Seth Lugo’s Last Start Is Just the Beginning

Tonight marks Seth Lugo‘s last start in what has been an already incredible season for him.  More than any other pitcher in the Mets organization, it was unlikely that Lugo would find himself in this position.

After 14 starts and a 6.93 ERA for AAA Las Vegas, the Mets organization decided Lugo should not be a starting pitcher.  It was certainly understandable.  The Mets major league team was flush with young starting pitching with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven MatzZack Wheeler was supposed to join them soon as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  If the Mets needed a spot starter, there was Logan Verrett, who did the job quite admirably last year, and Sean Gilmartin, who pitched well in the majors last season.  When you also consider the Mets had well regarded pitching prospects in Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, it was seemingly time to move Lugo to the bullpen.  At 26 years old, it was probably his best chance to make it to the majors.

Lo and behold, that’s exactly how he would make it to the bigs.  In his first major league appearance, he unleashed what was then the best curveball ever thrown in the Statcast Era.  The pitch fooled Anthony Rizzo, a player who finished in the top four in MVP voting last year, is a three time All Star, and is hitting .305/.395/.579 with 23 homers and 72 RBI off right-handed pitching.  Right then and there Lugo not only showed that his curveball may be the best pitch in the entire Mets system, but that he belongs in the major leagues.

Lugo would continue to show he was a major leauger in his next nine appearances.  In those appearances, he pitched 17.0 innings with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP.  In those appearances, he limited batters to a .185/.273/.222 batting line.

Then disaster struck – not to Lugo, but to the Mets starting rotation.  With Lugo pitching well out of the bullpen, he soon found himself in the one place no one thought he was ever going to be.  The starting rotation.  In his first start, Lugo was much better than anyone ever imagined pitching 6.2 innings against the Giants.  He was able to be economical with his pitches thereby allowing him to go deep into the game despite it being his first start in two months.

From there, Lugo has shown he belongs in the rotation.  In Lugo’s seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP.  When there are runners in scoring position, Lugo has shown the ability to bear down (some would call it luck) adding a few extra MPH to his fastball and relying a little more heavily on a curveball that generates both swings and misses as well as groundballs.  As a result, batters are only hitting .163/.259/.233 off of him in those situations.

That’s where Lugo finds himself on his last start of the regular season.  He’s taking the mound against the Marlins in the hopes of dropping the Mets magic number to clinch one of the Wild Card spots from four to three or two.  He’s also making his case that he should pitch the Wild Card Game in the event Syndergaard has to pitch in the regular season finale on Sunday.  He’s also making the case he should be the third starter over Gsellman this postseason.

He’s also making the case that he belongs in the long term plans of the New York Mets.  He’s already done a terrific job of doing that so far.  Another strong start here and a good postseason, it’ll be a guarantee.

Fernando Salas Is This Year’s Addison Reed

Last season, on the eve of September, Sandy Alderson went out and obtained Addison Reed from the Arizona Diamondbacks.  Up until that point in the season, Reed was  having a poor year that included a demotion to AAA.  In his 38 appearances with the Diamondbacks, he was 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP while only striking out 7.5 batters per nine innings.  When Reed joined the Mets, he became a much different pitcher.  In his 17 September appearances, he was 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9.  With that, Reed locked down the seventh inning a Mets team and bullpen that would go all the way to the World Series.

Fernando Salas could be this year’s version of Addison Reed.

Like Reed, Alderson went out and got Salas right before the waiver trade deadline.  Similar to Reed, Alderson pounced on a reliever with a good track record, had some closing experience, and was having a down year.  In Salas’ 58 appearances with the Angels, he was 3-6 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.260 WHIP.  Now, he had been pitching better in August, but he still had a 3.48 ERA for the month.  That’s a nice reliever to have, but that’s not the lockdown seventh inning reliever a team with World Series aspirations needs.

Well, like Reed the year before, Salas has become a better pitcher with the Mets.  In his 14 appearances with the Mets, Salas has a sterling 1.88 ERA and a 0.628 WHIP.  He has gone from striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings to striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings with the Mets.  Salas is maintaining this high level with the Mets despite his throwing the fifth most innings in all of baseball in the month of September.

