Daniel Murphy
With the Mets on the verge of losing Daniel Murphy, there’s a lot of holes left behind: (1) a middle infielder; (2) a left handed bat; and a (3) middle of the order bat. With prospects like Dilson Herrera, you’d prefer the player to be on a short term basis.
Right now the Pirates are shopping a player that fits this mold: the switch-hitting Neil Walker. He’s a career .272/.338/.431. He has an OPS+ of 113. He has a career WAR of 16.4 or an average WAR of 2.3 per season. His wRC+ is 114. Long story short, he’s an above average baseball player. It makes you question why the Pirates are shopping the hometown kid?
Well, there’s two issues. The first is he’s not a good defensive second baseman. While he may be a better hitter than Murphy, he’s a worse fielder. Walker has averaged a -5.3 UZR, which means he’s definitively below average at the position. He’s also not getting any better posting consecutive -6.8 seasons.
After this the bigger issue is money, which is the same reason the Pirates are shopping him. He’s due to earn $10.7 million next year. He will be a free agent after the year. On top of that, you need to trade for him.
If the Mets interest in Ben Zobrist is real, they can afford Walker for a year. If the Pirates are reasonable, the Mets should trade for him. He will fit many needs, and he won’t block the path of the Mets prospects. Who knows? If he has a good year, the Mets could offer him a Qualifying Offer and met another draft pick thereby offsetting some of the cost it took to acquire him.
Overall, Neil Walker would be a good fit for the Mets no matter how unrealistic the possibility of his addition may be.
Something occurred to me last night. The Mets have a real problem this offseason. It’s one that they partially created. In a nutshell, they arrived too soon.
At the beginning of 2015, no one saw the Mets winning the NL Pennant. They were coming off a 79-83 season. The already dominant Nationals added Max Scherzer. Bryce Harper wasn’t the only one who thought the Nationals were bound to win a ring. Even with Jacob deGrom winning the Rookie of the Year and the return of Matt Harvey most thought the best case scenario was the Mets competing for one of the Wild Cards.
What happened? The National faltered so badly they had to fire their manager. deGrom was even better than he was in his rookie year. Harvey showed no rust and has no setbacks in his first season back from Tommy John surgery. The Mets offense and his play in AA forced the Mets to call up Michael Conforto, who played well. Noah Syndergaard had an incredible rookie year. Jeurys Familia became a great closer.
Add that to Curtis Granderson having a great year and an amazing two months from Yoenis Cespedes, the Mets win 90 games and win the NL East. When the young pitching delivers in the postseason and Daniel Murphy becomes unhittable, you win a pennant. Man was that an unlikely pennant. Going into the year, you would’ve thought everything wouldn’t had to break right for the Mets to get to this point. It was quite the opposite.
Zack Wheeler‘s season was over before it began with him needing Tommy John surgery. David Wright missed most of the season with spinal stenosis. Murphy was in and out of the lineup in the first half with injuries. Michael Cuddyer wasn’t as good as they hoped, got hurt, and became an expensive bench player. Wilmer Flores struggled at shortstop creating a strange platoon with Ruben Tejada. Dilson Herrera couldn’t fill the gaps because he still wasn’t ready. Travis d’Arnaud had two long DL trips, and his replacements couldn’t hit. Juan Lagares took big steps back offensively and defensively. Lucas Duda had a streaky year with prolonged slumps. Oh, and their closer, Jenrry Mejia, had not one but two PED suspensions.
Really, this wasn’t some magical season. It was frustrating for most of the year. It was magical from August on. If not fit the Nationals ineptitude, the Mets should’ve been dead and buried. The Mets should’ve been looking to build off of a strong 2015 season. The Mets still have prospects a year or two away. The year was really supposed to be 2017. That was the year the Mets pitching would’ve been firmly established with the Mets having quality players at every position across the diamond.
No, they’re way ahead of schedule. They’re ready to let Murphy walk after he’s been a solid player for many years, let alone that postseason. There’s no room for Cespedes. The Mets are again talking about not being able to expand payroll. It’s creating an air of frustration amongst the fan base. It’s strange considering what happened in 2015.
What’s also strange is a poor NL East is seemingly getting worse. The NL East may very well be there for the taking WITHOUT the Mets signing even one player. In actuality, not signing anyone could arguably be a prudent move for the future of the team.
