Daniel Murphy

Harvey Turned the Cubs into Jokers

I really thought Matt Harvey was going to pitch a no-hitter. He had the Cubs batters off balance. It seemed he already got his tremendous defensive play with Wilmer Flores leaping to snare a sure to be line drive base hit. He had all the run support he needed from a Daniel Murphy first inning homerun (of course) off of Jon Lester

Then the fifth inning happened. By the way, the fifth inning is the reason why I think the Mets are going to win the World Series this year. 

Harvey started the inning by plunking Anthony Rizzo. He then let up a line drive to Starlin Castro. Immediately off the bat I thought right to Juan Lagares, easy out. Lagares misplayed it into an RBI double. The score was tied 1-1. Then the Javier Baez got the Cubs first true hit off of Harvey:

It was Yoenis Cespedes with the “Throwing Out of Baserunners.”  The Cubs rally was over. 

The Mets responded in the fifth. Flores and Lagares got basehits. Harvey botched a sac bunt attempt leaving runners on first and second. The Mets were lucky Kris Bryant dropped the ball on what could’ve been an inning ending double play. Curtis Granderson then hit an RBI single to reclaim the lead. 

The Mets responded to the Cubs run. They would score in three consecutive innings. In the sixth, Travis d’Arnaud hit a homerun into the homerun apple. In the seventh, Lagares would single, and this time, Harvey would bunt him over. Lagares  was gradually expanding his lead, and then  he took off and stole third. This allowed him to score on a shallow fly ball to left. 

It was a tremendous slide by Lagares to just beat the tag. Tim Teufel was smart to send Lagares because he was taking advantage of Kyle Schwarber‘s inexperience in LF (he was a catcher in the minors). It was a good throw, but it took him a while to throw it. Schwarber would be heard from again in the eighth when he hit a homerun to CF, London, or Vancouver.  I can’t tell because he hit it so far I think it crashed through a window on a flight out of Laguardia. 

The Schwarber homerun knocked Harvey out of the game. It took that long homerun to do it. The Cubs couldn’t even knock him out of the game when a comeback line drive hit Harvey in his pitching arm. His final line was 7.2 innings, four hits, two earned, two walks (one intentional), and non strikeouts. He walked off the mound to a well earned standing ovation. Terry Collins brought in Jeurys Familia, who recorded the four out save. 

The save was punctuated by a Murphy sliding stop and throw to first. He looks like he can do everything right now. So do the Mets. They beat the Cubs 4-2, and they’re up 1-0 in the series. They looked like a pennant winner. They looked like a champion. 

Mets Must Stick with Duda

The Mets were trailing 2-1, and no one could hit Zack Greinke except Daniel Murphy. Murphy would lead off the pivotal fourth with a hit, and Lucas Duda drew a one out walk, which precipitated this: 

No, Duda is not the reason the Mets won. However, he contributed. Murphy stole the base, but it was made possible by the shift and walk. Duda is still a feared hitter. Rightfully so. He’s hit 27 homers and 33 doubles. He’s second on the Mets in OBP and first in slugging. 

Also, he’s hit well against the Cubs this year. Generally, he’s always hit well against the Cubs starters:

Starters

Jon Lester 2-6 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, and 3 K
Jake Arrieta 4-11 with 3 BB and 5 K

Travis Wood 4-15 with 1 double, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 5 K
Jason Hammel 0-1 with 2 HBP
Combined 10-33 (.303 BA), 3 BB, 2 HBP (.395 OBP), one double, 2 HR (.515 slugging)

I know it’s a small sample size, but you need to start a player with these numbers in this series. Duda is primed to bust out of this slump. This is the series to do it. 

Disregard Mets 0-7 Record Against the Cubs

I’m sure you’ll hear several times over the next week that the Mets are 0-7 against the Cubs. It’s not indicative of what will happen in the NLCS. 

First off, the 1988 Mets beat the Dodgers 10 out of 11 times. Secondly, this is a completely different Mets team. Here is a breakdown of the players who have played against the Cubs this year:

Juan Lagares 1-9 with 1 BB, 1 double, 2Ks
John Mayberry, Jr. 2-12 with 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 K
Daniel Murphy 9-25 with 1 BB, 3 doubles
Michael Cuddyer 2-17 with 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K
Lucas Duda 7-25 with 3 R,  2 BB, 2 RBI, 3 HBP, 1 double, 1 HR, 12 K
Wilmer Flores 4-23 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Kevin Plawecki 3-17 with 2 RBI, 4 K
Curtis Granderson 5-24 with 3 BBs, 2 RBI, 1 double, 6 K
Dilson Herrera 2-11 with 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
Ruben Tejada 1-18 with 1 BB, 8 K

Johnny Monell 1-8 with 4 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-7 with 2 K
Anthony Recker 2-4 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR, 2 K
Darrell Ceciliani 1-7 with 3 K

Eric Campbell 0-3 with 1 BB, 1 K
Overall, the Mets had a combined 70 ABs from players not on the playoff roster. They went 9-70 against the Cubs this year. There were an additional 50 ABs from players on the playoff roster, who are either on the bench or are platoon players. Those players went 6-50. Of a total of 171 ABs, 120 of them went to players who will not be in the starting lineup in the NLCS. Therefore, how can you glean anything from these games. 