What is interesting bout Salas’ turnaround is that his stuff hasn’t changed all that much from the Angels to the Mets. He is getting slightly more movement, but it’s not so appreciable that he would become a completely different pitcher.  He still rarely uses his slider, and he uses his changeup as an out pitch.  Looking at these numbers, you would expect a regression.  However, there is something different Salas is doing that is not indicated here that gives you hope this tremendous stretch is for real.  He’s throwing strikes.

Salas went from walking 3.0 batters per nine innings this year with the Angels to not walking anyone with the Mets.  The reason is Salas is throwing more strikes.  He’s getting into the games, establishing his fastball quickly, and he is pounding the zone.

A large part of this is Salas making a concerted effort to throw more strikes.  Another part of the reason is the difference between the Mets catchers and the Angels catchers.  Again, Travis d’Arnaud has shown himself to be one of the better pitch framers in all of baseball.  Rene Rivera is also having a better season in that respect than he has had in year’s past.  As for the Angels catchers Carlos Perez and Jeff Bandy, they have not been good pitch framers at all this season.  The difference between the two sets of catchers is a big one.  It is the difference between falling behind early in the count allowing you to set up a batter for a strikeout to trying to get a pitch over so you don’t issue a free pass.  It is the difference between a called strike three and a batter getting a free pass.

Overall, Salas has been the beneficiary of the Mets catchers exceptional pitch framing.  The Mets have been the beneficiaries of Salas’ pitching.  With him, the Mets have a pitcher that has allowed them to ease off the overworked Reed and Jeurys Familia down the stretch.  With him, the Mets have a terrific 7-8-9 trio to close out important games.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.

Terry Collins Decision of the Game: Why Was Cabrera and Reyes Playing in a Blowout?

When the score was 4-1, you understood Terry Collins keeping his big guys in the game. However, why are the Mets keeping them in during a 9-1 game?  

Asdrubal Cabrera is so banged up that he has taken to sliding to stop his momentum whenever he can. Anytime you can get him off the field and give him some rest, you need to do it. Getting that rest is more important than him hitting that ninth inning single that helped turn a 9-1 lead into a 12-1 lead. 
Cabrera’s single came after a Jose Reyes base hit. Reyes remained in the game despite his tripping over second on his eighth inning double. Rather than take him out there or after the inning, he was left to finish the game. 

The Mets still had Gavin CecchiniEric Campbell, and Matt Reynolds on the bench. They were all quite capable of playing an inning or two to protect a 9-1 lead. They’re especially capable when the Mets are going to use Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia in the game.

The decision was even more baffling when you consider the Mets announced Wilmer Flores is still unable to take batting practice. Remember Flores isn’t playing because Tim Teufel is a poor third base coach and because Collins didn’t think about pinch running for a player slower than molasses. 

Collins apparently learned nothing from the Flores situation.  It didn’t hurt the Mets last night, but as we have seen, it can’t hurt you at any given moment. Y

Mets Beat Up On the Marlins

After last night, the Mets needed to get things back on track lest they once again miss the playoffs due to them losing games to the Marlins. Things didn’t get off to a good start with Dee Gordon hitting a leadoff single, stealing second, and coming home on a Marcell Ozuna single.

Gordon’s stolen base would be the 48th stolen base against Noah Syndergaard. This was about as poor a start as you could expect. After that Syndergaard would get locked in. 

Syndergaard would go six innings allowing five hits, one earned, and no walks with eight strikeouts. It’s exactly the type of start both he and the Mets needed. 

The Mets quickly claimed the lead off Tom Koehler, who the Mets hit very well. In the second, Jay Bruce continued his hot hitting with a two run homer. He would go 2-5 with a run, two RBI, and a homer. 

In the third, Yoenis Cespedes hit a monster two run homer over the “Home Run Sculpture.”

This marked the first time both Bruce and Cespedes homered in the same game for the Mets. 

