Musings

Las Vegas Doesn’t Have The Solution To the Mets Bullpen Problems

It’s no secret the major league club has had bullpen issues. Jerry Blevins pitches in far too many games. Jeurys Familia is possibly done for the year. Fernando Salas and Addison Reed aren’t the pitchers they were last year. Both Josh Smoker and Hansel Robles have been sent down to Triple-A due to ineffectiveness. Somehow Rafael Montero is still on the major league roster, and he does not appear to be in jeopardy of being sent back to Vegas.

Part of the reason for that is the 51s relievers have been struggling mightily of late. Worse yet, it is the arms who were possibly closest to making the major leagues that are struggling the most.

Kevin McGowan started the year using his big fastball to strike batters out at high clip. More than racking up strikeouts, McGowan was keeping runners of the bases. He had a 0.700 WHIP to go along with a sterling 0.90 ERA. With him harnessing his stuff, and the major league bullpen struggling, it appeared as it he might get his chance sooner or later. Well, it is going to be later. Since May 4th, he’s appeared in six games, and he has allowed two plus runs in four of those appearances. His last appearance was a disastrous 0.2 appearance where he allowed six earned.

Another pitcher who has struggled of late is Alberto Baldonado. The left-handed pitcher was getting both righties and lefties out in Double-A leading to his promotion to Triple-A. Since joining the 51s, Baldonado has been hit hard. In his six appearances, he has a 10.80 ERA and a 1.350 WHIP. He’s become less of a cross-over reliever and more of a LOOGY with right-handed batters hitting .261 off of him. It’s a large reason why Baldonado has allowed three earned runs in two of his last three appearances.

Both McGowan and Baldonado have presumably surpassed Erik Goeddel on the depth chart. In 2014 and 2015, Goeddel had been a good major league reliever pitching to a 2.48 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP. Last year he struggled, and he would need surgery to remove a bone spur in his pitching elbow. He hasn’t gotten back to the effective major league reliever. In fact, he hasn’t even gotten back to being an effective pitcher. In 16 games, Goeddel is 2-3 with an 8.68 ERA and a 2.036 WHIP. He’s probably closer to being designated for assignment than getting called up.

It is more of the same with the rest of the 51s bullpen. Ben Rowen went from a consideration for the Opening Day roster to a 5.91 ERA. David Roseboom went from revelation last year in Double-A to an 8.31 ERA. Chasen Bradford has a 4.22 ERA and a 1.622 WHIP. Beck Wheeler has a 5.95 ERA and a 1.932 WHIP. About the only reliever with good stats is Logan Taylor, and he is walking the ballpark with a 4.1 BB/9.

Right now, as bad as things are in the majors, it is worse in Triple-A. At both levels, the Mets have talented pitchers who are going to have to make the necessary adjustments to start getting batters out. If they don’t, the Mets will be forced to look outside the organization for bullpen help. That is something no reliever in the Mets organization wants right now.

Tyler Pill Isn’t The Answer To The Pitching Problems

With Tommy Milone posting a 10.50 ERA in his three starts with the Mets, the team has begun discussing releasing him and having someone else take his spot in the rotation until Steven Matz is ready to return from the Disabled List. Considering at various points this season Milone, Adam Wilk, and Rafael Montero were given starts, it’s fair to say there is a dearth of major league ready prospects in the Mets minor league system.

Well, the name that has been publicly bandied about is Tyler Pill. The reason Pill’s name has been mentioned is he’s had a great start to the 2017 season.

Between Binghamton and Las Vegas, Pill is 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP while averaging over six innings per start. That includes Pill no allowing any runs in his two starts for the 51s. If you’re purely scouting the stat lines, Pill should be called up immediately.

There is a reason Pill hasn’t been immediately called to the majors. After all, this is the same pitcher who was 9-10 with a 4.02 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP in 22 starts for Binghamton last year. In five starts for Vegas, he was 1-1 with a 5.60 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP. After that season, he wasn’t even ranked on MMN‘s Top 100.

Nor should he have been. Pill is four pitch pitcher who touches the low 90s. As a result, he has to mostly rely on control to get batters out. With none of his pitches being outstanding, he does not generate a lot of swing and misses. Since his 2013 should surgery to repair a Bennett lesion in his pitching shoulder, Pill has not posted an ERA under 3.97. This naturally begs the question about what’s different about Pill this year.

