Gabriel Ynoa

Implications of the Giants-Cardinals Series

Tonight, the St. Louis Cardinals head out west to begin a pivotal four game series against the San Francisco Giants that will have far reaching implications on the National League Wild Card race.  With each game played, the Mets will both gain ground on one team and lose ground to another.  As the series begins, here is where the Wild Card race stands:

Record GB
Giants 77-68 + 0.5
Mets 77-69
Cardinals 76-69 0.5

With the Mets being idle, one of two things are going to happen today: (1) they are going to be tied with the Giants for the first Wild Card; or (2) they are going to be tied with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card.  As we can see from that, this four game set between the Giants and Cardinals can be both a blessing and a curse that makes you question what result you want from this four game set.

Case for the San Francisco Giants

Each generation of Mets fan has a tale of woe that has come at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals.  There was the Terry Pendleton home run off Roger McDowell in 1987, and Carlos Beltran looking at an Adam Wainwright curveball in 2006.  There have been many other instances, and if history is any evidence, there will be more.  It is quite understandable if Mets fans do not want to see a Cardinals uniform in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game.

There are other baseball reasons to want to face the Giants over the Cardinals.  Since the All Star Break, the Giants have had the worst record in all of baseball.  The Giants ace, Madison Bumgarner, has struggled in the second half going 4-5 with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.200 WHIP.  The last time Bumgarner pitched against the Giants he only lasted five innings allowing six hits, four runs, four earned, and three walks while striking out six.  Bumgarner isn’t the only Giants star that has struggled in the second half.

Buster Posey is amidst the worst year in his career which hast mostly been the result of him hitting .274/.352/.366 with only one home run in the second half.  Posey is a major reason why the Giants have scored the third least runs in the National League after the All Star Break.  You would have to like the Mets chances against this lineup when they are hopefully sending Noah Syndergaard to the mound.

Even if the Giants were to get a lead on the Mets in the Wild Card Game, it will not be a safe lead for the Giants whose bullpen has completely fallen apart.  Santiago Casilla has lost his closer’s job.  Joe Nathan was given a chance, but only proved why he was a 41 year old pitcher in the minors this year.  Hunter Strickland crashed and burned in his first chance to take over the closer’s position.  Fact is, the Giants don’t have a bullpen that can protect a lead which is really dangerous against a Mets team that has Yoenis Cespedes ready, willing, and able to hit a clutch home run late in the game.

In addition to the Giants falling apart, the Mets could very well have more trouble with the Cardinals.  Yadier Molina is a Mets killer.  Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk give the Mets fits.  While the Cardinals rotation has been a big disappointment this season, Carlos Martinez has pitched like an ace this year.  In his career, he is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA against the Mets.  If the Cardinals get a lead, Seung-hwan Oh has shown himself to be a dominant closer.  Given the past history, and how poorly the Mets matchup against the Cardinals, they would be better off facing the Giants.

Case for the St. Louis Cardinals

We can saw all we want about Madison Bumgarner having a tough second half, and it is true.  However, under no circumstances do you want to face him in a winner-take-all game.  You just have to go to the 2014 Postseason video for proof of that.  In the Wild Card Game, he pitched a complete game shutout.  In Game 7 of the World Series, he came out of the bullpen to pitch five shutout innings to earn the save.  In his postseason career, he is 7-3 with a 2.14 ERA and a 0.883 WHIP.  You don’t want to be anywhere near him.  In addition to this, many people will tell you that you don’t want to face the Giants because it is an even-numbered year.

No matter how much better the Mets may matchup against the Cardinals, you always want to avoid an ace like Bumgarner in the postseason.  Pitching wins, and the Cardinals have no one on the level of Bumgarner.

Case for a Split

A sweep at the hands of the other could bury one of the Wild Card contenders.  The corollary to that is it will rejuvenate one of the two Wild Card contenders.  As it stands, the Giants and Cardinals have seemingly had trouble getting out of their own way.  If either team was able to sweep or take three out of four in the series, it will be a significant mental boost that could lead to them playing better baseball from here on out.  Ideally, the Mets do not want to face a hot team in that Wild Card game.

Ideally, the Mets would also have homefield in the Wild Card Game.  Unless, the Mets sweep the Twins, which may proven to be more difficult than it should be with Gabriel Ynoa potentially slated to go Sunday, the Mets will trail one of these two teams for home field in the Wild Card race.  As of right now, the Mets do not have any teams over .500 remaining on their schedule.  If the Mets take care of business, they should be able to earn a Wild Card spot not matter what happens in the Giants-Cardinals series.

As it stands, the Mets would probably want to face the Giants, and they would want to face them at home.  However, baseball is an unpredictable game, and as we have learned far too often, you should be careful for what you wish for.

 

 

Terry Collins’ Decision of the Game – Rafael Montero

This one was obvious to everyone except Terry Collins. 

In Rafael Montero‘s last start, he only lasted 4.1 innings against the Reds allowing three runs while walking four. In the start before that it was a minor miracle he allowed no runs against the Marlins despite walking six over five innings. By any measure, Montero had no business starting against the Washington Nationals yesterday. 

This would be the Collins’ decision of the game except there is the possibility the choice to start Montero tonight was either a collaborative decision or a decision made by the front office. 

Giving Collins the benefit of the doubt here, the decision of the game was not pinch hitting for Montero in the top of the second inning. 

At that time, the Mets were only down 2-1. However, they were down 2-1 because Montero issued not one, but two . . . TWO! . . . bases loaded walks. Realistically, the Mets could’ve been trailing by a lot more than one run with the way Montero pitched in a 37 pitch first inning. 

