Musings

Enough of This – Call Up Rosario

The Mets are a team with a number of issues right now.  The pitching staff as a whole has the worst ERA in all of baseball.  The starters haven’t been going deep into games, and the bullpen is just now starting to crack.  While the position players are hitting, the team defense is unacceptably poor.  While there may not be any causation, there is certainly a correlation between the Mets poor pitching, and their poor defense.

With Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia going down, it is hard to believe the pitching staff is going to get any better.  Right now, the Mets can pin their hopes on Steven Matz and Seth Lugo, but who knows when they can come back?  And when Matz comes back, how long is he going to be healthy?  Same goes for Lugo who has a torn UCL in his pitching elbow.  With the Mets unlikely to significantly upgrade the pitching staff in any way, the team is going to have to upgrade their defense.

There are some minor tweaks that can be made.  Juan Lagares can start in center field over Curtis Granderson.  Typically, you do not want to start Lagares due to his offense, but with Granderson hitting .144/.206/.272 on the season, it’s hard to argue Lagares can be any worse.  Unfortunately, a switch from Granderson to Lagares is likely insufficient to address the defensive issues.  That goes double with the Mets statistically having the worst middle infield in the major leagues.

Right now, the easiest position to upgrade is shortstop.  Asdrubal Cabrera has a torn ligament in his thumb leading the Mets to consider putting him on the disabled list.  In addition to his thumb, we have also seen Cabrera struggle for the second straight year with some leg issues.  If he were to go on the disabled list, the natural option to replace him would be Jose Reyes.

For his part, Reyes just isn’t hitting.  For the season, Reyes is hitting .189/.286/.315.  Those numbers have been boosted by his numbers in May.  In May, he is hitting .220/.283/.341.  As a result of his poor hitting, Reyes is eminently replaceable.  In fact, he has been replaced.  When Lucas Duda returned from the disabled list on Friday, Reyes moved to the bench, and T.J. Rivera was moved to third base.

Overall, the Mets need a shortstop.  As it so happens, they have on in Triple-A with Amed Rosario.

Depending on whichever source you rely, Rosario is either a top 10 prospect or the best prospect in all of baseball.  One of the main reasons for this is he is succeeding in Triple-A.  Through his first 36 games, Rosario is hitting .359/.401/.493 with 11 doubles, a triple, two homes, and 22 RBI.  This isn’t even him padding his numbers at Cashman Field.  In fact, he has hit better on the road.

Now, Rosario has cooled off in May hitting .283/.339/.472.  However, if those numbers are indicative of what a slump looks like for Rosario now, that’s extremely encouraging.  Even with a potential regression if he were to be called up to the major leagues right now, Rosario’s offense would certainly play in the majors.  One of the reasons why is Rosario is a good defender.

Look past his nine errors this season.  This is a player widely regarded as one of the top defensive prospects in baseball.  Overall, it is his defense that is needed right now.  His range at shortstop is far and above what either Cabrera or Reyes can provide at the moment.  Those ground ball hits pitchers give up could be turned into outs.  If those hits become outs, rallies end, or maybe rallies don’t start in the first place.  The starting pitchers now have to throw less pitches, and they could go deeper into games.  In turn, this could take some of the burden off of the bullpen.

Is this an oversimplification?  Perhaps.  But there is no denying the Mets need a better glove at shortstop.  A shortstop with more range would permit help abate the range issues Neil Walker has at second and Rivera has at third.  Even if this all is an oversimplification, it’s at least worth a shot.

Right now, the Mets are not really going anywhere as currently constituted.  There are few areas in which the team can look to upgrade internally.  With Cabrera’s injuries and Reyes’ ineffectiveness, shortstop is one of those areas.  If the Mets are serious about winning in 2017, now is the time to call-up Rosario.

What Happened To This Bullpen?

Watching the game yesterday, we all got to see both Jerry Blevins and Addison Reed meltdown.  Since both players were acquired by the Mets, both pitchers have been as dominant as you could expect.  This was a day after Hansel Robles, who has arguably been the Mets best reliever this season, completely melted down.  If you have been watching the Mets so far this season, you expected this to happen sooner or later.

