There have been several reasons that have been indicated for the uptick of votes for players like Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens on this year’s Hall of Fame voting. Some point to the dubious election of Bud Selig. Others will wrongly used Mike Piazza‘s induction into the Hall of Fame as a justification. More believe this is just a reflection of the changing Hall of Fame electorate. Whatever the case, there is no doubt that Bonds and Clemens have received more support this year than they have in past years.
Using Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, Bonds and Clemens respectively received 44.3% and 45.2% of the vote last year. In published votes, Bonds and Clemens respectively received 47.3% and 47.2% of the vote. This year those vote totals are way up. With there being 163 published ballots this year, Bonds and Clemens have respectively received 69.5% and 68.9% of the vote. That is a huge jump from where they were last year.
At this point, it is fair to say people are beginning to judge players like Bonds and Clemens on their numbers alone. They are beginning the process of either ignoring, compartmentalizing, justifying, or even not caring about the effects steroids have had on each player’s numbers. More and more voters are saying it does not matter if these numbers are enhanced in any way. Rather, they are saying the numbers these players put up deserve induction into the Hall of Fame.
With that being the case, where is the support for Larry Walker?
Now, the Hall of Fame case of Larry Walker has not been hindered by any allegations of steroids use. Rather, voters have not voted for him because his numbers were inflated by his playing at Coors Field.
Buster Olney, a writer who has supported the induction of Bonds and Clemens before forever abstaining in his Hall of Fame voting, said regarding Walker, “The difference in the numbers between Walker in Coors Field and on the road are enormous, to the degree that you’re not quite sure what to make of his performance; was he a superstar or a really, really good player? I’ve thought that the baseball writers are in the same position judging Walker that the Colorado front office has been in when assessing its own talent: Exactly how good are they?” (Patrick Saunders, Denver Post).
Before giving up his vote, it should be noted Olney never did vote for Walker despite voting for players like Bonds, Clemens, and Rafael Palmeiro in his last ever ballot submitted. Notably, Olney took no issue with stats enhanced by steroids use, but he had a real problem with stats enhanced by Coors Field. Apparently, he’s not the only one.
So far this year, out of the 116 people who voted for either Bonds or Clemens, only 24 writers voted for Walker as well. Now, there are a myriad of reasons why people could justify not voting for Walker. For some, they noted injuries. For others, they note this is still a loaded ballot, and Walker remains just short. Still, the overriding factor for the lack of support for Walker is the Coors Field thin air of suspicion that Walker’s numbers were aided by his home ballpark.
For example, Jeff Fletcher, who voted for Bonds and Clemens, noted that one reason he withheld his vote for Walker in this year’s Hall of Fame election was Walker’s home-road splits. Another writer, Scott Priestle, voted for Bonds and Clemens, and yet, he has not voted for Walker due to the perceived Coors Field effect. Assuredly, they are not the only ones who have withheld their vote due to the perceived Coors Field effect. They are certainly not the only ones who have voted for steroids users while not voting for Walker.
And yes, Walker greatly benefited from playing at Coors Field. Over the course of his career, Walker hit .381/.462/.710 with 154 homers and 521 RBI in 597 games at Coors Field. At Coors Field, he was 23 points higher than his career .313 batting average, 62 points higher than his career .400 OBP, and 145 points higher than his .565 slugging. Walker hit 40% of his career homers and RBI at Coors Field as well. Overlooking these numbers, it is hard to argue that Walker put up Hall of Fame caliber numbers due to his 10 years as a Colorado Rockie.
Somehow there are writers that are holding this against him while casting votes for Bonds, Clemens, and other players who have been definitively linked to steroids use. It begs the question why stats increased through ill gotten means are more virtuous and/or more legitimate than numbers legally put up at a ballpark authorized by Major League Baseball? It begs the question why Walker gets penalized for Coors Field while Bonds and Clemens are rewarded for steroids.
If it doesn’t make sense to you, it shouldn’t. It’s a double standard. It’s one that needs to end before Walker loses enough support to fall off the ballot. It’s one that needs to end in order for him to be inducted into Cooperstown.
Depending on what your personal politics are, there was a moment or 31 that led you to believe that fake news had become an important issue during the election. For people that follow politics, it was a new and stunning revelation. If you are a baseball fan, particularly one who is invested in Hall of Fame voting, you have been well aware of this problem.
Despite having the numbers to be a first ballot Hall of Famer, Mike Piazza had been largely kept off of people’s ballots due to the unfounded presumption he had used steroids during his career. That is unless you believe noted dermatologist Murray Chass and his unsupported position that Piazza having back acne was a sure indicator of steroid use. Note, there are several causes of back acne in adults that have nothing to do with steroids. Despite that people have used the back acne, as well as Piazza’s physique as the basis for their mostly unfounded belief he used steroids.
