David Peterson
If this was just based on performance, Corey Oswalt has been one of the New York Mets best pitchers this Spring Training, and as a result, he should be on the Opening Day roster. If nothing else, we have heard on a number of occasions Luis Rojas has been impressed with how Oswalt has looked.
Corey Oswalt was dealing. ♠️♣️♥️♦️ pic.twitter.com/CWHzj2eo3E
— New York Mets (@Mets) March 15, 2021
One of the biggest developments for Oswalt has his finding that extra gear on his fastball. Now, this could be the result of his going shorter stints during the Spring. It could also be the result of the Mets making more advanced data available to their pitchers and coaching staff. Whatever the case, that velocity is there right now.
If the concern is he couldn’t maintain it as a starter, the Mets do have spots open in the bullpen due to injuries this Spring. In his first Spring appearance, he struck out five of the six St. Louis Cardinals batters he faced. Now, it should be noted that came against mostly minor league players for the Cardinals, but it did happen.
More importantly, as noted, the velocity happened, and according to reports, it is something that has carried forward into team workouts and B games. Long story short, Oswalt has seemingly made the jump that took him from a fifth starter ceiling to possibly something more as a Major League pitcher.
In years past, especially given the injury to Carlos Carrasco, that could have meant a shot at joining the Mets Opening Day rotation. However, with David Peterson‘s emergence last year coupled with the acquisitions of Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto at the moment, there is no spot for Oswalt in the rotation in the short or long term.
That would mean the bullpen is the best destination for Oswalt. In many ways, it makes sense to send him there. He’s shown the increased velocity and effectiveness in the shorter spurts. Moreover, with Seth Lugo down, the Mets really need someone to fill that role. No, no one is saying Oswalt could be a Lugo in the bullpen, but rather, he can definitively be the type of reliever who can give the Mets multiple innings out of the bullpen.
Given the truncated 2020 season, that is of increased performance. It is also noteworthy with Taijuan Walker and some combination of Lucchesi, Peterson, and Yamamoto for the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation, the Mets are running three 5+ inning starters out there. That puts a stress on the bullpen to pick up the slack, especially when that happens three consecutive games.
Having Oswalt out there can alleviate some of that burden. Really, of all the pitchers currently in camp, it is just him and Robert Gsellman who can fill that type of a role. Given the rotation, the Mets probably need two or more pitchers who can reliably give you 2+ innings.
In some ways, just picking a role for Oswalt is what can best help him succeed as a pitcher. Remember, this is a pitcher who has bounced between starting and relieving for three years now. That has been coupled with abusive use and inexplicable fallow periods. If nothing else, this would put Oswalt in the best position to succeed.
If he succeeds, he can then help the Mets succeed in 2021. He has the increased velocity, and he has the ability to eat some innings for the bullpen. Looking at performance and need out there, Oswalt should be in the Opening Day bullpen.
The New York Mets bullpen has been through for a loop with the injury to Seth Lugo to start the season. Things have grown increasingly complicated by diminished velocity of Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances. With all that said, the bullpen has talent, and there are many spots accounted for already.
Guaranteed – Miguel Castro, Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Aaron Loup, Trevor May
Obviously, Diaz is going to be the closer coming off of a strong 2020 season. May is going to figure into the equation as a late inning reliever, and Loup was brought on to be the LOOGY. That’s the easy part.
Castro is out of options, and it is very likely he would be picked up off waivers if the Mets tried to send him down. Fortunately, that does not seem to be an issue with Castro having a great Spring striking out four in 4.0 scoreless and hitless innings.
After him, with Familia seemingly getting his elite level stuff back, he is a lock to make the bullpen. If nothing else, he can pitch the middle innings while the Mets hope Jeremy Hefner gets him back to his dominant form.
Bubble – Dellin Betances, Robert Gsellman, Drew Smith, Daniel Zamora
The 13 pitcher roster rule has been suspended for the 2021 season, but that may be a good general construct. Considering a five man rotation with the aforementioned five guaranteed spots, that leaves three remaining spots.
Given his salary and history of building up his velocity in-season, it is likely Betances makes the Opening Day roster. That leaves two spots available in the bullpen. Given the performances this Spring, that is going to be a difficult decision.
Gsellman has been a mainstay in the bullpen over the last few seasons and based on seniority he gets the call. Notably with him, the Mets did have the option to stretch him out as a starter, but they opted not to do that this spring with Gsellman only throwing 4.0 innings over three appearances.
