Changing My Mind on Fred McGriff

Overall, I have decided to vote for Vladimir Guerrero, Jeff Kent, Mike Mussina, Curt Schilling, and Larry Walker on my IBWAA ballot.  If they were up for IBWAA vote, I would have also voted for Tim Raines and Jeff Bagwell while not voting for Edgar Martinez.  In looking at Kent, Mussina, and Walker, I went back over their careers, and I re-assessed whether or not I should vote for them.  Ultimately, I did.  I did the same with players I did not vote for, and as a result, I added one to my ballot:

Fred McGriff, 1B

Stats: 19 seasons, .284/.377/.509, 2,490 H, 441 2B, 24 3B, 493 HR, 1,550 RBI, 38 SB

Advanced: 52.4 WAR, 35.8 WAR7, 44.1 JAWS

Awards: 3X Silver Slugger, 5X All Star

During Hall of Fame voting, many times you will hear about a player being a compiler.  There are two ways you can define compiler: (1) someone who put up a number of counting stats over a very good but not great long career; or (2) Fred McGriff.

Arguably, McGriff was never a truly great player.  In fact, from a WAR perspective, he only had three seasons that you would rate him at superstar or MVP level.    If you take out the partial seasons he played in his first and last year, McGriff averaged a 3.1 WAR.  Basically, this means for most of McGriff’s career, he was a very good, but not quite All Star caliber player.  In that sense, his five All Star appearances seem right on the money.

Like Guerrero.  McGriff’s advanced statistics were held down by his perceived poor base running and defense.  Certainly, McGriff was no Keith Hernandez out there.  In fact, despite his appearance on the Tom Emanski videos, McGriff was not a particularly good first baseman.  Certainly, his .992 fielding percentage was nothing special as far as first baseman go.  It goes a long way in explaining why McGriff had a -18.1 dWAR in his career.  With that said, I am not sure how reliable that -18.1 figure is.

One of McGriff’s contemporaries at first base was the man who replaced him at first base in Toronto – John Olerud.  In Olerud’s playing days, he was considered a very good first baseman who won four Gold Gloves, and in reality, probably should have won more.  That notion has been reinforced by some advanced metrics.  For his career, Olerud’s dWAR was -2.

When reputation and advanced metrics agree a players is a good defensive player at his position, and dWAR completely disagrees, it gives you pause as to whether the calculation is entirely correct.  Assuming McGriff was only half as bad as dWAR suggested, his career WAR would increase to 61.5, which would leave him only 4.4 WAR short of what the average Hall of Famer was.  In fact, you could conclude McGriff was a poor first baseman that merited a negative dWAR and still have him reach the average WAR for a first baseman.

Despite all this hand wringing, the fact remains McGriff probably falls short of being a Hall of Famer due to his defense, and yes, defense matters.  With that said, there are two other factors which give McGriff the benefit of the doubt.

First, McGriff was a money player that was typically at his best when there was a lot at stake.  Using the baseline of his .284/.377/.509 career slash line, here are McGriff’s stats in big situations:

  • RISP: .277/.403/.479
  • RISP, two outs: .241/.399/.421
  • High Leverage: .290/.385/.500

Typically speaking, McGriff was at a minimum slightly better in pressure situations.

Another example of how good McGriff was in pressure situations was the 1993 season.  At the time the Braves acquired McGriff, the Braves trailed the San Francisco Giants by nine games in the National League West Standings.  Over the final 68 games of the season, McGriff would hit an astounding .310/.392/.612 with 19 homers and 55 RBI.  Essentially, McGriff was Yoenis Cespedes before Cespedes was Cespedes.  The Braves needed each and every single one of those homers as they finished one game ahead of the Giants in the standings.

Granted, that was just one season.  However, McGriff’s clutch hitting was also evident in the postseason.  In 50 postseason games, McGriff was a .303/.385/.532 hitter with 10 homers and 37 RBI.  His clutch postseason hitting helped the Braves win their only World Series with the vaunted Greg MadduxTom GlavineJohn Smoltz rotation.  In the 1995 postseason, McGriff hit .333/.415/.649 with four homers and nine RBI.

Overall, his postseason play combined with the question marks surrounding the defensive statistics that push his WAR outside Hall of Fame averages is enough for him to get my vote even if it is my the narrowest or margins.

There is one other small factor at play.  Anyone who saw McGriff towards the end of his career knew he was sticking around to try to get to 500 homers.  At the time, 500 homers was a golden benchmark which led to almost automatic Hall of Fame induction.  Well, McGriff didn’t get there as he fell seven home runs short.  He fell seven home runs short because he began his career in a de facto platoon with Cecil Fielder.  He fell seven home runs short because of the 1994 strike.   He fell seven home runs short because there were pitchers juicing while he wasn’t.  He fell seven home runs short because he was washed up at age 40.  Ultimately, he fell seven home runs short because he just wasn’t good enough to get those seven home runs.

Do you know where he would rank on the all-time home run list with those seven extra home runs?  11th.  Do you know where he currently stands on the list?  11th.  Ultimately, seven home runs over the course of a 19 year career is about one-third of a home run per season.  One-third of a home run per season doesn’t amount to much.  If that is the case, seven home runs should not be the line of demarcation between him being a Hall of Famer and him not garnering much support.

With or without the seven home runs, you can justify voting for McGriff who had a good career for almost all of his 19 seasons.  He has certainly done enough to justify being inducted into Cooperstown.

 

Trivia Friday – Mets in the World Baseball Classic

Countries have begun trying to assemble their rosters for the World Baseball Classic, and it should come as no surprise that many countries are interested in the Mets players.  So far, Ty Kelly (Israel), Seth Lugo (Puerto Rico), and Asdrubal Cabrera (Venezuela) are confirmed to be participating in the World Baseball Classic.  There is also a chance Jeurys Familia (Dominican Republic), Brandon Nimmo (Italy), and Michael Conforto (Italy) could be participating as well.

Whoever plays, they would join a long list of Mets who have played in the World Baseball Classic since its inception in 2006.  Can you name all the Mets players who have played in the World Baseball Classic?  Good luck!


Dae-Sung Koo, Willie Collazo, Pedro Feliciano, Ivan Maldonado, Juan Padilla, Orlando Roman, Jose Santiago, Carlos Delgado, Javier Valentin, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Jorge Sosa, Duaner Sanchez, Jorge Julio, Victor Zambrano, Tony Armas, Endy Chavez, Stefan Welch, Elmer Dessens, Oliver Perez, Shawn Bowman, Jason Bay, Frank Catalanotto, J.J. Putz, David Wright, Fernando Tatis, Ruben Tejada, Nelson Figueroa, Alex Cora, Jesus Feliciano, Francisco Pena

IBWAA Hall of Fame Vote – Vladimir Guerrero

There are a number of interesting candidates to the Hall of Fame ballot this year.  They are interesting for a multitude of reasons.  There are a group of players who are still tainted by steroids.  There are players who were important members of teams that won multiple World Series titles.  There were also some players who were among the best at their position.  Despite all of that, I am only voting for

Vladimir Guerrero

Stats: 16 seasons, .318/.379/.553, 477 2B, 46 3B, 449 HR, 1,496 RBI, 181 SB

Advanced: 59.3 WAR, 41.1 WAR7, 50.2 JAWS

Awards: 8X Silver Slugger, 9X All Star, 2004 AL MVP

What is interesting about Guerrero is there is a chasm here.  The chasm is the player I perceived Guerrero to be during his playing career, and the player advanced statistics did not like as much as I did.

