Musings
In the past offseason, Brodie Van Wagenen opted to non-tender Wilmer Flores making the player who once cried at the thought of leaving the Mets a free agent. Last night, he not only returned to New York, but he would face the Mets for the first time. In the fifth inning last night, he would homer against his former teammate Jacob deGrom:
Welcome back, Wilmer! pic.twitter.com/yFPAOZc3YY
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) September 10, 2019
The homer was a bittersweet moment for Mets fans. In fact, there was a smattering of applause in the stands as the Mets still love and respected Wilmer. It should also be bittersweet because non-tendering him was a real mistake.
Looking back at it, Flores was a 0.5 WAR player last year. Given the construct of 1.0 WAR being worth $9 million on the free agent market, Flores was worth about $4.5 million last year, which coincidentally, was roughly what he would have been worth in arbitration.
But seeing what he was worth last year is not exactly the point. The point is when you look to sign a player, whether in free agency or arbitration, you are looking to pay for future value. With that in mind, It is important to remember Flores was a player turning 27 years old and entering his prime.
But it was more than just his entering his prime. He has cut down on his strikeouts and increasing his contact rate at the plate. It wasn’t just more contact, but it is also harder contact. It’s part of the reason why he had been above league average hitter. Part of that development as a hitter was his transitioning from being a platoon bat to being a player who could hit both right and left-handed pitching.
This is typically the part where someone jumps in to point out his defense. No, Flores is not a good defender. No one can or should claim he is. However, Flores has shown himself good at first base and passable at second. In a pinch, he is someone you could have play at third or short. No, not for more than a game or two, but there is value in his ability to stand there for a short duration.
Looking at the defense, we should remember he would have been depth on the Mets. He was a guy who could have been on the field when Todd Frazier and Robinson Cano went down. With Jeff McNeil‘s ability to play third and outfield, the Mets could have limited Flores to second. An important note here was he was a player who never complained about his role and was a good guy in the clubhouse. There is an immense amount of value in that.
We also know Flores has the clutch gene as the Mets all-time leader in walk-off hits. In extra innings, Flores is a .378/.404/.667 hitter in extra innings. This, along with the crying and his being one the players who stayed on the field longest signing autographs, made him a beloved Mets player.
So far this year, Flores is a 0.7 WAR player. That’s a higher WAR than any current Mets bench player. This highlights the Mets mistake in letting him go, and that mistake is further exacerbated when you consider the Diamondbacks are ahead of the Mets in the Wild Card standings. As time elapses, the Mets are going to have to contend with Flores helping other teams and reminding the Mets of the mistake it was letting him go.
On Friday night, the Mets led 4-2 heading into the ninth inning. Mickey Callaway then sent Edwin Diaz out there to earn the save. In the offseason and April, this would’ve seemed like a no-brainer. However, not hasn’t been the case all year. Everyone has lost faith in him.
After a Jean Segura one out single, J.T. Realmuto homered to tie the game. It was the 14th homer he allowed all year, which is just one fewer than he had allowed over the previous two seasons combined. It was the latest down point in a series of down points. In a bit of irony, he’d get the win because of the Mets two out rally culminating in a Pete Alonso walk-of win.
On Saturday, the Mets were tied 4-4 heading into the sixth inning. After Paul Sewald allowed a leadoff double to Rhys Hoskins. After a sacrifice bunt, Luis Avilan came in and had perhaps his worst outing of the season allowing an RBI single to Phil Gosselin before allowing a two run homer to Maikel Franco. Why Avilan was left in to face Franco is anyone’s guess.
With the Mets rallying back in the sixth to make this a 7-6 game, Callaway turned to Justin Wilson, his second best reliever, to start the inning. For the first time since he came off the IL, Wilson didn’t have it. When he didn’t have it with Scott Kingery hitting a two run homer off of him, Tyler Bashlor came in to relieve him.
