So far this season, the New York Mets have disappointed. When a team disappoints to this level, people begin to look for scapegoats, and almost always that is the manager. With the Mets, Mickey Callaway is a ripe target as he had a disappointing 2018 season with some real issues like having Jay Bruce bat out of order. The Mets start this season has done little to instill confidence he’s progressing.
The question is whether he is the biggest issue. Arguably, he isn’t. It’s the offense.
So far this season, the Mets rank 21st in the Majors in runs scored putting them squarely in the bottom third of the league. This is a component in their having been outscored by 27 runs so far this year. For comparison’s sake the Mets pitching staff have allowed the fifth fewest runs allowed.
With the offense, there are a number of problems. Wilson Ramos hasn’t hit at all, and he has a career and Major League worst ground ball rate. Todd Frazier hasn’t hit either, and it should come as no surprise he also has a career worst ground ball rate. Robinson Cano is struggling, and he currently has a career worst strike out rate. The list goes on and on including Brandon Nimmo and Keon Broxton.
When you break it all down, the peripheral numbers are terrible. The Mets have third worst ground ball and GB/FB rates in the majors. As a team, they’ve accumulated the fourth most strikeouts in the Majors. The team is in the bottom third in the Majors in HR/FB, hard hit percentage, and homers. For all the preaching about situational hitting, their five sacrifice flies are the third fewest in the Majors.
In total, the team’s 98 wRC+ puts them in the bottom half of the league. Put another way, this is exactly what a Chili Davis‘ offense looks like, and it is why the Mets are Davis’ third job in as many years. Overall, while his uniform has changed, he hasn’t:
| Team | GB% | GB/FB | HR/FB | K% | wRC+ |
| 2019 Mets | 46.5% | 1.41 | 12.8% | 25.4% | 98 |
| 2018 Cubs | 46.0% | 1.41 | 10.4% | 21.8% | 100 |
| 2015-2017 Red Sox | 45.6% | 1.34 | 11.7% | 18.7% | 101 |
At the end of last season, Cubs President of Baseball Operations said, “Something happened to our offense in the second half,. We stopped walking, we stopped hitting home runs, we stopped hitting the ball in the air, and we stopped being productive. Not being able to get to two runs that many times in the second half is really unacceptable.” (MLB.com).
After the 2017 season, Red Sox Owner John Henry said, “I think we would’ve had significant power last year if we had a different approach.” (Mass Live). He would add, “I didn’t think we were nearly aggressive enough and I think our approach was lacking for a good part of the season.”
Ultimately, when you look at the numbers and what the Cubs and Red Sox had to say, the Mets should not be surprised with their offensive output this season. Looking at the numbers, the Mets are getting exactly what they should have expected when they hired Chili Davis.
With Todd Zeile taking over in the booth while Ron Darling battles thyroid cancer, it is interesting to consider how the Mets have come to claim Zeile. He played 16 years and for 11 franchises, and he played with the Cardinals more than he played for the Mets. What is also interesting with Zeile is his 11 franchises is not a Major League record. That ties him just for sixth all time. Can you name the five players who have played for more? Good luck!
Octavio Dotel Edwin Jackson Mike Morgan Matt Stairs Ron Villone
The Mets went out to San Diego already under .500 and incapable of scoring runs. At least for one day, they figured things out, and suddenly things don’t look so bad:
- The Mets schedule so far this year has been idiotic including the team having a two city road trip to Milwaukee and San Diego. Someone should get the person in charge of making the schedules a map of the United States.
- If Chris Paddack was a Met, the fans would love this. In fact, they did when it was Matt Harvey before he had the audacity of getting injured.
- If Pete Alonso is going to hit homers and celebrate on the field, he is going to make himself a target for other teams. This was a good test for him. While he failed the first part striking out twice, popping out, and whining, he responded the perfect way by hitting the go-ahead homer and having a great bat flip.
- Aside from needing to respond to the challenge, he needed a good game because he went into that game hitting .184/.241/.347 over his previous 13 games.
