Mets Should Not Pursue Trevor Bauer

With Marcus Stroman accepting the qualifying offer, the Mets have another top of the line starting pitcher to pair with Jacob deGrom. Arguably, their rotation is fine as is, especially with Noah Syndergaard due to return after the All Star Break. That said, ideally, the Mets want Seth Lugo in the bullpen meaning the team needs to sign one more starter.

Right now, the popular choice among Mets fans is Trevor Bauer. For a few reasons, he’s not the ideal choice for this team.

First and foremost is cost. Yes, this is no longer the period of austerity with the Wilpons. Still, even Steve Cohen presumably has his limits.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Bauer will sign a deal in the vicinity of four years $128 million ($32 million AAV). That is a lot of money to tie up in a soon to be 30 year old pitcher. That goes double when you consider the Mets other needs.

This offseason, the Mets need to probably add at least one more starter. They also desperately need a real CF and a catcher. Past that, the team needs to build a bullpen again. Bauer at $30+ million a year encumbers the ability to build a complete roster.

When you look past 2021, Bauer further damages the Mets ability to build a complete team.

After the 2021 season, Stroman, Syndergaard, Michael Conforto, and Steven Matz will be free agents. After that season, deGrom can opt out, and Brandon Nimmo will be a free agent. This is part of the core of this Mets team. It may be difficult to keep all of them as is. With signing Bauer to a mega-deal, it really restricts the Mets ability to do that.

This is especially noteworthy because Brodie Van Wagenen stripped the Mets farm system. The players the Mets could’ve had come through the ranks to replace some of these players are gone. That puts an increased importance on keeping the talent on the roster on the Mets.

Another important note with Bauer’s expected contract is it may very well be a poor investment relative to what’s available on the market. Consider the numbers of the following pitchers over the last four years:

That’s just five of the options in a fairly deep middle of the rotation market. Looking at Bauer, he may be better than the group, but he’s not $20 million better. Not even close.

That goes double when you consider his numbers prior to his beating up on HORRENDOUS offenses in a shortened season. From 2017 – 2019, Bauer had a 124 ERA+ and a 3.60 FIP.

Those numbers put Bauer a clear step below Morton who is likely to sign a shorter term deal for roughly 1/3 of the AAV Bauer is going to receive.

Yes, it can be argued Bauer is younger and might’ve unlocked something. However, it’s far from a guarantee, and his expected contract will pay him like his 2020 will be repeated over the next 3-4 seasons.

If you’re the Mets, that’s a bad bet to make with so many areas of the roster to address this year and with their need to lockup their homegrown stars. Taking all that into account, the Mets really need to pass on Bauer and get an equally talented pitcher which would also permit them to truly pursue J.T. Realmuto, George Springer, and the other top free agents.

9 thoughts on “Mets Should Not Pursue Trevor Bauer”

  1. Oldbackstop says:

    Bauer has repeatedly said he will only sign for one year.

    1. Mets Daddy says:

      He has backtracked off of that.

  2. Oldbackstop says:

    Again….you are talking like budget is a problem. Not anynmore. Rewire your beain, Wilpon is gone.You have PWSD.

    Bauer is a must get. We then gave all our trade chits to pursue other upgrades and extra arms. We don’t him for cash we have to trade youth for a frontline starter. You say Lugo in the rotation? His ERA was over 6, I think. Porcello was better. Lugo is a creature of the bullpen, plus how stupid do we look the first time he goes 90 pitches he blows out his torn elbow?

    1. Mets Daddy says:

      Cohen will not have a $350 million payroll, so please, return to reality.

      And no, Bauer is not a must get. Far from it.

      1. Oldbackstop says:

        Who said 350? And you are the one that advocated a “megadeal’ with the Indians that would take on huge payroll while giving away cheap MLBers. Plus extending Stroman, Conforto, Nimmo + many+re-signing Porcello.

        Bauer comes without giving up youth or taking on bad contracts. Any arms we trade for will entail giving up cheap youth, worsening payroll

        Plus, you have advocated signing Porcello and keeping Matz. Any other championship moves in your mind?

        Bauer, btw, has often said he wanted a team that will let him pitch eveey 4th day, which he feels his arm will handke from his unique workouts. That would be a tremendoys boon to our rotation if it worked. I’m skeptical but. His methodolgy just won the Cy Young, so whi knows?
        Bauer, deGrom; Stroman, Peterson, Bauer, New Guy, deGrom, Stroman, Peterson, Bauer, New Guy, deGrom, Stroman, Bauer….

        1. Mets Daddy says:

          Mets can’t sign Bauer and br competitive without an unprecedented payroll.

          You can thank BVW for that.

          1. oldbackstop says:

            Really? Why? He left the same payroll dollar amount he inherited and only has two long term contracts left to his heirs..

            The Mets only have three 2021 contracts over $11 mil and one is Stroman’s $18 mil. In 2022 they only have deGrom and Cano for $42 mil. The Phillies have over $100 mil committed to 2022.

            What does “unprecedented” mean? For the Mets? Sure.

          2. Mets Daddy says:

            It would really help if you bothered looking into things instead of spewing out BVW/Jeff talking points.

  3. Oldbackstop says:

    You say: Stroman, Syndergaard, Michael Conforto, and Steven Matz are free agents after 2021 and we may not be able to keep them all.”

    Let’s see. Matz $0. Conforto we get done this week, 5/125 or whatever. Thor, who knows? Does he come back as the 2018 Thor? Or the replacement levelish 2019 Thor? Stroman has shown he wants to be here…if not he is replaceable. We have very little challenge after the year.

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