Musings
Last year, Player’s weekend was a hit as fans got to see their favorite players wear fun jerseys featuring their nicknames on the back of their jerseys. Believe it or not, some of those were nicknames were rejected for various reasons.
For example, Brandon Nimmo wanted to use his Twitter handle, You Found Nimmo, but MLB was afraid of copyright issues. When it came to Kyle Seager, he wanted to go with “Corey’s Better.” With that rejected, he paid homage to his brother Corey Seager by merely noting on his jersey he was “Corey’s Brother.”
Well, the Mets officially approved Player’s Weekend nicknames and jerseys have been released. However, as noted with Nimmo, there were other names the players wanted which were rejected by MLB:
Tyler Bashlor – Mickey, I’m Available To Pitch
Jose Bautista – Trade Value Going, Going, Gone!
Jerry Blevins – One Magic LOOGY
Michael Conforto – Shouldering The Load
Travis d’Arnaud – d’L
Jacob deGrom – Fewest Wins 4 Cy Young Winner
Phillip Evans – DFA TBA
Wilmer Flores – ????????
Todd Frazier – Regrets, I’ve Joined The Mets
Robert Gsellman – Don’t Care What You Think
Luis Guillorme – Assistant to the Regional Manager
Austin Jackson – 2019 Opening Day CF
Juan Lagares – Out For The Season
Seth Lugo – Quarterrican (That’s perfection; you don’t mess with that)
Steven Matz – Not So Strong Island
Jeff McNeil – 2B/3B/OF
Devin Mesoraco – Harvey’s Better
Brandon Nimmo – Don’t Worry, Be Happy
Corey Oswalt – Vargas (figured it was the only way he would get a start)
Kevin Plawecki – Plawful
Jose Reyes – Melaza Virus
Jacob Rhame – Stay (Refers to his roster spot and glasses)
Amed Rosario – Mentor Wanted
Paul Sewald – AAAAll Star
Dominic Smith – Waist And Future Gone
Drew Smith – Mickey, I’m Available To Pitch (Yes, it’s a repeat of Bashlor. They’re trying to prove a point.)
Anthony Swarzak – Still Just One Good Season
Noah Syndergaard – 60’6″ Away
Jason Vargas – $16 Million Dollar Man
Bobby Wahl – After All, I’m Your . . .
Zack Wheeler – Finally Good
David Wright – Hurts Here Doc
When you go team-by-team across Major League Baseball, players who were supposedly signed to be the proverbial 25th man do not serve as a constant distraction. In the occasions that player becomes a distraction, they are cut. However, most teams are not the New York Mets, and most players are not Jose Reyes.
It was just two days ago, Mickey Callaway finally had to answer the question about how much ownership’s interference has led to Callaway playing Reyes as frequently as he has. Naturally, no one believed Callaway when he said there wasn’t any interference. Of course, no one believes that because Reyes’ play was precipitated by his going public with his complaints.
When speaking to Matt Ehalt of nj.com, Reyes had the audacity to say, “”I believe in what I can do. But it’s hard for me if there isn’t opportunity out there.”
Note, Reyes was signed to be a utility infielder, one who refused to get reps in the outfield during Spring Training which could have opened the door for more at-bats during the season.
And just so Reyes is aware, the last guy on the bench plays very sparingly, especially on good teams. In 1999, Luis Lopez played 68 games, and in 2000, he would play in 78. His former teammate, Julio Franco, started just 25 games for the 2006 Mets.
The difference between Reyes and those and many other players have been they learned how to handle the role, and they did it gracefully. More than that, they were productive.
Once again, Reyes has been just about one of the worst players in baseball. Really, you have to spend a significant amount of time to find what he does well.
Reyes has a -0.8 WAR, 52 wRC+, and a -4 DRS in the field. Over the last two years, Reyes has hit .231/.301/.380 with an 83 wRC+, and -1.2 WAR. The Mets are actually paying $2 million for this.
By contrast, the Mets opted to nontender Eric Campbell a contract. With respect to Campbell, he was a .221/.312/.311 hitter in three years with the Mets with an 80 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR. Defensively, he was a 0 DRS, and he was willing to play every position in the field.
Bascially, Reyes has been no better than Campbell, a guy who struggled in Japan last year and is playing in Triple-A this season. By contrast, Reyes is not only takingHea up a spot on a Major League roster, he is demanding and receiving playing time.
