Musings
Last night, we once again saw Mickey Callaway‘s go to Robert Gsellman, who is arguably the team’s fifth best reliever with the game on the line in the eighth inning. Callaway did this because he had little other choice.
Much like what Brian Cashman once did with Joe Torre and Joba Chamberlain, Brodie Van Wagenen has implemented his own version of the Joba Rules. A Diaz Dictate if you will.
As Brodie Van Wagenen and Callaway would explain, Edwin Diaz is only to be used for three outs in the same inning, and he is to be used for save situations only.
This means when the game is on the line with one or two outs in the seventh, the Mets must pitch anyone other than Diaz. It does not matter if the team had a short start from someone like Jason Vargas and has to throw Chris Flexen the following day in place of an injured Jacob deGrom.
This means the Mets will have to send in lesser relievers against the Phillies, a team they will fight season long for the division, or the Cardinals, a team the Mets will potentially be competing against for a Wild Card spot.
This means if there is a tie game on the road, Diaz doesn’t enter the game. Like we saw in Philadelphia, Diaz stays in the bullpen like Buck Showalter once had Zack Britton infamously stay in the bullpen in a tie game waiting for a save opportunity which may never arise.
Right now, there’s no gray area. There’s no assessing the team’s and bullpen’s needs day-to-day. Instead, the Mets are putting a premium on limiting Diaz’s usage.
Ultimately, like with the Joba Rules, it means the General Manager does not trust the manager with a young reliever. It means despite all the Mets gave up to acquire him, the Mets are not going to allow Diaz to be the game changing closer they purported him to be. It means a supposed all-in team is willing to lose games to save a closer for a postseason run which may never materialize.
Right now, the Mets have the worst defense in the National League, and they have the worst left side of the infield defense. Amed Rosario has been the worst shortstop in the National League, and J.D. Davis has been the worst infielder in all of baseball.
Now, it is fair to point out these are small sample sizes. However, historically, both of these players have been poor defenders. Considering this is their respective histories, the Mets are in desperate need for a defensive upgrade at third. Fortunately, they already have a very good defensive infielder on their 40 man roster. It’s just a matter of when he will be available to play.
During Spring Training, Todd Frazier suffered an injury. As a result, he opened the season on the Injured List. For a player who had never been on the Injured List over the first seven years of his career, Frazier has now landed there three times over the past year plus.
So far, it has been slow going for Frazier. Over 10 rehab games for St. Lucie, Frazier has struggled hitting .200/.282/.200. However, yesterday, he finally broke out. He was 1-for-2 with a run, home run, three RBI, and two walks.
That could be a sign he’s finally ready and not a moment too soon.
The Mets have lost four of their last five games with their defense being a culprit. Davis plays way too deep, he has difficulty getting in front of balls, and his throws have been very poor. Really, his defense has been hurting the team.
Defense is one thing Frazier does really well. Since 2017, his 12 DRS is the fourth best among third baseman. His UZR is fifth best. Put another way, the Mets are getting the chance to replace the worst third baseman with one of the best.
It’s a reason why McNeil should continue playing left. Another reason is the Mets organization outfield depth is poor. Moreover, Keon Broxton and Juan Lagares not hitting, and Brandon Nimmo dealing with neck issues.
With McNeil in left, Frazier can play third until Jed Lowrie returns (whenever that will be) or Frazier establishes he shouldn’t be playing everyday. At a minimum, the Mets defense will be vastly improved. Best case, he goes on and has a Ray Knight type of season.
Last night, the game hung in the balance with two outs in the bottom of the eighth inning. Even after Jeff McNeil had bailed out Jeurys Familia with a fine play to start a 5-4-3 double play, Familia walked the subsequent two batters to load the bases. With the heart of the Phillies lineup coming up, Mickey Callaway needed to get Familia out of the game.
This past offseason, the Mets made a blockbuster deal with the Mariners to acquire Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. In the deal, the Mets paid a hefty price including not just Justin Dunn, but also Jarred Kelenic. At the introductory press conference for the two new Mets stars, Jeff Wilpon admitted the Mets parted with Kelenic partially to make sure Diaz did not go to the Phillies.