What has been peculiar is the same litmus test has been used as an indication that Jeff Bagwell used steroids, but someone like Rickey Henderson did not. Ultimately, what we have seen is a guessing game where some writers are presenting opinions as fact without any reprecussions. And yet, despite the absence of proof on players like Piazza or Bagwell, there are some who continue to insist they used steroids. Worse yet, they are using Piazza’s induction into the Hall of Fame last year as a basis to justify the induction of Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and other players who have been proven to use steroids. The latest example is Bob Nightengale:
It makes no sense to keep Bonds and Clemens out, when PED players already getting into HOF. https://t.co/UQAn1GJBYX pic.twitter.com/WKX3kxjadf
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) January 3, 2017
In his column for USA Today, Nightengale would double-down on this claim:
The BBWAA finally recognizes the absurdity of keeping Bonds and Clemens out of the Hall of Fame but letting Mike Piazza, Bagwell and soon Ivan Rodriguez into the hallowed halls.
Simply put, this is fake news. It is fake news because the is absolutely no documentation, test results or otherwise, that establishes Piazza has used illegal PEDs during his entire career. In the absence of any valid proof, this is fake news not even fit for publications such as The World Weekly News, The Onion, or the National Inquirer. Yet somehow, some way, this was published in USA Today even though it was presented as fact.
Overall, Piazza’s induction into the Hall of Fame establishes is a player who was the greatest hitter at his position deserves enshrinement into the Hall of Fame. If you wanted, you could extend Piazza’s induction coupled with Craig Biggio‘s induction into the Hall of Fame to stand for the proposition that innuendo and unfounded rumors are insufficient to prevent a worthy player from being inducted into the Hall of Fame.
However, you cannot state Piazza’s induction into the Hall of Fame stands for the proposition that steroid users should now be inducted into the Hall of Fame because, simply put, there is no incontrovertible evidence Piazza used steroids. To assert otherwise would be to propagate the issue of fake news in our society.
When the Mets and Rene Rivera avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $1.75 million salary, it was an indication Rivera was going to return to the Mets as the backup catcher. This also means the former supplemental round draft pick Kevin Plawecki is likely going to start the 2017 season as the starting catcher for the Las Vegas 51s.
Based upon the 2015 and 2016 seasons this is where Plawecki belongs as he has proven he is not yet ready to be a major league catcher. In 121 major league games, he has hit .211/.287/.285 with four homers and 32 RBI. Last year in AAA, he hit .300/.348/.484 with eight homers and 40 RBI in 55 games. These were not outstanding numbers, especially for the Pacific Coast Leauge, but they represented a marked improvement over what Plawecki has shown in the majors.
At this point, the question is Plawecki destined to be a major league player, or is he a AAAA player like Eric Campbell, who just signed a deal to play third and hit cleanup for the Hashin Tigers. The fact is with Plawecki turning 26 this February, it is still too early to determine. However, we have seen some good things from him to believe that he still can be a major league catcher.
While it was once believed Plawecki’s true value was as an offensive catcher, he has established himself as a good major league receiver. In his two years with the Mets, Plawecki has rated as a good pitch framer. Additionally, while the advanced stats for catchers are flawed, Plawecki has posted an 8 DRS in his brief major league career showing he is above average defensively behind the plate. This is impressive when you consider he has only thrown out 25% of base stealers as a major leaguer.
For the sake of comparison, Rivera has a reputation as a very good defensive catcher, and he has a career DRS of 12. On a per inning basis, Plawecki has established himself to be the better defender. However, it should be noted that Rivera has had more success throwing out base runners with his career mark of 36%. What has held Rivera back in his career has been his bat. In parts of eight major league seasons, Rivera is a .213/.264/.332 hitter who averages three homers and 15 RBI a season.
Looking at the data, it could be argued that right now Plawecki is actually a superior player to Rivera right now. However, it should be pointed out Rivera is a 33 year old journeyman catcher. When the Mets drafted Plawecki in the 2012 supplemental round, they were certainly hoping for more than just a journeyman catcher.
Ultimately, it will be Plawecki’s bat that decides whether he will be a journeyman, a career backup, or a bona fide major league starting catcher. Before he was called-up to the majors, many believed Plawecki would hit. For example, before his first call-up in 2015, The Sporting News stated:
Plawecki is a solid, reasonably polished hitter who should be an adequate contributor on offense. Overall, Plawecki has solid plate recognition, a consistent swing path and good raw power. He opts for contact over power in game settings, which will help his average but can result in weak contact on pitches he should be trying to drive.
Others felt that Plawecki had the potential to be an offensive force in the majors with, “One talent evaluator who has seen Plawecki likes as a solid everyday catcher in the majors, with enough power to hit 15-20 home runs a year.” (Mike Vorkunov, nj.com).