One of the reasons why is his ties to ownership. Yes, Ehalt’s article noted Reyes didn’t speak with Jeff Wilpon or Sandy Alderson. Of course, that made the failure to mention Fred Wilpon all the more glaring. It is something Howard Megdal addressed in his Deadspin article about how often the Wilpons are around:
Oh yeah, this year, all the time,” Reyes said, when asked how often owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon are in the clubhouse and around the team. “They come here a lot. Jeff was here yesterday. Fred is here all the time.
That’s no small thing especially in light of how Reyes has seen increasing playing time he has not merited. It isn’t just fans who feel that way, it’s people within the Mets organization. As Megdal reported, “Pro scouting advised his removal from the roster a long time ago.”
Ultimately, that leaves us with the question, why is Reyes here?
In 2016, we knew the answer was because the Wilpons didn’t care enough about how severely Reyes beat his wife. David Wright was done for the year, and his replacements weren’t cutting it. The team wanted to win, so they sold their soul to host the Wild Card Game.
In 2017, the selling point was Reyes performed admirably done the stretch, and the team needed insurance for Wright’s back.
In 2017, Reyes was absolutely terrible, and the team insisting on trying to get him going was one of the more prominent reasons why that season fell apart. Really, Reyes did not hit well until September where he went on a tear. Of course, that was too little way too late.
Despite Reyes being terrible, he was back this season. With the Mets signing Todd Frazier, he was going to be a bench piece. With his September, he was supposed to be much better this year. More than anything, he was purportedly brought back to mentor Amed Rosario.
On the Rosario front, he has been much worse this year than he was last year. In 2017, he was a -0.2 WAR player with a 74 wRC+ and a -1 DRS. This season, Rosario is a -1.0 WAR with a 68 wRC+ and a -16 DRS. Seeing his play this year, the Mets are now contemplating him being a center fielder.
Seeing Rosario’s play, it leads you to ask the question, “How exactly is Reyes mentoring Rosario?”
On that front, Kevin Kernan of the New York Post said, “He’s not mentoring as much as you think.”
If we sum this all up, with Jose Reyes, the Mets have a player, who:
- Can’t hit
- Can’t field
- Gripes publicly
- Is not mentoring younger players
- Is not worthy of a spot on an MLB roster
That’s what we definitively know. Based upon reports, we can also surmise he’s undermining a manager by using his influence with ownership.
That last point is important because Reyes has now gone public in saying he wants to come back. For some reason his draw to ownership is such that coming off a horrid 2017 season, the team not only brought him back, but they gave him $2 million when most teams wouldn’t even give him a minor league contract.
In all seriousness, if Reyes is back with the Mets in 2019, even on a minor league deal, it is time for everyone to reevaluate their support for this Mets franchise.
Reyes beating his wife wasn’t enough to keep him away. Reyes being a bad player wasn’t enough to keep him away. Reyes not mentoring the player he was supposed to be mentoring while playing terribly has not been enough to keep him away.
Really, the only thing that ever separated the Mets and Reyes was money because back in 2010, when it came time to pay him, the Wilpons didn’t so much as speak with Reyes.
However, now that he’s a bad, cheap, and wife beating baseball player, this organization cannot have enough of him. Really, it is past the breaking point of how ridiculous this all is. If he is back, how can anyone logically support this franchise?
Unfortunately, fandom isn’t logical, and for that reason, I know I will still be a Mets fans in 2019. That said, my enthusiasm for the team will take another significant hit much like it took a significant hit in 2016. At some point, there is going to be one hit too many, and at that point, who knows?
Really, Reyes is exactly how you lose a passionate fan base. You turn people off because you tell people you have no issue with domestic violence. You turn people off because you build a team on the cheap instead of properly investing in a winning core and have a payroll commensurate with your market size. You turn people off because despite this player dragging your franchise down, you feel some devotion to him you didn’t have back when he was a good player.
So yes, I’ll still be there in 2019 even if Reyes is. I just won’t be as invested. To that end, I really hope Reyes is worth turning away passionate fans for over 30 years for this player. Something tells me it isn’t, and worse yet, the Wilpons don’t really care.
After not being utilized by the Major League club, the Mets sent Dominic Smith back down to Triple-A where his traditional first base position was already occupied by Peter Alonso.