Another factor was there was a runner in scoring position with two outs. You know Montero isn’t bringing that run home.  Sure, you normally wouldn’t want to go to your bench that early in the game, but there are expanded rosters. You’re not going to run out of pinch hitters with the following available:

  1. Michael Conforto
  2. Brandon Nimmo
  3. Alejandro De Aza
  4. T.J. Rivera
  5. Matt Reynolds
  6. Gavin Cecchini
  7. Ty Kelly
  8. Eric Campbell

That gives the Mets one pinch hitter for every inning for the rest of the game. Keep in mind, this list doesn’t include the backup catchers Rene Rivera and Kevin Plawecki

Collins might’ve said differently in the post game, but the bullpen shouldn’t have been a consideration. Gabriel Ynoa and Sean Gilmartin were fairly rested and capable of pitching multiple innings. Same goes for Hansel Robles. Also, it’s important to note the Mets only needed to find five innings because if it was close, the Mets were going Fernando SalasAddison ReedJeurys Familia to close out the game anyway. 

With September call-ups, the Mets had the depth to handle Collins lifting Montero. More importantly, with the Mets amidst the Wild Card race, they can ill-afford to give Montero a second inning because it could cost you the game. 

Collins didn’t lift Montero, and he imploded in the second. It was not a result that was all that surprising. It was a result that helped cost the Mets the game. It was another poor managerial decision by Collins. 

Rafael Montero Was Rafael Montero

Pick your reason why the Mets lost this game. 

The first and obvious one was Rafael Montero. Montero’s final line was 1.2 innings, five hits, six runs, six earned, four walks, and two strikeouts. He probably wasn’t even that good either. 

The sequence that perfectly sums up the night Montero had, as well as his Mets career, was his walking Bryce Harper and Wilson Ramos with the bases loaded in the first inning. 

Remarkably, Collins saw those 37 pitches and thought, “I want to see more of that!” Actually, you know what, it wasn’t all that surprising. Collins passed over a chance to hit for him in the second inning so he could get two more outs out of Montero before going to a rested Gabriel Ynoa or Sean Gilmartin. They’d eventually come into the game along with the other long man Logan Verrett

For what it’s worth, Ynoa was roughed up as well pitching two innings allowing three hits, two runs, two earned, and two walks with one strikeout. 

If Jacob deGrom or Steven Matz cannot come back quickly, the Mets are in trouble because they cannot keep doing this three more times this season. They probably can’t afford to do this even one more time. 

Through Montero’s horrendous outing, you lose just how bad the Mets offense was.  It’s quite easy to forget the Mets had a 1-0 lead with Yoenis Cespedes hitting an RBI groundout to score Jose Reyes, who had led off the game with a double. After that, the Mets did nothing against Mat Latos and the Nationals bullpen. 

In fact, with Latos homering off Montero to lead off the second, he allowed as many runs as he knocked in. The only reason he didn’t get the win is he left the game early due to injury. 

The Mets didn’t deserve to win this one, and they didn’t look like a team that was fighting for a Wild Card. To rub salt in the wound, Daniel Murphy was 3-5 with a double. Meanwhile, Neil Walker is done for the season with back surgery, and no one knows when Wilmer Flores can play again. 

At least Kyle Hendricks took care of business against the Cardinals to keep the Mets a half game ahead of them in the Wild Card race. 

Where the Wild Card Race Stands

After sweeping the Reds, and having won 14 of their last 18 games, the Mets have rallied from two games under .500 to get themselves back into the thick of the Wild Card race. In fact, after Wednesday’s games, the Mets are in a virtual tie with the St. Louis Cardinals. Better yet, they’re just a half game back of the Giants for the second Wild Card.

As we hit the homestretch with the Mets having 22 games remaining on the schedule, here is where everyone stands:

San Francisco Giants 74-65

The Giants are in a free-fall. They went from having the most wins in the National League before the All Star Break to having the third worst record in the National League after the break.

The Giants are 4-6 in your last 10, and they are 6-11 over their last 17 games. Even with all that, the Giants have a half-game lead over the Cardinals and Mets for the top Wild Card spot and are five games back of the Dodgers in the NL West.

The main reason why the Giants are struggling right now is their pitching. Madison Bumgarner has gone from dominant in the first half to human in the second half with a 4-4 record and a 3.66 ERA.  Johnny Cueto has similarly struggled going 1-4 with a 3.90 ERA in the second half.  Keep in mind, these were the only starters the Giants can truly rely upon with Matt Cain never fully came back after his injury problems, Jake Peavy missing most of the year with injuries, and Jeff Samardzjia not living up to his free agent contract.

Worse yet, when the Giants get a late lead, it isn’t safe. Santiago Castilla had blown three saves in the second half. Castilla is struggling to the point that Bruce Bochy removed him from the game against the Rockies rather than letting him make matters worse.

The Giants currently have 23 games remaining against the following opponents:

  • 3 at Diamondbacks (58-81)
  • 3 vs. Padres (57-82)
  • 4 vs. Cardinals (73-65)
  • 3 at Dodgers (79-60)
  • 4 at Padres (57-82)
  • 3 vs. Rockies (67-72)
  • 3 vs. Dodgers (79-60)

The Giants remaining opponents combined winning percentage is .481.  The biggest benefit to their schedule are the 10 games remaining against the Diamondbacks and Padres as the Giants have a combined 19-9 record against them.

Fangraphs gives the Giants a 66.6% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 70.7% chance of making the postseaon.

St. Louis Cardinals 73-65

Injuries are starting to catch up to the Cardinals who are 5-5 over their last 10. Since Aledmys Diaz went on the disabled list with a broken thumb, the Cardinals are effectively a .500 team going 17-16.

