Edwin Diaz
Jacob deGrom is a great pitcher, perhaps the best there is in all of baseball. When he pitches during the day, there isn’t anyone better. It’s only slightly hyperbole to say you’d take deGrom in the daytime over pitchers like Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, or Christy Mathewson.
Today, deGrom pitched like daytime deGrom allowing just four hits over seven scoreless innings while walking one and striking out nine. Really, he was just toying with the Padres.
⚠️ Caution ⚠️
Batter's box may be slippery when de? is on the mound. pic.twitter.com/kvSMNSjgnZ
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 25, 2019
No Padre would reach third. His season ERA is down to 2.86, and he’s pitching like a guy who is getting momentum towards real Cy Young considerations
In what was a pleasant surprise, he’d get some help. Juan Lagares was able to recover from misreading an Eric Hosmer sixth inning liner to catch the ball and keep the Padres off the board. We’d also see a terrific defensive play from an improving Amed Rosario:
.@Amed_Rosario having himself a day with the glove. ??? pic.twitter.com/jH9w80Xjzw
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 25, 2019
More than that, deGrom would get some rare run support with the Mets jumping all over Eric Lauer in a four run first which was capped off by a Todd Frazier two RBI double and a Michael Conforto RBI single against the shift.
After that Conforto RBI single, the Mets stranded 14 runners on base. That included not scoring runners from scoring position in the second, third, sixth, seventh, and eighth. In the latter two, the Mets left the bases loaded.
Those four runs held up because deGrom was brilliant, Seth Lugo was Seth Lugo, and Luis Avilan pitched a scoreless ninth.
Originally, it was Edwin Diaz in the ninth, but he was hit hard by a Manny Machado liner, and as a result, the Mets played it safe and lifted him from the game.
If the Mets took care of business in San Francisco, there would be real room for excitement in taking two of three from the Padres. Instead, we can just marvel at deGrom’s greatness.
Game Notes: Pete Alonso is struggling out of the break hitting .125. This will certainly cue the Home Run Derby curse takes.
Last year, the Rays traded Chris Archer to the Pirates for a package which included Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz. This was a somewhat unexpected blockbuster which has paid dividends for the Tampa Bay Rays who are currently in the thick of the postseason race.
Before the 2018 season, Meadows was rated by Baseball America as the 44th best prospect in baseball. That was a dip from his ranking six the previous season. That was due more to recurring injury issues than performance. Before being traded to the Rays, he had made his Major League debut, and he played 49 games for the Pirates hitting .292/.327/.468 (114 OPS+).
Glasnow was rated by Baseball America as the 23rd best prospect in baseball after the 2016 season. At the time of the trade, Glasnow had struggled in the Pirates rotation going 3-11 with a 5.79 ERA, 1.705 WHIP, 5.8 BB/9, and a 9.7 K/9 in 17 starts and 39 relief appearances. Still, Glasnow was a highly rated and touted young pitcher who had the “ceiling of a No. 1 starter.”
As if two Top 50 prospects who were Major League ready weren’t enough, the Pirates also sent Baz to the Rays. Baz was the Pirates 2017 first round draft pick (12th overall). Currently, Baz is rated as the 91st best prospect in the game by MLB Pipeline and the 88th best prospect by Baseball Prospectus. Overall, with Baz in the deal, that’s three top 100 talents for Archer.
At the time of the trade, Archer had three plus years of team control with him being owed $7.6 million in 2019 with a team option for $9 million in 2020 and $11 million in 2021. At that point in his career, Archer was 54-68 with a 3.69 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9, and a 9.7 K/9. Of note, since a career best 2015 season, he had a 100 ERA+ in 2016, 103 ERA+ in 2017, and a 97 ERA+ at the time of the trade. FIP paints a similar picture with him having a 3.81, 3.40, and 3.62 in the successive time periods.
For his part, Noah Syndergaard is currently 44-26 with a 3.20 ERA, 1.150 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9, and a 9.7 K/9. He is currently arbitration eligible, and he is under team control for two plus years. Like Archer, he has regressed since his career best season, which was 2016. Currently, he has a 94 ERA+, and he has a 3.67 FIP.
