Dilson Herrera

Jay Bruce Should Listen To Kevin Long

In the three seasons before Yoenis Cespedes became a New York Met, he was a .263/.316/.464 hitter who averaged 24 homers and 87 RBI.  Since becoming a New York Met, Cespedes has been a .282/.348/.554 hitter with 162 game averages of 41 homers and 111 RBI.

In Curtis Granderson‘s first year with the Mets, he was a .227/.326/.388 hitter with 20 homers and 66 RBI.  Over the past two seasons, Granderson has been a .248/.350/.460 hitter who has averaged 28 homers and 64 RBI.

In the three years before the Mets acquired Neil Walker from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Walker was a .264/.336/.438 hitter who averaged 18 homers and 67 RBI.  In his Pirates career as a right-handed batter, Walker was a career .260 hitter with just six home runs over the course of seven seasons.  Last year, Walker was a .282/.347/.476 hitter with 23 homers and 55 RBI in just 113 games.  From the right side of the plate, he was a .330/.391/.610 hitter with eight homers.

In the three years before Asdrubal Cabrera signed a free agent deal with the Mets, he was a .249/.307/.405 hitter who averaged 14 homers and 61 RBI.  Last year, Cabrera was a .280/.336/.474 hitter with 23 homers and 62 RBI.  It should also be noted he was one of if not the best hitter over the last two months of the season.

With this quartet of players, we see a definite trend of what happens when the Mets hitters being working with hitting coach Kevin Long.  Whatever it is he specifically does, he has the ability to help batters not only hit for more power, but also improve their OBP.  While Long’s detractors will point out there are players that haven’t performed well under his tutelage like Travis d’Arnaud and Michael Conforto last year, there are players like the aforementioned players and Daniel Murphy who have improved.  The point is overall hitters tend to improve in terms of OBP and slugging under Long.

With Long’s seeming ability to help players in these two key areas, Jay Bruce would be wise to work closely with his new hitting coach this season.

Over the course of his career, Bruce has been a .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged a 27 homers and 82 RBI a season with most of his damage being done at The Great American Ballpark where he is a .254/.328/.500 hitter. Basically, Bruce has basically been a slugger that not only does not know how to draw a walk, but he is also a product of his former home ballpark.  At least that was the perception.  That perception was not helped when Bruce hit .219/.294/.391 in 50 games with the Mets last season.

This is a large reason why he did not garner much interest on the trade market.  It may very well be a reason why he will have difficulty getting a large free agent deal next offseason.

It’s odd when you think about it because Bruce has the potential to be a 30 HR/100 RBI hitter.  He is your prototypical slugger who has been a three time All Star, two time Silver Slugger, and has a top 10 MVP finish in his career.  There is real talent there.  He just needs help to become a more well-rounded hitter.  As we have seen with most of the Mets roster, Long has helped the Mets hitters on that front.

If Bruce does improve his OBP and he hits for more power, the Mets are going to have the left-handed power threat they thought they were getting when they acquired him in exchange for Dilson Herrera and Max Wotell.  He is also going to help garner the interest for his services that we just not present this offseason.  Overall, the working relationship between Bruce and Long can be a mutually beneficial relationship.

It’s a relationship both Bruce’s and the 2017 Mets’ future hinges upon.

New Year’s Resolutions

We are headed for another season of Mets baseball where we hope that once again these Mets can make it all the way back to the World Series.  Since 2015, we have seen a definite pattern emerge with the Mets, and I think as Mets fans, we should all try better this year to not react, some would say overreact, when one of the following things we know will happen, happens:

  • The Mets are not going to sign another big name free agent this offseason.  It’s not going to happen, and it just may happen that Jose Bautista winds up in the division and on a fairly discounted deal;
  • Jerry Blevins will sign an extremely reasonable two year deal . . . with another team;
  • Instead of fortifying the bench, the Mets are going to go with this year’s version of Eric Campbell -> Ty Kelly;
  • Terry Collins is going to use and abuse Addison Reed to the point where his arm may actually fall off.  This will go double if Jeurys Familia gets suspended;
  • Hansel Robles is going to go through a stretch in one week where he pitches five innings, 1/3 of an inning, two innings, and three innings, and everyone is going to wonder why his production has fallen off;
  • The infield of Lucas Duda, Neil Walker, David Wright, and Asdrubal Cabrera will be ridden hard despite their injury histories and capable backups like Wilmer Flores and Jose Reyes on the bench;
  • Just pick a random player on the roster – he’s going to be on the DL for over two months with a back injury;
  • There will be a game with Reyes in center and Juan Lagares in right;
  • Travis d’Arnaud is going to get injured, and Kevin Plawecki is not going to be able to replace his bat in the lineup;
  • Matt Harvey will complain about the six man rotation that will be implemented at some point during the season;
  • Robert Gsellman will make an appearance throwing well over 100 pitches in five innings or less;
  • Rene Rivera will hit under the Mendoza Line;
  • T.J. Rivera will be raking in AAA and not get called up despite the Mets needing some offense;
  • Michael Conforto will not face one left-handed pitcher all season;
  • Yoenis Cespedes will not dive for a ball, run out a pop up, or run hard to first on a dropped strike three;
  • Curtis Granderson will have a better OBP than Reyes, but Collins will continue to lead off Reyes and his sub .330 OBP;
  • Collins will not know if Brandon Nimmo is faster than Flores and it will cost them a game;
  • No matter where he winds up this offseason, and no matter how poor his year is going, Chase Utley will hit two home runs in a game he faces the Mets;
  • Sandy Alderson will mortgage a part of the Mets future because he didn’t make a move in the offseason that he should have made;
  • Paul Sewald will pitch well in AAA, but the Mets won’t call him up because they would rather rip Sean Gilmartin or Gabriel Ynoa from the Vegas rotation to make a relief appearance on 2-3 days of rest;
  • Both Josh Smoker and Robles will be fully warmed up, and Collins will go to Smoker to pitch to the lefty;
  • For reasons the Mets themselves can’t quite explain, Rafael Montero will spend the full season on the 40 man roster;
  • d’Arnaud will come off the disabled list, play well for a stretch, and the Mets will lose him and Steven Matz in the same game;
  • Matz will have appendicitis, but the Mets will talk him out of the surgery because they need him to start against the Reds;
  • Dilson Herrera will tear it up every time he plays the Mets;
  • Wherever he lands, Jay Bruce is going to hit 30 homers and 100 RBI;
  • Collins will show up in the dugout without wearing pants, and the Mets still won’t fire him;
  • Noah Syndergaard will get ejected from a game for throwing inside.  A player who takes a bat to one of the Mets infielders in retaliation won’t;
  • Fans will clamor for Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith to get called up all season long;
  • Seth Lugo will bounce between the bullpen and rotation so much, MLB is actually going to test him to see if his arm is actually made out of rubber;
  • Bartolo Colon will pitch so poorly against the Mets, fans will wonder why they wanted a bum like him back;
  • R.A. Dickey will not only beat the Mets, but he will throw the team into a week  long offensive funk causing some fans to decry the trade;
  • One or more pitchers will get hurt, and fans that even question if the Warthen Slider could be an issue will be mocked mercilessly;
  • Some way some how Jon Niese will pitch for this team;
  • Rather than build Tom Seaver a statue, the Mets will issue #41 to Niese upon his return to the team;
  • Daniel Murphy will have another terrific year for the Nationals, and some Mets fans will still defend the decision to let him go;
  • Ricky Knapp will make a solid spot start for the Mets causing fans to think he is the second coming;
  • Mets will trade a good prospect for Kelly Johnson; and
  • Despite all of this the Mets will make it to the postseason

