Is Now the Time to Extend Matt Harvey?

Back in 2014, Jaime Garcia had surgery to have a rib removed in order to alleviate his thoracic outlet syndrome.  He came back about a year after the surgery was performed, and he had a strong 2015 season going 10-6 with a 2.43 ERA and a 1.049 WHIP in 20 starts.  So far this year, he has struggled a bit with a 7-6 record with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.363 WHIP in 19 starts.  On the whole, it would be fair to say Garcia is a success story for players who have had surgery to alleviate their thoracic outlet syndrome.

His former Cardinals teammate, Chris Carpenter, was not as lucky.  He would have the surgery in 2012, and he would never be able to return.  Now, there are a world of differences between Garcia and Carpenter, and this is probably too simplistic a conclusion, but overall the Cardinals franchise has had a 50% success rate in pitchers returning from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery.

Fact of the matter is, we still don’t know enough to know how a pitcher will return from the surgery.  For every Kenny Rogers, there is a Jeremy Bonderman.  There is the Garcias and the Matt Harrisons of the world who have returned to initially pitch well after the surgery only to see their future performance regress.  Overall, there are a lot of question marks about not only how successful the surgery is in restoring a pitcher to full health, but also what the lasting effects of the surgery is.  This is the point where Matt Harvey is right now.

With Harvey having the surgery, he missed the remainder of the 2016 season, but really he missed more.  Harvey wasn’t right throughout the 2016 season.  Accordingly, the Mets missed out on a real chance to challenge for the division, and for his part, Harvey missed out on his chance to build off of a strong 2015 season that culminated in his great Game 5 World Series start.  While the surgery was successful, and Harvey has been reportedly been long tossing and looks ready to start the 2017 season.  What Harvey will be in 2017 still remains a mystery.

In 2013, Harvey helped make the Mets a much more relevant franchise being a Cy Young contender and staring the All Star Game before his succumbing to a UCL tear requiring Tommy John surgery.  Last year, Harvey was part of a starting rotation that led the Mets to not only winning the National League East, but also the pennant.  The Mets are a better team with him in the rotation, and they will be a better team going forward with a healthy Harvey in the fold.  The question is not only if he will be healthy, but also for how long will he be effective?  These are the questions hanging over the heads of both Harvey and the Mets organization.

The Mets could let Harvey work his way back from the surgery and hopefully return to form ext year when he will be 28 years old.  From there, they could let him pitch for a year and a half before determining whether they want to open the pocketbooks to make Harvey the pitcher they want to extend.  It might be the prudent way to go.  However, it could also prove to be the expensive route as well.

Realistically speaking, there may be no better opportunity for the Mets to discuss an extension with Harvey.  Given his previous comments on the matter and the uncertainty of his future, Harvey may be more open to a contract extension now than he ever was or will ever be.  Scott Boras may not prove to be an impediment as evidenced by the Stephen Strasburg extension with the Washington Nationals.  There may be an opportunity here.

As we have seen, the strength of this Mets team is pitching.  When healthy, the rotation of Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, and Steven Matz helps overcome the Mets offensive issues.  This is a rotation that helped the Mets go to the World Series last year.  However, this is a rotation that may ultimately need to be broken up as arbitration and free agency may prove too costly to keep them all together.  If you make a move on Harvey now, you would most likely get him at a discount thereby allowing you to allocate that money towards a deGrom or a Syndergaard.  With that in mind, the Mets may be best suited to rolling the dice and making a move to keep Harvey for the long term.

Mets Final Season Grades – Opening Day Rotation

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the sixth set of grades, here are the Mets Opening Day Rotation:

Matt Harvey D

By now, it is readily apparent Harvey never should have pitched in 2016.  First, there was the blood clots in his bladder that led to him having an abbreviated Spring Training.  Then, it was his complaining about his mechanics.  He just wasn’t himself on the mound, and the Mets began to have discussions about sending him down.  Harvey calmed those concerns a bit by carrying a no-hitter into the fifth against the White Sox.

Even with that start, there was something not quite right with Harvey.  As it turns out, he needed season ending surgery to remove a rib to address his thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS).  The TOS was the main culprit for Harvey going 4-10 with a 4.86 ERA and a 1.468 WHIP.  With Harvey having the surgery, we can expect hi to get back to his dominant form instead of the struggling pitcher we saw in 2016.

Jacob deGrom B

Like Harvey, deGrom had some issues of his own.  He had an abbreviate Spring Training due to his newborn son’s health issues.  He had an oblique injury that robbed him of some velocity and movement.  Finally, he had to have season ending surgery himself to address a nerve irritation that was preventing him from pitching.

Ultimately, deGrom adapted to the reduced velocity and movement by locating, and he dominated in day games like he always has.  However, deGrom was not up for the big game like we saw from him.  That was prevalent in an August match-up against Madison Bumgarner that saw both pitchers fail to live up to the pitcher’s duel billing.  In reality, the nerve issue was too much for him towards the end of the season.

Still, it was a good season for deGrom.  It just wasn’t the one we expected from him after he emerged as the Mets ace in 2015.  Overall, deGrom made 24 starts going 7-8 with a 3.04 ERA and a 1.203 WHIP.  He should be much better next season.

Noah Syndergaard A

During the second game of the season, Syndergaard showed off a 95 MPH slider.  With that he announced to the world, he was taking the next step forward in a season where he would emerge as the Mets ace.  He would also emerge as a Cy Young candidate.  Syndergaard might have won the Cy Young award too had it not been for the bone spurs he had to learn to pitch with during the middle of the season.

Dealing with the bone spurs was not the only challenges Syndergaard overcame.  He also had to address how he held runners on base.  Gradually throughout the season, and with some help with Rene Rivera behind the plate, he addressed that issue to the point where teams were no longer running at will against him.  He also had to adapt to being able to carry an injury plagued pitching staff.  One of the main things lost in the season was at the end of the year, Syndergaard was really all the Mets had left in the rotation.  He handled the pressure of not just being an ace, but also being the Mets best chance of winning games.  That was most prevalent when he threw seven shutout innings in a winner-take-all Wild Card Game.