For his part, Bashlor would walk Sean Rodriguez and allow a double to Franco. Then, for reasons which confounded everyone, Andrew Knapp and his career .219/.329/.322 batting line was intentionally walked to allow Bashlor to face Bryce Harper, who was pinch hitting for reliever Mike Morin.
Bashlor, and his MLB career 4.6 BB/9, which includes a 6.6 this year, was allowed to face Harper with the bases loaded. You could see the walk coming a mile away, and arguably, the walk, driving home the Phillies 10th run of the game, could be argued to be a much better outcome than what could’ve happened if Harper made contact.
With the season on the line, and in the highest leveraged situations the Mets faced all year, the bullpen gave up six runs over two innings. That was after Diaz blew the lead on Friday night. While the bullpen melted down in those two games, Mets fans watched on bewildered and horrified. Do you know who else was watching on?
Somehow, in the latest in a series of the Mets biggest series of the season, Lugo didn’t throw one pitch. Not one. If memory serves, he didn’t even soft tossing let alone warm up in any of those games. Potentially, the Mets chances at winning a Wild Card went by the wayside while the team’s best reliever watched it happen.
As horrible as we all feel, you could only imagine how Brad Brach felt. Remember, he was a member of that 2016 Orioles team who lost to the Blue Jays in 11 innings as Zack Britton, clearly the best reliever in the game that year, never entered the game. At some point, you have to wonder if he was having flashbacks.
With respect to Lugo, it should be remembered he threw two innings on Thursday. That was a day game after a night game, and in that night game, he threw an inning. That’s three innings over a 24 hour period. That’s a lot for a reliever with known UCL issues. It’s a lot for a reliever the Mets have been careful in trying to get him rest so as to not burn him out or injure him.
What we don’t know is whether he was unable to rebound after throwing those three innings. We also don’t know if Callaway was waiting for a late inning situation on Sunday which never presented itself. No matter what the case, the only thing we know is with the season on the line Lugo didn’t throw a pitch. If there is no injury issues, and there very well may be, that’s inexcusable.
The only thing more inexcusable than that is the fact that the Mets do not have another arm who could get a key out or pitch a scoreless frame in those three key innings.
There is a wealth of information which proves to us CERA is not a reliable source of information upon which to base decisions. The sample sizes are too small to draw any sort of conclusions, and there are too many variables at play like home plate umpires and opposing lineups. Despite all of that, the pairing of Noah Syndergaard and Rene Rivera seems significant.
Certainly, it felt that way in Washington last week. After a Trea Turner leadoff single, Syndergaard retired the next 16 batters in a row striking out nine of them. Syndergaard’s final line was 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 10 K. The last time Syndergaard pitched seven innings walking none and striking out 10 was April 20, 2017. His catcher that day? Rene Rivera.
Now, Syndergaard has had plenty of dominating performances since he was last paired with Rivera. That said, he seemed to be much more consistently dominant with Rivera behind the plate. For example, Syndergaard started the 2017 season allowing just two earned runs in his first three starts while averaging 6.1 innings per start. In those games, he struck out 20 and walked none. Syndergaard would have similar runs in 2016 including but not limited to his GREAT performance in the 2016 Wild Card game.
Overall, Rivera has caught Syndergaard 29 times. In those 29 games, Syndergaard has a 2.52 ERA. When Syndergaard is caught by another catcher, he has a career 3.57 ERA. When Syndergaard is caught by Rivera, he has a 1.9 BB/9 and a 10.3 K/9. When he is caught by anyone else, Syndergaard has a 2.2 BB/9 and a 9.5 K/9. Again, these numbers could be explained by sheer randomness, but seeing the disparity, it does call for further examination as to why the discrepancy.
On that front, Rivera has long been noted for his pitch framing skills. In fact, he has elite pitch framing skills. Specifically, he has quite the ability to frame that low pitch. As the Hard Ball Times put it in 2014, Rivera’s ability allows “pitchers to have dominion over the low, outside corner, nabbing strikes that hitters would have to lunge to make contact with. It seems like it was part of a consistent strategy for Rivera and his battery mate to nip that corner on 0-0.”
