David Wright
Despite the Pirates being in the thick of the Wild Card race, and there being no reason to expect for them to drop out of the race, Jon Heyman wrote in his Today’s Knuckleball article that the Pirates could be willing to part with David Freese at the trade deadline. Due to the Mets injury situation, Heyman linked Freese to the Mets.
Assuming that Freese is truly available, and the price is reasonable, Freese would be a solid addition to the New York Mets.
For his career, Freese is a career .277/.346/.418 hitter with a 112 career OPS+ and 115 wRC+. His 162 game averages are 30 doubles, 15 homeruns, and 77 RBI. With the exception of a poor 2013 season, which has proven to be an outlier, Freese has been an average defensive third baseman. Over the course of his career, Freese has been a good hitter and a solid defender. He would be a benefit to almost any team with postseason aspirations.
Here’s the catch: Freese has been even better this year.
This year, Freese is hitting .292/.373/.427 with a 127 OPS+ and a 124 wRC+ in 51 games. This could be construed as a small sample size, but there are some underlying numbers that suggest his current batting line will be sustainable over the course of a full season. First, Freese is still beating up on lefties like he has done his whole career. He has faced lefties in 21 games this year, and he is hitting .366/.409/.610 against them. For a Mets team that has been having some difficulty against lefties, especially with the Nationals Gio Gonzalez, adding Freese’s bat would be beneficial.
However, Freese’s numbers are not just reflective of his facing lefties. Freese is also hitting better against rightes. For his career, Freese has been a .269/.337/.401 hitter against righties. He is now hitting .269/.362/.369 against them. It’s a moderate, but important, improvement. The underlying reason for this improvement may be his approach at the plate. Freese has been hitting a lot of groundballs this year. Freese is hitting the ball on the ground 64.2% of the time. Normally, in this age of the shift, this could be construed as a negative. Many times, we have seen batters like Curtis Granderson pull balls in to the shift. That isn’t the case with Freese. Historically, Freese has hit the ball to all fields. In fact, over the course of his career, Freese pulls the ball 35.1% of the time, hits it up the middle 36.4% of the time, and goes to the opposite field 28.5% of the time. In essence, it is hard to defend a player like that with the shift.
One of the corresponding factors to Freese hitting more groundballs is his hitting fewer flyballs. Typically, unless you are hitting the ball over the fence, flyballs are turned into outs. With Freese hitting fewer flyballs there is a decreased chance he will hit into an out. The increased groundball rate coupled with the decreased flyball rate are strong factors in Freese’s high .397 BABIP. Typically, the league average is .300, which would lead many to believe that Freese is due for a regression. Even if that were to happen, keep in mind Freese’s career BABIP is .342. In essence, he is someone who’s natural talents led to a higher BABIP. Therefore, even if Freese were due for a regression, it wouldn’t be as drastic as one might believe it to be.
Another benefit to adding Freese is the fact that he’s a more versatile player now. Since he has joined the Pirates, Freese has also played at first and second in addition to third. Thereofr,e even if David Wright and Lucas Duda were to return to the Mets completely healthy, Freese would still be an useful player off the bench.
Overall, Freese appears to be a better hitter and a more versatile fielder. He’s exactly the type of player the Mets should be looking to add to the team. The only thing standing in the way of that happening is the Pirates. They first have to make him available, and the Mets need to be willing to meet their demands. That is much easier said than done.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on metsmerizedonline.com
Other than David Wright and Steven Matz, the Mets players grew up rooting for another team. That includes Matt Harvey, who grew up as a Yankee fan.
Do you know what Harvey’s Yankee fandom has to do with his pitching? Absolutely nothing. He just wants to win. He pitched more than anyone did post-Tommy John surgery. He gave it his all during the postseason. He may have grown up a Yankees fan, but right now, all he wants to do is to get a World Series ring with the Mets.
This dumb issue reared its head when the Mets selected Justin Dunn in the first round. He’s a Long Island kid from Freeport that grew up rooting for the Yankees. This will have no bearing on how he will pitch for the Mets when he gets to the big leagues. Oh, and by the way, I think he’s just a little excited to be a Met:
When you get picked 19th overall in the #MLBDraft with 34 of your brothers there with you!https://t.co/8fc04P6QIj
— BC Baseball (@BCBirdBall) June 10, 2016
Dunn just proves that these guys are excited to be Mets no matter who they rooted for growing up. He wants to be a Met, and that’s all that matters at the end of the day.