This was the precise moment the Mets needed Diaz. They needed a pitcher whom they touted as the best reliever in baseball to do what the best reliever in baseball does. He needed to go out there and strike out Jean Segura and ensure the Mets took the lead into the ninth. That’s not what happened.
Instead, Callaway went to Robert Gsellman, who is arguably the team’s fifth best reliever. In terms of pinch hitting, this is equivalent to Callaway sending up Juan Lagares to face a tough right-handed reliever with bases loaded and two outs in the eighth just so he could save Dominic Smith for a pinch hitting opportunity in the ninth inning.
In terms of pinch hitting, you are not sending one of your worst options at the plate with the game on the line, but for some reason, Callaway opted to send one of his worst relievers out there with the game on the line.
After the game, Callaway would rightfully point out Gsellman has a job to do, and he needs to get out of that jam. However, this is a bit misleading. While it is Gsellman’s job to get out of that jam, it is also incumbent on the manager to put the right people in the right situations. Using the earlier example, if Lagares strikes out while Smith is on the bench people would be far less understanding.
Now, we did learn after the game the Mets do not want Diaz pitching more than three outs during the regular season. Putting aside whey the team would sacrifice two former first round picks for a one inning reliever, we still have to question the strategy.
Already, there have been two instances where Diaz came on to get just one out. So clearly, the Mets are not going to shy away from Diaz entering the game to get a huge out. What is bizarre is the Mets were not trusting their best reliever to go get that out.
If Gsellman allows a hit to Segura or Harper, it’s game over. Diaz never sees the game, and the Mets lose. Why is this a more acceptable result than having Diaz get one out? That was potentially the game right there, and the Mets didn’t have the guy they gave up so much to acquire go get that out.
If the Mets didn’t want Diaz going four outs, then have hit get that out. Callaway then had the option to give the ball to Gsellman or Justin Wilson for the ninth. Both relievers have closed games in their careers. We have also seen Callaway give the ball to Jacob Rhame for a save.
Overall, Callaway does not have to manage to the save statistic, he has to manage to the game situation. When he was managing to the statistic, the Mets almost blew a game against the Phillies. The Mets almost didn’t get a chance to use the pitcher they were so afraid the Phillies were going to get. Ultimately, that is completely unacceptable.
At this point, it’s clear Jason Vargas isn’t just pitching with a fork in him; he’s got the whole utensil drawer there. As such, it’s time to look for someone to replace him in the rotation. While Mets fans have been imploring the team to add Dallas Keuchel, it seems like the Mets would not be willing to add that much payroll.
Fortunately, the Mets still have some very interesting internal options:
Seth Lugo – definitively the Mets fifth best starter, but he arguably has more value in the bullpen.
Robert Gsellman – hasn’t had the success in the bullpen everyone imagined he be and may just be better suited to the rotation
Corey Oswalt – it’s hard to get a read on him with how the Mets have jerked him around, but he’s still had flashes of viability
Chris Flexen – he has a surgically repaired knee and is in terrific shape giving hope he can finally put that fastball/curve combo to good use.
Anthony Kay – Mets haven’t been shy rushing starters from Double-A to the majors, and Kay has excellent spin rates on his fastball and curve.
David Peterson – the Mets 2017 first round pick is off to a good start, which is more than you can say for Vargas.
Hector Santiago – he was an All-Star in 2015, and based on what we’ve seen having previously being an All-Star is all you need to get a rotation spot.
Drew Gagnon – in his one start last year, he at least managed to pitch into the fifth, which is much better than what we’ve seen this year.
P.J. Conlon – last year, Conlon showed he shouldn’t be trusted for more than 2-3 innings. It’d be nice to get a fifth starter who could provide that much length.
Walker Lockett – he’s in Extended Spring Training with an injury, and he had a 9.60 ERA in the majors last year, so all told, he’s an upgrade.