Considering how Syndergaard likes throwing his sinker, he needs a catcher like Rivera to thrive. When you also consider Rivera’s years of experience behind the plate, Rivera also serves as a mentor of sorts for Syndergaard. He knows how to read Syndergaard knowing when he does and doesn’t have it. He knows what pitch to call in each situation. There is a comfort between the two, and based on Rivera’s skill behind the plate matching Syndergaard’s ability on the mound, they bring out the best in one another.
With the Mets making a push for the Wild Card and trying to get the best out of their starters, they should be pairing Syndergaard with Rivera. That goes double when there is a day game after a night game. As an aside, when the two aren’t paired, Rivera should be counseling Tomas Nido, a catcher who has a similar skill set and has gotten similar dominance from Syndergaard.
Ultimately, when it comes down to it, the Mets need to do what is best for their starters. Like in 2016 and 2017 and with his last start, Syndergaard needs to be paired with Rivera.
The New York Met did not lose last night’s game because of Mickey Callaway. They lost the game because the Mets bullpen could not hold a six run lead in the ninth inning. That’s not on the manager, and if you think it was, honestly, you are going to blame him for anything that goes wrong.
Sure, the Mets could have left Seth Lugo in the game and had a much smoother finish. However, by pulling Lugo, you save him to pitch today in what should have been an opportunity for a sweep. Again, this was a six run lead with the bottom of the Nationals linuep. If you can’t trust the rest of your bullpen to hold that lead, you’re not winning any games from here on out.
Callaway brought in Paul Sewald. Since he was called back up on August 20, he had allowed one earned run over 7.1 innings with 13 strikeouts and one walk. In his last appearance against the Phillies, he came into the game with two outs and the tying run on second, and he would get J.T. Realmuto to pop out to end the inning. As it stands, Sewald has become the Mets most reliable right-handed reliever not named Lugo.
Sewald just didn’t have it. With Anthony Rendon coming up and Juan Soto on deck, the Nationals had a run home with runners at the corners. At this point, it should be noted Brad Brach has allowed at least one run in three of his last six outings. Jeurys Familia had just blown the Phillies game, and he has not been good all year. At this point, it was very reasonable to give Sewald one more batter.
After Rendon’s RBI single, Callaway went and brought in Luis Avilan to face Soto. Entering last night’s game, left-handed batters were 2-for-38 off Avilan. Again, Avilan had allowed TWO HITS ALL YEAR to left-handed batters. TWO. He is exactly the guy you want in that situation to face Soto.
Again, he didn’t get the job done allowing a single to load the bases.
Now, the Nationals were going to pinch hit Ryan Zimmerman for Matt Adams with Avilan on the mound, and Kurt Suzuki was on deck. Before commenting this was a spot for Justin Wilson consider the splits Zimmerman and Suzuki had.
- vs. LHP
- Zimmerman .382/.417/.559
- Suzuki .349/.373/.587
- vs. RHP
- Zimmerman .195/.280/.356
- Suzuki .237/.308/.439
Look at those splits. You bring in the right-handed pitcher to face them. This was the exact situation you bring in Edwin Diaz, who just so happens to be the pitcher Brodie Van Wagenen traded Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn while taking on $100 million of Robinson Cano‘s contract to acquire.
If you’ll remember, when Familia was blowing the game against the Phillies, people were screaming Callaway should have brought in Diaz. The narrative then was Diaz had figured out his slider after working with Jacob deGrom, and he was much better. After all, he had struck out six of the last eight batters he had faced. He also had a streak where he allowed runs in just one of his past eight appearances.
