Ike Davis
With the Mets trading Lucas Duda to the Tampa Bay Rays, we bring an end to the Mets career of one of the better Mets in their history, and we also see the beginning of the end of an era of Mets baseball.
Duda was a player with a promising bat the Mets that first Omar then Sandy tried to get into the lineup. With players blocking his path to his natural first base position, Duda would be moved to the outfield. Duda would be standing there ins what was then a fairly cavernous right field when Johan Santana threw the first no-hitter in Mets history. Lost in that game was Duda homering in the sixth to put the game away.
Despite Duda being in the outfield during one of the biggest moments in Mets history, it became increasingly clear he wasn’t an outfielder. He belonged at first base. The fact he even forced a competition for the spot with Ike Davis was impressive. Duda did all he could to wrestle that spot from Davis, and he finally showed the Mets what he could do hitting 30 home runs in 2014. He had more in store in 2015.
When people have typically written about the 2015 season, they usually credit with Yoenis Cespedes for winning the National League East. This overlooks how Duda almost single-handedly pulled the Mets into first place in 2015:
In that pivotal series that saw the Mets go from second to first place, Duda was 8-9 with a double, three homers, and five RBI. With Mets fans debate over whether Duda was clutch or not, this series should answer the question in the affirmative.
As we know that season would eventually end in heartbreak. Duda played his part throwing away the ball in Game 5 allowing Eric Hosmer to score the tying run. It was hard to watch, and unfortunately, it masked all the good he had done that season including his grand slam in the division clincher and his homer effectively sealing the pennant:
These are many of the many great things Duda has done in a Mets uniform. He was the second Mets player in history to hit three home runs in a game at home. Shockingly, he was second to Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Speaking of homering at Citi Field, Duda leaves the Mets as the all-time leader in home runs at Citi Field.
Hitting homers was one of the things Duda did well. This year, he passed notable Mets like Edgardo Alfonzo, Kevin McReynolds, and Todd Hundley to finish his Mets career with the seventh most in Mets history. Depending on whether you view Dave Kingman as an outfielder or first baseman, Duda’s 125 Mets homers are either the most or second most for a Mets first baseman.
There were many great moments with Duda, but none of the aforementioned moments were my favorite. My favorite Duda moment was a seemingly meaningless Spring Training Game in 2015.
One night, I was sitting up watching the game with my then one year old half watching a Spring Training game when Duda ripped a double leading to an enthusiastic Gary Cohen call to the effect of “LUCAS DUDA rips an RBI double . . . .” My son immediately latched on and began screaming Duda, and he wanted to see Duda play more and hit more. As that season wore on, he became more and more interested in baseball, and he would learn the Mets players. First one he’d learn:
That was a magical year as both a father and a Mets fan. I’d get to see the Mets go to the World Series for the third time in my life, but it would be the first time I’d get to experience it with my son. I still remember him trying to stay up to watch the games with me. I remember him getting me a Duda jersey for Father’s Day and getting the Duda growth chart at one of the Mets games. Even with Duda gone, we will still use it. I also remember him going crazy during that World Series cheering for the Mets:
Duda leaving does not only mean we are saying good bye to a good player who began his career with the Mets. We are also saying good-bye to a part of a Mets era. It was an era that saw the Mets go from a frustrating team a team that came so close to winning a World Series.
On a personal note, I see Duda leaving as part of the ever changing realization that my son is no longer a baby – he’s now a little boy. He doesn’t just snuggle up with me at bedtime trying to watch Mets games, he now goes outside and plays baseball with me.
It was time to move on, especially with Dominic Smith waiting in the wings. Still, as Curtis Granderson would point out, you just want to hold onto all of these moments just a little longer:
Like Granderson, I still want to hold on to not just Duda, but all of these memories. In reality, it’s time to move on to bigger and better things. With that said, I enjoyed each and every minute Duda was a Met (except for that throw), and I appreciate all he has done in a Mets uniform. He was a class act, who was always there to answer questions in even the hardest of times. On a personal note, he helped make another great fan. He deserves another opportunity to win a World Series, and I hope he does get that ring.
Good luck Lucas Duda.
As the Mets take the field today against the Oakland Athletics, they will play their last home game before the trade deadline. With the Mets looking to sell, this will likely be the final home game for many of the Mets players. If so, it has been a fun ride.
Lucas Duda – Duda has had an interesting Mets career. He was the right fielder for the Johan Santana no-hitter. He won the first base job from Ike Davis. He become a power bat in the middle of a Mets lineup that went to the World Series. He is a grand slam in the NL East clincher. He hit a three run homer in the NLCS clincher. He made a bad throw allowing Eric Hosmer to score. Overall, he has been an underrated Met, who became one of the team’s rare power threats at the position.
Curtis Granderson – Granderson has been the consummate professional, and he was the first major free agent to come to the Mets in the Sandy Alderson Era. He kept the Mets afloat in the 2015 season as the team dropped like flies around him. All three homers in the World Series gave the Mets a lead. He had a great September last year leading the Mets charge to the Wild Card. He accepted a bench role this season. He has been a great Met and an even better man doing more for the community than perhaps any Mets player we have ever seen.
Asdrubal Cabrera – It was his hot hitting bat that helped the Mets get the top Wild Card. After years of poor shortstop play, he was a steadying force. Things have not gone as well this year, but he is now doing all he can do to help the team.