Honestly, I give it until April 9th when Collins declares the last game in a three game set against the Marlins is a must-win game.

Cespedes Is Back, Now What?

Last offseason, the Mets re-signing Yoenis Cespedes put the final touches on the team everyone hoped would compete for a World Series.  This year, the re-signing of Cespedes is really just a start for a team that still needs to make a number of moves this offseason.  Here is a look at the moves the Mets still need to make:

TRADE JAY BRUCE

With Cespedes back, Jay Bruce likely becomes the outfielder the Mets will trade this offseason.  In his nine year career, Bruce has been a .248/.318/.467 hitter who has averaged 27 homers and 82 RBI.  At $13 million next season, that production is arguably a bargain.  That is probably a reason why teams have been in contact with the Mets trying to inquire what the team will want in exchange for Bruce.  While it is hard to believe the Mets will be able to bring in a prospect like Dilson Herrera or a player that will have a similar impact that Bruce will have in 2017, it should not be ruled out that the Mets will be able to acquire a player of consequence that will help the team next season.

DETERMINE MICHAEL CONFORTO’S POSITION

If the Mets are going to trade Bruce, it is another sign that the Mets see Michael Conforto as an everyday player.  Where he will be an everyday player remains to be seen.  With Cespedes returning for four years with a no trade clause, the only thing we know is that Conforto will not be the teams everyday left fielder anytime soon.  That leaves center and right field.

During Conforto’s time in AAA last year, he began learning both positions.  In his limited time in the majors at both positions, he showed he may very well be able to handle either position on an everyday basis.  However, given the presence of Juan Lagares on this team, the best thing for Conforto and the Mets is to transition him to right field.  Let him get fully acclimated there and focus on getting back to where he was April of last year.  This will also let Lagares and Curtis Granderson handle center field duties next season, which was a platoon that may work very well for the Mets next year.

OBTAIN A LOOGY

Last year, Jerry Blevins had a terrific year out of the bullpen for the Mets as a LOOGY.  In fact, he proved to be a bit more as he had a career best year pitching against right-handed batters.  However, he is a free agent now, and the Mets do not appear as if they are able or inclined to give him the multi-year deal that he may command in free agency.

The internal left-handed options are Josh Edgin and Josh Smoker.  Edgin did have some success against left-handed batters in limited duty in the majors last year, but with his velocity still not having fully returned after his Tommy John surgery, it is hard to rely upon him in any capacity next year.  Smoker had outstanding strikeout rates in the minors and the majors last year, but he has reverse splits.  Therefore, the Mets are going to have to look outside the organization to figure out who will be the first lefty out of the pen next season.

OBTAIN ONE OR MORE LATE INNING RELIEVERS

The Mets bullpen really is in a state of flux at the moment due to the Jeurys Familia domestic violence arrest.  Pending an investigation by MLB, it is possible that Familia will miss a significant number of games next season.  If that is the case, Addison Reed should prove more than capable of closing games in Familia’s absence.  This begs the question of who will step up and take over Reed’s role in the short term.

It was a question the Mets faced most of 2016, and they did not find a good answer until they obtained Fernando Salas on the eve of the waiver trade deadline.  Given his late inning and closing experience, Salas would be a good option to pitch in the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning next year.  However, he is a free agent at the moment meaning the Mets are going to have to presumably sign or trade for someone to take over this role.  In fact, the Mets may very well need two late inning relievers to address the bullpen.

SIGN A VETERAN STARTER

The one lesson learned from the 2016 season should be that once again you can never have too much pitching.  With the return of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz, the Mets rotation is almost complete.  The question is who will become the team’s fifth starter.

The first name that will be mentioned is Zack Wheeler.  However, after missing all of 2015 and 2016, no one can be quite certain he is ready and able to assume the fifth starter’s role.  The next names that will be mentioned are Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.  Both pitched quite well for the Mets in the stretch run last year, but the Mets may prefer to have a veteran arm who is able to eat up innings and/or can go deeper into the season than any of the aforementioned pitchers.  Preferably, the pitcher they do sign would be willing to move to the bullpen in the event Wheeler, Lugo, or Gsellman wins the job in Spring Training or is ready to take over at some point during the season.

FIGURE OUT THE BACK-UP CATCHER SITUATION

Even with Rene Rivera back in the fold and despite his excellent work with Noah Syndergaard, there is still room for improvement on the catching front.  Many will mention the recently non-tendered Wellington Castillo, but people should realize he’s an average hitter at best. Moreover, he’s a terrible pitch framer. Mets need to do better than that, but to be fair, that may not be possible. 

Whatever the Mets decide to do, they first have to realize that Kevin Plawecki has twice proven he should not be relied upon to be the team’s primary back-up catcher.  Next, the Mets have to realize they need a viable backup who can handle playing a number of games due to Travis d’Arnaud‘s injury history.

