Edwin Diaz
For those New York Mets fans who watched Rafael Montero, we wouldn’t have been shocked if he was a part of Major League history. Certainly, we could have bought him doing what Lance McCullers did in allowing a record five homers in a World Series start.
Actually, that’s not true at all. By 2017, there was not one Mets fan alive who believed Montero would still be in the Major Leauges at this point. Really, most Mets fans had believed Montero would not only never come close to living up to his prospect status, but they also believed his career was essentially over.
As was par for the course, much of that had to do with the Mets organization. More specifically, there was Jeff Wilpon’s meddling in medical matters, and there was Terry Collins eternal mishandling of pitchers. As we can recall, Montero had complained of shoulder and elbow issues with the Mets claiming he was making it up, and Collins traveling to essentially tell him to “man up.”
Well, eventually, we would see Montero’s Mets career end when he had to undergo Tommy John surgery. After all the disappointment, he was finally free to pursue his career elsewhere. While he had one promising year with the Seattle Mariners, he returned to the enigmatic pitcher he always was. It would not be until he was traded to the Houston Astros that his career would finally take off (pun intended).
Back in April, when the Mets had their combined no-hitter against the Philadelphia Phillies, it was a shock the Mets used Joely Rodriguez. As shocked as we were to see Rodriguez, it was far more surprising to see the Astros use Montero in the eighth inning to try to keep the combined no-hitter intact.
Rafael Montero, 96mph ⛽️
And…🤫 pic.twitter.com/Nt5sFmt9u0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) November 3, 2022
However, it wasn’t really a surprise for Astros fans. Montero has been phenomenal all season for them. He was one of the best relievers in all of baseball. Over 71 appearances, he was 5-2 with 14 saves, a 2.37 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, and a 9.2 K/9. He also had a 163 ERA+ and 2.64 FIP. In reality, he was better than any Mets reliever not named Edwin Diaz.
In this postseason, Montero has been great. Over nine appearances, he has a 1.00 ERA and a 0.889 WHIP. While it is coming as a reliever, you see what the Mets saw in him when they thought he was better than Jacob deGrom. The skill and execution is finally there. As a result, he has been great, and now, he is forever a part of Major League history.
History. #LevelUp
Cristian Javier, Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly celebrate the combined no-hitter 🙌 pic.twitter.com/4XHaVl1Sx9
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) November 3, 2022
Now, the old excuse of he wouldn’t have done it here has been far too overused with the Mets. With Justin Turner, his career starting blossoming at the end of his Mets tenure. For Travis d’Arnaud, he actually was great with the Mets in 2015. Both and more could have done it with the Mets.
For Montero, the excuse might actually be applicable. As an organization, the Mets continuously stood in his way. The questioned whether he was really injured. They challenged him when he should have been healing or resting. Because of this Wilponian mixture of arrogance and ignorance, Montero would not be able to be the pitcher he could be until 2022.
That’s a sad fact for Montero. That said, he is a lesson in perseverance. Because he never quit, he finally found the right situation, and now, he will forever be a part of Major League history while Jeff Wilpon is history in baseball.
We can dicker over which one of the New York Mets free agents is the most pressing. Honestly, when looking at it, Jacob deGrom is an absolute necessity. Same goes for Edwin Diaz. And yes, that also applies to Brandon Nimmo.
There are some who may want to disagree, but that’s not surprising. After all, no matter how productive Nimmo is atop the lineup or how much he improves defensively, he will forever have naysayers. To them, the question is if not Nimmo, then who?
Looking at the MLB free agents, Nimmo is far and away the best center fielder. In fact, he is the only everyday center fielder. Sure, you can say it’s Aaron Judge, who is a far superior players, but Judge is really a right fielder and will be so next season.
After Nimmo and Judge, who are you taking? Lorenzo Cain? A Kevin Pillar or Albert Almora reunion? Really, the center field free agent market is that sparse.
You could argue the Mets can shift Starling Marte back to center, but that may not be the best idea for a 34 year old who has trouble staying on the field. It should also be noted he was again slower in 2022. Yes, part of that was his leg injury. However, again, injuries are an issue for him, which is why the Mets moved him to right field in the first place.