As you may notice, there are no ABs from David WrightYoenis CespedesMichael Conforto, or Travis d’Arnaud. That’s half of the position players in the current Mets starting lineup. This is more than enough to turn an 0-7 deficit to a winning record. 

I’m confident the Mets changes will be enough to make it to the World Series. 

The Murphy Game

Baseball is special. While it’s been characterized as an individual sport with players seeking their own stats, it truly is a team game. You can’t have one player carry a game, even a hot pitcher. The offense needs to score for him. 

However, sometimes you get a player in a game that throws that premise out the window.  I’ve seen it once before with David Freese. I was it again with Daniel Murphy last night. It was the type of game that will launch the #Murphtober meme. That’s great and all, but what we saw last night can only be described as “The Daniel Murphy Game.”

The Mets are facing the probable NL Cy Young in Zack Greinke. Murphy gets a big hit knocking in Curtis Granderson to get the Mets a 1-0 lead. If you were on Twitter, you saw many Mets fans thought the game was over. Jacob deGrom seemingly didn’t have it, and Greinke was dominating. It really did appear that it was going to end 2-1.

Murphy then gets a base hit off of Greinke, who had retired eight in a row. Yoenis Cespedes flies out, and then the momentum of the game would change. Lucas Duda, who’s been lost at the plate, battled in his at bat earn a walk. Because Duda was at the plate, the Dodgers had the shift on with no one on the left side of the infield. Murphy lulled the Dodgers to sleep by trotting to second before taking off and stealing third. This set up Travis d’Arnaud‘s sac fly, scoring Murphy, to tie the game.

At this point, it was apparent nothing was going to happen unless Murphy did it, and he did:

Murphy was directly responsible for all three runs. However, the man refused to take full credit for the win:

Overall, how does this happen?  False presumptions aside, you wouldn’t expect Murphy to carry the Mets offensively. He’s never done it before. He’s not a power hitter. He doesn’t have a high OBP. However, he’s hot, and he has a belief in himself. That leads to incredible things:

Game Five of the NLDS will always be known as The Daniel Murphy Game. And yes, as the postseason goes on, it may become known as Murphtober. 

Murphy Wins the NLDS

I’m still not sure how the Mets did it. Jacob deGrom had nothing. Zack Greinke had his best stuff. Everyone not named Daniel Murphy had a bad day at the plate. 

However, Murphy was all it took. In the first, after a successful challenge awarding Curtis Granderson an infield single, Murphy came up with one out:

It was later changed to a double and an error, but it was a huge RBI hit nevertheless. He would be stranded.

In the bottom of the first deGrom was hit HARD. He couldn’t locate at all. The 1-0 lead quickly became a 2-1 deficit. Every inning thereafter deGrom was in trouble. Deep trouble. I still don’t know how he kept rope-a-doping the Dodgers, but he did. His final line was:

The stat line is so misleading because deGrom was not good at all, and yet, he was brilliant. He summoned everything he had and somehow fought through six innings in the biggest game of his life. Sure, Game One was incredible, but I was more impressed by this. He won this game by sheer will.

He got the win because of Murphy’s help. With the Mets down 2-1 in the fourth, Murphy singled. With one out, Lucas Duda worked out a walk. However, with the extreme shift and Greinke failing to cover third, Murphy stole third:

He would score on a Travis d’Arnaud sac fly, but with the Mets sputtering offense, the inning would soon be over. 

Murphy would come up again in the sixth, and did this:

He gave the Mets a 3-2 lead almost single-handedly. He went 3-4 with two runs, two RBIs, a stolen base, a double, and a homer. 

After deGrom’s final inning, Noah Syndergaard, who had been up and down all game long (not an exaggeration) entered in the seventh. He Thortuted the Dodgers. He was seemingly the only Met to get doubles machine Justin Turner out in this series. 

Jeurys Familia came in for the six out save. He zipped through the eighth. He got Jimmy Rollins to ground out to end the inning. He faced Chase Utley to start the ninth. He got perfect revenge by getting the coward to fly out to right on his way to saving this 3-2 game giving the Mets a 3-2 series win. The answer to your trivia question is Familia struck out Howie Kendrick for the final out.
This game was a microcosm of the Mets season. They struggled to score runs, but they got enough. They relied on their young pitching to take them home. It was very impressive. The Mets have now slayed the demons of 1988, 2007, and 2008. 