For the past year, Smith and Alonso had been battling it out to see who was going to be the Mets first baseman of the future. In that time period, Smith has struggled while Alonso has thrived. That has especially been the case this year with a slimmed down Smith not being able to hit for any power in a hitter friendly Pacific Coast League while Alonso has been drawing comparisons to Mark McGwire as he has leaped into Top 100 lists this summer.
While it is interesting to debate them from afar, it is more interesting to see how they stack up when they are in the same lineup on a day-in and day-out basis.
Much like he has done for most of the season, Alonso has risen to the challenge.
Before Smith was sent back down to Triple-A, Alonso was hitting .196/.323/.477 while striking out in 28.5 percent of his plate appearances in the 29 games. Since he has been in the same lineup as Smith, he is hitting .286/.333/.429 with three doubles, a homer, and 10 RBI in 10 games.
Unfortunately for Smith, he has struggled. In his 10 games back in Las Vegas, he is hitting .200/.267/.400. On the bright side, he did put together a four game hitting streak where he was 6-for-16 with two homers and four RBI. At a minimum, that once again shows us Smith does have the talent to perform at this high a level, but again, the question remains if he can do this on a long term basis.
In total, we are seeing glimpses from both Alonso and Smith as to why they should be considered the Mets first baseman of the future. The question is when or if either is going to get a chance a the Major League level.
At the moment, they are being blocked by Wilmer Flores, Jose Bautista, and Austin Jackson not just for playing time but also roster spots on the Major League roster. After that, the Mets will have Jay Bruce, who may be better suited to first, and Yoenis Cespedes, who may be limited to first base after his double heel surgery. This is in addition to Flores, who was already playing over Smith when both were on the Major League roster.
It seems like Smith will get called-up again this year, but seeing the veterans and how he was previously utilized, we shouldn’t expect him to get much of a look. With respect to Alonso, the Mets have been adamant he is not coming up this year.
That’s why, in the end, while we are seeing Smith and Alonso battling head-to-head against one another to make the case why either one of them should be considered the Met first baseman of the future, their real battle is with the Mets organization to prove why they should get the job over more established and much higher paid veterans.
Given how they are battling in Triple-A instead of the Majors, it does not seem as if they are going to get a fair enough shake to prove themselves . . . at least not this year.
There are many, many reasons to criticize the Mets. Even with the presence of smart baseball people, who have been a part of well-run organizations in their previous stops, the Mets are a mess. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out this is directly attributable to ownership.
That same ownership has decided that rather than appointing one of their existing assistant general managers to be the interim general manager, they would each role share with them presenting ideas they used to offer to Sandy Alderson directly to Jeff Wilpon. Yes, Jeff Wilpon essentially named himself the general manager.
The end result of that has led to a number of decisions which have made the Mets even more of a laughingstock then they already have been.
The Jeurys Familia trade was widely panned. Making matters worse, we subsequently discovered Will Toffey, the key prospect in the deal not only needs offseason shoulder surgery, but his dad is also friends with J.P. Riccardi. It so happens Riccardi was the pointman for the deal.
We didn’t know that initially because the Mets went into media silence. The reason for that was the team was actively ducking the media over their continued bungling and outright lying in delivering the message about what they knew and didn’t know about Yoenis Cespedes‘ heels.
Consider that over the course of a few days, John Ricco and the Mets went from saying they didn’t know Cespedes needed surgery to saying surgery was a last resort to saying he needed the surgery.
What was even better about all of this was the Mets waited for this noise to clear before calling on Ricco to speak with the media about the Familia trade, a trade which he said Riccardi ran point and that one of the key pieces was the international money which Omar Minaya could utilize well. So basically, the team sent out the one guy of the three to speak on a deal who didn’t work on getting the deal done or who will utilize the assets acquired.
Meanwhile, the Mets continual insistence Jeff McNeil was a second baseman blew up in their faces. Within a week of this proclamation, McNeil would play third in a Triple-A game, and eventually he would be called up to play third base in the majors.
After the trade deadline, the three general managers hopped on a conference call where they told everyone ownership entasked them with being creative and open to all possibilities. That resulted in them getting a poor return for Familia. Worse yet, the team was unable to move Jose Bautista, Jerry Blevins, or Devin Mesoraco despite them being 30 year old veterans on expiring deals.
