David Wright
As we have seen with David Wright some injuries are more than just baseball injuries. Some injuries have long lasting effects, and they affect your quality of life away from the game. You want these players to recover not just because you want to see them back on the field, you want to see them recover because you don’t want to see someone suffer.
That may be where we are now with Neil Walker.
Walker has apparently been dealing with a back issue since his day with the Pirates. It flared up in June, and it has flared up again. Only this time, his back problem has apparently gotten worse – much worse.
Despite the Mets being in the thick of the Wild Card race, Walker has been unable to play since Saturday. Coming into last night’s game, the Mets have announced Walker can no longer play every day. Worse yet, he has tingling in his back which is affecting his legs. There are even more dire reports suggesting Walker is experiencing tingling on one side of his body. It’s at the point now where the Mets wonder aloud about whether Walker’s season is over. Terry Collins put it succinctly when he said, “There’s a lot of concern.” (mlb.com)
Right now, the plan is for Walker to get a second opinion to see if he really can play. Because they’re the Mets, and they have all their injured player’s play, the team still intends to have Walker play through the pain. Given the Mets recent history with back injuries, Wright and Lucas Duda, it’s hard to feel optimistic about Walker’s chances of not just being able to play, but also being able to contribute this season.
No matter what happens, Walker has to do what is right for him and his family. While the Mets need his bat in the lineup for the stretch run, no one wants to see him befall what has befallen Wright over the past couple of years.
There are a multitude of reasons why the Mets are only a game over .500 and 3.5 games back of the Cardinals for the second Wild Card.
The most popular excuse is injuries. There is some validity there with Matt Harvey, Lucas Duda, and David Wright gone for the year. Yoenis Cespedes was hobbled by a quad injury before he was finally forced to go on the disabled list. Now that he’s back, he has a heel issue. Both Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz are dealing with bone spurs. Matz is also dealing with a shoulder issue that landed him on the disabled list. For what it’s worth, Jon Niese is also on the disabled list as he needs arthroscopic surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee.
That’s a litany of injuries, and that’s not all of them. However, that’s not the Mets biggest problem. The Mets biggest problem is they’re not beating the Mets they are supposed to beat.
Over the past two weeks, the Mets went 1-5 against the woeful Diamondbacks. TheDiamondbacks can’t best anyone as represented by their 53-75 record, which is a 93 loss pace.
The Padres are on the same 93 loss pace with a 53-74 record. On the season, the Mets could only muster a 4-3 record against them.
The Mets are 7-6 against the Braves this year. The Braves are well on their way to a 100 loss season with a 46-82 record.
The Mets are 5-4 against the Phillies. The Phillies are near a 90 less pace with a 59-68 record. With the Phillies rolling into town, the Mets can turn that 5-4 mark to an 8-4 mark.
Fact is the Mets need to do that if they have designs on getting back to the postseason. Keep in mind, beating teams like the Phillies and Braves powered the Mets run to a division title.
In 2015, the Mets were 90-72, which is 18 games over .500. Against the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins, three teams that lost over 90 games, the Mets were a combined 36-21. Against just those three terrible teams, the Mets went 15 games over .500. It goes a long way in explaining why the Mets were 18 games over .500 and won the division.
Currently, the Mets are 64-63. Against the aforementioned second division clubs, the Mets are 17-18, one game over .500. If the Mets played those 35 games at a similar clip than they did against the intradivision 90+ loss teams in 2015, the Mets would’ve gone 22-13. That would mean that the Mets would be a more respectable 69-58. That would’ve put them in a tie with the Giants for the first Wild Card and five games back in the division.
Now, if the Mets beat the aforementioned second division clubs at the same rate other teams beat them, their record against those teams would be be 21-14. This means the Mets record would be 68-59 giving them a half game lead for the second Wild Card and putting them a game behind the Giants for the first Wild Card.
