Dan Warthen

Reasons Why Mets Should Consider A-Rod As Their New Manager

With the rumors the Mets will be looking for a manger to replace Terry Collins this offseason, the teams is likely going to focus on the obvious candidates. This includes Tim Teufel, Bob Geren, and Dick Scott. Each candidate have their own merits, but none of them are really a bold move the Mets may need to make this offseason to help turn their team around. In order to do that, the Mets may have to think outside the box.

To that end, maybe the Mets should consider hiring Alex Rodriguez to be their new manager this offseason. Many will be quick to dismiss the notion, but there are many reasons why A-Rod could be a worthwhile choice to succeed Collins:

#1 A-Rod Understands What Sandy Wants in His Manager

During an August 17, 2017 WFAN radio interview with Mike Francesca, A-Rod described the modern manager’s role as one of “a CEO of a public company.” The basis of this comparison is A-Rod believes the manager’s job is now to take the information provided by the front office and to find the best way to communicate that information to the players.

By reputation, Sandy Alderson does not want the old school manager who flies by the seat of his pants and controls everything in the dugout. He wants someone who goes out there and follows his instructions. Based upon the comments A-Rod has made, it would seem he has a fundamental understanding on what Alderson wants.

#2 A-Rod Has a Relationship with Kevin Long

While the Mets might be looking for a new manager, it seems the team may well want to keep both Dan Warthen and Kevin Long in place. If that is the Mets intention, they are going to need to find a manager who will work well with the retained coaches. That could be Geren based upon his tenure as the Mets bench coach. That could also be A-Rod, who worked well with Kevin Long during their mutual time together with the Yankees. More importantly, there is a mutual respect between the two, which would serve as a solid foundation for a new working relationship.

#3 A-Rod Works Well with Young Players

During his tenure with the Yankees, A-Rod has been given credit for serving as a mentor for young players like Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. Apparently, that was not just a special relationship he had with those players, but rather a willingness to serve as a mentor to young players. That is something that continued with the current crop of young Yankees. As Gary Sanchez said of A-Rod, “He’s always given us good advice. On and off the field, he’s always been there for us, he always has time for us. One thing he has told me is about creating a routine, a routine that I can use to prepare myself for every game.” (Newsday)

With A-Rod, you have an individual who has a willingness and an ability to effectively communicate with young players. Better yet, he’s able to show them how to best succeed at the Major League level. With so much of next year and the next decade hinging on young players like Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith, you need someone who is best able to get through to them and help them. That could be A-Rod.

#4 A-Rod Is Bilingual

If you pay attention to the post-game, you will see Melissa Rodriguez translating for Spanish speaking players like Yoenis Cespedes. That is all well and good for an interview, but that’s not good for the player-manager relationship. The two need to be able to communicate. A-Rod’s ability to speak English and Spanish permits him to effectively communicate with all of the players in his clubhouse.

#5 A-Rod Has Played for Great Managers

During A-Rod’s playing days, he has had the opportunity to play for Lou Piniella, Johnny Oates, Jerry Narron, Buck Showalter, Joe Torre, and Joe Girardi. That group of managers have won 10 Manager of the Year Awards, 28 division titles, 8 pennants, and 6 World Series.

Each of these mangagers were good to great in their own right, and each one of them had different managing styles. Certainly, each one of them left an impression on A-Rod as to what is the best way to manage a team and how to best communicate with your players. Like all first time managers, A-Rod will have to find his voice. He will be aided in doing so by his having played for some of the best managers of his generation.

#6 A-Rod Understands Decline

Throughout the 2016 season, A-Rod struggled to the point where the Yankees finally had to inform him that if he didn’t retire, the team was going to release him. At that point, A-Rod had to face reality and admit he was no longer the player he once was. That’s an avenue this current Mets team is going to have to navigate.

Both David Wright and Matt Harvey have dealt with a number of physical problems. With each day that passes, each of them is further and further away from being the players they once were. Having someone like A-Rod as the manager would provide both players with a sounding board to help them navigate the season both physically and mentally.

#7 A-Rod Understands the Media

A manager of a New York team is also a media personality. They have to be able to face the media multiple times a day and answer the tough questions. With his postseason struggles and his PED suspension, A-Rod has had to face the tough questions time and again. He’s weathered the storm, and he has come out the other side.

And now that he’s retired, A-Rod is a member of the media. He does studio shows for Fox earning rave reviews, and he has done a few games as a color commentator. With that, he’s become even more polished than he already was leaving him better able to face the media.

#8 A-Rod Creates Buzz

Look, after the 2017 season the Mets need to change the narrative. They’re an injury prone team who doesn’t go out there and spend money. This has led the fans to become either angry or apathetic. That’s not a good situation for a Major League organization, especially one that is raising ticket prices for next season.

At a minimum, hiring A-Rod would create a buzz. Love it or hate it, it would be a bold move for the organization, and bold moves typically generate excitement. That type of excitement can at times become infectious and energize an entire organization.

There’s also the fact the Mets will need to pursue a number of free agents. Possibly, A-Rod, a player who is still respected by many players across the majors, could be used as a recruiting tool. If true, that will create an even bigger buzz because better players mean more wins which will help turn those angry and apathetic fans into excited ones.

#9 A-Rod Loved the Mets

Back in the 2000 offseason, it was assumed A-Rod was going to be a Met because A-Rod grew up a Mets fan. Like the rest of us, A-Rod loved that 1986 Mets team, and he wanted to bring the Mets their next championship. He never did get that chance after Steve Phillips described A-Rod as a 24 and one player.

A-Rod has been able to accomplish much in his career, but the one thing he was never able to do was to wear a Mets uniform and deliver a World Series to his favorite team. It could be an opportunity that he couldn’t overlook, and it may be one that drives him.

#10 A-Rod Is Fireable

For all the calls from Mets fans to make Wright the Mets next manager, is the fact that one day the Mets will have to fire him. Managers are hired to one day be fired. No Mets fan wants to see their beloved Wright be fired by the team. No, you want a manager who could readily be fired. That’s A-Rod.