However, that is not the Plawecki we have seen in the major leagues. As a major leaguer, Plawecki has shown a tenency not just to pull the ball, but also to hit an exceedingly high rate of ground balls. Moreover, he infrequently makes hard contact. In today’s day and age of shifting, this has led to a number of easy ground outs to the left hand side of the infield. As a result, we see Plawecki with a low batting average and a minuscule slugging percentage.
However, the talent is still there. It is also important to remember really has not gotten sufficient time in AAA to develop. In fact, he only played in 57 games at the level before he was rushed to the majors due to a Travis d’Arnaud injury in 2015. As we saw in 2016, when he got an extended stretch of 55 games in AAA, while working with hitting coach Jack Voigt, he began getting on base more consistently and driving the ball more often just as he had done earlier in his minor league career. At a minimum, this extended stay in AAA showed Plawecki still has promise.
Only time will tell whether Plawecki will be able to hit at the major league level. However, in his career, we have seen he has the ability to hit. More importantly, we have seen he has the ability to be a good catcher behind the plate. Ultimately, Plawecki has a future in the major leagues due to his strong work behind the plate. Accordingly, despite his early career struggles, Plawecki still has value. Therefore, it is way too soon to give up on Plawecki.
With that said, he is going to have to show the Mets something sooner rather than later before the team justifiably moves on from him. The Mets have d’Arnaud at the major league level, and Tomas Nido is not too far behind him. This means that sooner or later Plawecki is going to have to do something in AAA or the majors to show the Mets he deserves one more chance to show he can be more than a journeyman.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors.
At the 2006 trade deadline, many believed the Mets were in need of a big starting pitcher to help the best team in baseball win the World Series. At that time, the big name was Barry Zito, but the Mets were reportedly balking at the asking price which included their top prospect in addition to their best set-up man in Aaron Heilman. Certainly, Heilman became untouchable with Duaner Sanchez‘s injury. However, there is still some debate whether any of the Mets prospects should have been so untouchable so as to prevent them from being moved in a trade many believed the Mets needed to make to win the World Series.
Keeping in mind the Mets didn’t want to move a top prospect, let’s take a look at who was considered the Mets Top 10 prospects back in 2006 and see how their respective careers fared:
The Mets 2003 first round draft pick was seen by many as a future star in the major leagues. He was supposed to be a five tool center fielder. Unfortunately, it did not pan out that way.
Milledge first got his chance in 2006 at first due to a Xavier Nady injury and then because of Nady being traded to sure up their bullpen due to the Sanchez injury. Milledge would show he was not quite ready for the limelight. That shouldn’t be surprising considering he had only played 84 games in AAA, and he was 21 years old. In 56 games, he would only hit .241/.310/.380 with four homers and 22 RBI. He would be unfairly chastised for high fiving the fans after a game tying home run in extra innings.
Unfortunately for him, the home run that led to much hand wringing might’ve been the top moment in his career. Milledge would never figure it out for the Mets, and his star potential would diminish. In 2007, the Mets would move him for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider.
Overall, Milledge would only play six years in the majors hitting .269/.328/.395 in parts of six major league seasons. He would play his last game for the Chicago White Sox as a 26 year old in April 2011. From there, he would play four years in Japan. In Japan, he wouldn’t re-establish himself as a major leaguer like Cecil Fielder did, nor would he become an acclaimed Japanese League player like Tuffy Rhodes. Rather, he hit a disappointing .272/.348/.447 averaging 10 home runs and 32 RBI.
Milledge suffered injuries limiting him to just 34 games in 2014 and 2015. No one would sign him to play professional baseball anywhere in 2016. In the end his professional baseball career is over at the age of 31.
Petit was the one major prospect the Mets would move to help the 2006 team. The Mets included him in a deal with Grant Psomas and Mike Jacobs for Carlos Delgado. Delgado would go on to become a slugger at first base the Mets had never truly had in their history. For his part, Petit has put together a nice major leauge career.
Petit would not figure things out until he became a San Francisco Giant in 2012. Under the tutledge of Dave Righetti and Bruce Bochy, he would become a very good long man in the bullpen. In his four years with the Giants, he as 10-7 with one save, a 3.66 ERA, and a 1.128 WHIP.
His best work was in the 2014 postseason. That year the Giants rotation was Madison Bumgarner and a group of starters the team could not truly trust to go five innings in a game. Accordingly, Petit was used almost as a piggyback starting pitcher. In that 2014 postseason, Petit would make four appearances going 3-0 with a 1.42 ERA (no runs allowed in the NLDS or NLCS) and a 0.868 WHIP.