Looking at the advanced statistics, Guerrero falls short of induction.  The average right fielder has amassed a 73.2 WAR, 43.0 WAR7, and a 58.1 JAWS.  Realistically speaking, Guerrero only comes close in terms of WAR7, and he is still short on that front.  It is also interesting that Larry Walker has cleared each of those thresholds, and yet, he has been trouble gaining traction in Hall of Fame voting.

Another startling fact was Guerrero is actually behind Bobby Abreu, who I do not perceive as a Hall of Famer, in all of those advanced stats.  Ultimately, if Guerrero would be inducted into the Hall of Fame, he would be one of the worst right fielders ever inducted into the Hall of Fame.  Despite the advanced stats, I voted for him anyway.

In his career, Guerrero was as exciting a player as you would see step onto the baseball field.  Not only would he literally swing at anything, he could also hit anything:

He also had one of the strongest arms you will ever see on a baseball field:

Guerrero was why you come to the ballpark, but admittedly, that isn’t enough to deserve enshrinement in Cooperstown.  There has to be a better reason, and there is.

With Guerrero’s 449 homers, he would be the only right fielder with over 400 homers not inducted into the Hall of Fame not named Jose Canseco.  Of all right fielders, he ranks sixth all-time in slugging percentage.  Of the five ahead of him, the only ones not elected in the Hall of Fame are Walker (still eligible), and Juan Gonzalez (steroids).  With 972 extra base hits, he would be the first right fielder with over 950 extra base hits, that has been Hall of Fame eligible and not tainted by steroids, that is not inducted in the Hall of Fame.  To demonstrate how feared a hitter he was, Guerrero ranks fifth all-time in intentional walks, with him leading the league in intentional walks on five different occasions.

On top of this, Guerrero has a good .312 batting average and a respectable .379 on base percentage.  Looking at those numbers, it begs the question over why Guerrero’s advanced statistics are so low.

Well, the first reason is base running.  Guerrero was not the most successful of base stealers only being successful 65.8% of the time.  For example, in the year he reached a career high 40 stolen bases in his quest to reach 40/40, he was caught stealing a league leading 20 times.  Overall, Guerrero has been asserted to be among the worst base runners of all time.  In fact, it has been said he is the worst non-catcher base runner of all time.

Between that and advanced statistics, pre-StatCast, not loving his defense, Guerrero went from a hitter certainly worth of enshrinement to a player that advanced statistics indicate should be on the outside looking in.  Guerrero has lost 10.7 in WAR due to his defense and an additional three due to his base running.  Between the two, that is 13.7 lost in WAR.  If you were to add that back, Guerrero’s career WAR would be 73, which is right on the cusp for enshrinement.

This isn’t to say defense and base running don’t matter.  It also isn’t to say the WAR calculations are definitively wrong.  Rather, it does leave room for the concept that maybe the data would be calculated differently, especially in the StatCast era, that would be beneficial to Guerrero.  It also leaves room for the idea that much of the issues with base running and defense were associated with him spending much of his career playing for Felipe Alou and Mike Scioscia, two managers who demanded an aggressive, some would say reckless, base running style.  They are also two managers not well know for their adherence to advanced data, which could have helped with Guerrero’s defense.

Again, this is just leaving room, and it is not making excuses for the areas in the game where Guerrero has been alleged to have been lacking.

Overall, Guerrero, a former MVP, was one of the best players in baseball during his playing career, and he was certainly a player that outshone his peers.  Ultimately, he deserves induction to Cooperstown.

Hall of Fame Ballot – Players Inducted by the IBWAA

If you were to look at the IBWAA ballot, voters are unable to vote for three players which are on the BBWAA ballot.  The reason is those players already garnered the necessary 75% to be considered Hall of Famers according to the IBWAA.  While I cannot vote for those players like I did for these other four players, I do think it is worthwhile to examine their candidacy especially when they are eligible for Hall of Fame induction.

Tim Raines, LF

Stats: 23 seasons, .294/.385/.425, 430 2B, 113 3B, 170 HR, 980 RBI, 808 SB

Advanced: 69.1 WAR, 42.2 WAR7, 55.6 JAWS

Awards: Silver Slugger, 7X All-Star

Over the span of 23 years, Raines had three different careers.  From 1981 – 1987, Raines was the best leadoff hitter in the National League, and perhaps the second greatest leadoff hitter of all time.  The problem was during this time frame Raines was overshadowed by his contemporary, Rickey Henderson, who is widely regarded as the best leadoff hitter of all time.  Another fact to consider was Raines has been overlooked due to his great years being in Montreal.

From 1988 – 1995, Raines was a solid regular who was still an on base machine.  He was still stealing bases, but not at an elite clip like he was earlier in this career.  He was a good player you wanted on your team, but he was no longer an All-Star caliber player; certainly not in an era when players were starting to hit for more and more power.

From 1996 – 2002, Raines was a player holding on.  First, he was looking to get that ring as a veteran leader for a Yankees team about to start its next dynasty.  Next, he was holding on so he could play with his son Tim Raines, Jr. with the Baltimore Orioles.

We can all agree that if Raines career spanned from 1988 – 2002, he would not be a Hall of Famer.  In that time frame, he really only had one truly great year in 1992.  Other than that, he was a solid player to veteran leader.  However, Raines career started much each than that.  In reality, his career as an everyday player started in 1981.

From 1981 – 1987, Raines was as good as anyone in baseball.  In that seven year stretch, his average season was .310/.396/.448 with 103 runs, 31 doubles, nine triples, nine home runs, 55 RBI, and 72 stolen bases.  He would accumulate 38.4 WAR while averaging 5.5 WAR per season.  For the sake of comparison, Henderson’s best stretch was arguably from 1982 – 1988.  In those seasons, Rickey averaged .289/.399/.447 with 26 doubles, four triples, 16 home runs, 56 RBI, and 86 stolen bases with a 6.7 WAR.  Looking at these numbers, we can all agree that Rickey was the better player, but was he that much better during this stretch?

Again, remember that Rickey was not a borderline Hall of Famer.  He was a no doubter.  Rickey being slightly better than you means you were still a Hall of Fame talent.  That is evidenced by Raines having a higher WAR, WAR7, and JAWS than the average Hall of Fame left fielder.  Even if you note, Rickey played at a Hall of Fame level much longer than Raines, it does not mean Raines was not a Hall of Famer.  It means Raines was the second best leadoff hitter of all time.  That deserves induction.

If you are not convinced, here are some other interesting facts.  Raines is fifth all-time in stolen bases, and if he was inducted, he would have the best stolen base percentage of anyone inducted into the Hall of Fame.  Raines’ 85% success rate is the best in major league baseball history out of anyone with over 312 stolen bases.  He is the only player to steal 70 bases in seven consecutive seasons.  With that said, you could argue that while he doesn’t have the highest numbers, no one was better at successfully stealing a base than Raines.