With the Mets injuries, it’s easy to blame the lack of offense on the Mets supposed depth. It’s true. The Mets backups have been dreadful:
- Kevin Plawecki and Rene Rivera have combined to hit .194/.291/.302 since Travis d’Arnaud played his last game on April 25th.
- Eric Campbell, Wilmer Flores, and James Loney have combined to hit .197/.231/.328 since Lucas Duda played his last game on May 20th.
- Flores and Ty Kelly have combined to hit .216/.310/.243 since David Wright played his last game on May 27th
These players haven’t done their jobs, and they have hurt the Mets. However, while the Kellys and the Campbells of the world get the blame for hitting the way you reasonably anticipate them to hit, the regulars who haven’t been hitting have not faced the same scrutiny. In fact, the Mets right now have five regulars still in the lineup and four of them are just flat out not producing:
- Asdrubal Cabrera – Since April 27th, Cabrera is hitting .227/.278/.355 with only 10 extra base hits in 151 plate appearances. Over that stretch, he is striking out in 23.8% of his plate appearances.
- Michael Conforto – Since May 1st, in what is now being infamously referenced as the Madison Bumgarner Effect, Conforto has hit .160/.224/.311 while striking out in 31% of his plate appearances. He only has seven extra base hits over this stretch. Terry Collins once had concerns with him lefties. Right now, Conforto isn’t hitting anybody.
- Yoenis Cespedes – Since May 25th, Cespedes is hitting .086/.132/.114 with no homeruns while striking out 34.2% of the time. He is once again dealing with a hip issue, and he is clearly frustrated saying he is “a little lost at the plate right now.” (ESPN).
- Curtis Granderson – Since April 30th, Granderson is hitting .180/.269/.375 while striking out 28.3% of the time. His problems have been analyzed before show he’s hitting the ball on the ground more and it getting beaten by the shift. So far, Granderson is not making the necessary adjustments.
Then again, no Met is making the necessary adjustments right now. The end result is a putrid offense that is the worst offense in the major leagues. According to Baseball Tonight, since May 12th, the Mets are the last in the majors in runs per game (2.8), OBP (.282), and strikeout rate (28%). The team is also second to last in slugging (.354). These numbers would look a whole lot worse if Neil Walker wasn’t hitting.
Overall, this isn’t the July 2015 Mets that had Campbell and John Mayberry hitting in the middle of the lineup. There are legitimate hitters in this lineup who just aren’t hitting. We can all analyze who the Mets should get to be their possible long term solutions at catcher, first, and third in the event any of those injured players aren’t able to return. However, the simple truth of the matter is that unless the players currently here start hitting it’s not going to matter if the Mets make another move at the deadline.
Since Michael Fulmer‘s call-up on April 29th, he is an astounding 6-1 with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.175 WHIP. In his last four starts, he is 4-0 with a 0.32 ERA and a 0.635 WHIP. These are great numbers from any rookie. It’s all the more incredible when you consider he’s only made three starts in AAA. The 23 year old is showing everyone why he was considered a potential ace, and why the Tigers wanted him in the first place.
It’s also a reminder that the Mets used their biggest trade chip last year.
While the Mets farm system is still stocked with pitching talent, there aren’t any pitchers with the upside of Fulmer, at least not any that are as close to the major leagues as Fulmer was last year. Now, the Mets do boast some terrific position player prospects like Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario. However, neither one of those players are close to ready to being major leaguers. While these players are highly thought of around baseball, they are certainly not going to fetch a player of Yoenis Cespedes‘ caliber at the trading deadline. That’s a huge problem for the Mets.