There are some other matters that need to be figured out as well.  For example, do you want Ty Kelly and T.J. Rivera competing for the last spot on the bench, or do you want to re-sign Kelly Johnson?  The answer to this and many other questions will largely depend on how much money the Mets have to spend the offseason and/or what the Mets are able to obtain in exchange for Bruce.

Cespedes was a great start to the offseason, but the Mets work is far from over.

A Look Back at the Mets 2006 Draft

Ten years ago, Omar Minaya had his second draft as the manager of the New York Mets.  With the team having signed Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran in the offseason, they would not have a first round draft pick.  In total, the Mets would draft 49 players, and they would be able to sign 35 of them.  Of the 49 players drafted, six of the players would play in the major leagues.  Here is  review of those players that were drafted and played in the major leagues:

Kevin Mulvey, LHP (2nd Round, 62nd Overall)

Mulvey was a fairly well-regarded fastball-changeup pitcher out of Villanova, who shot through the Mets minor league system.  In his first full professional season, he started in AA, and he finished the year with one start in New Orleans, which was then the Mets AAA affiliate.

In the offseason, Mulvey was a significant piece in the trade that brought Johan Santana to the Mets.  Notably, he was the only player drafted by Minaya to be included in the deal.

Mulvey would not last long with the Twins.  He spent a year and half with the team, and he made a very brief major league appearance with them in 2009.  He would become the player to be named later in a trade in which the Twins acquired Jon Rauch to help them not only win the AL Central, but also to help them in the postseason.

Mulvey would not pitch well for the Diamondbacks.  In 2009 and 2010, he would only make four starts and four relief appearances.  He would go 0-3 with a 6.92 ERA and a 1.615 WHIP.  In 2011, the Diamondbacks would designate him for assignment to remove him from the 40 man roster.  A year later, he would be outright released.

Mulvey caught back on with the Mets in 2012, and he was assigned to AA Binghamton.  After 13 relief appearances that saw him go 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA and a 1.707 WHIP, Mulvey retired from the game of baseball, and he returned to Villanova to be an assistant coach.  On July 14, 2016, he was named the head coach of the Villanova Wildcats.

In total, Mulvey only started four games and made six relief appearances over three major league seasons.  He finished with an 0-3 record, a 7.90 ERA, and a 1.756 WHIP.

Joe Smith, RHP (3rd Round, 94th Overall)

After losing Chad Bradford to free agency, the Mets decided the side winding Smith was ready to take over Bradford’s role in the bullpen.

Smith would pitch two seasons with the Mets making 136 appearances.  In those games, he would go 9-5 with a 3.51 ERA and a 1.402 WHIP.  While he could never match what Bradford did for the 2006 Mets, Smith was still a reliable bullpen arm so long as he was called to pitch to right-handed batters.

With the Mets bullpen falling to pieces during the 2008 season, the Mets sought a dominant reliever who could pitch in the eighth inning and who could be a reliable closing option in the event the Mets closer once again succumbed to injury.  With that in mind, Smith was included as a part of a three-team deal that netted the Mets J.J. Putz.  Ironically, it was Smith who would have the best career out of all the relievers in the deal.

During Smith’s five year tenure with the Indians, he got better and better each season as he got better and better pitching to left-handed batters.  He went from being a reliever who got just righties out to an eighth inning set-up guy.  Because of that, he got a big three year $15.75 million contract from the Angels when he hit free agency for the first time.

While Smith regressed a bit during his time with the Angels, he was still a very effective reliever.  Because he is still a very useful reliever, the Chicago Cubs obtained him after the non-waiver trade deadline.  Despite pitching well with a 2.51 ERA in 16 appearances for the Cubs, he was left off the postseason roster.  Smith is due to be a free agent after the season.

So far in Smith’s 10 year career, he has averaged 64 appearances and 57 innings per season.  He is 41-28 with 29 saves, a 2.93 ERA, and a 1.199 WHIP.

John Holdzkom, RHP (4th Round, 124th Overall)

Holdzkom was a high school pitcher with a big arm whose fastball could reach triple digits.  Initially, he posted big strike out numbers in the minors before needing season ending Tommy John surgery in 2008.  The surgery caused him to miss the entire 2009 season, and when he returned, he was never the same pitcher.

After six games in the rookie leagues in 2010, the Mets released him.  Holdzkom would take a year off from baseball before signing a minor league deal with the Cincinnati Reds.  He would struggle for two years in the Reds farm system before being released in June 2012.

From there, Holdzkom went to the Independent Leagues in the hopes of rekindling his hopes of becoming a major league pitcher.  With his fastball returning, he was dominant with high strikeout numbers once again, and he caught the attention of the Pittsburgh Pirates, who offered him a minor league deal.  In 2014, Holdzkom would actually appear in nine games for the Pirates pitching very well.  In those games, he was 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and a 0.667 WHIP.

Holdzkom would lose his fastball again, and he would never again be able to crack the Pirates major league roster.  On the eve of Opening Day, he was released by the Pirates, and he was eventually signed to a minor league contract by the Chicago White Sox.  While never appearing on an injury report anywhere, Holdzkom only made one appearance in 2016 for the White Sox rookie league affiliate in July.  In two-third of an inning, he allowed four runs on three hits and two walks.

As for this moment, it is unknown what lies in the future of this 28 year old pitcher who is still looking to reclaim his fastball.

Daniel Murphy 3B (13th Round, 394th Overall)

Murphy is the best known player from the Mets 2006 draft.  He got his start with the Mets in left field for a 2008 Mets team desperate for offense.  Murphy hit well enough that he was named the Opening Day left fielder in 2009.  That year it was apparent he was not an outfielder, and he began his transition to second base.

While there were some rough spots along the way, everything finally clicked for Murphy last postseason with him hitting home runs in six consecutive postseason games.  These home runs were all the more notable when you consider Murphy hit them off Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks.  His key steal and home run in Game 5 helped propel the Mets to the NLCS, and in the NLCS he was the obvious choice for MVP.

He signed with the Nationals, and he went out and proved his postseason run was no fluke.  Murphy hit .347/.390/.595 with 47 doubles, 25 homers, and 104 RBI.  All these numbers were career bests.  He led the National League in doubles, slugging, and OPS.