Overall, the case is just too strong.  Raines is a Hall of Famer, and he should be inducted in his final year of eligibility.

Jeff Bagwell, 1B

Stats: 15 seasons, .297/.408/.540, 448 2B, 32 3B, 449 HR, 1,529 RBI, 202 SB

Advanced: 79.6 WAR, 48.2 JAWS7, 63.9 JAWS

Awards: Gold Glove, 3X Silver Slugger, 4X All Star, 1991 Rookie of the Year, 1994 NL MVP

Part of me understands Bagwell not having gained induction into the Hall of Fame.  As someone who closely followed baseball during Bagwell’s playing time, he didn’t seem like one of the best players in baseball let alone someone who would be a Hall of Famer.  However, when you look at the numbers, and his career, it is hard to make a case against him.

From 1991 – 2004, Bagwell was an everyday player who averaged 32 homers and 108 RBI with an outstanding 150 OPS+.  To put it in perspective, Willie McCovey, a good example of a slugging first baseman, averaged 32 homers and 88 RBI with a 161 OPS+  during the best 11 year stretch of his career.  McCovey is an interesting comparison as he had to hit in Candlestick, which like the Astrodome, was a difficult place to hit homers.  The difference between the two is McCovey played at a time when it was more difficult to hit homers, and McCovey reached that formerly magic 500 home run threshold.  Still, if Bagwell’s career numbers are comparable to the best of McCovey, certainly Bagwell is a Hall of Famer.

However, Bagwell was more than a slugging first baseman.  He was a threat on the bases.  His 202 stolen bases ranks him 20th among first baseman.  Notably, however, none of the 19 ahead of him hit more than 106 homers in their careers.  Bagwell’s speed was an interesting dynamic for a first baseman who could also hit 30+ homers in a season.  An interesting factoid from Bagwell’s career is that Bagwell actually led the league in scoring on three different occasions.  It is all the more remarkable when you consider he spent most of his career hitting in the middle of the lineup.

Moreover, Bagwell has the advanced statistics to garner induction.  His WAR is sixth all-time at the position.  That puts him ahead of such renown Hall of Famers like the aforementioned McCovey, Harmon Killebrew, and Hank Greenberg.  Overall, the only thing that can be used to justify keeping Bagwell out of the Hall of Fame is steroids.  However, there is no proof or statement Bagwell used steroids.  Absent that, keeping him out of the Hall of Fame is wrong, and therefore, he should be inducted to Cooperstown.

Edgar Martinez, DH

Stats: 18 seasons, .312/.418/.515, 514 2B, 15 3B, 309 HR, 1,261 RBI, 49 SB

Advanced: 68.3 WAR, 43.6 WAR7, 56.0 JAWS

Awards: 5X Silver Slugger, 7X All Star

Let’s start with one common fallacy we are seeing with people who are making cases for Martinez to be inducted into the Hall of Fame.  Many will argue Martinez deserves induction because he has a higher batting average than Jackie Robinson, a higher on base percentage than Stan Musial, a higher slugging than Ernie Banks, more doubles than Babe Ruth, more homers than Rogers Hornsby, more RBI than Tony Gwynn, more hits than Joe DiMaggio, and a higher WAR than Yogi Berra.  This is a distraction because Edgar Martinez was not a position player like the aforementioned players.  Edgar was a DH.

That is not to suggest a DH can’t be inducted into the Hall of Fame.  In fact, there are already two that have been inducted.  The first was Paul Molitor in 2004, and the second was Frank Thomas in 2014.  With there being two DHs already in the Hall of Fame, we have a baseline upon which to judge Martinez’s candidacy.  When judging Martinez up against Molitor and Thomas, he falls short.

Thomas accumulated the following advanced stats: 71.0 WAR, 45.2 WAR7, and a 59.5 JAWS.  He also had 500 homers.  Molitor accumulated a 75.4 WAR, 39.6 WAR7, and a 57.5 JAWS.  He also had 3,000 hits, and he was the 1993 World Series MVP.

Looking at Martinez, he falls behind Thomas and Molitor in terms of career WAR and JAWS.  Basically, the only argument Martinez would have based upon the advanced statistics is WAR7.  However, it is hard to justify enshrinement based upon that one statistic, especially when you consider Martinez didn’t have as long a career, and he didn’t have the magic numbers like Thomas and Molitor.

If you want to expand the numbers, you could start building a better case.  You could argue Martinez’s 147 OPS+ and 147 wRC+ was far above Molitor’s 122 OPS+ and 122 wRC+.  However, Martinez’s numbers fall well short of Thomas, who put up a 156 OPS+ and a 154 wRC+.

This is important when you consider one of the justifications provided for Martinez’s enshrinement is the supposition that he was the best DH of all-time.  However, looking over all of the numbers, he wasn’t.  The best DH of all-time was Frank Thomas.

It is hard to say he deserves enshrinement as being somewhere between 2-5 on the all-time list of DH.  First, the DH position has only be around since 1973, and for many years Harold Baines was considered the best DH.  No one was arguing Baines’ case for induction into the Hall of Fame when he was elected.

The other fallacy argument is DH should be treated as closers, which is another specialty position.  It is true that closers are a specialty position, but relievers have been around since there has been baseball.  The first professional team was founded in 1869, and Major League Baseball was founded in 1903.  Since that time, there have been exactly five relief pitchers inducted into the Hall of Fame.  The main reason is the position is seen as a specialist position.  Therefore, only the best of the absolute best should be inducted.

Keep in mind, when Lee Smith was first eligible to be inducted he was the all-time saves leader, and he had a 132 OPS+, which was much higher than pitchers who had already been inducted into the Hall of Fame.  For example, Tom Seaver, a pitcher who is arguably the best right handed pitcher of all time, had a 127 ERA+.  Smith never garnered more than 50.6% of the vote because while he was arguably a great specialist, he did not do enough as a specialist to earn Hall of Fame enshirnement.

That is where I am with Edgar.  He was a very good DH, and he was one of the best ever.  However, he was not the best DH, nor did he do anything as a DH better than anyone in history.  He was just really good at a specialty role.  That makes him an all-time Mariner.  That makes him an all-time DH.  It does not equate to being a Hall of Famer.

IBWAA Hall of Fame Vote – Players From Last Year’s Ballot

With the induction of Mike Piazza and Ken Griffey, Jr. coupled with Alan Trammell having fallen off the ballot, some of the glut that has been there in year’s past is no longer there.  Still, there are a number of people on the ballot who are deserving of Hall of Fame induction.

Before addressing who I did and who I did not vote for, it should be noted that I am not one who believes steroids users should be inducted into the Hall of Fame.  However, I do believe there needs to be some evidence of usage if you are going to deny someone of a vote.  For far too long Piazza was denied induction despite the complete lack of credible evidence against him.  This fate has also befallen Jeff Bagwell.  And no, my opinion on this did not change with the induction of Bud Selig.  One mistake should not beget another.

For example, Jesse Haines is considered one of the worst selections in major league history.  However, he is not used as a door to induct any starter with a 200 wins and an ERA above 3.50.  If that was the case, David Cone and Dwight Gooden would be kicking themselves over retiring before getting those last six wins.