On the FIP point, Syndergaard’s FIP is ranked 21st in the majors, and he is pitching in front of the worst fielding team in the National League with the Mets having a -58 team DRS. By contrast, when Archer had a 3.62 FIP at the time of the trade to the Pirates, he was ranked 30th in the majors while playing in front of the fifth best defensive team in all of baseball in 2018.
There are two other factors to consider with Syndergaard. First, he is a second half pitcher with his second half ERA 44 points lower and a WHIP 23 points lower. He also has had tremendous postseason success. In four starts and one relief appearance, he is 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA, 3.8 BB/9, and a 12.5 K/9.
Those postseason performances include an electric shutout inning in a clinching Game 5 of the 2015 NLDS. It also included his picking up a win in Game 3 of the 2015 World Series. He would also go toe-to-toe with Madison Bumgarner for seven innings in the 2016 Wild Card Game. When you have a pitcher who can match zeros with Bumgarner in a winner take all game, you know you have a special postseason performer.
Taking everything into account, Syndergaard is a better pitcher than Archer was when he was traded to the Pirates. Even with one less year of control, he is a more valuable trade commodity than Archer due to his being a top 20 starter in the league and his postseason experience. As a result, if the Mets contemplated trading Syndergaard, they should be receiving a more impressive haul than the three top 100 prospects the Rays received for Archer.
Given Brodie Van Wagenen’s trade history, a history which includes trading Justin Dunn and Jarred Kelenic in a deal for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, he is not the guy the Mets should trust making this deal. Ironically, the guy you would trust is Chaim Bloom, who was part of the Rays braintrust when they pulled off the Archer deal. Of course, Bloom lost out on the Mets GM job to Van Wagenen.
Overall, if the Mets were receiving two top end Major League ready talents plus another top 100 prospect, they should absolutely consider trading Syndergaard. However, given Van Wagenen’s trade history, there’s no way you can trust him moving Syndergaard. As a result, Syndergaard needs to remain a member of the Mets for the foreseeable future.
When the Mets season was on the line, and they still had a legitimate chance to make a run to get back into contention, Robinson Cano was 3-for-15 in the series against the Giants with no RBI, and he was 3 for his last 21. In the Mets 100th game of the season, when the team is nine games under .500 and basically forced to sell at the deadline, Cano finally showed up:
And now that’s number 320!
???
Canó hits another 2-run home run for his 3rd of the night and now the Mets lead 5-0!!#ItsOuttaHere @RobinsonCano#RaiseTheApple pic.twitter.com/pmGcZ9lfFn— Brad B ⚾️ (@celeBRADtion) July 24, 2019
Cano joined Kirk Nieuwenhuis and Lucas Duda as the only Mets to hit three homers in a home game. That may the best way to summarize this season. It took Cano 100 games to equal Kirk Nieuwenhuis.
Cano hitting these homers overshadowed what was supposed to be Round 2 between Pete Alonso and Chris Paddack. In the first matchup, Paddack threw his three fastest pitches of the year to Alonso striking him out two times. This matchup was a relative dud with Alonso going 0-1 with a walk off Paddack.
With Jason Vargas pitching well with six shut out one hit innings, the Mets were up 5-0 after seven and should’ve ended the game without drama.
Robert Gsellman has to rescue Tyler Bashlor from a seventh inning jam, and he’d allow a run in the eighth. In the ninth, Justin Wilson would walk the only two batters he faced pressing Edwin Diaz into the game for a save opportunity.
Diaz would make things interesting allowing an RBI double to Fernando Tatis, Jr. making it 5-2. Diaz wouldn’t let it get past that point shutting the door and earning his 22nd save of the year.
On the day, Cano provided the margin, and Diaz shut the door. One hundred games later we finally see how Brodie Van Wagenen drew things up.
Game Notes: Cano surpassed Damion Easley to become the oldest second baseman with a three home run game. It’s Cano’s first three home run game in his career.
In 2016, the Wild Card picture was all jumbled up like it is now with the Mets having a favorable second half schedule and a need to leapfrog a number of teams. That season turned around with a road trip to San Francisco.
Tonight, the Mets began a similarly pivotal series in San Francisco. Like in 2016, we would get Noah Syndergaard against Madison Bumgarner, and like last time, we’d get a real pitcher’s duel.