Right now, the Mets are without Lucas Duda, David Wright, and Travis d’Arnaud due to severe injuries. The Mets don’t know the long-term status of Juan Lagares and the torn ligament in his left thumb. Hopefully, d’Arnaud, who has started rehab games, can catch with the torn labrum. Realistically, all the Mets can do with each of these players is put a timetable on when they think they could return not fully knowing when these players can return. As the Mets are waiting to figure this out, they are playing a group of players that are having problems just to reach the Mendoza Line. The big solution they have so far was to acquire James Loney. Loney has been good so far, but he is still the player who was released by the Tampa Rays and was playing for the San Diego Padres’ AAA affiliate. In short, the Mets are going to have to go out there on the trade market and obtain some players that can help them at catcher, first, and third.
The Mets have the pieces to make those deals. However, they may not have the pieces to make that blockbuster deal that everyone wants. The Mets don’t have the one big trade piece that could solve the issue at one or more positions. The reason why is the Mets went all-in on the 2015 season. The result was the Mets making it to the World Series. At the end of the day, the 2016 Mets may be hamstrung by what happened in 2015.
With that said, Sandy Alderson is a very good GM. He has swung some good trades while he has been the manager of the Mets. The deals he made with the Braves for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe as well as the deal he made with the Arizona Diamondbacks for Addison Reed were absolute coups. Alderson was able to acquire quality major league pieces without giving up much of anything. The Mets are going to need the same type of performance this trading deadline, especially since he doesn’t have the same assets he had last year to get the job done. It’s not going to be easy. It’s going to require some creativity. However, if anyone can do it, it’s Sandy Alderson.
You’re not going 162-0. It’s simply not going to happen. Even the 108 win 86 Mets lost 54 times. Your only hope is that when the Mets lose they can provide you with something positive.
Matt Harvey did that.
Harvey did take the loss, but he lost 1-0 against Jose Fernandez, a great pitcher in his own right. Harvey was good again today. He pitched seven innings allowing only four hits, one earned, and no walks with three strikeouts. He was averaging 96 MPH with his fastball. Harvey built upon his last start. This is a other sign the Harvey of old is coming back:
Since 1913, most games allowing one run or fewer by starting pitcher in first 77 starts:
Dwight Gooden: 38
Matt Harvey: 35— New York Mets Stats (@NYMStats) June 5, 2016
Ultimately, no one wants to see the Mets lose. However, this loss is more acceptable than most as Harvey took another step forward. Getting Harvey back to form is more important than the outcome of any game.
The Mets just had to tip their caps to Fernandez, who was awesome against the overmatched Mets backups:
José Fernández led the Marlins to a win over the Mets with 14 K. Here's a look inside his dominant performance: pic.twitter.com/OslZ22sCTb
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) June 5, 2016
Fernandez is difficult for any lineup. It’s even worse for a lineup without David Wright (DL – neck), Travis d’Arnaud (DL – shoulder), Yoenis Cespedes (DTD – hip), and yes, even Juan Lagares (DTD – presumed sprained thumb). About the only positive from the game from an offensive standpoint was Michael Conforto and James Loney going 1-3. Both hitters got hits in what has been a good series for both.
The Mets now travel to Pittsburgh where Neil Walker gets to face his old team. Making the matchup all the more interesting is the fact that old friend Jon Niese takes the mound.
Game Notes: Harvey recorded his 500th career strikeout in this game. Harvey fell to 1-18 in his career when the Mets give him two runs or less of run support. In those games, he has a 2.53 ERA in such games.
David Wright is gone for who knows how long. Yoenis Cespedes was scratched right before the game with a hip issue. When you don’t have the big bats in your lineup, you’re doing to need everyone to pitch in to try to help secure the victory.
As usual, Juan Lagares provided Gold Glove defense:
Sorry, the gap's closed today: https://t.co/ZAOFAXw8FG #Juanderfulhttps://t.co/hr1USxY5HI
— MLB (@MLB) June 4, 2016
It was an important catch as the game was 3-2, and that hit could’ve put the game out of reach. Instead, the Meys got new life.
That’s when James Loney made his contribution. Loney led off the inning with a double and moved to third on a passed ball. Loney then scored on an RBI single by surprise starter Michael Conforto. Conforto has been struggling badly of late, but today he was 1-3 with a run scored, a walk, and two RBI. Conforto later scored on an RBI pinch hit single from Matt Reynolds. Reynolds had to pinch hit for Lagares, who left the game with an apparent injury, which may or may not have been related to that amazing catch.