- It wasn’t just Alonso who got off the snide, Brandon Nimmo snapped an 0-for-28 streak which was one off Eric Campbell‘s Mets hitless record. Instead of struggling, he’s Nimmo again with him going 2-for-6 with two doubles and three walks over his last two games.
- At least Robinson Cano was good for a day, but the Mets needs more than just the sporadic outburst from him.
- No one should fault the Mets for rejiggering the lineup to try to get things going, and with the way Amed Rosario has been hitting, it was smart putting him in the second spot in the lineup. However, this is a patch and not a fix, and when Jed Lowrie is finally activated, it is time to move him back down the lineup.
- Once Lowrie is activated, Todd Frazier has to go to the bench. While his defense has been great, his bat has been that bad.
- There is way too much hand-wringing over Keon Broxton, J.D. Davis, and Adeiny Hechavarria. They’re not that good, and no one should be that worried with them being designated for assignment or headed to Triple-A. Instead, they should be worried about what makes up the best composition of the bench and how it complements the roster.
- Indications are if Davis goes to Triple-A, he will work on the outfield. It’s bizarre the Mets would do that with him while simultaneously not even allowing Dominic Smith to work out there.
- Speaking of Smith, the Mets really could have used a left-handed bat off the bench during this road trip.
- It’s not just Frazier who has been bad. It’s the majority of the lineup. While you may expect this to be a blip, this may be Chili Davis‘ influence as his other teams have done the same exact thing.
- Wilson Ramos has a career worst ground ball rate, and there aren’t really signs of him turning things around right now.
- Tomas Nido had offseason LASIK surgery. If his hitting is that much improved, given how well he plays defensively, the Mets are going to need to find him more playing time, especially given Ramos’ struggles.
- The heart says Jeff McNeil looks like an MVP candidate, but the mind sees a staggering .400 BABIP with a low walk rate and wonders when exactly the regression is going to come.
- Brodie Van Wagenen built a team with zero starting pitching depth, and he was forced to trade for Wilmer Font to start a game despite Font not actually being a starting pitcher. It is beyond amusing the Mets had to go to Chaim Bloom to bail them out for the actions of the General Manager who doesn’t quite know what he’s doing.
- After a rough start, Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman have been terrific, and they are giving the Mets every opportunity to win these games.
- Michael Conforto going in an 0-for-12 streak where he is still drawing walks and getting on base is a testament to how great a player he is becoming.
- More than anyone Conforto gets screwed on balls outside of the strike zone. That’s not just guessing or fan overreaction either, it’s fact.
- Mets fans need to stop over-criticizing Mickey Callaway. Who cares if he didn’t throw a tantrum after that bogus third strike call? The team still rallied after it, so it’s quite possible he has the pulse of this team. After all, Callaway did have the team playing hard last year.
The all-in Mets who dared everyone to come get them started Wilmer Font against the San Diego Padres. That happened because Jason Vargas and Steven Matz are hurt, and Brodie Van Wagenen could not be bothered to build starting pitching depth this offseason leaving him to trade a PTBNL for Font.
Font isn’t a true starter, but he was pressed into duty. Fortunately for the Mets, he would acquit himself well and not be the reason why the Mets lost.
In four innings, he’d allow two earned on three hits with no walks and a strikeout. This is better than what the Mets could’ve expected, but it wasn’t enough for the struggling Mets offense.
The Mets had grabbed a lead in the game almost immediately due to a Jeff McNeil hustle double to lead off the game followed by an Amed Rosario RBI single. Rosario would then be stranded. That’s certainly been a theme for the Mets of late.
After the Tomas Nido solo shot in the second, the Mets had a 2-0 lead. As noted, Font gave it back, but when you start Font, you should expect that to happen.
After the second, the game was effectively won by Manuel Margot, who has always killed the Mets. He’d rob Pete Alonso of a homer in the sixth.