However, in order to be fired, you need to first be hired. There are certain impediments there from his lack of experience to whether he’d ever be interested in managing in the big leagues. If he is somehow interested, the Mets should definitely inquire because he just might be exactly what the Mets need in their next manager.

Editor’s Note: This was first published on MetsMerizedOnline

The 2017 Matt Harvey Mistake

Before yesterday’s game, Matt Harvey threw from the mound for the first time in what could have been the first step towards a rehab assignment.  In fact, after the session, Harvey said, “I’m on track to get back hopefully pretty soon.”  (Anthony DiComo, MLB.com).

Of course, Harvey is in this position because he was put on the disabled list with a stress injury to his right scapula.  While we cannot state anything with certainty, there is the distinct possibility the stress injury was the result of the muscles in Harvey’s shoulder being roughly half the size of the muscles in his left shoulder.  This could stem from the fact Harvey had surgery to alleviate the effects of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS), and he was unable to have his typical offseason workouts.

It should be pointed out that Harvey was not expected to be full strength in May.  As Pitching Coach Dan Warthen said, “History says with that surgery that it’s 10 months out.  That’s when you really start to feel strong. Generally when you open a season you gain two miles per hour. If he’s playing at 94, 95, it’s a completely different story.”  (Mike Puma, New York Post).

Harvey was a different pitcher to start the season.  He wasn’t just sitting at a lower velocity, but he was also unable to strike batters out.  He tired as the season progressed to the point where he wasn’t even hitting 90 MPH anymore.  It was at that point everyone had to face the truth – something was wrong.

However, that something wrong began in the offseason.  The Mets knew Harvey wasn’t going to be at full strength, and they put him in the Opening Day rotation anyway.  They did it because Steven Matz and Seth Lugo had injury issues.  He was put in the rotation because the Mets refused to add a veteran depth to the rotation to protect against a rotation with a number of injury issues heading into the season.   Frankly, Harvey was in the rotation because he pushed for it, and there was no one standing in his path telling him it was a bad idea.

There was no repeat of the 2015 Scott Boras controversy.  The Mets were unwilling to sit back and wait to do what was best for Harvey and really for the team.  Harvey being the competitor he is wasn’t willing to wait.

In the end, the Mets got 13 starts from Harvey, and he went 4-3 with a 5.25 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, and a 6.9 K/9.  That’s not Harvey.

Overall, the Mets pushed Harvey forward because they didn’t want to wait for him to be 100%.  Harvey pushed because he was a competitor.  In the end, it became a forgettable season for both parties.  Hopefully, they both learned from this season, and they will be smarter going forward.  However, based upon past history, it is unlikely to happen.

 

deGrominant Again

It seems like a Mets starter hasn’t recorded an out in the seventh inning since Noah Syndergaard pitched seven innings in the Wild Card Game. It hasn’t been quite that long. It was actually that long. It was “just” 18 games. 

It seemed tonight that streak just did not want to die. With a 1-1 count to Andrelton SimmonsJacob deGrom had a finger issue. He continued pitching, and he allowed a double. This led to Terry Collins coming out of the dugout with Ray Ramirez to check on deGrom, who stayed in the game. 

He then walked C.J. Cron and hit Martin Maldonado with a pitch to load the bases with no outs. As Dan Warthen visited the mound, Rob Darling was saying the Mets needed to pull him. Instead, the Mets stuck with deGrom. It was the right decision.  

deGrom fought back by striking out Danny Espinosa. Then, a Mets pitcher finally got some help from a Mets shortstop as Jose Reyes made a nifty catch. 

Entering tonight, Mets shortstops have posted a -9 DRS, the worst in the majors. It was about time they helped their starters.  A Cameron Maybin fly out, and deGrom escaped a bases loaded no put jam. 

It was the perfect cap to what was a terrific night by the man all fans overlook when naming an ace. This was a big start when the Mets needed it most. He pitched seven scoreless innings allowing just four hits and three walks with nine strikeouts. He would be the first Mets starter to get to three wins. 

As good as deGrom was going, former Marlin Ricky Nolasco was nearly as good. Still, the Mets got to him just enough times. 

In the first, it was a big two out RBI  ground rule double by the suddenly resurgent Curtis Granderson scoring Michael Conforto

Neil Walker started the next rally with a lead-off single to start the sixth. He smartly moved up when Wilmer Flores flew out to the warning track for the second out. Forgetting that Rene Rivera has suddenly become Gary Carter, the Angels intentionally walked Lucas Duda to face him. Rivera made them pay hitting an RBI single to extend his hitting streak to 10 games. 
The Mets capped off their scoring when Conforto hit an opposite field solo homer in the seventh to extend the lead to 3-0. This gave the Mets bullpen a comfortable lead to protect and just six outs to get. 

With two left-handed batters bracketing Mike TroutJerry Blevins started the eighth. This was Blevins’ 25th appearance making him the first Mets pitcher to made 25 appearances in the Mets first 40 games of the season. 

Blevins did his job recording two strikeouts around a Trout single. Collins then went to Paul Sewald for his first ever hold opportunity in the majors. He locked it down striking out Cron to end the inning. 

Addison Reed came on to close out the game recording his fifth save of the year. It was the type of 3-0 win you expected to see all year.  This was the first of its kind this year. With that said, if the Mets starters step up like deGrom did today, we could be seeing more of these again. 
Game Notes: T.J. Rivera snapped an 0-10 streak with a eighth inning pinch hit single. deGrom entered the game with the highest batting average in the Mets lineup. The win snapped the Mets seven game losing streak. 

Call Up Ricky Knapp

It’s apparent Rafael Montero doesn’t have it.  He has all the talent in the world.  Talent enough to lead the Mets to give him chance after chance after chance.  He’s squandered them all.  Last night was the latest example with him allowing five earned over 3.2 innings. The Mets cannot in good conscience let him make another start for this team.

Just like the Mets were forced to do last season, it is time to give someone else a chance.  Last year meant Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.  Gsellman thrived, and as a result, he made the Opening Day rotation.  Lugo was making a name for himself in the World Baseball Classic until a slight tear in his UCL was discovered.  Lugo’s absence has been really felt with the injuries to Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard.  With him and Matz still weeks away, the Mets need to figure out who should get a chance to pitch in the rotation.