Addison Reed – Reed was a shot in the dark when the Mets grabbed him before the waiver trade deadline in 2015. From there, Reed became the Mets best reliever, and perhaps the best reliever in baseball over that timeframe. He went from 7th inning reliever to a pennant winner to a dominant 8th inning guy last year to a lights out closer this year. He is the biggest trade chip, and he’s most likely going to be the first player gone. When he goes, he will leave behind a spot in the bullpen that will be near impossible to fill.
Jay Bruce – It is a testament to Bruce that he is having a career year this year after playing some of his worst baseball when he first put on a Mets uniform last year. He’s on pace for his first ever 40 home run season, and he has given the Mets a reason to consider trying to bring him back.
Jerry Blevins – The lanky Blevins is perhaps the least likely player to be traded of all that are on trading block due to his team option. If he goes, out the door goes the player who has made more appearances out of the bullpen than anyone this year. With him would go a terrific LOOGY out of the pen who pitched his best baseball in a Mets uniform.
There are other players we do not reasonably anticipate to go, which makes watching today all the more important. For any of the aforementioned players as well as some other players like Wilmer Flores, this will be the last time they will wear the home jerseys at Citi Field. Each one of these players have given us reason to cheer. Hopefully, they get an extra big cheer today.
With the Yankees pulling off that blockbuster last night, which included Todd Frazier, one of the few logical landing spots for Lucas Duda might have been eliminated. Considering the Tigers got a less than impressive haul for J.D. Martinez, who was widely considered the best bat on the trade market, it makes you wonder if the Mets are going to be able to get anything of value in exchange for their trade pieces – namely Duda. Certainly, that is troubling considering the Mets don’t want to lose the impending free agent without getting anything in return for him.
The soon to be 32 year old Duda is having another good year at the plate for the Mets. Through 67 games, the slugger is hitting .244/.351/.542 with 16 homers and 34 RBI. His 132 wRC+ is in the top 10 in the major leagues among first baseman with at least 250 plate appearances. Essentially, Duda is in the top third of first baseman. It is a position he has been since he took over the first base job from Ike Davis in 2014.
Arguably, a player like that is a second round draft pick or similar talent as the new free agent compensation system in place awards teams a second round pick for players the reject a qualifying offer and sign elsewhere.
Generally, one WAR is worth approximately $8 million. (Business Insider). In 2014 and 2015, Duda averaged a 3.3 WAR. After a lost year last year, Duda is seemingly back to being that player, which would make him worth about $26 million per year. With last year’s qualifying offer being $17.2 million, Duda is arguably worth whatever the qualifying offer number will be for the 2018 season.
But there is a difference between being worth the money and whether giving Duda roughly $20 million is a good allocation of resources. The Mets have significant holes that need to be addressed this offseason. The team needs to overhauled their bullpen. They also need a second baseman, third baseman, center fielder, and possibly a catcher. With the 22 year old former first round pick Dominic Smith waiting in the wings, the real question is whether another year of Duda is worth it?
There’s just no clear cut answer to that question. As easily as you can point to Duda’s production and the value in giving Smith more time to develop in the minors, you can also argue Duda hinders the Mets ability to build the best possible team in 2018. Moreover, there is the risk Duda could re-injure his back.
Of course, Duda can also reject the qualifying offer. Coming off his 2014 season, he rejected a three year $30 million contract extension. He could similarly reject a qualifying offer to get the contract he believes he is worth.
No matter which direction the Mets go there is a risk. Considering the likely worst case scenario is the Mets are stuck with a first baseman with a good OBP capable of hitting 30 homers a year, keeping him instead of moving him for something less than what he is worth is a risk well worth taking.
At the 2006 trade deadline, many believed the Mets were in need of a big starting pitcher to help the best team in baseball win the World Series. At that time, the big name was Barry Zito, but the Mets were reportedly balking at the asking price which included their top prospect in addition to their best set-up man in Aaron Heilman. Certainly, Heilman became untouchable with Duaner Sanchez‘s injury. However, there is still some debate whether any of the Mets prospects should have been so untouchable so as to prevent them from being moved in a trade many believed the Mets needed to make to win the World Series.
Keeping in mind the Mets didn’t want to move a top prospect, let’s take a look at who was considered the Mets Top 10 prospects back in 2006 and see how their respective careers fared:
The Mets 2003 first round draft pick was seen by many as a future star in the major leagues. He was supposed to be a five tool center fielder. Unfortunately, it did not pan out that way.
Milledge first got his chance in 2006 at first due to a Xavier Nady injury and then because of Nady being traded to sure up their bullpen due to the Sanchez injury. Milledge would show he was not quite ready for the limelight. That shouldn’t be surprising considering he had only played 84 games in AAA, and he was 21 years old. In 56 games, he would only hit .241/.310/.380 with four homers and 22 RBI. He would be unfairly chastised for high fiving the fans after a game tying home run in extra innings.
Unfortunately for him, the home run that led to much hand wringing might’ve been the top moment in his career. Milledge would never figure it out for the Mets, and his star potential would diminish. In 2007, the Mets would move him for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.
Overall, Milledge would only play six years in the majors hitting .269/.328/.395 in parts of six major league seasons. He would play his last game for the Chicago White Sox as a 26 year old in April 2011. From there, he would play four years in Japan. In Japan, he wouldn’t re-establish himself as a major leaguer like Cecil Fielder did, nor would he become an acclaimed Japanese League player like Tuffy Rhodes. Rather, he hit a disappointing .272/.348/.447 averaging 10 home runs and 32 RBI.