In the seventh, Michael Conforto would leadoff the inning with a walk, and he’d steal second base. However, he wouldn’t score on a Jeff McNeil double because Conforto thought Margot caught the ball. It also didn’t help Nido and Todd Frazier struck out to end that rally.
Hunter Renfroe, who like Margot kills the Mets, would homer off Tyler Bashlor in the seventh. It was the only run the Mets bullpen allowed that one run due to the strong work of Robert Gsellman and Drew Gagnon.
The Mets would have a chance in the ninth despite just a horrendous third strike call against Conforto.
https://twitter.com/yayroger/status/1126250818641047552?s=21
As noted by the great Jacob Resnick, Conforto gets more balls called strikes against him than anyone not named Cody Bellinger or Domingo Santana.
Despite the horrid calls from the umps on balls and strikes, the Mets would put together a two out rally. J.D. Davis hit an infield single, and Nimmo walked.
This put the game in Nido’s hands. He was having a great game. He was 2-for-3 with the homer. He picked a guy off first base.
But against Kirby Yates, he struck out on three pitches. With that strikeout, the Mets lost the series and finished the road trip 1-5. Fortunately, they’re coming home to a weak schedule.
With Travis d’Arnaud struggling in his limited chances since returning from Tommy John surgery, he was designated for assignment. Instead of seeking to outright him to Syracuse, the Mets opted to release d’Arnaud. Now, d’Arnaud is reunited with Bob Geren in Los Angeles. It’s easy to forget now, but with Geren being the Mets catching coach, he got the very best out of d’Arnaud.
Back in 2012, the Mets would trade reigning Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey to the Toronto Blue Jays for a package which included d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard. At that point, d’Arnaud was the best known prospect, and he was certainly a coveted one having previously been traded the Phillies to the Blue Jays so the team could obtain Roy Halladay.
The book on d’Arnaud was he was going to be a good hitting catcher. Being a good hitter or even a catcher was something which was next to impossible to ascertain when d’Arnaud was first called up to the majors in 2013. He didn’t hit at all, and he struggled mightily behind the plate. After that year, d’Arnaud would put his work in and become a much better player.
While the bat never quite materialized the way we anticipated, he did became very good behind the plate. We saw d’Arnaud become one of the best pitch framers in the game. It was one of the reasons why he was in the top 10 in Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, and it was one of the reasons why the Mets would take off in 2015.
Like he would most of his career, d’Arnaud would have injury issues in 2015, but he would be an impactful player when he was on the field. His elite pitch framing helped a staff featuring Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Syndergaard not only win the division, but also go all the way to the World Series. It gets overlooked, but d’Arnaud didn’t contribute with his strong play behind the plate, he also contributed as a hitter.
In the 2015 postseaon, d’Arnaud would hit three homers. That included one in Game 1 of the NLCS which would actually hit the Home Run Apple, which led the Mets to put a temporary band-aid on it prior to Game 2.
Of course, the homers overlook his key moments in the NLDS. In a pivotal Game 3, it was d’Arnaud who hit the RBI single which tied the game in the second, and it was d’Arnaud who hit the three run homer in the third which helped the Mets begin to pull away. We also forget with the heroics of deGrom, Jeurys Familia, and Daniel Murphy in Game 5, it was d’Arnaud who had the sacrifice fly which had tied the game setting the stage for the Mets to eventually take the lead and head to the NLCS.
After the 2015 season, d’Arnaud would deal with injuries including the torn UCL which practically cost him the entire 2018 season. Still, when he played, he was a terrific pitch framer, who was an asset to his pitching staff. He would still have the occasional highlight like his 16th inning homer against the Marlins.
One thing which really stuck out with d’Arnaud was how he was a team first player. In his tenure with the Mets, he wore three different numbers partially because he changed from number 7 to accomodate Jose Reyes when he returned to the organization. There was also the August 16, 2017 game which will live in infamy.