Other notable injuries are Matt HollidayMichael Wacha, and Trevor Rosenthal. While the Cardinals are keeping their heads above water, they may need to play better than .500 ball to return to the postseason.

The Cardinals currently have 24 games remaining against the following opponents:

  • 4 vs. Brewers (62-77)
  • 3 vs. Cubs (89-50)
  • 4 at Giants (74-65)
  • 3 at Rockies (67-72)
  • 3 at Cubs (89-50)
  • 4 vs. Reds (57-81)
  • 3 vs. Pirates (68-69)

The combined winning percentage of the remaining teams is .502.  Of the Cardinals remaining 24 games, 14 of them are at home where they are 30-37 on the season.

Fangraphs gives the Cardinals a 57.4% chance of getting a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 58.6% chance of making the postseason.

Washington Nationals 81-57

If seven with 17 remaining isn’t an insurmountable hurdle then 8.5 with 22 remaining shouldn’t be either. That goes double with Stephen Strasburg leaving his first start from the disabled list with an apparent injury.  With that said, the Nationals are hot winning seven of their last 10, and with their remaining schedule, it’s going to take a miracle for the Mets to win the division.  Here are the Nationals remaining games:

  • 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
  • 3 vs. Mets (74-66)
  • 3 at Braves (54-86)
  • 3 at Marlins (69-71)
  • 3 at Pirates (68-69)
  • 4 vs Diamondbacks (58-81)
  • 3 vs. Marlins (69-71)

The Nationals remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .461.  Of the Nationals remaining 24 games, they have 16 against National League East teams, and so far, the Nationals are 42-18 against the National League East.  Fangraphs gives the Nationals a 99.7% chance of winning the division, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 100% chance of making the postseason.

New York Mets 74-66

When the dust settled last night, the Mets found themselves in a virutal tie with the Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and a half game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card spot.  It should be noted the Mets trail both the Cardinals and the Giants by one game in the loss column.

The Mets are at this point with question marks of their own.  Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera are each effectively playing on one leg.  Neil Walker is out for the season joining David Wright, Lucas Duda, and Matt Harvey.  With Rafael Montero‘s struggles, Gabriel Ynoa having difficulty getting major league hitters out, and Logan Verrett not living up to the challenge, the Mets have no real fifth starter at the moment.  While Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have stepped up, they are not on par with Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz, neither of whom is definitive to return this season.  With all that said, the Mets have hope because they have the weakest schedule out of any of the aforementioned Wild Card competitors:

  • 3 at Braves (54-86)
  • 3 at Nationals (82-57)
  • 3 vs. Twins (52-88)
  • 3 vs. Braves (54-86)
  • 4 vs. Phillies (62-77)
  • 3 at Marlins (69-71)
  • 3 at Phillies (62-77)

The combined winning percentage of the Mets remaining opponents is .457, which is the lowest opponent’s winning percentage of any of the aforementioned teams the Mets are still chasing.

Fangraphs give the Mets a 64.5% chance of grabbing a Wild Card spot, and Baseball Prospectus gives them a 67.2% chance of making the postseason.

Overall, the Mets schedule is filled with a lot of winnable games.  If the Mets take care of business, they should be returning to the postseason for the second straight season.


Mets Won Despite Terry Collins Trying to Make Things Interesting

The bad news was that Noah Syndergaard struggled.  It was to be expected from the scheduled times the Mets have had the past four games.  The good news is that the aforementioned issues didn’t matter because the Mets were playing the Reds yet again.

Syndergaard needed 95 pitches just to get through five innings.  He didn’t have one 1-2-3 inning.  He tied a career high by issuing four walks.  Still, he was able to keep the Reds at bay because he struck out seven batters, and because, well, you’ll never believe it – there were three base runners nailed on the basepaths.

Rene Rivera would nail two base runners alone in the second inning.  First, it was Brandon Phillips who was thrown out trying to steal second after leading off the inning with a single.  Scott Schebler would then walk, and Rivera would throw him out when he tried to steal second.

As if that wasn’t good enough, something more impressive happened.  There were runners on first and third after consecutive singles from Jose Peraza and Eugenio Suarez.  Mayhem would ensure, probably as the result of the Reds not knowing how to respond to Syndergaard trying to hold on a base runner.  Syndergaard caught Suarez napping on a throw over to first.  Suarez broke to second to get caught in a run down.  As this happened, Peraza broke for home.  Asdrubal Cabrera noticed, and he threw home to nail him to get Syndergaard out of another jam.

Due in part to that, Syndergaard’s strikeouts, and the Reds suddenly morphing into the Mets with runners in scoring position, Syndergaard pitched five scoreless and got the win because of the home run.

Right out of the gate, Jose Reyes took the first pitch of the game from Anthony DeSclafani, and he deposited it into the right field stands:

Reyes would account for the next run in the third when he scored a proverbial “Reyes Run.”  After Syndergaard led off the inning with a single, Reyes busted it out of the box to avoid the double play.  It seemed as if the Reds were going to get out of the inning as DeSclafani got Yoenis Cespedes to hit a grounder to short.  However, Peraza missed it allowing Reyes from first to third.  With Curtis Granderson at the plate, DeSclafani unleashed a wild pitch allowing Reyes to score.

It was part of a terrific game from Reyes who was 2-5 with two runs, an RBI, and a homer.  It was the rare terrific game for Reyes this year from the left-hand side of the plate.  Before today, Reyes was hitting .244/.283/.353 as a left-handed batter.  While it is a small sample size, it should be pointed out Reyes hit .275/.309/.374 as a left-handed batter last year, and .289/.328/.404 the year before that.  While he gets reviled, we could be seeing the positive effects of Reyes working with Kevin Long.