In his Mets career, Murphy hit .288/.331/.424 while averaging 33 doubles, nine homers, and 57 RBI per season.  Among Mets second baseman, Murphy is the all-time leader in games, at-bats, runs, hits, doubles, RBI, and batting average.  He is also ranked third overall for the most doubles by a player in a Mets uniform, and he is ranked eighth in batting average.

Tobi Stoner, RHP (16th Round, 484th Overall)

The German born Stoner was used as a starting pitching in the Mets minor league system.  However, in his brief time with the major league club, he was used exclusively out of the bullpen.  Between 2009 and 2010, Stoner made five appearances going 0-1 with a 3.97 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP.

After his big league call-ups, Stoner actually regressed.  That could be in part due to bone spurs in his elbow he had to have removed prior to the 2011 season.  Even with the removed bone spurs, Stoner could never get back to being the pitcher he was or who the Mets thought he could be, and he was released on the eve of the 2012 season.  Stoner would pitch the 2012 season in the Independent Leagues.  In 12 starts, he would have an 8.11 ERA, and his professional career was over after that season.

Josh Stinson, RHP (37th Round, 1,114th Overall)

Stinson was a high school pitcher with a mid 90’s fastball.  As he did not truly develop his secondary pitches, he became a bullpen arm.  With a his live arm, he got called-up in 2011, at the age of 23, and pitched in 14 games with the Mets recording a 6.92 ERA and a 1.615 WHIP.

The Mets relased him before the 2012 season, and he was claimed by the Brewers.  He pitched mostly in the minors for the Brewers.  Stinson did get a brief call-up where he actually pitched well.  Despite his success in a small sample size, he was released before the 2013 season, and he was eventually picked up by the Orioles.  He made 19 appearances with the Orioles, pitching to a 4.50 ERA, before he was granted free agency. Stinson signed a minor league deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he would not make it to the majors in the 2014 season.  The Pirates released him at the end of the year.

In the 2015 season, Stinson pitched for the Kia Tigers of the Korean Leauges.  In 30 starts and two relief appearances, Stinson was 11-10 with a 4.96 ERA and a 1.521 WHIP.  No one signed him to a professional contract to pitch in 2016.  According to Stinson’s Twitter account, the 28 year old still considers himself a free agent pitcher.

Vic Black, RHP (41st Round, 1,234th Overall)

The Mets drafted Black out of high school, but he would not sign a deal with the Mets.  Rather, he attended Dallas Baptist University, and he re-entered the draft in 2009 where the Pittsburgh Pirates would draft him in the first round (49th overall).  The Mets would acquire Black in 2013 as part of the trade that sent John Buck and Marlon Byrd to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for Black and Dilson Herrera.

In 2014, Black seemed to have a breakout season for the Mets.  He began to harness his high 90s fastball, and as a result, he was becoming a reliable bullpen arm.  Unfortunately, Black would land on the disabled list with a herniated disc in his neck.  When he tried to pitch through it, he eventually developed a shoulder strain.  He was first shut down, and then designated for assignment in the offseason.

While Black elected free agency, he hoped that he could re-sign with the Mets.  Neither the Mets nor any other major league team were interested in his services.  Black has not pitched in professional baseball in two years.  At the moment, it is unknown if he will be able to ever pitch again.

Johnny Monell, C (49th Round, 1,463rd Overall)

Like Black, Monell did not sign a contract with the Mets instead choosing to re-enter the draft at a later date.  He would be drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 30th round in the following draft.

From there, Monell has bounced around from organization to organization.  Finally, in 2014, he returned to the same Mets organization that had drafted him eight years prior.  Due to injuries to Travis d’Arnaud and the ineffectiveness of both Kevin Plawecki and Anthony Recker, Monell would be called-up to the Mets in 2015, and he would play in 27 games hitting .167/.231/.208 with two doubles and four RBI.  Monell would be sent back down to AAA where he would remain for the 2015 season.

The Mets would remove him from the 40 man roster after the 2015 season, and Monell would agree to return to the Mets.  Monell spent the entire 2016 season playing for the Las Vegas 51s.  He hit .276/.336/.470 with 22 doubles, one triple, 19 homers, and 75 RBI.  With Plawecki being sent down in favor of Rene Rivera, Monell became the backup catcher.  In order to get him into the lineup more, Monell saw some additional time at first base.  Monell finished the year tied for the team lead in homers and third in RBI.

At this point, it is not known if the Mets intend to bring back the 30 year old catcher to play for the 51s again in the 2017 season.

 

The Mets Coaching Staff Believed in Daniel Murphy

Despite slugging .533 over the last two months of the season, and homering in seven consecutive postseason games, including home runs off Clayton KershawZack GreinkeJon LesterJake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks, the Mets only made the perfunctory qualifying offer to NLCS MVP Daniel Murphy.  At the time, the qualifying offer was made no player had ever accepted the qualifying offer. 

The Mets thought process was grounded in several factors. First, they believed they could get Ben Zobrist, who they viewed as a superior player. Second, the Mets could recoup the first round draft pick they lost by signing Michael Cuddyer in the previous offseason. Third, and most importantly, the Mets didn’t foresee Murphy carrying that level of production for a full season in 2016 and beyond. 

That last point became all the more apparent when, after the Mets lost out in Zobrist, they traded Jon Niese (who was later re-acquired in exchange for Antonio Bastardo) for Neil Walker.  The Mets made this move despite never inquiring what it would take to re-sign Murphy. 

The logic of the Walker trade was the Mets were getting an All Star second baseman in his walk year. Should he perform, the Mets could either re-sign him, or they could make the qualifying offer and recoup another draft pick. Should he falter or leave in free agency, the Mets could turn the position over to second baseman of the future Dilson Herrera

Walker would have a career year for the Mets both at the plate and in the field. Overall, he would hit .282/.347/.476 with 23 homers and 55 RBI. Those numbers are even better when you consider that the switch hitting Walker was no longer a liability from the right side of the plate. Rather, he was a dominant force. 

Unfortunately, Walker would go through part of the summer unable to feel his feet due to a herniated disc. Despite his being in the best stretch of the season and the Mets fighting for the Wild Card, he would have to undergo season ending lumbar microdiscetomy surgery. 

