Tonight marks Seth Lugo‘s last start in what has been an already incredible season for him. More than any other pitcher in the Mets organization, it was unlikely that Lugo would find himself in this position.
After 14 starts and a 6.93 ERA for AAA Las Vegas, the Mets organization decided Lugo should not be a starting pitcher. It was certainly understandable. The Mets major league team was flush with young starting pitching with Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz. Zack Wheeler was supposed to join them soon as he was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. If the Mets needed a spot starter, there was Logan Verrett, who did the job quite admirably last year, and Sean Gilmartin, who pitched well in the majors last season. When you also consider the Mets had well regarded pitching prospects in Gabriel Ynoa and Robert Gsellman, it was seemingly time to move Lugo to the bullpen. At 26 years old, it was probably his best chance to make it to the majors.
Lo and behold, that’s exactly how he would make it to the bigs. In his first major league appearance, he unleashed what was then the best curveball ever thrown in the Statcast Era. The pitch fooled Anthony Rizzo, a player who finished in the top four in MVP voting last year, is a three time All Star, and is hitting .305/.395/.579 with 23 homers and 72 RBI off right-handed pitching. Right then and there Lugo not only showed that his curveball may be the best pitch in the entire Mets system, but that he belongs in the major leagues.
Lugo would continue to show he was a major leauger in his next nine appearances. In those appearances, he pitched 17.0 innings with a 2.65 ERA and a 0.941 WHIP. In those appearances, he limited batters to a .185/.273/.222 batting line.
Then disaster struck – not to Lugo, but to the Mets starting rotation. With Lugo pitching well out of the bullpen, he soon found himself in the one place no one thought he was ever going to be. The starting rotation. In his first start, Lugo was much better than anyone ever imagined pitching 6.2 innings against the Giants. He was able to be economical with his pitches thereby allowing him to go deep into the game despite it being his first start in two months.
From there, Lugo has shown he belongs in the rotation. In Lugo’s seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.104 WHIP. When there are runners in scoring position, Lugo has shown the ability to bear down (some would call it luck) adding a few extra MPH to his fastball and relying a little more heavily on a curveball that generates both swings and misses as well as groundballs. As a result, batters are only hitting .163/.259/.233 off of him in those situations.
That’s where Lugo finds himself on his last start of the regular season. He’s taking the mound against the Marlins in the hopes of dropping the Mets magic number to clinch one of the Wild Card spots from four to three or two. He’s also making his case that he should pitch the Wild Card Game in the event Syndergaard has to pitch in the regular season finale on Sunday. He’s also making the case he should be the third starter over Gsellman this postseason.
He’s also making the case that he belongs in the long term plans of the New York Mets. He’s already done a terrific job of doing that so far. Another strong start here and a good postseason, it’ll be a guarantee.
Last season, on the eve of September, Sandy Alderson went out and obtained Addison Reed from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Up until that point in the season, Reed was having a poor year that included a demotion to AAA. In his 38 appearances with the Diamondbacks, he was 2-2 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.500 WHIP while only striking out 7.5 batters per nine innings. When Reed joined the Mets, he became a much different pitcher. In his 17 September appearances, he was 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA, a 1.043 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. With that, Reed locked down the seventh inning a Mets team and bullpen that would go all the way to the World Series.
Fernando Salas could be this year’s version of Addison Reed.
Like Reed, Alderson went out and got Salas right before the waiver trade deadline. Similar to Reed, Alderson pounced on a reliever with a good track record, had some closing experience, and was having a down year. In Salas’ 58 appearances with the Angels, he was 3-6 with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.260 WHIP. Now, he had been pitching better in August, but he still had a 3.48 ERA for the month. That’s a nice reliever to have, but that’s not the lockdown seventh inning reliever a team with World Series aspirations needs.
Well, like Reed the year before, Salas has become a better pitcher with the Mets. In his 14 appearances with the Mets, Salas has a sterling 1.88 ERA and a 0.628 WHIP. He has gone from striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings to striking out 9.4 batters per nine innings with the Mets. Salas is maintaining this high level with the Mets despite his throwing the fifth most innings in all of baseball in the month of September.
What is interesting bout Salas’ turnaround is that his stuff hasn’t changed all that much from the Angels to the Mets. He is getting slightly more movement, but it’s not so appreciable that he would become a completely different pitcher. He still rarely uses his slider, and he uses his changeup as an out pitch. Looking at these numbers, you would expect a regression. However, there is something different Salas is doing that is not indicated here that gives you hope this tremendous stretch is for real. He’s throwing strikes.