In the past offseason, Petit was a free agent, and he signed a one year $3 million deal with the Washington Nationals with a $3 million team option for 2016. He struggled this year in his 35 relief appearances and one start going 3-5 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.323 WHIP.
In his nine year career, Petit is 23-32 with a 4.58 ERA and a 1.276 WHIP. Whether or not his option is picked up by the Nationals, we should see Petit pitch in his tenth major league season in 2017.
The Mets traded their 2004 third round pick with Dante Brinkley for Paul Lo Duca. Lo Duca was the emotional leader for the 2006 Mets that almost went to the World Series, and Hernandez never pitched in the major leagues.
Hernandez would bounce around from the Marlins to the Mariners to the Red Sox to the Royals to the White Sox and finally to the Diamondbacks. While Hernandez had shown some early promise with the Mets, he never realized it. He topped out at AAA where he would pitch for four seasons going 30-36 with a 5.80 ERA and a 1.562 WHIP.
Hernandez has not given up on his major league dream. Since 2012, Hernandez has been pitching in the Atlantic Leagues. Over the past three seasons, he has pitched Winter Ball. He made 25 starts and two relief appearances for the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, he was 7-10 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.216 WHIP. At the moment, the 30 year old Hernandez has not been signed to play for a Winter Leagues team.
The Mets 1999 38th round draft pick was part of the aforementioned trade that helped the Mets acquire Delgado. The Mets were largely able to use Jacobs as part of the trade because of the tremendous start to his career.
In 2005, Jacobs hit .310/.375/.710 with 11 homers and 23 RBI in 30 games. While Jacobs continued to be a power hitter after leaving the Mets, he would never again reach those levels. Eventually, his impatience at the plate caught up to him, and he would only only last seven years in the major leagues. His penultimate season was with the Mets in 2010 when he was unseated by Ike Davis as the Mets first baseman.
After being released by the Mets, Jacobs has spent the past six seasons in AAA with a 13 game cup of coffee for the Diamondbacks in 2012. In Jacob’s seven year career, he hit .253/.313/.473 with 100 homers and 312 RBI. As a Met, he hit .290/.360/.645 with 12 homers and 25 RBI. If he had enough at-bats to qualify, Jacobs would have the highest slugging percentage in Mets history.
At this point, it is unknown if the 35 year old Jacobs will continue playing professional baseball in 2017.
The one theme that is developing here is that while these players didn’t have a big impact in the majors or the Mets, Omar Minaya utilized these players to help the ballclub. Humber is a perfect example of that.
The Mets 2004 first round pick (third overall) had an inauspicious start to his professional career needing Tommy John surgery in 2005.
With that Humber would only make one start in his Mets career, and it wasn’t particularly good. With the Mets collapsing in the 2007, and the team having a rash of starting pitcher injuries, the team turned to the highest drafted player in their system. Humber kept the woeful Washington Nationals at bay for the first three innings before allowing Church to hit a two run homer in the fourth and then sowing the seeds for a huge rally in the fifth inning that would see the Mets once 6-0 lead completely evaporate in a frustrating 9-6 loss. This would be the last time Humber took the mound for the Mets. In his Mets career, he would make one start and four relief appearances with no decisions, a 6.00 ERA, and a 1.333 WHIP.
Still, he showed enough to be a major part in the trade that would bring Johan Santana to the Mets. Santana and Humber would both enter immortality. Santana would throw the first no-hitter in Mets history. Humber would become perhaps the unlikeliest of all pitchers to throw a perfect game. It was the 21st perfect game in baseball history. He joined David Cone as the only ex-Mets to throw a perfect game. He joined a much longer list of seven former Mets, highlighted by Nolan Ryan, who threw a no-hitter AFTER leaving the Mets. Humber would also become the pitcher with the highest career ERA to throw a perfect game.
In all, Humber played for five major league teams over his eight major league seasons. In those eight major league seasons, he has gone 16-23 with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.420 WHIP. He threw his last major league pitch in 2013 in a season he went 0-8 in 13 starts. In 2014, he pitched for the Oakland Athletics’ AAA affiliate. In 2015, he pitched for the Kia Tigers of the Korean Leagues going 3-3 with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.855 WHIP in 11 starts and one relief appearance.
Humber had signed on with the San Diego Padres and was invited to Spring Training in 2016. He was released prior to the start of the season, and he did not throw one pitch for any professional team in 2016. He is currently 33 years old, and at this point, he has not announced his retirement.
Gomez has been far and away the best player on the list of the 2006 Mets top prospects. He would be moved with Humber as a centerpiece in the Santana trade.
In Gomez’s early career, it was clear he was a Gold Glove caliber center fielder. He made highlight reel play after highlight reel play for the Twins. However, it was clear from how he was struggling at the plate, the projected five tool player wasn’t quite ready to be the hitter everyone anticipated he would be at the major league level. Eventually, the Twins traded him to the Milwaukee Brewers, and in Milwaukee, Gomez would figure it out.