While the Mets remain hopeful Walker will recover fully, and that the two sides can agree to a deal, nothing is guaranteed.  The Mets need Walker to recover with no issues because Herrera was moved in the trade to acquire Jay Bruce

Now, many will say this has all been a debacle as Murphy had an MVP caliber season for the rival Washington Nationals. This year, Murphy hit .347/.390/.595 with 47 doubles, five triples, 25 homers, and 104 RBI. He led the league in doubles, slugging, and OPS. Worse yet, he killed the Mets getting a hit in all 19 games against them while hitting .413/.444/.773 with six doubles, seven homers, and 25 RBI. 

In response to that, many will say judging the Mets decision on Murphy is unfair as: (1) no one saw this coming; and (2) you are using hindsight to criticize the Mets. 

That argument is unfounded. First and foremost, the General Manager is supposed to have foresight. He is paid to make sure what happened with Murphy never happens. Second, and most importantly, the argument is patently false. 

As Mets hitting coach Kevin Long told MLB Network Radio, “Daniel Murphy became a monster overnight, once he got it, you knew he wasn’t going to lose it.”  

Murphy certainly hasn’t lost it. In fact, he was even better leading the Nationals to an NL East title over the Mets. Tonight, he looks to recreate his incredible Game Five performance against the Dodgers so he can once again torture the Cubs in the NLCS. 

Meanwhile, the Mets are looking at their second base options, which assuredly are no better than Murphy, in what is an extremely weak free agent class, after being shutout in the Wild Card Game. It didn’t have to be this way as the Mets coaching staff saw Murphy putting together a season like this.

By the way, Anthony Kay, the pick the Mets received for Murphy becoming a National, had to have Tommy John surgery before he ever threw a pitch as a professional. 

Mets Need Lucas Duda

One of the reasons the Mets went out and obtained Jay Bruce at the trade deadline is the team felt they needed another power bat in the lineup other than Yoenis Cespedes.  Unfortunately, that trade hasn’t panned out well with Bruce hitting just .192/.271/.315 with just four homers and 11 RBI in 36 games as a Met.  Worse yet, the Mets gave up Dilson Herrera, who could’ve taken over as the second baseman when Neil Walker required season ending back surgery and Wilmer Flores injured his neck.

Bruce’s struggles could be alleviated if the team was getting production at first base.  However, James Loney has similarly struggled.  Since the All Star Break, Loney is hitting .249/.276/.329 with only eight extra base hits in 51 games.  These numbers are even worse when you consider Terry Collins has done all he could do to help Loney offensively by playing Flores at first against left-handed pitching.  Worse yet, Loney’s reputation as a Gold Glove caliber first baseman has been greatly overblown.  While defensive metrics for first base can be seen as imperfect, and cannot be fully trusted in a single season sample size, Loney has a -3.2 UZR and 0 DRS.  Combining that with the prior two seasons, Loney has averaged a -2.4 UZR and a -1 DRS.  Overall, these numbers speak to Loney’s lack of range and his failure to stretch on balls thrown to first base.

The solution to both of these problems would be Lucas Duda.  In 2014, Duda beat out Ike Davis to become the Mets first baseman.  In his two seasons as the Mets first baseman, Duda was a .249/.350/.483 hitter who averaged 28 homers and 82 RBI.  Entering the season, Bruce was a .248/.319/.462 hitter who averages 26 homers and 80 RBI.  Accordingly, Duda was a better power hitter and “run producer” who also got on base at a higher clip.  Naturally, Duda far surpasses Loney has a hitter.

Defensively, Duda’s poor defensive reputation really rests on one bad throw in the World Series.  Over his career, he has a 2.5 UZR and an 11 DRS.  Over the two seasons he was the everyday first baseman, Duda averaged a 0.1 UZR and a 5 DRS.  Using these advanced metrics, Duda is a much better defender than his reputation suggests, and he is a better defender than Loney.  More importantly, as Keith Hernandez consistently pointed out over the past few seasons, Duda cheats to get to each and every ball thrown by an infielder.  He stretches as far out as he can to help the Mets get the out calls on the close calls at first base.

Offensively and defensively, Duda is exactly what this Mets team needs for the stretch run and the postseason.  Unfortunately, Duda suffered a stress fracture in his lower back.  With a few setbacks during his rehabilitation, Duda was supposed to be gone for the season.  

As it turns out, he wasn’t. Duda was able to get enough stationary bike riding and batting practice in for the Mets to feel comfortable activating him from the disabled list on Saturday. Even better, he got the surprise start on Sunday. 

He would go 0-2 with a strikeout looking rusty at the plate. He was eventually lifted for Asdrubal Cabrera when the Twins brought in the left-handed Buddy Boshers to pitch the sixth. In the field, Duda was back to his normal form stretching out to give his team the best chance possible to get the base runner. 

Getting on the field was a good start. However, if the Mets are going to make a run in the postseason, they will need Duda’s bat. There are 13 games left in the season for him to get into form. Hopefully, Collins will give him every opportunity to get going before the Wild Card Game. 

If so, we have seen a hot Duda bat carry the Mets for long stretches. It just might carry the Mets to the World Series. 

Terry Collins Decision of the Game – Another Jay Bruce Start

To be fair to Terry Collins, he had a number of fine decisions yesterday. He went to Jerry Blevins to strike out Daniel Murphy to preserve the 4-3 extra inning win.

Collins also played a hunch starting T.J. Rivera at second. Rivera was the Mets offense last night, and he was the biggest reason the Mets won. Rivera made two nice defensive plays in the field, but it was his bat that was the difference. He was 3-4 with three RBI and a game winning homer against Mark Melancon.

These heroics were in part due to Collins’ insistence on playing Jay Bruce.

Since joining the Mets, Bruce is hitting .190/.271/.317 with four homers and 11 RBI. He’s gone from the major league RBI leader to just another Met not able to hit with runners in scoring position. He’s gone from an RBI machine in Cincinnati to a near automatic out.

Yesterday was more of the same from Bruce. He was 0-4 with a walk leaving three runners on base.