Better yet, they added to the over 30 mix by signing Austin Jackson on the eve of the trade deadline.
Looking at what they did and didn’t do, there are still some up in arms that the team didn’t unload Jacob deGrom, Zack Wheeler, or even Noah Syndergaard.
Seriously?
After what we have seen from this front office in a very limited time period, you really trusted them to make major deals on these players. You really thought they were capable of getting the type of return the Rays got for Chris Archer?
Have you been remotely paying attention to anything that has happened over the past two years?
Honestly, how could you want this structure get rid of players who will have a huge market during the Winter Meetings should the Mets eventually decided to tear it all down and rebuild?
That’s just being completely delusional.
Again, the Mets need to be held to task for many things they do. They need to be constantly reminded of their failures and ineptitude.
That said, with those failures and ineptitude, how can we possibly trust them to do anything until they bring in a fresh voice into the organization who knows what he is doing?
When looking at Sandy Alderson’s tenure as the Mets General Manager, you would have to say one of the best moves he made was signing Asdrubal Cabrera in the offseason immediately after the Mets pennant.
When you look at Cabrera’s Mets career, the one thing that immediately comes to mind is how he almost single-handedly carried the Mets to the 2016 postseason.
At that time, the Mets were down Matt Harvey, Steven Matz, and Jacob deGrom in the rotation. The team had no third baseman for most of the season. Lucas Duda was essentially done for the year, and James Loney was doing a bad job offensively and defensively at first. Neil Walker would go down with a season ending back surgery. The prior year’s hero, Yoenis Cespedes, was in and out of the lineup with quad issues, and when he did play, he wasn’t the same guy he was in 2015.
After what was a largely disappointing injury plagued year, Cabrera came off the DL on August 19th, and he went on an absolute tear. From that point until the end of the season, he hit .345/.406/.635 with 11 doubles, a triple, 10 homers, and 29 RBI.
To put it in perspective just how great a run that was, Cabrera had the seventh best wRC+ over that stretch. His 179 wRC+ was better than players like Miguel Cabrera, David Ortiz, NL MVP Kris Bryant.
In that insane stretch, the Mets went from two games under .500 to finishing the year 87-75 with the top National League Wild Card. Not only did Cabrera fuel that run, but he might have also given us one of the greatest bat flips in Mets history:
From there, things haven’t been so great with the Mets. Unfortunately, it did lead to Cabrera demanding a trade when the team wanted to move him off of shortstop. With the Mets unable to move him, the team did pick up his option, and he returned.
It is a good thing he returned because Cabrera has been a bright spot in an otherwise dismal season. His 122 wRC+ is sixth best among Major League second basemen, and it is second best among players on the Mets Opening Day roster.
Whatever issues Cabrera may have caused with his demands, he is a guy who came to play each and every day. No matter what the injury or issue, he wanted in the lineup. More often that not, he contributed.
Part of the reason why is Cabrera is that rare breed of player who actually raises his game in New York. His 116 OPS+ with the Mets is better than any of his previous stops. He averaged a higher WAR with the Mets than at any other stop. It’s impressive he did this as a player towards the end of his prime as opposed to one entering his prime.
Overall, the New York Mets organization has been better for Cabrera having been a part of it. He was a player born to play in New York, and he had the opportunity to show it with a great pennant run in 2016. For that run alone, Mets fans should be thankful.
In the end, we should all wish Cabrera good luck in Philadelphia, and yes, given his play here, there Mets should consider bringing him back next year.
As a second straight Mets season has completely fallen apart, there has been discussions about whether the Mets should blow the whole thing up. Those discussions have been ramped up with Yoenis Cespedes being out for at least 10 months with his having double heel surgery.
What’s odd about that is the Mets arguably have the best starting rotation in baseball with the top 1-2 combination with Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard.
Brandon Nimmo has played like an All Star caliber player, and lately Michael Conforto has returned to his All Star form.
The Mets have two potent weapons with Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo.
There’s also good talent close to the majors with Peter Alonso, Justin Dunn, and Andres Gimenez. Of course, Jeff McNeil was just called-up.
There’s talent present which could make the Mets winners in 2020 or even 2019. However, for that to happen, the Mets will need to add some pieces.
Fortunately for the Mets, this could go down as one of the most consequential free agent classes in Major League history. Teams will be lining up to throw money to Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Craig Kimbrel, Clayton Kershaw, and A.J. Pollock.