You could argue for Wilson. However, Zimmerman and Suzuki annihilate left-handed pitching. Absolutely, destroys them. Chances are if you are blaming Callaway for not using him, you’d blame him for his ignoring the splits if Zimmerman and Suzuki beat him. Diaz was hot, and it had been argued Diaz figured it out. Also, just like Sewald and Avilan, this was a spot Diaz has to succeed.
Zimmerman doubled. Suzuki walked it off. That’s seven runs in one-third of an inning.
To recount, Callaway made the right move lifting Lugo to have him available for today’s game. By doing that, he could get an inning from him instead of having to use one of the guys who can’t get the job done. He went to Sewald, who has been great lately. He then went to Avilan who had allowed two hits to left-handed batters all year. He then went to the guy the Mets mortgaged the farm and payroll flexibility to close out games. That same guy had been really good entering yesterday’s game.
Ultimately, the Mets lost this game because of the inexcusable performance of three relievers who had been very good of late. This wasn’t on Callaway. Not everything is. As for his postgame comments, who cares? They’re meaningless. What matters is how he handles that clubhouse. We’ll see that in today’s game.
Overall, Callaway made the right moves. Sure, you could argue for Wilson or to stick with Lugo, and if they do that, maybe they win last night. However, at some point, you have to go to relievers not named Wilson or Lugo, and they need to succeed. That’s the case all the more with Wilson and Lugo each having elbow issues.
If no one other than Wilson and Lugo can’t get the job done, blame the relievers who can’t hold a six run lead. Blame the General Manager who assembled this disaster of a bullpen. At some point, Callaway has to use these guys, and a six run lead in the ninth was the right spot. He’s not to blame for it.
The Mets had an opportunity to seize the second Wild Card spot by sweeping the Cubs. Those hopes died when they were shut down by Yu Darvish.
They arguably had their chance to still control their own destiny, but Noah Syndergaard was shelled for 10 runs (nine earned) over three earned. After that, the Mets made it VERY interesting, but they just couldn’t deliver that key hit.
The last indignity was Craig Kimbrel, the man the Mets weren’t interested in because they had Edwin Diaz (who has since lost the de facto job to Seth Lugo) earned the save.
It now all comes down to Jacob deGrom. He wins today, and the Mets are three out with a real shot. There is no one you would rather have on the mound between his greatness and his big game experience. It’s up to the offense to finally support him.
Can the Mets come back from five back with over a month to play? Absolutely, but the task is much more difficult, especially with the season ending with the Mets playing the Braves. That last point is the most troubling.
This run has been fun, but there’s been a bit of a reality check losing at least 5/6 to the Braves and Cubs. Runs are great, but in the end, this is about winning the World Series. The Mets have the pitching to do so, and we’ve seen more unlikely runs than this in baseball history, but that said, that’s been the biggest issue over these six games.
That all said the Mets still have deGrom, and when you have deGrom, you always have a chance. Because of that, stay excited for today, the rest of the season, and hopefully, that magical postseason run.
Let’s Go Mets
In the fourth inning, Pete Alonso homered off of Yu Darvish. The homer was his 42nd of the year breaking the tie he had with Todd Hundley and Carlos Beltran for the Mets single season record.
Where no Met has ever gone before… pic.twitter.com/2YtUHdNscd
— New York Mets (@Mets) August 28, 2019
The only record now before him is Aaron Judge‘s rookie record of 52. On that front, Alonso hit 10 homers in May, which is the most he’s hit in any month thus far. He’s going to have to replicate that just to match.
Overall, there’s more than enough games to do that. That goes double when you consider there’s still trips to Coors and The Great American Ballpark remaining. With those series remaining, Alonso has a good chance.
Once again, I was privileged to join Tim Ryder and Jacob Resnick on the Simply Amazin Podcast. On the podcast, the players I recall mentioning were J.D. Davis, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto, Pete Alonso, Travis d’Arnaud, Wilson Ramos, Joe Panik, Tomas Nido, Justin Wilson, Brad Brach, Seth Lugo, Jed Lowrie, Todd Frazier, and others. One of those others was Mel Rojas, whose name I completely blanked on during the podcast.