With both Wilmer Flores and Reyes unable to play due to injuries, and with Gavin Cecchini and Matt Reynolds unable to arrive from Las Vegas in time for the game, it meant someone was going to have to play out of position. That player would be d’Arnaud, who donned David Wright‘s mitt while switching back and forth between second and third with Asdrubal Cabrera. The lineup card was a mess with it reading d’Arnaud played “3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B-2B-3B.”
In the game, d’Arnaud would hit a game tying sacrifice fly in the sixth. Despite all of Terry Collins‘ machinations, the ball would finally find d’Arnaud when Todd Frazier popped it up to him in the ninth. With d’Arnaud securing it, he now stands as the Mets all-time leader in fielding percentage among Mets second baseman.
When it comes to d’Arnaud, aside from that magical 2015 season, he was never quite the player everyone hoped he would be. He battled injuries during his Mets tenure, and he was never the hitter everyone expected even if he was above average at the position. Mostly, he was very good behind the plate having been one of the best pitch framers in the game.
His Mets tenure ended with a whimper. While fans villified him for what he wasn’t instead of celebrating him for what he was, d’Arnaud opted for the high road thanking the fans and the organization for everything and expressing his gratitude to all.
While things ended poorly here, he is now playing for his hometown team. It is a team who has his former catching coach, who get everything out of d’Arnaud’s talent. He’s at the place where former Met Justin Turner‘s career took off. He’s playing for a very good team, a smart organization, and he will be put in a good position to succeed.
In his tenure, d’Arnaud was a good Met, and the 2015 run doesn’t happen without him. Despite everything, he never complained, and he was willing to do everything asked of him. Every Mets fan should wish him the best of luck. I know I will.
With the way the Mets built their team, someone was going to be squeezed out of playing time. This meant players were going to have to take their opportunity and prove why they should play everyday. That is exactly what Jeff McNeil did. So far, he has been the Mets most consistent player, and he has firmly established himself as the everyday left fielder.
Todd Frazier had the same chance. With J.D. Davis utterly incapable of fielding his position, and Jed Lowrie‘s injury, Frazier had a clear path to show the Mets why he should be the team’s everyday third baseman.
There was every reason to believe he could do it. He’s easily the best defensive infielder on the team. In fact, you may be surprised to find out his 18 DRS since 2015 is the best out of any infielder on the roster, and it is seventh best among all Major League third basemen.
At the plate, Frazier would frustrate people with his low batting average and high strike out numbers. However, in the seven years prior to this year, his only year as a below league average hitter was last year. Overall, he had entered this season with a career 109 OPS+, and that includes his being a 107 OPS+ from 2016 – 2017.
One positive trend is his career was his improving his walk rate. He had gone from a 6.5 percent in 2015 to 9.6 percent in 2016 and 14.4 percent in 2017. His HR/FB rate is characterized by Fangraphs as great.
In total, Frazier had his flaws, but he was a good player. In fact, he was a player who averaged a 3.3 WAR over 2016-2017. The reason is because this was a good defender who provided a decent bat in the lineup. No, Frazier wasn’t the guy you wanted in the middle of the lineup, but you could do much worse than him in that sixth or seventh spot in the lineup.
Even with last year’s down year, there were positive signs for Frazier. In every way, it was a career worst year for him as he landed on the Disabled List twice, and by his own admission, he would rush back from the injuries. Still, Frazier had a 1.9 WAR because he was still good in the field. While it was a career worst year for him, there were some positive signs like his hard hit rate and his hitting well in April, which was just about the only time he was healthy all last year.
Unfortunately, Frazier was injured in Spring Training, and it would be a lengthy rehab assignment before he would return. So far this year, Frazier has been excellent defensively. Among players who have played 100 innings, Frazier’s 2 DRS is fourth best in the National League. His 1.8 UZR is second best in the National League.
Without him, the Mets pitching staff had a 5.66 ERA and a .325BABIP. Since his return, Mets pitchers have a 3.50 ERA and a 2.83 BABIP. This wasn’t all Frazier, but his playing well at third stopped the bleeding with all the base hits going through the left side of the infield unchallenged.