Since the rosters were expanded on September 1st, with .212/.297/.394 with two homers and five RBI. That coincidentally is the same time Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo were called-up to the majors.  When they were called up, Conforto was hitting .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI, hitting both righties and lefties, in his most recent demotion to the minors.  Nimmo was hitting .407/.474/.651 with four homers and 14 RBI in the month of August before he was re-called.

Conforto and Nimmo were hot at the plate, and yet, Collins didn’t care.  He was going to play Bruce no matter what.  Conceptually, you understand it because Bruce was the big bat the Mets added at the deadline.  The cost of adding Bruce was Dilson Herrera.  You want to get him going to help your chances of going to the postseason, and hopefully, the World Series.  Collins is relying on his proven track record.  The only problem is that track record isn’t what people think it is.

For his career, Bruce is a .247/.318/.466 hitter averaging 26 homers and 81 RBI.  Over the prior three seasons, Bruce has been a .237/.303/.433 hitter with 25 homers and 87 RBI.  Keep in mind, Bruce has been hitting in the Great American Ballpark which is a hitter’s ballpark.  Bruce has been a low OBP hitter who has been a slightly better than average home run hitter.

Worse yet, he’s poor defensively.  In fact, he is the Mets worst defensive outfielder.  Playing Bruce moves Curtis Granderson to center field.  Granderson isn’t a center fielder anymore.  Playing Bruce keeps Alejandro De Aza on the bench, and De Aza is the Mets best defensive center fielder.  By the way, Conforto has acquitted himself well in center, and he has shown himself to be a player capable of being a much better offensive player than Bruce.

So overall, on a night were Collins made a number of decisions that helped the team win, his insistence on playing Bruce continues to hamper the team offensively and defensively.

Gavin Cecchini Is Here – Now What?

What is most interesting about the Mets calling up Gavin Cecchini is the fact that the Mets did not need him.

The Mets didn’t need him to play shortstop.  Even with a lingering knee injury, Asdrubal Cabrera is able to play everyday.  If and when Cabrera needs time off, the Mets have sufficient depth on their current roster to address the shortstop position.  Both Jose Reyes and Wilmer Flores can slide over in a pinch.  Matt Reynolds has shown himself to be a good defender at the position.  In an emergency, Eric Campbell and Kelly Johnson have played there and have not embarrassed themselves.

Recently, Cecchini has been playing at second base.  He has worked there over the season, and he has played three of his last four AAA games at the position.  Even with Neil Walker‘s season ending surgery, he isn’t needed there either.  Flores and Johnson are more than capable of replicating Walker’s numbers with their platoon splits and hot hitting.  Reynolds has shown he can handle the position adeptly.  In an emergency situation, both Campbell and Ty Kelly are more than capable of playing second base.

While Cecchini hasn’t played third, the Mets have an incredible amount of depth over there, and that was even before the expanded rosters.  So, again, it begs the question: why was Cecchini called up?

It’s an important question because with the Mets calling up Cecchini, the team is starting the clock on him.  It doesn’t make sense for the Mets to start the clock on Cecchini when he could reasonably be considered the Mets second baseman of the future.  Given Walker’s back and the Mets trading Dilson Herrera, maintaining control over Cecchini has become more important than it once was.  It’s why it is very interesting the Mets are now adding Cecchini to the 40 man roster, a few months before they needed, and called him up now.

The move would only make sense if the Mets were actually intending upon playing Cecchini everyday at second base.  If the Mets were to do that, it would allow the team to let Flores and Johnson platoon at first base instead of second thereby removing James Loney‘s poor offensive production from the lineup.  Now, there is some danger in this.  As we have seen with Terry Collins handling of Michael Conforto and other young talent, Collins doesn’t trust young players, and he gives them very little rope.  As we have seen with Conforto, this could have a detrimental effect on a young player’s development.  It’s a strange position to put Cecchini in, but it is the only one that makes sense.

Because at the end of the day, if the Mets are bringing up Cecchini just to sit on the bench, they’re not helping him.  Worse yet, they are losing important control time over a player that could be their second baseman for years to come.

Gavin Cecchini Needs to Be Up Here Now

Last night, the Mets received some devastating news when it was discovered that Neil Walker was going to miss the rest of the season due to a herniated disc that is going to require surgery.  With Walker done for the year, the Mets are missing not only a good defender, but also a good bat.  Someway, somehow the Mets are going to have to replace Walker’s .282/.347/.476 batting line and his 23 homers.  It is no easy task.

The obvious solution is a Wilmer FloresKelly Johnson platoon.  That tandem should be able to replicate Walker’s production as both are incredibly hot at the plate.  Flores hit .306/.346/.542 in August with five homers and 19 RBI.  Better yet, he is hitting .340/.386/.691 with 10 homers and 26 RBI off lefties this season.  For his part, Johnson is hitting .289/.353/.511 with eight homers and 20 RBI in 60 games for the Mets.  Over the last month, he is hitting .288/.348/.576 with five homers and 14 RBI.  Johnson also had that game winning bases clearing RBI double last night that helped the Mets win the game.

If second base were the only issue, that would be fine.  However, the Mets have issues at first base and shortstop that needs to be addressed.

At first base, the Mets have a floundering James Loney.  In the month of August, he hit .213/.222/.447 with just one extra base hit.  Worse yet, these numbers were with Terry Collins shielding him against left-handed pitching.  As we saw last night, Collins is going to be forced to play Flores at first and Johnson at second.  When you couple that with Asdrubal Cabrera dealing with a knee injury, the Mets do not have much margin for error.

Even with the rosters expanding today, that remains to be true as the players on the 40 man roster leave a lot to be desired as an everyday replacement.

the 40 man roster, the Mets have enigmatic options.

Eric Campbell is once again dominating AAA hitting .297/.396/.428 with 13 doubles, four triples, five homers, and 40 RBI. Yes, four triples. However, this follows a stint where he didn’t hit in the majors going .159/.270/.222.

Ty Kelly is coming off a decent stint in the majors where Collins shielded the switch-hitter against left-handed pitching.  Since his demotion Kelly is hitting .258/.314/.290 with only one extra base hit in the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.

Finally, there is Matt Reynolds who hit .211/.231/.382 in 37 games with the Mets. After the AAA All Star Break, Reynolds has been hitting .255/.333/.294 with only four doubles in 102 at bats.