In Gomez’s five plus years with the Brewers, he won a Gold Glove and was a two time All Star. He was also a coveted player at the 2015 trade deadline, and he almost became a New York Met again in exchange for Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores. As we all remember, Flores cried on the field, and the Mets front office was disappointed in Gomez’s medicals causing them to rescind the trade due to a purported hip issue.
Gomez would then be traded to the Astros, and the Mets would appear to be vindicated for their decision. Gomez played 126 games for the Astros before being released and picked up by the Texas Rangers. In Texas, Gomez began playing like the player the Mets coveted at the 2015 trade deadline. The 33 game burst came at the right time as the 30 year old Gomez will be a free agent for the first time in his career this offseason.
Overall, Gomez has played for 10 years, and he is a .257/.312/.415 hitter with 116 home runs, 453 RBI, and 239 stolen bases. He is still a good center fielder, and he may still have a couple of good seasons in front of him.
From the moment the Mets signed him as a 16 year old amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic, F-Mart was seen as a top prospect. Many imagined he would become a five tool player like a Carlos Beltran. Instead, his career went the way of Alex Ochoa.
F-Mart was the first big prize Minaya brought in when he become the General Manager of the Mets. Understandably, he was considered untouchable in trade discussions. As it turns out, the Mets wished they moved him when they had the opportunity.
F-Mart would only play in 47 games over three years with the Mets hitting just .183/.250/.290 with two homers and 12 RBI. Eventually, with him not progressing as the Mets once hoped he would, and a different regime in place, F-Mart would eventually be put on waivers and claimed by the Houston Astros. With the Astros, he would only play in 52 games over two years, and he would just hit .225/.285/.424 with seven homers and 17 RBI.
In 2013, the Astros traded him to the Yankees for minor league depth. After the 2013 season, F-Mart would become a free agent, and he would find no suitors.
In 2014, he only played in the Dominican Winter Leagues, and in 2015, he played in only seven games in the Mexican Leagues. Given how he has bounced around and seeing how many major league teams have either passed on him or have forgotten his existence, it is hard to believe that he is just 28 years old.
Hernandez is undeterred, and he is still playing baseball. Right now, he is playing alongside current Mets shortstop prospect Luis Guillorme for Spain in the World Baseball Classic qualifying rounds. Spain would go 0-2 in the European Qualifier and will not be a finalist for the World Baseball Classic.
The Mets acquired Hernandez from the Detroit Tigers in exchange for backup catcher Vance Wilson in 2005. Hernandez intrigued the Mets because he was an exceptionally skilled defensive shortstop. The question with him was whether he was ever going to hit.
Despite these questions, and with Kaz Matsui starting the year on the disabled list, Hernandez would actually be the Mets Opening Day second baseman. On Opening Day, he would show everyone why he was so highly regarded defensively with an impressive over the shoulder catch. However, Hernandez would also show he would never be able to hit at the big league level. That fact may have forever changed Mets history.
Despite hitting .152/.164/.242 in 25 games with the Mets, he would make the NLCS roster. In Game 7 of the NLCS, with the Mets trailing 3-1, Jose Valentin and Endy Chavez led off the inning with back-to-back singles. Instead of going to Hernandez to pinch-hit for Heilman to get the bunt down, Willie Randolph went to an injured Cliff Floyd to try to win the game. Floyd would strike out, and Hernandez would enter the game only as a pinch runner for Lo Duca, who had worked out a walk to load the bases. From first base, Hernandez got a good view of how the series would end. Had Hernandez been able to hit just a little bit, it is possible he would have been sent up to bunt, and maybe things would have gone differently.
Overall, Hernandez never did show the ability to hit at the major league level. The Mets gave up waiting. In 2008, with the Mets desperate for relievers to plug in holes to a decimated bullpen, Hernandez was traded to the Nationals for Luis Ayala.
Hernandez would play for four teams in six seasons hitting .241/.300/.314 with four homers and 60 RBI. While he did show he was skilled defensively, he could never hit enough to stick in the majors, and as a result, his major league career was over in 2010 when he was 27 years old.
From 2011 – 2013, Hernandez would play in AAA. For the past three seasons, he has played in the Japanese Leagues. In every season since 2006, the 33 year old has played in the Dominican Winter Leagues for Tigres del Licey. It is unknown at this point if he is going to play for the Tigres this year or if he will return to the Japanese Leagues next year.
Bannister was the Mets 2003 seventh round draft pick out of USC. He would become the first ever Brooklyn Cyclones pitcher to pitch a game for the New York Mets. Bannister had earned that right by beating out Heilman for the fifth spot in the 2006 Mets Opening Day rotation. There were a myriad of reasons including but not limited to Heilman’s importance in the bullpen.