Jeff McNeil hit the first pitch of the game for a double, and he moved to third on a J.D. Davis single. This allowed him to score on a Pete Alonso double play. The Mets had a 1-0 lead, but Bumgarner would go on to retire 13 in a row after the Davis single.
Things were not as easy for Syndergaard, but he’d have equally as impressive results.
In the second, he worked around an Alex Dickerson leadoff triple. In the third, he worked around a Brandon Belt two out double. On the double, Juan Lagares couldn’t make a play on it reminding us all he’s no longer that type of defender anymore.
The Giants finally got to Syndergaard in the fourth loading the bases with one out. Fortunately, due to Pablo Sandoval making Sid Bream look like Usain Bolt, he was held up on a Mike Yastrzemski single. He would however score on a Kevin Pillar sacrifice fly. On the play, Davis misplayed it forcing him to make a leap, and thankfully, he came down with it.
Syndergaard would have to summon the magic again in the seventh. This time, it was Yastrzemski who led off the inning with a triple. After a Pillar ground out to the drawn in Todd Frazier, Joe Panik was intentionally walked to set up a double play and bring Bumgarner to the plate.
The decision was made easier with no one warming in the Giants bullpen. However, the strategy was rendered moot with Panik stealing second on a 3-1 pitch. There was no throw from Tomas Nido due to his framing the pitch and the jump Panik got with Syndergaard not even bothering to keep Panik close.
It would up not mattering as Syndergaard struck out Bumgarner, and he got Belt to fly out to end the inning. At 108 pitches, he was done after a strong and gutty performance. Like three years ago, the Mets were going to the bullpen, and Bumgarner pitched nine brilliant innings.
Fortunately, Conor Gillaspie hasn’t played baseball since 2017. As a result, we’d see Seth Lugo pitch a scoreless eighth and Luis Avilan pitch a scoreless ninth to send the game into extras. This would mean the Mets would get into the Giants bullpen.
Robinson Cano led off the 10th with a single off Will Smith. Amed Rosario then continued his torrid July with a hit. Cano would actually go first to third on the single to left, and with Alex Dickerson throwing to third, Rosario went to second on what was ruled a double.
Nido struck out, and Wilson Ramos, the last right-handed bat on the bench, pinch hit for Lagares. He was intentionally walked to load the bases, and Michael Conforto pinch hit for Avilan, and he struck out putting the inning on McNeil. In uncharacteristic fashion McNeil struck out to end the inning.
Overall, it was a bizarre inning for Mickey Callaway (or the texting Brodie Van Wagenen). Instead of pinch hitting Ramos for Nido, he pinch hit for Lagares. Then, he pinch ran Luis Guillorme for some reason thereby burning him and Ramos.
Edwin Diaz came on for the 10th, and he worked his way around a leadoff walk showing he can in fact pitch in tie games. That paved the way for Jeurys Familia to pitch the 11th. Again, Gillaspie wasn’t coming off that bench, and as such, Familia pitched a scoreless inning despite him pitching his third game in as many days.
With the options dwindling, Callaway double switched Robert Gsellman into the game with Dominic Smith going to right, McNeil going to second, and Cano being done for the night.
After Gsellman pitched a scoreless 12th, the Mets got something brewing in the 13th against Derek Holland, who had pitched 1.2 innings yesterday. He was pulled with runners at the corners and two outs for Trevor Gott with Alonso coming up to the plate.
That’s the benefit of Bumgarner going nine. As a result, Bruce Bochy can play the matchups in the 13th. That ability led to an Alonso fly out to end the jam. With that flyout, Alonso was 0-for-6 on the night.
Because of the curious decision to pinch run Guillorme earlier in the game, Steven Matz pinch hit for Gsellman in the 14th after Gsellman’s two scoreless innings.
Justin Wilson got himself into trouble in the 14th with a lead off walk, which was actually first and second with two outs. He was bailed out by a terrible check swing third strike call against Pillar, and then with the Giants without position players, he got to face and strike out tomorrow’s (today’s?) starter Tyler Beede to end the jam.
Williams Jerez came on for the 15th for the Giants, and he was in immediate trouble walking Nido and allowing a one out single to Conforto. For third time in extras, McNeil had a chance to get the big hit. This time he hit into a 3-6 fielder’s choice. Davis would follow with a foul out.