For the season, Syndergaard was 14-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a 1.149 WHIP.  He was the league leader in FIP and home runs allowed per nine innings.  Lost in those numbers was a two home run game in Los Angeles and his getting thrown out of a game for throwing at Chase Utley.  It was an eventful year that saw Syndergaard take the next step.  It will be fascinating to see him improve even more next year.

Steven Matz C

Matz’s season was reminiscent of a scene in the the movie Major League.  Announcer Harry Doyle stated as Willie MaysBar Hayes stepped up to the plate that many say you can tell a lot about how a season is going to go based upon the team’s first at-bat of the season.  Well, if you judged by Matz’s first start of the season, you knew it was going to be a rough year for him.

In his first start, Matz couldn’t get out of the second inning after allowing seven runs to the Marlins.  To his credit, Matz would move past that start, and he would start putting together a season worthy of Rookie of the Year consideration.  In fact, by the end of May, Matz would lower his ERA from the gaudy 37.80 it was during his first start all the way down to 2.28.  It was around this time that Matz began dealing with bone spurs in his elbow that changed the way he pitched.

He couldn’t utilize his slider or breaking pitches as often as it caused him pain.  Accordingly, he was less effective on the mound, and he would pitch to a 4.21 ERA until August.  At that point, Matz just couldn’t do it physically anymore.  He needed season ending surgery to remove what was described as a massive bone spur.  The surgery put an end to what was an uneven season from him.

Overall, Matz made 22 starts going 9-8 with a 3.40 ERA and a 1.209 WHIP.  During the season, he did much to confirm people’s preconceived notions about him.  If you saw him as a possible future ace to join an elite rotation, you saw definitive glimpses of that.  If you saw him as an injury prone pitcher that will never put it together, you saw that as well.  Right now, it is difficult to glean exactly what Matz is and what he will be as a major leaguer.  The 2017 should go a long way on that front.

Bartolo Colon B+

Colon was supposed to be removed from the rotation by the All Star Break.  Instead, he was the only pitcher who didn’t need to skip a start this season.  With the Mets rotation getting decimated by injuries throughout the season, they needed a pitcher like Colon to go out there and not only eat innings, but also to be a reliable pitcher when he took the mound.  Colon responded by having his best year as a Met.

The innings was only part of the Colon story.  In April, he tied Pedro Martinez on the all-time wins list meaning he has won the second most games by a Dominican born pitcher.  Colon would then pass Pedro in May.  Also in May, Colon would actually hit a home run off of James Shields.  These are but a few of the highlights that also included Colon being the best defensive pitcher this season.  It was your typical Colon roller coaster ride that fans seemed to love with the exception being that he actually pitched well this season.

Overall, Colon made 33 starts and one relief appearance going 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA and a 1.210 WHIP.  He led the majors with the fewest walks per nine innings.  It was the type of season that will help fans remember him fondly when he is pitching for the Braves next season.

Zack Wheeler Incomplete

At the Carlos Gomez trade fell through, Wheeler famously called Sandy Alderson and asked him not to trade him.  The rehabbing pitcher wanted to be a part of a Mets team that was poised to win again in 2016.  It didn’t happen as he did not throw one pitch for the Mets in 2016.

Wheeler’s rehab was plagued with setbacks.  First, he needed surgery to remove an undissolved stitch.  He then experienced elbow discomfort which turned out to be an irritated nerve requiring a cortisone shot.  In August, he was finally able to start facing batters again, and he again experienced elbow discomfort which turned out to be a strained flexor tendon.  With that his season was over before it ever began.

At this point, no one quite knows what to make of Wheeler.  He hasn’t pitched in two seasons, has had two surgeries, and has had a number of elbow issues.  While all indications are that he will be ready to start the 2017, we are at the point that we will believe it when we see it.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

The Non-Cespedes Mets Outfield Options

With reports that the Mets do not expect they will be able to re-sign Yoenis Cespedes, and that was before Neil Walker accepted the $17.2 million qualifying offer, the question is how do you replace the irreplaceable?  Here are some options:

FREE AGENTS

Carlos Gomez

As explained in an earlier MMO article, a rejuvenated Gomez could help the Mets by continuing to play a good center field and by providing another right-handed bat in what protects to be a heavy left-handed Mets lineup.

Ian Desmond

After not getting a significant contract offer with a qualifying offer attached to him, he bet on himself taking a one year $8 million deal from the Texas Rangers.

Desmond was an All Star who hit .285/.335/.446 with 29 doubles, 22 homers, and 85 RBI.   However, Desmond does have some red flags:

  1. He rated below average defensively in center field (-4.5 UZR);
  2. He hit only .269/.324/.429 off right-handed pitching; H
  3. He fell apart in the second half hitting .237/.283/.347; H
  4. He hit .330/.368/.497 at hitter friendly Ballpark at Arlington and .241/.305/.398 in the road; and
  5. He may get a qualifying offer.

Matt Holliday

Infamously, the Mets chose Jason Bay over him heading in the 2009 offseason. Bay would struggle immensely at Citi Field while Holliday would win a World Series with the Cardinals.

While Holliday has been injury prone the past few years, he has still hit. He has always been an average to below average left fielder, and the 37 year old is coming off his worst year out there. It is part of the reason he began transitioning to first base with the Cardinals. If the Mets were to sign him, he could fulfill the role the Mets envisioned Michael Cuddyer would have.

Jose Bautista

Of all the available free agents, Bautista is the one who is best suited to replicate the offensive production Cespedes provided the Mets.  Over the past three seasons, Bautista has hit .259/.383/.508 while averaging 32 homers and 95 RBI.  If you are looking for a difference maker in the lineup, Bautista fits the bill.