With the loss of Noah Syndergaard and the rest of the starting pitching staff under-performing, Terry Collins has had to go to the bullpen far too frequently early this season.  In fact, Jacob deGrom is the only starting pitcher who is averaging at least six innings this season.  Essentially, the bullpen is needed for about 40% of the innings pitched in any game.  The four extra inning games doesn’t help much either.

What also doesn’t help is how Collins has chosen to deploy his bullpen.  Lately, we have seen Collins using multiple relievers to get through just one inning.  What is bizarre about that approach is the score doesn’t matter.  Collins is as prone to do this in a one run game as he is in a five run game.  When you go to the well too often with the same guys time and again, you are going to tire your bullpen arms out.  It’s now the middle of May, and the Mets are about one-fifth through their schedule.  Here is the current pace for each of the Mets relievers:

  • Blevins – 95
  • Reed – 90
  • Salas – 90
  • Robles – 86
  • Edgin – 81

No one has made more than 90 appearances in a season since Pedro Feliciano made 92 appearances for the 2010 Mets.  The Mets currently have three relievers on pace to make 90 appearances.  The last time there were multiple pitchers in baseball who made 90 appearances in a season was 1979.  By the way, this is the only time it has happened in major league history.  The last time there were five relievers who have made 80 plus appearances in all of baseball.  On their own, the Mets are on pace to do that.

But it’s not just those relievers.  Jeurys Familia was eligible to pitch in just 18 games between his suspension and subsequent surgery.  Familia pitched in 11 of those games.  At that usage rate, Familia was on a pace to appear in 99 games.  That shouldn’t be much of a surprise as Familia has led the major leagues in appearances since the 2014 season.

Josh Smoker was demoted on May 9th due to his pitching to a 7.88 ERA and a 1.750 WHIP.  When he was demoted, Smoker had appeared in 15 of the Mets 32 games.  At the rate he was used, Smoker was on pace to appear in 76 games.  That number usually leads most teams.  That number was the sixth most on the Mets.

Since Paul Sewald has been recalled on May 1st, he is pitching on a pace to appear in 68 games this season.  This makes him the reliever who has been pitching with a manageable workload.  He is also one of the best relievers in the Mets bullpen right now.

Overall, this bullpen is being used at an unprecedented rate.  As we saw in Milwaukee, this bullpen is starting to crack.  That’s troubling when you consider the Mets have carried an extra reliever for much of the season.  The blame for this goes on the starters for not going deep into games.  It also goes on Collins for him not being judicious in how he deploys his bullpen arms.  Whatever the case, what was once a strength for the Mets is now becoming a liability.  Something has to change and fast.

Who Should Pitch The Eighth?

With Jeurys Familia having surgery that will potentially end his season, the Mets will have to reconfigure their bullpen. Likely, this will start with Addison Reed become the closer. This creates an opening for someone to pitch the eighth inning. 

Originally, that was supposed to be Fernando Salas. However, with him struggling much of this year pitching to a 5.51 ERA, he’s probably not the answer now.  That goes double when you consider Terry Collins no longer lets him face left-handed pitching. 

As a result, the Mets need to look elsewhere for someone to pitch the eighth. The Mets do have some interesting choices:

Jerry Blevins

Blevins has been even better than his career best year last year. Overall, he’s been the Mets best reliever. Still, there are some reasons why he shouldn’t be e trusted with the eighth. 

First, he’s allowed right-handed batters to hit .273/.429/.364.  Second, if you stick him with one inning, you lose the ability to deploy him against a team’s top left-handed batter in a huge spot. Last, Blevins has been overworked, and he may begin to regress as a result. 

Hansel Robles

If Blevins has been the Mets best reliever, Robles is not far behind. Through his 18 appearances, he’s 4-0 with a 1.42 ERA, 1.053 WHIP, and a 9.5 K/9. He’s getting right-handed batters out, and he’s dominating left-handed batters. He’s all that you would want for the eighth inning.

Until he isn’t. To a man, everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop on Robles when he changes from a dominant reliever to a good one. Also, there’s tremendous value in his versatility. He can come in to get a big strikeout, or he can come in to pitch three innings. You never want to constrict someone like that to just one role. 