As noted above, Montero has squandered that chance.  It is time to give someone else a shot.  Unfortunately, there are no stand outs right now in Triple-A meaning the Mets are going to have to take a chance on someone.  That pitcher should be Ricky Knapp.

Knapp is the son of former major league pitching coach Richard Knapp.  It should then come as no surprise that Knapp has repeatable and clean mechanics.  He’s also a four pitch pitcher that really doesn’t have one outstanding pitch.  Accordingly, Knapp is reliant upon location, mixing up his pitches, and pitching to contact in order to get batters out.  He has been largely successful in that because Knapp keeps the ball on the ground having a 1.46 ground out to fly out ratio.  As a result, Knapp has gone deep into games with him leading the Mets organization with three complete games last year.

As it so happens, Knapp is not the type of pitcher that typically thrives in Vegas.  That is quite evident in Knapp’s stats to start the season.  Through his first six starts, he is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.  This makes him yet another Mets pitching prospect who is struggling in Vegas.  Still, there are some signs of hope for him going forward.

Knapp is walking 2.1 batters per nine innings which is lower than his 2.3 BB/9 in his minor league career.  In his two road games, Knapp is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.  His opponents have a .328 BABIP this season which is higher than the .299 BABIP batters have against him in his minor league career or the .274 BABIP Double-A batters had against him.  With a normalized BABIP and with Knapp replicating his numbers on the road, there is a strong case that can be made Knapp could succeed at the major league level.

Overall, there are signs for hope for Knapp to be able to succeed with the Mets.  Those hopes should be elevated when you consider Knapp will have the opportunity to work with Dan Warthen.  At the very least, he can’t be worse than Montero.  For that reason alone, the Mets should give him a shot until Lugo or Matz are ready.

And To Think That I Saw It At Citi Field

* adapted from “And to Think That I Saw It on Mulberry Street” by Dr. Seuss

When I leave home to go to Citi Field,
Dad always says to me,
“John, keep your eyelids up
And see what you can see.”

But when I tell him where I’ve sat
And what happened each at-bat,
He looks at me and sternly says,
“You did not see all of that.

Stop telling such an outlandish story.
Juan Lagares cannot cover that much territory.”

Now, what can I say
About what I saw today?

All the long way to the game
And all the way back,
I’ve looked and I’ve looked
From the outfield to the bat rack,
But all that I’ve noticed,
Except the green infield,
Was d’arnaud and Matz
At Citi Field

That’s nothing to tell of,
That won’t do, I know . . .
Just the starting pitcher Steven Matz
Hurling pitches to Travis d’Arnaud.

That can’t be my story.  That’s only a start.
I’ll say that a GAZELLE was pitching instead of a Bart!
Add that is a story that no one can beat,
When I say that I saw it at Citi Field.

Yes, the Gazelle is fine,
He gives batters a migraine,
There’s another marvelous pitcher
Who’s stuff is much more insane.
The story could be so much more
If the pitcher I saw were Thor.
An orange and blue capped pitcher’s fastballs are profound,
Rumbling like thunder from the mound!

No, it won’t do at all . . .
There’s another with the ball.

Zack Wheeler is better;
He’s come back round,
And he’s ready to for a start
On the Citi Field mound

Hold on a minute!
There’s something wrong!
The bullpen is the place for this dealer
It’s off to the bullpen for Zack Wheeler,

It’d be much better, it might,
If the start went to the Dark Knight.

Hmmm . . . A Dark Knight . . .
Say – anyone could think of that,
Dick or Kevin or Dan or Pat
Say, even Terry could think of that.

But it isn’t too late to make one little change.
This story is about Yoenis Cespedes!  No longer on the driving range!

He’s got plenty of power and size,
You can see the opposing pitcher with fear in his eyes.
A then, the sound system emits a loud tone,
Cespedes the Lion King!  Perched high on a throne!

Say!  That makes a batter that no one can heel,
When I say that I saw it at Citi Field.

But now I don’t know . . .
It still doesn’t seem right.

A Cespedes swinging a bat that’s so light
Would hit balls around in the air like a kite.

But he’d look simply extreme
With a great New York Mets team!

A team that’s that good should have someone to see it,
Wins coming so fast, the Nationals finding it hard to keep near it.
Nationals always the trailer!  They’ll be out of their mind
Not even Daniel Murphy can get them out from behind.

But now is if fair?  Is it fair what I’ve done?
Before they take the field, they’ve already won.
That’s really too heavy a load for one beast;
I’ll give him some helpers.  He needs two, at least.

Michael Conforto to do the trick,
To guide them after the intentional walk schtick –
It takes a lineup to do the trick.
They’ll never lose now.  They’ll race at top speed
With Curtis Granderson, himself, in the lead.

The Manager is there
And he thinks it is grand,
And he raises his hat
As they rise from their seats in the stands.

The Manager is there
Sandy Alderson too,
All waving big banners
The stands are becoming a zoo.

And that is a team whose championship is sealed
When I say that I saw it at Citi Field!

With a roar of its motor an airplane appears
The pitcher steps off the mound and everyone jeers.

And that makes a story that’s really not bad!
But it still could be better.  Suppose that I add . . . . . . . . .

. . . A David Wright
Who can stay upright . . .

A big Duda
Swinging sticks . . .

A Jacob deGrom
And his garden gnome . . .

No time for more,
Cespedes’ coming home.

He swung ’round third base
And dashed towards the plate,
The Mets ran up the steps
And I felt simply GREAT!

FOR I HAD A STORY THAT NO ONE COULD YIELD!
AND TO THINK THAT I SAW IT AT CITI FIELD!

But Dad said quite calmly,
“Take the parking pass off the windshield
And tell me the sights
That you saw at Citi Field”

There was so much to tell, I JUST COULDN’T BEGIN!
Dad looked at me sharply stroking the beard at his chin.
He frowned at me sternly from there from the front seat,
“Was there nothing to look at . . . no great feat?
Did nothing excite you or make you jump out of your seat?”

