Musings
In assessing how the Mets fared in the Addison Reed trade, let’s start with the obvious. The fact Sandy Alderson was able to turn Miller Diaz and Matt Koch into a great run with Reed plus Red Sox prospects Stephen Nogosek, Jamie Callahan, and Gerson Bautista was absolutely phenomenal. No, it doesn’t rank up there with Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud, and Wuilmer Becerra for R.A. Dickey, but nevertheless, it was a coup.
Still, the question remains whether Sandy got a good return for the 2017 version of Reed.
Let’s start with this. Since joining the Mets, Reed has been one of the best and more versatile relievers in baseball. He has deftly handed the seventh, eighth, and ninth inning. His 142.0 innings pitched since joining the Mets is fifth in baseball, and his 2.09 ERA over that stretch is great. Intuitively, you may not believe Reed is a top reliever in baseball, but he was. From 2016 to the present, Reed posted the sixth best fWAR in the majors (3.5). Aside from Kenley Jansen and Andrew Miller, who we all know are otherworldly right now, Reed is as good, if not better than any reliever in baseball.
Looking over the list of potential free agents, Reed could have arguably been considered one of if not the best reliever on the free agent market. With that being the case, it was likely worth gambling and giving him the qualifying offer putting his value at a second round pick or the equivalent.
Looking at the Mets haul, they most likely received that. The trio of arms all throw in the upper 90s. With respect to Nogosek and Bautista, they both have a good but inconsistent slider, and there are some control issues. If they figure it out, and realistically speaking, they are in the right organization to do so, the Mets have two potential late inning relievers. With Callahan, they have a near MLB ready reliever who can generate a high number of strikeouts and could be ready to help the Mets as soon as next year. To that end, the Mets certainly did receive a second round equivalent.
Where the debate becomes dicey is when you ask the question whether the Mets could have done better.
For starters, there is no real way of knowing that. We are not privy to the general back-and-forth between general mangers. We also don’t know if there was a theoretical better offer the Mets rejected because they liked the players the Red Sox offered more.
We should also consider, last year, the Yankees seemingly built an entire farm system (hyperbole) by trading Miller and Aroldis Chapman. Each trade fetched the Yankees two of their trade partners’ top five prospects. In terms of Gleyber Torres, it got them one of the best prospects in baseball.
With Reed arguably being the top reliever on the market with at least eight teams interested, it makes you question how the Mets walk out of a deal without an organization’s top five prospect. The counter-argument is the prices this year are not the same as they were last year. In the end, we have no idea if this was the proverbial best trade, and the reviews on the trade have been all over the place.
Ultimately, I find the trade underwhelming, and I do question the Mets motives a bit. If you look at their recent moves, they have all been bullpen driven. Lucas Duda was moved for Drew Smith. The team went out and obtained AJ Ramos. Now, the Mets got an arguably low return for a trio of fireball throwing relievers. I’m not so sure the Mets approached this trade deadline with the intent on rebuilding the minor league system as much as they were intent on rebuilding their bullpen.
In the end, if the Mets goal was really to build the bullpen in the trade market, they have to back that up by spending real money in the free agent market to back up their decisions. If they don’t do this, they may not have only lost out on the possibility on maximizing their returns for the pieces they did move, they may also miss out on the 2018 postseason.
Entering the trade deadline, the Mets had eight players who were impending free agents and another two who could be free agents if the Mets declined their 2018 options. Despite the Mets looking to get something in return for each of these prospects, they walked away from the trade deadline having made just two deals:
Lucas Duda for Rays minor league reliever Drew Smith
Addison Reed for Red Sox minor league relievers Stephen Nogosek, Jamie Callahan, and Gerson Bautista
If you are going to question why the Mets didn’t do more look no further than their 48-55 record. Simply put, the teams in contention didn’t have much interest in the players who have led the Mets from potential World Series contenders to also-rans.