Paul Sewald

Sewald has late inning experience with his being a minor league closer. Also, after a disastrous major league debut, Sewald has been good out of the Mets bullpen. In his last five appearances, he has pitched 8.1 innings allowing just seven hits, one earned, and two walks while striking out eight. 

With all that said, it’s not really likely Collins gives this important job to a rookie. That has not been Terry Collins‘ modus operandi.  

That probably also eliminates some interesting choices like Kevin McGowan who has been dominant in Las Vegas.  With that being the case, it appears there is not one reliever Collins truly trusts over another to get those three big outs in the eighth. Ultimately, that may mean that until Sandy Alderson makes a move, we may see more of a focus on the hot hand or matchups late in the game. 

Temper Expectations For Matt Harvey

Given all that has happened with Matt Harvey over the past few seasons, it is easy to attribute much more significance to Harvey’s start against the Brewers.  That’s what happens when Harvey fails to show up for a game and with the team suspending him for three games.

Reportedly, Harvey apologized to his teammates, and by all accounts, they have accepted his apology.  Harvey spoke with the media to offer his explanation.  All that remains is for Harvey to truly address the fans.  For fans, they don’t want words.  They want Harvey to go out there and be the old Harvey.  That starts with his start in Milwaukee.  Anything less than pure dominance, and fans will have their avenue to criticize Harvey.

The Harvey fans expect is the one we expect was 22-13 with a 2.50 ERA, 0.976 WHIP, and a 9.3 K/9 between 2013 and 2015.  He was the guy that had a great start in the NLCS and Game 5 of the World Series.  The problem is that Harvey is not that pitcher.  After his TOS surgery, he has yet to get back to being that pitcher.  He’s been inconsistent with the velocity in his fastball as well as his pitch location.  Teams have begun to really hit him this season with Harvey allowing at least one home run in five of his six starts this year.

Things have been worse lately.  In his last two starts, he was shelled by the Braves.  In each start, he allowed six earned runs walking three plus.  He wasn’t fooling anyone either only racking up three strikeouts in 9.2 innings pitched and allowing a home run in each start.

Now, this could be the result of his personal issues that led to his suspension.  It could be the Mets asking him to make two unexpected starts.  One of those starts was against the Braves.  Without a real roadmap for pitchers returning from TOS surgery, we are still unsure as to whether this is all part of the normal ebbs and flows for a pitcher.  Possibly, Harvey will never regain his old form.  At this point, we don’t know, and as a result, it’s unfair to ask him to be something he’s not.  There should be no added significance to one start in Milwaukee just because he’s coming off a suspension.

At this point, all we should expect is Harvey to be better than he has been against the Braves.  Like with any other pitcher, the expectation should be for Harvey to keep his team in the game.  More than anything, Harvey just needs to show up.  If he does that while pitching at least decently, that’s all we can ask at this point.

The Noise Distracts From How Good The Mets Have Been

It started early for the Mets. Steven Matz was injured before Opening Day, and the Mets again wondering what is really wrong with him. Seth Lugo pitched in the World Baseball Classic, partially tore his UCL, and he is going to try to rehab it rather than having Tommy John surgery. Indirectly, this led to Rafael Montero pitching like, well, Montero. It also led to a less than inspiring performance by Adam Wilk.

Noah Syndergaard is gone for an extended period of time with a torn lat. Matt Harvey has been suspended three games for failing to show up at the ballpark. Yoenis Cespedes and Lucas Duda have not played in a few weeks, and there are just rumors that they are soon to return. Travis d’Arnaud is yet again on the disabled list himself, and as usual we are unaware when he can return. Once again, Asdrubal Cabrera has been hobbled in the early part of the season leading everyone to wonder when the Mets finally put him on the disabled list.

Jeurys Familia was suspended for the first few weeks of the season, and he was not sharp immediately upon his return. Addison Reed struggled in his adaption to closer and again in his transition to the eighth inning reliever. Fernando Salas just struggled, and Josh Smoker has probably struggled more than Reed and Salas combined.

Jose Reyes was hitting .095 midway through April. Curtis Granderson entered the month hitting just .128. Neil Walker is under the Mendoza Line against right-handed pitching, and he entered the month of May hitting just .195. Wilmer Flores cannot his right-handed pitching. Juan Lagares can’t hit any pitching.