Milledge suffered injuries limiting him to just 34 games in 2014 and 2015. No one would sign him to play professional baseball anywhere in 2016. In the end his professional baseball career is over at the age of 31.
Petit was the one major prospect the Mets would move to help the 2006 team. The Mets included him in a deal with Grant Psomas and Mike Jacobs for Carlos Delgado. Delgado would go on to become a slugger at first base the Mets had never truly had in their history. For his part, Petit has put together a nice major leauge career.
Petit would not figure things out until he became a San Francisco Giant in 2012. Under the tutledge of Dave Righetti and Bruce Bochy, he would become a very good long man in the bullpen. In his four years with the Giants, he as 10-7 with one save, a 3.66 ERA, and a 1.128 WHIP.
His best work was in the 2014 postseason. That year the Giants rotation was Madison Bumgarner and a group of starters the team could not truly trust to go five innings in a game. Accordingly, Petit was used almost as a piggyback starting pitcher. In that 2014 postseason, Petit would make four appearances going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA (no runs allowed in the NLDS or NLCS) and a 0.868 WHIP.
In the past offseason, Petit was a free agent, and he signed a one year $3 million deal with the Washington Nationals with a $3 million team option for 2016. He struggled this year in his 35 relief appearances and one start going 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.323 WHIP.
In his nine year career, Petit is 23-32 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.276 WHIP. Whether or not his option is picked up by the Nationals, we should see Petit pitch in his tenth major league season in 2017.
The Mets traded their 2004 third round pick with Dante Brinkley for Paul Lo Duca. Lo Duca was the emotional leader for the 2006 Mets that almost went to the World Series, and Hernandez never pitched in the major leagues.
Hernandez would bounce around from the Marlins to the Mariners to the Red Sox to the Royals to the White Sox and finally to the Diamondbacks. While Hernandez had shown some early promise with the Mets, he never realized it. He topped out at AAA where he would pitch for four seasons going 30-36 with a 5.80 ERA and a 1.562 WHIP.
Hernandez has not given up on his major league dream. Since 2012, Hernandez has been pitching in the Atlantic Leagues. Over the past three seasons, he has pitched Winter Ball. He made 25 starts and two relief appearances for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, he was 7-10 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.216 WHIP. At the moment, the 30 year old Hernandez has not been signed to play for a Winter Leagues team.
The Mets 1999 38th round draft pick was part of the aforementioned trade that helped the Mets acquire Delgado. The Mets were largely able to use Jacobs as part of the trade because of the tremendous start to his career.
In 2005, Jacobs hit .310/.375/.710 with 11 homers and 23 RBI in 30 games. While Jacobs continued to be a power hitter after leaving the Mets, he would never again reach those levels. Eventually, his impatience at the plate caught up to him, and he would only only last seven years in the major leagues. His penultimate season was with the Mets in 2010 when he was unseated by Ike Davis as the Mets first baseman.
After being released by the Mets, Jacobs has spent the past six seasons in AAA with a 13 game cup of coffee for the Diamondbacks in 2012. In Jacob’s seven year career, he hit .253/.313/.473 with 100 homers and 312 RBI. As a Met, he hit .290/.360/.645 with 12 homers and 25 RBI. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, Jacobs would have the highest slugging percentage in Mets history.
At this point, it is unknown if the 35 year old Jacobs will continue playing professional baseball in 2017.
The one theme that is developing here is that while these players didn’t have a big impact in the majors or the Mets, Omar Minaya utilized these players to help the ballclub. Humber is a perfect example of that.
The Mets 2004 first round pick (third overall) had an inauspicious start to his professional career needing Tommy John surgery in 2005.
With that Humber would only make one start in his Mets career, and it wasn’t particularly good. With the Mets collapsing in the 2007, and the team having a rash of starting pitcher injuries, the team turned to the highest drafted player in their system. Humber kept the woeful Washington Nationals at bay for the first three innings before allowing Church to hit a two run homer in the fourth and then sowing the seeds for a huge rally in the fifth inning that would see the Mets once 6-0 lead completely evaporate in a frustrating 9-6 loss. This would be the last time Humber took the mound for the Mets. In his Mets career, he would make one start and four relief appearances with no decisions, a 6.00 ERA, and a 1.333 WHIP.
Still, he showed enough to be a major part in the trade that would bring Johan Santana to the Mets. Santana and Humber would both enter immortality. Santana would throw the first no-hitter in Mets history. Humber would become perhaps the unlikeliest of all pitchers to throw a perfect game. It was the 21st perfect game in baseball history. He joined David Cone as the only ex-Mets to throw a perfect game. He joined a much longer list of seven former Mets, highlighted by Nolan Ryan, who threw a no-hitter AFTER leaving the Mets. Humber would also become the pitcher with the highest career ERA to throw a perfect game.
In all, Humber played for five major league teams over his eight major league seasons. In those eight major league seasons, he has gone 16-23 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.420 WHIP. He threw his last major league pitch in 2013 in a season he went 0-8 in 13 starts. In 2014, he pitched for the Oakland Athletics’ AAA affiliate. In 2015, he pitched for the Kia Tigers of the Korean Leagues going 3-3 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.855 WHIP in 11 starts and one relief appearance.