The Mets would have a 4-1 lead, and Don Mattingly would do all he could do to keep the Marlins in the game making seven pitching changes. It worked until the eighth inning. 

The Mets put a huge five spot on the board blowing the game wide open. After the Marlins intentionally walked Cespedes to load the bases, Curtis Granderson hit a two RBI single making it 6-1. 

Bruce then singled to reload the bases, and then with two outs, Lucas Duda got his biggest hit since being activated from the disabled list with a bases clearing double. Duda has been sharper than expected in his return, but this was his best game. On the night, he was 2-3 with three RBI, two walks (one intentional), and the double. 

As if things weren’t good enough with a 9– 1 lead, the Mets scored three in the top of the ninth to make it 12-1. The bases were again loaded. Michael Conforto hit an RBI force out, and Granderson hit a RBI double to deep center. It was a huge night for Granderson with him going 2-4 with two runs, three RBI, two walks, and a double. 

The final run was scored on a Juan Lagares sacrifice fly. It was the first time Lagares swung the bat at a pitch since returning from surgery to repair a torn tendon in his left thumb. 

Tonight, everything was clicking, and the Mets took care of business. Their magic number is now four. 

Game Notes: Syndergaard was 2-3 at the plate. Jose Reyes was 3-6 with two runs and a double. Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia each pitched an inning after not having pitched in four days. 

Terry Collins Decision of the Game: Are You Sticking with Bartolo Colon or Not?

The reason why Bartolo Colon has been effective all season has been his ability to locate and put movement on his high 80s fastball.  When he is unable to do that, he becomes a batting practice pitcher.  Last night, Colon was a batting practice pitcher.  It all come unraveling in a four run second inning.

Consider for a second, the first out of the inning was a sacrifice bunt by the opposing pitcher Adam Conley. Up until that point, the Marlins first four batters of the inning had hit the ball hard, and there were already two runs scored.  Dee Gordon the followed his first inning home run with a two RBI single making it 5-0.  With the way the Mets offense has been hitting lately, and with the Marlins bullpen most likely needing to do a bulk of the heavy lifting on the night, this game was not out of reach.

What was interesting was Colon was due up second in the top of the third.  Last week, Terry Collins was very aggressive pulling his pitchers in a search for more offense to win games.  Granted, there is a massive difference between pulling Colon early than Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, or Gabriel Ynoa, but the game was already on the verge of getting out of hand at 5-0.  Furthermore, with Gsellman going deep into Sunday’s game along with the Mets not needing Ynoa or Rafael Montero to start another game this year, the Mets could’ve rolled the dice in pulling Colon.  Instead, Collins stuck with the veteran in the hopes that he would get himself right and go deep in the game.

In the bottom of the third, it was clear that wasn’t going to happen.  Right off the bat, Christian Yelich hit the ball hard, and it deflected off of Colon.  After the play, Collins and Ray Ramirez would go out to the mound with Colon ignoring Ramirez.  Giancarlo Stanton followed with a hard line drive out to center.  At this point in time, it was clear Colon didn’t have it, and yet he would go another batter.  Justin Bour then hit a hard line drive to right that Jay Bruce misplayed into a two run triple to make it 7-0.  Right then and there, the game was effectively over.  It was right then and there that Collins lifted Colon for Ynoa.

If you want to defend Colon pitching to start the third, you can make the case.  You can make an even better case given the emotions of the night and the way Colon was being hit around, he should not have been in the game.  The issue becomes why not let Colon finish the inning?  It’s one thing to go to your bullpen for six plus innings to stay in a close game.  It’s a whole other matter to go that deep into the pen for a game you’ve already lost.  Why not let Colon figure it out?  At that point, what is the difference between 7-0 and 10-0?  You might as well try to steal a couple of innings out of him to save the bullpen a bit – even with the expanded rosters.

As it turned out, the Mets bullpen wouldn’t get burned.  They got good work out of a group of relievers who are most likely not going to be on the postseason roster with Ynoa, Montero, Erik Goeddel, Josh Edgin, and Jim Henderson.  Still, you have to question what Collins would have done if one of those guys were hit hard.  Would he have made one of them wear it, or would he have chased the unlikely comeback?  We’ll never be sure.  What we are sure of is Collins inability to play it one way might’ve cost the Mets what might’ve been a winnable game.

