2015 NLCS
The Mets were trailing 2-1, and no one could hit Zack Greinke except Daniel Murphy. Murphy would lead off the pivotal fourth with a hit, and Lucas Duda drew a one out walk, which precipitated this:
No, Duda is not the reason the Mets won. However, he contributed. Murphy stole the base, but it was made possible by the shift and walk. Duda is still a feared hitter. Rightfully so. He’s hit 27 homers and 33 doubles. He’s second on the Mets in OBP and first in slugging.
Also, he’s hit well against the Cubs this year. Generally, he’s always hit well against the Cubs starters:
Starters
Jon Lester 2-6 with 1 HR, 1 RBI, and 3 K
Jake Arrieta 4-11 with 3 BB and 5 K
Travis Wood 4-15 with 1 double, 1 HR, 1 RBI, 5 K
Jason Hammel 0-1 with 2 HBP
Combined 10-33 (.303 BA), 3 BB, 2 HBP (.395 OBP), one double, 2 HR (.515 slugging)
I know it’s a small sample size, but you need to start a player with these numbers in this series. Duda is primed to bust out of this slump. This is the series to do it.
As I pointed out earlier, the regular season numbers should be discounted coming into the playoffs. The Mets lineup is completely different. The pitching staff appears to be as well. Here is who pitched against the Cubs, and how they fared (* not on the postseason roster):
May 11, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Jacob deGrom L, 5.0 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Hansel Robles 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Sean Gilmartin* 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Buddy Carlyle* 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Erik Goeddel 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
May 12, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Noah Syndergaard (first career start) L, 5.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K
Alex Torres* 0.2 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K
Sean Gilmartin* 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
Hansel Robles 1.0 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
May 13, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Matt Harvey 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 9 K
Carlos Torres* BS, L, 1.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Jeurys Familia 0.1 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
May 14, 2015 – Wrigley Field
Jon Niese L, 6.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K
Hansel Robles 0.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Jack Leathersich* 0.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Erik Goeddel 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K
June 30, 2015 – Citi Field
Jon Niese L, 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 5 K
Bobby Parnell* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Sean Gilmartin* 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K
July 1, 2015 – Citi Field
Bartolo Colon 7.0 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 K
Bobby Parnell* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
Jeurys Familia 1.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K
Hansel Robles 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Carlos Torres* L, 0.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
Sean Gilmartin* 0.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
July 2, 2015 – Citi Field
Jacob deGrom L, 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 2 K
Logan Verrett* 2.2 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K
Alex Torres* 1.0 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 K
The Cubs beat the Mets seven times. Of those losses, two were by Jacob deGrom, two were by Niese, two were by Carlos Torres, and one was by Thor. Only deGrom and Thor remain in the rotation.
So to sum up, the Dodgers did do well against deGrom. Conversely, deGrom has reached another gear in the playoffs. The Cubs couldn’t hit Harvey. They never faced Steven Matz. They faced Thor in his first career start. Thor has gotten much better since that game:
#HammerTime. https://t.co/rUXBZyXYbA
— MLB (@MLB) October 16, 2015
Also, the Mets bullpen is significantly different. It’s important to note considering that Torres blew two games. They now have Addison Reed and Tyler Clippard.
While we know the Mets are a different team than, the Cubs are very similar. The only real change is Kyle Schwarber, who is just mashing the ball. However, I doubt he is enough to overcome the Mets pitching upgrades.
The Mets are vastly improved. I think it’s enough.
All season long, we’ve heard Cubs fans talking about how they’ll win the 2015 World Series because Back to the Future, Part II said they would (it didn’t). I’m sure they will next point to Rookie of the Year because in that movie the Cubs beat the Mets on the way to winning the World Series. God help us.
Lets sum up this dredge of a movie. Basically, the Cubs are such a joke of a franchise that a 12 year old pitcher named Henry Rowengartner can make their team. Sure, he could throw hard due to an arm injury, but he’s still 12. He makes the team, and he’s some sort of Aroldis Chapman. However, unlike real life, the closer is the reason why the team becomes competitive.
The only team standing in their way is the 1993 Mets with a strange player named Heddo, who looked like a failed Frankenstein experiment to combine Howard Johnson and Ogre. It all comes down to the final day of the season. The Cubs start their aging ace, Chet Steadman to start the game:
Seriously, look at that throwing motion. It’s terrible. He really couldn’t get it over 50 MPH. Maybe that’s why when Henry falls, magically healing his arm, that Heddo can’t hit the ball. I know the 1993 Mets were horrendous, but I’m pretty sure they could hit anything thrown under 70 MPH with no movement. Okay, maybe not Tito Navarro, but you get the point.
Anyway, the Cubs win. Steadman and Rowengartner can’t pitch in the playoffs, but the Cubs win the World Series. Ummm, okay. Sure. As a kid, I was disappointed because the Mets lost. I couldn’t root against the Mets, especially when they got this great new first baseman, Heddo.
I know, I know. It’s just a movie. It’s purely fictional. Just like the Cubs beating the Mets wn route to winning the World Series.
I’m sure you’ll hear several times over the next week that the Mets are 0-7 against the Cubs. It’s not indicative of what will happen in the NLCS.
First off, the 1988 Mets beat the Dodgers 10 out of 11 times. Secondly, this is a completely different Mets team. Here is a breakdown of the players who have played against the Cubs this year:
Juan Lagares 1-9 with 1 BB, 1 double, 2Ks
John Mayberry, Jr. 2-12 with 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 K
Daniel Murphy 9-25 with 1 BB, 3 doubles
Michael Cuddyer 2-17 with 1 R, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 5 K
Lucas Duda 7-25 with 3 R, 2 BB, 2 RBI, 3 HBP, 1 double, 1 HR, 12 K
Wilmer Flores 4-23 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 1 double, 2 HR, 2 BB, 3 K
Kevin Plawecki 3-17 with 2 RBI, 4 K
Curtis Granderson 5-24 with 3 BBs, 2 RBI, 1 double, 6 K
Dilson Herrera 2-11 with 1 R, 1 BB, 5 K
Ruben Tejada 1-18 with 1 BB, 8 K
Johnny Monell 1-8 with 4 K
Kirk Nieuwenhuis 0-7 with 2 K
Anthony Recker 2-4 with 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 HR, 2 K
Darrell Ceciliani 1-7 with 3 K
Eric Campbell 0-3 with 1 BB, 1 K
Overall, the Mets had a combined 70 ABs from players not on the playoff roster. They went 9-70 against the Cubs this year. There were an additional 50 ABs from players on the playoff roster, who are either on the bench or are platoon players. Those players went 6-50. Of a total of 171 ABs, 120 of them went to players who will not be in the starting lineup in the NLCS. Therefore, how can you glean anything from these games.
As you may notice, there are no ABs from David Wright, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, or Travis d’Arnaud. That’s half of the position players in the current Mets starting lineup. This is more than enough to turn an 0-7 deficit to a winning record.
I’m confident the Mets changes will be enough to make it to the World Series.