Sure, there will be people who point out it was not a robust market for position players. That’s true, but it did not prevent the White Sox from moving Melky Cabrera, the Athletics from moving Adam Rosales, or for that matter, the Mets from moving Duda. This brings about the question over why teams weren’t interested in the Mets pieces. For each player, there is a different answer:
RF/1B Jay Bruce
2017 Stats: .263/.326/.523, 19 2B, 27 HR, 72 RBI, 2.3 WAR
When assessing why teams aren’t interested in Bruce, one thing to keep in mind is team’s don’t covet home runs much in the same fashion they once did. Remember, Chris Carter went from winning the National League home run title last year to being a non-tendered free agent with little interest on the free agent market. So, yes, the 27 homers are good, but they do not completely define a player’s value.
Keep in mind, Bruce is no longer considered a good defensive player. While, it should be noted his 8 DRS and 2.6 UZR are good defensive numbers, it is coming off a season where he posted a -11 DRS and a -8.9 UZR. To the eyes, Bruce does look a step slower in right.
As for the rest of the value, Bruce has shown himself to be a first half player who tapers off in the second half. To that end, he hit .250/.281/.500 in July. Potentially, this could be the beginning of a prolonged slump like we saw Bruce have with the Mets last year. Certainly, other teams noticed that as well, and they might be scared off by how poorly he performed when asked to change teams mid-season.
INF Asdrubal Cabrera
2017 Stats: .260/.339/.404, 15 2B, 9 HR, 30 RBI, SB, -0.4 WAR
In 2017, Cabrera got hurt, and when he was asked to move off shortstop, a position where he has posted a -9 DRS and -4.7 UZR, he balked. First, he demanded his option be picked-up, then he demanded a trade. Things like that don’t go over well when you have shown yourself to have a lack of range at three infield positions, and you are not hitting well at the plate.
OF Curtis Granderson
2017 Stats: .224/.330/.446, 20 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 38 RBI, 3 SB
To a certain extent, the relative lack of interest in Granderson is surprising. After a slow and painful start, he has been a much better player since June 1st hitting .258/.404/.558. He’s also accepted a role on the bench without being an issue in the clubhouse. As a pinch hitter this year, he is hitting .267/.421/.533. If your team has an injury, you know he can capably fill in at three outfield positions. He’s also a tremendous clubhouse presence. Ultimately, this tells us teams were scared off by his age and his $15 million contract.
INF Jose Reyes
2017 Stats: .226/.289/.387, 17 2B, 6 3B, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 13 SB, -1.0 WAR
Let’s start with the obvious. Adding Reyes to your team is a potential PR nightmare. The Cubs thought it worthwhile for Aroldis Chapman, but it is likely no one is going down that road with a below replacement level player. As noted, the main issue is Reyes has been bad this year. Even with the recent surge, he still hasn’t been great this year, and there was zero interest even before he was hit on the hand.
C Rene Rivera
2017 Stats: .232/.277/.374, 4 2B, 6 HR, 20 RBI
Rivera’s reputation as a defensive catcher and pitching whisperer has taken a bit of a hit this year. Whatever the reason, he did not have the same touch with pitchers like Robert Gsellman like he did last year. Also, while he is throwing out more base runners, he has taken a significant step back as a pitch framer. Overall, he still has a good defensive reputation and is a good backup catcher, but he hasn’t excelled in the areas where he excelled in year’s past.
2B Neil Walker
2017 Stats: .266/.347/.455, 13 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, 34 RBI, 0.9 WAR
If Walker stayed healthy, there may have been some semblance of a trade market for him. When he has played he has hit, but he has only played in 63 games as a result of a partially torn left hamstring. This was a year after he had season ending back surgery. Between the injury history and his $17.2 million salary, the lack of trade interest in him is certainly understandable.
Looking at the above, it is understandable why there was at best tepid interest in the Mets trade pieces. That is why they are still on the Mets roster. However, this does not preclude an August trade. To that end, Mets fans were all disappointed the Mets weren’t able to moved Marlon Byrd at the 2013 non-waiver deadline. Twenty-seven days later, Byrd was traded with John Buck for Dilson Herrera and Vic Black.
Hopefully, not moving these players is just a temporary set-back. Hopefully, the failure to move these players does not prevent the Mets from calling up Dominic Smith and Amed Rosario to the majors.