Given all that has happened, the Mets will have the money to be competitors on the free agent market. In fact, they are going to be quite flush with cash.
Expiring Contracts
Even if the Mets do not trade anyone who is due money past this season, the Mets will have money freed up because there are a number of contracts expiring after this season:
- AJ Ramos – $9.225 million
- Asdrubal Cabrera – $8.25 million
- Jerry Blevins – $7 million
- Devin Mesoraco* – $5.625 million
- Jose Reyes – $2 million
With respect to Mesoraco, there was an undisclosed amount of cash provided by the Reds when they obtained Harvey in exchange for Mesoraco. While Mesoraco is due $13.12 million this year, it was Harvey’s $5.625 million salary that was part of the Opening Day roster. Therefore, for the sake of calcualting how much money will be available, Harvey’s salary is used as the placeholder.
With the Harvey/Mesoraco caveat, the Mets will have $32.1 million coming off the books just from contracts currently on the books expiring after the season.
Subtotal $32.1 million
Familia Trade
With the Mets trading Jeurys Familia, the team not only was able to acquire two prospects in Bobby Wahl and William Toffey, both of whom will be earning de minimis minor league salaries, but the team was also able to remove Familia’s $7.925 million from the books with the team getting some cash savings this season with the Athletics taking on the remainder of Familia’s 2018 salary.
Subtotal $40.025
Insurance Money
David Wright has not played a Major League game since May 27, 2016. With each passing day and each additional set-back, it becomes increasingly unlikely we will ever see Wright play in another game for the Mets. Now when it comes to Wright, there are two factors at play which would give the team an avenue to spend more money this offseason.
First and foremost, Wright’s salary goes from $20 million in 2018 to $15 million in 2019. Right off the bat, that gives the Mets an additional $5 million to spend this offseason.
Additionally, Wright’s contract is fully insured with insurance paying 75% of Wright’s salary. As a result, the Mets will have an additional $11.25 million available to spend due to Wright’s inability to play.
But Wright is not the only injured player insured. In addition to Wright, Yoenis Cespedes‘ contract is also insured. That’s important in light of the announcement Cespedes will have double heel surgery and will be out at least 10 months. For what it’s worth, the Mets suggested he may be out longer than that.
Remember, Cespedes is out from 10 months from whenever he has the surgery. Not from the date of the press conference. With that in mind and for the sake of being conservative in the estimates, lets assume Cespedes is out for half the season.
With the Mets saying there is insurance that picks up over 50% of the salary owed to Cespedes, that means, the Mets will be able to recoup roughly 50% of a half’s seasons salary. With Cespedes due $29 million next year, insurance will pay at least $7.25 million. With each passing day that number will grow.
When combining the monies covered by insurance for Wright and Cespedes, the team will have an additional $18.5 million available to spend. When you include the $5 million drop in Wright’s salary, that number is $23.5 million.
Subtotal $63.525
Other Factors
As noted by Anthony DiComo of MLB.com, ownership says it considers Wright’s contract part of the payroll, and the team does not reinvest the money saved into baseball operations. Putting aside what that means in terms of money available for a second, what this does mean is the team has saved and socked away $15 million of the $20 million due and owing to Wright this season.
The same likely applies to whatever the team can and will recover from insurance from Cespedes’ $29 million contract this season.
Additionally, the team saw savings of roughly $3 million for trading Familia, and they will likely see the same savings when other players are traded for the roster. Presumably, since that money is not being invested into baseball operations this season that would make that money available for 2019 and beyond.
For a moment, we can presume for a moment the $3 million saved on Familia can offset the $3 million pay increase due to Jay Bruce next season. Of course, the pay raises due in arbitration and the like will very easily be offset by the money saved on the Wright and Cespedes insurance policies. Really, there should be money to spare.
What This All Means
Looking at the Mets as currently constituted, they have tw0-third of their outfield set with Conforto and Nimmo. On the infield, they have Todd Frazier and Amed Rosario. They will also have Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, and Jeff McNeil, who could become part of a time sharing at either first or second. If he can get healthy, the team could have Bruce at first or right depending on the development of Alonso, or yes, even Dominic Smith.
All told, this means the Mets have the payroll room and the spots on the roster to add at least one player of significance. Perhaps even two.