Humber had signed on with the San Diego Padres and was invited to Spring Training in 2016. He was released prior to the start of the season, and he did not throw one pitch for any professional team in 2016. He is currently 33 years old, and at this point, he has not announced his retirement.
Gomez has been far and away the best player on the list of the 2006 Mets top prospects. He would be moved with Humber as a centerpiece in the Santana trade.
In Gomez’s early career, it was clear he was a Gold Glove caliber center fielder. He made highlight reel play after highlight reel play for the Twins. However, it was clear from how he was struggling at the plate, the projected five tool player wasn’t quite ready to be the hitter everyone anticipated he would be at the major league level. Eventually, the Twins traded him to the Milwaukee Brewers, and in Milwaukee, Gomez would figure it out.
In Gomez’s five plus years with the Brewers, he won a Gold Glove and was a two time All Star. He was also a coveted player at the 2015 trade deadline, and he almost became a New York Met again in exchange for Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores. As we all remember, Flores cried on the field, and the Mets front office was disappointed in Gomez’s medicals causing them to rescind the trade due to a purported hip issue.
Gomez would then be traded to the Astros, and the Mets would appear to be vindicated for their decision. Gomez played 126 games for the Astros before being released and picked up by the Texas Rangers. In Texas, Gomez began playing like the player the Mets coveted at the 2015 trade deadline. The 33 game burst came at the right time as the 30 year old Gomez will be a free agent for the first time in his career this offseason.
Overall, Gomez has played for 10 years, and he is a .257/.312/.415 hitter with 116 home runs, 453 RBI, and 239 stolen bases. He is still a good center fielder, and he may still have a couple of good seasons in front of him.
From the moment the Mets signed him as a 16 year old amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, F-Mart was seen as a top prospect. Many imagined he would become a five tool player like a Carlos Beltran. Instead, his career went the way of Alex Ochoa.
F-Mart was the first big prize Minaya brought in when he become the General Manager of the Mets. Understandably, he was considered untouchable in trade discussions. As it turns out, the Mets wished they moved him when they had the opportunity.
F-Mart would only play in 47 games over three years with the Mets hitting just .183/.250/.290 with two homers and 12 RBI. Eventually, with him not progressing as the Mets once hoped he would, and a different regime in place, F-Mart would eventually be put on waivers and claimed by the Houston Astros. With the Astros, he would only play in 52 games over two years, and he would just hit .225/.285/.424 with seven homers and 17 RBI.
In 2013, the Astros traded him to the Yankees for minor league depth. After the 2013 season, F-Mart would become a free agent, and he would find no suitors.
In 2014, he only played in the Dominican Winter Leagues, and in 2015, he played in only seven games in the Mexican Leagues. Given how he has bounced around and seeing how many major league teams have either passed on him or have forgotten his existence, it is hard to believe that he is just 28 years old.
Hernandez is undeterred, and he is still playing baseball. Right now, he is playing alongside current Mets shortstop prospect Luis Guillorme for Spain in the World Baseball Classic qualifying rounds. Spain would go 0-2 in the European Qualifier and will not be a finalist for the World Baseball Classic.
The Mets acquired Hernandez from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for backup catcher Vance Wilson in 2005. Hernandez intrigued the Mets because he was an exceptionally skilled defensive shortstop. The question with him was whether he was ever going to hit.
Despite these questions, and with Kaz Matsui starting the year on the disabled list, Hernandez would actually be the Mets Opening Day second baseman. On Opening Day, he would show everyone why he was so highly regarded defensively with an impressive over the shoulder catch. However, Hernandez would also show he would never be able to hit at the big league level. That fact may have forever changed Mets history.
Despite hitting .152/.164/.242 in 25 games with the Mets, he would make the NLCS roster. In Game 7 of the NLCS, with the Mets trailing 3-1, Jose Valentin and Endy Chavez led off the inning with back-to-back singles. Instead of going to Hernandez to pinch-hit for Heilman to get the bunt down, Willie Randolph went to an injured Cliff Floyd to try to win the game. Floyd would strike out, and Hernandez would enter the game only as a pinch runner for Lo Duca, who had worked out a walk to load the bases. From first base, Hernandez got a good view of how the series would end. Had Hernandez been able to hit just a little bit, it is possible he would have been sent up to bunt, and maybe things would have gone differently.
Overall, Hernandez never did show the ability to hit at the major league level. The Mets gave up waiting. In 2008, with the Mets desperate for relievers to plug in holes to a decimated bullpen, Hernandez was traded to the Nationals for Luis Ayala.
Hernandez would play for four teams in six seasons hitting .241/.300/.314 with four homers and 60 RBI. While he did show he was skilled defensively, he could never hit enough to stick in the majors, and as a result, his major league career was over in 2010 when he was 27 years old.
From 2011 – 2013, Hernandez would play in AAA. For the past three seasons, he has played in the Japanese Leagues. In every season since 2006, the 33 year old has played in the Dominican Winter Leagues for Tigres del Licey. It is unknown at this point if he is going to play for the Tigres this year or if he will return to the Japanese Leagues next year.
Bannister was the Mets 2003 seventh round draft pick out of USC. He would become the first ever Brooklyn Cyclones pitcher to pitch a game for the New York Mets. Bannister had earned that right by beating out Heilman for the fifth spot in the 2006 Mets Opening Day rotation. There were a myriad of reasons including but not limited to Heilman’s importance in the bullpen.