Do you really want to block 2B with a large contract when Herrera is a potential All Star. Do you grossly overpay for a bad shortstop when the Mets have not one but two big prospects at that position who are not far away? Why are you getting a terrible centerfielder when Brandon Nimmo is so close.
Do you block the path for some potential All Stars for aging players who MAY help you one year and be an albatross when the prospects are ready? How do you not build upon a team that went to the World Series last year? Can you reasonably ask a fan base to wait another year after all the losing? How do you explain last year might’ve been a fluke?
That’s the Mets real problem. They’re trying to juggle the present and the future. The front office is going to have to earn their money this offseason.
MLB Trade Rumors updated where the Mets are this offseason. Unsurprisingly, the prognosis isn’t good. Despite the overtures that increased attendance will mean increased payroll, it appears the Mets won’t make good on that promise.
In the post, it discussed how the Msts appear unwilling to make the type of contract it would take to sign the following players:
The Mets just came off of an NL Pennant. There’s more money. There are holes in this roster. Instead of filling the holes, the Mets are creating new ones. It’s making an already frustrating offseason even more so.
If the Mets choose not to spend any money on these players, who are they going to pursue? Jason Heyward? Not likely. Instead the Mets will turn to the likes of Dilson Herrera, Matt Reynolds, and whatever other cheap players they could acquire. This is what the Mets seem to believe is the appropriate course.
By not negotiating with Murphy inseason, the Mets have put themselves in the predicament of having to overpay for a player. They didn’t mind it last year with Michael Cuddyer. However, now it’s a problem with Murphy and Tejada. It’s a problem with two players that helped bring you to the postseason and the World Series. I’m still perplexed this team isn’t going to spend to try to bring this team right back to the World Series.
I guess that just means all Mets fans are Charlie Brown and the Mets are like Lucy. They give us hope and taking it away laughing. We’re just flat on our backs looking like idiots.
With Adam Rubin’s latest report, I have newfound faith the Mets can re-sign Daniel Murphy. I had began the process of letting him go, even if I was still holding out hope.
The news that the Mets will at least make a competitive offer perked me up a bit. I began to think if there’s anyone who would turn down more money, it’s Murphy. I think it even if it’s not true. I need Red to come over here and snap me out of it. I wish he’d come and say something along the lines of:
You shouldn’t be doing this to yourself. This is just some pipe dream. Murphy’s value is way up here and the Mets budget is way down there . . . and that’s the way it is.
However, the closest thing I have is Marc Carig. He’s a very good reporter, but he’s no Red:
Re: Murphy, his chances of returning to the Mets still appear quite slim unless he's ready to leave a boatload of money on the table.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 19, 2015
Also, keep in mind that Murphy made it clear he's talk in season about an extension, and the Mets did not take him up on that offer.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) November 19, 2015
However, I go back to thinking about Shawshank. I think of all the garbage Murphy went through in his time with the Mets. The moving him around the field. The focus on what he didn’t do well rather than all the positive attributes he brought to the table. In the end, Murphy went through all of that, and he came out clean on the other side. From also ran to the 2015 NLCS MVP.
All season long, I was never quite sure what that Italian man was singing about during the seventh inning stretch. I don’t want to know as somethings are best left unsaid. I’d like to think they were singing about something so beautiful like Murphy’s swing. The balls off his bat soaring higher and farther than anyone in Citi Field dares to dream. It’s like each ball hit brought you closer to a World Series. In those brief moments, you believed.
Ultimately, I still think he leaves. I think he goes on to better and brighter things to a team that wants and respects him more. It makes me sad. I’ll have to remind myself he deserves better. He deserves the money he’ll receive on the free agent market. Still, Citi Field and the Mets won’t be as entertaining when he’s gone.
All I have is hope right now that he’ll stay. Hope that we will both be at Citi Field on Opening Day wearing our Mets caps. That’s the funny thing about hope:
Remember Red, hope is a good thing, maybe the best if things, and no good thing ever dies.
The Mets have a lot of needs this offseason. The only thing everyone seems to know is the Mets aren’t going to spend money or re-sign their third place hitter, Daniel Murphy, or their clean-up hitter, Yoenis Cespedes.
Here’s the thing. The only free agent who has signed a deal was Rich Hill. The only major trade was the Andrelton Simmons deal, and we know Simmoms wasn’t going to be traded to the Mets. With all the rumors flying around, one thing is for certain. Nothing has been decided yet.