In the bottom of the 15th, Chris Mazza, a 29 year old rookie who pitched two innings in the previous game, entered to pitch. He got through the inning setting the stage for Alonso to get his first hit in his seven at-bats:
To the seagulls and beyond! pic.twitter.com/y4ueAKXIBL
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 19, 2019
Because baseball is a cruel sport, Dickerson and Crawford hit back-to-back doubles to begin the 16th to tie the game, and Mazza hit Austin Slater. Of course, there was no other option than Mazza with Rhame serving his suspension, so he and he alone had to get out of it.
Pillar singled to load the bases with no outs. This meant the Mets went to five infielders and drew everyone in. It didn’t matter as Donovan Solano hit one past Alonso to end the Mets four game winning streak.
This is as soul crushing as it gets.
Game Notes: Brandon Nimmo has begun baseball activities, but he’s still about a month away from a rehab assignment. Jacob Rhame‘s appeal was heard, and his suspension was reduced to one game making him unavailable for this game.
With Zack Wheeler on the Injured List, and his being unsure as to when he can return, the Mets biggest trade chip has now been compromised. As a result, a player who could have fetched one or possible two very good prospects may not fetch nearly the same level of return. This leaves the Mets organization pondering what to do with Wheeler and really all of their trade assets.
Working backwards a bit, Wheeler is not the only expiring contract the Mets have. There is Juan Lagares, who really has zero value on the trade market between his contract and his regression both offensively and defensively. After him is Jason Vargas, who has failed to go at least five innings in 40 percent of his starts. Vargas also threatened to attack a reporter, and he has had a 5.94 ERA since the incident. That in mind, it’s unlikely he has any value on the trade market.
Todd Frazier is having a nice season, but again, you wonder what his market will be. To put things in perspective, in 2017, he was traded by the White Sox to the Yankees for a package including Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo, Blake Rutherford, and Tyler Clippard. Rutherford was a really good get for the White Sox, but that was mostly because they were trading Tommy Kahnle in the deal. Kahnle had been a very good reliever for a year plus, and he was under team control for four plus years.
For the Mets to get a similar return for Frazier, they would have to package him with an Edwin Diaz or a Seth Lugo. Based upon reports, the Mets are not interested in doing that, and you could understand that with the Mets having a young core still intact. It is also a reason the Mets are not looking to move Noah Syndergaard. As a result, the Mets really do not have any good trade chips; at least trade chips which will return anything more than the collection of right-handed relievers they received when they previously traded Addison Reed, Lucas Duda, and Jay Bruce.
Looking deeper, the Mets are “only” five games (four in the loss) out of the second Wild Card. At the moment, it is noticeable how the teams in front of them have done almost nothing to get going and really stake a claim to being a front runner for one of the two Wild Card spots. This is not too dissimilar from what we saw in 2016 where the Mets went from two games under .500 on August 19 to finish the season on a 27-13 tear to claim the top Wild Card spot.
Believe it or not, the Mets schedule actually does set up for another run like this. After today’s game against the White Sox, the Mets have 20 straight games against teams with a losing record. After that, they have a set at home against the Nationals, a team who currently has the top Wild Card spot.
That’s an incredible 23 game opportunity for the Mets to go on a real run up the Wild Card standings. This could be a team which could take full advantage of that opportunity because as Syndergaard said in 2016, the Mets are a second half team.
Wheeler has always been a strong second half pitcher. Same goes for Syndergaard whose career second half ERA is 38 points lower. Jacob deGrom has a better second half WHIP, K/9, and K/BB. In addition to the starters, we should expect to see a much better bullpen with the return of Justin Wilson. In fact, we have so far with the Mets bullpen ERA being 3.86 in July, which is 11th best in the majors and significantly better than the almost impossibly bad 7.53 June bullpen ERA.
There’s also the Amed Rosario factor. Over the past month, he is hitting .342/.365/.468 indicating he may be poised for a second half breakout. Very quietly, he has started to play better defense. In fact, since the All-Star Break, he is actually a 2 DRS. It’s a small sample size for sure, but it’s a positive development.
