David Peterson
Another series and another series win for the New York Mets. That’s five in a row to start the season.
1. As Starling Marte said, Brandon Nimmo‘s hustle rubs off on other people. That’s what makes this team great. They’re making each other play better and harder.
2. While the extra inning rule stinks, with Marte’s infield single and Pete Alonso‘s stretch, you can get used to extra inning replays for the Mets.
3. Marte gave the Mets two wins with his speed. It was the infield single, and then, it was the go-ahead run with the double, stolen base, and error on the throw. We’re seeing he can have an impact while still struggling at the plate.
4. Seth Lugo is back. He’s throwing strikes, getting spin on his curve, and dominating again.
5. As we saw with the homer, so is Edwin Diaz. He’s always a mixed bag, so we just have to ride the wave this season.
6. Tylor Megill shook off a rough start to have a very good start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He may very well be a special pitcher.
7. David Peterson did not deserve the demotion. He showed he is a Major League caliber pitcher right now, but he’s still seventh on the depth chart with Taijuan Walker set to return. This is a good problem to have for the Mets.
8. With the rosters shrinking May 1, Trevor Williams is putting himself on the bubble with his struggles. Part of that is Buck Showalter‘s usage of him not allowing him to get into the flow of the season.
9. In some ways, the Mets biggest hit of the season was the James McCann homer. If he gets going at the plate, this is a truly elite team with the way he has framed this season.
10. There aren’t a lot of positives with Trevor May‘s performance so far, but much of that is explainable. He dealt with arms issues, and Showalter is just asking him to do things he has never been comfortable doing in his career.
11. Showalter needs to stop shoehorning Robinson Cano into the lineup. While he can still contribute some, he is just not an everyday player or semi-regular right now. Other players deserve the playing time.
12. Luis Guillorme has earned his playing time, and he should be getting more. The DH allows to get his bat into the lineup and get rest for the outfielders who have been injury prone in their careers.
13. Mark Canha has cooled off, and he still doesn’t have an extra base hit. His hard hit rates are also concerning as is his poor defense to start the season.
14. While he’s had his moments, Alonso has been mostly poor to start the season. His defense has slipped completely, and he’s swinging at a lot of the zone. In some ways, this is very promising because once he gets going, watch out!
15. The Mets are beating bad teams, which is the key to making the postseason. In fact, that’s basically all they did in 2015, and they came within Terry Collins of winning the World Series that year.
16. It is a real shame Michael Conforto is done for the year. Not only is this costing him a year of his prime, but it is also costing the Mets a draft pick and pool money because Conforto had turned down the qualifying offer.
17. Given the year he had, Conforto probably should’ve accepted the qualifying offer and built back his value. That said, the talk around him rejecting the extension is plain wrong. That was a severely discounted offer anyone would’ve rejected.
18. Noah Syndergaard has been excellent to start the season, and Marcus Stroman has been quite bad. This hasn’t been discussed much because the Mets have been excellent with a very good rotation. That’s something the Wilpons never figured out. Make those decisions but make other ones to justify it.
19. In some ways, the Mets are about to get their real first test of the season with a long flight to play the St. Louis Cardinals on the road. This is a true measuring stick of where they are, especially with the Mets having Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt pitching in the series.
20. The Mets are the only team in baseball with 12 wins. It is a really good time to be a Mets fan right now.
This was just the latest example of how good this New York Mets team is and can be. There was every excuse not to win, but win they did.
They flew cross-county after playing the San Francisco Giants at home. The travel and let down after a big series win wasn’t a deterrent.
The Arizona Diamondbacks had the upper hand in the starting pitching department. Zac Gallen is a good starter, and David Peterson entered that season as seventh on the Mets starting pitching depth chart.
The Diamondbacks took the lead partially due to a Pete Alonso miscue in the third.
Pavin Smith hit a lead-off double, and he’d advance on what was ruled a Jose Herrera infield single. Truth be told, it was rather routine for Jeff McNeil (even with the shift), but Alonso ventured too far leaving McNeil with no one to throw to for the out.
The subsequent Cooper Hummel groundout drove in a run instead of being the last out of the inning.