However, there are some reason to be hesitant to sign Bautista.  First, he is a 36 year old coming off his worst season since 2009 (as per OPS+).  Second, he has been in decline as an outfielder over the past three seasons.  Third and most importantly, he is going to be expensive.  It is anticipated Bautista will received a qualifying offer, and he reportedly wants 5 years $150 million in free agency.

Mark Trumbo

Trumbo certainly enjoyed hitting at Camden Yards for a full season.  Trumbo went from a career .251/.301/.460 hitter who averaged 26 homers to a .256/.316/.533 hitter who led the majors with 47 homers.  Naturally, when there is a jump like that with a player, there are a number of reasons why a team like the Mets should shy away.

Throughout his career, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching.  This isn’t exactly appealing when you consider he would be joining an outfield with three other left-handed hitters.  Furthermore, he did most of his damage this past season at Camden Yards showing much of his career year was generated by his home ballpark.  Lastly, Trumbo is really a 1B/DH masquerading as an outfielder.

Carlos Beltran

Reuniting with Beltran certainly seems like it would be a stretch considering he has already stated his intentions that he wants to DH next year, and he wants to return to the Texas Rangers.  It is certainly understandable considering he will be 40 next season, and he has been a below average right fielder the past three years.

Still, Beltran can his positive attributes.  Over the past three years, Beltran has hit .271/.327/.468 while averaging 21 homers and 70 RBI.  We know from his time with the Mets, he is great in the clubhouse, and he helps younger players with the preparation and conditioning aspect of the game.  It is something Beltran did with both David Wright and Jose Reyes immediately upon joining the Mets.  Finally, Beltran is one of the greatest postseason hitters of all time.  For a team with World Series aspirations, Beltran could help on that front.

THE TIGERS

Justin Upton

As luck would have it, the Padres rejected the Mets offer of Michael Fulmer for Upton leading the Mets to offer him in exchange for Cespedes.  Once again, the Tigers are looking to trade an outfielder, and the Mets may have interest in a player like Upton.

Upton has always been a good hitter in his major league career.  In his nine years as a starter, he is a .270/.349/.476 hitter who averages 24 homers and 77 RBI in his nine years as a starter.  Generally speaking, he has never been a guy that will hurt you in the outfield even if he is coming off a poor year offensively.  Between his offense, his defense, and his friendship with Wright, you could make a very good case why the Mets should purse Upton.

There is also over $110 million reasons why you would want to avoid Upton.  If Upton were not to exercise he opt out clause, which he would use after the 2017 season, the Mets would be on the hook for the full amount of the remaining $110.625 million remaining on his contract.  Typically speaking, the Mets have not shown the interest in adding contract like that to the payroll.

Now, Upton could also opt out of his contract, which would put the Mets in the same position as they are this offseason.  They will likely be unable to re-sign him, and in return, all they can recoup for him is a compensatory first round draft pick.  Compensatory draft picks are great when they become players like Fulmer who are real assets that can help the major league team.  They are also suspect when they become players like Anthony Kay, who failed a physical and needs Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a professional pitch.

J.D. Martinez

Over the last three seasons, Martinez has blossomed into a terrific hitter.  In Detroit, he has hit .299/.357/.540 while averaging 28 homers and 82 RBI.  Up until this year, he has also been a solid outfielder.  You can do a lot worse than Martinez in trying to replace Cespedes.

That’s part of the reason why he will be difficult to obtain.  Next year is the final year of his contract that pays him $11.75 million.  While the Tigers are looking to shed payroll, they will likely seek a king’s ransom in exchange for a player that has a very favorable contract for next season.  With the Mets having traded away some many big pieces over the past two seasons, and with them being reluctant to trade players like Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith, it is hard to see them pulling off a trade for a cheap outfielder who has terrific production.

INTERNAL OPTIONS

As it stands right now, the Mets have two corner outfielders in Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson who are coming off 30 home run seasons.  With them at the corners, it is possible the Mets feel as if they are already set in left and right field even with one of them having to change positions.

The Mets may even have more faith in their outfield as is with Michael Conforto.  In his young career, he has shown the Mets glimpses of his being a brilliant hitter.  He was undaunted as a rookie in 2015.  He was perhaps the best hitter in baseball in April 2016.  He responded to a demotion after a wrist injury and his slumping by hitting .493/.541/.821 with six homers and 13 RBI in 17 August games in AAA.  With Conforto having shown glimpses of what his true talent level is, and with him showing the willingness to put in the work, the Mets may very well gamble on Conforto in 2017.

The fact that Granderson and Conforto can also play center field gives the Mets options on a game to game basis.  It allows them to put all three out there, and it allows them to sit one for rest or to avoid a tough left-handed pitcher to get Lagares’ glove in the outfield.  Overall, the Mets may very well stay internal to replace Cespedes’ production.  It is a gamble, and that gamble may be the difference between going to the postseason or staying home in 2017.

Editor’s Note: a version of this article was first published on Mets Merized Online

Mets Final Season Grades – Outfielders

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the fifth set of grades, here are the Mets outfielders:

Yoenis Cespedes B+

Is it possible for a player to have a great season, but you wanted just a little more from him?  Overall, Cespedes had one of the great statistical seasons from a Mets outfielder with him hitting .280/.354/.530 with 25 doubles, one triple, 31 homers, and 86 RBI.  For most of the season, Cespedes was everything you could have expected from him.

Still, there were other points where he wasn’t and much of that was due to the injured quad he tried to play through much of the season.  The quad injury was a major reason his numbers were slightly below where you expected they would be.  It was also a reason for his subpar defense this season.  Even when healthy, he was a disaster in center as evidenced by his -10.6 UZR and his -7 DRS.  Eventually, his quad left Cespedes telling the Mets he could no longer play center (but not golf), and that he needed to go back to left field.  In left, Cespedes was a good defender, but he wasn’t at the Gold Glove level he usually is.