In a word, luck.

Through his first seven starts, Pill is allowing just a .265 BABIP, including a .255 BABIP in Triple-A. Typically, pitchers don’t have BABIPs under .300, especially those that pitch to as much contact as Pill. In fact, in his minor league career, Pill has allowed a .317 BABIP.

And batters have been putting a lot more balls in play off Pill. So far this year, Pill has just a 4.2 K/9, which would stand as the lowest K/9 in his career. His 2.4 BB/9, while encouraging, only further serves to show there are more balls in play against Pill than there had been in prior years. This creates further concerns there will be a stark regression.

These numbers all factor into his 4.01 FIP for the 2017 season. That’s closer to the pitcher who wasn’t even considered one of the Mets Top 100 prospects than the one who has yet to allow a run for Vegas this year.

Overall, Pill has had terrific numbers to start the 2017 season. However, as you dig deeper, it does not appear Pill is any different than the pitcher who has struggled the past few seasons.  Still, the run he’s on has gotten him promoted to the majors.  Unfortunately, unless he makes some adjustments with Dan Warthen, he is not going to be successful at the major league level.

Enough Of Rafael Montero

Either the Mets can no longer afford the black mail or the front office cannot admit they were wrong.  Other than those two scenarios it is hard to fathom why Rafael Montero is still with the major league team.

In 12 appearances, Montero is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA and a 2.520 WHIP.  He has entered four games this season with the scored tied, and he has allowed the opposition to take the lead in three of those game.  He has allowed a run in seven of his five appearances.  He has allowed two plus runs in four of those appearances.

The more you break it down, the worse things are for Montero.  He is walking 7.6 batters per nine innings, and he’s allowing 15.1 hits per nine.   Batters are hitting .378/.478/.500 off of him.  Basically speaking, when Montero actually does throw a strike, he’s not fooling anyone.  Montero makes every hitter look like Mike Trout.

It’s no wonder Terry Collins doesn’t trust him.  That creates another problem.  When the Mets are ahead in games by big margins, Collins does not go to Montero.  Instead, he will try to patchwork his bullpen to bring them to the finish line with the lead.  This is a major reason why the bullpen has been overworked. Jerry Blevins is on pace for 98 appearances. Addison Reed and Fernando Salas are on pace for 87 appearances.  It may also have been a reason why Hansel Robles went from a 1.42 ERA to a 6.23 ERA and a demotion to the minors.  Robles was replaced on the roster by Josh Smoker, who had also suffered under a heavy workload and was previously demoted to the minors.

With respect to Smoker and Robles, they have more than earned their respective demotions.  They needed to go down to Triple-A not just to get themselves straight, but for someone to ease off their workload.  Their respective demotions beg the question as to why Montero is still up with this team.  He’s pitching worse than either Robles or Smoker did.  His mere presence on the roster has led to the overuse of more valuable relievers.  When he does actually get into games, he leaves the Mets in a worse position than he found them.

Montero is really hurting this team, and yet this organization continues to stick by him.  It is unfathomable.  Sooner or later, someone needs to press this organization and find out why Montero is still a Met.

Maybe Duda Is The Odd Man Out

With the impending return of Yoenis Cespedes, the debate will begin to emerge over which Mets outfielder needs to go to the bench.  Thankfully, that will not be Michael Conforto, not even against left-handed pitching.  Instead, the discussion is between a pair of left-handed hitting right fielders who are in the last year of their contract.

If this decision was made in May, it would have been clear-cut.  You play Jay Bruce.  He was the best hitter on the team.  However, he has stumbled in May.  In the month of May, he has been eerily reminiscent of the player who struggles upon coming to the Mets hitting just .191/.282/.426 with four homers and 14 RBI.  If Terry Collins is paying attention to this slump, this may just open the door for Curtis Granderson to play over Bruce.

While Granderson is typically a slow starter, he had a nightmare April leading many to question if he’s done at 36 years old.  It’s May now, and Granderson is hitting much better.  Now, when you hit .128/.174/.221 in April, that bar is absurdly low.  And certainly, you can argue his hitting .232/.328/.518 with three homers and nine RBI does not merit a starting job.  Still, there is an argument for Granderson over Bruce.