There’s no sense in belaboring Alonso’s misplay. After all, Peterson didn’t cover. Also, he made a sterling play earlier robbing Matt Davidson of extra bases.
WHAT A RIDICULOUS PLAY FROM PETE ALONSO pic.twitter.com/U91dP4Piww
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 23, 2022
Alonso would also get the run back.
Gallen was perfect through three, but the Mets made him work. In the fourth, Brandon Nimmo had the first crack hitting a ball against the shift for a hustle double.
There would be runners at the corners with one out after a walk and fielder’s choice. Alonso went the other way to drive in the tying run.
Gallen would get through five allowing just that one run. The Mets were very lucky Gallen had a pitch restriction. They were also lucky Peterson was great.
Another night, another solid outing from a Mets starter. #LGM pic.twitter.com/pepb8gwDFc
— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) April 23, 2022
After allowing that one run, he kept the Diamondbacks off the board. Sure, there was some luck, but Peterson did his job.
In the fifth, Smith forgot how many outs there were. After a flyout, Smith was on third allowing the Mets to double him off easily.
In the sixth, he gave up a two out double to Ketel Marte. Drew Smith entered and got him out of the inning with a lead.
The Mets got that lead in the top of the inning.
Nimmo and Starling Marte led off the inning with consecutive singles off Oliver Perez. On Marte’s single, Nimmo was overly aggressive going first to third. He was lucky Davison dropped the throw. Marte followed the play and went to second.
Nimmo scored on a Lindor sacrifice fly with Marte advancing. That allowed Marte to score on the Alonso fielder’s choice.
The Mets were not done scoring. In the seventh, we saw James McCann break out hitting a LONG home run expanding the Mets lead to 5-1.
He got ALL OF THIS ONE! @McCannon33 pic.twitter.com/kasSqqe0r2
— New York Mets (@Mets) April 23, 2022
The Mets needed everyone of those runs as the bullpen struggled.
It started with Chasen Shreve allowing a pair of singles leading to a Daulton Varsho sacrifice fly.
Trevor May looked a little rusty allowing Hummel to double. May almost worked his way around that, but Christian Walker shocked everyone by hitting a very rough pitch up-and-in for a two run homer.
Edwin Diaz came on in the ninth to save the Mets 5-4 lead. After getting two quick outs, Varsho hit the game tying homer sending this to extra innings.
McNeil was the Manfred Man, and McCann led off the inning with a ground out to the right side allowing McNeil to advance. With the infield in, Nimmo hit one on the screws at Nick Ahmed.
Ahmed bobbled it, but with McNeil already holding, he was stuck at third. From here, we’d again see replay help the Mets in extra innings.
Marte hit a ball fielded deep and on the line. Davidson made a string throw leading to the out call. Upon replay, Marte beat the throw allowing McNeil to score the go-ahead run.
The Starling Marte speed 🏃♂️🏃♂️🏃♂️ pic.twitter.com/A7UXwhbl7A
— SNY (@SNYtv) April 23, 2022
With Diaz already used, Buck Showalter went to Seth Lugo for the save. This looked like the Lugo of old.
He struck out Hummel and Marte to start the inning. After walking Davidson, he got Walker to pop out to McNeil in shallow center.
Overall, this wasn’t pretty. The Mets blew a lead and then find a way, but that’s what they did. They won 6-5.
Game Notes: Mets bullpen scoreless inning streak ended at 17.2 innings.
The New York Mets will be led by Buck Showalter as the team sets to try to win their first World Series since 1986. Since this is their 60th season, here are 60 bold predictions for the season.
1. The New York Mets will win the 2022 World Series.
2. Howie Rose will retire after the season. The Mets have already tabbed their replacement in Jake Eisenberg, and Rose could not pass up the opportunity to go out calling a Mets World Series victory.
3. Rose will return in some limited fashion to SNY and will be a fill-in replacement in 2023 and beyond.
4. Francisco Lindor will be the NL MVP. Like Mike Piazza and Carlos Beltran, he’s going to have a huge second year. Unlike them, he wont’ be denied the award.