Overall, people can point to injuries all they want, but the simple fact is even with those injuries, the Mets were still better than the Phillies, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Padres. They just didn’t play like it.
The Mets have a chance to reverse course. Of their remaining 35 games, 22 of them are against teams under .500. If the Mets truly want to win the Wild Card, they’ll need to destroy those opponents like they did in 2015. That begins tonight when the Mets begin their three game set against the Phillies.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online
Overall, if you want to excuse the Mets performance due to injuries, there’s merit to the argument. However, don’t let that excuse away Terry Collins’ and Sandy Alderson’s performance. They chose to go with players have established they can’t do it instead of giving other players a legitimate opportunity.
On the Fourth of July, Matt Harvey made his last start of the season. Despite Harvey’s understandably poor performance, he left behind a gaping hole in the rotation the Mets didn’t fill.
First, the Mets went with Logan Verrett. In seven starts, Verrett went 0-3 with a 7.18 ERA and a 1.541 WHIP while only averaging five innings per start. He then lost his job to “fan favorite” Jon Niese who had been demoted to the bullpen by the Pirates before being traded to the Mets. In his lone start, Niese pitched 4.2 innings allowing four hits, four earned, and two walks with six strikeouts.
Combined, Verrett and Niese were 0-4 with a 7.30 ERA and a 1.524 WHIP. Last night, Seth Lugo walked off the mound after 6.2 terrific innings having only allowed seven hits, one run, one earned, and one walk with three strikeouts. He’d leave being two base runners that Jerry Blevins would allow to score.
When David Wright and Lucas Duda went down with season ending injuries, the Mets first turned to Eric Campbell who hit .159/.270/.222 with one double, one homer, and five RBI.
Next up was Matt Reynolds, who not only helped fill-in for Wright, but also provide some days off for Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera. Reynolds hit .211/.231/.382 with seven doubles, two homers, and 11 RBI.
Next up was Ty Kelly. As an infielder, Kelly is hitting .227/.292/.364 with one homer and three RBI.
Combined, Campbell, Reynolds, and Kelly have hit .191/.264/.315 with eight doubles, four homers, and 19 RBI. These are the options the Mets went with while making excuses why T.J. Rivera shouldn’t be called-up to the majors. When Rivera finally fot his shot, he hit .355/.344/.419 with two doubles and three RBI in nine games.
So yes, injuries have impacted the Mets. However, who they chose to replace those injured players had a similar negative impact. The Mets would’ve been much better with a healthy Harvey, Wright, and Duda. It’s possible they would’ve been over .500 and in the Wild Card race if they had given Lugo and Rivera a shot earlier.
With Travis d’Arnaud missing time with a shoulder injury and struggling at the plate all season, the Mets were all but forced to inquire about Jonathan Lucroy.
The Mets interest in Lucroy was understandable as the team needed another bat in the lineup with Lucas Duda and David Wright being gone for the season, Yoenis Cespedes being hobbled with a quad injury, and Curtis Granderson, Michael Conforto, and yes, d’Arnaud having down seasons. The Mets needed another bat, and Lucroy seemed to be the answer with him hitting .299/.359/.482 with 17 doubles, three triples, 13 homers, and 50 RBI. That was the type of production the Mets were hoping to add at the trade deadline.
For whatever reason, the Mets were not able to swing a trade for Lucroy at the trade deadline. However, they were able to get Lucroy’s production.
Since the trade deadline passed, d’Arnaud is hitting .311/.354/.444 with two homers and three RBI. It is exactly what the Mets were hoping to get from him after a season in which d’Arnaud hit .268/.340/.485 with 14 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 41 RBI in 67 games last year. It seems that d’Arnaud has turned his season around.
It could be that his shoulder is feeling better. It could be a mechanical adjustment he has made at the plate. It could also be that he is able to just relax and go out there and hit now that the trade deadline has passed. Whatever the case may be, the important thing from the Mets perspective is they seem to have d’Arnaud back.