Even with his subpar May numbers, Granderson is having a better May.  Whereas Bruce usually gets off to hot starts and cools off, Granderson starts out slow and improves as the season progress.  Granderson is hot right now hitting .296/.387/.630 with two homers and four RBI over his last nine games.  Between the two, Granderson is the much better right fielder.  He also gives the Mets the option of playing him in center while Conforto plays in right.

No matter who Collins or the Mets front office decides to bench, it is going to be a tough decision that is going to lead to much double guessing.  It may also be an issue with the team because these are two All Star right fielders who are playing for a contract.  Sitting on the bench is going to damage their free agent value.  There may be a work around benching either player.

It’s possible the Mets could bench Lucas Duda and play Bruce at first base.  The justification for this is Duda has struggled since returning from the Disabled List.  In his nine games back, Duda has hit just .154/.354/.231 with no homers or RBI.  The OBP is where you want it to be, but Duda just looks lost when it comes to the rest of his game.  This could be part of the normal peaks and valleys a player has during the season, or it could be part of the lingering effects of Duda’s elbow injury.

This creates its own problem as well.  While there were some positive signs, Bruce looked raw at first base in the six games he played there.  While there may not be a cause and effect, it should be noted Bruce’s season took a definitive turn when he played first base.  Before playing first base, he was hitting .309/.387/.673 with six homers and 14 RBI in 14 games.  In the 26 games since, he is hitting .216/.302/.431 with five homers and 16 RBI.  There’s also the matter of Duda being an impending free agent himself.  Certainly, he does not want to have any diminution of his free agent value by moving to the bench.

Right now, the Mets have a decision to make on which left-handed 30 home run impending free agent needs to go to the bench.  There is no good answer to this conundrum.  It’s a decision that is going to have far reaching implications on how the Mets ability to get back into the National League East race.  There is still time for each player to distinguish themselves and take the decision out of the Mets’ hands similar to how Conforto has.

This is the type of question that makes or breaks seasons.  Whenever the Mets have to make this decision, they need to make the right one.

Travis d’Arnaud Is Better Than Rene Rivera

We saw it again.  When Travis d’Arnaud is healthy, he has the talent to be an All-Star.  However, yet again, he is injured, and his injury has once again created an opportunity for another player.  In the past, Kevin Plawecki wasted those opportunities.  This year, it is Rene Rivera, and he has taken full advantage of the opportunity.

Since d’Arnaud went back on the Disabled List, Rivera is hitting .357/.400/.452 with a double, homer, and 11 RBI.  Right now, Rivera is exactly what the Mets thought they would be getting from a healthy d’Arnaud.  Because of that Terry Collins has basically said d’Ranud is not getting his starting job back when he returns from the Disabled List.  Specifically, Collins said, “When Travis gets back, we’ll have to make some decisions, but obviously Rene Rivera has earned a spot, has earned a job catching, and we’re going to play him as much as possible.”  (Mike Puma, New York Post).

If Collins follows through with that plan, it is going to be problematic.  It is Collins confusing a hot streak at the plate from a veteran to a player transforming themselves.  There are two things that are true here: (1) It is hard to trust in d’Arnaud because of his injury history; and (2) Rivera is playing some of the best baseball in his career.  To say anything different is to read too much into everything.

In fact, this isn’t the first time we have seen this from Rivera.  In July 2016, Rivera hit .323/.400/.581 with two doubles, two homers, and seven RBI.  With that hot streak and another injury prone season from d’Arnaud, Rivera would be the starter the rest of the way.  In the ensuing 34 games, Rivera would hit .216/.278/.295 with one double, two homers, and nine RBI.

We shouldn’t be surprised by this.  Rivera is not a good hitter.  In his career, he is a .219/.269/.338 hitter who has just one season with double digit homers.  He has been slightly better in his one plus season with the Mets hitting .247/.304/.361 with eight homers and 40 RBI in 89 games played.  Even is you were to argue Rivera is a better hitter with the Mets, he is still not a good enough hitter to play everyday.

The obvious argument is Rivera should be starting because he is a strong defensive catcher that gets the most out of his staff.  Unfortunately, the data does not support this notion.

In April, with d’Arnaud catching 16 out of the 24 games, the Mets pitching staff had a 4.53 ERA and were walking 3.5 batters per nine innings and striking out 9.5 batters per nine innings.  In May, the Mets pitching has fallen apart.  In the month, the Mets pitchers have a 6.02 ERA while walking 4.4 batters per nine and striking out just 8.3 batters per nine.