This game was gravy as the NLCS will be. Lets Go Mets!

Who’s Getting the Big Hit?

In order for the Mets to win tonight, Jacob deGrom needs to be great, and he will be. However, at some point, the Mets will need to get a big hit. Anyone is possible. Here’s why everyone on this roster is capable of it:

Yoenis Cespedes because he’s already homered off of Zack Greinke in this series

Michael Conforto because like Cespedes he has too. 

David Wright because he already has a big hit in this series. 

Curtis Granderson because he’s been the best Mets hitter in this series

Wilmer Flores because it’s an emotional game, and he’s at his best when he’s emotional 

Lucas Duda because he’s due, he’s hit Greinke, and because he knows how to clinch things

Daniel Murphy because he’s clutch, and he knows how to give deGrom run support in this series 

Travis d’Arnaud because he’s had one big game in this series and is due for another

Kirk Nieuwenhuis because he already has a huge pinch hit homerun in a big spot this year

Juan Lagares because he’s more than a glove, and he’s already hit a homerun in Dodger Stadium

Michael Cuddyer because he still has something up his sleeve

Kelly Johnson because we knew the Mets were onto bigger and better things when he homered in his first game as a Met (against the Dodgers)

Kevin Plawecki and/or Matt Reynolds because you never know who’s going to get the big hit

It’ll happen tonight. If you need more inspiration to believe it’s true just remember what happened 19 years ago today:

LETS GO METS!

Not This Murphy Garbage Now

There appears to be two types of Mets fans: (1) those who love Daniel Murphy; and (2) those who don’t. I’m in the former camp. Gary Cohen is in the latter (full audio). 

Now, it is way too early to do a postmortem on the Mets season. It’s too early. There’s still an important Game 5. However, I can’t fault Joe & Evan for addressing the topic with Gary Cohen. You don’t get him everyday, so when you get him, you want to address everything with him. That includes addressing the free agency situations of Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy. 

I don’t disagree with Gary regarding how the Mets will treat the Cespedes and Murphy situations. I agree that neither one will be back. Where I disagree with Gary is his statements about Murphy. 

First, he called Murphy a “net negative.”  Frankly, that’s nonsense. I understand Murphy’s flaws. He’s not a high .OBP guy. He sometimes makes curious fielding and baserunning mistakes. However, calling Murphy a net negative is a gross overstatement. 

If you’re using WAR, he’s generally been between a 2.5 – 3.1 player, which means he’s a solid starter. That’s nothing to sneeze at. If you’re using weighted runs created, or wRC+, his range is between 107-126 in the years he’s been a starter meaning he’s an above average player. Basically, Murphy’s a good player; not a “net negative.”

My other dispute with Gary is that Wilmer Flores and/or Dilson Herrera can take Murphy’s spot. First of all neither of them is the hitter Murphy is now. Murphy is a career .288/.331/.424 hitter. This year he hit .281/.322/.449. This year Flores hit .263/.295/.408, and Herrera hit .211/.311/.367. These two are young (22 and 20 respectively) with potential, but they’re not in Murphy’s league as a hitter yet. 

This is a playoff team now. Next year regardless of their free agency maneuvers, they will be a possible contending team with their pitching staff. It would be better to have some proven hitters like Murphy. It would also be nice to have Murphy as an insurance policy.

This year the SS situation was never fully resolved. It seemed like Ruben Tejada finally wrestled the position away until Chase Utley‘s dirty “slide.”  It’s the second time he’s broken his right leg. Flores may be forced to play more SS than anyone would like next year. 

Also, who knows about David Wright?  The Mets want to limit him to four games in a row. That means you need someone capable of playing third base on a semi-regular basis. It would be preferable to have someone like Murphy who can move other there and competently play the position. 

That doesn’t mean I think the Mets should give Murphy a huge free agent deal. Rather, I would start by offering him the $15.8 million qualifying offer. If he accepts it, great. You have him for one year while you wait for Herrera to develop and you find out about Wright’s back over a 162 game season. It’s an expensive insurance policy, but it may be a necessary one. 

If he rejects it, you at least get a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere. Alternatively, it will limit is market allowing the Mets to negotiate with him on their terms. With all that said, I don’t want to be talking about this. I want to talk about his two homeruns this postseason. I want to talk about Game Five. I want to be talking about the NLCS. 

So, let’s focus on what’s important here. That’s Game Five. The only Murphy discussion now should be how he can help the Mets win that game. 

C’mon Duda

If you’ve read this site before, you know I’m a big fan of Lucas Duda. So is my son. I’m rooting for him even if he’s having a rough NLDS. 