Editor’s Note: this was also published on Mets Merized Online
For the second straight year, it appears that the Mets have been snakebitten. They have lost Lucas Duda, Matt Harvey, and David Wright to season ending injuries. It would be easy to blame injuries like these as well as the other injuries the Mets have had for the team underachieving this season. There’s just one problem with that – the Mets have been amongst the healthiest teams in all of baseball.
According to Spotrac, the Mets rank 15th in the majors and 8th in the National League with the team having placed 13 players on the disabled list. With those 13 players on the disabled list, the Mets have missed 549 player days, which ranks 23rd in the majors and 12th in the National League.
Now, there are some fair criticisms in pointing just to the disabled list figures. First, as we have seen with the Mets handling of Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets wait too long before putting a player on the disabled list. Second, this list does not account for players like Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard who are pitching despite having bone spurs in their elbows which will have to be surgically removed in the offseason. However, this point-of-view is a bit myopic when considering the injuries the Mets main competition for the two Wild Card spots have endured.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The 63-49 Dodgers currently have the top Wild Card spot by four games. They have also put a major league leading 25 players on the disabled list while losing a major league leading 1,400 player days.
Brett Anderson was gone for the season before he threw a pitch, Hyun-Jin Ryu only made one start, and Alex Wood lasted just 10 starts. That’s 3/5 of the Dodgers Opening Day rotation up in smoke. On top of that, the Dodgers have lost important bullpen pieces in Yimi Garcia and Chin-hui Tsao.
The Dodgers have also been decimated in the outfield. Valuable fourth outfielder and bench bat Andre Ethier was also gone before the season started. He was needed more than usual considering the Dodgers finally released Carl Crawford, had to deal with Yasiel Puig not producing, and recently losing the pleasantly surprising Trayce Thompson in the outfield.
All of this pales in comparison to the Dodgers losing Clayton Kershaw to the disabled list. Kershaw was once again dominating, was the presumptive Cy Young Award winner, and quite possibly an MVP candidate. With his back injury, no one can be quite sure when he will return. There is no more damaging blow to any team in all of baseball than the Dodgers losing Kershaw.
And yet, the Dodgers keep winning games, and that is why they find themselves the current Wild Card leader.
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals have put one fewer player on the disabled list than the Mets, but they have also lost 174 more player days to the disabled list. Like the Dodgers, they are also ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card Standings.
The biggest injury the Cardinals have had to deal with is their starting shortstop Jhonny Peralta. Offseason surgery to repair a ligament in his left thumb has limited him to 36 games this season. When he has played, he has been largely ineffective. Initially, the Cardinals opted to go with Mets cast-off Ruben Tejada as Peralta’s short term replacment, but he was inffective and wounded up on the disabled list himself. His replacement, Aledmys Diaz was having a terrific rookie season which led to him being named an All Start. However, he is now on the disabled list with a hairline fracture in this thumb.
The Cardinals have also had a number of key position player injuries. During the season, the Cardinals have placed Brandon Moss and Tommy Pham on the disabled list at points during the season. This has left the team looking to find solutions at first base and center field during the season.
The Cardinals pitching staff has also been hit hard. Lance Lynn went from a member of the rotation to losing the entire 2016 season to Tommy John surgery. Closer Trevor Rosenthal has been dealing with injuries and ineffectiveness all year, and he has finally wound up on the disabled list. One of his key set-up men, Jordan Walden, has yet to throw a pitch all season due to a shoulder strain and a lat injury. The team also had to deal with losing key relievers from last season, Seth Maness and Kevin Siegrist, for a stretch of time.
Recently, they had Michael Wacha and Matt Holliday go down with what could be season ending injuries.
Despite these injuries, the Cardinals are 2.5 games up on the Mets this season in the Wild Card standings.
National League East
It is interesting to note that the two teams the Mets are chasing in the National League East, the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals, are two of the healthiest teams in all of baseball.