Salas went from walking 3.0 batters per nine innings this year with the Angels to not walking anyone with the Mets. The reason is Salas is throwing more strikes. He’s getting into the games, establishing his fastball quickly, and he is pounding the zone.
A large part of this is Salas making a concerted effort to throw more strikes. Another part of the reason is the difference between the Mets catchers and the Angels catchers. Again, Travis d’Arnaud has shown himself to be one of the better pitch framers in all of baseball. Rene Rivera is also having a better season in that respect than he has had in year’s past. As for the Angels catchers Carlos Perez and Jeff Bandy, they have not been good pitch framers at all this season. The difference between the two sets of catchers is a big one. It is the difference between falling behind early in the count allowing you to set up a batter for a strikeout to trying to get a pitch over so you don’t issue a free pass. It is the difference between a called strike three and a batter getting a free pass.
Overall, Salas has been the beneficiary of the Mets catchers exceptional pitch framing. The Mets have been the beneficiaries of Salas’ pitching. With him, the Mets have a pitcher that has allowed them to ease off the overworked Reed and Jeurys Familia down the stretch. With him, the Mets have a terrific 7-8-9 trio to close out important games.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.
When the score was 4-1, you understood Terry Collins keeping his big guys in the game. However, why are the Mets keeping them in during a 9-1 game?
Asdrubal Cabrera is so banged up that he has taken to sliding to stop his momentum whenever he can. Anytime you can get him off the field and give him some rest, you need to do it. Getting that rest is more important than him hitting that ninth inning single that helped turn a 9-1 lead into a 12-1 lead.
Cabrera’s single came after a Jose Reyes base hit. Reyes remained in the game despite his tripping over second on his eighth inning double. Rather than take him out there or after the inning, he was left to finish the game.
The Mets still had Gavin Cecchini, Eric Campbell, and Matt Reynolds on the bench. They were all quite capable of playing an inning or two to protect a 9-1 lead. They’re especially capable when the Mets are going to use Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia in the game.
The decision was even more baffling when you consider the Mets announced Wilmer Flores is still unable to take batting practice. Remember Flores isn’t playing because Tim Teufel is a poor third base coach and because Collins didn’t think about pinch running for a player slower than molasses.
Collins apparently learned nothing from the Flores situation. It didn’t hurt the Mets last night, but as we have seen, it can’t hurt you at any given moment. Y
After last night, the Mets needed to get things back on track lest they once again miss the playoffs due to them losing games to the Marlins. Things didn’t get off to a good start with Dee Gordon hitting a leadoff single, stealing second, and coming home on a Marcell Ozuna single.
Gordon’s stolen base would be the 48th stolen base against Noah Syndergaard. This was about as poor a start as you could expect. After that Syndergaard would get locked in.
Syndergaard would go six innings allowing five hits, one earned, and no walks with eight strikeouts. It’s exactly the type of start both he and the Mets needed.
The Mets quickly claimed the lead off Tom Koehler, who the Mets hit very well. In the second, Jay Bruce continued his hot hitting with a two run homer. He would go 2-5 with a run, two RBI, and a homer.
In the third, Yoenis Cespedes hit a monster two run homer over the “Home Run Sculpture.”
Absolutely CRUSHED‼️ ? pic.twitter.com/hZTgZFtPAu
— New York Mets (@Mets) September 28, 2016
This marked the first time both Bruce and Cespedes homered in the same game for the Mets.
The Mets would have a 4-1 lead, and Don Mattingly would do all he could do to keep the Marlins in the game making seven pitching changes. It worked until the eighth inning.
The Mets put a huge five spot on the board blowing the game wide open. After the Marlins intentionally walked Cespedes to load the bases, Curtis Granderson hit a two RBI single making it 6-1.
Bruce then singled to reload the bases, and then with two outs, Lucas Duda got his biggest hit since being activated from the disabled list with a bases clearing double. Duda has been sharper than expected in his return, but this was his best game. On the night, he was 2-3 with three RBI, two walks (one intentional), and the double.
As if things weren’t good enough with a 9– 1 lead, the Mets scored three in the top of the ninth to make it 12-1. The bases were again loaded. Michael Conforto hit an RBI force out, and Granderson hit a RBI double to deep center. It was a huge night for Granderson with him going 2-4 with two runs, three RBI, two walks, and a double.
The final run was scored on a Juan Lagares sacrifice fly. It was the first time Lagares swung the bat at a pitch since returning from surgery to repair a torn tendon in his left thumb.
Tonight, everything was clicking, and the Mets took care of business. Their magic number is now four.
Game Notes: Syndergaard was 2-3 at the plate. Jose Reyes was 3-6 with two runs and a double. Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia each pitched an inning after not having pitched in four days.