Mickey Jannis – there’s a better chance he turns into the next R.A. Dickey than Vargas has another quality start
Paul Sewald – Mets have never been worried about pushing Sewald too far, so certainly, you could see them randomly asking five from him, and those five would likely be better than any five Vargas throws this year.
Nelson Figueroa – if he was good enough for the Mets to lose Darren O’Day, he’s certainly good enough to pitch in Vargas’ stead.
Mickey Callaway – had a 6.27 career ERA and last pitched in the majors 15 years ago, which means his arm is probably fresh enough to hit the mid 80s.
Luis Guillorme – it’s not like they’re using him as the team’s backup middle infielder, and we know he’d at least be able to field his position well, which unlike Vargas, would be at least one thing Guillorme could do well as a pitcher.
Devin Mesoraco – since people want to claim he was the reason Jacob deGrom won a Cy Young, maybe he could take that expert knowledge and turn it into pitching effectively instead of sulking at home.
J.D. Davis – he has a career 3.38 ERA in limited appearances, which make sense considering he hits and fields his position like a pitcher.
Dominic Smith – Smith pitched well in high school, which is a higher level than Vargas can get out right now.
Pete Alonso – his being on the Opening Day roster was supposed to be the difference between the Mets making the postseason and not. With Vargas being terrible every fifth day, he’s apparently going to need to do more than hit.
And therein lies the problem. The Mets sold their fans they desperately needed 12 games from Alonso while simultaneously punting 32 starts from the fifth spot in the rotation. That’s an even bigger joke than anything said in this post.
Yesterday, Dominic Smith received his second start of the season, and much like the rest of the season, he hit. In five plate appearances, he was 2-for-4 with a run and a walk.
With that performance, Smith is now hitting .438/.526/.500. Seeing those results, his age, and his previously being considered among the Top 100 prospects in the game, you’d believe the Mets would be doing everything they could do to get him into the lineup.
The problem is Smith plays first base, a position now occupied by Pete Alonso and with the way Alonso is playing, there’s no way you’re having him sit to create more playing time for anyone else on this roster.
Now, it should be noted Smith played left field last year. He wasn’t not good there at all. In 90.0 MLB innings, he had a -5 DRS and a -3.1 UZR. Part of the reason why was his poor speed.
Baseball Savant had Smith’s sprint speed at 26.3 ft/second. Coincidentally, that was the same foot speed as Rhys Hoskins, another first baseman poorly masquerading as a left fielder. With respect to Hoskins, the Phillies moving Carlos Santana was partially motivated by their wanting to get Hoskins out of left.
Absent any improvements, you’d be hard pressed to find a reason why Smith would post better numbers than Hoskins -24 DRS and -11.3 UZR in left. This may have been one of the reasons why the Mets abandoned the experiment heading into this season. The question now is whether the Mets should revisit this decision.
Seeing Smith this year, he’s been in better shape, and he’s been quicker than in years past. Part of that is his getting better sleep with his sleep apnea mask. Between his better conditioning, his having experience in left, and with his now hitting, the Mets have plenty of reasons to believe Smith could now succeed in left.
In fact, as Matt Ehalt of Yahoo reports, both Smith and his agent have approached the Mets about playing left field. The Mets outright rejected the idea. The end result is Smith has no real avenue to play.
While you understand why the Mets wouldn’t want to revisit the idea, it may be short-sighted. The team is already poor defensively in left with Jeff McNeil, and they have been poor defensively at third when J.D. Davis plays there. If you put McNeil at third, where he is better suited, and Smith in left, the Mets are still weak in left, but overall, they’re better defensively.
They would also be better offensively, especially with the way Smith is hitting.
Even if the Mets don’t want Smith in left everyday, there’s value in just getting him on the field more frequently. That value is an even better offense than what we have already seen. It’s also more versatility for a manager who seems intent on setting the major league record for double switches.
Mostly, this is about finding a way to maximize the talent on the Mets roster. Smith in left field could help them accomplish that.