By the end of August 2015, it was clear the Mets were going to the postseason. With that in mind, the Mets needed to do something to address their bullpen – something that has been a theme of the Sandy Alderson Era. The Mets did just that in August picking up both Eric O’Flaherty and Addison Reed. Given the Mets lack of a LOOGY, it was believed O’Flaherty was the bigger pickup. Boy was that wrong.
At the time Reed joined the Mets, he was having his worst season as a professional pitching to a 4.20 ERA with the Diamondbacks and having made a trip down to Triple-A. Due to his relatively high salary, he was likely ticketed to be non-tendered in the offseason. When the Mets obtained him, it was little more than a gamble for a pitcher with prior closing experience. Certainly, Miller Diaz and Matt Koch were worth paying for the gamble. As we know, that gamble paid off.
From the minute Reed put on a Mets uniform, it was like he was a completely different pitcher. Seemingly, he found one of the remaining telephone booths in Queens, stripped out of his Diamondbacks uniform, and emerged as an elite MLB reliever.
To close out the year, he’d make 17 appearances going 1-1 with a 1.17 ERA, 1.043 WHIP, and a 10.0 K/9. At a minimum, Reed locked down the seventh inning for a team hoping to make it to the World Series. As we know, the Mets did, and Reed played his part.
Reed would appear in nine of the Mets 14 postseason games, and he would appear in all five World Series games. Reed was reliable in those games allowing no runs in seven of those appearances and just one run in another. That one run came in Game Two of the NLDS right after Chase Utley broke Ruben Tejada‘s leg.
In the World Series, where three of the five games had been a battle of the bullpens, Reed had mostly done his job. Through the first four games, he had allowed no runs and just one hit. Unfortunately, with him being on fumes, he fell apart in Game Five of the World Series becoming the losing pitcher after allowing three runs in the 12th inning.
Reed would emerge from this heartache as possibly the best pitcher in the National League in 2016. During the 2016 season, Reed made 80 appearances going 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA, a 0.940 WHIP, a 10.5 K/9, 209 ERA+, and a 1.98 FIP. His 2.9 WAR that season was the highest among relievers. In short, he was great out of the bullpen. All year long he helped a team with little bullpen depth stay afloat, and when he last stepped off the mound in the Wild Card Game, the Mets still had a chance to advance to the NLDS.
This year, all he had to do was step in for Jeurys Familia and become the team’s closer. Like he had done in his entire Mets career, Reed took on the role the Mets needed him to do, and he was great at it. In what was his final stint with the Mets, Reed made 31 appearances going 1-2 with 19 saves, a 2.57 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, and an 8.8 K/9.
Since joining the Mets, Reed was one of the best relief pitchers in baseball. He has pitched the fifth most innings (142.0) while maintaining a sterling 2.09 ERA. He has fulfilled whatever role the Mets needed him to fulfill by going from 7th to 8th and finally to the 9th inning. In that sense, Reed has become the rare pitcher in baseball. He took on whatever role was asked of him, and he performed well in that role.
In essence, Reed was exactly what you want in a bullpen arm. He was a guy who went out there and did whatever the team needed. He was used frequently, and he was one of the few arms who was not burned out by Terry Collins during his Mets tenure. He was a great reliever, and some would go so far as to say he was Raddison.
Reed is now a member of the Boston Red Sox. He goes to a team in need of a reliever capable of setting up for Craig Kimbrel. As we have seen during his Mets tenure, Reed can certainly do that. He can also give Kimbrel the occasional day off.
In the end, Reed is where he belongs. He is with a contender. Hopefully, he gets that ring he feel agonizingly short of winning in 2015. Hopefully, he will have the same success with the Red Sox he found with Mets. Hopefully, with his being an impending free agent, Reed finds his way back to New York.
Even if he doesn’t, Reed was a good Met who twice helped pitch the Mets into the postseason. Now, it is time to wish him well as he once again pursues October glory. Here’s hoping he finds it this time.