The other run was the result of the resurgent Curtis Granderson:

Granderson is suddenly scorching at the plate after having a poor July and a dreadful August.  Over Granderson’s last four games, he has three homers and seven RBI.  Given Terry Collins propensity to play him and bench Michael Conforto at all costs, the Mets are going to need more of the same from him.

Wilmer Flores would blow the game open in the eighth hitting a two run pinch hit home run off Reds reliever Wandy Peralta.  For some reason or other, Reds manager Bryan Price let the left-hander actually face Flores with the game still in doubt.  It was yet another sign we have seen from a Reds team that has seemingly quit on the season.

Flores’ pinch hit home run was the Mets 12th of the season, which ties the Mets single season mark set in 1983.

In addition to the Mets hitting a bunch of homers, a couple of struggling Mets relievers got some redemption.  Hansel Robles would pitch a scoreless 1.2 innings.  Robles went into the second inning of work because Collins emptied his bullpen yesterday, and because Robles clearly hasn’t gotten enough work all seasonJerry Blevins then relieved Robles with a runner on and two out in the seventh to face Joey Votto.  Blevins snapped out of a recent funk a bit in striking out Votto.

Of course, no game would be complete without a completely baffling Collins’ managerial decision.  Yesterday, after Rafael Montero couldn’t make it through five, Collins had tabbed Gabriel Ynoa to get the last out of the fifth inning after Votto’s sacrifice fly off Josh Edgin.  As insane as it was to bring a minor league starter and use him for a third of an inning in a game the Mets needed a long reliever, it was even crazier to use that guy for the second game in a row.

With the Mets not knowing when Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz will be able to pitch next, and Montero showing he shouldn’t start another game, Ynoa was most likely the guy you would tab for the next start.  Instead, Collins chose him to pitch today even with Sean Gilmartin and Logan Verrett fully rested.  It should come as a surprise to no one what ensued.

Ynoa would immediately load the bases with no outs forcing Collins to go to Addison Reed, who is not good with inherited base runners.  Reed would strike out Tyler Holt, and then things would get interesting.  Tucker Barnhart would hit an RBI single, and the bases would remain loaded.  After a Ramon Cabrera ground-out, with Reyes getting the force out at home, Peraza would hit a two run double over Cespedes’ head.  Reed would strike out Eugenio Suarez to get out of the jam.  The Mets would keep the lead even if it was shaved down to 5-3.

The Mets added an insurance run in the eighth as Cabrera and Cespedes hit back-to-back doubles of Reds reliever Tony Cingrani.  Again, you have to question what the Reds were thinking with them pitching to Cespedes with an open base.

With the 6-3 lead, it was a save situation leading Collins to bring in Jeurys Familia, and he would record his 47th save of the season.  It would also be the 60th game he finished this season.  Reed and Familia have now pitched four times in the last five games.  But hey, it was a good idea to bring in a non-reliever in Ynoa for the second straight day.

Fortunately, the Mets pulled out the win, and they are now eight games over .500, and they are a half game out of a Wild Card spot (two in the loss column).  Pending what happens tonight, the Mets could find themselves in a virtual tie with the St. Louis Cardinals.

Game Notes: Gavin Cecchini didn’t play again today.  Alejandro De Aza started in center with Jay Bruce and Conforto sitting.  James Loney continues to hit better of late going 2-3 on the day.

Pennant Race: Everyone who matters plays later.

 

Mets August 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered August 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They also trailed the Marlins by 1.5 games for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

By going 15-14, August turned out to be just the second winning month the Mets have had this season.  They now trail the Nationals by nine games in the NL East.  After what has been a crazy month, the Mets still remain 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot.  Only now, the Mets trail the the Cardinals after having helped put the Marlins away having won the first three against them in a four game series.  Given the Mets weak September schedule, it should be an interesting finish to the season.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (C).  After the Jonathon Lucroy rumors died down, d’Arnaud starting hitting again.  However, he has cooled off to hit at a rate slightly better than his 2016 totals.  Part of the reason may be Collins playing Rivera over him with the Mets needing to throw a lot of young pitchers out there.

Kevin Plawecki (Inc.)  Plawecki spent the entire month down in AAA where he has started hitting again.  He should be among the first group of players called up today.  It’ll be interesting to see what, if any, impact he has over the final month of the season.

Rene Rivera (C).  Rivera came crashing back to Earth offensively.  However, his value has always been as a receiver, and he has done that job fairly well helping usher some of these young pitchers into the big leagues.

Lucas Duda (Inc). Duda is most likely gone for the season, and the debate will soon begin about whether he will be a Met in 2017.

James Loney (F).  He didn’t hit for average or power, nor did he get on base much during the entire month.  Worse yet, he has not been good in the field.  The next ball he stretches for will be his first.

Neil Walker (A+).  What has happened to Walker is nothing short of heart breaking.  He had completely turned his season around, and he appeared to be headed for a massive payday this offseason with him standing out as one of the better options in a weak free agent class.  Instead, Walker is going to have season ending back surgery to end his season.

David Wright (Inc.).  It’s clear he’s done for the season, but it is nice seeing him around Citi Field and looking better.

Asdrubal Cabrera (A+).  Since his return from the disabled list, Cabrera has been a blonde bombshell.  He moved into the second spot in the order, and he he has combine with Reyes to form a dynamic and powerful 1-2 duo at the top of the lineup.  The only concern is how much he is going to actually be able to play with that lingering knee issue.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers, and now he’s hitting righties better. The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (D).  Reynolds didn’t hit well during his 10 games with the Mets this month.  Worse yet for him, he has been passed over on the team’s depth chart by Rivera.

