As the Mets head into the stretch drive with only 25 games remaining on the schedule, Terry Collins has made it abundantly clear he is going to rely heavily on his veterans down the stretch.
In Michael Conforto‘s first game back from AAA, he was 1-3 with a double and a hit by pitch. He sat the next day. In his second start, Conforto would go 1-3 with another double and a walk. On top of that, he had a game changing diving stop in center field. Despite Collins’ “You hit, you play” mantra, Conforto is sitting.
In his stead, Curtis Granderson is playing. Granderson is playing despite struggling himself most of the season. He’s struggling more so with runners in scoring position. He’s also miscast as a center fielder despite his having been a pretty good one earlier in his career.
With that in mind, the Mets need Granderson out there producing. The team needs the Granderson who was the Mets MVP of the 2015 season. They need the guy who hit three homers in last year’s World Series.
After what has been a season to forget, that Granderson seems to finally be reemerging. In his first at bat with runners in scoring position as the newly and implausibly minted cleanup hitter, Granderson delivered with a two run single.
On Sunday night, Granderson followed with a sacrifice fly scoring Jose Reyes from third. Later in the game, Granderson hit a go-ahead two run home run. In two games as the cleanup hitter, Granderson has five RBI.
If the Mets are going to finish off this run and win the Wild Card, the Mets are going to need this Granderson to help lead the way. They need him because he’s an important part of this team. They need him because the Mets need something resembling lineup protection for Yoenis Cespedes. They need him because no matter what, Collins is going to play him.
There’s just something about August and September that Terry Collins’ insane decision making just seems to work. Tonight, it was Curtis Granderson: Cleanup Hitter.
There is no reason to think this was a good idea. Granderson entered the game with only 40 RBI despite hitting 22 homers. He has a .126 batting average with runners in scoring position. It’s .070 with two outs. Yet, there he was – the Mets cleanup hitter. Naturally, it worked.
First, he came up in the bottom of the first with Jose Reyes and Asdrubal Cabrera on second and third with one out. Naturally, when Yoenis Cespedes couldn’t deliver, Granderson did. He would hit a sacrifice fly scoring Reyes to make it a 1-0 game.
The Nationals would tie the game at one in the second on a Danny Espinosa solo shot against Seth Lugo.
It was the lone blip on the night from Lugo, who just got stronger as the game went on. He navigated his way out of a bases loaded first inning jam getting Wilson Ramos to ground out. After the Espinosa homer, he completely shut down the Nationals. What was impressive again wasn’t just his curveball, but also his ability to dial up the fastball when he needed it. In a sixth inning strikeout of Ramos, Lugo dialed it up to 97. In fact, he got stronger as he went deeper into the game:
Lugo avg FB velo by inning:
1: 92.5 mph
2: 91.0
3: 92.5
4: 90.3
5: 92.3
6: 93.9Second straight start Lugo let it loose in his final IP
— Tim Finnegan (@timfinn521) September 5, 2016
His final line was seven innings, six hits, one run, one earned, no walks, and four strikeouts. Once again, he was economical throwing 101 pitches.
Lugo got the win, in part, because Granderson emerged again. Granderson would hit a two run home run to give the Mets a 3-1 lead. They wouldn’t look back.
In fact, they would tack on runs with the help of another strange Collins decision.
Despite going 1-3 with a walk and a GREAT defensive play, Collins benched Michael Conforto in favor of the slumping and ill at ease in New York Jay Bruce.
The move initially backfired as Bruce made the last out in the second trying to go first to third with two outs on a Lugo single. He would be nailed by Trea Turner. In fairness to Bruce, he was probably relying on Tim Teufel, who has been a bad third base coach.
In the sixth, he would make up for that and a lot of frustration with an opposite field two run shot:
With that, the Mets jumped out to a 5-1 lead. On a related note, Conforto may never play again.
Ultimately, however, this night was about Lugo who continues to get better and better. The Mets could’ve fallen apart after losing Steven Matz to the disabled list and Jacob deGrom missing starts with an arm injury that still has not been fully disclosed.