However, despite all the negatives you could point out, Cespedes was still a great player for the Mets in 2016, and he was a major contributor for a team that returned to the postseason.  He proved his 2015 stretch with the Mets was no fluke.  He showed everyone why the Mets need to bring him back next year.

Michael Conforto D

This was supposed to be the year Conforto took off and became a star.  It seemed like it was happening in April when he hit .365/.442/.676 with 11 doubles, four homers, and 18 RBI while leading the major leagues in hard hit ball rate.  It was all coming together until it didn’t.

The rest of Conforto’s season was marred by slumps, injury, and multiple demotions.  After April, Conforto would only hit .174/.267/.330 with 10 doubles, one triple, eight homers, and 24 RBI.  There are a million different reasons we can use to explain these numbers away including his injuries and the very poor way both the Mets and Terry Collins handled him.  Looking at his AAA numbers, the injuries and mishandling of him look more like good reasons than they do excuses.

However, no matter the reason, Conforto still only hit .220/.310/.414 with 21 doubles, one triple, 12 homers, and 42 RBI.  Those are disappointing numbers for a young player that should be a star in this league.  Conforto did work hard all year, made no excuses, and he seems better off for it.  As a result, we should see more of the April Conforto in 2017.

Curtis Granderson C

It is really hard to say a player who became the oldest Met to ever hit 30 homers in a season had a disappointing year, but Granderson did have a disappointing year.  He went from the Mets MVP to a guy hitting .237/.335/.464.  Despite the 30 homers, he only had 59 RBI.  Although, it should be noted he spent most of the year as the leadoff hitter.  He also regressed in the field going from a Gold Glove caliber player to a subpar defensive player.

On the positive side, he did hit 30 homers, and he had a great September helping the Mets drive to claim the top Wild Card spot.  He was willing to do anything to help the team including playing center field when Cespedes was no longer able to do so.  He was a leader on the team, and he deservedly won the Roberto Clemente Award.  The organization is better for having a person like Granderson.  The real question is whether the team will be better for having a player like Granderson around next year.

Jay Bruce D+

Up until the last week and a half of the season it looked like the Bruce acquisition was going to be an unmitigated disaster.  In Bruce’s first 42 games with the Mets, he hit .174/.252/.285 with four doubles, four homers, and 11 RBI.  He went from the major league leader in RBI to finding himself outside the Top 10.  He went from a career year to a guy completely lost at the plate.  To boot, he wasn’t that good in the field either.

During the stretch drive, he seemed to adapt to playing in New York, and he started to hit much better.  In his final eight games, he hit .480/.536/1.000 with a double, four homers, and eight RBI.  That stretch made his overall Mets numbers seem a little better with him hitting .219/.294/.391 with five doubles, eight homers, and 19 RBI.  Certainly, both Bruce and the Mets were hoping for better production than that.  Hopefully, he provides it in 2017.

Juan Lagares B-

Lagares’ value has been and will always be with his glove, and that is why his 2016 season was mostly a success.  Despite Lagares being limited to 68 games in center field due to his being a platoon player and his ligament injury, he was still Top Five in the National League in DRS.  If Lagares had played more games, it is safe to assume he would’ve won his second Gold Glove.

However, Lagares is not going to get that type of opportunity because of his offense.  In 79 games, Lagares hit .239/.301/.380 with seven doubles, two triples, three homers, and nine RBI.  It is hard justifying keeping that bat in the lineup no matter how good your defense is.  It is even harder when you consider the struggles the Mets had scoring runs last season.  It should be noted that Lagares’ role was as a platoon player and a late defensive replacement.  While he didn’t hit well in 2016, he was great defensively.  We should expect more of the same next year.

Alejandro De Aza C-

In a short period of time, De Aza went from the probable Opening Day center fielder to the fifth outfielder without an inning of baseball even being played.  The Mets brought him here to platoon with Lagares, and with the unexpected Cespedes signing, De Aza really found himself without a role.

As a a result, he really struggled to start the year.  Not only was he struggling at the plate, but Collins was questioning his effort level.  Eventually, De Aza had a great July, and he turned his season around.  From there, he became an effective bench player, and he capably played all three outfield positions.  Overall, he hit .205/.297/.321 with nine doubles, six homers, and 25 RBI.  Those numbers were so low because that is how bad he was in the beginning of the year.  Ultimately, it was a rough year for what should prove to be De Aza’s only year as a Met.

Brandon Nimmo B+

The biggest beneficiary of Conforto’s struggles was Nimmo.  With Conforto being sent down, Nimmo got his chance to play in the major leauges, and he made the most of it.  In 32 games, Nimmo hit .274/.338/.329 with one double, a long home run, and six RBI.  Mostly, the 23 year old former first round draft pick showed the Mets he could very well be a part of the future of this organization.

Justin Ruggiano Inc

With his removal from the 40 man roster, Ruggiano’s Mets career lasted all of 22 plate appearances.  In those 22 plate appearances he did hit .350/.409/.650 with two homers and six RBI.  In that mix was a grand slam he hit off of Madison Bumgarner, which only serves to highlight how much the Mets missed a guy who only had 22 plate appearances for them in the 2016 season.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links.

Jose Reyes Is A Utility Player

Right after the season was over, the Mets did the smart thing, and they picked up Jose Reyes option for the 2017 season.  Reyes is a player that gives the Mets depth, and he provides insurance for some key positions.

Should David Wright go down again, we saw Reyes can handle playing third base.  Should Asdrubal Cabrera have another injury plagued year, Reyes can spell him on a number of days in order to keep Cabrera fresh.  With an offseason to work on it, Reyes can also make himself a capable defender at second base and quite possibly the outfield.  Second base is interesting because the Mets do not know if Neil Walker can return or what Walker could provide with a surgically repaired back.  With that in mind, there has been discussion about Reyes possibly being the everyday second baseman.  He shouldn’t.