Ty Kelly (A).  During his limited August playing time, Collins was able to maximize Kelly’s abilities by making him a short-lived platoon left fielder with Cespedes dealing with his quad injury.  In his nine August games, Kelly hit .381/.500/.524 with a double and a triple.

Michael Conforto (D).  After a stretch in which the Mets bottomed out, Conforto was sent down as he was a young player unable to handle sporadic playing time.  Since being sent down to AAA, Conforto has hit everything including lefties.  He should be called up today, and most likely, never play as Collins is his manager.

Yoenis Cespedes (A).  It was admirable that Cespedes played until he could play no longer (even if his golfing might’ve been part of the reason why).  Since his return, Cespedes is hitting home runs again.  He has had another incredible month, and he had a walkoff with a legendary bat flip to help the Mets beat the Marlins.

Curtis Granderson (D).  It hasn’t been fun seeing last year’s team MVP struggle the way he has this month.  He lost his job in right, moved to center, and now has become a part time player.  The hope is that with the time off, he rests up, and he returns to the Granderson of old.  Those hopes don’t seem that far fetched after he came off the bench the other night to hit two home runs.

Juan Lagares (Inc).  Lagares didn’t play in August due to the thumb surgery.  It remains questionable if he can return in September as he will most likely not be ready for rehab games until after the minor league affiliates have ended their seasons.

Alejandro De Aza (C-).  De Aza followed a great July with another poor August.  Mixed in there were a couple of terrific games that helped the Mets win a pivotal game against the Cardinals.  Right now, what he brings more than anything is the ability to play center field.

Kelly Johnson (A+).  Johnson continues to be the Mets top pinch hitter as well as a platoon option in the infield.  Over the past month, he has hit for more power including a surprising five homers.  His bases loaded double last night might’ve buried the Marlins.

Brandon Nimmo (Inc).  He only played two games before being sent down to AAA.  Given the fact that he’s one of the few healthy center fielders in the organization, he may see some real time when he gets called up with the expanded rosters.

Jose Reyes (A).  You could say we’re seeing the Reyes of old, but Reyes has never been this good in his career.  He has adapted extremely well to third base while playing a steady shortstop when the Mets have needed him to play over there when Cabrera has been injured or needing a day off.  The one caution is he still isn’t hitting right-handed pitching that well.  Still, his numbers were terrific.

T.J. Rivera (B).  After all this time, Rivera finally got his chance.  He made the most of it hitting .289 in 13 games while playing decently at second and third base.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc).  When he plays, he hits, but he is now on his second disabled list stint already with the Mets. With him being put on the 60 day disabled list, he’s now done for the season.   Seeing what we have seen with the team, there may be something in the water.

Jay Bruce (F).  Since coming to the Mets for Dilson Herrera, he has just been bad.  But hey, it’s not like the Mets need another second baseman, right?

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey is done for the season after having had successful surgery to remove a rib.  For a player who has been criticized in the past for attending Yankee games while being gone for the season, Harvey has been a fixture in the Mets dugout during games.

Jacob deGrom (D).  deGrom had been pitching great until August rolled around.  In back-to-back big games against the Giants and the Cardinals, he couldn’t deliver pitching two of the worst games in his career.  Hopefully, the Mets skipping his last start will help get him back on track.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has had an uneven month, but after his last start, it appears he is dealing better with the bone spurs, and he is getting back to the pitcher who was dominant over the first half of the season.

Steven Matz (C).  Just as you thought he turned things around with his flirting with a no-hitter in his last start, he goes down with a shoulder injury.  At this time, it is unknown as to when or if he can return.

Bartolo Colon (A).  Colon stopped his good start-bad start streak in August, and he started pitching much better during the month of August at a time when the Mets needed him the most.

Logan Verrett (F).  Look, he shouldn’t have been tapped as the Mets fifth starter after Harvey went down, but with that said, he did everything he could to lose the job pitching to a 13.50 ERA in August.  He eventually lost the job to Niese of all people

Jeurys Familia (A).  That’s the Familia we all know and love.  He not only had a sub 1.00 ERA, but he also broke the single season Mets save record he shared with Armando Benitez.

Addison Reed (B+).  You knew he wasn’t going to keep up what he has been doing, but even with him coming back to Earth slightly, he has still be incredible.

Jim Henderson (F).  After being on the disabled list for so long with yet another shoulder injury, Henderson has made his way back to the majors.  Unfortunately, he’s not the same pitcher.  Collins owes him an apology.

Hansel Robles (F).  Robles showed how much he has been overworked this season by Collins this month.  Hopefully, with some rest, he should finally be able to rebound and contribute in September and beyond like he had done for most of the season.

Jerry Blevins (B+).  His 2.16 ERA was terrific, but his 1.560 WHIP gives some reason for pause.  Both righties and lefties are starting to hit him, and he has been allowing inherited runners to score.

Antonio Bastardo (Inc.)  Thankfully, he is gone, and it was worth it even if it meant the Mets had to take back Niese.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) He got an unexpected start due to injuries, and he fought his way through five scoreless innings.  Good for him.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin has only made three appearances since being recalled, and he hasn’t pitched particularly well.  Whether it was the shoulder injury or teams figuring him out, he’s not the same guy he was last season.

Erik Goeddel (F).  There used to be two factions of the Mets fan base: those who thought Goeddel was a good major league pitcher, and those that didn’t.  Seemingly, everyone is now in the latter camp now.

Seth Lugo (A).  Lugo has been nothing short of a revelation this year.  Due to injuries, he has had to go from the bullpen to the rotation.  He has not only shown his stuff translates as a starter, but he also shown he could actually be more effective as a starter.  He has gotten his 2014 deGrom moment, and he has taken advantage of it.