Now, there are a number of reasons why this happened.  First of all, Noah Syndergaard has not thrown a pitch in the Month of May, and his replacement in the rotation was Tommy Milone.  We have also Adam Wilk make a disasterous spot start due to Matt Harvey being suspended.  That’s another thing.  Harvey, Jacob deGrom, and Robert Gsellman have all regressed in May.

April May
       ERA     WHIP      BB/9        ERA     WHIP       BB/9
deGrom 2.84 1.17 3.20 4.50 1.50 4.50
Harvey 4.25 1.15 3.00 8.04 2.11 6.90
Gsellman 6.23 1.71 3.70 7.41 1.77 2.60

Now, there is always a real danger in trying to draw too many conclusions from a small sample size even if that is what Collins is doing in naming Rivera a starter right now.  However, there might be one big reason why these pitchers have struggled since d’Arnaud went on the Disabled List.  It could just be because d’Arnaud is a better pitch framer than Rivera.  In fact, between d’Arnaud, Plawecki, and Rivera, Rivera is the worst pitch framer on the roster.

Now, it might be difficult to accept d’Arnaud is better handling this Mets pitching staff than Rivera because that’s not the narrative.  The narrative is Rivera is the defensive specialist.  If you are looking for proof, look no further than his 36% caught stealing rate.  Actually, people rarely do look further than that.  While Rivera has his strong points as a catcher, he is not a great defensive catcher.  His pitch framing holds him back.  If he’s not getting that extra strike for his pitching staff on a per at-bat basis, it is hard to defend playing him everyday with his offensive ineptitude.

Overall, d’Arnaud is the better pitcher for this Mets pitching staff.  His pitch framing skills help turn balls into strikes.  This get his pitchers into advantageous counts.  This shortens at-bats.  It keeps runners off the bases.  Ultimately, pitchers can now go deeper into games.  Also, the pitchers can have leads when they leave the game with the help of d’Arnaud’s bat in the lineup.  Looking at d’Arnaud’s bat and his pitch framing, there should be no doubt he should play everyday.

Happy Birthday

Just wanted to drop a note saying Happy Birthday to my younger brother. 

Hopefully, you are not on the disabled list as long as David Wright

Getting To Know The Prospects Before They Become Major Leaguers: LHP P.J. Conlon

By now, many of you have probably already heard of P.J. Conlon, the Mets’ left-handed pitching prospect, who emigrated from Ireland. However, that only scratches the surface of who Conlon is.

Conlon is actually from Northern Ireland – Belfast to be exact – a city at the center of The Troubles, an ethno-nationalist conflict over whether Northern Ireland belonged to the United Kingdom or the Republic of Ireland. Not an ideal place to raise a family, especially an Irish Catholic family like the Conlons.

Seeking to escape the danger that was so prevalent in their lives, the Conlons departed for America and settled in California. It was there that would all become citizens, and it was there they would seek to fulfill the American dream. And nothing is more American than baseball.

Like most American boys, Conlon played baseball, and he was good enough to play in high school. Despite being a standout high school starting pitcher, Conlon wasn’t drafted by any major league teams leading him to further purse his baseball dreams in college.

Conlon would go to the University of San Diego. His college roommate was current Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant. In Conlon’s Junior year, he was 6-4 with a 2.17 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and an 8.1 K/9.

He wasn’t overlooked after that. The Mets would make him their 13th round draft pick in the 2015 draft.

Right away, he showed the Mets he was special. In 17 relief appearances for the Brooklyn Cyclones, Conlon was 0-1 with a 0.00 ERA, 0.59 WHIP, and a 13.2 K/9. His stats suggested he could become a draft steal and yet Conlon, himself, didn’t have great stuff.

His fastball routinely sits in the mid to high 80s. However, Conlon is still able to make it work because he pairs it with a terrific change-up and a good curveball. In fact, Conlon’s change-up may very well be the best change-up in the entire Mets farm system. Conlon also hides the ball very well due to his delivery. As you can see, it is a lot of arms and legs:

Perhaps, the main thing Conlon does right is he knows how to attack hitters. He plays each one of his pitches off the other ones making his repertoire more effective. He pounds the strike zone, and he typically keeps the ball on the ground. He’s really an uncomfortable at-bat for a hitter.

