As of this morning, the New York Mets are 22-27. That puts them 6.5 behind the Atlanta Braves for the division. That means they’re effectively eliminated from the NL East race.

However, due to the expanded postseason format, they’re only three games out in the loss column for the last Wild Card spot. With 11 games remaining in the season, there’s a chance.

However, when you break it down, it’s a very unrealistic chance.

First and foremost, you’re asking this Mets team to go on a run. We’re nearly 2/3 through the season, and the Mets have only won two series all season. Both series have come against the Miami Marlins, and that season series is over.

After today’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies, the Mets remaining opponents are the Braves (third best team in the NL) Tampa Bay Rays (second best team in the AL), and the Washington Nationals.

Asking for the 8-2 stretch against that schedule is a big ask. It’s also a big ask to ask the Mets to leapfrog four teams in the process.

Keep in mind, the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers, two teams ahead of the Mets, play each other five more times this season.

In the West, the San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, two teams ahead of the Mets, play each other four times.

That means during those games the Mets are not going to make ground on at least half the field. It also means when they lose, they’re losing ground to half the field.

Couple that with Jacob deGrom dealing with a hamstring spasm. Beyond that spasm not making it possible for deGrom to make multiple short rest starts to help push the Mets over the top, the Mets can’t be sure what deGrom can give them in the event he can pitch.

After deGrom, the Mets are really only guaranteed five good innings from Seth Lugo. Past Lugo, the rotation is a complete and utter mess to the point not even the Mets seem to know who is going to start for them the rest of the way.

So, yes, mathematically, the Mets can still make the postseason. However, when you break it down, even if they put up a completely improbable 10 game winning streak, chances are they’re missing the postseason.