Using Fernando Tatis Extension As Model For Francisco Lindor
As has been reported, Fernando Tatis, Jr. signed a 14 year $340 million contract extension with a full no trade clause. Naturally, when it comes to the Mets, the question is how exactly would this impact a potential Francisco Lindor extension.
Now, there are considerations to take into account. First, Tatis had years of arbitration which needed to be addressed in a deal like this. Tatis is also a little more than five years younger. All of these factors impact the contract.
When looking at the extension to apply to Lindor, there are two key points. The first is what Tatis will be paid entering his age 28 season.
If Tatis had not signed an extension, he would’ve been a free agent after the 2024 season. One of the sites which has the breakdown of the contract is Spotrac.
Looking at his contract at that point, it’s a 10 year $324 million deal with a $32.4 million AAV. Arguably, that’s the vicinity of an extension which Lindor could want from the Mets.
Of course, that takes Tatis from age 26 – 35. Lindor is currently 27, and he would be looking to sign as a free agent entering his age 28 season.
When Tatis enters his age 28 season, his salary jumps from $20 to $25 million. That further impacts his AAV. From age 28 – 35, Tatis’ deal is eight years $266 million. That’s an AAV of $33.25 million.
Basically, when you break it down, Tatis’ extension sets the stage for Lindor to seek a contract extension north of $30+ million a year. In fact, with Tatis making $36 million over the final six years of his deal, Lindor could reasonably seek an AAV in that ballpark.
As an aside, the Mets reportedly offered Trevor Bauer $40 million to pitch for them in 2021 which opt outs in future years. It’s hard to unring that bell if you’re a player and his agent when negotiating a deal with the Mets.
It’s also difficult to unring the $35 million AAV the Mets were willing to pay Bauer if he had signed the contract and opted in all three years.
When it comes to Lindor, he’s a far superior player to Bauer. He’s a future Hall of Famer as well. It’s going to be extremely difficult for the Mets to argue Lindor is worth less than Bauer.
Given track record, it’s also difficult to argue Lindor should be paid less than Tatis. Again, that means the starting point for the Mets and Lindor is a contract north of $30 million per year, and when all is said and done, he could very well be pushing $40 million.
That’s where the Tatis extension put the ballpark of a Lindor one. The Bauer offer makes it all the more difficult for the Mets. Whether the Mets get to that point remains to be seen, but that said, the Mets had to be prepared to do that when they pulled off this trade.