Seemingly every Met contributed to this 6-4 win. Wilmer Flores was 3-4 with a run and a walk. Neil Walker scored two runs, and Asdrubal Cabrera scored one as well. He also stayed in a game where everyone seemed to get knicked up a bit. Bartolo Colon pitched in and out of trouble allowing only one run over five. Jerry Blevins, with a little help from Lagares, bailed out Hansel Robles in the sixth. Jim Henderson pitched a scoreless 0.1 innings, and Addison Reed pitched a scoreless eighth. Alejandro De Aza had a two out, two run double in the the ninth. Jeurys Familia recorded his 18th save. As you can see, pretty much everyone contributed to this win, save Kevin Plawecki.
He has an error in the second when he took a throw from Flores and couldn’t find homeplate with his foot or tag the runner. In the top of the third, he hit a double and was immediately picked off second. In the eighth, he couldn’t get down a sacrifice bunt. It was a tough say for him on what was a terrific day for his teammates.
So long as the Mets role players and lesser starts keep stepping up like this, this is going to be a special season.
This year, the Mets intended to rely heavily upon Wilmer Flores. The Mets needed him to be the main backup at all four infield positions. Mainly, he was needed as insurance for David Wright‘s back.
Unfortunately, Flores wasn’t up for the task in the early part of the season. Flores started the year hitting a paltry .167/.242/.267 with a -0.4 WAR, 40 OPS+, and a 44 wRC+. He was struggling with his throws from second and third. He then went on the disabled list with a strained left hamstring. He was becoming an after-thought.
Part of the reason for Flores’ struggles could’ve been his irregular playing time. Now, with David Wright’s injury, there is a chance. With Wright being shut down for 6-8 weeks due to the herniated disc in his back, Flores is the obvious choice to get be the starter at third base. He’s going to get a shot to prove he’s up to the task. That’s all Flores wanted.
Flores knows this is his chance. Flores said, “You don’t want to have anybody get hurt. It happened. Since I got here, I’ve been waiting for an opportunity. It’s an opening. Knowing that you could be in the lineup, it changes everything.” (ESPN).
At least for one night, Flores looked like a changed player. On Friday, he went 2-3 with two runs, one walk, one RBI, and a double. He got a two out RBI hit, and he drew a walk to start the game winning rally. It’s the type of performance you wanted to see from him the first night he officially became the Mets short term answer at third base.
Better yet, there’s reason to believe games like Friday’s are not a mirage. Prior to that game, Flores had an unsustainably low .188 BABIP. That’s well below the league average of .300 and his career average of .264. Accordingly, it is reasonable to expect Flores to see an improvement in his offensive numbers.
Additionally, last year he got better as the season progressed. In the first half, he only hit .252/.286/.395 with a 91 OPS+. As he worked with Kevin Long, he improved. In the second half, he hit .280/.311/.429 with a 101 OPS+. His best month was August where he hit .306/.337/.506. As the year progressed, he steadily improved. It’s what promising young players do.
It’s easy to forget Flores is just 24 years old. He’s still developing as a player. He still hasn’t reached his full potential. He’s got a good coaching staff that will help him get there. Now, due to Wright’s unfortunate injury, Flores is going to get the playing time he needs to continue in his development.
This is his chance to show the Mets they don’t need to add a third baseman because he’s ready to take over. At least on one night, he took advantage of that opportunity.
The narrative going into the game was Noah Syndergaard‘s golf trip would have a negative impact on his start. It seemed to be the case when Syndergaard allowed a first inning solo homerun to Marcell Ozuna.
Instead of struggling from that point forward, Syndergaard did what he’s done all year. He dominated. Syndergaard pitched seven innings allowing six hits, two earned, and one walk with nine strikeouts. All Syndergaard needed was some run support.
Fortunately for Syndergaard, the Mets provided him with more than one run of support. That was the main difference between this game and Jacob deGrom‘s start on Wednesday. The main reason was Wilmer Flores started at third instead of Ty Kelly. In the fourth, Flores broke a 1-1 tie by getting a two out broken bat bloop RBI single scoring Yoenis Cespedes.