The main reason is Reyes has essentially become a much faster with less power version of Wilmer Flores at the plate.

Both players absolutely maul left-handed pitching while they are feeble hitters from the right-hand side of the plate.  Without telling you who was who, here are their splits from the 2016 season:

vs. RHP vs. LHP
Player A .232/.289/.353 .340/.383/.710
Player B .239/.293/.371 .380/.456/.740

To show this is part of a larger trend, here are the numbers from the 2015 season as well:

vs. RHP vs. LHP
Player A .251/.279/.358 .310/.355/.600
Player B .275/.309/.374 .273/.311/.388

If you had trouble deciphering which one was Reyes and which one was Flores that is the point.  If you thought Player A was Flores and Player B was Reyes, you were correct.  After reviewing the numbers, wouldn’t it be fair to say that at least offensively Flores has become the better player?

Now, there are some caveats to this.  In 2015, Reyes only played in 116 games due to injury and trade.  In 2016, he only played in 60 games due to his suspension and his eventual release.  When you have smaller sample sizes, you tend to see greater fluctuations in the statistics.  It is an important caveat when you consider Reyes has largely been platoon neutral in his career.  Naturally, you would want to rely upon the splits from a player’s entire 14 year career than from two abbreviated seasons.

However, you cannot ignore trends, especially trends from a player that is going to be turning 34 next season.  In his four years since leaving the Mets, Reyes has been a .286/.334/.409 hitter who has averaged 29 doubles, four triples, nine homers, and 50 RBI with 27 stolen bases a season.  Compare that to the .292/.341/.441 hitter who averaged 25 doubles, 11 triples, nine homers, and 47 RBI with 41 stolen bases during Reyes’ first tour of duty with the Mets.  Fact is, Reyes is a different player than the one we knew.

And no, this isn’t a case of Reyes being a different player in New York.  In his only year with the Marlins, he hit .287/.347/.433 with 37 doubles, 12 triples, 11 homers, and 57 RBI with 40 stolen bases.  In Reyes’ first year with the Blue Jays, he hit .296/.353/.427 with 20 doubles, no triples, 1o homers, 37 RBI, and 15 stolen bases.  That 2013 season with the Blue Jays was an injured plagued one for Reyes as he only played in 93 games.  He hasn’t been the same player after that season becoming just a .279/.321/.400 hitter in the three subsequent years.

Overall, Reyes is still a talented player that has a lot to offer a team.  However, Reyes no longer has the skills that made him an All Star caliber player.  While he still has speed, he no longer has elite speed.  While he can play the middle infield, he no longer has the range he once had.  While he can still hit for some power, he no longer has the ability to consistently get on base.  Long story short, Reyes is a player in decline.  It’s what happens to players in their mid 30s.

Despite the decline, Reyes should be a valuable contributor to the Mets in 2017.  His ability to play across the diamond and use his speed is a real asset.  Still, you will get diminishing returns playing him everyday.  You will notice the low OBP and his platoon splits.  This is why Reyes needs to be a utility player for the Mets next season.

 

Chopsticks Will Help Your Toddler’s Development

As a kid, I remember my father teaching me to use chopsticks.  As he told me, he learned first in Vietnam, and then he mastered it when he worked in the city after the war.  He would go to Chinatown for lunch, and they would provide you with chopsticks to eat your lunch.  It was a sink or swim situation (unless you wanted to use your hands).

It didn’t take much time for me to master using chopsticks.  I was able to eat my beef with broccoli using them.  I was also able to eat my rice with them.  As I become more and more adept, I began to pass egg rolls, the soy sauce container, and various other items on the kitchen table using them.  I’m very thankful that I learned how to use them at a young age.

At some point in your life, you are going to go to a sushi restaurant, or your job is going to provide sushi at one of its functions.  In either scenario, you do not want to be the person who is asking for the fork and knife to eat your food.  It’s embarrassing, especially when you consider that by the time you reach adulthood you are almost expected to be able to use chopsticks.

It is one of the many reasons I have been teaching my son to use chopsticks.  When he was an infant, I got him his own pair of chopsticks.  As it turns out, it is really not necessary to get them because sushi and Chinese restaurants routinely carry chopsticks for children.  Still, it is not a bad idea to get your own so your child can learn with their own pair, and you can make sure the chopsticks your child eats with is absolutely clean.

Once my son was able to eat solid foods, we put the chopsticks in his hand when we ate sushi (sweet potato roll for him) just like we put the spoon in his hand when he would eat eggs or sweet potatoes.  The idea was to get him accustomed to using them:

chopsticks

As time progressed, he has become more and more adept at using them.  Now he is at the point where he is able to feed himself just as well as he can with a knife and a fork if we give him a pair of chopsticks:

 

Other than the sheer amazement we see from people as a two year old is able to eat his dinner using a pair of chopsticks, and the great picture opportunities, there are a number of reasons why using the chopsticks has been good for own son’s development.

First, it helps your child improve his hand-eye coordination as well as their hand strength.  Additionally, at an age where most children struggle to show more two or three fingers at once, the chopsticks help with a child’s finger manipulation.  This is a long way of saying the use of chopsticks will help your child’s fine motor skills.  Also, keep in mind, that when the time comes, the very same skills that are honed using chopsticks are going to be the very same skills needed when it comes time to learn how to write (which really isn’t that far away).

With my son, we noticed two immediate things when he started to use chopsticks.  First, he showed a clear hand dominance.  Routinely, he would go to the right hand to use the chopsticks.  Second, and most importantly, we began to see him grip and use crayons differently.  Instead of grabbing the crayon in a fist, he was able to grip the crayon like you would a pencil.  He was able to do it with ease, and when he started drawing, there was more of a purposeful direction in what he was doing (not that the results looked much different).  Generally speaking, we his fine motor skills develop at a more rapid pace than they were before he used chopsticks.