Instead, Lugo has stepped up, and he has arguably been the best starter on a Mets team one game out of a playoff spot. For those that truly believe and/or are off their meds, the Mets are 8.5 games out in the division.
By the way, Collins left on an insane note pitching Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia to close it out because they haven’t been overworked enough and because the four run lead was in serious jeopardy. It was more so in the ninth with the bottom of the Nationals roster due up. He also left a hobbled Cabrera out there in the ninth.
Guess those moves “worked” too because the Mets won.
Game Notes: James Loney is scorching going 1-3 tonight.
Pennant Race: The Cardinals beat the Reds 5-2. The Pirates lost to the Brewers 10-0. The Giants lost to the Cubs 3-2. The Marlins lost to the Indians 6-5.
Sometimes all you need is a chance.
We saw it in Jacob deGrom in 2014. The 26 year old got a chance due to injuries, and the most of it. He not only showed the Mets he was a better pitcher than then well regarded prospect Rafael Montero, he also showed he was an important part of the Mets rotation going forward. From there, deGrom won the Rookie of the Year award, was named an All Star, and pitched the opener of the 2015 postseason. This all happened because he got a chance.
Seth Lugo is getting his chance, and like deGrom, he is making the most of it.
Initially, Lugo was called up to pitch out of the bullpen. He immediately made an impression with his awesome curveball:
In a Mets organization that places such emphasis on the slider and falls in love with fastballs that go over 95+ MPH, you could somewhat understand why Lugo wasn’t more highly regarded. You can really understand it when you consider he had a 6.50 ERA in AAA. Still, Lugo had a good repertoire including that curveball.
According to Statcast, Lugo’s curveball has a higher spin rate than anyone else’s in baseball. Yes, even Clayton Kershaw. The increased spin creates two effects: (1) it created downward movement inducing ground balls; and (2) it induces a number if swings and misses. Lugo’s curveball is a tremendous pitch, and it could very well have been the best pitch in a of the Mets minor league system.
Lugo likes to evenly mix all of his pitches. Even so, the curve is the money pitch. According to Brooks Baseball, Lugo generates the highest percentage of his strikeouts on the pitch. Furthermore, the pitch generates the lowest batting average against than any of his other pitches. Perhaps the reason why it’s so effective, other than its spin rate, is the fact that he’s very selective with the pitch. Other than his change, the curveball is the pitch Lugo throws the least often.
This means he mostly relies on his 93 MPH sinker and his 94 MPH fastball. What is impressive about his fastball is his ability to dial it up over 96 MPH in pressure spots. Lugo also has an 88 MPH slider which has been an effective pitch for him. If Warthen is able to help Lugo improve his slider like he has with everyone else on the staff, Lugo’s ceiling will go into the next stratosphere.
Again, the interesting thing breaking down Lugo’s pitches is you’re breaking down the pitches of a pitcher who had the stuff to be in a big league rotation. Prior to this season, there may not have been many who believed that. As Lugo was struggling in AAA, there were probably even fewer. And yet, here he is. He’s not just a major league pitcher, but he’s also an important piece of a rotation that may well be on its way to the postseason.
And all Lugo needed to show us all this was possible was a chance. He got it, and like deGrom, he has made the most of it.
Last night, the Mets received some devastating news when it was discovered that Neil Walker was going to miss the rest of the season due to a herniated disc that is going to require surgery. With Walker done for the year, the Mets are missing not only a good defender, but also a good bat. Someway, somehow the Mets are going to have to replace Walker’s .282/.347/.476 batting line and his 23 homers. It is no easy task.
The obvious solution is a Wilmer Flores – Kelly Johnson platoon. That tandem should be able to replicate Walker’s production as both are incredibly hot at the plate. Flores hit .306/.346/.542 in August with five homers and 19 RBI. Better yet, he is hitting .340/.386/.691 with 10 homers and 26 RBI off lefties this season. For his part, Johnson is hitting .289/.353/.511 with eight homers and 20 RBI in 60 games for the Mets. Over the last month, he is hitting .288/.348/.576 with five homers and 14 RBI. Johnson also had that game winning bases clearing RBI double last night that helped the Mets win the game.
If second base were the only issue, that would be fine. However, the Mets have issues at first base and shortstop that needs to be addressed.