Keep in mind, T.J. Rivera is not an option at the moment as he needs to remain in the minors until next week because he was sent down to make room for Rafael Montero‘s spot start.  This means that even though the Mets have warm bodies available to play the middle infield, they do not have players who can play everyday at the major league level.

With these three not hitting or having established they are not capable of hitting at the major league level, the Mets need to turn in another direction for help. With that in mind, the Mets best option is their 2012 first round draft pick Gavin Cecchini.

While playing shortstop this season, Cecchini has been hitting .327/.388/.449 with 27 doubles, two triples, seven homers, and 53 RBI. Over the past month, Cecchini is hitting .358/.378/.480 with nine doubles, two homers, and 12 RBI. While many have knocked his defense as he has a woeful .929 fielding percentage, it is notable that Cecchini has gone his last 14 games without an error.

For what it is worth, Cecchini has only played one game at secondin his minor league career, and that was Thursday.  It should be noted with the rise of Amed Rosario and the trade of Dilson Herrera, Cecchini’s future will be second base.  Given the fact that Collins had no issue throwing Reynolds into left field in a game without him having ever played there before, the concerns about him not being a second baseman are a bit overblown.

In reality, the only thing preventing the Mets from calling up Cecchini right now is the fact that he’s not on the 40 man roster.  However, with the Jon Niese and Neil Walker injuries, the Mets have the opportunity to move either of them to the 60 day disabled list freeing up a spot for Cecchini.  Keep in mind, the Mets are going to have to add Cecchini this offseason anyway to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.

With the Mets needing to patch things together on the right side of their infield, they need as many options as possible.  They also need some insurance for Cabrera’s knee.  They could use another shortstop who could take over for Cabrera late in games to allow him to rest his knee.  Furthermore, given the Mets team speed, they could use someone who could be available to pinch run late in games.

Cecchini could fulfill each of these roles quite well.  Furthermore, if given the opportunity, he might just prove more valuable than that.  At this point, there is really no good reason to keep Cecchini in AAA.  He needs to be up in the majors now helping the Mets return to the postseason.

Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on Mets Minors

Mets August 2016 Report Card

The Mets entered August 6.5 games back in the NL East race behind both the Nationals and the Marlins.  They also trailed the Marlins by 1.5 games for the last Wild Card spot.  The Mets have also fallen behind the Cardinals in the Wild Card race as well.

By going 15-14, August turned out to be just the second winning month the Mets have had this season.  They now trail the Nationals by nine games in the NL East.  After what has been a crazy month, the Mets still remain 1.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot.  Only now, the Mets trail the the Cardinals after having helped put the Marlins away having won the first three against them in a four game series.  Given the Mets weak September schedule, it should be an interesting finish to the season.

Bear in mind, these grades are on a curve. If a bench player gets an A and a position player gets a B, it doesn’t mean the bench player is having a better year. Rather, it means the bench player is performing better in his role.

Position Players

Travis d’Arnaud (C).  After the Jonathon Lucroy rumors died down, d’Arnaud starting hitting again.  However, he has cooled off to hit at a rate slightly better than his 2016 totals.  Part of the reason may be Collins playing Rivera over him with the Mets needing to throw a lot of young pitchers out there.

Kevin Plawecki (Inc.)  Plawecki spent the entire month down in AAA where he has started hitting again.  He should be among the first group of players called up today.  It’ll be interesting to see what, if any, impact he has over the final month of the season.

Rene Rivera (C).  Rivera came crashing back to Earth offensively.  However, his value has always been as a receiver, and he has done that job fairly well helping usher some of these young pitchers into the big leagues.

Lucas Duda (Inc). Duda is most likely gone for the season, and the debate will soon begin about whether he will be a Met in 2017.

James Loney (F).  He didn’t hit for average or power, nor did he get on base much during the entire month.  Worse yet, he has not been good in the field.  The next ball he stretches for will be his first.

Neil Walker (A+).  What has happened to Walker is nothing short of heart breaking.  He had completely turned his season around, and he appeared to be headed for a massive payday this offseason with him standing out as one of the better options in a weak free agent class.  Instead, Walker is going to have season ending back surgery to end his season.

David Wright (Inc.).  It’s clear he’s done for the season, but it is nice seeing him around Citi Field and looking better.

Asdrubal Cabrera (A+).  Since his return from the disabled list, Cabrera has been a blonde bombshell.  He moved into the second spot in the order, and he he has combine with Reyes to form a dynamic and powerful 1-2 duo at the top of the lineup.  The only concern is how much he is going to actually be able to play with that lingering knee issue.

Wilmer Flores (B+).  Flores has continued to rake putting up numbers at an unprecedented.  This month he hit seven homers.  He has benefited greatly by mostly facing left-handed pitchers, and now he’s hitting righties better. The Mets will need his versatility all the more as injuries mounted during the month.

Eric Campbell (Inc.) Campbell did not play in a game during the month, and the Mets are not likely to call him up again until rosters expand in September.

Matt Reynolds (D).  Reynolds didn’t hit well during his 10 games with the Mets this month.  Worse yet for him, he has been passed over on the team’s depth chart by Rivera.

Ty Kelly (A).  During his limited August playing time, Collins was able to maximize Kelly’s abilities by making him a short-lived platoon left fielder with Cespedes dealing with his quad injury.  In his nine August games, Kelly hit .381/.500/.524 with a double and a triple.

Michael Conforto (D).  After a stretch in which the Mets bottomed out, Conforto was sent down as he was a young player unable to handle sporadic playing time.  Since being sent down to AAA, Conforto has hit everything including lefties.  He should be called up today, and most likely, never play as Collins is his manager.

Yoenis Cespedes (A).  It was admirable that Cespedes played until he could play no longer (even if his golfing might’ve been part of the reason why).  Since his return, Cespedes is hitting home runs again.  He has had another incredible month, and he had a walkoff with a legendary bat flip to help the Mets beat the Marlins.

Curtis Granderson (D).  It hasn’t been fun seeing last year’s team MVP struggle the way he has this month.  He lost his job in right, moved to center, and now has become a part time player.  The hope is that with the time off, he rests up, and he returns to the Granderson of old.  Those hopes don’t seem that far fetched after he came off the bench the other night to hit two home runs.