“Nothing,” I said, now becoming more even-keeled,
“But a Matz pitching to d’Aranud at Citi Field.”

The End.

Last year’s story “One Strike, Two Strikes, Three Strikes, You’re Out!” can be found here

Happy Birthday Dr. Seuss!

 

Maybe The Mets Should Re-Sign Niese

At some point today, Jon Niese is going to hold a workout for teams interested in signing him.  Niese needs to do this workout because: (1) he’s coming off knee surgery; and (2) he was terrible last year.  Absolutely terrible.  And yet, despite that, the Mets should be interested in re-signing him.

Let’s get the obvious reasons why the Mets shouldn’t be interested out of the way first.  He’s a malcontent that would likely complain about the weather in San Diego.  He always has an excuse for when he fails.  He’d blame the pitch the catcher for the pitch he called.  He’d blame the designer of the ballpark for the configuration of the outfield walls.  He’d blame God for the wind patterns.  He’d do all of that before admitting he hung a pitch that was hit into the second deck.  More than any of this, Niese was just horrible last year.  Typically, you don’t want players like this.

That is unless they are really cheap, and they have something to prove.

Niese should be both.  Working in reverse, Niese, perhaps for the first time in his major league career, has something to prove.  He’s coming off a year with a 5.50 ERA and a 1.587 WHIP.  Quite possibly, he was the worst pitcher in all of baseball, certainly the worst starting pitcher.  Because Niese is who he is, he’ll probably give you a million reasons why this happened.  I’m sure he’ll say PNC Park was not suited for him, or Ray Searage was not as good a pitching coach as Dan Warthen.  The Pirates probably didn’t shift as well as the Mets did.  He’ll certainly blame his knee injury.  At least with the knee injury, there may be an actual valid excuse, and it could be reason to buy low on Niese.

Before being traded to the Pirates, Niese was 61-61 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.361 WHIP, and a 95 ERA+.  Basically, he was a fifth starter who constantly tricked the Mets into thinking he could be more than that.  It’s partially why Sandy Alderson gave him a contract extension.  It’s why the Pirates traded Neil Walker to get him.  Maybe he fulfills that promise one day.  Likely, he doesn’t.  Still, Niese has already shown he’s a quality major league pitcher.

He’s a major league pitcher that is going to come cheap.  With teams seemingly being devoid of interest in him during the offseason, Niese is likely going to garner little more than a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training.  Essentially, Niese is going to go to a team where he has an opportunity to either make the team out of Spring Training or be one of the first call-ups should a pitcher get injured or be ineffective.  That being said,  signing Niese is theoretically no different than the Mets recent signing of Tom Gorzelanny, or back in 2006, when they signed Darren Oliver.

For the Mets, Niese could be an intriguing bullpen arm who surprisingly showed during the 2015 postseason, he can get the big out.  He may have a second act to his career as a reliever much in the same way Oliver Perez has.  By focusing on one or two pitches, he could be a reliable bullpen arm like Oliver.  Or maybe, he could just be more starting pitching depth for a Mets team relying on three pitchers coming off season ending surgery and two unproven starters behind them.

Maybe just maybe, the Mets should offer Niese a minor league deal to come back to the team.  It isn’t the worst idea in the world.

Tom Gorzelanny Was A Perfect Minor League Signing

If you look at the initial reactions to the Tom Gorzelanny signing, it was met with some anger and derision from Mets fans. It has led to a meme where Mets fans have begun to compare him to sloth from the Goonies:

https://twitter.com/barbitosfritos/status/827570412867428352

Obviously, this anger comes from Mets fans wanting the team to do more to sign free agent relievers to fill the obvious holes in the Mets bullpen. Namely, Mets fans wanted the team to go out and sign Jerry Blevins, who for some strange reason remains on the free agent market. Because the Mets signed Gorzelanny and not Blevins, Mets fans have understandably overreacted. They shouldn’t.

Because this is a minor league deal, the Mets are not obligated to carry Gorzelanny on the Opening Day roster like they were Antonio Bastardo last season. Essentially, if Gorzelanny does not show the Mets he is not capable of being a part of their bullpen, they can leave him in the minor leagues as depth.

Now, if Gorzelanny does show he can be a solid contributor out of the bullpen, the Mets only owe him $1 million with incentives that could increase his salary to $2.8 million. Essentially, this is a low risk, potentially high reward signing.

And there is reason to believe Gorzelanny can be a solid contributor in 2017. For his career, he has limited left-handed batters to a .229/.302/.356 batting line. For the sake of comparison, Blevins allowed left-handed batters to hit .255/.313/.324 off of him last year. Now, Blevins has historically been better than that against left-handed batters. However, the Mets are looking to replace Blevins’ 2016 production, and judging from Gorzelanny’s career splits, he is more than capable of that.

Another reason to believe in Gorzelanny is his repertoire. He primarily relies upon a low 90s sinker and a low 80s slider. While he also can throw a change-up and a curveball, while he has gotten older he has more and more relied on his sinker and slider. As we have seen with pitchers like Addison Reed and Fernando Salas, Dan Warthen has been successful working with them to get better results with those pitches as they have had in prior stops. It also doesn’t hurt that Travis d’Arnaud and Rene Rivera are excellent pitch framers that will be able to help Gorzelanny get into pitcher’s counts and get him that borderline called third strike.

Also, consider some of the success he has had against some of the left-handed batters he is sure to see during the 2017 season:

At the end of the day, Gorzelanny may very well be considered a solid minor league free agent signing in the same ilk as Darren Oliver or Tim Byrdak.

On the other hand, it might not work out. But if it doesn’t, so what? It’s a classic example of nothing ventured, nothing gained. The million Gorzelanny is potentially earning should not stand in the way of the Mets re-signing Blevins and/or signing another free agent reliever.

And in fact, it didn’t. Not too long after the Mets signed Gorzelanny, the Mets then re-signed both Fernando Salas and Blevins. 

Still, Gorzelanny wasn’t the guy Mets fans wanted, but he could become the guy the Mets fans want on the mound against a left-handed batter this October.