Another added benefit is he finds using chopsticks to be fun.  With that, he is more eager to sit down and eat at times when we are using chopsticks.  As parents know, sometimes getting your child to sit down to eat is a seemingly unnecessary fight.  Anything that prevents that fight is a win.

Overall, there are many benefits to your toddler learning to use chopsticks, and on occasion, the use of chopsticks to eat (or play games) should be encouraged.

Mets Final Season Grades – Utility Players

Throughout the season, I attempted to grade the different Mets players performances for each month of the season. In determining the year end grades, the aggregate of the monthly grades given was considered, but it wasn’t conclusive.  For example, one player’s awful month could be more than offset by having an incredible month.  Also, those decisions were made in the heat of the moment.  There has been a cooling off period in giving these finals grades, and with that, there is time for reflection.  It should also be noted the Wild Card Game did have some impact on these grades as that game was part of the story of the 2016 Mets.  Overall, the final grades assessed considered the monthly grades, but also took into account that player(s) overall impact on the Mets season (good or bad).    For the fourth set of grades, here are the Mets utility players:

Wilmer Flores B

Early on in the season, Flores mostly struggled with getting limited playing time.  It was difficult cracking into the starting lineup when Neil Walker, David Wright, and Asdrubal Cabrera playing well in April.  As the season progressed, and the Mets became more and more injured, notably Wright and Lucas Duda, Flores was needed, and he really stepped up.

Where Flores really thrived was being used as a platoon option against left-handed pitching.  Against lefties, Flores would hit an astounding .340/.383/.710 with four doubles, 11 homers, and 28 RBI.  If you extrapolated those numbers of the course of a full 162 game season, Flores would’ve hit 36 homers and 93 RBI.  That would have made him the best hitter in the Mets lineup this season.  However, Flores’ numbers were nowhere near that as he struggled against right-handed pitching hitting .232/.289/.353 with 10 doubles, five homers, and 21 RBI.  It should be noted Flores had 107 plate appearances against lefties and 228 plate appearances against righties.

For the season, Flores hit .267/.319/.469 with 14 doubles, 16 homers, and 49 RBI.  Flores’ numbers were an upgrade over his 2015 numbers.  Given how he has progressed each year over his career, and the fact that he is only 25 years old, we should see an improved Flores at the plate in 2017.

Even with some optimism, there is some doubt.  Despite his improvement at the plate, he still didn’t walk enough, and he doesn’t hit right-handed pitching enough to play everyday.  While he made marked improvements at shortstop as the 2015 season progressed, Flores regressed there defensively in 2016.  In fact, Flores did not play all that well defensively at any position; although, he did show some promise at first base.

Part of the reason for Flores foibles could be he’s prone to the occasional gaffe (similar to Daniel Murphy).  It could be him trying to do too much, it could be him having more faith in his abilities than he probably should, it could be his high effort level, or it could be something different altogether.  Whatever it is, it was front and center when Tim Teufel made the baffling decision to send Flores home during that September 10th game against the Braves.  It was absolutely a bad send, but it quite have possibly been a worse slide.  Flores going in head first against a catcher like A.J. Pierzynski lead to his season-ending injury which required surgery to remove the hook of the hamate bone in the offseason.

The best thing you can say about Flores in the 2016 season was he was missed.  During the Wild Card Game, the Mets were one bat short against Madison Bumgarner.  With Flores’ stats against left-handed pitching, he could have gotten that one key hit the Mets needed to win that game.  Except, he was injured and unable to play.  The hope is he learns from this experience and comes back a better player in 2017.

Eric Campbell F

After Ruben Tejada was released on the eve of the season, Campbell was a surprise member of the 25 man roster.  Unfortunately, Campbell was not up to the task as he regressed yet another season.  In 40 games, Campbell hit .173/.284/.227 with one double, one homer, and nine RBI.  While the Mets organization was high on him to start the year (at least higher on him than most people), he didn’t do enough to justify their faith in him.  It was his play that forced the Mets to go out and get James Loney to play first base after Duda’s injury.

Despite the fans apparent hatred of him, he still has use as minor league depth, and if used in small doses, he could have some benefit to a major league team as a pinch hitter and very part time player.  Simply put, he was asked to do too much in 2016.  That was one of the reasons he was removed from the 40 man roster, and it is why he is a minor league free agent at the moment.

Matt Reynolds C

Reynolds numbers during the 2016 season were lackluster.  In 47 games, he only hit .255/.266/.416 with eight doubles, three homers, and 13 RBI.  Still, it is hard to call Reynolds first 47 games in the major leagues disappointing because he did show some promise.

In his limited duty, Reynolds did show himself to be the Mets best major league ready defensive shortstop in the entire Mets organization.  He also played well at second, third, and left field despite his playing a vast majority of his professional career at shortstop.  In fact, the first ever game Reynolds played in left field was at the major league level.  All Reynolds did in that game was play a representative left field and hit the game winning home run.

In 2016, Reynolds showed he could potentially be a major league bench player.  As a former second round pick, many might have wanted more from Reynolds than what he has shown.  That is not entirely fair at this point because he’s only played 47 games as a major leaguer, and in those 47 games, he showed he deserves another shot to be a major leaguer.  With that in mind, despite his numbers being disappointing, Reynolds did have a succesful 2016 season, and we should look forward to what he can contribute in 2017 and beyond.

Ty Kelly C+

Just making it to the major leagues after his long odyssey in the minor leagues was a major accomplishment.  And even though he made it to the majors as a result of a rash of injuries, he did earn his way to the majors with his hot hitting in Las Vegas.  While he initially struggled, Terry Collins finally figured out what he was, and Kelly began to thrive.