At first base, the Mets have a floundering James Loney. In the month of August, he hit .213/.222/.447 with just one extra base hit. Worse yet, these numbers were with Terry Collins shielding him against left-handed pitching. As we saw last night, Collins is going to be forced to play Flores at first and Johnson at second. When you couple that with Asdrubal Cabrera dealing with a knee injury, the Mets do not have much margin for error.
Even with the rosters expanding today, that remains to be true as the players on the 40 man roster leave a lot to be desired as an everyday replacement.
the 40 man roster, the Mets have enigmatic options.
Eric Campbell is once again dominating AAA hitting .297/.396/.428 with 13 doubles, four triples, five homers, and 40 RBI. Yes, four triples. However, this follows a stint where he didn’t hit in the majors going .159/.270/.222.
Ty Kelly is coming off a decent stint in the majors where Collins shielded the switch-hitter against left-handed pitching. Since his demotion Kelly is hitting .258/.314/.290 with only one extra base hit in the extremely hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.
Finally, there is Matt Reynolds who hit .211/.231/.382 in 37 games with the Mets. After the AAA All Star Break, Reynolds has been hitting .255/.333/.294 with only four doubles in 102 at bats.
Keep in mind, T.J. Rivera is not an option at the moment as he needs to remain in the minors until next week because he was sent down to make room for Rafael Montero‘s spot start. This means that even though the Mets have warm bodies available to play the middle infield, they do not have players who can play everyday at the major league level.
With these three not hitting or having established they are not capable of hitting at the major league level, the Mets need to turn in another direction for help. With that in mind, the Mets best option is their 2012 first round draft pick Gavin Cecchini.
While playing shortstop this season, Cecchini has been hitting .327/.388/.449 with 27 doubles, two triples, seven homers, and 53 RBI. Over the past month, Cecchini is hitting .358/.378/.480 with nine doubles, two homers, and 12 RBI. While many have knocked his defense as he has a woeful .929 fielding percentage, it is notable that Cecchini has gone his last 14 games without an error.
For what it is worth, Cecchini has only played one game at secondin his minor league career, and that was Thursday. It should be noted with the rise of Amed Rosario and the trade of Dilson Herrera, Cecchini’s future will be second base. Given the fact that Collins had no issue throwing Reynolds into left field in a game without him having ever played there before, the concerns about him not being a second baseman are a bit overblown.
In reality, the only thing preventing the Mets from calling up Cecchini right now is the fact that he’s not on the 40 man roster. However, with the Jon Niese and Neil Walker injuries, the Mets have the opportunity to move either of them to the 60 day disabled list freeing up a spot for Cecchini. Keep in mind, the Mets are going to have to add Cecchini this offseason anyway to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft.
With the Mets needing to patch things together on the right side of their infield, they need as many options as possible. They also need some insurance for Cabrera’s knee. They could use another shortstop who could take over for Cabrera late in games to allow him to rest his knee. Furthermore, given the Mets team speed, they could use someone who could be available to pinch run late in games.
Cecchini could fulfill each of these roles quite well. Furthermore, if given the opportunity, he might just prove more valuable than that. At this point, there is really no good reason to keep Cecchini in AAA. He needs to be up in the majors now helping the Mets return to the postseason.
Editor’s Note: this article also appeared on Mets Minors
Tonight, there were only two Mets who played well in a huge series against the Washington Nationals – Asdrubal Cabrera and Noah Syndergaard. It wasn’t enough.
Cabrera homered off Nationals starter A.J. Cole in the fourth to narrow the gap to 2-1. Overall, Cabrera was 2-3 with the homer and a walk. Jay Bruce was the only other Met to get a hit off of Cole.
In reality, the Mets did nothing against a young pitcher who has struggled in his limited major league appearances. In his five major league appearances, he was 0-1 with a 5.32 ERA and a 1.318 WHIP. At 24 years old, he’s still just a prospect who could conceivably break out at any time. However, he’s really seen as a mid to back of the rotation guy. This was just another case of the disappearing Mets offense.