5. Dominic Smith will force his way into the lineup. Yes, he’s battling with J.D. Davis and Robinson Cano for the DH spot, but like he did in 2019 and 2020, he’s going to force his way into the everyday lineup and not relinquish his spot.
6. Edwin Diaz will be an All-Star. Diaz has been an every other year pitcher in his career, and following that pattern, this is his year.
7. The Mets All-Stars this season will be Diaz, Lindor, and Max Scherzer.
8. Jacob deGrom will receive some Cy Young votes. Whenever he comes back, he’s going to be deGrom, and he’s going to be so great, he’s going to appear on ballots.
9. Jeff McNeil will finish the season as the left fielder. That is an injury prone outfield, and McNeil will eventually be forced to move out there.
10. Robinson Cano will reclaim a starting job. We forget that when Cano played he was actually good in the field. If the outfield is as injury prone as we think, we will eventually play almost every day at second or DH.
11. Chris Bassitt will have a slow first month frustrating fans, but he will have a terrific stretch starting in the middle of May as he adjusts to working with the new catchers and Jeremy Hefner.
12. Starling Marte is going to have a fast start and quickly become a fan favorite. When he’s snubbed at All-Star time, fans are going to be livid.
13. Mark Vientos will have a thrilling MLB debut. Vientos’ bat is arguably Major League ready, and he’s going to get some run during some point of the season as a third baseman or DH. He may not relinquish a spot.
14. Brett Baty will be moved at the trade deadline. With the emergence of Vientos and the ground ball problems, the Mets feel comfortable moving him for that big piece at the trade deadline.
15. The Mets everyday catcher is not on the Opening Day roster. At some point, the Mets will swing a deal or call up Francisco Alvarez to take over as the everyday catcher.
16. The Philadelphia Phillies will be the Mets main contenders. Last year, the Atlanta Braves were dead in the water until the Mets were too injured. The Mets won’t do that again this year, and the Phillies pitching and hitters will give people more of a run than we think.
17. The Atlanta Braves will not challenge the Mets at all for the division. They’ll really miss Freddie Freeman, the bullpen will falter, and they will not get Ronald Acuna Jr. back in time.
18. Tylor Megill will last the entire season in the rotation. Now that he’s here, it is going to be difficult to remove him from the rotation. If need be, the Mets will go to a six man rotation to keep him in the majors.
19. Carlos Carrasco will rebound and will pitch like he did with Cleveland, but he will not make more than 20 starts.
20. Trevor Williams will become a huge part of the Mets bullpen as he becomes more of a fastball/slider pitcher.
21. Steve Cohen will purchase SNY during the course as the 2022 season as the Wilpons are scared off by the increasing rights deals with streamers.
22. The Mets will have multiple Gold Glove winners with Lindor and Marte.
23. Hefner will get interviews for managerial positions with other teams after this season.
24. So will Eric Chavez.
25. The Mets will not have any player at DH for more than 40 games this season.
26. J.D. Davis will make multiple relief appearances for the Mets this season.
27. The Joely Rodriguez trade will work out as well as the Alex Torres trade did for the Mets.
28. None of the Mets outfielders will play over 135 games this season.
29. Fans will fall in love with Nick Plummer and get more frustrated by Khalil Lee.
30. Mark Canha will play more games than any other Mets outfielder, but he will have the lowest WAR out of all the regular outfielders.
31. There will be an issue over Marcus Stroman not receiving a video tribute when the Chicago Cubs visit the Mets in September.
32. Old Timers’ Day will have one team wearing the 1986 Mets jerseys and the other team wearing the black jerseys.
33. Carlos Beltran will not return to Citi Field for Old Timers’ Day. We also will not see Carlos Delgado.
34. The loudest ovation on Old Timers’ Day will go to Piazza. The second loudest will go to Nolan Ryan, who will be a surprise attendee.
35. The defensive highlight of the season will come from Luis Guillorme.
36. Pete Alonso will take a step back defensively, and he will see more time at DH than initially expected.
37. A week or two into the season, we will hear some rumblings about Michael Conforto looking to return to the Mets. He won’t return, and likely, he will not sign with anyone until after the Major League draft.