He’s 2-15 with two walks and nine strikeouts. That’s a triple slash line of .133/.188/.133. That’s ugly. It’s hard to justify giving him playing time. With that said, he has to start in Game Five tomorrow. Now, unlike most, I’ll admit my bias here. I like Duda as a player. However, that’s not the only reason I want him to start tomorrow. 

He’s had some success against Zack Greinke. He’s 3-12 with one homerun, one RBI, and two walks.  It is a small sample size, and he went 0-3 against him in Game Two. With his cold streak, you could argue it’s time to play someone else. 

If you sit Duda, then who do you play? One popular opinion floating around is moving Daniel Murphy to first and starting Kelly Johnson at second. That shouldn’t be an option with Johnson going 0-9 against Greinke. He’s also 0-3 with two strikeouts in his pinch hitting appearances this postseason. 

The next option would be Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer has had some success against Greinke as well going 10-40 with a double and a homer. He’s also struck out 10 times against Greinke. Given the comparability of Duda’s and Cuddyer’s numbers against Greinke you could argue the Mets should start Cuddyer, which is something no Mets fan is lobbying for right now. 

However, I believe you have to start Duda over Cuddyer. If you don’t, this leaves your right handed pinch hitting options to Kevin Plawecki, your backup catcher, and Juan Lagares, the Mets defensive replacement. The Dodgers will have three lefties in the pen assuming Clayton Kershaw isn’t available. I’d prefer Cuddyer pinch hitting in this spot over Lagares or Plawecki. 

Lastly, Duda has been extremely streaky this year. He can flip the switch at any moment. He did go 0-4 last night, but he also gave one a ride last night. Hopefully, it was a sign he’s coming out of it. It’s reason enough to play him tomorrow. I like focusing on this reason other than the lack of better options. 

So, I’m hoping the Mets play Duda, and he gives one a ride. He’s done it before against Greinke. He can do it again. 

Well That Was Disappointing

Honestly, I thought the Mets were going to find a way yesterday. I really did. Even going into the bottom of the ninth, I thought they were going to do it. 

The main reason the Mets lost last night was Clayton Kershaw was Clayton Kershaw. He pitched 7.0 innings pretty much allowing only a Daniel Murphy fourth inning homerun. My fears came true. However, the Mets were far from perfect, and they didn’t capitalize on their chances. 

First, Kershaw threw 94 pitches. Of those 94 pitches, 64 of them were strikes. One of of looking at that is saying, Kershaw was on, and when he’s on what can you do?  However, there is another point to consider. Of those 64 strikes, only were 15 of them were looking. That means the Mets came up swinging. They came up swinging when you wanted to work deep counts to get Kershaw out of the game early. 

It shouldn’t be all that surprising that Steven Matz couldn’t keep up with Kershaw. Very few can. I know I’m in the minority, but I don’t think he was that good. There were a lot of hard hit balls. He couldn’t get the big out in the third. 

The game winning rally started because Matz got too cute with Kershaw. I realize he allowed a broken bat RBI single to Adrian Gonzalez, but that’s where you bear down. You’re facing Kershaw. You have to know a crooked number in this inning means the game (it did). He then allowed a two run RBI double to Justin Turner (aided by a misplay by Yoenis Cespedes in left). Ballgame. 

The Mets rallied a few times, but they couldn’t get that big hit. It was frustrating. It is even worse when it happens in the playoffs. It could’ve been the clincher. Now, the Mets play a do or die game in Lis Angeles. I still like the Mets chances with Jacob deGrom

The Slide Debate

If you’ve been on Twitter, Instagram, or another social media site I’m not yet aware of because I’m getting old, chances are you’ve seen Daniel Murphy‘s takeout slide against Chase Utley:

    

Here’s the thing. If you want to tell me it’s a dirty play because Murphy can’t touch second, fine. However, you must concede two points: (1) Murphy slid; and (2) Utley could’ve avoided contact by sidestepping or jumping. With that in mind, let’s look at Utley’s slide again:

To avoid any confusion, here’s a still of the point of impact:

  

Is this the same slide as Murphy’s?  Could Ruben Tejada protect himself?  Of course not. Even if Tejada didn’t spin, with the way Utley slid/tackled Tejada, Utley’s arms are at Tejada’s hips. His face is buried in Tejada’s abdomen. This is not a baseball play. Stop kidding yourself. 

Another point, people have picked the ONE questionable slide in Murphy’s career. Utley is a guy with a reputation for being dirty:

https://twitter.com/RosenbergMerc/status/653073357152251906

So tell me this, how are these two plays or players comparable?  If you’re answer is anything other than they’re not, your a Dodger fan, hate the Mets, or both.