Jon Niese (F).  Somehow, he was worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates.  He has failed in the bullpen and the rotation.  Hopefully, for him, the reason is because of his knee injury that has required surgery.

Robert Gsellman (Inc.) It’s been a mixed bag for Gsellman.  In his one relief apperance and his one start, he has given the Mets a chance to win.   However, he’s a powder keg out there as it seems as if he is in trouble each and every inning.  To his credit, he has gotten out of most of the jams.  It’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here.

Gabriel Ynoa (Inc.) Ynao was surprisingly called up to pitch out of the bullpen.  In three rough appearances, the only thing you can fairly conclude is he isn’t comfortable yet pitching out of the bullpen.

Josh Edgin (D) Edgin has gone through the long Tommy John rehab process, but he’s not quite back yet.  His velocity isn’t quite there.  With that in mind, he has struggles getting major league batters out.

Josh Smoker (B) After a rough start to his major league career, he has gone out there and gotten better each and every time out.  He is getting his fastball in the upper 90s, and he is a strikeout machine.  He could be a real factor over the next month and in the postseason

Terry Collins (D)  He iced Conforto.  He continues to overwork the bullpen.  He makes baffling lineup decision after baffling lineup decision.  He is even worse with in-game management.  However, with the Mets on a stretch against some bad teams, and the Wild Card frontrunners not having run away with it, he may once again be in position to ride some good luck into the postseason.

Paul Sewald Deserves a Shot

The Mets have a back-end of the bullpen problem as no one has stepped up to claim that final spot.

For the second straight night, Sean Gilmartin had a tough outing. Overall, it has been a lost year for him with his shoulder injury and the fact that he has an 8.10 ERA in the majors this year.

He took over the spot of Erik Goeddel, who has had a disappointing year. He has a history of injuries, and he has been overworked by Terry Collins. The end result is a 4.55 ERA in 29 appearances.

One of the pleasant surprises to the season that Terry Collins helped ruined is Jim Henderson. Since coming off the disabled list, he has allowed two runs in 2.2 innings. In 29 appearances since throwing a career high 34 pitches, Henderson has a 4.74 ERA and a 1.378 WHIP.

Another nice story is Josh Smoker, who has fought his way from the Independent Leagues to the majors. Still, he has a 6.75  ERA with a 1.750 WHIP in five appearances.

Smoker has taken the place of Josh Edgin who has not fully regained his velocity in his first season after Tommy John surgery. In his limited appearances, he has a 9.82 ERA and a 1.909 WHIP.

In addition to these relievers, the Mets have tried some starters in the pen. Collins showed he had no use for Rafael Montero, who justified Collins’ refusal to play him, by pitching poorly when he finally got a shot. Gabriel Ynoa struggled out of the pen. With Steven Matz going on the disabled list, Robert Gsellman is in the rotation. Furthermore, with the Mets needing to skip a Jacob deGrom start, Montero will start on Monday.

The Mets have searched high and low, and they still haven’t found the answer in the bullpen. They haven’t found the pitcher who will be both effective and be able to allow Collins to give the overworked Hansel RoblesAddison Reed, and Jeurys Familia a break. It’s frustrating because the Mets have seemingly looked everywhere for a solution.

That is everywhere but Las Vegas 51s closer Paul Sewald. It’s strange the Mets haven’t turned to Sewald as he’s certainly merited a call-up.

In 52 appearances, Sewald is 5-3 with 19 saves, a 3.52 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and an astounding 11.2 K/9.  Further justifying a call-up is the fact that Sewald is currently pitching the best he has all year. After the All Star Break, Sewald has saved six games with a 2.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and a 12.6 K/9 in 16 appearances. These numbers are all the more impressive when you consider Sewald is doing this in the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.

Consider current Mets savior Seth Lugo had a 7.73 ERA in the Pacific Coast League, and he has a 2.51 ERA in the majors. As Lugo had showed, success at the majors is all about a pitcher’s arsenal.

Sewald has similar stuff to Reed, who has been brilliant since coming under the tutelage of pitching coach Dan Warthen. Sewald features a low nineties fastball and a plus slider. He maximizes on his repertoire by studying scouting reports. It also helps that Sewald pounds the strike zone. Long story short he had the stuff to compete at the major league level.

The only question is whether he will get the chance. He should as the Mets have looked elsewhere and still haven’t found someone they can rely upon in the back end of the bullpen. They should be able to rely on Sewald.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsminors.net

Rafael Montero Is a Non-Starter for the Mets

In the offseason, the Mets have more 40 man roster decisions looming.  Here are some notable Mets minor leaguers who will be needed to be added to the 40 man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft:

  1. Amed Rosario
  2. Wuilmer Becerra
  3. Gavin Cecchini
  4. Marcos Molina
  5. Paul Sewald
  6. Travis Taijeron
  7. Paul Paez
  8. Phillip Evans
  9. Champ Stuart
  10. Chase Bradford

There are many other roster choices the Mets will have to make aside from the aforementioned players.  With that the Mets are going to have to make some tough 40 man decisions.  With the Mets refusal to call-up Rafael Montero, he certainly stands to be one of the first people cut from the roster.  With that in mind, isn’t it in the Mets best interests to find out what they have in him?

At this point in his career, Montero was supposed to be a fixture in the Mets rotation, or at the very least, a part of the Mets bullpen.  Instead, he is stuck in AA, and he appears on his way out of the Mets organization.