If we are being honest, it has been a bizarre year from Sandy Alderson. The team had an outfield surplus that would have been solved by the Mets being willing to eat some salary. In turn, that could have allowed the Mets to build the bullpen they needed to build in order to win. Instead, the team was willing to start Michael Conforto, this team’s lone All Star, in the minors, so they could double-down on their curious Jay Bruce decision last year.
The team also has repeatedly refused to call-up Amed Rosario using many reasons as a smokescreen. The best one of those was Rosario not being a pitcher. Of course, that just overlooks the Mets pitchers having a major league worst .321 BABIP and the left side of the infield having a major league worst -33 DRS. How could Rosario, a player ticketed as a future Gold Glover, possibly help that?
Then we have the truly bizarre Josh Edgin DFA decision.
There is some things to like and dislike about Edgin. He’s both allowed the most inherited runners to score, and he’s prevented the most inherited runners to score on the Mets. He’s top three in both, but his 75% strand rate is still pretty good. He has a 3.65 ERA, but a 117 ERA+.
The Mets made this decision because they had to accomodate newly acquired AJ Ramos on the roster. They did this despite the Mets having room on the 40 man roster, and the team having some dead weight on the MLB roster. Certainly, the Mets could have easily sent Josh Smoker or Erik Goeddel to Las Vegas. If they wanted to DFA someone, Fernando Salas has been begging for it with his arm having apparently fallen off sometime in late April.
Well, it was a good thing the Mets didn’t have Edgin around to blow yet another Sunday game.
Like most Sunday games this season, this one was over early. After Seth Lugo allowed homers to Nelson Cruz in the first and Leonys Martin in the second, it was 4-0 Mariners. A second inning Robinson Cano double made it 5-0. With the Mets doing nothing against Mariners starter James Paxton.
Sure, Lugo settled in and didn’t allow any further damage keeping it at least plausible the Mets could get back into this game. Those dreams ended when the aforementioned Smoker and Salas allowed unearned runs effectively putting an out of reach game out of hand. Both errors were made by Neil Walker, but it doesn’t matter because Sandy told us defense doesn’t help pitching.
Having lost the series, the Mets are now leaving Seattle. It will be interesting to see who joins them in Colorado and who will be going to another destination.
Game Notes: Asdrubal Cabrera was given a day off for rest. When Jose Reyes left the game after getting hit by a pitch, Matt Reynolds shifted from third to short, and Cabrera played third.
One lesson we may be learning during the 2017 season with Rafael Montero is you should give talented prospects every possible chance to succeed because when they figure it out, you are going to have useful, cheap, and talented players on your major league roster. That is a key component in helping construct teams that go to and win World Series.
Like Montero, another player Mets fans have grown somewhat accustomed to hearing about is catcher Kevin Plawecki. Like Montero, Plawecki seems like he is figuring things out this season.
Since being rushed to the majors in 2015, Plawecki has done little more than struggle in a New York Mets uniform. Over the past three seasons, Plawecki has hit .206/.282/.278 in 131 major league games. This year was a low for him with him just hitting .125/.214/.167 in 10 games for the Mets.
After Plawecki was sent down to Triple-A after his poor stint in the majors, he has been a much better player. In 37 games, Plawecki has hit .350/.440/.552 with 11 doubles, six homers, and 24 RBI. If you had never donned a Mets uniform, it is likely Mets fans would be clamoring for the 26 year old 2012 first round pick to get called up to the majors.
There are many reasons why Plawecki is thriving now. First and foremost, he is getting that extended look at Triple-A he always needed. Remember, when he was first called-up to the majors, he had only played nine career games in Triple-A. Last year, he spent most of the year as a backup, and then he played just about half a season in Triple-A. It is possible he is settled in Triple-A now, getting the coaching he needs, and it is starting to click for him.
It should also be remembered the catching position is one of the most challenging positions to master. Young catchers have to put in more time at their position than most other prospects. Typically, we will see at least one aspect of a young catcher’s game lag behind. For some, it’s the bat. For others, it’s the defense. In Plawecki’s case, it has been the bat.