Unfortunately, Syndergaard would relinquish the lead in the sixth. The rally was built upon a Christian Yelich double to shortstop. Yes, shortstop. Asdrubal Cabrera, who hit a fourth inning homerun, dove and got a piece of the ball. It was just enough to slow it down so Yelich could get to second and Martin Prado could go to third. Prado would subsequently score on a Ozuna’s sacrifice fly. The Mets would need Flores to get things started again. He did.
In the seventh, Flores got a rally started by drawing a leadoff walk in the seventh. The Marlins then pulled starter Tom Koehler and brought in the lefty, Mike Dunn, to face James Loney. Loney made the Marlins pay by hitting the first pitch he saw for a homerun. It was Loney’s first homerun for the Mets and his 100th career homerun. The homerun broke a 2-2 tie.
Just for good measure, Flores got another rally started with a leadoff double in the ninth. He moved to third on a long fly ball from Loney to center. He JUST MISSED another homerun. Rene Rivera, on the other hand, didn’t. He hit an absolute bomb to left center giving the Mets a 6-2 lead. It gave the Mets a big enough lead to let them relax after losing two straight games in which they had a lead in what were tight scoring games.
Addison Reed pitched a scoreless eighth because that’s what he does. The four run lead allowed Jim Henderson to pitch a scoreless ninth thereby allowing Jeurys Familia a night off.
This was a great game for the Mets and Flores in particular. He finished the night 2-3 with two runs, one RBI, one walk, and one double. With David Wright‘s most recent injury, the Mets need Flores to step up and take over third base. He did that tonight. If he continues playing like this the Mets will be able to weather not just this storm, but also anything else that comes their way in 2016.
Game Notes: The struggling Michael Conforto was dropped from third to sixth in the lineup. He was 0-4 with two strikeouts dropping his average to .246.
Things are not looking good for David Wright. He came into this season battling spinal stenosis. Now, he has to deal with a herniated disc in his neck. It’s gotten so bad for Wright that there are days he doesn’t want to get out of bed. Now, Wright is going on the Disabled List, and no one can definitively tell you when he will return to the Mets. It’s a sad day for the Mets and Mets fans. The only thing we have left is hope. Hope that David Wright can return. Hope that David Wright can continue to play well when he returns.
Hope is a funny thing. As Red said, “Let me tell you something my friend. Hope is a dangerous thing. Hope can drive a man insane.”
It certainly can. The hope of David Wright being able to play everyday without needing a stint on the Disabled List has led to the Mets being woefully unprepared for his extended Disabled List stint. Right now, Wilmer Flores is the best choice there is play third base everyday. This is the same Flores who is hitting .167/.242/.267 this year and .247/.284/.378 for his career. It’s led to the Mets going to Eric Campbell, Matt Reynolds, and Ty Kelly for stretches. Seeing these four players is enough to drive someone insane, especially after a month where the Mets averaged only three runs per game.
But watching Wright this season, you understood the hope. This is still the same David Wright that homered in his first at bat off the Disabled List last year. This is the same David Wright who hit the first ever World Series home run in Citi Field last year. This is the same David Wright who battled through spinal stenosis to become an effective major league player this year. This is the same David Wright that had homered in three straight games before needing to make this most recent trip to the Disabled List. It’s a reminder of what Andy Dufresne said, “Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies.”
There’s still reason for hope because this is David Wright. He’s been counted out so many times before. He was counted out when he got hit in the helmet. He was counted out when the Mets had the ridiculous dimensions at Citi Field. He was counted out when he had the broken bone in his back. Time and again, David Wright has overcome all odds. We were watching him do it again with spinal stenosis. David Wright has “crawled through a river of shit and come out clean on the other side.” He’s done it numerous times. When you place your hopes in David Wright, he is not going to let you down. At the end of the day, all we have is hope, but that hope is justified.
However, until such time as David Wright comes back, I’m just going to have to agree with Red when he said, “I guess I just miss my friend.”
For the second straight year, the Mets are trying to determine who will be the everyday third basemen in David Wright‘s absence. This is a far cry from when David Wright was first called-up in 2004. At that time, it was assumed that Wright would be given the job and would be able to play everyday for the next 15-20 years. Wright is now in his 13th year, and he has played in a lot of games at third base. Can you name all the Mets that have played third base since 2004, the year Wright was called-up? Good luck!