Hansel Robles
Earlier posts addressed the Mets postseason pitching experience as well as the Dodgers postseason offense. While it is interesting to see how theses players fared in October’s past, I’m more interested in seeing how the Mets pitchers have performed against the Dodgers (* – not on team, ** – not on projected roster):
July 3, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Noah Syndergaard ND, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Hansel Robles W, 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia S, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K
July 4, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Matt Harvey L, 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4
Alex Torres* 1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres** 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
June 5, 2015 Dodger Stadium
Steven Matz W, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Logan Verrett** S, 3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
July 23, 2015 Citi Field
Bartolo Colon L, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Sean Gilmartin, 0 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres** 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
July 24, 2015 Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Carlos Torres** 3.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Hansel Robles 2.0 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July 25, 2015 Citi Field
Matt Harvey W, 7.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Jenrry Mejia* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
July 26, 2015 Citi Field
Jacob deGrom ND, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Jeurys Familia, BS, 1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Jenrry Mejia, W, 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Cumulative
Here are the cumulative stats for the pitchers who are projected to make the playoff roster:
Noah Syndergaard, 0-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 6 K
Matt Harvey 1-1, 12.0 IP, 13 H, 5 ER, 6 BB, 8 K
Steven Matz 1-0, 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Bartolo Colon 0-1, 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
Jon Niese 0-1, 3.0 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Jacob deGrom 0-0, 7.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 8 K
Hansel Robles 1-0, 4.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K
Jeurys Familia S, BS, 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 3 K
Sean Gilmartin 1.0 IP, 3 H, 2 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Overall, with the exception of Niese, who will not start in the NLDS, have pitched well against the Dodgers. The Mets pitchers faced most of the Dodgers batters they will face in the playoffs. These stats give me confidence the Mets can win this series.
Well, it seems I was wrong about Eric Young, Jr. I can’t say I am too upset about it. It seems like the last man on the roster will be Kirk Nieuwenhuis, although I still think Dilson Herrera is getting a long look as he’s not on the taxi squad.
With that said, here’s my re-revised NLDS roster projection.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. David Wright
6. Ruben Tejada
7. Wilmer Flores
8. Kelly Johnson
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Yoenis Cespedes
11. Curtis Granderson
12. Michael Cuddyer
13. Juan Lagares
14. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Sundergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Erik Goeddel
25. Sean Gilmartin
If he’s healthy, and he won’t be, Juan Uribe would replace Nieuwenhuis. Also, I’m not putting Steven Matz on my projected roster because he didn’t pitch. If I hear differently with the Instructuonal League appearance, I may still leave him off the projected roster.
I can’t trust the Mets to be honest on the topic. If I’m convinced, then I would slot him in the rotation moving Colon to the bullpen. That would then bump Gilmartin from the roster.
I’m not calling this 2.0. To me that would indicate that I will make a number of changes, but I wanted to show you my work product. There’s nothing wrong with that, but that’s not my intention when I share my projections.
However, there has been another major development with Steven Matz‘s back. As I said yesterday, I was not going to trust he was going to pitch until he actually pitches.
Catchers
1. Travis d’Arnaud
2. Kevin Plawecki
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
4. Daniel Murphy
5. Kelly Johnson
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
8. Wilmer Flores
Outfielders
9. Michael Conforto
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
13. Curtis Granderson
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Starting Pitchers
15. Jacob deGrom
16. Noah Syndergaard
17. Matt Harvey
18. Bartolo Colon
Relief Pitchers
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Addison Reed
21. Tyler Clippard
22. Hansel Robles
23. Jon Niese
24. Sean Gilmartin
25. Erik Goeddel
As you can see, the only change I made between the projections was exchanging Matz for Goeddel. I chose Goeddel because he’s been pretty good lately, and he can generate strikeouts with his splitter.
I still think there are two other players under consideration: Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Dilson Herrera. Kirk has been good lately, has some power, can run, and can play all three OF positions. However, since he’s a left handed bat going into a series with a lot of LHP, I don’t think the Mets will put him on the roster.
I think Dilson is getting consideration because he’s a right handed bat and definitively the team’s best defensive second baseman. With Flores’ back injury, Herrera is a definite possibility. What hurts him most is he only plays 2B. As I said in another post, the presence of Murphy and Johnson could alleviate those concerns.
However, for right now, I think the Mets give EY the edge, especially because he’s a Terry Collins favorite. If anything else happens, I’ll put out another revised projection.