That is why I typically compare players to the average Hall of Famer at that position.  Saying someone is similar to the worst player inducted only serves to reduce the quality of the players inducted.  To compare everyone to the best of the best excludes players who had truly remarkable careers.  With that said, I compare players to the average with some caveats.  First, you should get extra credit for postseason play.  Second, you should get extra credit for doing something better than anyone has at that position.  Third, winning hardware and awards do matter.  Note, I only treat those as bonuses and not detractors.

With that long preamble, here are the players I voted for in last year’s IBWAA balloting.  After re-examining the respective cases, I am once again voting for the following players:

Larry Walker

Career Stats: 17 seasons, .313/.400/.565, 471 2B, 62 3B, 383 HR, 1,311 RBI, 230 SB

Advanced: 72.6 WAR, 44.6 WAR7, 58.6 JAWS

Awards: 7X Gold Glove, 3X Silver Slugger, 5X All-Star, 1997 NL MVP

While Mark McGwire was generally seen as the test for whether steroids players would be inducted into the Hall of Fame, Walker has been the test case for players that have put up terrific offensive numbers at Coors Field.  So far, Walker has been penalized for playing in Coors Field, and many people have disregarded someone who has been one of the best right fielders to every play the game.

In his heyday, Walker was not only an outstanding hitter, he was an outstanding fielder as evidenced by his Gold Gloves.  He was  one of the most complete players of his generation.  Despite that, he is being discounted due to Coors Field where players put up proverbial video game numbers.

Yes, Walker did benefit from playing in Coors Field.  In his career, Walker was a .381/.462/.710 hitter.  However, it should be noted that on the road for his career, Walker was a 278/.370/.495 hitter.  Furthermore, in his six years with the Expos at the beginning of his career, he hit .281/.357/.483.  Reggie Jackson, who was a first ballot inductee, was a career .262/.356/.490 hitter.  Walker’s road and Expos numbers compare very favorably to Jackson.

With the Jackson comparison, the MVP Award, the Gold Gloves, and the advanced stats, Walker should be inducted into Cooperstown.

Jeff Kent

Stats: 17 seasons, .290/.356/.500, 560 2B, 47 3B, 377 HR, 1,518 RBI, 94 SB

Advanced: 55.2 WAR, 35.6 WAR7, 45.4 JAWS

Awards: 4X Silver Slugger, 5X All Star, 2000 NL MVP

There are many good reasons not to vote for Kent.  He was a corner infielder masquerading as a second baseman.  The advanced stats certainly don’t match up to the standard for induction into the Hall of Fame.  All of this is very true, but I voted for him anyway.

The reason is Kent is the best slugging second baseman in major league history, and he’s the best hitter at the position next to Rogers HornsbyAmong second baseman, he’s hit the most home runs, fourth most doubles, third highest RBI, and the second highest slugging percentage. When you add the 2000 MVP to the picture, there is enough there to say Kent deserves induction into Cooperstown.

Curt Schilling

Stats: 20 seasons, 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 83 CG, 22 SHO, 22 SV, 1.137 WHIP, 3,116 K

Advanced: 79.9 WAR, 49.0 WAR7, 64.5 JAWS

Awards: 6X All-Star, 1993 NLCS MVP, 2001 WS MVP

Many could look upon Schilling’s career, and they could lament over a relatively low win total and high ERA.  However, that is only the tip of the iceberg when it comes to Schilling.

Looking at Schilling’s advanced numbers, he certainly has done enough to earn induction into the Hall of Fame.  His WAR and JAWS are above the average for Hall of Fame pitchers.  His 127 ERA+ is the same as Tom Seaver‘s.  In terms of more traditional stats, Schilling is in the Top 15 on the career strike out list.  He is also has the second best K/BB ratio among players eligible for the Hall of Fame.  These numbers alone should warrant induction.

On top of that, Schilling is the definition of a Big Game Pitcher.  In his postseason career, Schilling was 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP.  In the World Series, Schilling was 4-1 with a 2.06 ERA and a 0.896 WHIP.  He has won an NLCS MVP and a World Series MVP.  He was a key member of three World Series winning clubs.  Between his postseason heroics and his regular season dominance, Schilling is a Hall of Famer.

Overall, if we are being honest, the reason Schilling won’t be inducted this year or the upcoming years will be a result of his post-career actions.

Mike Mussina

Stats: 18 seasons, 270-153, 3.68 ERA, 57 CG, 23 SHO, 1.192 WHIP, 2,813 K

Advanced: 83.0 WAR, 44.5 WAR7, 63.8 JAWS

Awards: 6X Gold Glove, 5X All-Star

At age 39, Mussina finally got to the elusive benchmark of 20 wins in a season.  Judging from that year, it appeared he had an extra couple of years left in him to go make a run at 300 like many in his shoes would have.  Certainly, with his conditioning and the like, he had at least three years left in him to get it, and if he had, he likely would have been elected into the Hall of Fame without much of a fight.

However, Mussina did not get to that magical number leaving us to examine what was an interesting and a very good career.

To appropriately view Mussina, it needs to be within the context of his era.  Mussina not only played during the Steroids Era, but he also pitched in a bandbox like Camden Yards for the majority of his career.  It is a huge reason why that despite his relatively high 3.68 ERA for Hall of Fame standards, Mussina has a career 123 ERA+.  His 123 ERA+ is the same as Juan Marichal who pitched in a different era, had a career 2.89 ERA, and was a inducted his fourth time on the ballot.

Mussian’s ERA+ is also much higher to first ballot Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan and his 112 ERA+.  What is interesting about that is despite being completely different pitchers with very different careers, Mussina and Ryan have similar cases from an advanced stat point of view.  Despite having pitched in nine more seasons than Mussina, Ryan actually trails Mussina in career WAR.  Ryan also trails Mussina in WAR7 and JAWS.

This is not to diminish Ryan’s career.  He was a first ballot Hall of Famer for a reason.  He was a 300 game winner with more strikeouts and no-hitters than anyone in baseball history.  Despite these tremendous stats, it is arguable that Mussina was a the superior pitcher to Ryan.  When you can create a valid argument why someone was a better pitcher than a no-doubt Hall of Famer like Ryan, you belong in the Hall of Fame; and ultimately, that is why Mussina belongs in Cooperstown.

Bud Selig Does Not Belong in the Hall of Fame

The Veteran’s Committee, which has been re-branded as the Today’s Game Era Committee, somehow elected former commissioner Bud Selig into the Baseball Hall of Fame.  With that, Selig becomes one of the worst choices for the Hall of Fame in baseball history.

Sure, his proponents will point to his achievements.  Under Selig, we got the Wild Card and Interleague play, which arguably helped baseball achieve higher ratings and revenues.  Furthermore, Selig was in charge when MLB Advanced Media (MLB AM) was established.  The establishment of the internet media company was visionary and has provided a huge boost to MLB.  Under Selig’s stewardship, we have seen labor peace for the first time and incrementally improving steroid testing.  These are all achievements to be sure, but they overshadow what has been a largely negative tenure in baseball for Selig.