Despite his being a switch hitter, Kelly was really best suited to facing left-handed pitching.  While the sample size is really too small to derive a definitive conclusion, it should be noted Kelly put together much better at-bats from the right-hand side of the plate than he did from the left.  As he faced more left-handed pitching, Kelly’s numbers improved, and he finished the season hitting .241/.352/.345 with a double, a triple, a homer, and seven RBI in 39 games.

In the field, while Kelly was used all over the place, and he performed better than anticipated.  His best positions were probably third and left field.  Unfortunately, Kelly did not demonstrate sufficient power to play at either of those positions.  It should be noted that Kelly isn’t going to be a regular at the major league level.  Rather, he is a bench player, so it is quite possible, his relative lack of power may not be as big an issue for him.

Ultimately, Kelly was rewarded for his hard work and resilence.  He was rewarded not just with getting called-up to the majors, but also by being put on the Wild Card Game roster.  In a season with a number of highlights for him, his seventh inning pinch hit single certainly has to rank well up there.

Editor’s Note: the grades for April, May, June, July, August, and September/October can be found by clicking the links. If you want to see the prior entries, here is the link for catchers, and here is the link for middle infielders.

Curt Schilling Is the Reason Why Curt Schilling Won’t Get Elected to the Hall of Fame

If you reset yourself back to 2007, your impression of Curt Schilling was that he was a big game pitcher.  Your first real memory of him was him striking out the first five batters he faced in the 1993 NLCS en route to the Phillies going to the World Series and Schilling winning the MVP.  In 2001, Schilling combined with Randy Johnson to beat the Yankees in seven games to win the World Series.  He and Johnson would shared the World Series MVP.  In 2004, Schilling would be best remembered for the bloody sock that permitted him to win an important Game 6 that would help the Red Sox become the first team to overcome an 0-3 deficit in a postseason series.

He was not only a big game pitcher, he was also a great pitcher.  Over his 20 year career, he was 216-146 with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.137 WHIP.  In the postseason, Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP.  He has three World Series rings to go with the aforementioned MVP awards.  This is an exceedingly strong Hall of Fame case.

Schilling has an even stronger case when you go deeper into the numbers.  The average Hall of Famer starting pitcher has a 73.9 career, WAR, 50.3 WAR7, and a 62.1 JAWS score.  For his career, Schilling has a 79.9 career WAR, 49.0 WAR7, and a 64.5 JAWS score.  Based upon those numbers it appeared as if Schilling may eventually be inducted into the Hall of Fame.

The voting history certainly looked that way.  In 2013, Schilling’s first year on the ballot, he garnered 38.8% of the vote.  Schilling has seen an uptick each subsequent year with him getting 52.3% of the vote last year.  Certainly, with the remaining years on the ballot, it would seem as if he was eventually going to be elected.  That may no longer be the case.

Since his retirement, Schilling has been a lightning rod.  His 38 Studios went bankrupt, and Schilling faced a lawsuit from the State of Rhode Island.  He became an outspoken, if not controversial, voice during in his retirement.  His tweets have led to multiple suspensions and eventual firing from ESPN.  With Schilling no longer being employed by ESPN, he has not had any need to choose his words more carefully (if he ever felt the need).  His latest transgression was promoting the idea of lynching journalists.  Schilling did later state it was sarcasm, but the damage was already done.

Prominent journalists like Jon Heyman and Mike Vaccaro noted that they may not vote for Schilling for the Hall of Fame again this year.  They are hardly alone.  While Schilling should likely clear the 5% threshold and remain on the ballot, it is clear the momentum towards him being elected to the Hall of Fame has come to a screeching halt.  If that is indeed the case, it won’t be the first time Schilling believes his personal beliefs and politics have hurt his Hall of Fame chance.

Assume for a minute that Schilling is right, should his personal politics and “sarcasm” prevent his election into the Hall of Fame?  Those who say yes will undoubtedly invoke the character clause, and there is good reason for that.  The character clause has been used to prevent gamblers like Shoeless Joe Jackson and Pete Rose from induction into the Hall of Fame.  It is currently being used to prevent steroids players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens out of the Hall of Fame.  Seeing how it was applied, it could then be extended for people of poor moral fiber like Schilling is believed to be.

Except it hasn’t quite worked that way.  Cap Anson was the genesis of the ridiculously named “Gentleman’s Agreement” that kept black players out of baseball until Jackie Robinson broke the color barrier.  Rogers Hornsby was alleged to be a member of the KKK.  Roberto Alomar and Kirby Puckett had been involved in domestic violence disputes.  Mickey Mantle was a drunk who played games hungover.  Paul Molitor used cocaine.  Each of these players took part in these activities while playing, and each one of them was inducted into the Hall of Fame.  This doesn’t even take half of the things Babe Ruth was thought to have done during his career.  The character clause wasn’t invoked as the character clause has been taken to mean cheating the game.

So no, the character clause should not prevent Schilling’s induction.  Even with that said, it is going to be a factor because writers are human.  More importantly, with players like Bonds and Clemens not getting elected into the Hall of Fame, there is a backlog of candidates forcing writers to leave worthy player(s) off of their ballot.  If you find yourself in that situation, why not Schilling?  You know he’s not going to garner enough support this year, so why let that stop another worthy candidate, like Tim Raines, from getting elected?  It is a fair and reasonable position.

Ultimately, I hope it doesn’t come to that.  In my opinion, Schilling was a Hall of Famer, and I think the Hall of Fame electorate was progressing in that direction.  While people are critical of the writers, they did elect players like Eddie Murray and Jim Rice who were famously cantankerous with the media (but not to the level of Schilling’s tweet).  With that in mind, if Schilling is not elected to the Hall of Fame this year or the next or ever, he will have no one to blame but himself.