Conlon built upon his 2015 success when he was moved from the bullpen to the rotation in 2016. In his time split between Columbia and St. Lucie, Conlon was dominant once again. In 23 starts and one relief appearance, Conlon was 12-2 with a 1.65 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and a 6.1 K/BB ratio. His 1.65 ERA was lowest among all full season qualified starters.

His performance brought with it a lot of awards and recognition. He was a South Atlantic League All-Star. He was named the MiLB.com Fans’ Choice for Best Starting Pitcher. He was named an MiLB Mets Organizational All-Star. He was MLB Pipeline’s Mets Pitching Prospect of the Year. Perhaps most importantly, the New York Mets named Conlon the Sterling Organizational Pitcher of the Year.

He was also MMN‘s Starting Pitcher of the Year. He currently ranks as MMN‘s 22nd best Mets prospect.

He’s a prospect that seems to be not too far from the major leagues.He was a non-roster invitee to Major League Spring Training with the Mets considering using him out of the bullpen as soon as Opening Day. Most likely, Conlon will begin the year in Binghamton waiting for the call to the majors whether it is this year or the next; whether it is for a spot start or to pitch out of the bullpen.

And when that day eventually comes, Conlon will be doing something truly special indeed. The day Conlon steps foot on the field, he will become just the 44th major leaguer born in Ireland. He will be the first Irish born major leaguer since Joe Cleary pitched one-third of an inning for the 1945 Washington Senators over 70 years ago.

“I’ve always wanted to prove not only to myself but to people growing up that this was something I could do,” Conlon recently told the Irish Times.

“I feel like I can get big league hitters out and I’m just in the process right now of polishing everything and being ready for that step.”

This isn’t supposed to happen to boys born in dangerous war torn cities. This isn’t supposed to happen to boys born in Ireland. This isn’t even supposed to happen to pitchers who don’t throw their fastballs in the 90s. And yet, Conlon continues to persevere and make the best out of who he is and what he has.

That, in a nutshell, is the American Dream.

Editor’s Note: this was first published on Mets Merized Online

Reflecting on The Mets Longest Tenured Manager

Once Saturday’s game is over, Terry Collins will become the Mets all-time leader in games managed.  With this, he will be above Gil Hodges, who may have owned the record himself if not for his sudden and tragic passing.  He will surpass Bobby Valentine, who was the first Mets manager to lead the team to consecutive postseasons.  Finally, he passes Davey Johnson, who led the Mets to the greatest stretch in team history.

All of the aforementioned managers have had better records then Collins, who owns the Mets mark for most losses as a manger.  It leads to the question, why is it Collins lasted longer in New York than either Valentine or Johnson?  The answer is a complicated one for a man who has led the Mets over a complicated time period.

Collins took the helm for the Mets after the disastrous Jerry Manuel Era.  After bad mouthing his boss, Willie Randolph, he talked his way into the managerial job, and he oversaw his own collapse.  Despite that, the Mets decided to retain him as the new team manager as the Mets opened up a new ballpark.  In his two full seasons as Mets manager, his teams were 149-173.  This was despite having talented rosters with players like David Wright, Jose Reyes, and Carlos Beltran.

The Manuel Era was done in by a number of issues.  First, the team was not built well for the then cavernous Citi Field.  Second, high priced veterans like Luis Castillo and Jason Bay were playing up the standards of being an average major league player, let alone their contracts.  Third, the team deal with a number of injuries – some of which were exacerbated by Manuel’s decision making.  Mostly, the mix of manager, ballpark, and roster were doomed from the beginning.  It was time for new blood across the organization.

This was the stage upon which Collins entered as the Mets manager in 2011.  The team was mostly a mix of veterans nearing either the end of their contracts or their careers and some interesting players who could be talented major league players.  In the early part of Collin’s tenure, the Mets were teams that overachieved in the first half of the season, and then with trades, injuries, or players coming back to earth, the Mets would fall apart as the season progressed.

During the early part of Collins tenure as Mets manager, no one realistically believed the Mets were going to be contenders.  As a result, judging him by wins and losses seemed counter-intuitive.  Rather, you want to look at managers like this through the prism of their ability to get the most out of the talent on their roster.  Specifically, you want to see them develop some young players.