Smith was the one reliever from the 2017 trade deadline debacle who has proven he could pitch in the majors. So far, he looks good, and the Mets are going to have to go out of their way to try to keep a pitcher with three scoreless appearances with no walks and three strikeouts off of the roster.
Finally, there is Zamora who probably presents the Mets best option to carry two left-handed pitchers in the bullpen. He has been a little wild with two walks over 3.2 innings, but he has also struck out three batters. That is typical for Zamora over the last few years.
Fifth Starter Competition – Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, Jordan Yamamoto
The injury to Carlos Carrasco certainly changed the complexity of the fifth starter battle. With his injury, that opened up two spots instead of one. Given the nature of the injury, the Mets could feel more comfortable putting Peterson in the Opening Day rotation as the fear of having to send him down at one point isn’t as strong.
If Peterson were to make the rotation, the Mets could put one or both of Lucchesi or Yamamoto in the bullpen. Both pitchers have been great this Spring, and they have both more than made the case they deserve to be on the Opening Day roster in some way, shape, or form.
Outside Looking In – Jerry Blevins, Tommy Hunter, Arodys Vizcaino
Blevins probably has a much better chance than this given his curveball looking great. However, he has only appeared in two games walking two and striking out three. While this arguably puts him ahead of Zamora, especially with his track record, adding Blevins would require the Mets to make a roster move.
With respect to Hunter and Vizcaino, they may well both prove to have an impact on the Mets in 2021. That said, neither quite seem ready to pitch Opening Day at the moment. That goes double for Vizcaino who has only made one apperance so far.
Wild Card – Mike Montgomery, Corey Oswalt
With Carrasco suffering an injury, the Mets are said to begin stretching out Montgomery. That would seemingly be an indication they are looking for him to begin the season in Syracuse instead of Flushing. Still, it is hard to overlook his ability to be another lefty in the bullpen and a pitcher who can give you multiple innings. That said, Lucceshi could offer that himself.
Oswalt has had a very good Spring Training with Luis Rojas being very impressed. His velocity is way up, and he has looked quite strong. In fact, we probably shouldn’t completely rule him out in the fifth stater competition. If it is about competition, Oswalt has a strong case to make the Opening Day roster. That said, the fact it’ll require a 40 man move serves as a significant impediment.
Opening Day Bullpen
Joining the aforementioned group of Castro, Diaz, Familia, Loup, and May will very likely include Betances giving the Mets two more spots to figure out. With Lucchesi and Yamamoto now poised to start the season in the rotation, it would seem the final two spots can go to pitchers who are strictly relievers and not converted starters.
At the moment, it looks like one of those two spots should go to Smith. It’s possible the last spot goes to Gsellman due to his ability to give the Mets an extra inning here or there, but it would seem his spot is about as tenuous as Betances’ is right now. Overall, there are two weeks to go and a lot can happen. It will be very interesting to see where things go from here.
Make no mistake, Carlos Carrasco suffering a tear in his hamstring is terrible news for the New York Mets. He’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, and he’s arguably the second best pitcher on the team even when everyone is healthy.
That said, this injury does present an opportunity for the Mets, or better yet, their pitchers.
As detailed on The Apple, prior to Carrasco’s injury, the Mets currently have a very interesting fifth starter competition between Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, and Jordan Yamamoto. So far, Lucchesi and Yamamoto have separated themselves from Peterson.
That’s to the Mets benefit because Peterson should probably begin the season in Syracuse. Part of the reason is his control and FIP, and the larger reason is with Noah Syndergaard returning, the fifth starter will be removed from the rotation. The Mets certainly won’t want to do that to Peterson.
Regardless of that, in the small sample size that is Spring Training, Peterson has just been out-pitched by Lucchesi and Yamamoto:
- Lucchesi – 2 G, 5.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 7 K
- Peterson – 2 G, 6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, K
- Yamamoto – 3 G, 8.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, ER, BB, 5 K
Looking at the stats, Lucchesi has probably been the most dominant, but he’s walked three. Yamamoto has been strong, and he’s shown the most progress of this trio. In fact, he’s really been much more in the zone than he had been with the Miami Marlins.
Based upon your point of view, you could make a strong case for either pitcher. Other considerations to account for are Lucchesi being 27 and Yamamoto only having one option remaining.
In some ways, margins that razor thin can be dangerous. Part of the reason why is it’s just Spring Training, and these pitchers have only thrown the equivalent of one start.