Juan Lagares (Inc).  Lagares didn’t play in August due to the thumb surgery.  It remains questionable if he can return in September as he will most likely not be ready for rehab games until after the minor league affiliates have ended their seasons.

Alejandro De Aza (C-).  De Aza followed a great July with another poor August.  Mixed in there were a couple of terrific games that helped the Mets win a pivotal game against the Cardinals.  Right now, what he brings more than anything is the ability to play center field.

Kelly Johnson (A+).  Johnson continues to be the Mets top pinch hitter as well as a platoon option in the infield.  Over the past month, he has hit for more power including a surprising five homers.  His bases loaded double last night might’ve buried the Marlins.

Brandon Nimmo (Inc).  He only played two games before being sent down to AAA.  Given the fact that he’s one of the few healthy center fielders in the organization, he may see some real time when he gets called up with the expanded rosters.

Jose Reyes (A).  You could say we’re seeing the Reyes of old, but Reyes has never been this good in his career.  He has adapted extremely well to third base while playing a steady shortstop when the Mets have needed him to play over there when Cabrera has been injured or needing a day off.  The one caution is he still isn’t hitting right-handed pitching that well.  Still, his numbers were terrific.

T.J. Rivera (B).  After all this time, Rivera finally got his chance.  He made the most of it hitting .289 in 13 games while playing decently at second and third base.

Justin Ruggiano (Inc).  When he plays, he hits, but he is now on his second disabled list stint already with the Mets. With him being put on the 60 day disabled list, he’s now done for the season.   Seeing what we have seen with the team, there may be something in the water.

Jay Bruce (F).  Since coming to the Mets for Dilson Herrera, he has just been bad.  But hey, it’s not like the Mets need another second baseman, right?

Pitchers

Matt Harvey (Inc).  Harvey is done for the season after having had successful surgery to remove a rib.  For a player who has been criticized in the past for attending Yankee games while being gone for the season, Harvey has been a fixture in the Mets dugout during games.

Jacob deGrom (D).  deGrom had been pitching great until August rolled around.  In back-to-back big games against the Giants and the Cardinals, he couldn’t deliver pitching two of the worst games in his career.  Hopefully, the Mets skipping his last start will help get him back on track.

Noah Syndergaard (B). Syndergaard has had an uneven month, but after his last start, it appears he is dealing better with the bone spurs, and he is getting back to the pitcher who was dominant over the first half of the season.

Steven Matz (C).  Just as you thought he turned things around with his flirting with a no-hitter in his last start, he goes down with a shoulder injury.  At this time, it is unknown as to when or if he can return.

Bartolo Colon (A).  Colon stopped his good start-bad start streak in August, and he started pitching much better during the month of August at a time when the Mets needed him the most.

Logan Verrett (F).  Look, he shouldn’t have been tapped as the Mets fifth starter after Harvey went down, but with that said, he did everything he could to lose the job pitching to a 13.50 ERA in August.  He eventually lost the job to Niese of all people

Jeurys Familia (A).  That’s the Familia we all know and love.  He not only had a sub 1.00 ERA, but he also broke the single season Mets save record he shared with Armando Benitez.

Addison Reed (B+).  You knew he wasn’t going to keep up what he has been doing, but even with him coming back to Earth slightly, he has still be incredible.

Jim Henderson (F).  After being on the disabled list for so long with yet another shoulder injury, Henderson has made his way back to the majors.  Unfortunately, he’s not the same pitcher.  Collins owes him an apology.

Hansel Robles (F).  Robles showed how much he has been overworked this season by Collins this month.  Hopefully, with some rest, he should finally be able to rebound and contribute in September and beyond like he had done for most of the season.

Jerry Blevins (B+).  His 2.16 ERA was terrific, but his 1.560 WHIP gives some reason for pause.  Both righties and lefties are starting to hit him, and he has been allowing inherited runners to score.

Antonio Bastardo (Inc.)  Thankfully, he is gone, and it was worth it even if it meant the Mets had to take back Niese.

Rafael Montero (Inc.) He got an unexpected start due to injuries, and he fought his way through five scoreless innings.  Good for him.

Sean Gilmartin (Inc.)  Gilmartin has only made three appearances since being recalled, and he hasn’t pitched particularly well.  Whether it was the shoulder injury or teams figuring him out, he’s not the same guy he was last season.

Erik Goeddel (F).  There used to be two factions of the Mets fan base: those who thought Goeddel was a good major league pitcher, and those that didn’t.  Seemingly, everyone is now in the latter camp now.

Seth Lugo (A).  Lugo has been nothing short of a revelation this year.  Due to injuries, he has had to go from the bullpen to the rotation.  He has not only shown his stuff translates as a starter, but he also shown he could actually be more effective as a starter.  He has gotten his 2014 deGrom moment, and he has taken advantage of it.

Jon Niese (F).  Somehow, he was worse with the Mets than he was with the Pirates.  He has failed in the bullpen and the rotation.  Hopefully, for him, the reason is because of his knee injury that has required surgery.

Robert Gsellman (Inc.) It’s been a mixed bag for Gsellman.  In his one relief apperance and his one start, he has given the Mets a chance to win.   However, he’s a powder keg out there as it seems as if he is in trouble each and every inning.  To his credit, he has gotten out of most of the jams.  It’ll be interesting to see where he goes from here.

Gabriel Ynoa (Inc.) Ynao was surprisingly called up to pitch out of the bullpen.  In three rough appearances, the only thing you can fairly conclude is he isn’t comfortable yet pitching out of the bullpen.

Josh Edgin (D) Edgin has gone through the long Tommy John rehab process, but he’s not quite back yet.  His velocity isn’t quite there.  With that in mind, he has struggles getting major league batters out.

Josh Smoker (B) After a rough start to his major league career, he has gone out there and gotten better each and every time out.  He is getting his fastball in the upper 90s, and he is a strikeout machine.  He could be a real factor over the next month and in the postseason

Terry Collins (D)  He iced Conforto.  He continues to overwork the bullpen.  He makes baffling lineup decision after baffling lineup decision.  He is even worse with in-game management.  However, with the Mets on a stretch against some bad teams, and the Wild Card frontrunners not having run away with it, he may once again be in position to ride some good luck into the postseason.