Things almost came to a head in 2014.  The Mets first real prized free agent acquisition of the Sandy Alderson Era, Curtis Granderson, was struggling.  The other, Bartolo Colon, was the staff ace, which meant Zack Wheeler was not progressing like the organization would have liked.  There were also struggles from Dilson Herrera, Travis d’Arnaud, and others.  It was not how the Mets envisioned this season would go, and if not for the Wilpons intervening, it would have been a different manager that led the Mets to the 2015 pennant.

It’s unsure to pinpoint the exact reason Collins survived.  The biggest skeptics will pinpoint Collins was due money, and the Wilpons, who were dealing with the Madoff scandal, were loathe to pay two different managers.  It’s possible Collins was saved because the Mets were not exactly under-performing.  There were also some positive signs for the team.

Lucas Duda not only won the first base job, but he hit 30 home runs.  Daniel Murphy was a first time All-Star.  Jenrry Mejia showed he was closer material.  Wheeler had a strong finish to the season.  Jeurys Familia looked like a closer in waiting.  Juan Lagares won a Gold Glove.  Jacob deGrom was a surprise Rookie of the Year.  Matt Harvey had just been the All Star Game starter the previous season, and he was set to return in 2015.  R.A. Dickey won a Cy Young Award that allowed the facilitation of the trade to bring over d’Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard.  Overall, you could see young pieces who could be part of the Mets’ future.  These were players who were cultivated under Collins.  It should also be kept in mind Collins created a certain atmosphere in the clubhouse that partially led to Wright signing a contract extension in 2012.  Overall, the pieces for a future contender were there, and they were all cultivated under Collins.

There’s another factor that is not often discussed with Collins is the fact he’s a good human being.  Time and again with Collins we hear little things he does that mean so much to people.  He has reached out to grieving Mets fans to offer his condolences.  He’s stopped the team during Spring Training to assemble them to spend some time with sick children.  He struck the right chord between honoring Jose Fernandez and trying to keep the Mets team competitive in that three game set.  That’s a harder job to do than we all give him credit.  Having a man like this around your team and leading young men is always a good thing.

And yet, there are plenty of instances where you look at Collins’ tenure and wonder how he’s lasted this long.  His usage of Tim Byrdak, Scott Rice, Johan Santana, Jim Henderson, and others have had a negative impact upon their ability to stay healthy.  Certainly, it can be argued these pitchers’ arms were ruined by Collins.

There has also been his over-reliance on his veteran players.  Despite Collins mantra that you hit you play, it really has only every been applied to young players.  It has twice taken a litany of injuries to get T.J. Rivera in the lineup.  Collins never would put Michael Conforto back in the lineup last year no matter his raking in Triple-A and his wrist being healthy.  Instead, he watched Jay Bruce continue to flail at the plate.  This year, we see him keeping Reyes and Granderson in the lineup despite their both hitting under the Mendoza Line.

More to the point, Collins allows the question to be asked over who exactly is in charge.  There are always reports Alderson dictates to him what should be done instead of Collins being allowed to manage the team as he wishes.  Collins allowed Reyes to pull himself from the last game of the 2011 season to preserve his batting title.  One of the lasting images of the 2015 World Series was Harvey telling him not to pull him from the game.

That World Series is certainly one that will haunt the Mets.  Collins made a number of questionable moves throughout that series which did not put his team in the best possible position to win.  Given how the Mets are struggling now, it does beg the question whether that was this core’s best opportunity to win a World Series.  But it’s more than that.  We have consistently seen Collins ignore reliever’s workloads and splits when making pitching changes.  He will send Wilmer Flores up there to pinch hit against right-handed pitchers even with other players still on the bench.  Overall, it is his in-game managing that leaves a lot to be desired.

Despite all of that, Collins is still here.  He has survived a lot to get to this point.  There was the Madoff scandal.  There was a rebuild that took a year or two longer than initially advertised.  He has consistently tried to hold a team together that has seen a number of injuries, brutal losses, and disheartening losing streaks.  He oversaw the transition from the Mets being a last place team to a team that almost won a World Series.

The Terry Collins’ Era will forever be a complicated one in Mets history.  To a certain extent, it does not matter that he is the manager who has managed the most games in Mets history.  That is mostly the result of circumstance.  Arguably, the circumstances have dictated Collins remain on for as long as he has.  Say what you will about the man, but he has always been accountable, never left you questioning his loyalty to the players or fans, and he has had the pulse of his clubhouse.  If nothing else, Collins is a leader of men, and as a man, you are hard pressed to find a better human being in baseball.