As we know, aside from the greatness of Jacob deGrom, pitcher performances vary start to start. Making important decisions on that can lead to bad results. We’ve seen it happen with the Mets.
One classic example is the Tyler Yates/Aaron Heilman competition in 2004. Yates lasted seven starts, and Heilman never really would get the chance to start. The butterfly effect of that was the Mets losing Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS.
Of course, there’s Glendon Rusch beating out Bill Pulsipher in 2000. Rusch was very good in the Mets rotation that year before pitching extraordinarily well in the postseason that year. Pulsipher flamed out, and he was moved for Lenny Harris, who was great off the bench for that team.
While people don’t typically look at it that way, that’s what’s at stake in fifth starter battles. Remember, the fifth spot in the rotation comes up less than five times the top spot in the rotation does.
Who the fifth starter is does matter. We’ve seen that, and having seen that, it would greatly benefit teams to have more time to make their assessments.
That’s what the Carrasco injury affords the Mets. It allows them to start the season with both Lucchesi and Yamamoto in the rotation.
They can see how they work with James McCann and Tomas Nido in games that matter. They can see them against Major League rosters and going through a lineup more than once. All of that gives them better information to make their assessments.
In the end, Carrasco’s injury created an opportunity for another pitcher to grab a rotation spot. We will now see who is truly up for the task.
When teams assemble their pitching rotations, they typically assemble them in order of the talent of their top starters. Taking the New York Mets as an example, Jacob deGrom will be the Opening Day starter. After him, with Carlos Carrasco possibly delayed to start the season and Noah Syndergaard on the 60 day IL, it is fairly clear right now Marcus Stroman would be the second starter.
If you are taking the long term view of the season, Stroman should not be the second starter. Yes, he is the second best starter available, and if this was Game 2 of a postseason series, you would definitively be handing him the ball. However, in the regular season, that does not make any sense.
Looking at deGrom, since he has been the best pitcher in baseball, he has averaged 6.1 innings per start. If you look at the two seasons prior to 2020, he averaged 6.2 innings. That means whenever he takes the ball, the bullpen is getting a break. That is important when you consider the bullpen gets increasingly taxed and taxed with each start. To that, here is the average innings per start over the last four seasons for the Mets projected 2021 rotation options:
- Jacob deGrom 6.1
- Noah Syndergaard 6.0
- Carlos Carrasco 6.0
- Marcus Stroman 5.2
- Taijuan Walker 5.0
- David Peterson 5.0
- Joey Lucchesi 5.0
- Jordan Yamamoto 4.2
Now, the Mets seemed to be blessed with pitchers who tend to go deeper into games than most teams. Still, when fully healthy, this will be a rotation with two 5+ inning starters at the back end of their rotation. That means a bullpen who gets increasingly used after deGrom starts will be asked to provide a lot more without much of a break.
That was something which truly presented an issue for the Mets during deGrom’s first Cy Young campaign. Yes, he received little to no run support far too often that season. However, he also would see the bullpen blow a number of late leads for him. Part of the result is that the bullpen had been taxed heading into his starts. Rather than having the bullpen in the best possible shape to secure a win from their ace, they were on fumes hoping for deGrom to give them a break.
That is partially how you take a season for the ages and turn it into a 11-10 record for deGrom. That is both a reflection of how wins and losses for a pitcher are overrated. However, it is also an indication that something is going wrong that a pitcher who is setting records can’t buy a win.
If we were to look at the current Mets rotation, the bullpen is going to be well rested when deGrom takes the mound. Typically speaking, they will need to get about 6-8 outs in a game. That will leave them well rested. That is exactly the right time to line up the bullpen for a Walker start.
Typically speaking, Walker provides 5+ innings in a start. After deGrom, the bullpen will be well poised to provide that. Of course, after that, the Mets will have run through some of their bullpen. That is when you combat that by going to Syndergaard or Carrasco (if healthy) or Stroman. The Mets can then go to their 5+ inning fifth starter whether that is Luccesi, Peterson, or Yamamoto. Finally, the Mets could then go to Stroman who can eat some more innings before handing the ball back to deGrom.
By restructuring the rotation in that fashion, the Mets are positioning their bullpen to get breaks here and there. You are getting them regular work, and you are avoiding some fallow periods where they are not getting work because the top pitchers are eating up innings. Overall, the general concept is to stagger the pitchers by the innings they will reasonably provide instead of just lining them up without any concept on the impact it will have on the bullpen and staff as a whole.