The beginning of the end was last year when he complained of a shoulder injury after being demoted.  The Mets insisted he should be able to pitch through it while Montero stated he couldn’t.  It led to Terry Collins giving him a pep talk during a Mets road trip to Miami last August.  Collins then lectured Montero in Spring Training about how he needed to step it up; how it was supposed to be him instead of Bartolo Colon for the fifth spot.  Montero wouldn’t make it out of the first inning in his first Spring Training start, and he would be part of the first group of players demoted to Minor League Spring Training.

Due to a short Steven Matz start and a taxed bullpen, Montero would get called up to pitch out of the bullpen.  Even in obvious situations to use him, Collins refused.  Montero would go over a week without pitching a game, and when he did pitch, Montero would show his rust.  In his two appearances, he pitched 2.1 innings with an alarming 11.57 ERA.  Montero would be demoted.  It wouldn’t be his last demotion.

After going 4-6 with a 7.20 ERA and a 1.888 WHIP in 16 AAA starts, he was sent down to AA where he has thrived.  In eight starts, Montero has gone 4-2 with a 1.70 ERA and a 1.091 WHIP.  It is the best Montero has pitched in his professional career.  Arguably, Montero has become the Mets best minor league pitcher.  Still, the Mets have routinely passed him over.

When Matt Harvey went down for the season, the Mets turned to Logan Verrett.  When Verrett proved he couldn’t be a starting pitcher at the major league level, the Mets went to Jon Niese and his 5.20 ERA to take the fifth spot.  The Mets chose a struggling Gabriel Ynoa as insurance for Niese.  When Steven Matz first had his start skipped, the Mets went with Seth Lugo in the rotation.  Now that Matz is on the disabled list, Lugo is firmly in the rotation.  With Niese going on the disabled list and Robert Gsellman performing admirably in relief last night, Gsellman is going to take Niese’s sport in the rotation, which used to be Verrett’s spot, which used to be Harvey’s spot.  Point is the Mets are going through a lot of pitchers before even considering Montero.

The Mets didn’t even so much as call-up Montero to take Ynoa’s or Gsellman’s spot in the AAA rotation.  They didn’t go to Montero for a spot start or to go back to the bullpen.  The Mets went with Ynoa and Gsellman despite them not being relievers and with Montero having experience as a reliever.  It’s likely the Mets won’t turn to Montero unless there is another rash of injuries to the pitching staff, and perhaps not even then.  It is possible the Mets will call him up September 1st, but given Collins apparent unwillingness to use him, it’s extremely doubtful he will even appear in a game.

Fact is Montero is done with the Mets, and he is merely occupying a very valuable 40 man roster spot.  A roster spot the Mets could have used to protect Dario Alvarez, a very valuable reliever the Mets lost for  nothing.  A roster spot the Mets will need to protect a prospect who still has a future with the team.  Montero has no future with the Mets, and the Mets aren’t even going to see what they have in him before he leaves the team.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors

How Did It Come Down to Jon Niese?

Hopefully, the Mets will be in peak defensive form as the team is going to send Jon Niese to the mound in a critical three game set in St. Louis.  How did we get to this point?

Plain and simple, a mixture of bad luck and bad planning.  Niese was never supposed to be a Met in 2016.  The Mets traded him for Neil Walker, and with his reasonably affordable option years, it was presumed that he would be a Pirate through the 2018 season.  However, Niese was horrendous this season leaving the Pirates to demote him to the bullpen.  They were clearly going to let him walk after the season was over.  Fortunately for the Pirates, they were able to get rid of him even sooner.

The Mets had to contend with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery which left a hole in the rotation Logan Verrett couldn’t quite fill.  Despite know this, the Mets kept turning to Verrett as they did not trust Gabriel Ynoa, Robert Gsellman, or Seth Lugo. Sean Gilmartin went down with a shoulder injury.  Additionally, the Mets had the under-performing Antonio Bastardo in the bullpen.  The Mets were probably the one team who could use Niese as a bullpen arm and/or a possible fifth starter.  They were probably also the one team that believed they could salvage Niese.

As it turns out, the Mets desperately needed Niese.  Verrett couldn’t handle being the fifth starter.  Ynoa appeared as if the wasn’t ready in his short stint in the Mets bullpen.  Gsellman isn’t putting up great numbers in AAA.  Worst of all, Steven Matz was just diagnosed with a mild rotator cuff strain.  It is quite possible the Mets will need to not only replace Harvey, but also Matz for the rest of the season.  That will put Seth Lugo in the rotation.  It also means the Mets will have to keep Niese in the rotation for the remainder of the season.

It’s strange to think about it.  Niese was the first pitcher removed from the rotation last season.  The Mets seemingly wanted to get rid of him.  Now?  Now, he is a key part of a rotation that is taking the ball to start what is the Mets most critical series to date.

Niese has his fair share of detractors due to his struggles and his inability to accept any blame for his poor pitching.  Detractors could also be synonymous with Mets fans in this case.  With a big finish to the season, Niese can win over a large group of Mets fans.  That all begins tonight.

Somehow, some way, the Niese are relying on Jon Niese yet again.  It’s strange how it came to this point, but here we all are.  Let’s hope Niese makes the best of it because if the does, the Mets will return to the postseason.

Is the Mets Window Closing?

Right now, the Mets are four games out of a Wild Card spot, and they are desperately hoping with Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera coming off the disabled list this week that the team goes on a run that will bring them back into the postseason.  Whether or not that works, it is fair to ask if this is the Mets last chance to win the World Series.

The foundation of this team is its starting pitching.  Matt Harvey has gone from Opening Day starter to question mark with his season ending surgery to address his thoracic outlet syndrome.  There is no telling how effective he will be if he is able to come back.