As we are now well aware, the Mets bucked conventional wisdom by putting Pete Alonso on the Opening Day roster. The decision was apparently driven by the belief every game counts, and the Mets were not willing to miss out on October to gain an extra year of control over Alonso. Seeing what happened in 2007 and 2008, you could understand the decision.
However, given how this was a departure from conventional wisdom, this is a decision which should be scrutinized. Really, the only way to do that is to measure Alonso’s performance over the subject time frame:
Game 1
Score: Mets 2 – Nationals 0
Line: 1-4, 2 K
Impact: Alonso had a key two out single to continue an eighth inning rally which provided the Mets with an insurance run.
Quick Synopsis: Like some predicted, Alonso struggled against Max Scherzer and his slider, but then again, who doesn’t. His single moved Dominic Smith to second. Smith started the rally with a walk against Scherzer, and he stayed in the game for defense.
Game 2
Score: Mets 11 – Nationals 8
Line: 3-4, R, 2 2B, 2 RBI, BB, K
Impact: Alonso got things started with a single in the first setting up a three run inning. He helped expand the lead with an RBI double in the second. When the game had tightened, Alonso gave the Mets some breathing room with an RBI double making it 8-4.
Quick Synopsis: Alonso did not look remotely phased by Stephen Strasburg, and he would say after the game his facing Strasburg in Spring Training helped him for the game. Certainly, his being in the lineup was a difference maker in this game.
Game 3
Score: Nationals 6 – Mets 5
Line: 2-4, 2B, RBI, BB
Impact: Alonso was the one bat in the lineup who was working, and he would play a part in one of the two runs the Mets scored before their bats woke up in the eighth (he did not come up to bat). He would ground out leading off the ninth.
Quick Synopsis: Alonso was undaunted by Patrick Corbin reaching base all three times he faced him. With the game tied in the ninth, he would ground out against Sean Doolittle.
Game 4
Score: Mets 7 – Marlins 3
Line: 1-5, R, HR, 3 RBI, 2 K
Impact: Alonso struggled for most of the game, but he did put the game away with a massive three run homer capping off a four run top of the ninth.
Quick Synopsis: Alonso did not fare well against Marlins starter Caleb Smith striking out two and flying out in his other at-bat. To put it into perspective, the Mets as a team only recorded four hits and struck out eight times against Smith in his five innings of work.
Game 5
Score: Mets 6 – Marlins 5
Line: 0-1, K
Impact: Alonso made his first pinch hitting appearance with runners on second and third with two outs. He struck out against Marlins reliever Wei-Yin Chen on three pitches.
Quick Synopsis: With the Marlins starting Jose Urena, and Smith getting off to a terrific start as a pinch hitter/defensive replacement, the Mets opted to give him the start. Smith was 2-5 with run, RBI, and strikeout.
Game 6
Score: Mets 6 – Marlins 4
Line: 2-4, R, RBI, K
Impact: With Jacob deGrom starting, Alonso effectively put the game out of reach with an RBI double in the third which made the game 3-0 Mets at the time. He was also in the midst of a seventh inning rally with a single and eventually scoring what proved to be a much needed insurance run.
Quick Synopsis: After being 1-6 with three strikeouts to start the series, Alonso rebounded having a good game against Trevor Richards and the Marlins bullpen.
Game 7
Score: Nationals 4 – Mets 0
Line: 0-4, 2 K
Impact: Alonso only came up to the plate with a runner on base in the eighth. At the time, it was 2-0 Nationals, and it would stay that way as he would strike out against Nationals reliever Matt Grace.
Quick Synopsis: Like the rest of his teammates, Alonso struggled after the team flew out late from Miami and had to play a day game. While he had his first hitless start, he did reach base in the first after Strasburg made an error.
Game 8
Score: Mets 6 – Nationals 5
Line: 2-4, R, 2B, HR, RBI, 2 K
Impact: Alonso sparked the game winning rally hitting a homer to lead off the eighth inning.
Quick Synopsis: The Mets were staring down losing two in a row to start their first home stand of the season before Alonso sparked a rally. His homer was the springboard for a Mets offense which began hitting a series of homers in the ensuing games.