However, as good as Frazier has been defensively, he has been that bad at the plate. So far this year, he has not drawn a walk, and he has struck out 32.7 percent of the time. He has a career worst ground ball rate (a pattern developing among Mets hitters under Chili Davis‘ tutelage) with a career worst hard hit rate. This is all a long winded way of saying what everyone can see. Frazier is lost at the plate.
Depending upon your perspective, there are reasons to believe Frazier will or will not rebound. Normally, a team could give him time to figure things out and get back to being the hitter the Mets know he is. However, the Mets also have Lowrie coming off the Injured List on Friday.
While Lowrie may not be the fielder Frazier he, he is far from the butcher Davis is. Lowrie has also been a much better hitter than Frazier. When Lowrie comes off the Injured List, there is no doubt he should take over as the every day third baseman.
As for Frazier, who knows where he goes from here. Perhaps, going to the bench will light a fire under him, and he will rebound. Certainly, his glove and late inning defense will be a positive. With the way Mickey Callaway double switches, Frazier will get his opportunities. In the end, you never know how things shake out on the injury front, and perhaps Frazier will get another opportunity to prove himself.
Unfortunately for him, he didn’t do it now, and now he is going to find himself on the bench fighting for playing time.
It’s another year, and attendance is once again down in baseball. That is troubling because last year saw baseball have a significant drop in attendance. There are many different theories being offered, and to date no one seems to be able to pinpoint anything. The Mets Bloggers offer their perspective:
Michael Baron
The cost is always a factor. Even in the small to mid-markets, its very expensive to go to any given game. I think there’s also the issue of a decline in interest among America’s youth which is factoring in, as well as the pace of play which is creating longer games.
Mark Healey (Gotham Baseball)
The one reason for me is that April weather has been getting progressively worse over the last several years. Nobody, especially casual fans — who are always the reason why attendance jumps — is going to sit through cold and wet night baseball in April. More days games would make for better fan experience in April, but we all know that won’t happen.
Joe Maracic (Joe Art Studio)
For April it’s distractions of spring break, holidays and the weather.
Greg Prince (Faith and Fear in Flushing)
Tim Ryder (MMO)
I’d say the watching-at-home experience has reached such a high-water mark – at least for Mets fans – that the added cost of seeing the game in person just isn’t worth it for most fans. I’ll go to a game or two per home-stand, but my days of season/partial packages are long behind me.
Bre S. (That Mets Chick)
I think that the weather has played a factor in attendance being down. I try to avoid going to April games (besides opening day) because it’s just too cold/windy and unbearable to sit and watch in that kind of weather. It could also be the teams performance so far. Our starting rotation has been the complete opposite of what we all expected. No one wants to sit through a cold game and see Noah Syndergaard let up 6 runs. As mentioned by Michael Baron, cost could also be a factor but if fans really wanted to go to games they could purchase after market tickets for cheap on StubHub or vivid seats. This circles back to weather. If cost is not a factor, do fans really want to go to a game in April when it’s freezing outside?
Mets Daddy
Much like with the rookie having a torrid start or a veteran not getting a quick jump out of the gate, we should not draw any conclusions from April. There are weather, school, holiday, and other familial issues. There are fans not trusting their team’s hot or slow start. If these numbers hold true through Memorial Day, there’s an issue.
But right now, we don’t know if there is an issue in 2019. What we do know is that there is a Commissioner ill-suited to handling this problem, especially because he is more upfront advertising what he deems to be baseball’s biggest problems than what about is great about the game.
Overall, no matter what the situation, these bloggers love the game, and you should be visiting their sites to get their unique input on this and other Mets news.
After last night’s loss, the media spoke with Pete Alonso about Chris Paddack, and when he was asked specifically about what Paddack said, Alonso said he “didn’t take kindly to it.” During the post-game interview by his locker, Alonso would also take a swipe at Paddack saying,
If he was upset about it, I’m assuming he could’ve been a little jealous. I’m happy to win it and I mean, if he was mad about that, there’s five other months. Also, he said something about winning Rookie of the Year. That’d be nice but, I’m trying to win a World Series.