Syndergaard Needs to Make This His Last Start of the Year

As we saw with the Mets last year, your chances of winning in the postseason are greatly enhanced when you are able to properly set your rotation.  With the Mets clinching in plenty of time, they were able to make sure Jacob deGrom went against Clayton Kershaw in Game One of the NLDS, and they were ready to make sure Matt Harvey started a pivotal Game Three.  The Mets were also able to start Noah Syndergaard in Game Two and have him ready for a lights out relief appearance in the clinching Game Five.  If the Mets were not able to set their rotation just like that, it is very possible the Mets don’t make it out of the NLDS let alone make it all the way to the World Series.

In many ways, that is what is on the line for Syndergaard in his start against the Marlins tonight.

As it stands right now, the Mets have a half game lead over the Giants for the first Wild Card.  With the Mets having won the season series against the Giants, all they need to do is just tie the Giants for the first Wild Card to play the Wild Card Game at Citi Field.  The Mets also have a 1.5 game lead over the Cardinals for one of the two Wild Card spots.  All told, the Mets magic number to get a Wild Card spot is five. That number goes down to four if Syndergaard goes out there and wins tonight.  It could go even lower with a Cardinals loss.

The Mets need to get to that clincher as soon as possible.  With Syndergaard pitching tonight, his next scheduled start will be on Sunday, which is the regular season finale.  If Syndergaard is forced to make this start, that means he will be unavailable to start in Wednesday’s Wild Card Game.  If Syndergaard has to start on Sunday, it means the Mets have to choose between Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman on normal rest or Bartolo Colon on short rest to make the biggest start of the season.  Simply put, Syndergaard is the Mets best pitcher, and he is the man the Mets want on the mound for the Wild Card Game.

The Mets also need a big start from Syndergaard because the Mets need to help move on from the emotion that swept them up last night.  Both Yoenis Cespedes and Travis d’Arnaud were crying on the field.  It was a hard game for the Mets to play.  From an outsider’s perspective, it appeared that the emotions of the night got the better of them.  That is certainly understandable, and it would be understandable if it happened again tonight.  No one expects the pain from losing Jose Fernandez to go away just because the Marlins won a big game last night.  Still, the Mets have to move on and get back to playing winning baseball.  Syndergaard shutting down the Marlins will go a long way towards helping the team get back on the winning track.

Finally, Syndergaard needs a big start for himself.  In his last outing, he threw 99 pitches, and he couldn’t get out of the fourth inning against a terrible Braves team.  In that game, he allowed eight hits and walked three while allowing five runs in just 3.2 innings.  That’s not Syndergaard.  He needs to get back on the mound tonight and get back to being Syndergaard.  If he doesn’t, the Mets have no shot at winning the Wild Card Game or in making a deep run in the postseason.

There is a lot on the line in tonight’s start.  Syndergaard has to help rejuventate not just the Mets but also himself.  He has to do all that is necessary to make sure this is his last start of the regular season.  It’s a lot to put on his broad shoulders.  However, as we have seen in his young career, he can certainly handle it.

Mets Need to Move On and Get Back to Baseball

You understood the emotion from the Mets and the Marlins last night in the aftermath of Jose Fernandez‘s death.  From the beginning, you saw Giancarlo Stanton as the emotional leader of the clubhouse.  You saw Dee Gordon swinging from his shoe tops. On the other side, Yoenis Cespedes was crying while embracing the Marlins players.  Bartolo Colon just didn’t have it on a night he would later saw he wished it was Fernandez who got the win.  You heard Travis d’Arnaud talking about how he got choked up watching the Marlins, Gordon specifically, crying on the field.