Bannister’s career would get off to quite the start with him going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.393 WHIP. While he struggled with his command and couldn’t go very deep into games as a result, the Mets were willing to stick with him through those five starts. Unfortunately, Bannister would suffer a hamstring injury at the end of April that would linger for most of the year. By the time he was healthy, John Maine was already a fixture in the rotation. With the Mets acquiring Perez at the trade deadline, there was no longer a spot for him on the major league roster.
With there no longer being any room for him, the Mets moved him in the offseason to the Kansas City Royals for Ambiorix Burgos. It was a trade that was detrimental for both players. Bannister would pitch four years for the Royals going 35-49 with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.417 WHIP. Burgos’ Mets career was marked by ineffectiveness, injury, and domestic violence.
After going 37-50 with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.421 WHIP in his five year major league career, Bannister had signed a two year deal to pitch for the Yomiuri Giants. Bannister would never pitch for the Giants. After an earthquake and tsunami hit Japan, Bannister retired from baseball. Since the 2015 season, the 35 year old Bannister has been a professional scout for the Boston Red Sox.
In 2003, Soler defected to the Dominican Republic from Cuba. The following year he would sign a three year $2.8 million contract with the New York Mets.
Soler would only pitch for the major league club in 2006. He would make eight starts highlighted by a complete game two hit shut out of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Unfortunately, the rest of his starts weren’t as great, and he would finish the year going 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.578 WHIP. His contract would expire at the end of the season, and the Mets would not re-sign him.
Soler would pitch in 14 games, mostly out of the bullpen, for the Pittsburgh Pirates AA affiliate in 2007. In the following two seasons, Soler would return to the tri-state area pitching for the Long Island Ducks and Newark Bears of the Independent Leagues. He would not pitch well at either stop, and no one would offer him a contract to play professional baseball in 2010. In 2011, he pitched in two games in the Puerto Rican Winter Leagues. Since that time, the 37 year old Soler has not pitched in professional baseball.
At this time, it is unknown as to what Soler has been doing in his post-baseball career.
What is known is that while the top prospects from the 2006 season largely did not pan out, then Mets GM Omar Minaya was able to utilize a number of the players to improve the 2006 and 2007 Mets teams that fell just short. This has left many fans wondering what would have happened if Milledge was moved at his peak value or what would have happened if Hernandez learned how to hit. Things may have gone very differently in both of those seasons.
Still, while you could call each of these prospects, save Gomez, a bust. It is notable that nine of the 10 players played in the major leagues for multiple seasons. Three of the players played in the postseason, and one won a World Series. There have been All Star appearances and a perfect game from this group. While you expected more, each player left their own mark on the Mets and the game of baseball.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors.
The first real playoff team Terry Collins managed with the Mets was in his first season with the team. It is hard to believe now, but that team was full of players that are now members, if not significant contributors, to teams that reached the postseason this year:
- Josh Thole – Toronto Blue Jays (not on the ALDS roster)
- Daniel Murphy – Washington Nationals
- Justin Turner – Los Angeles Dodgers
- David Wright – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
- Jose Reyes – New York Mets
- Angel Pagan – San Francisco Giants
- Carlos Beltran – Texas Rangers
- Lucas Duda – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
- R.A. Dickey – Toronto Blue Jays (not on the ALDS roster)
- Jon Niese – New York Mets (injured; not on the Wild Card Game roster)
Reading the names on that list, the two that immediately jump off the page are Murphy and Turner. They jump off the page for a myriad of reasons. The first reason is the two players are currently facing off against one another in the NLDS between the Dodgers and the Nationals. The series is tied at 1-1 in large part because Turner and Murphy have continued to be terrific postseason player.
Last year, Turner hit .526/.550/.842 with six doubles and four RBI against the Mets in the NLDS last year. Overall, in Turner’s postseason career, he is a .500/.538/.875 hitter with six doubles, one homer, and six RBI.
Murphy was the bat that helped carried the Mets to the World Series last year. In consecutive games, he hit homers off of Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks. He would also homer off Fernando Rodney in what was a stretch of six straight games with a home run. In addtion to the homers, Murphy’s going from first to third on a walk in Game Five of the NLDS helped changed the complexion of that game. Additionally, up until the World Series, he had played exceptional defense (which admittedly is a rarity for him). So far in the NLDS, Murphy is 4-6 with a walk and two RBI. The first of the two RBI was the go-ahead RBI in Game 2 of the NLDS.
Between Turner and Murphy, the Mets had at one time two second baseman who have established themselves to be extraordinarily clutch and terrific postseason players. They were also two players the Mets were eager to replace.
Turner was surprisingly non-tendered a contract after a 2013 season where he seemed to solidify himself as a utility or platoon player (at a minimum). Instead, the Mets let him go with rumors circulating that he was a me-first player that didn’t hustle. He was also characterized as a player that wasn’t progressing because he liked the night scene a little too much. He would go to Los Angeles and blossom as a player. The Mets internal replacement? Eric Campbell.
When Murphy became a free agent, the Mets first aggressively pursued Ben Zobrist. After failing to land him, the Mets quickly moved to trade for Neil Walker. At no time did the Mets even make Murphy an offer. Unlike Turner, Walker was an actual replacement with Walker having a great year for the Mets before needing season ending back surgery. However, despite how good Walker’s year was, he still wasn’t anywhere near was good as Murphy was for the Nationals.