When you also consider how Michael Conforto and Robinson Cano are better hitters in the second half, you see a glimmer of hope. Speaking of Cano, with him and Edwin Diaz, you have to believe their second halves have to be better than their first.
Is this enough for the Mets to go out and buy? No, not even close. According to Fangraphs, the Mets postseason odds stand at 7.6 percent. Those are nearly insurmountable odds. However, that does not mean the Mets should go selling their players for little to no return when the schedule does set up favorably for them.
In the end, this is really about Wheeler. If he was healthy, the Mets could have received a significant return for him. If his IL stint changes things, it would behoove the Mets to offer him a qualifying offer at the end of the season and just let things ride with this team. After all, there is still a chance.
The Mets had a two game set against the Twins as they continued their nine game road trip where they hoped to possibly bring themselves back into the Wild Card race:
1. Amed Rosario is playing the best baseball of his MLB career. Not only has he been red hot in July, but he has also played to a 2 DRS at short since the All Star Break. It’s a small sample size for sure, but it’s all a very encouraging sign.
2. Another good sign from the middle infield is Robinson Cano hitting again. His July numbers are reminiscent of the Cano of old, and like we saw on Tuesday, even when he’s not hitting, he can still drive in a run with an out.
3. Michael Conforto seems to have shaken off the effects of his concussion earlier in the year. In addition to his hitting like Conforto again, he made a terrific play in center field to rob Nelson Cruz of an extra base hit.
4. People calling Conforto overrated or a bust absolutely know nothing about baseball. It should be noted before his concussion, Conforto was hitting ..271/.406/.521 and in the 39 games after leading into the break he hit .217/.309/.420. We should be highlighting with Jason Bay and Ryan Church the Mets have a putrid history of dealing with players with concussions and not how a player struggles after suffering one.
5. Steven Matz‘s final line looked much better than how he pitched. He was hit hard by the Twins, and he was really lucky to allow just two earned over four. Still, it’s a positive step from where he was a month ago, so the hope is he can build off of it. Note, the use of the word hope and not expect.
6. Like Matz, Edwin Diaz has been hit really hard of late, and he is escaping trouble. While he converted that save on Tuesday, that was far too much of a high wire act, and it’s questionable how long the Mets can hang with these 20+ pitch innings and his walking the tightrope.
7. Even with Diaz allowing lasers, the bullpen has been MUCH better of late. After a 7.53 bullpen ERA in June, the team has a 3.78 July bullpen ERA which is tied for 10th best in the majors. This is partially the result of the Mets leaning on Seth Lugo perhaps more than they should and the return of Justin Wilson from the IL.
8. It looks like Ricky Bones helped fixed Jeurys Familia. He had two big and important appearances. We also saw him throwing that 99 MPH sinker again. Maybe this was all just mechanical with him, and that may or may not have been attributable to the shoulder issues. In any event, Familia finally looks like he is back on track.
9. We only get small snapshots of teams in Interleague Play, especially in two game sets, but it’s surprising to see this Twins team being atop the AL Central. Is this the result of the AL depth being that bad, or was this just a bad series? In any event, you take a two game sweep against a good team.
10. That six run inning against the Twins was huge. It took what could have been a tightrope walk with a bullpen leaned on heavily a bit of late, and it allowed the Mets to go to Chris Mazza to eat up two innings. That is a huge development which cannot be undersold.
11. While Dominic Smith hit the go-ahead pinch hit three run homer, it was Pete Alonso‘s 474 foot blast anyone could talk about. Certainly, that’s all Steve Gelbs wanted to talk about with Smith in the postgame. That and his striking out against a position player. To that end, why does everyone find Gelbs so charming? I don’t get it.
12. Gary Discarcina not sending Rosario to go try to get that inside-the-park homer was no fun at all.
13. It is really surprising the Mets would catch Wilson Ramos in a day game after a night game given his injury history and the fact the Mets were about to get on a flight to go to San Francisco after the game. You have to wonder how much the wear and tear here will linger.
14. Mets need to watch their usage of Lugo. As the pressure has ratcheted up a bit, they keep going to the whip there. When they did that with Robert Gsellman earlier in the year, they lost him. Really, at some point, the Mets need to learn this lesson before they lose a key piece.