Hopefully, that means a better rested Edwin Diaz. It could mean less of a need to rely on Seth Lugo for multiple innings when he returns. It could mean not needing to have the Triple-A to MLB shuttle for pitchers like Drew Smith. Instead, pitchers are put in a position where they get regular rest and work. That should help them succeed, and it should help prevent them from blowing games for deGrom.
This is normally the time of the year we see the New York Mets experience some sort of injury which significantly impacts their ability to win the division. That is part of the reason why everyone was bracing themselves over the Carlos Carrasco news.
It appears Carrasco had a bit of a setback in his preparation for the season. He has been shut down for a few days due to a sore pitching elbow.
In days past, this was a call for despair. Jeff Wilpon would be playing doctor, and Mets fandom would be using gallows humor suggesting Ray Ramirez was fitting him for a walking boot. This year, at least with respect to Carrasco, we’re not at that point.
Luis Rojas said Carlos Carrasco’s elbow soreeness from the live BP is something Carrasco has experienced before at this point of spring. That’s why the Mets aren’t concerned.
“He made it sound like it’s something he’s dealt with in the past,” Rojas said.
— Justin Toscano (@JustinCToscano) March 10, 2021
This is part of Carrasco’s preparation for the season. In fact, during Spring Training roughly a year ago, Cleveland Indians manager Terry Francona said, “Every spring after his first outing, he gets mild elbow inflammation. I would call it more maintenance than anything.” (Mandy Bell, MLB.com).
If this is just what Carrasco deals with at this point in the Spring, then nothing is out of the normal. He deals with the soreness and gets back to pitching.
Last year, that led to excellent results. In 12 starts, he was 3-4 with a 2.91 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9, and a 10.9 K/9. If that’s where this sore elbow is heading, the Mets are in phenomenal shape.
If not, and Carrasco is truly injured, well, the Mets are actually prepared for that. One of the losers of the fifth starter competition can slot in to take his space for a short period.
Certainly, the Mets would be in good shape having to start at least two of Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, or Jordan Yamamoto. Keep in mind these pitchers are only stemming the tide for when Noah Syndergaard can return.
In any event, the Mets are well positioned to withstand a severe Carrasco injury. That’s even if this is a severe injury. Early indications are he’s not really hurt.
If you had the opportunity to watch the Spring Training matchup between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, we’ll have to assume you were in Port St. Lucie. That assumption was made because not much of the game was actually televised.
Obviously, that’s an exaggeration. Alliteration was made here because ESPN made a very concerted effort to conduct a number of interviews rather than focus on the game action.
That was apparent when David Peterson was fighting it in the first inning, and the focus wasn’t on him or the game. Instead, Juan Soto was taking up much of the attention and screen.
That was a theme throughout the game. The announcers mostly did interviews. For the Mets, perhaps the most notable was Sandy Alderson, who was audibly frustrated while Jeurys Familia was struggling.
That was the obvious intention of the broadcast. They were talking baseball, and they were giving both teams an opportunity to introduce themselves to the viewers.
For their part, managers Luis Rojas and Dave Martinez were insightful. In terms of Rojas, his talking about how Francisco Lindor is not only a leader but also a teacher gave us a unique and fascinating look at the Mets new superstar.
There was also sentimental discussion about the legends who passed including Hank Aaron and Tom Seaver. Touching moments included Eduardo Perez talking about Joe Morgan, and Tim Kurkjian talking about Shannon Forde.
Again, not much discussion about the game. It did happen, but not really. If this was a regular season game, it would’ve been really annoying. However, even with issues ESPN has with their telecasts, this wasn’t a regular season game.
This was a Spring Training game. Much like they did last year, ESPN used it as an opportunity to help showcase personalities to help grow the game. It was EXTREMELY effective last year with it being the first step in Dominic Smith becoming not just a fan favorite, but also his becoming a more prominent player.
If you want to pick nits, the only people tuning into these games are the diehards who want to see the players. Still, there are others who throw it on just to watch something, and a telecast like this introduced them to some of the best players in the game.
For many, this broadcast didn’t work, and that’s fine. What matters is ESPN tried something to try to grow the game, and attempts like that is a good thing. We need more of that, and Spring Training is the perfect time to try that.
Overall, this worked last year, but it didn’t really work this year. Let’s see how it works in 2022 and beyond. More importantly, let’s see if this can help grow the game because at the end of the day, that’s what they’re trying to do.