Please take a listen.
Last night, Luis Guillorme came up as a pinch hitter in the fifth inning of the game between the Mets and Indians with the score tied 1-1. On a 1-2 pitch, he would hit an Adam Plutko fastball for a go-ahead RBI double. While impressive, it was not his biggest pinch hit of his career.
That came in the August 10 game against the Washington Nationals. In that game, Guillorme came up as a pinch hitter leading off the eighth inning with the Mets trailing 3-2. Against Fernando Rodney, Guillorme would hit his first career homer tying the game at 3-3 sending Citi Field into an absolute frenzy.
These are just two snippets from Guillorme’s brief career, and they are certainly highlights. When you dig deeper into Guillorme as a player, you see why he was able to deliver in both spots. Moreoever, you can see why he has been such a good pinch hitter in his brief career.
While you may be inclined to focus on Guillorme’s career .209/.269/.273 batting line, you should dig a little deeper on what remains a brief sample size with him having just 119 career plate appearances. Taking an even smaller sample size, Guillorme has hit .296/.387/.481 with two doubles, a homer, four RBI, and four walks in 31 pinch hitting appearances.
There’s no doubt in his limited pinch hitting appearances Guillorme has produced. Certainly, you can argue those numbers are high for him. After all, it’s much higher than the numbers he has overall as a Major Leaguer. However, it is slightly closer to the .305/.396/.434 batting line he has had across two seasons in Triple-A. No, we should not expect those numbers in the Majors, but rather, we should look at what he does well to help fuel those numbers.
When Guillorme was ranked as the Mets 13th best prospect heading into the 2018 season, Baseball America noted he was a contact oriented spray hitter with a patient approach at the plate. John Sickels when he was with Minor League Ball classified Guillorme as someone who “makes contact, controls the zone.”
The numbers have bore out those scouting reports.
In his career, Guillorme has numbers you’d expect from a contact oriented hitter walking 7.6 percent of the time and striking out 11.8 percent of the time. He has used the whole field pulling the ball 28.1 percent of the time, going up the middle 30.2 percent of the time, and going the other way 40.2 percent of the time.
Ultimately, Guillorme is a guy who is coming up to the plate looking to make contact, and he is looking for a place to put the ball. When you consider how he’s a good bunter, he is somewhat reminiscent of what Luis Castillo would do at the plate with the key difference between the two being Castillo being much faster.
Ultimately, with Guillorme’s approach at the plate and with his tenacity, he is going to give you a good at-bat every time he steps to the plate. In the late innings, he is someone you can trust to put the ball into play. That’s a much bigger deal than many my realize with many teams putting a premium on high velocity and high strikeout rate players in the bullpen.
In addition to his adeptness at making contact and giving a good at-bat late in games, he is also a very good defender up the middle. He has sure hands, and he is quick on the pivot when turning a double play. While not a fast runner, he is a smart base runner. Like with him in the field, you trust him on the base paths.
Overall, Guillorme is a player who is going to give you a good at-bat late in games, which is part of the reason why he has been a successful pinch hitter so far in his career. He is a very good defender up the middle who you want on the field. He is a good base runner who is not going to have a TOOBLAN out there. Ultimately, he is exactly the player you want on the bench when you are building a team.
For seemingly the first time in his career, he is getting a real opportunity to be that bench player, and he is succeeding. Considering his skill set, we should anticipate his continuing to succeed in this role.
While things have been going well recently, the Mets have had trouble identifying those relievers whom they can use and trust to eat up innings and take care of games where they have large leads. When that is an issue for your team, you wind up using and wasting good relievers in non-critical spots. You are also forced to use good relievers when it should not have been necessary.