In an effort to pitch in the playoffs, Jon Niese volunteered to pitch in the bullpen. His first two appearances did not go well, but not all hope is lost. There are still some reasons why the Mets may want him on the NLDS roster, namely:
I think this is why Jon Niese will be on the postseason roster.
Chase Utley: 3 for 32 against him
Adrian Gonzalez: 0 for 9 against him
— Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) October 1, 2015
With those numbers against the Dodgers best hitter, there’s a spot for you on the team. He would most likely get the call when/if Gonzalez is up in a big spot.
Here’s his head-to-head data against some of the other Dodger players:
Jimmy Rollins 12-54, 3 doubles, 4 walks, 8 strikeouts
Carl Crawford 0-3
Andre Ethier 4-10, 2 strikeouts
A.J.Ellis 2-11, 1 double, two walks, 1 strikeout
Chris Heisey 3-10, 1 homerun, 1 strikeout
Howie Kendrick 1-7, 1 strikeout
Basically, he pitched pretty well against them. If not for 2015 arguably being his worst year and the presence of better options, you could make the argument he could start.
Besides his success against the Dodgers, Steven Matz has been dealing with a balky back. This means the Mets will need to have Bartolo Colon start Game Four or be ready to pitch in Game Four if Marz goes down. This means Niese may need to be ready as the long man in Colon’s stead
The other reason why he may be out there is the Mets don’t have a true LOOGY. They’re going to need someone to get those lefties out in the NLDS, and I’m not sure they’re going to trust Hansel Robles, even if he has the best numbers against lefties. If you’re going to insist on a lefty against a lefty, you might as well use one who’s had success against the Dodgers.
With three games left, there’s not much time to get him fully up to speed in the bullpen. At best, he probably can pitch in two more games. No matter what happens in those games, it will be a gamble to put Niese in the bullpen.
I’ll take that gamble over the gamble of having someone else pitching to Gonzalez in a big spot.
Sure, the Mets are seeking Homefield advantage in the NLDS, but more importantly, they want to enter the postseason healthy. Tonight, the Mets health was seriously called into question with one pitch:
Yoenis Cespedes leaves game after getting hit in hand by pitch.
He has 34 XBH since August 1, 2nd-most in MLB (Matt Carpenter 35)
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) October 1, 2015
For an eternity (which is how long this game seemed to last), we waited for the result of Yoenis Cespedes‘ x-ray:
https://twitter.com/bbtn/status/649398261967659008
Whew! In the meantime, the Phillies hit two more batters before the Mets bothered to retaliate. After the retaliation, and the benches were warned, Hansel Robles threw one near Cameron Rupp‘s head. Note, I don’t think it was intentional, and Ruf swing at it. However, Robles was tossed and:
When benches cleared, Cespedes came in from clubhouse & tried to go on-field. Pat Roessler grabbed his shirt & got him back in dugout. Smart
— Steve Gelbs (@SteveGelbs) October 1, 2015
There was no fight, but I’m still happy the Mets held him back. The rest of the game was just bad baseball and bad news:
Wilmer Flores left this game with lower back stiffness, not illness as originally thought. So not all good news for #Mets.
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) October 1, 2015
On top of the injuries, a series of relievers, including Jon Niese and Dario Alvarez, showed why they should not be on the postseason roster. It took them five pitchers, including Robles, to get through the sixth. They entered the inning up 5-3 and left it down 6-5.
The Mets would lose by the score of 7-5. At least they came out of the game almost intact. Tomorrow’s game is at 12:05. Hopefully, there will be no carry over from Robles’ last pitch.
Look, this is Sandy Alderson’s team. He decided to keep the players he kept and trade the players he traded. He pulled off the trades and signed the free agents. However, he was able to do a lot of what he did because he was left with good players after Omar Minaya was terminated.
Here are the players in the 40 man roster who have a link to Omar Minaya (asterisked players are players obtained with players combined by Minaya and Alderson):
Jerry Blevins – obtained for 2010 draft pick Matt den Dekker.
Eric Campbell – 2008 draft pick.
Darrell Ceciliani – 2009 draft pick.
Travis d’Arnaud – part of the R.A. Dickey trade. Dickey was a free agent signing. Josh Thole was a 2005 draft pick. Mike Nickeas was initially obtained by trade in 2006.
Jacob deGrom – 2010 draft pick.
Lucas Duda – 2007 draft pick.
Jeurys Familia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Wilmer Flores – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Erik Goeddel – 2010 draft pick.