It is a shame too because it spoiled a very good Syndergaard start. Syndergaard’s final line was seven innings, three hits, two runs, two earned, one walk, and four strikeouts. Seeing that line, it begs the question – how did the Nationals score two runs with only four baserunners and no extra base hits.
Simple, Syndergaard cannot hold base runners.
In the first, Trea Turner led off the game with a single. He then proceeded to steal second AND third. No, Travis d’Arnaud wasn’t catching; it was Rene Rivera showing yet again the stolen base issue lies with the starting pitchers. Turner would then score on a Bryce Harper sacrifice fly. Daniel Murphy would also steal a base in the inning, but he would not score.
In the fourth, Harper hit a one out double, and he stole third. That set up yet another sacrifice fly. This time it was Wilson Ramos.
Just like that, the Nationals “manufactured” both of their runs. They got the guys on, got them over, and got them in. It’s something the Mets offense has struggled with all year.
The Mets would have one chance to tie the game in the seventh.
Marc Rzepczynski (your guess is as good as mine as to whether that is spelled correctly) relieved Cole, and he made quick work of Curtis Granderson and Kelly Johnson. Rzepczynski would then issue a free pass to Rivera, and he would plunk d’Arnaud.
At that point, Terry Collins and Dusty Baker would go to their benches. Collins would tab Ty Kelly to pinch run for Rivera. Baker would bring in Koda Glover (definitely no relation to Danny or Donald) to pitch to Jose Reyes making sure Reyes was hitting from his much weaker side. Glover would blow a 98 MPH fastball past Reyes to end the inning.
But, hey, Reyes did this to a ball earlier in the game:
The game was then out if reach in the ninth before the Mets would bat. Jerry Blevins started the inning to face the left-handed Murphy and Harper. A single and a double later, and Collins turned to Hansel Robles. Robles immediately gave up a two RBI single to Anthony Rendon making it a 4-1 game.
What we all observed was the difference between the 2015 and 2016 Nationals. The Nationals have a manger that has a reputation in bringing out the best in his guys. They also gave a much better bullpen. During the stretch run last year, they had Jonathan Papelbon. This year it’s Mark Melancon.
It’s a huge difference. It’s the difference between losing the division by seven games and having a 10.5 game division lead. Well, that and having Murphy.
Game Notes: Even with the righty on the mound, James Loney would sit, and Wilmer Flores played first. Michael Conforto did not start, but he made a PH appearance in the ninth. Fernando Salas pitched another scoreless inning.
Pennant Race: The Pirates lost 1-0 to the Brewers. The Marlins are lost 6-2 to the Indians. The Cardinals lost 3-2 to the Reds.
After a long and inexplicable exile, Michael Conforto is finally back with the Mets. He was gone mostly because Terry Collins had to back up this threat “And those that don’t want to get after it, I’ll find some who do. Because in Las Vegas there is a whole clubhouse of guys that want to sit in this room.” (nj.com) after an embarrassing 9-0 loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks at home.
Since that time, here is how the outfielders who the Mets decided “really wanted to get after it” have performed between the time of Conforto’s August 12th demotion and his September 1st call-up:
Granderson has been hitting .173/.274/.442 with 11 runs, two doubles, four homers, and seven RBI. Keep in mind, most of that damage started a couple of days ago when Granderson came off the bench to hit two homers against the Marlins. At least with Granderson, Collins followed through on this threat benching him against left-handed pitching.
Bruce has been the team’s main right fielder hitting .190/.277/.259 with four doubles, two homers, and two RBI. Unfortunately, that isn’t too much different than the .183/.262/.290 batting line he has had while joining the Mets. Naturally, since joining the Mets, he has had to deal with nagging leg injuries, which presumably have affected his production at the plate as well as his play in the outfield.
De Aza has had two great games since Conforto’s demotion. On August 16th, he went 2-4 with two runs, two doubles, a walks, and an RBI in a 7-5 win over the Diamondbacks. On August 25th, he went 2-4 with two runs, a homer, a walk, and five RBI in a 10-6 win over the Cardinals. In his other 17 games, De Aza has gone 5-42 with one extra base hit and five RBI.