By his own words, Schilling believed his actions and beliefs hurt his chances of getting elected in the past.  When he sent that last Tweet, he should have known it would again have a profound impact.  There will be many who point fingers at different writers for not voting for Schilling, but that blame will be misplaced.  It was Schilling who knew the potential consequences of his actions, and he did it anyway.  Ultimately, Schilling is his own worst enemy when it comes to his not being elected in the Hall of Fame.

Jerry Koosman: From Being Drafted to the Mets

Back in 1962, the New York Mets were having their inaugural season while a 20 year old from Appleton, Minnesota was drafted into military service. Being drafted into the military would forever change the future for Jerry Koosman and the New York Mets.

While Koosman was stationed at Pere Marquette State National Park, Koosman had taken and passed the officer’s test. While awaiting his orders, fate would intervene. Koosman’s dentist, who was a commanding major general of the Minnesota National Guard, helped arrange a transfer where the talented left-hander could play baseball for the military. With that, Koosman was transferred to Fort Bliss. The dentist intervening changed everything. As Koosman said, “Most of those guys didn’t come back. I was two weeks from having my destiny changed.” (Irv Goldfarb, SABR.org).

At Fort Bliss, Koosman’s catcher was a Queens native named John Luchese. As luck would have it, Luchese’s father was an usher at newly built Shea Stadium. Luchese would write to his father about the talented left-hander he was catching in the military, and Luchese’s father would pass along the information to Mets executive Joe McDonald. Upon receiving the tip, the Mets dispatched a scout to the base to see Koosman pitch. Eventually, the Mets would sign Koosman, and upon Koosman’s discharge, he would officially become a member of the New York Mets.

Koosman would have a strange odyssey through the minor leagues before making the Opening Day roster in 1967. Koosman would have a terrific year, and he would finish second in the Rookie of the Year voting to Johnny Bench. This was the beginning of a terrific Mets career for Koosman. The highlight of which was Koosman recording the final out of the 1969 World Series.

In Koosman’s 12 year Mets career, he was 140-137 with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.219 WHIP. He was a member of the 1969 World Series champions, and he was a member of the Ya Gotta Believe! 1973 pennant winning Mets. He is the all-time leader in wins, games started, innings pitched, strikeouts, complete games, and shutouts by a Mets left-handed pitcher. In 1989, he was inducted into the Mets Hall of Fame.

This all began because Koosman was ready to sacrifice his life in service to this country. LIke many veterans, we owe him a debt of gratitude for his service.

On a personal note, Koosman was always a favorite of my father, who served in Vietnam. During my father’s tour of duty, he was awarded the Purple Heart. He is now a DAV, and in retirement, he volunteers at his local VA.  On this day, I thank all veterans, especially my father, for their service to this county.

It Was Time For Bartolo Colon To Go

For the past three years, Bartolo Colon has pitched relatively well for the New York Mets, and he has become a fan favorite.  This past season we saw what might have been his best attribute of all – his durability.  With the Mets having a young staff, veterans like Colon, especially durable ones, are worth their weight in gold.  That might be why Colon has been paid well during his Mets tenure.

With that said, there is some danger in keeping Colon around for another year or two.  Colon has become a soft tosser whose fastball averages 90 MPH.  It’s really important to note this because he throws his fastball an astounding 89% of the time.  As he ages and his fastball velocity drops even further, the greater likelihood he is going to get hit and hit hard.  It is not too dissimilar with what happened with another fanbase’s beloved soft tosser.

In 2006, the Phillies acquired Jamie Moyer to help their rotation, and to help them chase the New York Mets.  With the 44 year old Moyer in the rotation, the Phillies would catch the Mets in 2007.  That year, Moyer was 14-12 with a 5.01 ERA and a 1.445 WHIP.  The following year, Moyer would not only help the Phillies win the National League East again, he would also help the Phillies win their first World Series in 28 years.  It was also his best season in a Philadelphia Phillies uniform.

In 33 starts, the 45 year old Moyer was 16-7 with a 3.71 ERA and a 1.329 WHIP.  He had a 117 ERA+, and he also averaged 83 MPH with his fastball.  Moyer would be a free agent after the 2008 season and a Phillies team basking in the glow of a World Series title, and a Phillies team putting too much stock in an outlier season from a 45 year old pitcher, gave Moyer a two year deal.  As it should have been expected, Moyer struggled in 2009 and 2010.  After that, Moyer’s Phillies career was over, and realistically speaking, Moyer’s major league career was basically over too.

This is the position the Mets are now with Colon.  After recording an 84 and 91 ERA+ in his first two seasons as a Met, Colon rebounded to have a 120 ERA+ in 2016.  Colon did it despite him losing some MPH off his fastball.  As with Moyer, the Mets are in a position to ask themselves whether the 2016 season was sustainable or an outlier.  Given Colon’s age and how hard he throws, the chances lie more with Colon’s 2016 season being an outlier than it is what can be expected of him in 2017 or beyond.

By all accounts, Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz should be ready for Opening Day.  We know Noah Syndergaard will be ready to go.  Even if Zack Wheeler still needs more time, Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo proved to the Mets that they not only can pitch in the major leagues, but also that they can pitch in a pennant race.

And with that, there may no longer be room for Colon on the Mets.  With that Colon decided to take a deal with the Atlanta Braves and join former Met R.A. Dickey in the rotation (it is not known if Josh Thole or Jerry Grote will be signed to catch them). Ultimately, that is a good thing.  It is a sign the Mets young aces are healthy, and it is a sign that the less experienced pitching is ready to contribute.

Many Mets fans will be disappointed in Colon’s leaving the Mets.  It is understandable as he was a fan favorite and good mentor for the young pitchers on the staff.  However, Colon was a 44 year old pitcher, and sooner or later, he is bound to have a precipitous fall-off not too dissimilar from what he saw with Moyer.  This was the right time to part ways, and in the games he doesn’t face the Mets, we should all wish him luck.  We should also hope this rotation is truly healthy and ready to withstand the rigors of the 2016 season without Colon going out and eating up all of those innings.