Matt Harvey – 2010 draft pick
Dilson Herrera* – part of Marlon Byrd/John Buck trade. Buck was part of the Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Juan Lagares – 2006 amateur free agent signing.
Steven Matz – 2009 draft pick.
Jenrry Mejia – 2007 amateur free agent signing.
Akeel Morris -2010 draft pick.
Daniel Murphy – 2006 draft pick.
Bobby Parnell – 2005 draft pick.
Addison Reed* – obtained in exchange for Matt Koch and Miller Diaz (signed by Mets in 2009).
Hansel Robles – 2008 amateur free agent.
Noah Syndergaard – part of Dickey trade (see d’Arnaud).
Ruben Tejada – 2006 amateur free agent.
Again, these players are in the roster because Alderson kept them. The decision of who to keep and trade is important. That is what makes them Alderson’s players and team. Additionally, while It was Alderson that hired Terry Collins, it was Minaya who brought him into the Mets organization.
However, it is important to truly acknowledge Minaya’s role, especially when he has been unfairlyand wrongly marginalized.
You see I was on the same Jet Blue flight as Omar Minaya. The photo with this post was Minaya and me in the terminal before the flight. He was accessible to Mets fans who wanted to shake his hand and take a picture. No one, and I mean no one, had the “courage” to mock him on the flight.
Additionally, this should dispel the notion that Minaya left the Mets with a depleted farm system. On the contrary, he built a strong farm system that helped make up this team. Minaya had his faults, and he probably deserved to be fired when he was. That doesn’t mean we should ignore his work.
It doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t extend our gratitude to him for what he left behind.
I thought I knew Jon Niese. I thought he was the guy who was weak mentally and made excuses for his poor outings. After the Mets clinched, we found out he’s a guy that will do whatever he can to win:
Jon Niese approached Terry Collins about pitching out of the bullpen — not the other way around. He'll start doing so this week. #Mets
— Anthony DiComo (@AnthonyDiComo) September 27, 2015
Niese has been a starter for his entire career. He made his one and only relief appearance in 2011. This is no small gesture on his part even if he knows it’s his only chance to be on the playoff roster. If he does make the roster, what will his bullpen role be?
Well, for starters, we know, he won’t be a set up guy for Jeurys Familia. Those roles are firmly in the hands of Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard (back willing). If either of them faulter, the Mets could go with multiple inning appearances from Familia or go to Hansel Robles. That means the bullpen spots remaining are long man and LOOGY.
I’m not sure he qualifies as a LOOGY. For his career, lefties hit .262/.314/.397 off of him. This year lefties are hitting .285/.325/.431 off of him. By comparison, lefties are hitting .169/.217/.351 off of Robles. I’m not sure if Terry Collins would be willing to use Robles as a LOOGY in the playoffs.
He may feel inclined to use the only effective lefty reliever he has: Sean Gilmartin. He’s been better than Niese against lefties, but not by much. Lefties hit .264/.316/.341 off of him. It’s probably one of the reasons he became the long man. Gilmartin and Niese will face some competition for that role against Bartolo Colon.
Unlike Colon, Niese is moving to the bullpen now. It’s possible with him being able to max out for one inning, he will be much better against lefties. He may be better against righties for that matter. Niese has occasionally liked to drop his arm angle. If some effectively, he could be another Pedro Feliciano. If not, at least he tried.
Honestly, I hope he makes it. Of all the pitchers on the Mets staff, he’s been here the longest. I’m glad he’s getting his chance. I hope he makes the most of it.
Now that the Mets have clinched the NL East, the time is fast approaching to set the NLDS roster. Keep in mind, this is for the NLDS only. The Mets can the roster if they advance to the NLCS.
I’ve made some changes to my prior analysis. The reason is due to injuries to players like Juan Uribe. Another reason was the possibility that Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon may move to the bullpen.
Note, this is not what I would do, but rather, what I think the Mets will do. I am taking into consideration the Dodgers lefty heavy starting rotation and lineup. Without further ado, here’s my best guess:
Catchers
Infielders
3. Lucas Duda
6. David Wright
7. Ruben Tejada
Outfielders
10. Michael Cuddyer
11. Yoenis Cespedes
12. Juan Lagares
Pinch Runner
14. Eric Young, Jr.
Rotation
15. Matt Harvey
16. Jacob deGrom
17. Noah Syndergaard
18. Steven Matz
Bullpen
19. Jeurys Familia
20. Tyler Clippard
21. Addison Reed
22. Hansel Robles
23. Sean Gilmartin
24. Jon Niese
25. Bartolo Colon
I’m not 100% confident in this. I could see Uribe getting healthy enough to play knocking EY, Lagares, or Johnson out of the lineup. With all the lefties, I could see Eric Campbell or Dilson Herrera (3-4 with a walk, a homer, two runs, and a two RBIs on Sunday) making the team as well.