For the Marlins part, it seems to be a combination of good luck and youth. Seven of the eight Marlins everyday players are 28 and younger. The two 28 year olds, Justin Bour (ankle sprain) and Dee Gordon (PED suspension) are the only players from the starting lineup to be placed on the disabled list this season.
Other than Wei-Yin Chen, the Marlins pitching staff has been remarkably healthy. Most importantly, Jose Fernandez has been the dominant starting pitcher he was always supposed to be.
The Nationals being so health is quite remarkable. Each and every season, players like Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Stephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth, and Ryan Zimmerman were usually good for at least one disabled list stint during the course of the season. So far this year, Starsburg had a short stint on the disabled list, and Zimmerman just landed on the disabled list with a wrist contusion.
The reason why the Nationals are in a much better place injury wise is part luck, but it is mostly them doing things differently. They created a larger and a multi disciplined medical team of experts to address injuries. They have addressed each and every aspect of player preparation and health. The result so far is a much healthier Nationals team both on and off the field.
The Nationals changing how they have approached injuries show how other teams have adapted and dealt with injuries better than the Mets – so have the other teams competing for the two Wild Card spots. The Mets aren’t trailing in the Wild Card race due to their health. In fact, they may still be in the race because the Dodgers and Cardinals have had to deal with more injuries than they have.
Later today, Prince Fielder is holding a press conference to announce his retirement. Fielder is retiring after having had two cervical fusion surgeries over the past three seasons. Fielder is “retiring” because no doctor will medically clear him to play baseball again.
It’s a sad end to the only 32 years old Fielder’s career. Over his 12 year career, Fielder hit .283/.382/.506 with 319 homers and 1,028 RBI. Coincidentally, his father, Cecil Fielder, had his career cut short due to injuries, and he finished his career with 319 homers as well.
Despite his girth, Fielder was quite possibly the most durable player in baseball. From his first full season with the Brewers in 2006 until his last year with the Tigers in 2012, Fielder played 157 games or more each season. He played in 162 games in four of those eight seasons. Over that stretch, he was one of the most feared hitters in baseball hitting .286/.390/.528 while averaging 35 homers and 108 RBI. Arguably, he was putting together a Hall of Fame career before injuries struck. Now, Fielder finds himself on the outside looking in when it comes to possibly being inducted into the Hall of Fame.
With Fielder retiring, you just can’t help thinking about David Wright.
Like Fielder, Wright just had cervical fusion surgery this year. Like Fielder, this is Wright’s second major injury over the past couple of seasons. Furthermore, like Fielder, Wright has seen a potential Hall of Fame career derailed by injuries.
However, unlike Fielder, Wright is not ready to call it quits just yet. As Wright said, his plan is to return next year saying, “I plan on coming back and being the player that I feel like I’m capable of being.” (James Wagner, New York Times). Bottom line is Wright loves baseball, and he would do it all over again knowing the injuries he has sustained saying, “I love the game of baseball. I can’t wait to get back out there. But the most important thing for me now is my health and trying to get my neck healed.” (Adam Rubin, ESPN.com).
So far, Wright hasn’t been beaten down by the injuries to the extent Fielder has. However, with the spinal stenosis and this cervical fusion surgery, you have to wonder how much longer until a doctor says Wright can no longer play? For that matter, when is Wright going to finally say it is no longer worth it? For his sake, and for those Mets fans that love him dearly, hopefully that day won’t come until Wright leaves on his own terms, which would hopefully include a World Series ring.
Unfortunately, Prince Fielder didn’t get that chance. His fusion surgeries were too much for him. Hopefully, it doesn’t come to that for David Wright.
With Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes joining David Wright and Lucas Duda on the disabled list, the Mets needed to go to AAA to find a utility infielder. For some reason or another they chose Ty Kelly.