With that in mind, with the Mets having $63.525 million to spend this offseason, there is no excuse why this team shouldn’t aggressively pursue Machado and Harper. They should come away with one of them plus an additional piece to help take them over the top like a Kimbrel, Pollock, or yes, even a Daniel Murphy (first base only).
If the Mets do that, this is a potential World Series contender, especially with this starting pitching. If the team goes out and does this, the fans will pack Citi Field to the gills.
The time for excuses is over. It’s time to act like a big market club with a chance to win a World Series.
Everywhere you look, people have panned the Mets return for Jeurys Familia. The Mets poor return was again highlighted yesterday when the Baltimore Orioles got a much better return for Zach Britton than the return the Mets had received.
Some of that analysis was well-grounded. For example, Keith Law of ESPN said, “although his command isn’t close to back yet, so his market value wasn’t going to be great, and in that context the O’s did well to acquire some pitching depth in the form of three second- or third-tier prospects from a very deep Yankees system.”
As we recall, Keith Law’s analysis of the Famila trade was that it was embarrassing for the Mets organization and all of Major League Baseball. He went so far as to call for the Commissioner’s office to step in and force the Wilpons to sell the team.
Again, this analysis was grounded on well based knowledge of the prospects and the ensuing analysis of the returns. Agree or disagree with any of it, it’s a learned critique. Then, we see Jon Heyman’s critique of the trades:
not to pick on anyone when they're down, but the orioles did a lot better for Britton than the mets did for Familia. Tate is the yanks' No. 6 prospect (plus the other 2 guys going to Baltimore are solid), mets got Oakland's No. 17 prospect and a bit more.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) July 25, 2018
If you read that critically, you will understand it tells you absolutely nothing about the quality of the return each selling team received for selling off their respective closers.
Remember, no two farm systems are alike, and they have different strengths and weaknesses. Moreover, some systems are just flat out stronger than others. In that tweet, Heyman gave us no context for why the Yankees No. 6 prospect is better than the Athletics No. 17 prospect.
It’s also important to note, he didn’t tell us who’s ranking. That’s also important because some lists are certainly credible than others.
Taking Heyman on face value that those prospect rankings were correct and up-to-date, it still doesn’t tell us if Dillon Tate or William Toffey was the better prospect.
With respect to Tate, he’s a 24 year old pitcher in Double-A. In his 15 starts, he is 5-2 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, and an 8.2 K/9. For the sake of comparison, 23 year old Nabil Crismatt, an undrafted free agent, made 16 starts in the same league this year. He was 8-5 with a 3.58 ERA, 1.237 WHIP, and a 9.1 K/9 before being promoted to Triple-A.
No, it’s not a perfect comparison, but it should be worth nothing the 2015 fourth overall pick cannot out-pitch an undrafted free agent. Think about that for a second, the Yankees seventh best prospect isn’t out-pitching an undrafted free agent.
It should also be noted many have panned the Mets farm system as being weak and towards the lower third in the majors. MLB Pipeline does not rank Crismatt among the Mets Top 30 prospects. Similarly, neither Baseball America nor Baseball Prospectus ranks Crismatt among the Mets top prospects.
Again, putting your personal like of either return aside, how can you accurately judge the trade when the Yankees purported seventh best prospect isn’t performing any better than an undrafted free agent who can’t even crack the Mets top prospect lists?
Also, for the sake of comparison, Baseball America has Jorge Mateo ranked as the Athletics seventh best prospect. Digging deeper, Mateo is ranked as a Top 100 prospect in all of baseball.
Fangraphs ranks him 61. Baseball Prosectus ranked him 79th. MLB Pipeline ranked him 71st.
None of those outlets have Tate in their Top 100 this year.
With that in mind, how can we possibly point out the Yankees seventh best prospect is a much better return than the Athletics 17th best prospect? The Athletics seventh best prospect is a Top 100 prospect while the Yankees seventh best propsect can’t out-pitch an undrafted minor league free agent.
In the end, we can say the Orioles got a better return for Britton than the Mets did for Familia. That is fair and reasonable. However, when drawing that conclusion, we should not compare each player’s ranking among that organization’s top prospects. As shown, those rankings tell us absolutely nothing about who is the better prospect or what was the better return.
When looking at the 2015 Mets, none of it was possible, none of it, without Jeurys Familia.