On August 6, the Mets had a five run lead heading into the ninth inning against the Miami Marlins, the worst team in the National League. After eight dominant innings from Zack Wheeler, the Mets went to Robert Gsellman in the ninth. The following night, the Mets once again had a five run lead heading into the ninth. The team would use Jeurys Familia and Luis Avilan to close out the game.
On the roster at that time was Chris Mazza and Donnie Hart. The team did not use either reliever in that spot or really any spot. Truth be told if you can’t trust those relievers to close out games against the worst team in the National League, you don’t have any business being on the roster. It should come as no surprise neither pitcher is currently on the Mets roster.
When Mazza and Hart went down, Drew Gagnon was one of the relievers who replaced them on the roster. The Mets would bring Gagnon to pitch the eighth inning in the August 15 game against the Braves. At that time, the Mets had a 10-3 lead, and they just needed someone to pitch the final two innings to give the bullpen a rest. Instead, Gagnon would allow four homers, including a homer to Freddie Freeman in consecutive innings, thereby necessitating Edwin Diaz coming into the game to record the save in a 10-8 game.
This led to Paul Sewald being selected from Syracuse and re-joining the Mets bullpen. While this was largely met with eye rolls and consternation, Sewald is exactly what the Mets needed. In yesterday’s 9-2 victory over the Indians, the Mets would use Sewald out of the bullpen in the ninth. There would be no drama as he would allow a double while striking out three batters. In the grand scheme of things, these are the types of outings which are both necessary and overlooked.
Since his debut in 2017, Sewald has handled these situations well. In his career, in what is characterized as low leverage situations, he has held opposing batters to a .209/.262/.341 batting line. When there is a four run lead in either direction, Sewald has held opposing batters to a .223/.294/.365 batting line. This has permitted him to pitch multiple innings in these situations. In turn, this has allowed the Mets to save their better relievers for higher leverage situations.
This has an immense amount of value to a team, and these are the types of outings which helps a team get to the postseason. This is what Pat Mahomes provided the Mets in 1999 and 2000, Darren Oliver provided in 2006, and Sean Gilmartin provided in 2015. This is what Sewald can be over the remaining 37 games of the season. His doing that frees up Lugo, Diaz, Familia, and Justin Wilson for the higher leverage situations.
All told, Sewald can provide an immense amount of value to the Mets bullpen by eating up those innings and not having Mickey Callaway need to worry about needing to go deeper into the bullpen in these situations. As we have seen this year, this is not a role which is easily filled. Ultimately, Sewald can perform well in situations where others cannot, and as a result, he provides this bullpen and this Mets team with real value.
Entering last night’s game, the Wild Card leading Cleveland Indians traveled to New York to take on a Mets team who was just two games back in the Wild Card race. This is a huge August series which could go a long way in deciding the postseason picture. The problem is no matter the outcome of the series, it will not have a definitive impact on where each one of these teams are in the standings.
This is the inherent problem with Interleague Play and its expansion.
With the Wild Card format, the Mets are fighting for a postseason spot with the Nationals, Phillies, Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers. If you look deeper, you could also throw the Giants and the Diamondbacks on that list as well. Expand that list as far and wide as you want all the way down to the Marlins who have yet to be mathematically eliminated. No matter how far out you expand it, you will never reach the Indians.
The Indians are an American League team fighting the Minnesota Twins for the AL Central. They are trying to fend off the Rays, Athletics, and Red Sox in the Wild Card race. In no way shape or form are they competing with the Mets for the division or the American League Wild Card.
When you have a pivotal series with real postseason implications between two teams in different races, the Interleague gimmick has gone too far. It is time baseball fixes this and lets National League teams fight with National League teams for the Wild Card and let American League teams fight with American League teams for the Wild Card.
It is up to baseball to decide how to fix this. A team can be moved to the American or the National League. Baseball could expand into two markets to balance out the leagues permitting them to balance out the schedules. Short of contraction, any option is better than the Indians and Mets playing games that matter in August which will have an impact on the postseason picture.