Mets May Have Enough Internal Bullpen Options

With Baseball America‘s Adam Rubin reporting the Mets are considering using low A starter P.J. Conlon out of the bullpen, the Mets are really giving the impression that they may not sign any relief pitchers this offseason. This would coincide with earlier reports the Mets may not have the budget to acquire another player unless the team is able to trade an outfielder, namely Jay Bruce. When considering the difficulties the Mets have in trading Bruce, it’s becoming increasingly more likely the Mets will use internal options to build their bullpen.

The Mets should have varying degrees of confidence in returning relief pitchers Jeurys Familia, Addison Reed, and Hansel Robles. Last season, Reed and Familia combined to be the best 8-9 combination in baseball. Robles has shown versatility whether it was his bailing Jim Henderson out of a bases loaded no out jam or pitching 3.2 innings because Bartolo Colon left a game in the first inning with an injury.

While the Mets should have confidence in these three pitchers, they still need at least four other arms to complete their bullpen. Here are the leading options:

RIGHT-HANDED RELIEVERS

RHP Seth Lugo – While he should get the opportunity to compete with Robert Gsellman for a spot in the rotation, indications are Lugo will land in the bullpen. In limited bullpen duty last year, Lugo was terrific. In his nine relief appearances, he had a 2.65 ERA, 0.941 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. Pitching out of the bullpen should also permit Lugo to ramp his fastball up to 95 MPH and throw his curveball, which has the best spin rate in the majors, making him an even more dominant pitcher.

RHP Zack Wheeler – Like Lugo, Wheeler may get an opportunity to pitch in the rotation, but early indications are he will start the year in the bullpen. Wheeler’s fastball-slider combination should play well out of the bullpen, and it should lead to him recording a high number of strikeouts. Conversely, he may have a high amount of walks as well. Unfortunately, Wheeler may not be able to sustain the same workload of a relief pitcher as the Mets will likely want to ease him back after Wheeler missed two years due to Tommy John surgery.

RHP Paul Sewald – With a high 80s to low 90s fastball with a slider in the low 90s with a low 80s slider, Sewald doesn’t have the dominating stuff you would typically look for in a major league reliever. However, despite having “lesser” stuff, Sewald has succeeded at every level of the minor leagues including his being an effective closer for the 51s last year. Despite pitching in an extreme hitter’s league, Sewald had 10 saves with a 1.85 ERA, 0.945 WHIP, and an 11.8 K/9 in the second half of the season.

RHP Erik Goeddel – If Goeddel can return to his 2014 – 2015 form, the Mets have a reliever they can rely upon. During that time, he was on the New York – Las Vegas shuttle making 41 major league appearances. Over that stretch, he had a 2.48 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, and a 9.0 K/9. For many, it was believed Goeddel did it with smoke and mirrors, an impression that was given credence with his 4.54 ERA and 1.318 WHIP in 2016. With Goeddel able to strike out 9.1 batters per nine last year, he has at least shown he can get batters out, and as a result, should get another chance. His success in 2017 is going to depend on his ability to regain some of his fastball velocity or his ability to adapt to pitching without it.

RHP Chase Bradford – Like Sewald, Bradford has fringy stuff with a low 90s fastball and a low to mid 80s slider. However, unlike Sewald, Bradford has struggled in AAA. Over the past three years, Bradford has pitched to a 4.88 ERA, 1.454 WHIP, and a 7.2 K/9. It should be noted many pitchers, like Lugo, struggle in Las Vegas, only to have success in the majors.

RHP Ben Rowen – The submarine style Rowen was brought in on a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training. The hope is that Rowen can be a modern version of Chad Bradford in what was an excellent 2006 Mets bullpen. However, given his low 80s fastball, and with both right-handed batters and left-handed batters hitting him hard in his brief 12 major league appearances, this seems more hope than reality.

RHP Rafael Montero – Despite being terrible for the Mets, he somehow remains a part of the Mets organization. As if his presence on the roster wasn’t baffling enough, Sandy Alderson even mentioned him as a possibility for the bullpen. (ESPN). It figures that this year is the year push comes to shove with Montero. Either he is finally going to trust his stuff and throw strikes at the major league level, or the Mets are going to designate him for assignment for someone who can.

RHP Gabriel Ynoa – Ynoa struggled with the Mets last year, but those struggles could have been the result of him being asked to pitch out of the bullpen when he’s never done that before and the team shifting him between the bullpen and rotation late in the year. Fact is Ynoa has real talent. He has a low to mid 90s fastball that he may be able to consistently get in the mid 90s if he was airing it out in the bullpen. His slider is also effective in generating a number of groundballs. With him in the bullpen as opposed to the rotation, he can primarily utilize his two best pitches to get batters out.

LEFT-HANDED RELIEVERS

LHP Josh Smoker – There are three things we learned about Smoker last year: (1) he strikes out a lot of batters; (2) left-handed batters absolutely crush him; and (3) he is not effective for more than one inning. Now, if Smoker is able to work with Dan Warthen to develop a slider to get help him get left-handed batters out, he’s got closer potential. If not, he’s still an effective arm out of the bullpen so long as Terry Collins acknowledges his limitations.

LHP Josh Edgin – Even with his reduced velocity, Edgin still showed the ability to get left-handed batters out. Until such time he re-gains his velocity, if it ever were to happen, he should primarily be used as a LOOGY. Now, with Familia, Reed, and Robles each being extremely effective against left-handed batters, the Mets are not in dire need of a LOOGY. Still, in a division with Freddie Freeman, Daniel Murphy, and Bryce Harper the Mets could benefit from having more than one pitcher who can get left-handed batters out.

LHP Sean Gilmartin – In 2015, Gilmartin was an important part of the Mets bullpen as the team’s long man. That season, he made 50 appearance pitching 57.1 innings going 3-2 with a 2.67 ERA, 1.186 WHIP, and an 8.5 K/9. Surprisingly, Gilmartin had reverse splits allowing a .216 batting average to right-handed batters and a .260 batting average to left-handed batters. Last, year, Gilmartin began the year in Las Vegas as a starting pitcher. Due to some bullpen issues at the major league level, the Mets had him fly on a red eye and pitch on short rest. Eventually, he would suffer a minor shoulder injury, and his promising season would tail off. Ultimately, the Mets will need a long man in 2017, and there is enough evidence here to suggest Gilmartin can competently fill that roll.