You could understand the Mets not knowing how to deal with the moment.  No one ever truly knows how to deal with death, and even fewer people deal with it well.  That’s assuming you can ever truly deal with the loss of a friend, a family member, or a respected competitor.  Eventually however, you have to pull yourself up by your bootstraps, and you need to get back to your normal routine.  For the Mets, that is not just going out there and playing baseball.  No, that is going out there and beating up on a emotionally distraught team .500 baseball team that is no longer realistically in the hunt for a Wild Card spot.

It may sound cruel.  It may sound callous.  It may even seen unfeeling and disrespectful.  However, at some point, the Mets need to move on, and they need to get back to business as usual.  One to two days may not seem like a fair or realistic turnaround, but keep in mind, no one is rescheduling these games for a time when the Mets are emotionally capable of playing the Marlins.

No, the Mets have to go out there and put forth a better effort.  The Mets have to process their emotions better and just stick to playing baseball.  Yes, it’s hard, but that is what they are paid to do.  Better yet, that is how they can best honor Fernandez.  Fernandez was a guy that lived to beat up on the Mets.  In eight career starts, he was 3-0 against the Mets with a lifetime (boy does that word seem cruel right now) 1.34 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, and an 11.3 K/9.  He was this good against the Mets because he wanted to show the world that while the Mets had the heralded rotation of Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, and Zack Wheeler, it was Fernandez that was the best pitcher in the NL East, perhaps all of baseball.

There wasn’t just a competitive drive to Fernandez.  There was a joy in the competition.  He didn’t just want to beat you; he wanted to beat you at your best.  The Mets weren’t at their best last night.  They need to be tonight.  They need to do it to win the Wild Card.  They need to do it to honor Fernandez.

This Is How Braves Fans Must’ve Felt

Tonight, I got some sense of what it was like to be a Braves fan when Mike Piazza homered off Steve Karsay:

An emotional Dee Gordon, wearing a Jose Fernandez jersey just like the rest of his teammates, hit a leadoff home run off Bartolo Colon. As a fan of the game, you tip your cap, and you appreciate the moment. 

Starting with that home run, you got a sense the emotional Marlins team needed this game a little more, and they were meant to win it. 

Still, it was hard to watch as a Mets fan as the Mets have not yet clinched a Wild Card spot. It was hard to watch Colon throwing batting practice fastballs while seemingly getting squeezed by John Hirschbeck. I was hard to watch Ray Ramirez have to come visit him on the mound. That one was especially hard to watch. Thankfully, Colon brushed him off. 

All of Colon’s 2.1 innings were tough to watch. You had to question what Terry Collins was thinking leaving him out there to get knocked around to the tune of eight hits and seven runs. As Colon was fooling no one, he recorded no strikeouts. On the bright side, Gabriel Ynoa stabilized things for 1.2 innings before passing it off to Rafael Montero, who actually threw a scoreless inning. 

The Mets offense was a no show as well. They were shut down by Adam Conley, who pitched an emotional three innings before handing it off to the Marlins bullpen. Collectively, they down the Mets in the same way Fernandez, who was scheduled to pitch tonight, would have. 

The Mets had their chances. In the fifth, the Mets scored two runs on an Asdrubal Cabrera two RBI double. Who else would come through?  

In the sixth, the Mets loaded the bases with one out, but they would get nothing out of it. A Lucas Duda strikeout and Kelly Johnson ground out later, the Mets would come away happy. 

In the eighth, Duda did come through with a two out RBI single.  Alejandro De Aza would then strike out looking to end the rally. 

Ultimately, the Mets would lose 7-3 It was a hard night for all, including Yoenis Cespedes and the Mets:

https://t.co/8xWmNoIBbi

Even with the Mets fighting for the Wild Card, on this night, the Marlins just had a little more to play for:

Game Notes: Jay Bruce started over Michael Conforto. He was 1-4, and he misplayed a Justin Bour line drive into an RBI triple. 

Good Americans and Mets Fans Will Watch the Mets Game Over the Debate

In the grand scheme of things, the outcome of any presidential election is more important than one September baseball game.  However, this is an extremely important baseball game.