Typically speaking, you don’t like to see pitchers jump over 100.0 innings from one season to the next. The problem is with the 60 game season in 2020 nearly every pitcher in Major League Baseball is going to have to make that jump. How to combat this is going to be a concern for all 30 Major League teams, especially the New York Mets.
The Mets have Marcus Stroman, who didn’t pitch last year, and they have Noah Syndergaard returning from Tommy John at some point this season. Carlos Carrasco is still building up his endurance on the mound after battling leukemia. There is also the opportunity for David Peterson to crack the Opening Day rotation. Throw in protecting Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in baseball, and you see how the Mets may want to find a way to limit everyone’s innings.
There’s more to it as well. None of these pitchers threw even 70.0 innings last year. We don’t know when, but it is reasonable to assume at some point the Mets starters may face fatigue and may hit a wall. As we typically see, there are going to be a few pitchers who battled ineffectiveness and hit the proverbial dead arm periods. That’s even with extremely well conditioned pitchers like deGrom and Stroman.
Really, the Mets need to figure out the best possible way to let their pitchers keep strong all season long, and hopefully, be in a position to be as strong as possible heading into October. In a different way, that was an issue the Mets had in 2015.
That season, the Mets opted to throw their five best pitchers to start the season. To a certain extent, Zack Wheeler‘s needing Tommy John forced the issue there. Beyond that, the Mets didn’t really plan for making the postseason. Their season as well as Matt Harvey‘s return from his own Tommy John surgery as well as Scott Boras forcing the issue with innings limits forced the Mets to confront the issue.
At times, we saw a six man rotation. That was something which was met with some resistance from the Mets young starting staff. To a certain extent, you could understand that as baseball players, especially starters, are creatures of habit. Considering that being the case, perhaps it would be better to start the season with a six man rotation to give the Mets starters a better opportunity to adapt.
Certainly, the Mets have the arms to pull that off. To start the year, they already have a strong top of the rotation with deGrom, Stroman, Carrasco, and Taijuan Walker. After that, they have a strong competition for the fifth starter spot with Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto. There is also players like Jerad Eickhoff and Corey Oswalt who could force their way into the conversation.
In terms of Spring Training competitions, we should not that they’re terrible in nature. You’re judging a bunch of players against differing levels of competition. You may get to face a team full of Double-A to Four-A players and dominate while another player gets to face Major League caliber competition. That leads to skewed results.
One way to combat that is to take your best six pitchers up north. You can ease your four best pitchers into the 2021 season and then get a better look at the fifth starters against Major League competition. This means while you are saving your best pitchers for the end of the season, you are also getting a better look at your pitchers in what could be described as a protracted competition.
Keep in mind, you can easily skip this sixth starter in the rotation if need be and have them available in the bullpen. With early season rain outs and off days, you may not want to go right to the sixth starter. That also gives the team an added benefit to see how a Lucchesi or Yamamoto could look coming out of the pen for an inning or more.
Overall, there is a lot of benefit to having a six man rotation to start the season. Pulling it off properly requires a deft touch by Luis Rojas. If done properly, the Mets can secure a postseason spot, and they can have deGrom at full strength to have a similar run to what he had in 2015. In fact, imagine what he could do now! But before that, we just have to figure out a way for him and the rest of this rotation to navigate the 2021 season.
Look across the diamond. The New York Mets are a significantly better baseball team. It’s not just better in terms of the rotation and starting lineup, but it’s also better in terms of their burgeoning depth. Despite that, somehow, the Mets failed to address their biggest need of the offseason – third base.
J.D. Davis is the incumbent third baseman, and simply put, he has done nothing but prove he has no business playing the position at the Major League level. In his career, he has played 770.0 innings there, and he has amassed a -19 DRS. As previously put in perspective, that was worse than what Wilmer Flores posted as the position, and there was near unanimous consent Flores should never man the position again.
The Mets were well aware of this, and that’s why they seemingly went out of their way this offseason to say they were going to upgrade at third base. He said the position was “up in the air,” and the team went on what seemed to be wild goose chases for Kris Bryant and Eugenio Suarez. For all we know, they are still doing all they can to pry those players loose from their current teams.
When the Mets were unable to acquire a real third baseman before the start of Spring Training, Luis Rojas was reluctant to name anyone as the team’s third baseman. That would appear to be an indictment of Davis, especially with second base becoming vacant with Robinson Cano‘s season long suspension.
At least on the surface, it would seem Davis would keep his slot at third with Jeff McNeil becoming the everyday third baseman. However, that’s not entirely possible with Davis not being able to play the position. In fact, Davis is literally the worst fielder in the Major Leagues.