Now, it shouldn’t be ruled out this is some statistical fluke or just the product of a hot streak. Plawecki’s numbers since getting demoted are fueled by a .383 BABIP. There should also be concerns over his poor 5.8% walk rate. However, Plawecki does have a good 14.2% strikeout rate, and he is hitting the ball much better. His groundball rate has plummeted leading to him hitting more line drives. He is also become a batter who uses the whole field instead of focusing on just pulling the ball.
In totality, it means there is a lot to like what is going on with Plawecki. When you combine that with his good skills behind the plate, especially his pitch framing, you have a player who once again looks like he is a major league caliber catcher. Whether that is as a starter or a back-up is yet to be determined.
This is important because he is out of options after this year, and with the Mets going nowhere it doesn’t serve them much to keep him in Vegas. If they need to put him on the Major League roster or lose him for nothing, they need to get him on the roster sooner rather than later to see if he really is an improved player. Considering how far he has come this season and Rene Rivera being a free agent, he could very well be Travis d’Arnaud‘s backup entering the 2018 season.
Now, one thing I have been upfront about is that I am partial to Lucas Duda. For me, seeing Duda go from the Mets organization was more than just seeing a good player leave, it does close a small chapter of my life. Unlike most writers, I want to be upfront about my biases because everyone writes with some bias. If you understand that, you’re better able to assess the evaluation.
Now before addressing this specific trade, Duda was arguably worth a second round pick or the equivalent due to the changes in the qualifying offer system. Ultimately, when assessing the Mets trade of Duda for Drew Smith, the question is whether the Mets accomplished that in this deal.
The answer? Maybe.
On the one hand, only earlier this year his trade value was just a fourth outfielder in Mikie Mahtook. However, judging his value on that alone is silly. It’s very possible the Tigers made a bad trade. It’s also possible Smith got better as the year progressed. With Smith, it seems both might be true.
Based on various scouting reports, Smith is a reliever who throws it in the high 90s and he can reach 99 MPH. He combines that with a good but inconsistent curveball. Both pitches have been dominant for him this year with him going 1-2 with a 1.60 ERA, 0.911 WHIP, and an 8.0 K/9 across three levels of the minors and in two different organizations. Smith certainly gets the most out of these pitches because he locates both of these pitches well.
Looking at the stats and his stuff, there is a lot to like. He has been getting good results. One thing that stands out with him is he has allowed just five extra base hits in 45.0 innings pitched. Four of those extra base hits were doubles, and the lone home run he has allowed was to now fellow Mets prospect Peter Alonso. Remarkably, that homer is the only one he has allowed in his career.
On the downside is there’s not a lot of strikeouts. For someone with his stuff, you’d expect a lot more. More troubling is the fact he has yet to strike anyone above Single-A. It should be noted he’s pitched 4.2 innings above Single-A. One of the reasons why his strikeouts are low could be his fastball is a straight fastball.
Given his repertoire and the low amount of strikeouts, as Mets fans we may be looking at another Bobby Parnell or Vic Black. Depending on your point of view, that’s a good or bad thing.
Ultimately, Smith is an interesting relief prospect, but in some ways, he’s also a project. Given Duda’s production, the Mets probably should have done better than this. Arguably, they should have also received another lower level prospect in return to mitigate some of the boom/bust potential in Smith.
However, this analysis does ignore the down market for sluggers like Duda, and the fact Sandy Alderson probably waited too long to trade him. It also ignores this is a pitcher with high upside. If he hits his ceiling, and he’s in an organization where he very well could, you’re probably calling this trade a win for the Mets.
Another factor is this trade does make room for Dominic Smith to play sooner rather than later. This will allow Smith to get his feet wet this year and make the necessary adjustments heading into the 2018 season to help him be a much better player.
Overall, the Mets likely sold low on Duda. In the end, we’re probably not going to care much if Smith becomes the 10 time All Star Duda said he wants him to become. We’ll care even less if Smith becomes a dominant late inning reliever. As of today, anything is possible
With the Mets trading Lucas Duda to the Tampa Bay Rays, we bring an end to the Mets career of one of the better Mets in their history, and we also see the beginning of the end of an era of Mets baseball.