LHP David Roseboom – It’s not common for pitchers to go from AA to the Opening Day roster the next year, but Roseboom may just be capable of doing it. While a closer by trade, who is coming off a season with a 1.87 ERA, he is extremely effective against left-handed batters. Last season, he limited left-handed batters to a .141 batting average. Primarily, Roseboom is a sinker/slider pitcher who also has a change that allows him to remain effective against right-handed batters. While Roseboom primarily sits in the high 80s to the low 90s, he remains effective because he is able to effectively locate his pitches, and he induces a high rate of ground balls.

LHP P.J. Conlon – As touched on above, considering Conlon for the Opening Day roster was a surprise given he has not pitched in AA, he consistently throws in the mid to high 80s, and he was used as a starter last season. Another reason this was a surprise is the Conlon is better against right-handed batters than left-handed batters. The main reason for that is while Conlon is a four pitch pitcher, his out pitch is his change-up. Like with most left-handed pitchers, Conlon’s change-up is more effective against right-handed batters than left. Overall, it is highly unlikely he will make the Opening Day roster, but he should still benefit from the opportunity to further develop his slider.

PREDICTION

Barring unforeseen circumstances, Wheeler seems assured of being in the Opening Day bullpen with Familia, Reed, and Robles. Considering the Mets probably want to add another left-handed pitcher in the bullpen, and the fact that he is out of options, Edgin seems to be the next best guess as to a pitcher who will make the r0ster. Based upon their performance in the bullpen last year, it is likely the next two spots go to Lugo and Smoker. Right there, the Mets have a seven man bullpen with an interesting array of arms that can both register strike outs and induce ground balls to try to get a double play to get out of the inning.

If there is an injury, suspension, or someone proves to be ineffective, the Mets have interesting options behind this group in Rowen, Sewald, and Roseboom. There is also Gilmartin and Ynoa who can provide either a spot start or be able to serve in the bullpen if needed.

Ultimately, while you would feel much better with the Mets having at least one more veteran arm in the bullpen like a Jerry Blevins or a Fernando Salas, there is at least enough quality arms in the Mets system that can conceivably build a good bullpen.

 

Mets May Get Lucky With the Reliever Market

First and foremost, it should be noted the Mets unwillingness or inability to sign one or more players before trading away an outfielder, namely Jay Bruce, is aggravating.  Despite the Mets attendance growing and the team’s revenues increasing, the Mets still do not have a payroll commensurate with either their position as a potential playoff team or their stature as a big market team in the biggest market in the world.  It is unfathomable the Mets still cannot have more than a league average payroll.  As a result, we have seen players who could help the Mets sign with other teams.

Fortunately, there are plenty of options still available on the free agent market.  At least conceptually, this means there are more relievers than there are teams in need of them.  Ideally, this means the price for these players should be suppressed.  This goes doubly so with pitchers and catchers reporting in less than one month (February 13th).  In sum, this means the Mets may be able to add one or more of the following on a team friendly deal:

LEFT-HANDED RELIEVERS

Jerry Blevins

2016 Stats: 4-2, 2.79 ERA, 73 G, 2 SV, 42.0 IP, 1.214 WHIP, 11.1 K/9

Heading into free agency, it was assumed Blevins was as good as gone as he wanted a multi-year deal worth approximately $6 million per season.  With teams looking elsewhere in free agency, Blevins remains on the market.  Worse yet, it does not appear that many teams are interested in Blevins services.  That is odd considering he had a career best year pitching to right-handed batters, and for his career, he has limited left-handed batters to a .214/.266/.322 batting line.  In the end, this could spell the Mets being able to re-sign him to a one-year deal at a modest raise over his $4 million 2016 salary.

Chris Capuano

2016 Stats: 1-1, 4.13 ERA, 16 G, 24.0 IP, 1.583 WHIP, 10.1 K/9

Back in 2011, Capuano came to the Mets looking for a place to rejuvenate his career, and under the tutelage of Dan Warthen, he largely succeeded.  Now, the 38 year old finds himself with another elbow injury that limited him to 16 games in 2016.  He also finds himself in need of an opportunity.  He could be worth a flyer as a LOOGY with left-handed batters slashing .244/.302/.360 against him in his career and .212/.297/.333 in 2016.

J.P Howell

2016 Stats: 1-1, 4.09 ERA, 64 G, 50.2 IP, 1.401 WHIP, 7.8 K/9

Howell has been effective against left-handed batters in his career limiting them to a .229/.306/.317 batting line.  From 2013 – 2015, he was an extremely effective reliever posting a 1.97 ERA over that time span.  However, last year was a struggle for him due largely to left-handed batters hitting him much better.  In 2016, left-handed batters hit .302/.343/.417 off of him.  The question is whether this is the start of a downward trend or just a one season blip for him.

Boone Logan

2016 Stats: 2-5, 3.69 ERA, 60 G, SV, 46.1 IP, 1.014 WHIP, 11.1 K/9

In some respects, it is astounding there is not more interest in Logan with him coming off an effective season while pitching half of his games in Coors Field.  The main reason could be his .225 BABIP against which is well below his career .326 number.  Still, he dominated left-handed batters limiting them to a .142/.222/.255 batting line.  Overall in his career, he has limited left-handed batters to a less impressive .233/.308/.361 batting line.

Travis Wood

2016 Stats: 4-0, 2.95 ERA, 77 G, 61.0 IP, 1.131 WHIP, 6.9 K/9

In the last two years for the Cubs, Wood has transitioned to the bullpen for the Cubs.  If judging by ERA+, Wood is coming off the best season of his seven year career.  In his career, he has been extremely effective getting left-handed batters out limiting them to a .206/.276/.316 batting line.  He was even better in 2016 limiting them to a .128/.208/.239 batting line.  In addition to his pitching, we have also seen him handle left field.