Game 9
Score: Nationals 12 – Mets 9
Line: 2-4, 2 R, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, BB, K
Impact: Alonso doubled and homered for the second straight game. His homer in the seventh helped charge a Mets offense trying to overcome an 11 run deficit, and his ninth inning walk set up another rally which would fall short.
Quick Synopsis: After having been dominated by Scherzer over his first few career plate appearances against him, including a double play and strikeout in this game, Alonso finally broke through with a double against Scherzer in the sixth.
Game 10
Score: Twins 14 – Mets 8
Line: 2-5, 2 R, 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 K
Impact: After failing to reach base in his first three at-bats, Alonso homered in the seventh to pull the Mets to within three. He’d then homer again in the ninth, but that would only pull the Mets to within eight. That is partially because his eighth inning error led to the Twins scoring three unearned runs against Robert Gsellman.
Quick Synopsis: Not too much emphasis should be placed on that error because Gsellman was bad otherwise, and balls were flying out of Citi Field. If there is anywhere to criticize him, it is his inability to deliver in an RBI opportunity in the fifth against a weakening Kyle Gibson, but that is probably going too far considering how well he has been playing.
Game 11
Score: Mets 9 – Twins 6
Line: 0-2, R, RBI, 2 BB
Impact: This would prove to be Alonso’s first hitless game in his professional career, but he did contribute by being one of the several Mets who walked in the six run fifth inning.
Quick Synopsis: For seemingly the first time all year, Alonso wasn’t one of the driving forces of the Mets offense, and yet despite that he still contributed to the win.
Game 12
Score: Mets 6 – Braves 3
Line: 2-4, R, HR, 2 RBI, BB, 2 K
Impact: On a night where it seemed Steven Matz and Amed Rosario were going to be the story, everyone was talking about Alonso and the monster home run he hit providing the Mets with additional insurance runs in their 6-1 win.
Quick Synopsis: Like he has been more much of the season, Alonso struggled against the starter before feasting on the poor relief pitching thrown his way.
Through his first 12 games, Alonso is hitting .378/.452/1.037 with six doubles, six homers, and 17 RBI. With Alonso hitting second in the lineup, the Mets are 8-4, which is not only good enough for sole possession of an already tight National League East, but it is also good enough for the best record in the National League.
Clearly, Alonso was good enough to make an impact this early in the season, and so far, he has been a real difference maker. We can dicker over his level of impact, but he has played a role in all eight Mets wins this season. Also, while Smith has gotten off to a good start himself, it is not fair to either player to say the Mets would be better, worse, or the same.
Whether this is the right decision is still up for debate.
The main reason why it is still up for debate is the Mets theory behind putting Alonso on the Opening Day roster was they were going to carry their 25 best players, and they were selling their fans that every game counts. Right now, Jason Vargas is the fifth starter with little to no real depth behind him. If every game counts, the Mets need an answer for why they’re over-focusing on Alonso’s 12 games while punting on at least 30 games from your rotation.
As for Alonso, he’s been great, but there are warning signs. As noted by Mark Simon of Sports Info Solutions, Alonso is hitting just .233 with no homers and 14 strikeouts in 30 at-bats against starting pitching. There are more troubling signs like his striking out in 30.4% of his plate appearances, and even with how hard he is hitting the baseball, his .455 BABIP is going to eventually regress to the mean. Even if you still believe the talk was a bit overblown, we have also seen talk of his struggles against the slider were real.
On defense, he’s getting all the balls thrown to first, but we are seeing some cracks in his game. He’s already botched two groundballs. On one, it helped lead to a tough inning for his pitcher. On the other, he was bailed out by Robinson Cano and Noah Syndergaard.
Of course, the negative is not the full story. Simon also notes Alonso is killing relievers hitting .643 off of them with six homers. He’s also had the knack for the big moment going 9-14 with all six of his homers happening in the seventh inning or later.
If you look through all that has happened, you can see Alonso has largely been what scouts have said of him. He’s struggled against better pitching, and he has feasted on weaker pitching. He’s going to hit the ball hard, have good plate discipline, but he’s also going to strike out at a high clip. Defensively, he’s a liability who is not going to kill you because he can handle throws well.