Right now, the Mets have a one game lead over the Giants and a 1.5 game lead over the Cardinals for the first Wild Card spot with only six games left on the schedule.  The Mets are sending their second best starting pitcher this year, Bartolo Colon, for a chose to either hold serve or increase their lead in the Wild Card standings.  The Mets are also playing the Marlins, who as we have seen in 2007 and 2008, have a tendency to ruin the Mets chances to making it to the postseason.  If you are a Mets fan, you absolutely need to watch this game.

You need to watch this game even if the Mets are getting blown out.  As we saw on Saturday, the Las Vegas 51s roster led the Mets to an almost improbable Mets victory.  You don’t want to be the fan that misses the moment of an incredible come from behind victory.  If the Mets are winning big, do you really want to be the person that misses an Asdrubal Cabrera home run or a Michael Conforto opposite field double?  Of course not.

Overall, do you really want to be the person who turned off a Mets game early?

With that in mind, DVR the debate.  Watch it after the Mets game, or watch it after the Reds-Cardinals game is over. If you really want, you can save the debate for Thursday, which is the Mets last off day of the season.  As long as you DVR the debate, it will always be there.  However, the chance to see the Mets make an improbable run to the postseason comes once every thirty years or so.  There’s going to be another debate in about two weeks, and there is going to be another presidential election in four years.

If you’re a true Mets fan and a good American, you’re watching the Mets game over the debate.

Jose Fernandez Was Supposed to Pitch Tonight

Sitting in Section 135, you get the opportunity to look into the Mets dugout.  While watching the game, I could only make out that the Mets had hung something up on the dugout wall.  As I would discover after the game, Yoenis Cespedes hung a Jose Fernandez Mets #16 jersey to honor his fellow countryman, defector, and baseball player:

His manager, Terry Collins was right there talking to his star while he hung something to honor a player who would die tragically at the age of 24.  It was just one of many Mets players who took time to express their grief over the loss over a competitor.

https://twitter.com/justinruggiano/status/780034931871186945

All over baseball, people mourned the loss of a unique talent and incredible talent that was gone too soon.  However, it was not just his talent that makes the loss that great.  After his death, you heard stories about how active he was in the community.  You saw how beloved he was by his teammates, competitors, and people who covered the game.  It is a rare sight to see Keith Hernandez breaking down and losing the ability to speak when talking about anything.

Personally, I was left with a loss for words having re-heard the story of how he defected.  After three failed attempts, and having been imprisoned for those attempts, Fernandez and his family set to cross the Gulf of Mexico for their freedom.  En route, Fernandez’s mother would go overboard.  At 15 years old, Fernandez jumped into those rough waters, and he used that strong right arm to save his mother’s life.  Upon hearing the news, many were left wondering where Fernandez’s savior was when that boat crashed.

As if this wasn’t tragic enough, there was learning the news that Fernandez was set to become a father.  Someone in Florida a child is going to be born, and that child is never going to get to know their father.  That child is only going to get to see the highlights on TV and is going to meet people who will tell him/her just what an incredible person and pitcher Jose Fernandez was. Worse yet, this all happened before Fernandez got his big payday.  In a couple of years, that child was going to be set for life with Fernandez reaching free agency.  Now who knows how much of a struggle a single mother and her child is going to have.  Hopefully, someone will reach out and care for Fernandez’s child much in the same way he reached out and touched the lives of others in his community.

With the shock and sudden loss, the Marlins cancelled yesterday’s game.  However, they will play tonight against the Mets.  They will play on a night that Fernandez was supposed to be taking the rubber against Bartolo Colon.  As it stands right now, the Marlins haven’t announced a starter to take Fernandez’s place.  It just seems fitting because no one could ever take his place.  No one else can be the young ace that Fernandez was.  No no else could have the impact on the community Fernandez did.  No one else could garner the respect of all of baseball in the way Fernandez did.  No one could ever replace him as the father to his child.

That’s the backdrop to tonight’s meeting between the Mets and the Marlins.  A once meaningful September game now seems devoid of its meaning without Fernandez.  On a night that he was supposed to don his number 16 jersey and take the mound, the Mets and Marlins are left hanging up his jersey in honor and remembrance of him.