Kelly has been a nice story this year. He dominated AAA forcing the Mets to finally give him the major league shot the Orioles, Mariners, Blue Jays, and Cardinals declined to give him. He had gone from a career minor leaguer to a player who has finally gotten his shot to be a major leaguer at 27 years old. On June 8th, he even hit his first career home run off future Pirates ace James Taillon. Kelly’s story has been one of perseverance and one of triump. However, that terrific story does not make Kelly a major leaguer.
In 14 games, Kelly was over-matched hitting .148/.207/.259 with that one home run being his only extra base hit. He has showed why four other organizations passed over him time and again. He has shown why the Mets buried him on the depth chart after his 14 game stint. Given his performance, it makes you question why he is back with the Mets,e especially with the team having presumably better options down in the minors.
If you are going to stick with the 40 man roster, Eric Campbell would have been a better choice. He is a career .221/.310/.312 hitter, and he hit .159/.270/.222 this year. He had some flashes this year with a five game stretch that saw him hit .273/.467/.273 while playing well defensively at first and third base. On different occasions over the course of his career, he has come up with key pinch hits. Since his demotion, he has hit .363/.493/.593 in AAA, which shows that he has the ability to get on base, and anyone can hit in the Pacific Coast League. Regardless of your position on Campbell, he is a better player than Kelly.
However, Campbell has been given numerous chances to stick with the Mets, and he still hasn’t. It has gotten to the point that the Mets now favor Kelly over him. The Mets have moved on from him. With that in mind, it might be time to consider someone other than Campbell and Kelly.
Again, the Mets should give T.J. Rivera consideration. He was a Pacific Coast League All STytar, and he is hitting .340/.380/.490 in 90 games. He has more defensive versatility than Kelly and Campbell as he plays all four infield positions, and he can also play left field. He may not be a plus defender at any of those positions, but neither are Kelly or Campbell. He may be a 27 year old rookie, but so was the older Kelly when he was called-up with year. Overall, the only difference between Rivera and Kelly is that Kelly got his shot; a shot in which Kelly has mostly failed.
Admittedly, a pennant race is not the best time to give someone like Rivera a shot to prove he is capable of playing in the majors. Then again, a pennant race is an even worse time to keep sending out a player like Kelly who has shown he struggles at the major league level. If you are going to pass on Campbell, who has shown some ability to play at the major league level, the Mets should have called-up Rivera who provides the team more versatility despite not being a switch hitter like Kelly.
Sooner or later, you’d have to imagine Rivera will get his fairy tale shot like Kelly did. He might even do more with the chance than Kelly has. It would be in the Mets best interests to find out.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors
Unlike last season, the Mets were proactive in replacing an injured player on their roster when the obtained James Loney from the San Diego Padres to replace Lucas Duda who was slated to be on the disabled list for a long time with a broken back.
It was a good move as Loney was not only cheap, he was immediately available. He was certainly better than what the Mets internal options of Eric Campbell and Ty Kelly.
Coming into the season, Loney was a .285/.338/.411 hitter who averaged 10 homers and 64 RBI in a season. His OPS+ was 105 meaning he was roughly a league average hitter. In his 55 games with the Mets, Loney has been a slightly better version of himself hitting .289/.339/.443 with six homers and 23 RBI. His OPS+ is 108, which is what Mo Vaughn‘s OPS+ was as a Met. Long story short, Loney is the perfect stopgap, but he is not a difference maker. The problem is he was taking over for a difference maker in the lineup.
Since Duda became the Mets everyday first baseman, he has hit .249/.350/.483 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI. His OPS+ over that stretch is 133 meaning he is batting at an All Star caliber level, and he is a difference maker at the plate. To put it into context, David Wright‘s career OPS+ is 133.
Essentially, the Mets have gone from a David Wright level of production at first base back to the days of Mo Vaughn. This drop in production goes a long way to explain why the Mets offense has been struggling since Duda has gone down with the broken back.