15. Right now, you should feel good about the Mets. Whether we should feel good a week from now will depend on how they play.
16. With a 0.2 WAR, Wilmer Font was the best performing player Brodie Van Wagenen obtained via trade, and he was designated for assignment and traded to the Blue Jays for cash considerations. This is both hilarious and a fine example of how completely inept Van Wagenen has been as the Mets General Manager.
17. Mets fans seem to want to defend the team on designating Travis d’Arnaud for assignment much like how they defend the team’s decisions on Daniel Murphy, Justin Turner, Hansel Robles, Collin McHugh, and others. Really, at what point do fans stop defending the team and just start asking why the Jeff Wilpon led team continues to make poor assessments and decisions like these?
18. Zack Wheeler getting hurt pretty much means the Mets need to hold onto him and offer him a qualifying offer because it’s doubtful the Mets are going to get a return commensurate with the comp pick they would receive if Wheeler rejected the offer and signed elsewhere.
19. People need to stop making luxury tax threshold excuses for the Mets for their building a team in 2020. Remember, that includes $15 million of David Wright‘s contract which is covered by insurance and has been settled by the Mets. Another $29.5 million is from Yoenis Cespedes‘ who has part of his contract covered by insurance. Finally, $12 million of Jacob deGrom‘s $25 million is deferred. The Mets can and should go over the luxury tax threshold next year if they really want to compete.
20. Now that this series is over, the Mets play 20 straight games against teams with a losing record. After that, they have three against the Phillies, who currently hold the second Wild Card spot. If you have hopes the Mets can make a run, there it is.
With Zack Wheeler landing on the IL, the Mets needed to start Steven Matz a day sooner than the Mets had wanted. The bad news was the Twins were hitting rockets off of him all night. The good news is he would get some help by the outfield defense:
Crash Conforto. ? pic.twitter.com/pbBfG7TPTJ
— New York Mets (@Mets) July 17, 2019
That catch would not be Michael Conforto‘s lone contribution to the game. He was 4-for-4 at the plate with a key RBI.
The Mets initially took a 2-0 lead against Michael Pineda and the Twins due to some terrible defense. Jeff McNeil and Conforto led off the game with back-to-back singles. They then moved up a base on a Jason Castro passed ball.
A Robinson Cano sacrifice fly made it 1-0. A Pineda wild pitch advanced Conforto to third allowing him to score when Jonathan Schoop made a throwing error on a Wilson Ramos ground ball. After the inning, you wondered how the Mets only had two runs after that comedy of errors.
You were also wondering when the Twins were going to get to Matz who was not sharp.
The first run would come off a Schoop third inning lead off homer. The tying run came in the fourth.
After an Eddie Rosario leadoff single, C.J. Cron hit an opposite field double. Even with the Mets leaving second vacant and no one getting a ball thrown to second immediately, Rosario stayed put. He’d score on a Max Kepler RBI groundout.
To his credit, Matz bore down. He fooled Miguel Sano with a changeup to get a strikeout. He’d intentionally walk Schoop to pitch to Castro. On a 1-2 pitch, Schoop broke for second. As noted by Ron Darling, the Mets rarely throw through in those spots. They did tonight, and they got Schoop before Cron could even think about heading home.
Matz, who was limited to 80 pitches due to his temporary move to the bullpen, was done after four. In some ways, he was lucky to leave after allowing just two earned on somehow just five hits. Then again, he did bear down when needed. It nothing else, it was a step forward.
The Mets took the lead in the fifth on a rally started on a one out Amed Rosario double. He’d score on a Conforto two out RBI single.
The Mets would have a chance to build on this lead in the eighth, but they would absolutely squander it. After a Conforto one out single, Pete Alonso walked. This time, it was a Mitch Garver passed ball moving the runners up a base.
Conforto broke on the Cano grounder, and he was dead to rights. He had a half hearted attempt to get into a run down, but there was no use. On the play, Alonso had a TOOBLAN needlessly breaking for third and getting thrown out to end the jam. It was a rare double play where Cano hit a grounder, didn’t run it out, and he was the only one safe on the play.
Fortunately, the Mets inability to add insurance runs didn’t hurt them as their bullpen was good enough.