It should never have come as a surprise that both of these players were gone because the Mets, under Sandy Alderson’s reign as General Manager, never really wanted either player. If you go back to that 2011 season, the Opening Day second baseman was Rule 5 Draft pick, Brad Emaus. After a couple of weeks of him struggling, the Mets moved on and finally went to Murphy and Turner at second base. Murphy would get the bulk of the playing time there until Ike Davis‘ ankle injury that allowed them to play side-by-side. With Davis’ healing up and being ready for the 2012 season, the Mets proceeded with Murphy as the second baseman and Turner as the utility player. As we know, that lasted just two year.
Ultimately, the Mets made the postseason this year without either player. And yes, both players got their first chance with the Mets. Quite possibly, neither player would be in the position they are in now without the Mets giving them a chance to prove they are major league players. However, the Mets also made clear they didn’t want either player starting all the way back in 2011 when they anointed Emaus the everyday second baseman. Eventually, the Mets would get their chance to move on, and they took advantage of that opportunity.
With that, Murphy and Turner are in the NLDS after the Mets lost the Wild Card Game with T.J. Rivera starting at second base. One of those two will be in the NLCS with a chance to go to the World Series, a position the Mets thought they were going to be in as the season started. With all that in mind, it begs the question: how much differently would the Mets season have gone if they had kept either Turner or Murphy?
One of the reasons the Mets went out and obtained Jay Bruce at the trade deadline is the team felt they needed another power bat in the lineup other than Yoenis Cespedes. Unfortunately, that trade hasn’t panned out well with Bruce hitting just .192/.271/.315 with just four homers and 11 RBI in 36 games as a Met. Worse yet, the Mets gave up Dilson Herrera, who could’ve taken over as the second baseman when Neil Walker required season ending back surgery and Wilmer Flores injured his neck.
Bruce’s struggles could be alleviated if the team was getting production at first base. However, James Loney has similarly struggled. Since the All Star Break, Loney is hitting .249/.276/.329 with only eight extra base hits in 51 games. These numbers are even worse when you consider Terry Collins has done all he could do to help Loney offensively by playing Flores at first against left-handed pitching. Worse yet, Loney’s reputation as a Gold Glove caliber first baseman has been greatly overblown. While defensive metrics for first base can be seen as imperfect, and cannot be fully trusted in a single season sample size, Loney has a -3.2 UZR and 0 DRS. Combining that with the prior two seasons, Loney has averaged a -2.4 UZR and a -1 DRS. Overall, these numbers speak to Loney’s lack of range and his failure to stretch on balls thrown to first base.
The solution to both of these problems would be Lucas Duda. In 2014, Duda beat out Ike Davis to become the Mets first baseman. In his two seasons as the Mets first baseman, Duda was a .249/.350/.483 hitter who averaged 28 homers and 82 RBI. Entering the season, Bruce was a .248/.319/.462 hitter who averages 26 homers and 80 RBI. Accordingly, Duda was a better power hitter and “run producer” who also got on base at a higher clip. Naturally, Duda far surpasses Loney has a hitter.
Defensively, Duda’s poor defensive reputation really rests on one bad throw in the World Series. Over his career, he has a 2.5 UZR and an 11 DRS. Over the two seasons he was the everyday first baseman, Duda averaged a 0.1 UZR and a 5 DRS. Using these advanced metrics, Duda is a much better defender than his reputation suggests, and he is a better defender than Loney. More importantly, as Keith Hernandez consistently pointed out over the past few seasons, Duda cheats to get to each and every ball thrown by an infielder. He stretches as far out as he can to help the Mets get the out calls on the close calls at first base.
Offensively and defensively, Duda is exactly what this Mets team needs for the stretch run and the postseason. Unfortunately, Duda suffered a stress fracture in his lower back. With a few setbacks during his rehabilitation, Duda was supposed to be gone for the season.
As it turns out, he wasn’t. Duda was able to get enough stationary bike riding and batting practice in for the Mets to feel comfortable activating him from the disabled list on Saturday. Even better, he got the surprise start on Sunday.
He would go 0-2 with a strikeout looking rusty at the plate. He was eventually lifted for Asdrubal Cabrera when the Twins brought in the left-handed Buddy Boshers to pitch the sixth. In the field, Duda was back to his normal form stretching out to give his team the best chance possible to get the base runner.
Getting on the field was a good start. However, if the Mets are going to make a run in the postseason, they will need Duda’s bat. There are 13 games left in the season for him to get into form. Hopefully, Collins will give him every opportunity to get going before the Wild Card Game.
If so, we have seen a hot Duda bat carry the Mets for long stretches. It just might carry the Mets to the World Series.
After Terry Collins stated he doesn’t believe the prognosis of Lucas Duda‘s back is good, it has caused many to speculate on how the Mets will proceed in fulfilling the first base vacancy. Many of those thoughts are creative as the Mets may need to get creative to fill the void. Unfortunately, most of the suggestions will not work. Here’s why:
Move Michael Conforto to 1B
The thinking here is Michael Conforto was deemed to have all the tools to be a great 1B by his biggest fan – Keith Hernandez. This move would allow Juan Lagares and Alejandro De Aza to platoon in CF while moving Yoenis Cespedes to LF.
Admittedly, this sounds great. It’ll improve both the offense and the defense. However, the problem is the Mets never even sought to have Conforto to play RF. Why should we now believe they’re willing to move him to the infield mid-season. They’re not.