There’s also the matter of just how good Nimmo is. In fact, Nimmo was the best center fielder by WAR in 2022 (again, assuming Judge moves back to right field as will all further points). His wRC+ was second only to Julio Rodriguez. He was tied for 11th in OAA. What’s scary about this is we can all agree this was somewhat of a down year offensively for Nimmo.
Consider that for a moment, despite a relative down year, Nimmo was the best at his position in 2022. He is a prototypical lead-off hitter. He continues to improve in the field year-in and year-out. He is a fan favorite. He is the best and really only available at his position this offseason.
Going back to Rodriguez for a second, the Mets don’t have a real center field prospect in the pipeline. Really, they don’t have any outfield prospects close to the majors. When it comes to the Mets, their only option is Nimmo.
If this were the Wilpons, Nimmo would be as good as gone. However, this is Steve Cohen’s Mets. Scott Boras or no Scott Boras, Cohen has the ability to make sure Nimmo stays with the Mets. Surveying the landscape, the Mets have no other choice than to make it happen. Brandon Nimmo needs to stay with the Mets.
The Sporting News has begun releasing their year end awards, and New York Mets manager Buck Showalter was named the National League Manager of the Year. Whomever made up the electorate has a lot of explaining to do about that.
Before delving further, there needs to be an important clarification about this Mets team. The roster that was assembled was a very good roster built to win the division and the World Series. This was not remotely the team which fell apart under Luis Rojas.
Look at the team again. There were four All-Stars with Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil, and Edwin Diaz. The team had five Silver Slugger finalists in Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Marte, McNeil, and Brandon Nimmo. Over half of their lineup was viewed upon as amongst the best at their position, and for absolutely none of those players was that remotely a shock..
This was also a team with the strongest and deepest rotation in baseball. They were second in baseball in payroll. This was an exceptional team across the board. Treating them like the Major League roster with Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn and Willie Mays Hayes was always been a farce.
However, narratives are narratives. It is with that prism people want to proclaim Showalter the best manager in the National League. Like most narratives, they fall to even the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Again, this was a very good team. It is why the Mets had a 10.5 game lead in June. Keep in mind, that meant Showalter was the skipper for a team which blew a 10.5 game lead. That is the largest blown lead over a full 162 game season since the inception of division play. What makes it all the worse is the Mets had the easiest closing schedule in baseball and only needed to take one game from the Atlanta Braves the final weekend of the season.
Put another way, Showalter led the Mets to an unprecedented collapse. It is bizarre they would give this award to a manager who was in charge when the Mets collapsed. More to the point, it is farcical Showalter would win the award over Brian Snitker, the manager who led the team from the 10.5 deficit to overtake Showalter’s Mets.
There is also the fact Dave Roberts led the Los Angeles Dodgers to the best record in all of baseball. He did that doing his usual platoon side mixing and matching. He also did it getting nothing from Walker Buehler and abbreviated seasons from Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, and Andrew Heaney. However, he doesn’t nearly get any credit. It’s probably because he is still tainted by the Dodgers past postseason failures.
Of course, for some reason, Showalter never had to deal with that reality when people looked at voting him Manager of the Year. Looking at him late in the season and the postseason, he was still every bit the manager who didn’t use Zack Britton. A large part of that may well be he has been great with the media and was great in the media.
This is a large part of the reason why he was not put under the microscope for his and his team’s failures. It is why he won Manager of the Year over the guy who beat him (Snitker) and the manager who probably did the best job (Roberts). In the end, people wanted to pretend it was Showalter who transformed the Mets and not the fact Steve Cohen opened his wallet to build a very good Mets team.
With Showalter getting a pass and people overlooking just how good this roster was, Showalter wins even though his team lost. All you can do is shake your head and laugh.
One of the reasons the New York Mets lost the 2015 World Series was Terry Collins bullpen usage. Ironically, Collins lost the Mets the World Series chasing a win.
In Game 3, the only game in the series the Mets would win, Collins used Addison Reed, Tyler Clippard, and Jeurys Familia . . . to protect a six run lead. SIX. RUN. LEAD.
Collins would later admit using Familia in Game 3 impacted his decision making in Game 4. Instead of Familia for six outs, Clippard started the eighth with the Mets up 3-2.
That proved the turning point in the series. After two one out walks, Familia entered, and that’s when Daniel Murphy booted the ball leading to the Mets loss.