What should be noted was what Paddack actually had to say about Alonso. If you read what he actually said, you have to really wonder what about the comments really got to him:
He’s a great player, no doubt. Does he deserve (the Rookie of the Month honor)? Absolutely. But I’m coming for him. We’ll see Monday who the top dog is.
That’s something I’m looking forward to, for sure. And I’m not saying that in a cocky way. I’m saying that because I know what I want, just like I’m sure he knows what he wants. It’ll be a fun little matchup.
Do I wish it was me? Yeah. But the way I look at it is, do you want to be Rookie of the Month or Rookie of the Year? We’ll see, man. We’ve got a long season and I’m looking forward to Monday, competing against him.
Essentially, Alonso was bothered by Paddack calling a great player who deserved an award more than he did. He was bothered by Paddack saying he was looking forward to facing off against him and proving himself against Alonso. In the end, Alonso took issue to being challenged.
There are many ways you can take this, but it is really just odd.
From day one, Alonso has been a fun guy. He’s brought energy to the team, and he has not been shy from celebrating on the field. When you are as boisterous as he is, and frankly, when you have been as good as he has been, you are going to get noticed, and players are going to challenge you the way Paddack did. It goes with the territory.
We can make something out of Alonso going 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and a pop out against Paddack. Mostly, that was about Paddack being a great pitcher, and Alonso slumping.
Since April 23rd, Alonso is hitting .184/.241/.347 with a triple, two homers, and six RBI. He is striking out in 35.2 percent of his plate appearances. He’s struck out in 14 or his last 15 games, and he has had multiple strikeout games in three of his last four games.
Things are going about as poorly as they can for Alonso right now. Certainly, Paddack challenging and then beating him is a symptom, not the problem, so is bizarre response in not taking kindly to being called a great player who other players want to measure themselves.
For Alonso, this was just round one. No, it was not round one against Paddack. It was round one in his being a feared slugger who has gotten other team’s attention. He didn’t do well in round one, but he’s still standing, and he stiill has a lot of fight left in him. We will see how he responds both tonight and the rest of the season.
Chris Paddack came into this start upset he lost out on Rookie of the Month honors to Pete Alonso. He was not just vocal about his displeasure, but he also threw down the gauntlet without being disrespectful of Alonso. That said, Paddack felt he had something to prove, and he set out to do it.
Just based on tonight, he made his case. He overpowered Alonso in Alonso’s first at-bat. Overall, Alonso was 0-for-3 with two strikeouts and a pop out against Paddack. To be fair to Alonso, he wasn’t the only Met to struggle against Paddack.
Paddack struck out 11 Mets and allowed just four hits over 7.2 innings. He was as dominant as you get, and he wasn’t really challenged all night. Seeing how feckless the Mets offense was, you could tell this was a Jacob deGrom start.
With there being no rain delay (although there was the rare threat of rain in San Diego), deGrom was great. Really, the only Padres batter who could touch him was Hunter Renfroe, who followed hitting a walk off grand slam against Kenley Jansen last night by going 2-for-3 with a double and homer off deGrom.
With the way the Mets offense has been of late, Renfroe’s fifth inning homer was effectively the game clinching run. His seventh inning double set up a Ty France sacrifice fly giving the Padres a 2-0 lead.
From there, Justin Wilson made his first appearance since being activated off the IL, and he would allow two runs in the eighth, all with two outs. At 4-0, there was zero chance of a Mets comeback win.
In total, the Mets were challenged today by Paddack, and they shrunk from the challenge. Maybe it was the travel. More likely, this is now a bad hitting club whose approach under Chili Davis is really not working right now. After all, that’s seven runs over six games.
Game Notes: Before the game, the Mets obtained Wilmer Font for a PTBNL/cash from the Rays. Jason Vargas was sent to the IL, and Tim Peterson was sent to Syracuse.