With the grim prognosis for Duda this season, and with the trade deadline having gone by, the Mets never made the necessary upgrade at first base. If the Mets were to shift Jay Bruce (128 OPS+ this season) or Michael Conforto to first base (129 OPS+ last year), they would go a long way to replacing that production. It is certainly worth a shot. The time for stopgaps is over. The Mets now need to find a real replacement for Duda’s offense. That isn’t Loney. Hopefully, it could be Bruce or Conforto.
Coming into the season, the Mets were high on Dilson Herrera, and they viewed him as the second baseman of the near future. It is why the Mets let postseason hero Daniel Murphy walk, and they eschewed other long term free agent options to trade for Neil Walker who was a year away from free agency. However, the Mets made it perfectly clear they were willing to forego Herrera as the second baseman of the future if the right player came along. That is why the Mets doggedly pursued Ben Zobrist in the offseason. For the right piece or for the right price, the Mets were going to move on from Herrera to make the team better.
It is just hard to believe that player was Jay Bruce.
There is a lot to like about Bruce. He is a traditional slugger who is leading the league in RBI. He has a very affordable team option. He is insurance against Yoenis Cespedes missing an extended period of time this year, and quite possibly insurance against him leaving in free agency. He also helps with a sluggish Mets offense and with the Mets inability to hit with runners for scoring position. He is also more of the same.
This is a Mets team full of low OBP, high slugging outfielders – Bruce, Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, and Michael Conforto. With the exception of Cespedes, all of the Mets current outfield options are left-handed batters. What this team doesn’t have is a center fielder. Currently, the best defensive center fielder on the team is Alejandro De Aza. While he is the team’s hottest hitter and best defender, it is hard to imagine he is going to be an everyday player while the team sits one of Granderson or Conforto everyday. In sum, Bruce is a nice offensive upgrade, but he doesn’t solve the teams problems. With that in mind, it seems like Herrera was a steep price to pay for someone that doesn’t solve what ails the team.
It’s also selling low on Herrera in what has been a tough year for him. Herrera has gone from a .327/.382/.511 hitter to a .276/.327/.462 hitter in AAA this year. He has had nagging shoulder issues, and he has fallen into some bad habits at the plate. It has been the first time the 22 year old has struggled at the minor league level. However, given the fact that he is still young for his level, and the fact that his struggles are closely associated with an injury, there is every reason to believe Herrera will rebound and become the All Star second baseman the Mets envisioned he would become. That is a steep price to pay for a duplicative player that does not solve the Mets problems.
We are just seeing it now with Michael Fulmer in Detroit. Fulmer was the big time prospect the Mets traded last year. He is the leading Rookie of the Year contender, and he is certainly in the Cy Young conversation with him going 9-2 with a 2.50 ERA and a 1.089 WHIP. With each and every dominant start, it is a stark reminder how much the Mets need him this year with Matt Harvey‘s season ending surgery and Zack Wheeler being well behind schedule to return to the rotation. Overall, the idea behind trading Fulmer was to trade from depth to acquire a missing piece . . . a missing piece that was an imperfect fit. As we see last year, the Mets supposed depth was an allusion.
Now, the Mets did trade from depth with Herrera. Gavin Cecchini could move from shortstop to second, which now seems to be his destiny with the meteoric rise of Amed Rosario. Wilmer Flores could move over there next year. The Mets could always re-sign Neil Walker or another free agent or make another trade. Depending on David Wright‘s health, Jose Reyes could move from third to second. There are any number of factors at play, but as we see again this year, the Mets can never have enough depth as this team seems more snakebitten than any other team in the majors. With that in mind, the Mets are now less deep at second base, and they are quite possibly without their best second base option for next year.
The Mets traded away another big time prospect for another slugging corner outfielder. Hopefully, Bruce will have a similar effect on the Mets as Cespedes did last year. The Mets are going to need that type of performance to help them get back to the postseason. They are going to need that type of performance to help Mets fans forget about the player they gave away in Herrera.