Zack Wheeler was supposed to be back by the All Star Break.  Now, it appears that he will miss his second consecutive season.  While rehabbing from the surgery, Wheeler has had to have a second surgery to deal with forearm irritation caused by stitches, sensory nerve irritation, and now a flexor strain.  He had been treated by Dr. Dave Altchek, and he sought a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews.  We are continuously assured there are no structural issues, and yet, time and again there is a new excuse why he can’t pitch.  At the end of the day, it does not matter if he is unable to pitch due to his elbow or for other reasons.  Who knows when he can return or how effective he will be when returning.

There are more question marks in the rotation.  Steven Matz has yet to have a healthy season in the majors.  Bartolo Colon will be 44 years old next year meaning there is no guarantee that he pitches beyond this year.  Even if he does, there is no guarantee he will be this effective.  Logan Verrett has shown he is not capable of being a member of the starting rotation.  Sean Gilmartin‘s season ended early with shoulder problems.  The Mets aren’t going to pick up Jon Niese‘s option, and even if they did bring him back, you should probably expect more of the same from him.

The Mets other options are Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, both of whom are probably not ready to start in the majors.  Even if they are, both realistically project to be middle to back of the rotation starters.  That certainly helps, but that also a huge drop off from someone like Harvey.

As if the starting pitching wasn’t a big enough issue, there is the issue of the Mets offense.

As we saw this year, you cannot rely upon David Wright at all.  The Mets have no internal options to replace his bat in the lineup.  Worse yet, there is a lack of very good options on the free agent market choices available even if the Mets were so inclined to add a bat.  Keep in mind, they may also have to replace Lucas Duda at first base.  In 2015, Duda had a disc issue.  This year, Duda will miss almost the entire season with a stress fracture in his back.  There is a very real chance that he is a non-tender candidate.  The Mets do not have a first base option in the minors who is on track to play in the majors next year, and again, the free agent market is less than promising.  That means James Loney can once again be the Mets best option, and as we have seen, he is not a terribly good everyday option.

This isn’t even the Mets biggest problem, not by a long shot.

Cespedes can opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and he will easily become the best free agent available.  The narrative coming out of last offseason was how much Cespedes wanted to be a Met, and that is why he returned.  That’s the hope why he will stay.  However, it’s more narrative than fact.

The fact is Cespedes didn’t get a fair market value offer on the free agent market.  Judging from the free agent contracts handed out, teams placed a higher value on Jason Heyward and Justin Upton.  The teams you would think would be interested in Cespedes gave the money to somebody else.  The Nationals were interested, but due to budgetary constraints, they only offered Cespedes a largely backloaded deal. It is possible that after another postseason berth, and Jonathan Papelbon‘s salary off the books, the Nationals could make another run at Cespedes in the offseason.  It is also possible that the Giants, Dodgers, Rangers and/or the Angels could emerge as suitors for Cespedes.  There’s always the phantom mystery team that could join the bidding.

It is certainly plausible the Mets get outbid from Cespedes, or they simply move on from him.  Keep in mind, there were rumblings all over that the Jay Bruce trade was made, in part, as insurance for Cespedes leaving in the offseason.  If that is the case, the Mets outfield will yet again be left without a true center fielder.

The main task may first fall to Curtis Granderson, who has struggled mightily this year and should not be counted on to rebound in 2017.  The Mets could go with a Juan Lagares/Brandon Nimmo platoon in center, but that would leave no room for Michael Conforto to play everyday.

Speaking of Conforto, there is another major issue with this Mets team.  Both Conforto and Travis d’Arnaud have regressed this year.  Certainly, Conforto’s wrist and d’Arnaud’s shoulder are factors, but the fact remains, they have regressed.  Couple that with Kevin Plawecki not progressing at all, there is a major issue.  Either the Mets young talent is not as good as anticipated, or there are impediments at the major league level that is preventing them from reaching their full potential.  In order for the Mets to remain contenders, they will need their young players to step up.

Between the aforementioned free agent market and lack of major league ready prospects, the Mets only real hopes of improving the roster is on the trade front.  The problem there is the cupboard is getting bare.  The Mets have already moved big pieces in Michael Fulmer and Dilson Herrera.  They’re not willing to move Amed Rosario, and they are really unlikely to move Dominic Smith.  The Mets could move Nimmo, but that depletes from their depth for next season, and as we have seen, the Mets need all the depth they can get.

Keep in mind that over the past two seasons, the Mets have also moved Robert Whalen, Luis Cessa, John Gant, Akeel Morris, and Casey Meisner.  They lost Matthew Bowman and Dario Alvarez without getting anything in return.  Their departures leaves a gap of mid-tier prospects the Mets could move for upgrades.

Yes, the Mets can field a very competitive baseball team next year.  As long as you have pitchers like Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard, you are going to have a chance to compete.  With another year of Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia, it is a seven inning game for the Mets.  It’ll become a six inning game if Hansel Robles takes the next step.  But after that?

You’re counting on Neil Walker returning, which is not a guarantee.  You’re counting on Asdrubal Cabrera developing more range at shortstop while hitting better than .255/.308/.410.  He was a .249/.307/.405 hitter from 2013 – 2015.  You’re counting on Jose Reyes to hit better than his .250/.302/.466 and be healthy all of next year.  Reyes hit .274/.310/.378 while hitting in two of the best hitter’s parks last year.  You’re counting on Wilmer Flores being able to learn to hit righties.  You’re counting on the Mets not having to rely on the Eric Campbells and Ty Kellys on the world for prolonged stretches of time over the next season.  It’s all possible, but it’s not likely.

As things look right now, the Mets better start winning some ballgames and make a run because there is no guarantee that the Mets window to contend will remain open past this season.