38. Some team will crack the frequency on the pitch calling device, and we will eventually know it is them because they will be the surprise team of the 2022 season. It won’t be the Mets.
39. Mets fans will actually enjoy the Sunday Night Baseball broadcasts this season.
40. Showalter will be the 2022 NL Manager of the Year, and it might be unanimous.
41. Seth Lugo will return to his dominant form, but he will only be a one inning reliever. The multiple inning role will be assumed by Williams.
42. The Tom Seaver statue will be perfect.
43. Drew Smith will take over the eighth inning and will be groomed as the next closer. He will not take over the eighth due to any fault of Trevor May who will have another good year.
44. People will talk about how Scherzer isn’t what they thought he’d be and the contract was a mistake. Those people will be idiots.
45. The Mets are going to have a monster second half with them running away with the division.
46. With the Toronto Blue Jays winning the division, the Mets are going to make a push to get their unvaccinated players vaccinated to ensure their availability for the World Series.
47. Jeurys Familia will receive a tribute video when he returns to Citi Field, and there will be a mix of cheers and boos with probably more boos.
48. The Wild Card round will be a complete dud and fans will be clamoring for the return of the winner-take-all Wild Card Game.
49. We will see David Peterson bounced around between starting and relieving due to the injury issues with the Mets starting staff. He will struggle for it.
50. The Mets will not need to add bullpen pieces at the deadline because we will see pitchers like Colin Holderman and Thomas Szapucki emerge as quality relief options at the Major League level.
51. James McCann will have very similar production to what he had in 2021, and in short order, he will find himself in a catching rotation with Tomas Nido.
52. No New York baseball player will sign an in-season extension. That includes deGrom and Nimmo, and it also includes Aaron Judge.
53. There will be no negative articles written about Showalter this season even during a time in the season where the Mets slump (as even the best teams in baseball always do).
54. Taijuan Walker will make the fewest starts of anyone in the Mets pitching rotation.
55. The Mets will have a no-hitter this season, but it will not be from a starting pitcher going all nine innings.
56. This will be the last Major League season with nine inning double headers. We will see the return of seven inning double headers in 2023.
57. The Mets will announce their next Hall of Fame class, and it will include Al Leiter and Johan Santana.
58. Mets fans will not care about the Apple TV game, but they will be absolutely livid about the game on Peacock. Of course, MLB will not care one iota about the blowback.
59. Showalter is going to get Guillorme in a lot of games for late inning defense.
60. To reiterate, the Mets will win the World Series, and they will not have to wait another three decades for their next World Series.
Jacob deGrom is injured, and it’s significant. He has a stress reaction in his scapula which will shit him down for four weeks.
Keep in mind, being shut down for four weeks means he’s out longer than that. After that he needs to rehab and/or ramp back up putting the timetable closer to two months.
The good news is the New York Mets were prepared for this. Finally, they have the depth within the organization to sustain an injury to any of their starting pitchers, deGrom included.
With Max Scherzer, the Mets have a true ace atop their rotation even in deGrom’s absence. After him is Chris Bassitt, who is a very strong number two. We also know Taijuan Walker is a solid back of the rotation starter who showed he could actually be more than that.
After that, when healthy, Carlos Carrasco is a top of the rotation pitcher. If not, he’s a serviceable starter. At this point, we look towards the Mets depth.
Trevor Megill showed flashes of brilliance in his rookie year. Of course, he hit a rookie wall and tailed off significantly. Still, he’s looked great this spring, and he appears ready to at least be a middle of the rotation starter now.
Right there, the Mets have a very good starting five. That’s even before they have deGrom. In fact, that’s still one of the best in baseball.
It’s better when you consider David Peterson and Jose Butto will be in Triple-A. That’s seven pitchers. That’s quality depth before you get to deGrom returning or someone else emerging.
Now, can the Mets get more depth? Absolutely. Time and again, you see you can never have enough depth. That goes double for pitching and really for the Mets.
That said, there’s a difference between INVESTIGATING depth and DESPERATELY NEEDING depth.