The Mets losing Game 4 had its roots with Collins needlessly using his best relievers in Game 3. The Mets lost because they did way too much to try to win.
That may be exactly what Buck Showalter just did in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.
In the seventh inning of Game 2, Showalter brought in Edwin Díaz to help preserve the Mets 3-2 lead. You could understand the decision with the San Diego Padres about to turn over their batting order again.
Getting Díaz through the Padres best hitters, regardless of the inning, was an inspired decision. Use your best reliever against their best hitters. The Mets had to win the game, and that was the best way to do it.
What the problem with what Showalter did was executing the plan and showing an inability to be adaptable to the game situation.
In the bottom of the seventh, the Mets offense finally exploded. They’d put four runs on the board to increase the Mets lead to 7-2.
During the inning, Díaz had not pitched in over 40 minutes. Despite that, Showalter showed no adaptability to the situation, and he never got another reliever warming.
Edwin Diaz is returning for the top of the eighth, which surprises me greatly.
— Tim Healey (@timbhealey) October 9, 2022
He's going more than 40 minutes between pitches.
This game is currently a blowout.
Mets 7, Padres 2, top 8
Admittedly, there’s was way too much hand-wringing over the time. Díaz historically warms quickly and does not like to overdo it with the warm-ups. In many ways, he’s uniquely suited to this situation.
The time gap wasn’t the issue. It was going back to Díaz with a FIVE RUN LEAD IN THE EIGHTH INNING.
By losing Game 1, the Mets put themselves in a bad spot. They had to do everything to win Game 2. Realistically speaking, they won Game 2 by going up five heading into the eighth.
You could almost excuse Showalter for using Díaz to start the eighth. By getting through the rest of the heart of the order, you stop the Padres before they can start.
However, it’s a five run lead. Díaz threw an additional nine pitches. The hope is it won’t impact his availability to get six outs in Game 3.
While his use of Díaz was questionable, his use of Adam Ottavino was short-sighted and potentially very costly. Again, the initial idea was arguably defensible, but the totality of the decision making was deeply flawed.
Díaz left with a runner on. Ottavino came in and got the last out to end the inning. At that point, he had thrown five pitches and would’ve been fully available for Game 3.
The Mets had a number of bullpen arms they could’ve turned to in the ninth. Each one of them would’ve been able to hold a five run lead. Instead, Showalter stuck with Ottavino.
Relievers getting up and down like that is always a risky proposition. With respect to Ottavino, he didn’t have it in the ninth.
He would plunk a batter and walk three forcing home a run. In the process, he threw 30 pitches raising his pitch count to 35.
This means Showalter took a fully rested Díaz and compromised how much he might be able to pitch in Game 3. He then took a fully rested Ottavino, and he made him effectively unavailable for Game 3.
As bad as that was, Showalter made it worse because at that point he had no other choice.
After Ottavino walked in a run, Josh Bell came to the plate as the tying run. At that point, Díaz is out of the game, and Ottavino had to leave the game.
Showalter had little other choice than to use Seth Lugo. That is because Showalter’s decision making helped put the Mets in a position where they had to pull out all the stops.
Lugo got the job done. He only needed four pitches to earn his first career postseason save.
Using Lugo there was very problematic, and it may very well make him unavailable for Game 3.
By now, every Mets fan knows Lugo has a torn UCL. He’s opted not to have it surgically repaired, and based on his pitching, he made the right move.
However, it came with some compromises. For years, the Mets would not use him on back-to-back days. On the rare times this happens, Lugo typically struggles with a .788 OPS against and a 4.16 ERA.
He extremely rarely pitches three games in a row. If he were to appear in Game 3, that is exactly what would happen.
Some may say this is making too big of a deal out of the appearance. After all, he only threw four pitches. That position is severely misplaced.
Remember, Lugo got up to warm up multiple times in the game. When Jacob deGrom was struggling in the fifth, Lugo was warming to enter.
This means Lugo warmed twice in the game. He might’ve only thrown four pitches in the game, but he threw 17 over two days. In his career, he very rarely pitches on consecutive days, and no one will consider using him three straight.
As a result, he is probably out of the Game 3 mid. Even if he’s not, he probably should be. That’s an astonishing development.