The end result was the Mets losing six in a row and 10 of 11. Already, people were starting to wonder if this team was similar to the 1992 or the 2009 Mets teams. Despite all of this, the Mets are back at .500 and second place in the National League East. How did it happen?

Well, for starters young and under utilized players have stepped up. Michael Conforto went from the bench to one of the best hitters in baseball. For the second straight season, T.J. Rivera has taken complete advantage of an unexpected opportunity being given to him. Josh Edgin has become a dominant LOOGY in the bullpen. We have even seen Paul Sewald step up pitching terrifically after some initial hiccups.

Then there are the veterans who have had career best seasons so far. Jay Bruce is on base to put up career best numbers in every offensive category. Jerry Blevins has been used almost every game, and he is putting up better numbers than he did last year’s career best season for him. Rene Rivera is hitting over .300. Hansel Robles is 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 16 appearances.

More than there, the Mets have exhibited some professional pride. Reyes is hitting .282/.341/.564 with three doubles, a triple, two homers, nine RBI and a stolen base over his last 10 games. Granderson has hit .250/.368/.625 with three doubles, a homer, and four RBI over his last five games. Walker has hit .276/.364/.414 with four doubles and four RBI in the month of May.

In addition, the bullpen has been much better of late. Familia has had five straight scoreless outings. Reed has allowed just two hits with no runs in the month of May. Terry Collins has been more judicious in his use of Salas, and Salas has not allowed any runs in his last five appearances. With Blevins, Edgin, and Robles continuing their outstanding seasons, this has become the dominant bullpen everyone envisioned it would be to start the year.

With the combination of the resurgent veterans and the outstanding young player, the Mets are winning again. In the month of May, the Mets lead the majors in runs scored. They are fifth in the National League in homers. However, unlike last year, the Mets do not need homers to score runs. The Mets .320 team batting average and .517 slugging with runners in scoring position is second best in the majors, and its .419 OBP with runners in scoring position is the best in baseball.

Despite all the noise around the Mets, this team is playing its best baseball of the season. Once their pitching gets relatively healthy, and their current pitchers pitch close to their true talent levels, this team will once again be one of the best teams in all of baseball. Until then, this current group of Mets will make sure the Washington Nationals will be within shouting distance allowing the Mets to compete for the division.

 

Sandy Alderson Miscalculated

Yet again, the Mets have had to turn to Rafael Montero to make a start because there weren’t better options for the Mets.  There weren’t better options because Sandy Alderson believed the Mets had enough starting pitching to never need to sign a veteran signing pitcher.  As we have seen, this was a miscalculation.

Lost in the excitement of the Mets having seven starting pitchers was the fact that pitchers break down.  This pitching staff exemplifies this axiom.  Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Steven Matz were coming off season ending surgeries.  For his part, Matz is seemingly never healthy.  Zack Wheeler hadn’t pitched in over two years due to his having Tommy John surgery and the ensuing complications therefrom.  Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo were terrific in September of last year, but it was against some fairly weak competition.  Also, it is likely both were going to be on some form of an innings limit.  Finally, there was Noah Syndergaard, who seemed indestructible.

Now, we could have anticipated Matz doing down, but the other manner in which the Mets have turned to Montero and Adam Wilk has been a surprise.  No one expected Lugo to suffer a torn UCL.  Syndergaard tearing his lat never could have been reasonably anticipated, nor was the Mets needing to suspend Harvey.  Still, given the relative injury histories, it was certainly plausible the Mets would be down three plus pitchers at any point of the season.  It was also plausible because pitchers break.

Despite this, Alderson moved both Logan Verrett and Gabriel Ynoa to the Orioles in separate deals.  Both moves were defensible because the Mets needed space on the 40 man roster to accommodate free agent signings.  Still, those arms needed to be replaced by cheap veterans who could be stashed in Triple-A, or the Mets could have signed a swingman who could have served in long relief and be available to make a spot start.

