump his fist. And if you hit a homer and pimp it? He doesn’t care. Because you got him. That’s part of the game. It’s not the old feeling — hoorah . . . if you pimp a homer, I’m going to hit you right in the teeth. No. If a guy pimps a homer for a game-winning shot . . . I mean — sorry.
If a guy pumps his fist at me on the mound, I’m going to go, ‘Yeah, you got me. Good for you. Hopefully I’ll get you next time.’ That’s what makes the game fun.
Overall, Harper’s thoughts represent a a change in the culture of baseball.
Players today are more apt to celebrate on the field. Their celebrations are more elaborate. When these celebrations happen, players seem to take it the same way Heyward says he takes it.
Sure, there are current players who feel differently than Bautista, Cespedes, and Heyward. Apparently, there were people like Kirk Gibson who felt differently than Goose Gossage when it came to celebrating a homerun back in the day when Gossage pitched.
If this is the current culture of the sport, we should all accept it. As long as these bat flips don’t result in players getting plunked, who are we to judge? In fact, what Harper states is that the celebrations fuel him to get the pitcher the next time. If these celebrations are both fun and bring out the best in everyone on the field, how can this be anything but good for baseball?
For baseball’s part, they seem to be embracing it showing the bat flips in commercials and putting them on YouTube. Baseball is going it because the culture has changed from the time Goose Gossage has played the game. Players want to celebrate, and fans want to see it.
The culture of baseball has changed whether or not the Goose Gossages of the world approve.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com