What is unknowable at this point is whether some time in Syracuse would have benefited him in the long run or if he was better seeing Major League pitching and working with Chili Davis. Based upon his start, it’s very fair to say the latter is the much more stronger argument.
Overall, Alonso and the Mets have passed the first test. Alonso has been the best player on this team, Jacob deGrom included, and he has been a driving force in the Mets having the best record in the National League. From this 12 game snapshot, which is very relevant, the Mets ABSOLUTELY did the right thing.
However, going forward, the jury is still out. Ultimately, we will know if the Mets did the right thing if they back this up. They first have to back it up by addressing at least one of the rotation and bullpen. To that point, it must be noted Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel are still available. Also, since the Mets have willfully done away with a year of control over Alonso, they must back it up by doing the right thing when the time comes. Should that happen, it would be very difficult to argue against their decision.
Since Jacob deGrom burst onto the scene in 2014, he has emerged as easily one of the five best pitchers in Mets history, and he is arguably third behind just Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden (although Jerry Koosman would like a word here). Going through his career, there are a number of signature performances from deGrom, but as we sort through them all, there are two games which should stand as his signature performances.
The first is Game 1 of the 2015 NLDS. In that game, deGrom out-pitched Clayton Kershaw. In his seven shutout innings, he allowed just one walk and five hits while striking out 13 batters. It was as dominant a postseason performance any Mets pitcher has ever had.
That game set the Mets on a path which had them winning the pennant that year. Of course, they do not win the pennant if deGrom does not survive and get the Mets in position to win Game 5 of that series.
It seemed deGrom was in trouble all six of the innings he pitched that night. What’s insane to think about is deGrom did not have a 1-2-3 inning that game until the sixth. Worse yet, in each of the first five innings, the Dodgers had a runner in scoring position with less than two outs.
Despite all of that, deGrom somehow managed to keep the game tied going into the seventh inning setting the stage for Daniel Murphy‘s homer, Noah Syndergaard coming out of the bullpen throwing 100 MPH, and Jeurys Familia with the six out save.
While deGrom had an all-time Cy Young winning season last year, arguably, the 2015 NLDS was deGrom at his best. One night he went out there, and he just dominated the Dodgers. The next, he used guile to get through that lineup to pick up the win. That series was everything you think of when you think of deGrom, and it happened in the postseason.
His catcher in that series? Travis d’Arnaud.
It’s easy to forget, but d’Arnaud has caught deGrom, and he has caught him well. It was d’Arnaud behind the plate when deGrom emerged from seemingly out of nowhere to win the 2014 Rookie of the Year. It was d’Arnaud behind the plate in the 2015 postseason. It was d’Arnaud behind the plate when deGrom was coming back from ulnar transposition surgery.
There are many reasons why d’Arnaud has caught deGrom well. First and foremost, deGrom is a great pitcher. As we have seen this season, deGrom can pitch great to Wilson Ramos and to Tomas Nido. Second, d’Arnaud has proven himself to be an excellent pitch framer, which allows an already lethal pitcher like deGrom ramp up his game to an unfair level.
Overall, d’Arnaud is a very good receiver who has a rapport with these Mets pitchers. If he didn’t, the Mets would have non-tendered him and kept the much cheaper Kevin Plawecki this past offseason, or they would have stuck with Devin Mesoraco. That goes double considering d’Arnaud was coming off Tommy John surgery.
Overall, the point is deGrom is great because he is great, and as we have seen time and time again, he’s even better with a catcher behind the plate who can steal those extra strikes for him. Ultimately, this is why we have seen deGrom at his best with d’Arnaud behind the plate.
Two starts into the season, and Zack Wheeler looks more like the maddening pitcher he was most of his career than the pitcher who had a better second half era than Jacob deGrom. In fact, you could say this is the worst he’s ever looked. So far, he’s 0-1 with a 10.24 ERA, 1.862 WHIP, and a 7.4 BB/9.