1980’s Collusion

Selig first became an owner in 1970 when he purchased the Seattle Pilots, and he moved them to Milwaukee after the Pilots inaugural season.  Selig was then one of the owners who colluded in the 1980s to suppress players salary and movement between teams.  At this time, future Hall of Famers like Carlton Fisk, Phil Niekro, and Andre Dawson were having a difficult time just getting a free agent offer.  This was a pattern that continued throughout the decade, and eventually, it led to union filing grievances against the owners.  Eventually, this led to owners having to agree to a $280 million settlement to the MLBPA.

It has been alleged Selig was one of the leaders of the owner’s collusion to improperly restrict player movement and to suppress player salaries.  It just so happens that a small market team like the Brewers were beneficiaries of the policy with the team being able to hold onto future Hall of Famers Paul Molitor and Robin Yount for much longer than they probably would have had the system not been improperly rigged.  This collusion set the stage for the disastrous 1994 player strike.

Ascension to Power

As Commissioner, Fay Vincent would make two “mistakes” that would lead to the end of his tenure.  The first was he treated players like an equal part in the business of baseball.  The second was he chastised the owners for collusion saying, “The single biggest reality you guys have to face up to is collusion. You stole $280 million from the players, and the players are unified to a man around that issue, because you got caught and many of you are still involved.”  (metsmerizedonline.com).

This along with many other reasons designed to help his franchise, the Milwaukee Brewers, was a catalyst for Selig organizing the owners to remove Vincent from power.  Ultimately, the owners made an 18-9 no confidence vote, and a humiliated Vincent would resign from his office.  This led to Selig’s rise to power.

Cancellation of the 1994 World Series

One of the singular owners responsible for collusion and the deep distrust between the players and owners was now in charge of baseball.  With his newfound power, he wanted to usher in a complete change in economics and relationship with the players.  In effect, he wanted to normalize the collusion practices of the 1980s by trying to impose a hard cap on the players.  He and the owners tried this despite having full knowledge this was a non-starter for a union the owners never broke in negotiations.

The method Selig sought to try to break the union was to wrongfully withhold a payment to the players’ pension and benefits plan.  This singular action was the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back, and it all but forced the union to set a strike date.  After the strike was in effect, and after mediation proved ineffective, Selig, as acting commissioner, set forth a deadline of September 9th.  If there was no deal in place, the baseball season would be over.

On September 8th, the players set forth a deal with some concessions.  However it should be noted those concessions fell far short of all the demands of the owners, including but not limited to a salary cap.  The owners never presented a counter-offer.  Rather, on September 14th, the World Series was officially cancelled despite there presumably being sufficient time left on the calendar to get a deal done and have a postseason.

Unfair Labor Practices

With the strike dragging on and there being no hopes of new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the owners, led by their acting commissioner, Selig, enacted the salary cap they wanted in the first place.  Undaunted, the owners announced a plan to go forward with the 1995 season using replacement players if the major league players on strike could not capitulate to the new labor rules the owners were trying to force upon them.  Like with owner’s collusion attempts, this would have near disastrous consequences.

First, the issue of the owners colluding once again went before an arbitrator.  The arbitrator found in favor of the players to the tune of $10 million.  Next, Congress nearly revoked baseball’s anti-trust exemption.  Lastly, the owners were found to have committed unfair labor practices.  As a result, future Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor issued an injunction against the owner’s improper salary cap, and ordered that the players could return to work under the guise of the recently expired collective bargaining agreement.

In effect, the owner’s action, under the guidance of Acting Commissioner Bud Selig, led to the loss of the World Series and $10 million dollars.  Moreover, it led to fan anger, and it deeply hurt some franchises.  For all of that, the owners accomplished nothing.

Death of Baseball in Montreal and Municipally Funded Ballparks

At the time of the strike, the Expos were the best team in baseball with a 74-40 record.  It looked like the beginning of a promising run for the Expos because not only did they have the lowest payroll in the majors, they had some exciting young stars in Cliff Floyd, Moises Alou, Larry Walker, Pedro Martinez, and John Wetteland.  For a Canadian franchise that just saw its fellow Canadian franchise, the Toronto Blue Jays, win back-to-back World Series, it appeared as if it was finally the Expos turn.

It would never happen.

After the costly strike, the Expos were forced to trade away almost all of its players.  As the Expos owners at the time put it, they could not afford to keep the team together, especially without the revenues that could’ve been generated by a long postseason run.  Between the anger with the strike and with the Expos getting rid of all their best players, there simply was no reason for fans to come to the ballpark anymore.  Ultimately, the Expos attendance figures would continuously decline until they actually drew under one million people in 1998.

The declining attendance figures helped Selig come up with his next ploy that would not only help the Brewers, but would also anger fans in other cities – contraction.  In the 2001 offseason, the owners voted to have the ability to contract as many as two major league franchises.  The teams cited for contraction were the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Florida Marlins, Montreal Expos, and Minnesota Twins.  Effectively, this created a game of musical chairs and the ability to help coerce cities to fund ballparks.

First, the Marlins owners were part of a group of owners that purchased the Boston Red Sox.  With the Marlins needing ownership, the Jeffrey Loria, a man who had claimed almost full ownership of the Expos, was then approved as the purchaser of the Florida Marlins.  With an ownership void, baseball took the unprecedented act of purchasing the Expos.

It should be noted smaller market clubs like the Pirates and the Brewers were not among those mentioned in contraction talks despite their claims of their operating in the red.  The main reason is those cities had already agreed to build those teams a new ballpark.  Eventually, the cities of Minneapolis and Miami would agree to financially support owners to build a new ballpark.  With the hopes of building a new ballpark in Montreal dashed, baseball eventually moved the Expos to Washington, D.C. who had agreed to take on the funding of a new ballpark for the team.

Between the strike and contraction threats, Selig helped kill baseball in Montreal.  He did it as part of his mission to get municipalities to fund and build ballparks for teams.  Overall, he has been largely successful on that front, but there are still issues in Tampa (lease) and Oakland.

As an aside, it should be noted that the Expos were one of the few teams to lose a superstar during the collusion practices of the 1980s.  Basically, the practices Selig either led or helped promote had an enduring effect of harming baseball in Montreal.

The Oakland Athletics Limbo

O.co Coliseum is largely seen as an antiquated ballpark.  Moreover, it is widely assumed the Athletics need to build a new ballpark to help create new revenue streams in order to be able to compete financially.  Many assume the Athletics need to move out of Oakland in order to get the type of ballpark and market needed to compete.  On both fronts, the Athletics found a willing partner with the City of San Jose.

There is just on problem – the San Francisco Giants have the rights to that city.  Under somewhat antiquated rules, the San Francisco Giants have the rights to San Jose meaning only the Giants have the right to move there.  This decision was in place despite the cities of San Francisco and Oakland being part of the larger metropolitan area known as the Bay Area.  Notably, San Jose is also part of that area.

To put things in perspective, the distance between the two ballparks is 15.3 miles.  Citi Field and Yankee Stadium are similarly apart in that the two ballparks are 9.7 miles apart.  Similar to Oakland and San Francisco, you need either use public transportation or cross a bridge to get to the other ballpark.  Keeping those distances in mind, the Giants having control over San Jose would be like the Yankees having control over Northern New Jersey, thereby preventing the Mets from building a ballpark in the Meadowlands next to Metropolitan Stadium even though the team is moving within the same metropolitan area.