The rumors from The Athletic the Mets have talked with the San Diego Padres about a trade centered around Chris Paddack and Eric Hosmer for Dominic Smith is well past panic.
Flat out, Hosmer is bad. He’s accumulated a 2.7 WAR in four years with the Padres. Aside from the pandemic season, his offense is replacement level. Aside from last year, his defense has been putrid with a -10 OAA in 2018 and 2019.
Better yet, Hosmer has a horrendous contract. He’s due to make $13 million in each of the next three seasons carrying him through his age 35 season.
Paddack is interesting. He had success his rookie year. He struggled since and had Tommy John. In the right hands, and Jeremy Hefner is the right hands, you could have a very good starter.
Paddack is an acceptable piece to take back in a salary dump deal. We know how those deals are supposed to work. You get the piece in Paddack and the bad contract, and in return, you give little to nothing back.
If you’re the Mets, that’s a player like J.D. Davis. He has no position. His stats are buttressed by an unsustainable BABIP and success mostly generated with a juiced ball. He’s got just two more years of control. This is exactly who you move.
Instead, the Mets are talking Dom. It’s nonsense. We know Smith is their best defensive first baseman, and he can fake it in left field when needed. We’ve seen he can hit, and his down year was attributable to injury.
Smith came to spring ready to play, and he’s impressed. He’s earned a starting job (again). You don’t trade him for a salary dump and pitching project.
That’s a Brodie Van Wagenen trade. As an aside, it makes even less sense to obtain Hosmer when you’re a team saddled with Robinson Cano.
Overall, yes, inquire on Paddack. You do that regardless of deGrom’s shoulder. Absolutely, go out and be a big market team and absorb a bad contract to get Paddack cheaper. That said, under no circumstances do you panic and include Smith in that trade.
The New York Mets were the first Major League team to swoop in and take advantage of the Oakland Athletics tear down by obtaining Chris Bassitt for J.T. Ginn and Adam Oller. It was a very strong move for the Mets with Bassitt being a terrific fit for the Mets rotation.
What is interesting with Bassitt is just how overlooked he is. Since 2018, he has a 3.23 ERA, 1.141 WHIP, and a 129 ERA+. His ERA is 17th best in the majors over that time frame. His 4.37 FIP ranks 43rd. His 3.22 K/BB ranks 56th. His 32.78% hard hit rate is good for 30th in the majors.
Going to Baseball Savant, Bassitt is among the best in the majors in limiting hard contact despite not having elite velocity or spin. As noted by Owen McGrattan of Fangraphs, Bassitt does this by how he mixes up his pitches as well as his release points. The overall result is his taking average stuff and having it play as a top of the rotation type of pitcher.
While that may sound a bit incredulous by the aforementioned numbers, keep in mind there are 30 teams in the majors. If you are in the top 60 in any category, you’re pitching at the level of a 1-2 starter. That’s where Bassitt has been. He’s pitching like a number two starter in terms of results. We can dicker about his stuff and natural ability, but the end result is Bassitt pitches like a two starter.
Of course, with the Mets, he’s nowhere near that. He’s a very large step behind Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer because the vast majority of starting pitchers are. There’s not shame in that whatsoever. When healthy, you can argue Carlos Carrasco is one of the best pitchers in baseball. After all, Carrasco was coming off a 153 ERA+ before he was traded to the Mets.
That’s just the thing., Carrasco had an injury riddled season. In each of the last two seasons, deGrom has been nicked up. Taijuan Walker has a lengthy injury history. Scherzer has had good health in his career, but he is also 37. Looking at the Mets rotation, it is both deep and questionable in terms of the ability to get 30 starts from everyone.
It is one thing to have Tylor Megill and David Peterson ready to step into the rotation. That is admirable depth, and it’s all the more admirable with Trevor Williams and Jordan Yamamoto in the mix. However, those are back end of the rotation type of guys. They are not pitchers who can reasonably replicate a top of the rotation starter.
That’s what makes Bassitt so important. By performance, he’s a two starter. However, in this rotation, he’s a number three, and you could argue he’s the fourth starter. When and if an injury occurs, the need to replace a top of the rotation isn’t that much of a concern because the middle to back end of the rotation pitchers on this team are really top to middle pitchers.