Move Alejandro De Aza to 1B
This one makes sense as De Aza is languishing away on the bench. He went from a platoon player to a fifth outfielder with the Cespedes signing. However, he hasn’t played there in over a decade, and he has just recently started working with Tim Teufel to get acclimated to first. He needs more than a week to get ready.
Slide David Wright to 1B
The idea here is David Wright is better suited to first now with his back and throwing issues. In actuality next to catcher, first is the last position Wright should play. The amount of twisting and stretching involved is harder on the lower back and would only exacerbate his stenosis. Furthermore, even if he could play first base, all you’ve accomplished is reshuffling the deck chairs as you’ve now moved the hole to third instead of first.
Slide Neil Walker to 1B
In this scenario, the Mets move Neil Walker to first and call up Dilson Herrera to play second. The argument is this is exactly what the Mets would do if they had Daniel Murphy.
The problem with that thinking is Walker isn’t Murphy. Walker has never played first base in the majors. He last played first in AAA in 2009 and that was only for seven games. It’s not fair to expect him to be able to slide over with no preparation. It’s also not fair to add more things to his plate while he’s in the midst of a bad slump.
Move Asdrubal Cabrera to 1B
The thought is Asdrubal Cabrera was once a utility player who is capable of playing multiple positions. In addition, the Mets have Matt Reynolds on the roster who is a SS. There are two problems here. First, Cabrera is one of the few Mets producing day in and day out. You don’t want to mess with that especially when he’s never played first. Second, Reynolds was in the middle of a slump in AAA, and he hasn’t shown any signs he’s getting out of it in his limited major league duty.
Move Kevin Plawecki to 1B
This is a holdover from Spring Training when the Mets were looking for ways to keep both of their young catchers in the lineup while letting Duda sit against lefties. Doing this now would also open up more playing time for Rene Rivera, who has shown himself to be a terrific catcher.
The problem is this really damages your offense. Kevin Plawecki has hit .203/.300/.291 this year. Rivera is a career .209/.258/.329 hitter. It’s one thing to have either one of them in the lineup. It’s a whole other thing to have both of them in the lineup.
Call Up Dom Smith
The thinking here is if the Mets don’t have the answer at the major league level, they should go into the minor leagues to solve their problems. Who better than one of, if not the, best Mets prospect. The problem is he’s just not ready. He’s only played 41 games in AA. While the obvious counter-argument is Conforto, it must be noted, Conforto was much further along in his development offensively.
Call Up Brandon Nimmo
The thought process here is Brandon Nimmo is absolutely raking in AAA right now. He’s on an eight game hitting streak that’s seen him hit .364/.462/.636 with three doubles, three triples, and six RBI. While he has played CF almost exclusively, he should be athletic enough to play first. While these are valid points, it should be noted he’s never played first, and like with Conforto, the Mets do not appear inclined to let either one play first.
Trade for Yangervis Solarte
Yangervis Solarte makes a lot of sense for the Mets. He can not only play first, but he can also play third. In his career, he’s also played at second, short, and left. In essence, he’s a much better version of Eric Campbell. In his first full major league season last year, he hit .270/.320/.428. He’s hitting .250/.379/.375 this year. This is all the more impressive when you consider he plays most of his games at Petco.
Here’s the rub. The Padres have no incentive to trade him. He’s not arbitration eligible until 2017, and he can’t become a free agent until 2020. If the Mets were inclined to even trade for Solarte, it’s going to come at a high cost, and the Mets most desirable trade assets were traded away last year. No, if the Mets do make a move your looking at the In the interim, the Mets can inquire about the Kelly Johnsons and Ike Davises of the world.
Overall, that’s the issue. The Mets don’t have what it takes right now to address the first base position internally or externally. Although, the idea of having Travis d’Arnaud work at first during his rehab assignment is intriguing given his shoulder problems and injury history (hat tip Brian Mangan). However, short of that happening, it’s more of the same for the Mets.
This means Campbell is your everyday first baseman until Flores comes off the DL. At that point, the Mets will probably go with Flores until Duda is healthy. Ultimately, Duda needs to be the answer there because in reality any other solution is unrealistic or just a question mark.
When Sandy Alderson, J.P. Riccardi, and Paul DePodesta were first hired by the Mets, everyone assumed the Mets were going to be recreated in the image of the high OBP Scott Hatteberg Oakland Athletics teams.
However, upon reflection of what the Alderson regime has done here, the team has been more focused upon power than they’ve been on OBP. That philosophy was on display last year when Yoenis Cespedes came aboard, and it’s on display again this year:
17 HR by the @Mets in their last 5 games is their most in a 5-game span
Previous: 16 (last season)@EliasSports pic.twitter.com/4NuSWA4t65
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 20, 2016
Over the offseason, the Mets brought in three players to play everyday. There was the aforementioned Cespedes with his career .320 OBP. Cespedes also hit 35 homeruns last year while slugging .612 as a Met. Neil Walker has a career .336 OBP, but he averages 16 homeruns per year. He led all Major League second basemen in homeruns last year. Asdrubal Cabrera was signed to be the new shortstop. He has a career .329 OBP, but he did hit 15 homeruns last year.