This has led to a a number of different reactions. There is a wonder if the Mets made the right decision not extending Wheeler. It’s possible the second half was an enigma. Possibly, while we focused on deGrom, maybe it was really Wheeler who benefited from Devin Mesoraco.
The most likely answer is it is none of those things. Really, this is a slow start from a slow starter.
In Wheeler’s career, his April ERA is 4.95, which is his worst of his career. Breaking it down, Wheeler is a slow starter. His career first half ERA is 4.45, and his second half ERA is 2.92. This includes his having a 2.30 ERA in the month of August.
For a moment, take a look back at the 2014 season. In April and May, Wheeler had a 4.31 ERA, and he was getting hit hard by some of the better teams in baseball. As disappointing as his first half would prove, something seemed to click with him in July.
In July, Wheeler had a 1.67 ERA. Between July and August, he had a 2.24 ERA. Over the course of those 10 starts, he averaged 6.1 innings per start, and he limited batters to a .211/.295/.343 batting line. In all 10 of those starts, he allowed three earned or fewer, nine of those starts were two earned or fewer, and in half of those starts he allowed just one earned.
After that second half, there was much excitement about seeing Wheeler being a significant part of the 2015 Mets rotation. Unfortunately, circumstances would prove differently. It would not be until the 2018 season Wheeler would try reemerge.
Like that 2014 season, Wheeler struggled through May. In fact, while it may be easy to forget, Wheeler had a 5.40 ERA as the Mets entered June. Once again, he began to figure it out in July, and over July and August, Wheeler would have a 2.o1 ERA. Once again, his second half had people eagerly anticipating him being a part of the Opening Day rotation.
So far, the enthusiasm has been tampered down a bit. Two rough starts against a potent Nationals lineup will do that to a pitcher. It will do that all the more to a pitcher who is typically a slow starter. It’s easy to overlook that early in the season when two bad starts wildly skew a player’s stats.
In the end, baseball is a marathon, and at the end of the day, the Mets need Wheeler to be Wheeler for them to be successful. If he takes his time to warm up, so be it because in the end, we know how great he can be when he gets it going. And when he gets it going, his poor start will once again be a distant memory.
After the Mets home opener, Nelson Figueroa discussed how Noah Syndergaard has too much talent and ability than to need 11 pitches to strike out Yan Gomes. If you have watched the post-game over the past few years, this has been a common refrain with Figueroa, and it is something which has been espoused elsewhere.
Essentially, the gist is Syndergaard is not getting the most out of his talent, and as a result, he is not the dominant ace many expected him to be when he first burst onto the scene in 2015. By and large, this is an unfair characterization.
Just focusing on Thursday’s start, Syndergaard threw 98 pitches over six innings. He allowed just one hit with two walks while striking out six. If that were any other pitcher, even Mets ace Jacob deGrom, we would consider that to be a very good start, and there would not be any ensuing criticism.
If you dig deeper, you realize Syndergaard was even better than the numbers suggest. For those watching, it was obvious Syndergaard was getting squeezed by home plate umpire Pat Hodberg. He’s a notoriously bad home plate umpire.
In 2015, Cardinals catcher Yadier Molina said of him, “He’s a young umpire, and he needs to figure out a better strike zone.” (Jennifer Lagosch, MLB.com). Apparently, things haven’t improved with Michael Fulmer said of Hodberg last year, “I made my fair share of mistakes, but there’s 10 calls about pitches inside the zone that he called balls. I let him know he missed 10.” (ESPN).
Going back and examining that second inning, Hodberg missed a number of calls
Noah Syndergaard's called balls and strikes through two at Citi Field pic.twitter.com/A7okNhm7hJ
— David Adler (@_dadler) April 4, 2019
Going deeper, Juan Soto led off the inning with a walk, but according to Gamecast, at least two of the called balls were strikes. Those types of umpire errors contribute to Syndergaard’s difficult inning and perceived under-performance.
All of that aside, Syndergaard was very good on Thursday as he has been throughout his Major League career.