Note, this could never happen because the Mets and Yankees do not have separate territorial rights.  Yet, somehow the Giants and Athletics do, and with baseball’s anti-trust exemption, the Athletics franchise has been in limbo.

Despite the limbo, the declining revenues, and attendance, Selig refused to help address the issue despite San Jose’s pleas.  Selig had an opportunity to show leadership, and help all of the major league franchises.  Instead, he demurred while bemoaning how the Athletics current situation is irreconcilable.  With Selig’s retirement, he has left the mess for the new commissioner, Bob Manfred.

The Steroids Era

To say baseball didn’t benefit from the Steroids Era would be a lie.  Back in 1998, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa were chasing down Roger Maris‘ single season home run record, and fans angered at the strike were coming back to the game.  At the time, Selig would say, “This is a renaissance.”  (Howard Bryant, ESPN.com).

However, to hear Selig tell it now, he tried to get to the bottom of what was happening.  As he recently told Jayson Stark of ESPN.com, “They gave me a whole bunch of reasons.  And I kept asking about steroids.”  Selig would go on to say in the interview, “You know, I’ve thought about it a hundred times, because I’m pretty tough on myself.  And I honestly don’t know what else I could have done. That’s my answer.”

Now, to be fair to Selig, as the commissioner, he could not unilaterally impose sanctions on players who used steroids.  Additionally, he could not impose testing.  It should also be noted Selig did have broad discretion to do this with the minor leagues, and he did in fact do it.  To that end, he does deserve some credit.

With that said, it is noticeable Selig did not use his pulpit as commissioner to try to impose steroids testing or suspensions.  As seen above, when it came to the financial aspect of baseball, Selig tried to obtain unprecedented power.  In the wake of the costly collusion lawsuit, he helped oust a sitting commissioner to become an acting commissioner.  During the 1994 strike, he led the owners in the implementation of a salary cap.  When it came to helping owners and getting new ballparks, he got the approval from the owners to contract two major league franchises.  However, suddenly, with steroids, Selig was not only silent, he has also acted as someone who had little power to address the issue.

Fact is Selig didn’t address the issue because there were growing attendance and revenues stemming from the Steroids Era.  It helped heal some of the wounds of the strike, and it led to larger and larger television contracts.  At best, Selig turned a blind eye to steroids use because it was helping the game.  At worst, he was a willing participant who cared not for the sanctity of baseball’s sacred records.

Whatever you believe, the Steroids Era is an indelible part of his history.  And yet, with his induction into the Hall of Fame, he now appears to be the only person untainted by the era.

Yes, it is a different panel of voters that voted for Selig than had the opportunity to vote for players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.  However, it should be noted that this same panel had the opportunity to elect McGwire into the Hall of Fame as the same time as Selig, and yet, McGwire fell far short of the votes needed for induction to the Hall of Fame.  This seems odd, especially when you consider the Mitchell Report, which was commissioned by Selig, found Selig partially culpable for the Steroids Era:

Everyone involved in baseball over the past two decades – Commissioners, club officials, the Players
Association, and players – shares to some extent in the responsibility for the steroids era. There
was a collective failure to recognize the problem as it emerged and to deal with it early on. As a
result, an environment developed in which illegal use became widespread.

Mitchell Report, p. SR-36.

Despite the Mitchell Report, the Hall of Fame has decided to take two very separate and distinct stances on McGwire.  With respect to the steroids usage, the Hall of Fame is now asserting that any player who benefited from the use of steroids should be barred from the Hall of Fame.  However, any executive or owner who not only shared the benefits of McGwire’s steroids use, but also helped promote a culture of steroids use across baseball could reap the benefits thereof.  Overall, the Hall of Fame has decided that Selig can benefit from the wrong actions of players he did little to nothing to stop.  It is really difficult to make sense of two very different positions.

Selig’s Legacy

No matter how you look at it, Selig’s enduring legacy is going to be: (1) he was the commissioner who cancelled a World Series; (2) he was the commissioner that presided over the Steroids Era; and (3) he is the commissioner that introduce Interleague Play and the Wild Card.

As seen above, Selig’s is a complicated legacy, and that is before you get into relatively minor decisions like not letting the New York Mets wear the first responder’s caps on 9/11 to honor those people who died during the most devastating terror attack on U.S. soil, forcing the McCourts to sell the Los Angeles Dodgers, or his empowering the Wilpons to continue ownership of the Mets despite their financial difficulties resulting from the Madoff Scandal.

Maybe it is too soon to judge Selig’s overall legacy.  On the positive, he has grown the sport financially, and he has introduced some aspects to the game that are currently seen as positives.  No one should overlook those accomplishments.

However, Selig was an owner who helped build distrust between the owners and players than helped create the 1994 strike and the cancellation of the World Series.  His actions and inactions as commissioner caused him to be called before a Congress who continuously threatened to revoke baseball’s antitrust exemption.  Selig presided over the end of baseball in Montreal, and he also has helped put the Athletics in limbo.  He has twice been a part of the sport being embarrassed with the owners twice being found to have committed unfair labor practices.  The actions cost the owners nearly $300 million not including whatever revenues were lost during the 1994 season.

Overall, it is fair to say Selig’s has damaged baseball as both an owner and a commissioner.  At a minimum, his negatives should have called for more time to judge his legacy.  Instead, we now have someone in the Hall of Fame who:

  • Helped collude to restrict player movement and salaries;
  • Helped facilitate the 1994 strike;
  • Cancelled the World Series;
  • Was part of a collection of owners twice found to have committed unfair labor practices;
  • Oversaw the end of baseball in Montreal; and
  • Was partially culpable for the Steroids Era.

It is hard to find a person in baseball who has had as negative an effect upon the game of baseball.  However, all of this was overlooked, and he was inducted into the Hall of Fame presumably because he made a lot of decision makers a lot of money.

Amazon Video Is Better Than DVD or Blu Ray

Now that my son is getting older, he has become more and more interested in watching movies and different shows than just watching some clips of shows here and there.  While used to get away with watching what was available on the PBS Kids, Disney, Nick Jr, etc apps, my son has developed more definitive interests in not just certain characters, but also certain episodes or movies.

That becomes an issue when a episodes is taken off of the app, or your so sees something on TV that never makes its way onto the app in the first place.

When I was a child that usually meant my parents would have to go to the video store (remember those?), or they would have to breakdown and go to the store and buy the movie.  At different points in my youth, I remember having G.I. Joe, Gumby, He-Man, and Transformers VHS tapes.  My brother and I would watch them over and over and over again.  Harking back to that time, I actually thought of purchasing some videos to have for my son.

Because everyone first checks there for stuff nowadays, I first went to Amazon to look for the videos.  During my search, I began to notice many of the videos I was looking for were available for rent or purchase as a digital download.  At a minimum, I was intrigued.