The Bassitt acquisition makes this rotation even deeper than it was, and arguably, it makes the Mets rotation the deepest in baseball. When all five of these starters are pitching on the top of their game, something that Jeremy Hefner has helped them do, there is no rotation better in baseball. That’s just how much Bassitt means to this team.
With the collective bargaining agreement stalemate, and Commissioner Rob Manfred announcing the first two series of the Major League season will be canceled, minor league baseball appears to be set to be the only baseball left to be played. This was the case on August 12, 1994 until the end of that season, and right now, we don’t know how long it will be until MLB and the MLBPA reach an agreement.
This begs the question about how this will affect the minor league season. In many ways, the answer is not at all, but in a more global sense, it is a huge impact due to all of the uncertainty.
40 Man Roster Issues
First and foremost, this lockout impacts players on the 40 man roster. Keep in mind with Major League rosters being capped at 26 players, the 14 players who were supposed to play in the minors are now not permitted to play with their respective organizations.
This past offseason, the New York Mets added Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio, Adam Oller, and Jose Butto to their 40 man roster. They’re now not eligible to play in games or participate in Spring Training. The same goes for players like Travis Blankenhorn, Khalil Lee, Patrick Mazeika, and Nick Plummer who were likely ticketed for Triple-A to start the season.
Spring Training Battles
If we look back to the pandemic shortened season of 2020, MLB had a very abbreviated “Summer Camp” with players reporting on July 1 and beginning the season on July 24. In 1995, the strike and lockout meant Spring Training was delayed. When the two sides finally agreed to a deal, Spring Training was just three weeks. We’re very likely to see something akin to that again.
As a result, we are not going to have the opportunity to see Spring Training battles breath. At least at the moment, Tylor Megill and David Peterson appear poised to battle for the fifth starter spot. With no real Spring Training, and both pitchers being shut down because they are on the 40 man roster, it would appear the Mets would be all the more emboldened to sign another starter.
Speaking of Spring Training battles, there are those veterans who signed minor league deals. For example, this offseason the Mets signed Daniel Palka who has played 154 Major League games in his career and Matt Reynolds who has played 130 games. They would be permitted to play in Spring Training, where they would not be paid, and they can then report to play in Triple-A Syracuse regardless of the status of the CBA negotiations.
Rule 5 Draft
As noted, players not on the 40 man roster are permitted to participate in Spring Training, and they can begin their minor league seasons when they are slated to begin. That is an enormous benefit for players like Carlos Cortes, Brian Metoyer, and Hayden Senger. Each of these players were on the bubble for Rule 5 protection, and the Mets opted to expose them to the draft.
This means Cortes, Metoyer, and Senger will get to play and improve. That will also give teams an opportunity to get a better look at those three players in determining whether they should be selected in the Rule 5 draft. Of course, that also works in the inverse with the Mets getting a deeper look into players they might be targeting.
Keep in mind, there isn’t much precedent here for this. In 1994, because there was a strike but not a lockout, teams were able to proceed with their business as usual and hold the Rule 5 draft in December (even if it was delayed twice). For the 2020 season, the Rule 5 draft had already taken place in December 2019 because COVID-19 was not yet a concern.
Another important note here is as MLB cancels games, it becomes easier to carry Rule 5 drafted players. As a result, the risk in selecting a Rule 5 player has been greatly mitigated. Another factor at play here is we may see players get drafted based on early season results who may not have been otherwise considered. To sum up, this is a quagmire.
Games
At the moment, the Mets have their minor league mini-camp. Minor League Spring Training is also set to officially begin this week. As of right now, according to their official schedule, the Mets are slated to play their first Spring Training game on March 12 against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Of course, games were supposed to begin February 28, but it was delayed due to the lockout. As of right now, there is no official word if games will be delayed further. That said, there will likely be some form of a Spring Training game schedule even absent a CBA being in place to allow the minor leaguers to prepare for their season. The season for the Mets full season affiliates are set to begin as follows:
- Syracuse Mets – April 5
- Binghamton Rumble Ponies – April 8
- Brooklyn Cyclones – April 8
- St. Lucie Mets – April 8
For those Mets fans who want to attend a baseball game, the Brooklyn Cyclones home opener will be on April 12 at 7:00 P.M. against the Jersey Shore Blue Claws (Phillies).