Ruggiano came off the disabled list, played extremely well in five games, and he has found his way back onto the disabled list. Ruggiano has now been transferred to the 60 day disabled list meaning he’s done for the season. When he initially went on the 15 day disabled list, the Mets called up T.J. Rivera instead of Conforto.
Michael Conforto
Since his demotion, Conforto has played in 15 games hitting .493/.541/.821 with four doubles, six homers, and 13 RBI while playing both center and left field. Against lefties, Conforto has been hitting .488/.553/.732 with a double, three homers, and 11 RBI in 41 AAA at bats this season. He’s been thriving while the outfielder the Mets kept who Collins dubbed “really wanted to get after it” struggled, were injured, or both.
In his first game back, Conforto went 1-3 with a double and a HBP. In the eighth, he hit into a back breaking double play. With that double play, Collins may have his ammunition to bench Conforto again.
It’s a shame too because Conforto can really hit when he is actually given a chance. It’s also a shame because the Mets have shown they’d rather send a group of outfielders hitting below the Mendoza Line rather than let Conforto go out there and hit.
After the Mets taking three of four from the Marlins, Mets fans feel much better about their chances of making the postseason. After that sweep, the Mets are now just two games back of the free falling St. Louis Cardinals for the second Wild Card spot, and they are also just four games behind the struggling San Francisco Giants for the top Wild Card spot. While nothing is guaranteed, especially with Neil Walker being definitively done for the season, you have to like the Mets chances of returning to the postseason for a second straight season.
With the Washington Nationals rolling into town, it begs the question – is the National League East really out of reach?
For normal fan bases, the answer would be a definitive no. The current 9.5 game deficit (ten in the loss column) is way too much of a hurdle to overcome in just 28 games. However, Mets fans are the same fans that have seen a team collapse with a seven game lead with 17 games left in the season. With that, Mets fans learned that anything is possible.
For the Mets to win the National League East, a lot of things have to break the right way. With the Mets having six head-to-head matchups, the Mets have a real opportunity to become a factor in the National League East race. If the Mets sweep both series, similar to how they did last August, that 9.5 game deficit becomes a much more manageable 3.5 game deficit (four in the loss column). When viewed through that prism, a 3.5 game deficit is certainly one that can be overcome with 22 games left on the schedule.
It becomes more of a debate if the Mets are only capable of taking four out of the six from the Nationals. In that case, the Mets would the be eight games back in the loss column with 22 games remaining on the schedule. Again, better odds than the seven in 17 route.
In those remaining 22 games, the Mets have 19 games against teams with losing records. Six of those are against a Braves team who are on pace to lose 100 games. Another three are against a Twins team who is also on pace to lose 100 games. Factor in another three games against the Reds who are on pace to lose more than 90 games that’s 12 games against teams that will lose over 90 games this season.
The other team team with a losing record left on the Mets schedule is the Phillies. The Mets have gone 20-9 against the Phillies since the start of the 2015 season. That means the Mets are primed to make up some ground with seven games remaining against the Phillies.
Other than the Nationals, the only team with a winning record on the Mets schedule is the very same Miami Marlins team the Mets just beat three out of four times.
Unfortunately, the Nationals have a very similar schedule to the Mets for the rest of the season. That means if the Mets are going to win the National League East, they are not only going to have to take full advantage of their head-to-head games against the Nationals, and they are going to have to beat up on a really weak September schedule.
The chances of that happening? As we all know, it’s not very good. Fangraphs puts the Mets odds of winning the division at 0.2%. Baseball Prospectus is more optimistic putting the Mets chances at 0.4%. As Lloyd Christmas would say, “So you’re telling me there’s a chance. YEAH!”
In reality, the Mets best chance of returning to the postseason is to get one of the two Wild Card spots. With that said, for a fanbase that saw a seven game lead with 17 games left in the seasons vanish into thin air, we all know no September lead is insurmountable. The Mets have their chance to do the impossible starting tonight with a three game set against the Nationals.
Thanks in part to the stupidity of Jenrry Mejia, the Mets changed closers in 2015. From 2015 to the present, the current Mets closer has recorded more saves over a two game stretch than any other closer in Mets history. Can you name him and the other closers he has surpassed? Good luck!