In the fifth, after Robert Gsellman got himself into a jam, Luis Avilan came on to bail him out. After Avilan walked Sano with two outs in the sixth, Jeurys Familia got Schoop to ground out. Justin Wilson and Seth Lugo pitched back-to-back scoreless innings to put the game in Edwin Diaz‘s hands.
It wasn’t easy.
After he made quick work of Sano, he was 0-2 on Schoop. Schoop hurt himself on a swing, and the pick hitter Luis Arraez had a great at-bat to earn a walk. Garver then ripped a single to left to put the tying run on second.
After a Jorge Polanco fly out, Marwin Gonzalez hit a dribbler to third which Todd Frazier had no option to eat. Diaz’s former teammate Nelson Cruz came up with the bases loaded, and he worked the count full. After a foul ball, Frazier was able to make a play on a foul out.
Suddenly, the Mets bullpen is getting big outs, and the Mets are winning three straight on the road. It’s too early to get excited, but it’s not too early to notice.
Game Notes: Jacob Rhame, who has a two game suspension pending appeal was called up to take Wheeler’s spot on the roster.
For the second time this year, I was privileged to be invited to be a guest on A Metsian Podcast. What made this appearance all the more entertaining was I was on at the same time as The Coop and Metstradamus.
Off the top of my head, players I specifically mentioned included Pete Alonso, Jacob deGrom, Jeff McNeil, Edwin Diaz, Noah Syndergaard, J.D. Davis, Anthony Kay, Wilson Ramos, Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, Craig Kimbrel, Jason Vargas, Tomas Nido, Scott Kazmir, Victor Zambrano, and more.
I hope you enjoy listening to it as much as I enjoyed participating.
The Mets begin the second half of the season 10 games under .500 and 13.5 games back of the Braves for the division. They are only six games ahead of the Marlins for the worst record in the National League and seven games behind the second Wild Card with nine teams ahead of them. Suffice it to say, things are bleak, and the Mets are going to be in a position to sell rentals like Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, and Jason Vargas.
Still, being Mets fans, we have examples in team history where they have overcome long odds like these to reach the postseason. The 1973 Mets entered the All Star Break nine games under .500 and six games out of first place. Even more recently, the 2016 Mets entered the All Star Break six games out of first place. That team would be two games under .500 and 5.5 games out of a postseason spot on August 19th. They would finish the season on a tear and claim the top Wild Card.
Based on history, we can see there is always a chance. The question now is do the 2019 Mets actually have a chance. Looking at everything, you could paint a scenario where they do.
The first thing to look at is the Mets schedule. Right now, the Mets have six games against the Phillies and three against the Nationals. With both teams currently having a Wild Card spot, this gives the Mets a chance to get closer in the Wild Card race by beating their direct competition.
Beyond the head-to-head match-ups, the Mets do have a weak second half schedule. Right off the bat is a 10 game road trip featuring three against the last place Marlins and four against the last place Giants. In fact, the Mets have 18 games remaining against teams who are currently in last place.
Looking further, 36 of the Mets remaining 72 games are against teams with a .500 record or worse. That’s half of their games. So far this year, the Mets have fared well in those games. In their 21 games against second division clubs, they are 13-8 (.619). Now, to make up the deficits, the Mets are going to have to play at a higher clip than that. It’s certainly possible, especially with 11 of those 36 games coming against teams currently 20+ games under .500.
The Mets also have six more games at home than they do on the road. This is an important point because the Mets have actually played over .500 at home with a .548 winning percentage.
That schedule certainly lines up well for the Mets to have a big second half for a second year in a row. Remember, last year, the Mets were eight games over .500 in the second half last year, and as Noah Syndergaard will tell you, the Mets are a second half team.
That is partially the result of how their players perform. Syndergaard’s career second half ERA is 38 points lower, Jacob deGrom‘s K/BB improves considerably in the second half, and Steven Matz strikes out 1.4 batters more per nine. Michael Conforto‘s second half career OPS is 65 points higher, and Robinson Cano‘s is 55 points higher.
Speaking of Cano, the Mets have had a number of under-performing players who had an opportunity to clear their heads and fix things for the second half. The Mets will be a significantly better team with Cano returning or coming much closer to career averages. The same can be said of Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia.