Bannister’s career would get off to quite the start with him going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and a 1.393 WHIP. While he struggled with his command and couldn’t go very deep into games as a result, the Mets were willing to stick with him through those five starts. Unfortunately, Bannister would suffer a hamstring injury at the end of April that would linger for most of the year. By the time he was healthy, John Maine was already a fixture in the rotation. With the Mets acquiring Perez at the trade deadline, there was no longer a spot for him on the major league roster.
With there no longer being any room for him, the Mets moved him in the offseason to the Kansas City Royals for Ambiorix Burgos. It was a trade that was detrimental for both players. Bannister would pitch four years for the Royals going 35-49 with a 5.13 ERA and a 1.417 WHIP. Burgos’ Mets career was marked by ineffectiveness, injury, and domestic violence.
After going 37-50 with a 5.08 ERA and a 1.421 WHIP in his five year major league career, Bannister had signed a two year deal to pitch for the Yomiuri Giants. Bannister would never pitch for the Giants. After an earthquake and tsunami hit Japan, Bannister retired from baseball. Since the 2015 season, the 35 year old Bannister has been a professional scout for the Boston Red Sox.
In 2003, Soler defected to the Dominican Republic from Cuba. The following year he would sign a three year $2.8 million contract with the New York Mets.
Soler would only pitch for the major league club in 2006. He would make eight starts highlighted by a complete game two hit shut out of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Unfortunately, the rest of his starts weren’t as great, and he would finish the year going 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.578 WHIP. His contract would expire at the end of the season, and the Mets would not re-sign him.
Soler would pitch in 14 games, mostly out of the bullpen, for the Pittsburgh Pirates AA affiliate in 2007. In the following two seasons, Soler would return to the tri-state area pitching for the Long Island Ducks and Newark Bears of the Independent Leagues. He would not pitch well at either stop, and no one would offer him a contract to play professional baseball in 2010. In 2011, he pitched in two games in the Puerto Rican Winter Leagues. Since that time, the 37 year old Soler has not pitched in professional baseball.
At this time, it is unknown as to what Soler has been doing in his post-baseball career.
What is known is that while the top prospects from the 2006 season largely did not pan out, then Mets GM Omar Minaya was able to utilize a number of the players to improve the 2006 and 2007 Mets teams that fell just short. This has left many fans wondering what would have happened if Milledge was moved at his peak value or what would have happened if Hernandez learned how to hit. Things may have gone very differently in both of those seasons.
Still, while you could call each of these prospects, save Gomez, a bust. It is notable that nine of the 10 players played in the major leagues for multiple seasons. Three of the players played in the postseason, and one won a World Series. There have been All Star appearances and a perfect game from this group. While you expected more, each player left their own mark on the Mets and the game of baseball.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Minors.
Before tying a ribbon on 2016 and look forward to what the Mets have in store in 2017, it is time to take a quick look back at who the best Mets players were during the 2016 season. Can you name them? Good luck!
Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Bartolo Colon, Steven Matz, Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson
Until the 2016 season, Andrew McCutchen was considered a superstar, and given his part in the Pirates resurgence from their 21 consecutive losing seasons, he was one of the most important players in baseball. This is reflected in McCutchen finishing in the Top 5 in National League MVP voting for four consecutive seasons with him winning the award in 2013.
In his career, McCutchen is a .292/.381/.487 hitter who averages 24 homers and 87 RBI. With that type of production from a center fielder, the two years $18.75 million remaining on his contract is an absolute bargain. Arguably, this should make him the most untouchable player in baseball. That should go double when you consider the Pirates are a team that should compete for a playoff spot next year. Despite all of that, the Pirates have let it be known they are willing to trade McCutchen for the right price this offseason. What happened?
For starters, the 29 year old McCutchen had the worst year of his career in 2016. In 153 games, McCutchen hit .256/.336/.430 with 24 homers and 79 RBI. For a player that averaged a 6.4 WAR from 2011 – 2015, McCutchen’s -0.7 WAR in 2016 was startling.
One major reason for the drop-off was McCutchen’s WAR and value was mostly driven by his bat. In reality, aside from 2013, McCutchen has never been an even decent center fielder. In his eight year career, he has averaged a -7 DRS and a -5.9 UZR in center. Over the last three years, those numbers were even worse with him averaging a -16 DRS and a -11.3 UZR in center. Last season was the nadir with his -28 DRS and -18.7 UZR. Overall, these numbers don’t suggest, they scream McCutchen belongs in a corner outfield position.