Over the past two seasons, Davis has amassed a combined -29 DRS. That includes a -17 DRS at third and a -12 DRS in left field. Just to put in perspective how bad that is, he is the only player to appear TWICE among the worst 30 fielders over the past two seasons. As we’ve seen, the Mets just can’t hide him in the field. That goes double for third.
Making Davis at third even worse is the current complexion of the Mets pitching staff. Overall, this is a heavy ground ball pitching staff. To wit, here are their GB/FB ratios since 2017:
- Marcus Stroman 2.66
- Noah Syndergaard 1.68
- Carlos Carrasco 1.35
- Taijuan Walker 1.34
- Jacob deGrom 1.34
- Joey Lucchesi 1.33
- David Peterson 1.22
- Jordan Yamamoto 0.80
Looking at the make-up of the Mets top eight starting pitching options, seven of them induce batters to hit the ball on the ground. That makes having a good defensive infield more of an imperative. Yes, Francisco Lindor goes a long way towards doing that, but by playing Davis next to him, the Mets are effectively neutralizing Lindor’s effect.
Digging deeper, the Mets are going to play Pete Alonso at first where he is not a good fielder. That means the Mets are going to trot out a ground ball staff and have the Major League worst defense at the corners. Really, this does not remotely make any sense whatsoever. Really, it’s ponderous the Mets would even consider going in this direction.
When you look at it from that perspective, Davis cannot play third everyday. It only serves to hurt the team. Ideally, the Mets would pull off that blockbuster we’ve been waiting for them to pull off all offseason to acquire a third baseman, or they need to play Luis Guillorme everyday at second pushing McNeil to third, where he is a better fielder.
No matter what the Mets do, they simply cannot make Davis the everyday third baseman. They’ve done far too much this offseason, and they’ve built their team a certain way. Allowing Davis and his defense, or lack thereof, diminish or neutralize it, makes zero to no sense.
The Mets have signed Taijuan Walker to join a rotation which already has Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman, and Carlos Carrasco. With Noah Syndergaard set to return from Tommy John this season, that means the fifth starter role on the Opening Day rotation is a temporary one.
That is yet another reason why David Peterson should be starting the 2021 season in Syracuse.
Entering 2020, Peterson was the top pitching prospect in the Mets organization, and at one point in his minor league career, he was considered a top 100 prospect. Even though he pitched for the Mets in that bizarre and truncated season, in many ways, Peterson remains a pitching prospect, and he should be treated as such.
If you are an organization, you don’t take your best Major League ready pitching prospect and put him in the rotation for just two months with the plan of moving him back to the minors or even the bullpen. As a plan, that makes zero to no sense. It’s a gross mishandling of a prospect.
That’s before you also consider Peterson still needs to develop. He did walk 11.7% of the batters he faced. Even with the caveat of Wilson Ramos behind the plate, that’s terrible, and it will not be sustainable for the course of a full season. To be fair, this has not been a significant issue during his minor league career, and as Derek Carty, then of Fangraphs, pointed out ground ball pitchers can get away with a higher walk rate.
The control manifested itself in other areas than just walk rate for Peterson. Last year, he was below average in terms of barrel rates and 10.2% of fly balls against him went for homers. That’s a rate which followed him from Double-A, and that is a poor rate. If you are a pitcher who pitches to contact like Peterson does, you cannot yield that high of a home run rate. These are areas Peterson should be able to address and improve. However, that is difficult when you are bouncing between the majors and Triple-A.
The good news for the Mets is they have built depth sufficient to allow Peterson to continue to develop in the minors. They have both Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto. In terms of Yamamoto, he only has one option remaining, and you don’t want to burn it if you don’t need to do it. With Lucchesi, the Mets have a pitcher who had a much better FIP than Peterson.
That’s an important consideration here. Peterson is not definitively better than the pitchers in the Mets organization. Aside from Lucchesi and Yamamoto, the Mets also have pitchers like Jerad Eickhoff, who should not be completely discounted with his now being over a full season being removed from a biceps issue, and Corey Oswalt.
The point is for two months the Mets have options. Those options could also include bullpenning games with them having both Lucchesi and Yamamoto. When you examine all the options, you see the Mets don’t need to force Peterson into the rotation for two months only to remove him and send him down to Syracuse or the bullpen. No, the better course is for Peterson to start the year in Syracuse to develop and be ready for when the first pitcher in the rotation goes down with an injury.