Duda was a player with a promising bat the Mets that first Omar then Sandy tried to get into the lineup. With players blocking his path to his natural first base position, Duda would be moved to the outfield. Duda would be standing there ins what was then a fairly cavernous right field when Johan Santana threw the first no-hitter in Mets history. Lost in that game was Duda homering in the sixth to put the game away.
Despite Duda being in the outfield during one of the biggest moments in Mets history, it became increasingly clear he wasn’t an outfielder. He belonged at first base. The fact he even forced a competition for the spot with Ike Davis was impressive. Duda did all he could to wrestle that spot from Davis, and he finally showed the Mets what he could do hitting 30 home runs in 2014. He had more in store in 2015.
When people have typically written about the 2015 season, they usually credit with Yoenis Cespedes for winning the National League East. This overlooks how Duda almost single-handedly pulled the Mets into first place in 2015:
In that pivotal series that saw the Mets go from second to first place, Duda was 8-9 with a double, three homers, and five RBI. With Mets fans debate over whether Duda was clutch or not, this series should answer the question in the affirmative.
As we know that season would eventually end in heartbreak. Duda played his part throwing away the ball in Game 5 allowing Eric Hosmer to score the tying run. It was hard to watch, and unfortunately, it masked all the good he had done that season including his grand slam in the division clincher and his homer effectively sealing the pennant:
These are many of the many great things Duda has done in a Mets uniform. He was the second Mets player in history to hit three home runs in a game at home. Shockingly, he was second to Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Speaking of homering at Citi Field, Duda leaves the Mets as the all-time leader in home runs at Citi Field.
Hitting homers was one of the things Duda did well. This year, he passed notable Mets like Edgardo Alfonzo, Kevin McReynolds, and Todd Hundley to finish his Mets career with the seventh most in Mets history. Depending on whether you view Dave Kingman as an outfielder or first baseman, Duda’s 125 Mets homers are either the most or second most for a Mets first baseman.
There were many great moments with Duda, but none of the aforementioned moments were my favorite. My favorite Duda moment was a seemingly meaningless Spring Training Game in 2015.
One night, I was sitting up watching the game with my then one year old half watching a Spring Training game when Duda ripped a double leading to an enthusiastic Gary Cohen call to the effect of “LUCAS DUDA rips an RBI double . . . .” My son immediately latched on and began screaming Duda, and he wanted to see Duda play more and hit more. As that season wore on, he became more and more interested in baseball, and he would learn the Mets players. First one he’d learn:
That was a magical year as both a father and a Mets fan. I’d get to see the Mets go to the World Series for the third time in my life, but it would be the first time I’d get to experience it with my son. I still remember him trying to stay up to watch the games with me. I remember him getting me a Duda jersey for Father’s Day and getting the Duda growth chart at one of the Mets games. Even with Duda gone, we will still use it. I also remember him going crazy during that World Series cheering for the Mets:
Duda leaving does not only mean we are saying good bye to a good player who began his career with the Mets. We are also saying good-bye to a part of a Mets era. It was an era that saw the Mets go from a frustrating team a team that came so close to winning a World Series.
On a personal note, I see Duda leaving as part of the ever changing realization that my son is no longer a baby – he’s now a little boy. He doesn’t just snuggle up with me at bedtime trying to watch Mets games, he now goes outside and plays baseball with me.
It was time to move on, especially with Dominic Smith waiting in the wings. Still, as Curtis Granderson would point out, you just want to hold onto all of these moments just a little longer:
Like Granderson, I still want to hold on to not just Duda, but all of these memories. In reality, it’s time to move on to bigger and better things. With that said, I enjoyed each and every minute Duda was a Met (except for that throw), and I appreciate all he has done in a Mets uniform. He was a class act, who was always there to answer questions in even the hardest of times. On a personal note, he helped make another great fan. He deserves another opportunity to win a World Series, and I hope he does get that ring.
Good luck Lucas Duda.
While many Mets fans wanted Amed Rosario or Dominic Smith to be the first major call-up of the 2017 season, with Zack Wheeler‘s potentially season ending injury, that honor is going to go to Mets right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen.