Now, it has been suggested McCutchen is being positioned too shallow in center, and that has had an impact on his defensive metrics. As a point of reference, the Chicago Cubs moved Dexter Fowler deeper in center field in 2016, and the results were notable. Fowler went from a -12 DRS and a -1.8 UZR in 2015 to a 1 DRS and 1.0 UZR in 2016. While one year defensive metrics are typically unreliable, the results at least suggest there is room for improvement for McCutchen as a center fielder. The question is whether re-positioning him in center is enough, especially with McCutchen having previously dealt with knee issues that affected him at the plate and the field.
There may also be a reasonable explanation for his struggles at the plate last season. While unsubstantiated elsewhere, Pirates blog Rum Bunter suggested McCutchen was dealing with a wrist injury in the beginning of the season. Not knowing when it happened, it is at least plausible McCutchen was dealing with an issue whether it was the wrist, his knees, or some other undisclosed injury. Up until July 31st, McCutchen was hitting .241/.311/.408 with 15 homers and 43 RBI. After taking a few days off in the beginning of August, McCutchen seemed to return to the form we’ve expected from him. From August 5th to the end of the season, he hit .284/.381/.471 with nine homers and 36 RBI.
If you look at the end of the season McCutchen, you see some legitimate hope he could bounce back to the MVP level player he has been for most of his career. Still with knee and other issues, do you gamble on a 30 year old player regaining his superstar form, or do you gamble on your own prospects?
With Rob Biertempfel of Trib Live reporting the Pirates asked the Nationals for Lucas Giolito, who was part of the Adam Eaton trade, and Victor Robles in exchange for McCutchen, you know the price to obtain McCutchen is going to be steep. A comparable offer for the Mets would be Steven Matz and Michael Conforto, which is a price the Mets may not be willing to pay.
Nor should they. Ultimately, the litmus test is whether you are willing to gamble six years of Conforto for two of McCutchen. Do you believe that Conforto can similarly rebound from his wrist injury in the same way McCutchen did in August? Do you believe the McCutchen can improve defensively at 30 years old? Do you believe McCutchen would be better suited to center field than either Conforto or Curtis Granderson?
Even if you answer yes to all of these and many other non-posed questions, are you willing to include a potential front line starting pitcher and possibly other pieces to find out if you’re right? That’s the dilemma in trading for McCutchen. If you’re right, you could have an MVP player that could help the Mets win a World Series. If you’re wrong, you’ve given up a huge part of your future for something you already had in Granderson.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online.
In 2015, the Mets not only won the National League East, but they went all the way to the World Series. During that wonderfully unexpected run, the team left a bevvy of left-handed relievers in their wake. Time and again, the team tried to solve their presumed issues with not having a left-handed reliever to no avail. Here is a look at all the left-handed relievers they went through that season:
- Josh Edgin – needed Tommy John surgery before the season began
- Jerry Blevins – appeared in seven games before suffering a broken arm
- Alex Torres – pitched to a 1.515 WHIP and was released on August 4th
- Sean Gilmartin – used as a long man in the bullpen due in part to his reverse splits
- Jack Leathersich – shuttled back and forth between New York and Las Vegas before his season ended due to him needing Tommy John surgery
- Dario Alvarez – appeared in six games before suffering a groin injury that cost him the rest of the season
- Eric O’Flaherty – 13.50 ERA and left off the postseason roster
The lack of the left-handed pitcher did not prevent this team from making it to the postseason or to going to the World Series. The main reason is that team’s right-handed relievers could pitch to left-handed batters. In fact, the batting lines suggests the right-handed relievers performed just as well as a LOOGY would:
- Jeurys Familia .214/.291/.325
- Tyler Clippard .137/.231/.237
- Addison Reed .253/.330/.368
- Hansel Robles .179/.287/.299
The moral of the story is that you do not need a left-handed pitcher to get out left-handed batters. Rather, you need pitchers who are effective at pitching against left-handed batters to get them out.
There are some caveats. First, the Mets did go with Jon Niese as the left-hander in the bullpen during the 2015 postseason, and he did get some big outs including a key strike out of Anthony Rizzo in the NLCS. Second, Blevins was an extremely important part of the 2016 bullpen. Without Blevins in the bullpen, it is quite possible the Mets do not get one of the two Wild Card spots. This creates a problem as Blevins is now a free agent – a free agent that is about to cash in on a terrific year.
So far, we have seen arguably less talented left-handed relievers get big contracts. Brett Cecil received a four year $30.5 million contract from the Cardinals. Marc Rzepczynski received a two year $11 million contract from the Mariners. Mike Dunn received a three year $19 million from the Colorado Rockies. According to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, Blevins was already seeking a three year deal worth $5-$6 million per season. Based upon the contracts already handed out, it is easy to assume Blevins will get the deal he is seeking.