It’s an important offseason for the Mets. They were just in the World Series. If they want to return and/or win there’s work to do. The Mets also have to make good on some promises. They always said if fans came to the ballpark, they would have money to spend on payroll. Well, the Mets had a 19.5% increase in attendance. SNY ratings are up 60%. The Mets are increasing ticket prices. There should be more money to spend. In fact, there is. There’s about $45 – $60 million extra revenue from 2015.
No, that’s not what we’re hearing. We’re hearing free agents are costing too much. We’re reminded small market teams outspend them. The reason might be because the Wilpons and their entities have significant debt payments due. There’s supposedly more than $29 million due. If the Mets don’t do anything, that will be the story and deservedly so.
Personally, I don’t think there is much out in the free agent market. I advocated letting Cespedes walk. However, there are realistic avenues to spend money. They can bring back Murphy. They can create a dominant bullpen. They could also start trying to extend their starting pitchers. There’s room to spend money.
I’m frustrated with the Mets right now because they’ve done nothing, but then again, there’s been very little movement in the offseason. It’s also frustrating not being able to vent about what most Mets fans feel is inevitable. We all assume the Mets won’t spend, but we can’t exactly call them out on something that hasn’t happened yet because the possibility remains they might.
All in all, it all just creates a very irritating and frustrating offseason. By the way, the offseason has only been a little over two weeks old. There’s the definite possibility it’s going to get worse.
Before starting this post, I feel the need to re-state how much: (1) Daniel Murphy is one of my favorite all time Mets; (2) I think the Mets are better off re-signing him; and (3) I’ve defended him against unfair and untrue statements. If you don’t believe me, I’ve taught my son he’s the Mets second baseman.
However, with Murphy now all but gone, I wonder if the Mets made the right decision keeping him over Justin Turner. To be fair, it wasn’t an either/or decision back in 2012 when the Mets non-tendered him. Furthermore, the Mets decided they would rather have Murphy as their everyday second baseman over Turner the prior year.
Now, Murphy and Turner are the same age. It appeared as if Murphy was the better everyday player while Turner was able to admirably be a utility player. There was no room for either at third with David Wright. Also, back then it appeared as if Ike Davis would be the first baseman for years to come. We knew it wasn’t the right move to get rid of Turner. However, the question really is, should Turner have been playing over Murphy?
In 2011, Turner and Murphy basically played everyday due to injuries and the ineffectiveness of other options (see Brad Emaus). In 117 games, Turner hit .260/.334/.356. In 109 games, Murphy hit .320/.362/.448. Based upon those numbers, of course Murphy should’ve been the player the Mets wanted at second base. So yes, the Mets made the right decision there.
In 2012 and 2013, the Mets had a chance to reassess. Murphy hit .291/.332/.403 and .286/.319/.415 respectively while playing every day. In part time duty. Turner would hit .269/.319/.392 and .280/.319/.385. Again, it appears the Mets made the right decision.
So why now is there a question? First, there is a service time issue. Murphy is now a free agent, who may well be priced out of the Mets market (if they were interested). Second, after waving the Mets, Turner has been better than Murphy.
In Turner’s two years in Los Angeles, he’s hit .340/.404/.493 and .294/.370/.491. His WAR has been 4.2 and 3.9. Conversely, Murphy has hit .289/.332/.493 and .281/.322/.449. His WAR has been 1.9 and 1.4 respectively. By either measure, Turner has been a better player. To make matters worse, Murphy is a free agent and Turner will not be one until 2017.
The lesson here isn’t that the Mets let the better player walk. The lesson here is that the Mets did a poor job with player analysis. That lead to them cutting Turner loose. The Mets could’ve used him in 2015 with all of the injuries. He could’ve been a viable Murphy alternative for 2016.
Instead, he’s in Los Angeles, and we don’t know where Murphy will play next year. If Murphy isn’t re-signed, it may very well be another example of how the Mets don’t scout well internally and/or value their own players enough.
The Mets better hope Murphy doesn’t make them look as bad as Turner has. I think Murphy will.
I’m still holding out hope the Mets willer-sign Daniel Murphy. In the unfortunately likely event Murphy leaves the Mets, Wilmer Flores is ready to take his place.