Heading into the 2017 season, Flexen was added to the 40 man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, and Mets Minors rated him the Mets 20th best prospect. As noted in the prospect analysis, Flexen had all the tools to be a good starting pitcher. His fastball is the mid to upper 90s. His curveball was a devastating out pitch. What was holding him back was the refinement of his change-up, and his delivery.
With his working with both Marc Valdes in St. Lucie and Glenn Abbott in Binghamton, he has largely address those issues. The results have been astounding.
In 10 starts this year, Flexen is 6-1 with two complete games, a 1.76 ERA, 0.815 WHIP, and a 9.2 K/9. For a pitcher that spent much of his professional career struggling with control he has dropped his BB/9 from 3.4 last year to 1.5 this year. Opposing batters are hitting just .183/.217/.260 against him. Put simply, Flexen has been a dominant starting pitcher this year who has certainly earned a call to the major leagues.
When he toes the rubber on a major league mound for the first time tonight, Flexen brings not just his big right arm, but he also brings hope in what has been an otherwise dismal 2018 season.
He brings the hope Matt Harvey did when he went from a start in 2012 to starting the 2013 All Star Game. He brings the hope we saw when Jacob deGrom took an unexpected opportunity and became the 2014 National League Rookie of the Year. Noah Syndergaard and his 100 MPH gave you hope the 2015 Mets could win a World Series, and he did his part being the only Mets pitcher to win a World Series Game at Citi Field. We also had hope that hot June afternoon when Steven Matz and his grandfather become beloved figures.
All four of these pitchers turned that hope into a National League Pennant in 2015. It has been a rough road since, but the Mets are not far away from returning to that point. Seeing Flexen toe the rubber tonight, we can once again have hope and dream the Mets can return to the World Series.
Flexen has a big arm, and he has been dominating the minor leagues. He is joining a pitching staff who very well know what it is like to dominate hitters. He’s joining a pitching staff that wants to get back to that point. If he pitches well enough tonight and for the rest of the season, he may very well be a member of that rotation in 2018.
That’s what Flexen’s start tonight is. It’s hope. Hope that the 2017 season was just a one year blip. Hope the Mets have another big arm who can complete the rotation. Hope the Mets can win the World Series as soon as next year.
Last year was an abomination for Travis d’Arnaud. The catcher had another injury plagued year, and he eventually lost his starting job to Rene Rivera. Part of the reason was his manager did not trust him catching Noah Syndergaard because he could not hold on base runners. The other part was he believed Rivera to be some sort of pitcher whisperer leading him to catch Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo when they joined the rotation. With d’Arnaud hitting just .247/.307/.323, he didn’t exactly force his way into the lineup.
That made the 2017 season a pivotal one for d’Arnaud.
Things started out well for him. Fifteen games into the season, d’Arnaud had seemingly recaptured his 2015 hitting .270/.357/.541, and then as always seems to be the case with him an injury happened. While following through on a throw to second base, d’Arnaud’s hand hit the bat of Aaron Altherr causing him to the leave the game. With the Mets being the Mets, they had d’Arnaud play through the injury until he could no longer.
In the subsequent 10 games, d’Arnaud would hit .091/.167/.364. With him obviously unable to play, the Mets finally put him on the disabled list with a bone bruise in his wrist.
When d’Arnaud came back, he struggled at the plate hitting .234/.278/.430 from the date he was activated from the disabled list into the All Star break. Part of this was his extremely low .247 BABIP. Now, d’Arnaud has typically always had low BABIPs with a career .273 mark entering this season. Even in his career year in 2015, it was just .289. Still, he was never a .247 BABIP hitter.
There may be many reasons for this. Players tend to suffer the ill effects of hand and wrist injuries after the injuries have been deemed healed enough to play. It’s also possible d’Arnaud suffered from Terry Collins‘ time sharing system with d’Arnaud having his pitchers and Rivera having the others. It’s possible this prevented d’Arnaud from getting into a rhythm. It’s also possible it was just a stretch of bad luck.