However, it should be noted that deal is likely not coming from the Mets. As already noted, Sandy Alderson does not want to give out multi-year deals to relievers. Furthermore, it does not not appear the Mets are interested in investing $6 million a year on a left-handed reliever. With that being the case, the Mets best chance might be to revert to the 2015 model thrust upon them.
From that team, Familia, Reed, and Robles still remain, and they are still effective as ever in getting left-handed batters out. Here were their stats from the 2016 season:
- Familia .239/.315/.313
- Reed .210/.264/.269
- Robles .179/.287/.299
There is also some promise with Edgin. Despite him not fully regaining his velocity after his Tommy John surgery, he still showed the ability to get left-handed batters out in a very small sample size. In 2016, he faced 20 left-handed batters, and he limited them to a .235/.300/.235 batting line.
Between, Familia, Reed, Robles, and Edgin, the 2017 Mets may already have sufficient bullpen depth to get left-handed batters out. Moreover, with the Mets resportedly wanting to cut payroll from where it currently stands, the team may be forced to stick in-house and instead seek a seventh inning reliever.
That is certainly a justifiable route because the bullpen as constructed already has enough depth to get left-handed batters out. As such, the team does not need to add a left-hander for the sake of adding a left-hander.
With Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia in the fold, the Mets have their eighth and ninth innings guys set up for next year. In 2016, that tandem was the best in baseball. However, it was also the most taxed. The duo pitched more innings than any other reliever combination in the major leagues. The main reason is that the Mets played many close games that necessitated Terry Collins going to the whip with them time and time again. It was needed in the regular season, but as we saw in September and the Wild Card Game, they were beginning to show some signs of fatigue. With that, obtaining a seventh inning reliever, preferably one with closing experience, should be a high priority this offseason.
With that in mind, the Mets should re-sign Fernando Salas.
Salas had a Reed-like impact on the 2016 Mets. In 17 appearances, Salas was 0-1 with a 2.08 ERA, a 0.635 WHIP, and a 9.9 K/9. With that, Salas completely took over the seventh inning, and he allowed both Reed and Familia some rest down the stretch. Understandably, between his usage and his statistics prior to joining the Mets, you could expect him to regress. That’s almost assuredly true of his 0.635 WHIP. However, his regression would not be as troublesome as one would have you believe because, like Reed, Salas has benefited tremendously from the Mets exceptional pitch framing.
Keep in mind, there was not change to Salas’ stuff or his pitching patters when he became a Met. It is similar to Reed who became a completely different pitcher when he became a Met. Before joining the Mets, Reed had a 4.20 ERA and a 1.275 WHIP. In Reed’s season plus with the Mets, he has a 1.84 ERA and a 0.957 WHIP. When Reed became a Met, he didn’t develop a new pitch or pitching patters. Rather, it was the Mets catchers getting the extra strike for him.
It is something Reed emphasized when he said of Travis d’Arnaud, “There’s been a couple of times just this season that I’ve went back and looked at video just because I wanted to see how low the ball was, and how good of a strike (d’Arnaud) made it look. He’s the best I’ve ever thrown to at doing that. Just the way he frames the ball, it’s unbelievable. He makes balls that are four or five inches below the zone look like they’re almost right down the middle by just the way he flicks his wrist. I couldn’t even tell you how he does it.” (ESPN.com)
Given the pitch framing having a similar impact on Salas, you could expect Salas to have a similarly terrific 2017 season. With that, Collins can be more judicious in how he uses both Reed and Familia. This would permit all three pitchers to be fresh come the stretch run to the 2017 postseason; and hopefully, dominant all the way up until the World Series.
Another important point is that pitching in New York is a completely different animal. Some guys can do it and others can’t. The best and most recent example of this was Antonio Bastardo. Prior to joining the Mets, Bastardo had a 3.58 ERA and a 1.198 WHIP. He spent 2015 with the Pirates, and he was 4-1 with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.134 WHIP. Those numbers were why the Mets gave him a fairly lucrative deal for a seventh inning reliever.
Sure enough, Bastardo was terrible with the Mets. Bastardo made 41 appearances with the Mets with a 4.74 ERA and a 1.420 WHIP. Things got so bad, the Mets actually welcomed back Jon Niese and the Mets actually giving the Pirates some money in the deal. Naturally, Bastardo pitched better with the Pirates with him having a 4.13 ERA and a 1.250 WHIP in 28 games for them.
Simply put, Bastardo is the risk you take when you sign free agent middle relievers who have never pitched in New York. At the time of the signing, no one knew if Bastardo could pitch in New York. Conversely, we found out that Salas absolutely could pitch in New York, and that he could pitch with a postseason berth on the line in New York. With that in mind, the Mets should make every effort to bring back Salas to pitch in the bullpen next year . . . regardless of what happens with Familia.
Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online