One thing I noticed early on is renting the videos made little to no sense.  Let’s take Finding Dory as an example.  Right now to rent this movie, it will cost $5.99.  For only $14.00 more, you can buy the video.  In essence, the cost of buying the video is three rentals.  If you have a child, you realize that if your child likes the movie, you are renting it three times or more.  More importantly, if your child does like the video and you now have to purchase it, the cost is going to be $25.98 to you instead of the $19.99.  If you know your child well, and I assume that you do, you will know what your child likes.  If that is the case, just buy the video.

Now, the reason why buying the video for $19.99 is superior to purchasing the Blu Ray for the same price or the DVD for $2 less for a few reasons. First, with the download, you don’t have a Blu Ray/DVD that can be lost and damaged.  Second, with the digital download, you can access the movie anywhere you want.

My family has a Roku stick which is transportable.  I can use that Roku stick to watch Finding Dory in my house, my son’s grandparent’s houses, or really anywhere we go that has an internet connection and a television.  There are also apps for your phone or tablet that will permit you to watch the video no matter where you go.  And with that, you will always have the movie with you so long as you can get an internet connection.

Another advantage with Amazon is the daily specials they have.  For example, I was able to purchase The Peanuts Movie for $4.99 when now it costs $14.99 (assuming you don’t have Prime or HBO).  I was also able to get Finding Dory for $9.99.  Fact is, there are always specials like this.  You just have to keep your eyes out for them.  Of course, with the Roku, you can create a “Watch List” which will alert you to the price changes.

Overall, if you are looking to get a video for your child, it is better to get it on Amazon Video and watch it on a mobile device or a Roku.  If you are giving it to your child for Christmas, just give them a coloring book or something and tell them Santa also got the video.  Trust me, they are not going to care if they get to play with the DVD or watch it on the TV.

Bobby Valentine’s Second Greatest Achievement

Recent reports indicate that President Elect Donald Trump is considering Bobby Valentine as the United States Ambassador to Japan.  If Valentine is indeed selected as the Ambassador to Japan, it would be his second biggest accomplishment.  Naturally, his biggest accomplishment was leading the 2000 Mets not only to the postseason, but to the National League Pennant.

As luck would have it, the New York Mets would begin the season in Japan.  Valentine’s Opening Day outfield was Rickey HendersonDarryl HamiltonDerek Bell.  Of that group, only Bell would play in a postseason game for the Mets, and he would be injured in Game One of the NLDS.  Henderson would prove to be a malcontent that wanted a new contract, and ultimately, he would be released in May.  Hamilton would lose his job in April after suffering a toe injury.  This led to the Mets outfield being Benny AgbayaniJay Payton-Bell for most of the season.

The one thing Agbayani could do was hit.  In 2000, he hit .289/.391/.477 with 15 homers and 60 RBI in 119 games.  However, he was a terrible fielder who did this in the field during a game that season:

 

For his part, Payton was one of the heralded players out of Georgia Tech that included Jason Varitek and Nomar Garciaparra.  While Payton was once considered on par with them, if not better.  As a prospect, Payton’s star would diminish a bit, but he would still become a major league player.  In his 2000 rookie season, Payton relatively struggled at the plate hitting .291/.331/.447 with 17 homers and 62 RBI in 149 games.

There was more than that.  Valentine also had to help make Todd Zeile an effective first baseman after he spent most of his career as a third baseman.  Zeile was of course signed to replace John Olerud, who departed in free agency.  While Zeile had a nice season hitting .268/.356/.467 with 22 homers and 79 RBI, his production fell far short of Olerud’s .298/.427/.463, 19 homer run, 96 RBI season.  When you consider the drop off defensively from the Gold Glover Olerud to the quickly adapting Zeile, the team was noticeably worse at first base.

The team was also worse at shortstop.  While Rey Ordonez never hit for much, he was a Gold Glover at shortstop.  The Mets would miss that defense after he broke his left arm trying to get a tag down in May.  This led to the Mets trying to get by with Melvin Mora at shortstop, who struggled at the plate and in the field.  This led to the ill advised trade for Mike Bordick who would hit .260/.321/.365 in his 56 games as a Met.

In reality, this was all part of a Mets team that was considerably weaker than the 1999 version.  Pat Mahomes was nowhere near as good as he was in 1999.  In place of well established veterans like Orel Hershiser and Kenny Rogers in the rotation, the Mets had Glendon Rusch and the return of Bobby Jones.  However, it should be noted the rotation was one area the Mets were better.

Whereas the 1999 Mets were an offensive juggernaut with a strong bullpen, the 2000 Mets were built on starting pitching.  Al Leiter had an improved season making him 1A behind the ace the Mets acquired in the offseason, Mike Hampton.  With Rusch and Jones outperforming their expectations, and quite possibly what their rotation counterparts did in 1999, the rotation was one area the Mets were improved.

The rotation along with two terrific players in Mike Piazza and Edgardo Alfonzo, Valentine was able to lead the Mets to the World Series.  Valentine was able to do that despite a diminished offense, vastly diminished defense, an overall less talented roster, and some drama (which usually follows Valentine wherever he goes).  It was a team that outperformed their Pythagorean win-loss record by six games.  It was a team that outperformed expectations.

Making it to the 2000 World Series should be considered Valentine’s biggest accomplishment.  That Mets team really had no business making it to the postseason let alone the World Series.  It is why that should stand as Valentine’s biggest accomplishment even if he were to be named as President Trump’s choice to be the Ambassador to Japan.

Mets Internal Bullpen Options

Lets start with the caveat that the non-elite closer bullpen market has yet to fully materialize.  Once Kenley Jansen picks his team, it appears as if the market for the next tier of relievers, which includes possible Mets targets in Brad Ziegler and Koji Uehara, will begin to emerge.  It is also possible the Mets could trade Jay Bruce or some other players for bullpen help.

With those caveats in mind, there are two issues confronting the Mets bullpen.  The first is that many relievers who could help the Mets in 2017 may move out of their price range, especially with Sandy Alderson announcing the team has to reduce its current payroll.  The other obvious issue is the Mets have to somehow contend with the possibility that Jeurys Familia may be gone for a significant portion of the season.  With that in mind, the Mets may very well have to look internally to fill one or more of the holes in their bullpen.

This begs the question about whether they can do it.  Here is a look at some of the options for the 2017 season to determine whether or not the Mets current bullpen issues can be solved internally:

Josh Edgin

2016 MLB Stats: 1-0, 5.23 ERA, 16 G, 10.1 IP, 1.548 WHIP, 9.6 K/9

2016 MiLB Stats: 2-2, 3.11 ERA, 43 G, 37.2 IP, 1.540 WHIP, 10.8 K/9

In his first season back from Tommy John surgery, the biggest thing that stuck out for Edgin was his loss of velocity.  Once, Edgin was a reliever who came out of the bullpen throwing 94 MPH.  In 2016, Edgin loss three MPH off his fastball, and as a result, he went from limiting right-handed batters to a .219/.286/.250 batting line in his breakout 2014 season to a .300/.400/.500 batting line in 2016.

It should be noted the numbers from the 2014 and 2016 seasons are both relatively small sample sizes.  Additionally, Edgin continued to pitch well against left-handed batters in 2016 limiting them to a .235/.300/.235 batting line.  With that Edgin proved he can still be an effective LOOGY out of the pen even with this reduced velocity.  If Edgin were to regain that velocity, he can fully take over the role left vacated by Jerry Blevins.