When Murphy was first called up he was placed in LF and played there until he showed he couldn’t. Being blocked at the positions he plays better, he learned how to play shortstop. Ironically, it was Murphy’s presence at second that lead the Mets to try Flores at shortstop.
Murphy played second and Flores plays short because the organization believed in their bats. Unfortunately, neither player plays very well in their new middle infield positions. As a result, the Mets moved them off the position for stretches of time whenever they could. A big part of the reason is both players had early on problems turning the double play. For Murphy, it was first and third. For Flores, it was second. As a result, the two players have become versatile even if their real value to the Mets is their weakest defensive position.
Because they are forced to play out of position, the Mets have seemingly been constantly trying to find an upgrade over them. Much like Murphy at second, the Mets have been unsuccessful in finding a better long term shortstop option for Flores. Additionally, both players have been rumored to be moved by the Mets. Somewhat surprisingly, Flores was closer to getting traded than Murphy ever was.
Finally, both are fan favorites. For Murphy, it started with his heroicsin 2008, and it continued with his hard work and play ever since. For Flores, it was him crying on the field after he thought he was traded. These two fan favorites were the double play combination for a pennant winning Mets team.
Sadly, the main difference between these two players isn’t Murphy batting lefty and Flores batting righty, it may be the team they play on in 2016. I still think it’s in the Mets best interest to keep them both in 2016, but I don’t work for the front office. If Murphy has truly been pushed out the door, Flores has some mighty big shoes to fill.
If he matches Murphy’s hard work and dedication, he will. I believe Flores can and will.
With the Mets most likely losing Daniel Murphy in free agency, there is a hole at second base. The Mets seem comfortable with Dilson Herrera in his place. With that said, Herrera is 21 and may need some more time before being able to take over the position full time.
The problem is the second base free agent market is devoid of stopgap options. When that is the case, you can either stick with what you have, or you could look to trade for a stopgap option. Right now, the Cincinnati Reds are conducting a fire sale and have Brandon Phillips. Would Phillips be worth pursuing?
For his career, Phillips has hit .273/.320/.421. Last year, Phillips hit .294/.328/.395. Now, most of these stats come from his hitting at the Great American Ballpark, which is a hitter’s park. His career OPS+ is 96. Last year, it was at 97. Basically, Phillips is around a league average hitter who shows he’s not in decline offensively despite being 34 years old.
He has an average UZR of 5.8, which makes him an above average second baseman. Like his offense, Phillips has shown that he’s not declining defensively. In the last five years, his respective UZRs have been 11.1, 8.7, 8.6, 8.1, and 2.0. Last year was a drop defensively, but he’s also the best defensive option.
There are two hurdles to him becoming a Met. The first is you need to trade for him (I don’t try to guess what’ll take). The next is his contract. He still has two years and $27 million left on his deal. That’s a lot for a team with limited resources, but still less than what the free agent second baseman are commanding. If the Mets want to add a second baseman, Phillips might be the cheapest option.
Phillips might be the best second option the Mets have right now.
The two most versatile infield options are Ben Zobrist and Daniel Murphy. The Mets are rumored to be interested in Zobrist despite his declining production and his age. What’s surprising is the Mets aren’t even remotely linked to Howie Kendrick.
Like the other two players, Howie Kendrick is a former All Star second baseman. While he doesn’t have their versatility, he has played some outfield and firstbase. Unlike Murphy and Zobrist, he bats right handed. He’s expected to receive a similar contract to Murphy and Zobrist. He’s slated for a four year deal worth $52 million or $13 million per year. He also rejected a qualifying offer.
However, it is possible that Kendrick is the best secondbase option of the three players. Here’s how he compares to the other free agent second baseman:
Howie Kendrick
- 31 years old
- 10 year career
- Career .293/.333/.423
- 2015 .295/.336/.407
- UZR Average 3.13
- 2015 UZR -4.5
- Career WAR 28.6
- 2015 WAR 1.1
Daniel Murphy
- 30 years old
- 7 year career
- Career .288/.331/.424
- 2015 .281/.322/.449
- UZR Average -4.0
- 2015 UZR -1.3
- Career WAR 12.5
- 2015 WAR 1.4
Ben Zobrist
- 34 years old
- 10 year career
- Career .265/.355/.431 hitter
- 2015 .276/.359/.450
- UZR Average 3.3
- 2015 UZR -6.7
- Caree WAR 38.5
- 2015 WAR 1.2
From all of this, we can glean that Zobrist has had the best career, but he’s also the oldest. Murphy’s only real edge is that he’s done it in New York, which is a market where we’ve seen many good players faulter.