After an impressive rookie campaign, Familia was pressed into closer duty because Jenrry Mejia got hurt in his first appearance of the season (he’d get suspended later). Familia was great in the role at a time the Mets desperately needed it.
With injuries to players like David Wright, Travis d’Arnaud, and Michael Cuddyer injured or on the DL, the Mets offense was horrendous. Complicating matters was the lack of a bridge to Familia.
This led to Familia going to the whip more than any other closer. He pitched more innings and finished more games more than any other closer. It proved to be good practice for the postseason.
In that epic five game series, Familia cane up huge.
He went 1.1 innings to preserve the Jacob deGrom Game One gem. He would join deGrom and Daniel Murphy as a Game 5 hero by sending the Mets to the NLCS with a six out save.
He once again helped the Mets set the tone in Game One of the NLCS. He took over for Matt Harvey in the eighth, and he would pitch the final 1.1 innings to earn the save.
Familia would not just save three of the four games of the Mets sweep of the Cubs, he would save five of the Mets seven postseason victories leading up to the World Series.
In doing so, Familia had a 0.00 ERA, 0.414 WHIP, and batters were hitting just .065/.121/.065 against him.
Like the regular season, the Mets handed him zero margin of error, and he was dominant carrying the Mets to the precipice of the promised land.
Unfortunately, Alex Gordon guessed right, Daniel Murphy had one go under his glove, and Lucas Duda threw one away.
Coupled with Conor Gillaspie in next year’s National League Wild Card Game, a narrative was born. It was a narrative not befitting a closer with a 2.30 ERA with a and a 0.638 WHIP.
Lost in all of that is just how dominant Familia was as a Met.
In 2015-2016, no closer pitched more than Familia. He was the leader in appearances, innings, games finished, and saves. Stretching back to 2014, there was only one other reliever with more innings pitched than him.
Looking at it, it’s flat out bizarre Familia’s name never really was mentioned as among the elite closers in the game. Fact is, Familia not only belonged in that group, but considering his workload and ability to navigate through that margin of error, you could make an argument he was the best closer in the game.
In his time with the Mets, he set the single season saves record. Despite closing for fewer seasons than anyone else in the top 5, Familia is third all-time in Mets history in saves.
Even with Familia being unfairly blamed for the Mets coming up short in 2015 and 2016, the Mets come nowhere near either postseason without Familia. Certainly, 2015, seemingly the one nice thing Mets fans seemed to have since Citi Field opened, isn’t even a figment in anyone’s imagination without Familia.
Over the past couple of years, we saw cracks in Familia from workload and hone issues. His absence was felt in a bullpen that has largely been a disaster in his absence.
Looking back at it, Familia was a great Met who helped deliver some of the best moments in Mets history in nearly three decades. His dominance in the back end of the pen will be missed.
Overall, thank you to Familia for the run and best of luck to you in Oakland.
With the New York Mets sending Dominic Smith down in a series of transactions designed to make room on the Major League roster for both Yoenis Cespedes and Jason Vargas to return from the disabled list, the Mets will have both Smith and Peter Alonso on the same roster.
This could not have happened at a worse time for either player.
When Smith was called up to the majors, he had not exactly earned his way onto the roster hitting just .260/.343/.370 in 56 games. Unfortunately, things did not improve for him when he was called up to the majors. He would play sparingly, and when he did play he didn’t hit. Overall, he has a -1.1 WAR while hitting .183/.216/.324.
With Smith struggling and Alonso dominating in Double-A, it seemed as if Alonso had easily surpassed Smith as the Mets first baseman of the future. With every homer, it seemed like that future was going to happen at some point this season.
Things changed for Alonso when he was called-up to Triple-A. In 27 games, he is hitting .178/.306/.426 with a 30.1 percent strikeout rate. One thing that has been encouraging is Alonso has not regressed in terms of his newfound plate discipline. Despite his struggles, he has maintained a solid 12.4 percent walk rate.
With both players struggling, Tony DeFrancesco not only has to find a way to get both players back on track, but he also has to find a way to find playing time for both players.
Seemingly, the playing time is the easier of the two issues. With Smith getting up to speed in left field, and the Mets having no prospect of note in the outfield, it would at least seem he could play there everyday. Another consideration is Las Vegas will have the DH available to permit the team to shift both prospects between first base and DH.
The dilemma there is Smith is by far the better defensive first baseman of the two. From that standpoint, Smith should be the everyday first baseman with Alonso at DH.