RIGHT-HANDED RELIEVERS

Fernando Salas

2016 Stats: 3-7, 3.91 ERA, 75 G, 6 SV, 73.2 IP, 1.113 WHIP, 7.8 K/9

For the past few years with the Angels, Salas was on a downward trend.  However, when he joined the Mets, Salas was seemingly rejuvenated.  Whether it was being in the Wild Card hunt or pitching to much better pitch framers, the results were dramatically different for Salas.  In his 17 games for the Mets, he had a 2.08 ERA, 0.635 WHIP, and a 9.9 K/9.  While it is unrealistic to expect him to put up those numbers, it is reasonable to believe he could perform well for the Mets next season.

Joe Blanton

2016 Stats: 7-2, 2.48 ERA, 75 G, 80.0 IP, 1.013 WHIP, 9.0 K/9

After sitting out the 2014 season, Blanton has come back to the majors as a very good relief pitcher.  According to Brooks Baseball, over the past two seasons, Blanton has predominantly become a fastball/slider pitcher who strikes out a batter per inning.  Generally speaking, Blanton has also shown the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark.  While Blanton is not a closer, he has shown the ability to be an extremely effective late inning set-up man.

Neftali Feliz

2016 Stats: 4-2, 3.52 ERA, 62 G, 2 SV, 53.2 IP, 1.137 WHIP, 10.2 K/9

Feliz began his career as a dominant closer.  However, he began to make multiple trips to the disabled list, and in 2015, it all caught up to him as he struggled throughout the season.  Last year, he began pitching much better in Pittsburgh.  Still, he struggled in the second half, and again he needed to be shut down over the final month of the season due to arm problems.

Luke Hochevar

2016 Stats: 2-3, 3.86 ERA, 40 G, 37.1 IP, 1.071 WHIP, 9.6 K/9

Like Matt Harvey, Hochevar needed seasons ending surgery to alleviate the effect of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome.  Unlike Harvey, Hochevar will not be ready for Opening Day.  As we saw in 2013, when healthy, Hochevar is capable of being a dominant reliever.  However, between his Tommy John surgery in 2014 and his most recent surgery, it is debatable whether he can be that pitcher again.

Greg Holland

2015 Stats: 3-2, 3.83 ERA, 48 G, 32 SV, 44.2 IP, 1.455 WHIP, 9.9 K/9

Judging from the rather ordinary 2015 stats, you knew something was wrong with Holland.  From 2011 – 2014, he was 15-9 with a 1.86 ERA, 1.026 WHIP, and a 12.6 K/9.  During this stretch, he averaged 62 appearances, 64.0 innings, and 28 saves.  Holland would need Tommy John surgery robbing him of the remainder of the 2015 and the entirety of the 2016 season.  At this point, Holland is seeking a two year deal worth $11 million per season with an opt out after the first year.  If he returns to form, he may look like a bargain.  If he doesn’t, the contract will be a burden.

Seth Maness

2016 Stats: 2-2, 3.41 ERA, 29 G, 31.2 IP, 1.326 WHIP, 4.5 K/9

Maness’ 2016 season was abbreviated because it was thought he was going to need Tommy John surgery.  Except Maness did not get the surgery.  Rather, Maness opted for a sugery dubbed “primary repair” which seeks not to reconstruct the ligament, but to repair and stabilize it.  He is the first major league pitcher to ever elect this surgery over Tommy John meaning we do not know how successful this will be.  Maness’ 2017 season is going to be an extremely interesting, if not important, one.  If he is truly able to pitch with this surgery, and pitch as well as he has in his career, the Mets may have not only found a quality reliever, but the whole baseball industry may be in the beginnings of a revolution.

Sergio Romo

2016 Stats: 1-0, 2.64 ERA, 40 G, 4 SV, 30.2 IP, 1.076 WHIP, 9.7 K/9

Behind what were some good numbers for Romo in 2016 was an injured plagued year and a drop in velocity.  Still, Romo had a solid season with numbers in line with his career norms.  Unless his elbow injury is worse than believed, it is hard to imagine why a quality reliever like him, one who has closing experience, remains on the free agent market.

Joe Smith

2016 Stats: 2-5, 3.46 ERA, 54 G, 6 SV, 65.1 IP, 1.250 WHIP, 6.9 K/9

Like his former teammate Salas, Smith had regressed in 2015, and he was performing worse in 2016.  Also like Salas, Smith was traded to a postseason team with a excellent pitch framers, and he thrived.  In 16 appearances for the Cubs, Smith posted a 2.51 ERA, 1.116 WHIP, and a 9.4 K/9.  Despite his success in those 16 appearances, Smith was left off the Cubs postseason roster.

Overall, there are a number of relievers still remaining on the free agent market.  Some of these players may be able to be acquired on a minor league deal.  Others may still command major league deals, and yet some more may still get a multi-year contract.  Each one of these pitchers at least has potential to be a contributor to a major league bullpen in 2017.  With all of these choices remaining, it remains possible the Mets are able to add a quality reliever at a reasonable or even discounted price.

 

Mets Veteran Starting Options

Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Steven Matz are coming off season ending surgeries, and the Mets most likely don’t want them making over 30 starts and/or going over 200 innings.  The Mets need someone to fill-in for those starts and eat up some innings.

Additionally, the team needs a fifth starter.  If the season was going to begin today, the fifth starter would be determined by a competition between Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.  Both pitchers showed enough to prove they deserve the job out of Spring Training.  However, both pitchers are likely going to be on innings limits, which would prevent them from pitching the entire 2017 season unless the team skips a couple of their starts.  That reverts back to the issue created by Harvey, deGrom, and Matz that the Mets need another arm to eat up some innings.

Naturally, the hope is that Zack Wheeler could be the fifth starter at some point during the season.  However, after missing two straight seasons due to Tommy John surgery, the Mets would be hard pressed to rely upon him to provide anything during the 2017 season.  It is a large reason why the Mets have at least discussed the possibility of putting Wheeler in the bullpen to start the season.