After the Mets four run rally in the seventh, they were on their way to an easy win with a fully rested bullpen for Game 3.
Somehow, Showalter turned that possibly preventing Díaz from getting six outs (or impacting his effectiveness in doing so), not having Ottavino, and based on five plus years of history, having Lugo unavailable.
Having that happen is a complete and utter failure by Showalter. The only hope is this will not matter or cost the Mets from protecting a Game 3 lead. If it does, Showalter and Showalter alone will be to blame.
Do you recall why the New York Mets collapsed in 2007? Injuries for sure played a part. Yes, the Philadelphia Phillies going on a tear played a part too.
However, ultimately, it was on the Mets. They didn’t beat the teams they should’ve beaten easily. That put seven in 17 completely on them.
Now, the Mets were swept by the Phillies, but they were still up 3.5 games with 14 left to play. The Mets would finish the season going a combined 5-8 against the Washington Nationals and the then Florida Marlins (with a make-up game loss to the St. Louis Cardinals).
If that Mets team took care of business against those dreadful teams, they win the division with ease. Instead, it was a historic collapse.
The very same thing could happen to this Mets team who once had a 10.5 game lead in the division. Not winning the NL East would be a collapse.
The Mets had the weakest September schedule in baseball. They’ve squandered it and the three game lead they had entering the month.
Against the Nationals, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago Cubs, Marlins, and Oakland Athletics, the Mets are a combined 10-9. That includes them being 1-6 at home against the Nationals, Cubs, and Marlins.
#Mets are 1-6 in September at home against the Marlins, Cubs and Nationals. That’s almost incomprehensible.
— Zach Braziller (@NYPost_Brazille) September 28, 2022
There’s just no defending that. Yes, saying it isn’t a collapse and pointing to the Braves record from June 1 on is defending it. The Mets not winning this division is solely on them.
Case-in-point, let’s say instead of 1-6, the Mets were 6-1 at home against those teams. In all honesty, in a tight division race, there’s no reason why they weren’t.
This would mean instead of being tied atop the division with a 97-58 record, they would be five games up with a 102-53 record.
As a result, the Mets magic number right now would be two. TWO!
We could and should be talking about the Mets potentially clinching if they beat the Marlins. Instead, we’re talking about the Mets needing to win to stay tied before heading to Atlanta.
When you can’t beat up on the Nationals and Marlins, you’re collapsing. That was true for the 2007 Mets, and it holds true today.
Obviously, these Mets making the postseason makes this feel different. That will allow the Mets to write their own story as to how this season will be remembered.
If the Mets don’t win the division, they risk a first round exit. Certainly, that would be another factor in correctly terming what’s happening a collapse.
That said, it’s hard to image that happening with a top three of Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Chris Bassitt. In fact, with that three, with Edwin Diaz at the back-end,
Then again, with those four, it’s difficult to imagine the Mets in this situation. With them pitching in Atlanta, maybe this collapse is over. We shall see.
Back in 2015, the New York Mets blew the World Series in large part due to Terry Collins. While time has somehow been more kind to Collins, fact is he is the main reason the Mets didn’t win the World Series.
Yes, Jeurys Familia blew three saves. Daniel Murphy made an error. David Wright fielded a ball he shouldn’t have while Lucas Duda threw it away. However, there were a series of just baffling and just flat out dumb decisions from Collins which led to these events. Really, these were all consequences of Collins’ horrific managing.
All of his errors have been explained in full here and other places. Ultimately, this is the worst case scenario for a team. You cannot have a manager and his poor decision making be the reason a team does not win a World Series.
We are starting to see signs Buck Showalter is probably cut from the same cloth as Collins. His recent decisions are an indication of that, and that would be very bad news for the Mets.
The Mets last game against the Milwaukee Brewers should have each and every Mets fan very nervous for the postseason. To set the stage, Starling Marte is on the IL, and Brandon Nimmo had to come out of the game with a quad injury. The Mets were trailing 1-0 heading into the seventh despite having base runners on in each and every inning.
Before we get into the pitching, he would leave a very clearly hobbled Jeff McNeil on the field. For one game, Showalter risked losing McNeil for the rest of the season and postseason. He did that and then managed his bullpen horrifically.