That’s not to suggest the Mets do not value OBP. This is the same team that did choose Lucas Duda over Ike Davis, in part because Duda got on base more frequently. Rather, it shows the Mets put more emphasis on homerun power than OBP. The Mets aren’t looking to clog the bases and manufacture runs. Rather, they are looking for players that can change an inning or a game with one swing of the bat.
This shouldn’t surprise anyone.
Let’s re-examine that fabled 2002 Oakland Athletics Moneyball team. As we know, they actively sought out players like Hatteberg because they were undervalued and could get on base. That year, the Athletics ranked fourth in the AL and seventh in the majors in OBP. The same year, the Athletics ranked fourth in the majors (and the AL) in homeruns. While the Athletics no longer had Jason Giambi, one through nine, their lineup still had players that could hit the longball. The OBP got the headlines because it was a shift in how people viewed baseball, but the homeruns are what powered that Athletics offense.
The Athletics being powered by the longball wasn’t anything new or groundbreaking. It was what powered the Athletics when Alderson was the GM. From 1988 – 1990, the Athletics went to three World Series winning one. In 1988, the Athletics were ranked second in the majors and the AL in homeruns. Their rankings slipped in 1989 to seventh in the AL and eleventh in the majors, in part due to injuries like Jose Canseco‘s wrist, but the Athletics rose back up the ranks in 1989. In 1989, the Athletics were ranked third in the AL and fourth in the majors in homeruns.
Overall, Sandy Alderson, J.P. Riccardi, and Paul DePodesta have built teams that hit homeruns. Even if everyone expected different, this regime is doing what they’ve always done, and that’s building an offense based on their batters hitting homeruns. By the way, when they’ve successfully accomplished this goal, they’ve won a lot of games and went to the postseason.
The worst thing that can happen to the Mets is them losing one of their pitchers for any period of time. With Matt Harvey‘s undisclosed and unknown medical situation, this fear is now a reality.
The scary part about it is how it has escalated. First, the Mets assumed he was hung over. Then, they thought it wouldn’t prevent him from making his next Spring Training start. Now, he’s flying back to New York for further examination. He’s most likely going to miss Opening Day. The players don’t know what’s going on, and they are praying for him.
The only thing we do know is Harvey’s arm is fine, or as only Terry Collins can put it, “His arm is fine! His arm is fine! Ok? His arm is fine.” This is leading to speculation as to what is wrong with Harvey, and there is no shortage of opinions.
This is because no one knows what’s happening. Part of that is HIPAA laws. Part of that is the Mets making an announcement before having all of the information. A large part of it is Harvey’s Bravo appearance and general assumptions fans have about him.
Hopefully, this is a relatively minor issue not only because of the Mets season, but more importantly, this is a man’s health we are talking about here. With that said, I’m reminded of other instances where a player’s health has postponed, derailed, or ended a player’s career.
As Mets fans, we have seen our fair share of problems. There was Ike Davis‘ bout with Valley Fever. Jose Reyes was found to have a thyroid condition. Just last year, there was David Wright and his spinal stenosis diagnosis. Elsewhere, there have been far more life threatening medical issues.
Jon Lester battled lymphoma before coming back and winning the clincher of the 2004 World Series. Brian Picolo would go from an NFL player to dying from cancer. There was also the day fifteen years ago when Magic Johnson retired from the NBA when he discovered he contracted HIV.
We don’t know what Harvey’s medical issue is. We may never know. The only thing we do know is no one wants to see something happen that will not only forever alter Harvey’s career, but also his life. So while we know his arm is alright, we don’t know if he’s alright. We don’t know what, if any effect, this will all have on his career.
Like Travis d’Arnaud and the rest of the Mets, all we can do is pray that Harvey will be alright.
Editor’s Note: this article first appeared on metsmerizedonline.com
I remember years ago the Milwaukee Brewers carried a relief pitcher by the name of Brooks Kieschnick. He failed as an everyday player, so he returned to becoming a pitcher as he was in college. He then became an average (at best) reliever, pinch hitter, and DH.
I believe this could and should be Ike Davis‘ future in the major leagues. He once was extremely promising as a good defensive slugging first baseman. It may just be the Valley Fever, but he never fulfilled that promise. The Mets gave up on him and traded him to the Pirates. The A’s purchased him in the offseason from the Pirates. After a forgettable year, the A’s decided not to tender him a contract making him a free agent.
Actually, forgettable was the wrong word because Davis had a memorable relief appearance:
It was a long time ago, but Davis was a college pitcher, who had a 2.25 ERA at Arizona State. In his lone relief appearance, he fastball hit 88 MPH and he appeared to have a slider. If Davis works at it, it’s possible he could have the type of stuff he once had:
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/590837222116610049
I’m not saying it’s likely, but it is possible that Davis could make himself an effective reliever and/or LOOGY. Considering the fact that he hit .229/.301/.350 last year, I’m not sure how many teams want him as a first baseman anymore. Why not become a reliever. If he succeeds in the conversion, he becomes quite a weapon.
First of all, a team can never have enough relievers. Guys who can get lefties out will always have value. Furthermore, for all of his faults, we know he has power. He could be a viable pinch hitter or a DH in the event he’s pitched too many days in a row. With his glove, he could play first in an emergency situation.
Now, this only makes sense if he comes back on a minor league deal. You don’t want to waste a spot on the 40 man roster if he can’t hack it. I’d extend the minor league offer with an invitation to Speing Training as a reliever. If he can do it, great. If not, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
As a reliever on a minor league deal, I like Ike again.