Now, we know players like Doug Fister and Colby Lewis likely weren’t signing unless they got minor league deals.  Still, there were pitchers like Jon Niese and Dillon Gee available.  Mets fans may not love them, but they are certainly better than Montero.  There was also Scott Feldman who has served in both relief and long man roles, and he signed with the Reds for just $2.3 million.  There are several other names like Jake Peavy who at least has the veteran guile to gut through five innings.  Instead, the Mets stuck with Sean Gilmartin, who they won’t even trust to make a start, and they signed Wilk who is not a viable major league pitcher.

And now, the once vaunted Mets starting pitching is a mess, and it is up to Alderson to fix it.  This is the same Alderson who has been very cavalier in moving pitching the past few seasons to help fix the weaknesses in teams he has built.  So far, his answer has been Milone who has a 6.43 ERA in six starts this season.  That’s hardly an answer.

Likely, Alderson’s real answer is to hope for some health with presumably both Matz and Lugo will be ready by the end of the month.  Maybe this time the health plan with work.

Matt Harvey – How Did It Get To This?

Woody Allen has been largely attributed with the quote, “80% of life is just showing up.”  If the other 20% you are providing is a 5.14 ERA in six starts, you better make sure you are showing up.  According to various reports, Matt Harvey isn’t even doing that.  Whether it was Saturday, the workout right before the 2015 NLDS, or any of the supposedly unreported occasions this happened, there’s no excuse for not showing up.

Yes, Harvey has already answered the bell twice this season by making starts on short notice.  Sure, he was the guy that has twice pitched through injury (UCL, TOS) to try to help the team.  He’s always the guy that wants the ball, and more importantly, he wants the ball when the chips are down.  He had great starts in the 2015 NLCS and World Series.  He was the guy that initially gave the Mets hope when he burst on the scene in 2013.

None of those are an excuse.  You have to be there.  It doesn’t even matter if the Mets let him get away with it for far too long.  Harvey is a 28 year old professional.  He doesn’t need to be told to be there.

Harvey has been a great pitcher, and once he figures things out, he can be one once again.  However, for him to get back to that point, we have to know he is fully invested.  If he is not showing up to the ballpark, how do we know that’s the case.  Even if he had a migraine, as debilitating as those can be, he has to find a way to let the team know in a timely fashion.  He has a phone and an agent for that.  Again, if you don’t show enough responsibility to advise the team about your inability to show up to the ballpark, how do we know he is being responsible enough to make sure he is ready for all of his starts?  We don’t.

Now, it is possible the Mets blew one incident out of proportion, and Harvey did what he was supposed to do.  If that is the case, it is emblematic of what has been increasingly been a toxic relationship between the Mets and Harvey.  No one is free from blame in that.  The shame of it is it never should have gotten to this point.  Harvey should have been an ace for a decade.  The Mets should have protected his arm.  Harvey should have been more dedicated to the team.

Neither has happened, and now the Mets are a dysfunctional mess yet again.

Jay Bruce: King of New York

So far, the following Mets have been chosen to wear the crown after a Mets win:

The 10 players wearing the crown are depicted here:

Looking over that photo, there is one thing that stands out – Jay Bruce is the only player to accompany the crown with a stately orange and blue king’s robe.  Bruce is not only comfortable in New York, but he also wants to be its king. 

If he keeps this up, he certainly will. Through his first 28 games, Bruce is hitting .291/.376/.609. If he continues this, all three would easily be career bests. He’s on pace to score 112 runs, hit 47 doubles, 50 homers, and 140 RBI. Those wouldn’t be just career bests, those numbers would amount to the best season a Mets position player has ever had. 

Certainly, if he even comes close to that, he will forever be Mets royalty. 

Call Up Ricky Knapp

It’s apparent Rafael Montero doesn’t have it.  He has all the talent in the world.  Talent enough to lead the Mets to give him chance after chance after chance.  He’s squandered them all.  Last night was the latest example with him allowing five earned over 3.2 innings. The Mets cannot in good conscience let him make another start for this team.

Just like the Mets were forced to do last season, it is time to give someone else a chance.  Last year meant Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman.  Gsellman thrived, and as a result, he made the Opening Day rotation.  Lugo was making a name for himself in the World Baseball Classic until a slight tear in his UCL was discovered.  Lugo’s absence has been really felt with the injuries to Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard.  With him and Matz still weeks away, the Mets need to figure out who should get a chance to pitch in the rotation.