It does not matter if you believe someone else should have this record.  It’s Collins’ now.  He deserves everyone’s congratulations for it, and he deserves the respect of Mets fans for his tenure.

Debunking The Rosario Excuses

Fact is, the Mets season is on the brink.  They need to upgrade anywhere they can in order to help get the Mets season back on track.  For many, that starts with calling up Amed Rosario.  In response, many have offered excuses as to why the Mets shouldn’t call-up Rosario.  In reality, they are flimsy excuses.  Let’s go through them one-by-one:

EXCUSE #1: The Pitching Is the Problem and Rosario Doesn’t Pitch

Yes, the Mets and their MLB worst ERA is a big problem, and no, Rosario doesn’t pitch.  However, the Mets right now are playing Jose Reyes and his .189/.269/.310 batting line at shortstop.  Assuming the pitching doesn’t get any better, the Mets are going to have to out-slug teams to win games.  Reyes is not going to help that.

Also, the Mets defense at short has been terrible.  They rank dead last with a -9 DRS.  Better defense at an important defensive position like shortstop will only serve to help a pitching staff.  Take Robert Gsellman for example.  He has a 58% ground ball rate, and he is allowing a .368 BABIP.  With a better shortstop, especially one like Rosario who projects to be a very good defender, that BABIP can go down.  That is the result of Rosario being able to get to more balls and the rest of the infield being better positioned as a result.  That could result in a lower BABIP, which means base hits becomes outs.  Rallies thereby end sooner or don’t begin in the first place.  Gsellman can then go deeper into games and take pressure off the bullpen.

EXCUSE #2 You Don’t Want Rosario Up On a Short-Term Basis

Who says is has to be on a short-term basis?  Even assuming Asdrubal Cabrera is ready to come back at the end of his 10 day disabled list stint, why couldn’t Rosario stay in the major leagues?  You have the option to move Rosario to third base if you so choose.  You also have the option of moving Cabrera and his poor range to third base.  If Rosario comes up, and he’s shown he can play well defensively and hit well, he has shown he belongs to play at the major league level.  If that is the case, keep him up.

EXCUSE #3 He Doesn’t Have Enough Triple-A At-Bats

There is no precise formula detailing how many at-bats are needed in Triple-A.  Miguel Cabrera never played in Triple-A before his call-up, and he is well on his way to the Hall of Fame.  Matt Reynolds has 1,145 at-bats in Triple-A, and he is still not ready to consistently hit major league pitching.  There is no tried and true formula to follow.  Rosario has shown he can hit in Triple-A.  You either believe in him, or you don’t.

Excuse #4 You Don’t Want Him to Struggle and Be Sent Down

Why?  Keith Hernandez struggled as a 21 year old, and he was sent down.  After that, Hernandez won an MVP, 11 Gold Gloves, and two World Series titles.  After jumping on the scene in 2015, Michael Conforto had a nightmare of a 2016.  So far this year, he is hitting .327/.413/.654 with nine homers and 24 RBI.  Overall, if you are going to be great at the major league level like many believe Rosario will be, one set-back is not going to prevent you from fulfilling your potential.

EXCUSE #5 You Don’t Want to Bring Him Up into a Losing Situation

The corollary of this is you don’t want to bring up a prospect expecting him to be a savior.  In 1983, the Mets were nine games under .500 when Darryl Strawberry was called-up to the majors.  In 2003, the Mets were seven games under .500 when Reyes was called-up.  In 2004, the Mets were one game under .500 when David Wright was called-up to the majors.

Each of these players were immensely talented, and they have each had successful careers.  Being called-up into a losing situation or being asked to be a savior didn’t prevent them from being terrific players.

EXCUSE #6 He’s Had Too Many Errors This Year

Reyes and Cabrera have combined to post a -9 DRS, which again, is the worst in the majors.  Looking at how the team was built top to bottom, defense has been not incentivized.  Now all of a sudden, the Mets are going to care about defense when it comes to a player with plus range for the position?  Further, if he’s struggling, get him away from the terrible infield at Cashman Field, and get him some major league coaching.  You’re likely going to see a better defender out there.