Some questioned letting Taijuan Walker start the inning. That is a decision which can be debated with some of the bullpen arms probably unavailable including Edwin Diaz and Seth Lugo. After Walker stumbled, Collins went to David Peterson.
Now, Peterson is a starter who has struggled out of the bullpen. This was a big ask of him. Runners were on first and second with no outs and a run already in.
The thing is Peterson did his job. The Brewers gave up the out with a sacrifice bunt before Peterson struck out Christian Yelich. The Mets were one out away from getting out of the inning. That’s where Showalter made a number of flat out dumb decisions.
While you can understand the impetus not to want to pitch to Willy Adames, intentionally walking him to load the bases is a bad move because it gives Peterson, a pitcher who sometimes inexplicably loses command, no lee-way. However, as we found out, it wasn’t going to be Peterson.
After Craig Counsell pinch hit Mike Brosseau for Rowdy Tellez, Showalter went to Drew Smith. This is the same Smith who has not pitched since July 24. This is the same Smith who has been homer prone this year. Well, he would go up 0-2 in the count before giving up that grand slam.
Keep in mind, Showalter isn’t dumb. He is the guy who prepares and over prepares. He is the type of manager who likes to take control and set innings into motion. He’s not a bystander. Put another way, Showalter put that inning in motion with the intent of having Smith pitch to Brosseau.
He was prepared for that eventuality when he sent Walker out there to start the inning. He had that plan when he ordered the intentional walk of Adames. This is the match-up he wanted. He wanted it, and it blew up in his face.
Unfortunately, this is Showalter in big moments. It is David Cone for too long before Jack McDowell. It is Bobby Chouinard over Matt Mantei. It is literally anyone but Zack Britton. It’s been a problem in Showalter’s managerial career, and it is a big reason why his teams have only won one postseason series, and it’s why Showalter is still chasing that elusive World Series ring.
Right now, we’re seeing that same Showalter. If he really wants to win this time, and he has the roster capable of winning a World Series, he is finally going to have to adapt and change. If not, we may see moments like this again come this postseason with Mets fans dreaming of what might have been.
The defining moment of Buck Showalter’s managerial career was leaving Zack Britton in the bullpen during the winner-take-all 2017 American League Wild Card Game. That’s who Showalter always had been, and apparently, always will be.
Edwin Díaz had last pitched on September 1. Why? Because that’s the last time there was a save opportunity.
Technically, Diaz earned the hold as he was used in the eighth to pitch against the heart of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup. After that, Showalter found no need to use Díaz.
Keep in mind, the Mets have played some close games. Well, they were close until the bullpen imploded. The end result is the Mets current 2-4 stretch seeing their NL East lead completely evaporate.
Showalter found reason to use Adam Ottavino three times over four days helping lead to a loss. He used Tommy Hunter three times over four days and four out of seven. That helped lead to two losses.
Joely Rodriguez managed to pitch three times since we last saw Diaz. He let up a big homer against the Marlins. We even saw Bryce Montes de Oca, who Showalter thought wise to try to push to two innings.
Since we last saw Díaz pitch, Showalter’s bullpen usage has been baffling. He found no time to use Diaz and instead did this:
- Tommy Hunter – 3 G, 4.2 IP, 2 ER
- Joely Rodriguez – 3 G, 2.1 IP, 2 ER
- Bryce Montes de Oca, 2 G, 2.1 IP, 3 ER
- Adam Ottavino, 2 G, 2,0 IP, ER
- Seth Lugo, 2 G, 3.0 IP, 0 ER
- Mychal Givens, 2 G, 2.2 IP, 0 ER
- Adonis Medina, G, 0.1 IP, 4 ER
- Alex Claudio, G, 1.0 IP, 0 ER
Finally, in the loss to the Miami Marlins, Showalter finally used Diaz. At that point, it was too little too late.
The bullpen ERA was 5.89 between Diaz appearances. The Mets record was 2-4 over this stretch. The Mets lead has evaporated.
This is partially because that’s how Showalter led this team. Certainly, his bullpen management is a factor. Whatever you want to point to, and there’s plenty, it’s come with Showalter in charge.
This should serve as a reminder Showalter has been very poor in the postseason and has never won anything. Unless he finally learns a lesson about bullpen management and adapts, he may still hold this Mets team back from winning this year.