Coaching
Right now, the Mets are paying Buck Showalter a lot of money to manage a team which is not set to play. That leaves Showalter with the job of preparing to prepare for the season. In some ways, that’s extremely beneficial for the new staff with new coaches like Eric Chavez to come to work together.
It also gives them an opportunity to work with the minor leaguers in Spring Training, and perhaps, depending on the length of the lockout, to travel to work with some of the minor leaguers. This presents an enormous opportunity for players like Brett Baty, who is battling with Vientos for that future third base job. More than that, it allows some of the more unheralded prospects like a Harol Gonzalez to make an impression in camp and get an advocate from the Major League coaching staff in their corner.
That just speaks to just how different everything will be for minor leaugers. Yes, the players not on the 40 man roster will have no change to their schedule. They will report to Spring Training at the same time, and they will play the games like they normally do.
However, they will also get more exposure to Major League coaching, and they have more of an opportunity to distinguish themselves. Moreover, they will get to prepare for their season and work on their games while fellow minor leaugers who are on the 40 man roster will be at home unpaid and without a chance to work with their coaches to improve their game.
With the addition of Max Scherzer, it would appear the New York Mets rotation is set. After all, they already have Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker returning. They also have two interesting young pitchers in Tylor Megill and David Peterson, who should be given every opportunity to battle for the fifth spot in the rotation.
Looking at Megill first, he was a revelation when he was called up to the majors. Through his first seven starts, he was 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA while walking 11 and striking out 39 over 35.1 innings. For some, he was reminiscent of deGrom, and you could argue it was more like John Maine in 2006. Whatever the case, he pitched well in what was then a pennant race.
After those seven starts, Megill tapered off as he reached innings he never reached in his career. Over his final 11 starts, Megill was 3-6 with a 6.13 ERA while averaging just under 5.0 innings per start. On the bright side, his control remained strong with 16 walks and 60 strikeouts over 54.1 innings. When you see him, there is something very promising there, and it’s incumbent on the Mets to best figure out how to allocate his innings to have him ready for September and October.
Peterson was a different story. He followed a promising albeit statistically troubling rookie season during the pandemic with a poor and injury shortened second year. It’s difficult to know when the oblique began to start bothering him and impacting his performance, but Peterson followed a season with a 4.52 FIP with a 4.78. We would see his 125 ERA+ fall more in line with the FIP dropping to a very poor 73 in 2021. While the strikeouts went up, the walks remained high.
With these two, Peterson has the better pedigree as he’s a former first round pick. However, Megill has better recent success. All told, they are both still a bit raw for the Major League level. You can certainly justify giving one or both of them a spot in the rotation. The better option would be to keep them both in Triple-A to allow them to further battle it out and get ready for when the Mets staff has an inevitable injury.
Keep in mind, the Mets needed 19 starting pitchers last season. Of course, part of that was using pitchers like Aaron Loup and Miguel Castro as openers, but the point remains they needed that many starters. Marcus Stroman was their only starter to make at least 30 starts, and he signed with the Chicago Cubs last season. What the Mets need more than anything right now is pitching depth, and with their having a lack of near Major League ready starters in the upper levels of the minors, they need to manufacture that depth.
With that in mind, the Mets need to sign another starter whenever this lockout ends. Keep in mind, future Hall of Famers Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw are still available. There are other interesting stopgap options as well, and of course, there is also Trevor Williams, who the Mets added at the trade deadline last year.
Whatever the case, the Mets have four very solid starting pitching options if they’re healthy. In fact, when they’re healthy, they’re the top four in the majors. That’s the key. They have to be healthy, and the Mets have to plan for the event they won’t be. That is exactly why Megill and Peterson should be positioned to start the year in Triple-A whenever they permit this 2022 season to begin.