Whatever the case, d’Arnaud has been a much better player coming out of the All Star break. Over the past nine games, d’Arnaud is hitting .333/.394/.400 with two doubles and five RBI. Despite his not hitting for much power, he’s gotten some big RBIs.
But it’s more than just his hitting. Recently, d’Arnaud has done more to take over the game from behind the plate. The other day when Addison Reed was in a war of words with Home Plate Umpire Dan Iassogna, d’Arnaud stepped in, and he probably saved the closer from an ejection from a hot headed umpire. We’ve also seen him make more mound visits to get a pitcher back in the inning and the game.
No, he’s still not doing a good job throwing out base runners going 0-3 in the second half. In a surprising turn of events, d’Arnaud actually has poor pitch framing numbers. Still, we know he’s been typically very good in that area, and he’s likely going to return to being good in that area again. Just watching games, it seems like he’s getting that outside corner again.
Overall, it appears d’Arnaud is finally showing the Mets he is a complete catcher. It’s coming at an important time as well. The organization is in a period of transition with the team being in a position to sell at the deadline. When you have a season like the Mets have had you have to reassess everyone . . . d’Arnaud included. If he continues to catch this well, he is going to cement his status as the Mets everyday catcher in 2018.
The caveat of course is he needs to stay healthy. That’s always easier said that done with him.
Looking at the numbers, Jay Bruce is having one of his better seasons as a professional and a much better season than most expected with his nightmare stint with the Mets last year. So far, he has played in 91 games hitting .264/.328/.523 with 25 homers and 67 RBI. If he were to finish the season with the Mets, he may very possibly challenge the Mets single season home run mark of 41 shared by Todd Hundley and Carlos Beltran. He should not get that chance.
Simply put, the Mets have to trade Jay Bruce at the trade deadline.
The 30 year old right fielder is a free agent at the end of the season. Given the fact the Mets are not going anywhere this season with or without him, there is no reason to hold onto him. There’s even less reason when you consider the Mets are probably better off without him next year.
Heading into next year, the Mets will have Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto firmly set in the Mets outfield for the next three years. During their tenure with the Mets, both players have shown they are capable of handling center on a short term basis, but both players have also shown they should not be playing center field on a full time basis. With respect to Cespedes, it is clear neither side wants him moving back to center.
On Conforto’s part, he seemingly wants to play the position. On the surface, he appears serviceable at the position with a 225.2 innings at the position, Conforto has a 0 DRS and a 1.2 DRS. Given his work ethic and his athletic ability, he could improve those numbers. However, he’s not likely to improve them to the point where he’s a good enough defender at the position.
Ultimately, the Mets need a good center fielder. Their Mets center fielders, including Conforto, have posted a 0 DRS, which is 18th in the majors. The Mets are in the bottom half of the league defensively at an important defensive position. That has been a common theme with this team. This is a bad defensive team that has been bad at key defensive positions.
This has had a direct result on the struggles on the pitching staff. As a team, the Mets pitchers have allowed an absurdly high .320 BABIP, which is dead last in the majors. Yes, the pitching staff has had some issues, and yes, the left side of the infield, which is atrocious with a -29 DRS contribute to this. Another contributing factor is the lack of a true center fielder who can cover the amount of ground a major league center fielder needs to cover. Again, the Mets center fielders are 18th in the majors. The team needs an upgrade.
Part of that is finally finding out what Brandon Nimmo can provide. At a minimum, the Mets need to see if he can platoon with Juan Lagares next year. For that to happen, the Mets need to trade Jay Bruce to free up some playing time for Nimmo.
If Nimmo can handle the job, great. If not, the Mets could decide to go with Lagares, or they can look outside the organization for players like Lorenzo Cain. The one thing they cannot do is bring back Jay Bruce.
Bruce has been a good player for the Mets, he has been healthy, and he has done all the team has asked him to do. The reward for that is to send him to a contender. It’s not to bring him back on an overpriced deal or to risk getting stuck overpaying him on a qualifying offer next year. Bringing him back is only going to cement the Mets defensive problems, and it is going to lead to another season like this. No one should want that, Jay Bruce included.
Accordingly, it is time the Mets put defense front and center, and move on from Jay Bruce.