There is also the chance the Mets finally get that Amed Rosario breakout. The Mets could also potentially get help from a rookie like Anthony Kay. Overall, for the Mets to have any shot, they need players like this to raise their games with the veterans stepping up their performances. With that schedule, maybe, must maybe, the Mets could contend in the second half.
However, this is asking a lot. In addition to everyone stepping up, the Mets need Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, and Dominic Smith to keep up a very high level of performance. If they want to contend, they will have to hang onto Wheeler, which given their place in the standings is flat out irresponsible.
All things considered it is fun to imagine, but the chances of it all happening are remote. Really, the best we can hope for is Brodie Van Wagenen executing smart deadline deals with Jed Lowrie and Brandon Nimmo healing and being ready to put forth strong 2020 campaigns.
After discussing it most of the offseason, the Mets are once again in a position where they are talking with teams about Noah Syndergaard. There are smart teams with interesting farm systems interested in the Mets starter. Depending on the packages offered, the Mets could be very tempted to move Syndergaard.
They shouldn’t.
One of the arguments you hear from some circles is you shouldn’t trade him because his value is at a nadir. With Syndergaard having a career worst ERA, ERA+, FIP, HR/9, BB/9, K/9, and K/BB, this is absolutely true. Seeing studies and Syndergaard’s comments, it is possible these results are reflective of the new ball. The Mets having a National League worst defense doesn’t help either.
Reasonably speaking, you could anticipate Syndergaard to rebound and led the Mets back to contention in 2020. If you trade him, it’s difficult to imagine the Mets contending anytime soon.
Looking at 2020 first, it’s hard to imagine the Mets having that one year turnaround. With Syndergaard traded and Zack Wheeler gone either via trade or free agency, the Mets have two spots to fill in the rotation. That becomes three when Jason Vargas‘ option is declined. Even assuming Anthony Kay is ready to begin the year in the rotation, the Mets still have two spots to fill in the rotation.
Given the Mets budget and historical unwillingness to spend big on starting pitchers on the free agent market, it is difficult to believe the team could build a starting rotation good enough to win in 2020. Theoretically, the Mets could fill in the rotation by making Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo starters again. However, this makes an already terrible bullpen worse, and you will likely be dealing with innings limits.
Long story short, if the Mets trade Syndergaard they will not be able to build the type of pitching staff which would let them compete in 2020. This means the Mets will have to look towards 2021. Notably, Michael Conforto and Steven Matz will be free agents after the completion of that season.
Given the uncertainty of the readiness of David Peterson and/or Franklyn Kilome to join the rotation by then, there is doubt whether the Mets pitching staff would be ready to compete by then. While this is happening, the Mets will be in year three of Robinson Cano‘s contract. That’s a consideration which needs to be accounted for when analyzing the Mets ability to compete in 2020 or 2021.
Realistically speaking, depending on the return the Mets receive for Syndergaard, the team will not be in a position to really compete again until 2022 at the earliest. With that being the scenario, the Mets should also be looking to trade Conforto for a big return as well because the team is not going to win before he becomes a free agent.
By that 2022 season, you will have wasted the first three years of Pete Alonso‘s and Jeff McNeil‘s careers, and they will be arbitration eligible. It will be the same situation for other cost controlled assets like Lugo and Edwin Diaz. This coupled with Cano’s big contract will once again infringe on the Mets payroll flexibility.
Therefore, the Mets ability to win in 2022 will hinge on what the Mets bring aboard in moving Syndergaard and maybe Conforto. It will depend on how quickly players like Mark Vientos, Shervyen Newton, Ronny Mauricio, Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty can develop to help the team. While you can be high on them now, it is a completely different situation to count on them to develop in time to make you a winner.
That is the situation you are in if you trade Syndergaard now. You are beginning the dismantling the core to try to compete three years from now. If the prospects don’t develop the way you intended, or players get hurt, everything falls apart. As an organization, you have to ask yourself if that is really worth it when the team is really just a center fielder and 1-2 bullpen arms away from contending next year.
When you look at it through the prism of when the Mets could actually be in a window to contend again, the team cannot trade Syndergaard now. That is, unless, the team either starts spending now, or Brodie Van Wagenen proves himself to be much more adept at trades than he did last offseason. We shouldn’t be hopeful on either development happening.