When Noah Syndergaard left the New York Mets to sign with the Los Angeles Angels, one of the talking points was the Mets are going to benefit from the draft pick acquired. The way things are going that may need to be their focus.
Syndergaard leaving is another big hit to the Mets already thin pitching depth. That’s problematic given all the question marks that rotation had even when Syndergaard was expected to be a Met in 2022. If this rotation falters, this is a team who is going to be given no choice but to rebuild.
Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are coming off injury plagued years, and they are 33 and 34 respectively. With deGrom having an opt out after the 2022 season, they can both be free agents. Taijuan Walker can also be a free agent after the season. Walker had a great first half in 2021, but he faltered in the second half and would ultimately finish the season with a 90 ERA+.
As stands right now, the last two spots in the rotation would go to David Peterson and Tylor Megill. Peterson followed a poor 2020 from a peripheral stat perspective with poor 2021 stats and a season ending injury. He showed flashes, but ultimately, he looked like he was not ready. Megill burst onto the scene, but he tired quickly and fell apart at the end of the season, which is quite understandable.
Given the dearth of Triple-A pitching depth, the Mets need to sign two starters to allow Peterson and Megill to further develop and try to limit their innings a bit. Given where the prices are now, Marcus Stroman is going to need around a $25 million AAV to re-sign. Realistically speaking, it’s going to cost at least $40 million to fix the starting pitching.
Keep in mind, starting pitching is far from the Mets only problem. With Michael Conforto a free agent, and the Mets never getting a left fielder over the last three years, they need to fill-in two-thirds of their outfield. Left field could potentially be filled by Jeff McNeil, but the team needs to both hope they fill in two infield spots while also hoping McNeil rebounds from a nightmare 2021.
That is also before you consider Brandon Nimmo is going to be after the 2022 season. In reality, the Mets will have to figure out how to fill out an entire outfield over the course of two seasons. While McNeil may be the proverbial cheap choice, he is now an arbitration eligible player and will be more expensive. Thanks to Brodie Van Wagenen, the same goes for Pete Alonso.
While the Mets are figuring out how to pay two more starters, having to pay arbitration salaries to Alonso and McNeil, they will also have Robinson Cano‘s salary on the books. Unless Cano has a Jenrry Mejia situation, he is going to get $24 million in 2022 and 2023 ($3.75 will be paid by the Seattle Mariners).
Maybe Cano can take over second or third. Maybe he is a utility player. If the DH comes to the NL, he could be the DH. It’s also possible he’s just an overpaid pinch hitter or a player who will need to be released. In any event, that’s a lot of dead payroll weight when the team is potentially looking to re-sign Javier Baez to play alongside his friend Francisco Lindor. On Baez, he’s projected by MLB Trade Rumors to receive a $20 million AAV.
Before the Mets look to rebuild their bullpen with Jeurys Familia and Aaron Loup being free agents, or build depth with Jonathan Villar being a free agent, they will add at least $84 million to the payroll to add two starters, re-sign Baez, and do whatever they are going to do with Cano. Again, that is before building a bullpen and depth, and it is also before arbitration.
From a competitive balance tax threshold, the Mets payroll is $128.45 million before arbitration. Adding $84 million puts it at $212.45 million. According the MLB Trade Rumors model, the arbitration salaries could increase the payroll by an additional $49.4 million. That puts the Mets payroll at $261.85 million before they fill in their vacancies at second, third, left field, right field, the bench, and the bullpen.
That’s also before they figure out potential extensions for players like Edwin Diaz, Seth Lugo, and Nimmo. It’s also before they try to figure out a way to get deGrom to decline his opt out. The question is do the Mets really want to have a payroll around $300 million for the 2022 season? Based on what we saw in 2021, the answer is a clear no. However, we heard some rumors as to why the Mets didn’t go past the threshold.
Sure, with some creativity and shrewd moves, the Mets may not need to get to the $300 million threshold to compete in the NL East. Then again, this team is going to hire Billy Eppler as the GM. Taking a look at the complete picture, the Mets realistically have two options: (1) spend like no one has before; or (2) rebuild. Losing Syndergaard tilted it a little more towards rebuild, but it is still early in the offseason.