Since his Major League debut in 2015, he leads all starters in average velocity. He has a 2.69 FIP, which is second in the Majors to just Clayton Kershaw. His HR/9 is second to just Lance McCullers. His 2.97 ERA is fifth behind Kershaw, deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Madison Bumgarner. His K/BB ratio is sixth putting him behind Kershaw, Chris Sale, Josh Tomlin, Scherzer, and Corey Kluber.
Looking at his stats, the biggest knock you have against him is his fWAR since he was called up to the majors ranks just 15th. Considering there are 30 teams in baseball, this definitively shows Syndergaard pitches like an ace. Overall, when you break down his stats his name comes up among pitchers who have won Cy Young awards and who are widely regarded as aces.
As deGrom has shown since the beginning of the 2018 season, any pitcher has room for improvement, and that would certainly apply to Syndergaard. That said, by any measure Syndergaard is a great pitcher who should be celebrated instead of nitpicked after his starts.
As is normally the case a week into the baseball season, you will see some players perform above their talent level and some below theirs. When it comes to the slow starts, people typically take more notice and begin to look for reasons and question what is wrong.
When you see Robinson Cano hitting .188 and Brandon Nimmo hitting .087, the prudent course of action is to take a wait and see approach. These are two hitters with a track record, especially Cano, and it is very possible they emerge from these struggles and return to their career norms.
While you are inclined to give Cano and Nimmo the benefit of the doubt, J.D. Davis is a different case. When you look at his hitting .150/.227/.250, it is actually fair to ask if this is what he really is as a hitter.
Certainly, it is fair to point out his 22 plate appearances is an extremely small sample size. If you want to extrapolate it further, his 203 career plate appearances, especially since they are split up over parts of three seasons, are a small sample size as well. That said, it is somewhat troubling that with his receiving more and more opportunities, his OPS+ continues to drop.
At some point, we need to investigate why and if there is more at-hand than the variations associated with a small sample size.
Davis’ biggest proponents will point out how he led the Pacific Coast League in batting average last year. Hitters league or not, Davis put together a solid season hitting .342/.406/.583 with 25 doubles, two triples, 17 homers, and 81 RBI. The disparity between those numbers and his Major League numbers do require closer analysis.
In Triple-A last year, Davis had a 9.5% walk rate and a 18.3% strikeout rate. When Davis made contact, he hit it on the ground 40.6% of the time, and he pulled it 47.2% of the time. By and large, these numbers held true throughout Davis’ minor league career, but it should be noted the strikeout rate was a career low for him. Since he started playing for full season affiliates, Davis had struck out between 23.2% – 28.4% of the time.
Putting aside his results in the majors, his offensive profile looks similar to the type of hitter he was in the minors. In his 203 Major League plate appearances, he has walked 7.9% of the time, and he has struck out 27.1% of the time. He has a 54.2% ground ball rate, and he pulls the ball 45.8% of the time.
When looking at scouting reports, Baseball America said, “It will always come with a significant number of strikeouts and he’s unlikely to hit better than .230-.240 albeit with decent on-base percentages because he draws some walks. While many Astros have embraced hitting more fly balls, Davis’ swing leads to a lot of screaming ground balls.”
Really, when you break it down, this is what Davis is. He’s a hitter who is going to hit the ball very hard on the ground. At a time in baseball history where teams shift and even over-shift, the balls Davis hit for singles and even doubles at the Triple-A level are going to go for ground outs.
Moreover, in an area with advanced data, Major League pitchers are going to be able to pitch Davis much better than a Triple-A pitcher would. They have the scouting reports and ability to pitch it in areas not only where Davis is prone to swing-and-miss, but they are also able to locate it in areas where they know Davis will just pull a grounder into the shift.”
Unfortunately, when you break it down, even though Davis’ raw power rivals that of Pete Alonso, his production is more akin to Eric Campbell, another player who hit the ball very hard on the ground to the left side of the infield. As such, until Davis makes significant adjustments, his career is not going to “launch” the way the Mets anticipated, and sooner or later, he’s going to have be “grounded.”