EXCUSE #7 Calling Him Up Sends a Signal the Team is Panicking

Shouldn’t the Mets be panicking at this point?  The team has the worst ERA in baseball.  Their ace and closer are likely gone for the season.  They are already nine games behind the Nationals.  By all means, the Mets should be panicking.  Even if they aren’t panicking, they should be concerned.  The best way to address this would be to address the concerns the team has.  One of those concerns is the offensive and defensive production they get from shortstop.  Rosario can alleviate those concerns.

EXCUSE #8 He’s Not Ready to Hit Major League Pitching

On this front, you have to defer to the front office.  Despite Rosario’s terrific Triple-A numbers, we don’t really have a breakdown on his ability to hit a fastball or breaking pitches.  They can justifiably be seeing something we don’t see.  Still, the team is willing to go with Reyes, his poor defense, and his .189 batting average at the position.  Even if Rosario were to put up similar offensive numbers to Reyes, he’s going to do that with much better defense.  As a result, the Mets would be a better team with him on the field.  Furthermore, it should be noted that if he needs to make some improvements at the plate, he would be better served by working with Kevin Long.  \n

EXCUSE #9 What Do You Do With Him When Cabrera Returns?

Thumb issues like this are tricky.  We saw Juan Lagares try to play through a torn ligament in his thumb until he was finally forced to have surgery to repair the tear.  We still do not know if Cabrera needs surgery.  We don’t know if this is a two week or two month injury.

Assume for a minute Cabrera will be back sooner rather than later, the Mets have an opportunity to give Rosario a brief look at shortstop.  At the very least, it’s a reward for him being the time in to become an improved player.  It presents an opportunity to see if Rosario is ready.  When and if Cabrera comes back, the Mets can then judge if Rosario should stay up with the team or go back down to Triple-A.  If he were to go back down, he will have a better idea of what he needs to work on in order to stick at the major league level.

EXCUSE #10 You Don’t Want to Have Rosario Become a Super Two Player

So what?  Now the Mets aren’t all-in?  Did that only apply to signing Jerry Blevins and Fernando Salas?  If you are all-in, be all-in regardless of Super Two deadlines.

Overall, that’s the point.  If you are truly all-in, you do everything you can do to improve your team.  You do everything you can do to win games.  Every day the Mets keep Rosario in Vegas is another day this team is not all-in.  Rather, the team is letting everyone know they would rather lose with what they have this year.

Insight Into Terry Collins

Yesterday, when Terry Collins spoke with the media prior to the game, he said, “You just think in your heart he’s going to break out, so you want him in there.”  (Mike Puma, New York Post).  That quotation there perfectly summarizes how Collins manages this team.

During Collins’ tenure with the Mets, we have heard different philosophies as to how Collins manages the team.  At points, he has gone with “You hit, you play.”  Like many other managers, Collins has at times stated his belief that people will eventually play to the back of his baseball card.  He’s talked about playing the hot hand.  He’s referenced playing a hunch.  At different points in time, those may have been true.  However, overall, that’s not what Collins uses as his guiding principle in managing.

Typically speaking, Collins has an undying faith in his players.  That goes double for his veteran players.  This is why we see Curtis Granderson and Jose Reyes in the lineup despite both of them hitting below the Mendoza Line.  This is why it takes forever for T.J. Rivera to crack the lineup despite his hitting at each and every level he has played.

This is why he uses the same guys over and over again in the bullpen.  It’s not that he doesn’t have faith in Paul Sewald.  It is that he is supremely confident in Addison Reed, Fernando Salas, and Hansel Robles.  Collins has seen them perform in huge spots time and again.  He has confidence they will come up big in huge spots again because deep down Collins believes it.

Last night, Granderson rewarded him for his faith.  Despite being mired in what is among the worst slumps of his career, if not the worst, the .144 hitting Granderson went out there last night and went 1-3 with a bases loaded walk and a solo home run.  But that’s just one day.  Granderson and frankly the rest of the team is going to have the reward the faith Collins has in them.

If they don’t, things are going to get worse before they get any better.  Yes, things can actually get worse than they are right now.  They can because Collins is going to to rely on the same guys who are floundering time and time again until they fail, and even after that.  Deep down Collins has faith in his team.  It’s time they return the favor by playing much better much in the same way Granderson did last night.