Like Murphy, Kendrick is in the prime of his career. Like Zobrist, Kendrick has shown himself to traditionally be a good second baseman. In 2014, his UZR was 6.7, and he hit .294/.347/.397. If that’s the player the Mets would be getting, he would clearly be the best option. However, after last year, you don’t know if Kendrick can still be that player.
There’s a case to be made for all three. Kendrick would be an interesting addition considering the Mets point go defense as a big reason why they lost the World Series. Unfortunately, it seems the Mets are only interested in Zobrist.
After we found out Daniel Murphy rejected the qualifying offer, there were many people saying good bye to Murphy. Others celebrated his departure. These were all premeditated even if Murphy’s return is unlikely:
For those wondering, was told contract extension talks with Murphy never became serious. Again, all signs point to him going elsewhere.
— Matt Ehalt (@MattEhalt) November 14, 2015
Yes, it’s likely Murphy leaves, but it’s not definitive. Murphy could still sign with the Mets. This is one of many misconceptions out there:
Mets Are Better Without Murphy
I really don’t understand this one. I’m well aware of his faults. He’s not a good baserunner. He’s not good defensively at second. He doesn’t walk a lot, and he doesn’t have a lot of power.
Well he is a second baseman, and he is one of the top hitters at that position. He hit .281/.322/.449 last year. Amongst second basemen:
- Batting average ranked ninth in the majors and fourth in the NL.
- OBP ranked twelfth in the majors and fifth in the NL. He was
- Slugging ranked fourth in the majors and first in the NL.
He had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. He’s making more and better contact. He’s clutch. Very clutch! Losing Murphy would be a big blow to the 2016 Mets, and that’s before you take into account if Dilson Herrera is ready or if David Wright can play everyday over 162 games.
The Money Can Be Better Allocated
This one is just wrong. With Murphy presumably gone, the Mets at least have issues to address in the middle infield. Some believe the Mets need another CF. Others want to get some more relievers. There’s also a group that wants to get an insurance option for Wright at third.
That’s a lot to add, especially for a team that only has about $18 million in their budget to resolve all of these problems. If you re-sign Murphy, you have at least address second base and the Wright insurance plan. With Murphy pegged to receive around $12 million annually, there is sufficient funds to add another reliever and/or a backup CF.
The only other free agent who can check these boxes is Ben Zobrist, who is a mistake signing waiting to happen. He’s 35 and in the midst of a three year decline. Last year, he was actually WORSE than Murphy defensively. I can’t believe the Mets will walk down this path again after signing a 35 year old Michael Cuddyer last year.
The Mets Have Better Internal Options
This is just ponderous. If you go the Wilmer Flores route, you’ve eliminated the Mets best possible shortstop option. Also, if you’re beating up Murphy for low OBP and the like, here’s Flores’ stats from last year: .263/.295/.408. He’s right handed and not even in the same league as Murphy as a hitter.
The other option is Dilson Herrera, who I think has a promising future. However, he’s still only 21. In limited major league duty over the past two years, he’s hit .215/.308/.383. Are we really confident he’s going to be handle the job next year? He will eventually, but this is a team that was just in the World Series. You should go with players who you know you can trust, not ones you hope can.
He’s a Net Negative
This is actually an oldie, but it is a good place for summation. Overall, for all of Murphy’s faults, he’s been a good guy that has performed well in New York. He was bounced all over the place, and he never complained. That’s important to have on any team, especially when it comes from a veteran.
More importantly, we should look at how he responded to the comment. He went on a homerun tear in the playoffs like we’ve never seen. Most people wilt under the bright lights of New York. He rose to the occasion.
Can you win a World Series with Murphy being the best player on your team? Probably not. However, as he showed this postseason, you’re probably not getting to the World Series without at least one Murphy in your team. Whoever signs Murphy is going to get a very good baseball player. A player who is versatile, hits well, and does not complain.
Until such a time as Murphy signs with another team, I’m not writing an obituary on his Mets career. I’m not saying good-bye yet. Instead, I’m holding out hope the Mets can push the misconceptions aside and re-sign Murphy.