As noted above, Montero has squandered that chance.  It is time to give someone else a shot.  Unfortunately, there are no stand outs right now in Triple-A meaning the Mets are going to have to take a chance on someone.  That pitcher should be Ricky Knapp.

Knapp is the son of former major league pitching coach Richard Knapp.  It should then come as no surprise that Knapp has repeatable and clean mechanics.  He’s also a four pitch pitcher that really doesn’t have one outstanding pitch.  Accordingly, Knapp is reliant upon location, mixing up his pitches, and pitching to contact in order to get batters out.  He has been largely successful in that because Knapp keeps the ball on the ground having a 1.46 ground out to fly out ratio.  As a result, Knapp has gone deep into games with him leading the Mets organization with three complete games last year.

As it so happens, Knapp is not the type of pitcher that typically thrives in Vegas.  That is quite evident in Knapp’s stats to start the season.  Through his first six starts, he is 1-2 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.  This makes him yet another Mets pitching prospect who is struggling in Vegas.  Still, there are some signs of hope for him going forward.

Knapp is walking 2.1 batters per nine innings which is lower than his 2.3 BB/9 in his minor league career.  In his two road games, Knapp is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP.  His opponents have a .328 BABIP this season which is higher than the .299 BABIP batters have against him in his minor league career or the .274 BABIP Double-A batters had against him.  With a normalized BABIP and with Knapp replicating his numbers on the road, there is a strong case that can be made Knapp could succeed at the major league level.

Overall, there are signs for hope for Knapp to be able to succeed with the Mets.  Those hopes should be elevated when you consider Knapp will have the opportunity to work with Dan Warthen.  At the very least, he can’t be worse than Montero.  For that reason alone, the Mets should give him a shot until Lugo or Matz are ready.

Rain Out Is Better Than Montero

If the Mets were smart, they would use the window they have right now and call tonight’s game. They certainly have their excuse to do so. No, I’m not referring to the fact that it is supposed to rain all day into tomorrow. No, I’m referring to the fact that somehow we are back at the point where the Mets are once again in a position where they must give Rafael Montero a start.

This is the same Montero who made six appearances this year going 0-2 with a 9.45 ERA, 3.600 WHIP, and a 10.8 BB/9. This follows the pattern of Montero’s career where his ERA, WHIP, and BB/9 have continuously gone up in each of the last three seasons. While the narrative has been that Montero just needs to trust his stuff and pound the strike zone, the simple fact is he doesn’t. Furthermore, no one should trust that he can anymore.

Sure, he has gone down to Vegas, and he is pitching well again. In his two starts, he has a 1.74 ERA, 0.677 WHIP, and he has only walked three batters in 10.1 innings. That’s what he does. Montero pitches well against inferior competition. Last year, he was 4-3 with a 2.20 ERA, 1.102 WHIP, and a 3.5 BB/9 in nine starts. Due to his having a good stretch in Double-A and a rash of injuries, the Mets turned to Montero. The result was him making three starts pitching just 11 innings. Over those 11 innings, he walked 14 batters. This led to his 7.36 ERA and a 2.182 WHIP. From there, he was demoted to the bullpen.

The Mets were tricked again by him coming out of Spring Training when he pounded the strike zone. The Mets relied upon those outings and the Jeurys Familia suspension to give Montero another chance. As discussed above, he squandered that chance as well. In reality, there is no indication whatsoever that Montero will justify the chance he was once again given.

In fact, with every outing of his all you can think about is the other players the Mets passed on to let Montero keep getting chances. Logan Verrett and Gabriel Ynoa were traded for cash to the Orioles. Matthew Bowman was lost in the Rule 5 Draft, and he has since carved out a role in their bullpen. There are pitchers still in the Mets farm system like Ricky Knapp and P.J. Conlon, who despite their struggles to start the year, are certainly more deserving of a chance.

Instead, the Mets will once again give Montero yet another chance. That is unless it rains tonight, and they can skip his spot in the rotation. Hopefully, the rain beats Montero tonight. It wouldn’t be a surprise since everyone else beats him.  Yet somehow, even if it does rain, we know this won’t be the last we see of Montero.