I also think there is real competition and consideration for the last three bullpen spots. Erik Goeddel has been great all year (when healthy). Carlos Torres is a Terry Collins’ favorite, who may make the team if healthy. Logan Verrett has made his car all year bouncing between starting and reliever. If Colon takes Matz’s spot in the rotation, there will be more bullpen spots because the Mets won’t put Matz in the bullpen.
No matter who is on the roster I’m excited for the playoffs again. Lets Go Mets!
Well so much for the narrative that Noah Syndergaard can’t pitch on the road. He was so great tonight Keith was wondering if Thor was the best Mets pitcher.
Thor was consistently around 98 MPH. Not topping off at 98, consistently at 98. His final line was 7.2 innings, 5 hits, 2 ER, 0 BB, and 11 Ks. Thor wasn’t touched until the seventh and after his 100th pitch.
Offensively, Lucas Duda was awesome. He went 2-4 with two three run homeruns. The second homerun landed at the same Louisville Slugger facility where his bat was made.
Curtis Granderson added his own three run homerun in the eighth to make the score 12-0. Granderson finished the night 2-5 with a double, the aforementioned homer, 2 runs, and 4 RBIs. Overall, the Mets offense had a second straight great night. Daniel Murphy went 2-4 with an RBI double and a run scored.
The only starters without a hit was the red hot Ruben Tejada and the ice cold Travis d’Arnaud. In fact, they were the only starters without a multiple hit game, Thor included.
Tonight would’ve been a laugher except for Juan Uribe seemingly reinjuring himself. He was pinch hitting for David Wright, which was the right move. However, with these expanded rosters and a 12-0 score, it should’ve been Eric Campbell, who wound up finishing the at bat. Honestly, I don’t know why the Mets did it.
It was almost a laugher too because Eric O’Flaherty and Bobby Parnell had trouble getting the last out in the eighth. When Thor left the game, it was 12-1 with a runner on. By the time Parnell finally got the last out it was 12-4. Tim Stauffer gave up a ninth inning homerun and could t get the last out. This trio was so bad that Hansel Robles had to come into the game to end the nonsense and finally secure the 12-5 win.
With the Mets winning and the Nationals losing, the Mets can clinch tomorrow with Matt Harvey on the mound. It just seems fitting, doesn’t it?
There are a number of stages to a player’s career. The first is when you’re called up and you’re learning. The second is when the league finds out more about you and adjusts. The most important is how that player responds.
It seems we’re at the response stage for Hansel Robles and his quick pitch. The league seems to have adjusted to the quick pitch with incessant whining causing the umpires to have to intervene. Usually, the umpire would call it a no pitch, but for the first time yesterday, the umpire ruled the pitch to be a ball. Under the rules, the umpire has that right.
The issue then becomes what exactly is a quick pitch? Reading the MLB rules is like reading any modern statute. It’s needlessly long and open to interpretation. I can best sum it up as a quick pitch is a pitch made when it is purposefully made when the pitcher knows the batter isn’t ready. Talk about open to interpretation.
In theory, the hold plate umpire is supposed to hold time until the batter is set in the box. Once the umpire let’s gameplay resume, the pitcher should then be able to throw a pitch. Therein lies the problem. Each time Robles has been called for a quick pitch, time was in. The umpire already judged the batter to be ready. Therefore, how could that same umpire call a ball? He’s already determined the batter ready, so how could that same batter be “off guard?”
Batters don’t like being rushed, so they’ll do anything to slow the game down. The best tactic they have at their disposal is whining. They’re doing it now with Robles, and they’re succeeding. I’m glad Collins argued last night. There needs to be a clear bright-line rule. The Mets need to get a conference call with MLB and the umpires to figure it out.
Absent that, Robles should keep doing what he does best, which is quick pitch. He just needs to be cognizant not to do it with three balls in the count so as not to award a walk. If he does quick pitch again, and it’s called a ball, he needs to collect himself better than he did last night. That’s the real adjustment needed.
He’s an important part of this bullpen in the playoffs, so he better figure it out quickly.