However, this is the minor leagues where organizations put an emphasis on player development over winning. To that end, Alonso needs the reps at first base much more than Smith does.
To that end, it should come as no surprise John Ricco says Alonso will get most of the reps at first with Smith mostly playing the outfield.
This is really where DeFrancesco is going to have to earn his money. Somehow, some way, he has to help both players improve, have them not just retain but improve their value, and he is going to have to make each player feel as if the organization is invested in them. That’s much easier said than done, especially when the organization is having Smith play out of position to accommodate Alonso.
Further complicating everything is Cespedes interest in possibly making a position change to first base in order to help keep his legs healthy to stay in the lineup. Given his being owed $58 million over the next two seasons, Jay Bruce being owed $28 million over the next two seasons, and the emergence of Brandon Nimmo was an All Star caliber player, it’s very possible the Mets give Cespedes every opportunity to become the Mets first baseman next year.
With that being the case, Smith and Alonso are not only in a position where they have to distinguish themselves from one another, they are also going to have to distinguish themselves to the point where the club is willing to give these two talented young players a job at first base over more established and far better paid players.
Believe it or not, even with their recent struggles both Smith and Alonso possess the talent to force the issue with the Mets organization. If we get to the point where Smith and Alonso are forcing the issue, the Mets will be in a very good position.
With his agent softly throwing down the gauntlet yesterday, it seems the Mets are in a position where they are very soon going to have to make a public decision as to whether they are going to give Jacob deGrom the contract extension he wants or trade him to a contender.
Yes, there are other options including the team deciding to let the arbitration years play out before letting him hit free agency after the 2020 season, but given where this team is now and deGrom headed towards the Cy Young, it does not seem like this is the prudent course of action.
With that in mind, the question before the Mets is whether the team should give deGrom that contract extension he wants or if it is time to trade him and blow the whole thing up?
From a pure PR perspective, extending deGrom would be a boon for the Mets organization who could use some good publicity right about now. It also wouldn’t hurt for them to change some of the existing narratives. Much like when the team gave David Wright a contract extension back in 2012.
Also looking at it in terms of a non-baseball decision making thought process, it does help having the ability to market deGrom and get a bump in attendance every fifth day. It’s something the Mets did in 2012 with R.A. Dickey and 2013 with Matt Harvey. Really, you can criticize the Mets for a lot, but they do know how to promote their starting pitchers and get fans to the ballpark when their aces take the mound.
But this is more than PR and a slight bump in the gates. Ultimately, this is about investing in a now 30 year old pitcher. Here and now, the team is in a position to decide whether this is the guy they want to invest in and make a career Met. They have to decide if he’s part of the equation for the Mets next World Series contending team.
There’s a risk there. For every Max Scherzer whose career takes off at this point, you have a collection of pitchers like Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia, who around this age, go from ace to very expensive fifth starter. Point being is if you make this move, you have to be correct about both the pitcher and your window.
Ultimately, that’s how the Mets need to make this decision.
If this is an organization who is truly willing to invest in this team to make this a World Series contender in 2019 or 2020, then give deGrom that extension now.
And the opportunity is there. The upcoming free agent class is loaded with players like Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, A.J. Pollock, Craig Kimbrel, and Andrew Miller.
In the next 1-3 years, the Mets could have prospects like Peter Alonso, Justin Dunn, and Andres Gimenez joining a young core of position players which include Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, and Amed Rosario.
When you look forward two years, the pitching rotation should still have Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Having deGrom not only lead that rotation, but also serve as a mentor to young pitchers like Dunn or even David Peterson and Anthony Kay could prove to be a boon.
Really, even with the Mets being 16 games under .500, the team is closer to contention than many believe. All it is going to take is an investment in this roster from ownership. As we know, that is easier said than done.
Taking that into consideration, Mets ownership really needs to ask itself if they’re willing to repeat 2005 and go all-in on players like Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez to quickly turn things around, or are they willing to repeat 2009 – 2014? When the Mets decide which one of those two routes they are going to pursue, they can then make their decision on extending deGrom.
In the end, deGrom is the first decision in an overall plan. If you extend him, you go on a shopping spree in the offseason. If you trade him, you tear this completely down and do a proper rebuild. Really, there is no realistic inbetween for a team intent on winning another World Series within the next decade.