Sean Gilmartin

2016 MLB Stats: 0-1, 7.13 ERA, 14 G, GS, 17.2 IP, 1.585 WHIP, 5.6 K/9

2016 MiLB Stats: 9-7, 4.86 ERA, 19 G, 18 GS, 107.1 IP, 1.425 WHIP, 7.9 K/9

Despite Gilmartin being an important part of the Mets 2015 bullpen, the team decided it was better for him to work on being a starting pitcher in AAA rather than him reprising his role as the long man in the bullpen.  While he started out well for the 51s, he would eventually begin to suffer some shoulder discomfort, which required a stint on the disabled list, and his stats would suffer from there.  It probably didn’t help that the Mets expected him to take cross-country flights and make multiple inning appearances out of the bullpen with three days of rest or less.  Ultimately, we have seen Gilmartin be successful in the major leagues out of the bullpen, and accordingly, we should not discount the possibility he will be successful out of the bulllpen again in 2017.

Seth Lugo

2016 MLB Stats: 5-2, 2.67 ERA,  17 G, 8 GS, 64.0 IP, 1.094 WHIP, 6.3 K/9

2016 MiLB Stats: 3-4, 6.50, 21 G, 14 GS, 73.1 IP, 1.677 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

After Lugo struggled in AAA, he was taken out of the rotation, and he was put in the bullpen.  For a guy that can max out his fastball over 95 MPH and has a terrific curveball, it seemed like the best place for him in a Mets organization with plenty of pitching depth.  When he first came up to the majors and made Anthony Rizzo look foolish with his curveball, it seemed like Lugo had a home in the bullpen.

However, with the starting pitching injuries mounting, Lugo was thrust into the rotation.  With a postseason berth on the line, he combined with fellow rookie Robert Gsellman to pitch extremely well.  It is now debatable as to whether or not the bullpen is the best use of Lugo’s talents.  It is all the more debatable when you consider the Mets rotation has some injury concerns and is likely going to deal with some innings limits.  With that in mind, while Lugo has certainly proven himself to be an effective reliever, he may be best suited to either the fifth spot in the rotation, or starting the year in the AAA rotation and being ready for the first opportunity that arises.

Paul Sewald

2016 MiLB Stats: 5-3, 3.29 ERA, 56 G, 19 SV, 65.2 IP, 1.203 WHIP, 11.0 K/9

With Sewald not being selected in the Rule 5 Draft, he is now a possibility to be a part of the Mets bullpen in 2017.  The issue with Sewald is his stuff is not that impressive with him only topping out in the low 90s with his fastball.  However, that overlooks the fact that he has a good slider which he uses as an out pitch, and the fact he rarely walks batters.  In his minor league career, he has only walked 59 batters in 258.0 innings pitched.

Another factor to consider is how well he pitched in the Pacific Coast League, which is a hitter’s haven.  In the second half of the season, Sewald made 20 appearances going 1-1 with a 1.98 ERA, 10 saves, 0.95 WHIP, and an 11.8 K/9.  In looking over his entire minor league career, Sewald has rarely walked batters, has struck out over 10 batters per nine, has had low ERAs, and has consistently been a good closer.  With his experience, talent, and the Mets catchers excellent pitch framing, there is every reason to believe Sewald has a legitimate chance to be a good reliever in the major leagues.

Josh Smoker

2016 MLB Stats: 3-0, 4.70 ERA, 20 G, 15.1 IP, 1.304 WHIP, 14.7 K/9

2016 MiLB Stats: 3-2, 4.11 ERA, 52 G, 57.0 IP, 1.474 WHIP, 12.8 K/9

The Smoker we saw with the Mets was essentially the Smoker that we have seen in his minor league career.  Smoker is a one inning reliever who strikes out a lot of batters, but he has reverse splits.  Whereas Edgin is a LOOGY, Smoker is somehow a left-handed ROOGY that gets tattooed by left-handed hitting.  Another issue for Smoker is he is only good for one inning.  Every single outing he was asked to go over one inning by the Mets, he allowed a home run.

Still, there is a place for a pitcher like Smoker in the bullpen.  His ability to generate strikeouts at a level as high as he does is rare, and it is very valuable.

Zack Wheeler

2014 Stats: 11-11, 3.54 ERA, 32 G, 32 GS, CG, SHO, 185.1 IP, 1.327 WHIP, 9.1 K/9

With Wheeler missing two seasons, the Mets have already bandied the idea of putting Wheeler and his 96 MPH fastball in the bullpen.  On the one hand, it seems like it is a good opportunity for Wheeler to get back to pitching to major league batters while keeping his inning down after missing the past two seasons while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

There are some issues with Wheeler in the bullpen.  The first is he has a tendency to lose the strike zone which is a huge problem for short inning relievers.  The second is, as we saw with Jim Henderson, Terry Collins has a tendency to overlook his relievers injury issues and overwork them anyway.  The third and final issue is what type of reliever will he be?  Is he going to be a multi-inning reliever who will be shut down for a couple of days afterwards, or is he going to be a one inning reliever expected to air it out for one inning.

The answer to that and many other questions will be resolved once the Mets ultimately decide what Wheeler is.  Is he someone that can rejoin the rotation, or is he someone forever slated to the bulllpen?  At this point, it is hard to know the answer.

Overall, the Mets have plenty of internal options to fill-out their bullpen.  Indeed, if they were to use only internal options, it is possible the Mets could build themselves a very good bullpen.  However, if the Mets were to purely stick with internal options, it remains possible the Mets may expose their starting rotation by not having pitchers like Gilmartin, Lugo, or Wheeler sufficiently stretched out to start.

Ulimately, the Mets would be wise to use some of their internal options to help build their bullpen in 2017.  With that said, the team is still going to need to obtain one or two relievers before the end of the offseason.

Trivia Friday – Mets Rule 5 Draft Picks

Yesterday, the Mets dodged a bullet with neither Paul Sewald or Phillip Evans being drafted in the Rule 5 Draft.  With the Mets having a full 40 man roster, they were effectively prevented from selecting a player in the Rule 5 Draft.  However, in the past, the team was able to drafted very useful players who helped the major league team.  Can you name all of the players the Mets have selected in the Rule 5 Draft?  Good luck!


Bob Moorhead, Aubrey Gatewood, Ted Schreiber, Don Rowe, John Bukowski, Richard Gardner, Jerry Hinsley, Robert Nash, Billy Murphy, Bill Hepler, Tommie Reynolds, Bart Shirley, John Sullivan, Clyde Mashore, Don Wilkinson, Wayne Garrett, Jorge Roque, Rogers Brown, Billy Smith, Charlie Corbell, Brad Knackert, Doug Simons, Mike Draper, Kelly Stinnett, Kevin Lomon, Kevin Northrup, Jim Baron, Jim Mann, Julio Santana, Mitch Wylie, Steven Register, Darren O’Day, Rocky Cherry, Carlos Monasterios, Brad Emaus, Pedro Beato, Kyle Lobstein, Seth Rosin, Sean Gilmartin

Frank Brooks