Pitchers like Sean Gilmartin and Gabriel Ynoa did not show the Mets enough in 2016 to prove they can be relied upon to make more than one or two spot starts.  With that, it is likely the Mets are going to need to look outside the organization for a pitcher who is willing to start the year as a fifth starter, but is willing to transition to the bullpen as the year progresses.  Ultimately, the Mets are looking for someone to reprise the role that Bartolo Colon was slated to serve during the 2016 season.  With that in mind, here are some available free agent pitchers who could serve in that role:

Rubby De La Rosa

2016 Stats: 4-5, 4.26 ERA, 13 G, 10 GS, 50.2 IP, 1.243 WHIP, 9.6 K/9

While Welington Castillo got most of the publicity, De La Rosa was another surprise non-tender by the Arizona Diamondbacks. The reason De La Rosa was non-tendered was because there remains a real possibility he needs a second Tommy John surgery. At the moment, he has been trying to use stem cell treatment as a means to circumvent the surgery. For what it is worth, Bartolo Colon used the stem cell therapy back in 2010, and he was able to revive his major league career.

When he is healthy, De La Rosa has a live arm with him throwing a mid to high 90s fastball with a curve and slider who has shown some flashes of dominance. De La Rosa does have issues walking batters in his career, but it should be noted he was pitching to the aforementioned Castillo who is a terrible pitch framer.

Assuming the stem cell therapy will work, and further assuming De La Rosa is ready by Opening Day, the 27 year old needs a team who will help him harness his stuff and a catching staff that will help him get those borderline pitches.  With that in mind, there are few places that are better fits for De La Rosa than the Mets.  At a minimum, the Mets can offer the young pitcher at least a chance to pitch in the rotation while also assuring him a spot in the bullpen where he could become a lights out reliever.

Scott Feldman

2016 Stats: 7-4, 3.97 ERA, 40 G, 5 GS, 77.0 IP, 1.377 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

While Feldman has spent the majority of his career as a league average starting pitcher, the Astros moved Feldman into the bullpen in the 2016 season, and Feldman pitched well for the team in that role.  What is interesting about Feldman’s success was he didn’t throw any differently out of the bullpen than he did as a starter.  The main reason is that in his career as a starter, batters tend to hit Feldman much harder the third time through the lineup.

Overall, Feldman’s numbers would have been much better had he not struggled in his 14 appearances for the Blue Jays.  In those 14 appearances, he pitched to an 8.40 ERA and a 1.933 WHIP.  It might have just been a slump or a poor mix with the Blue Jays because Feldman has not wilted under pressure in his career.  In nine postseason relief appearances, Feldman is 1-0 with a 3.29 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, and a 7.2 K/9.

Given Feldman’s ability to pitch as a league average starter, and his being even more effective out of the bullpen, Feldman could very well be the exact pitcher the Mets need in 2017.

Edwin Jackson

2016 Stats: 5-7, 5.89 ERA, 21 G, 13 GS, 84.0 IP, 1.583 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

For nearly 14 years, there have been 11 franchises that have taken on the mantle of being the franchise that is going to be able to figure out Jackson and help him unlock his potential.  With a career losing record and a 4.65 ERA, none have been successful, and now the 32 year old is a free agent.

There is no doubt Jackson has talent.  He is a five pitch pitcher that predominantly relies upon a low to mid 90s fastball and a slider.  Through his tenure as the Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen has been successful in helping pitchers like Jackson.  Like many of the other pitchers on this list, Jackson should be aided by the Mets pitch framing.  The combination of Warthen and the pitch framing has been shown to help a number of pitchers who have come to the Mets the past few seasons.

Over the last two seasons, Jackson has also begun pitching out of the bullpen.  In 2015, he showed some promise in the role making 47 appearances while going 4-3 with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.168 WHIP.  He would limit batters to a .218/.291/.332 batting line.  Unfortunately, he regressed as a reliever in 2016 after he had failed again as a starter.  Overall, as is the story with most of Jackson’s career, there is promise here, and a union with the Mets could be mutually beneficial.

Kris Medlen

2016 Stats: 1-3, 7.77 ERA, 6 G, 6 GS,  2.055 WHIP, 6.7 K/9

Medlen has gone from a promising young pitcher with the Atlanta Braves to a pitcher whose career is a crossroads with him being limited during the 2016 season with shoulder issues.  While these shoulder issues did not require surgery, they limited Medlen in 2016, and it had an impact on his performance.  Another issue with Medlen is his having two Tommy John surgeries.

With that said, when Medlen is right, he is a good pitcher.  His last year with the Braves, before he needed a second Tommy John surgery, he was 15-12 with a 3.11 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, and a 7.2 K/9.  In 2015, his first year back from his second Tommy John surgery, Medlen was 6-2 with a 4.01 ERA, 1.269 WHIP, and a 6.2 K/9 between eight starts and seven relief appearances.  In the 2015 postseason, he made two appearances pitching six innings with a 3.00 ERA, 0.667 WHIP, and a 12.0 K/9.

If the medicals check out, Medlen can be a very effective pitcher for someone.  Considering the need to get a pitcher comfortable in the rotation and the bullpen, the Mets might be a good fit.

Jon Niese

2016 Stats: 8-7, 5.50 ERA, 29 G, 20 GS, 121.0 IP, 1.587 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

Admittedly, no Mets fan wants to see Niese in a Mets uniform again, especially after a disastrous 2016 season for Niese.  However, it should be noted that Niese was dealing with a knee issue that required season ending surgery.  It should also be noted Niese has been a league average pitcher under Warthen’s tutledge.

In his six seasons as a starter for the Mets, Niese was 59-59 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.351 WHIP, and a 7.0 K/9.  We also saw him come out of the bullpen and get some big outs in the 2015 postseason.  Looking at the pitchers who are likely going to get incentivized one year deals or minor league deals with invitations to Spring Training, you can do a lot worse than Niese.

There is certainly any number of places the Mets could go this offseason.  There are pitchers like Matt Harrison who are injury risks, but who can also be dominant pitchers when healthy.  There are also reclamation projects like Jered Weaver and Tim Lincecum.  Overall, there are many different ways to go.  At this point, the Mets just need to identify their guy, be patient, and let the market develop.  Once it does, the Mets could obtain a pitcher who could very well be a difference maker during the 2017 season.