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Starting Pitcher Injuries Should Keep Seth Lugo In Bullpen

With Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman going down, the Mets need a fifth starter. Whenever the Mets need a starter, the debate once again turns to whether Seth Lugo should be put back in the rotation.

Certainly, you can understand the impetus. Lugo was a revelation in the rotation in 2016, and without him in the rotation, the Mets very likely miss the postseason. We also saw him back that up by being the ace for Puerto Rico in the 2017 World Baseball Classic.

We know Lugo can start, and we know he can be extremely good in the rotation. We also know Lugo is one of, if not the best, reliever in baseball. It’s extremely difficult to part with that.

The Mets starting pitching and bullpen injuries make it even tougher to remove Lugo from the bullpen.

At the moment, the Mets rotation only has three reliable starters in deGrom, Steven Matz, and Rick Porcello. While reliable, past deGrom, that’s not a lot of innings.

In 2019, Matz averaged 5.1 innings per start. Things improved in the second half when he moved to the middle of the runner. After that, he did average 5.2 innings per start. That’s still under 6.0, but he did make strides towards at least being a six inning pitcher.

Porcello also averaged 5.1 innings per start. That was after averaging 5.2 innings per start the previous year. Looking at his career, Porcello’s innings have declined in each of the last three years. That’s a bad trend for a pitcher the Mets need to be an innings eater.

That means two of the Mets three best pitchers don’t consistently pitch at least six innings. That leaves the bullpen getting 10-11 outs during their starts. That should prove to be a break compared to the fourth and fifth spots.

Last year, Michael Wacha averaged just 4.2 innings per start. Over the final three months of the season, he pitched into the fifth just three times over 11 starts. In his career, he’s never averaged more than 5.2 innings per start. This is from the fourth starter.

After that, the Mets are stuck going to Corey Oswalt, David Peterson, or bullpenning it. The young starters can’t be relied upon to consistently go deep into games. That puts a further burden on the pen, and that gets worse with planned bullpen games.

Further compounding a bullpen game is the lack of people who can go multiple innings consistently. Robert Gsellman was that guy, but he’s injured. Effectively speaking, that leaves Lugo as the only reliever who can consistently give the Mets multiple innings out of the pen.

That goes to another point. The Mets rotation isn’t the only part of this staff beset with injuries. Brad Brach and Jared Hughes will begin the year on the IL.

Really, a lot of the Mets bullpen is a question mark. Can Edwin Diaz and Jeurys Familia rebound from bad 2019 seasons? Will Justin Wilson‘s elbow hold up? Can Dellin Betances return to his dominant pre-injury form?

There’s just far too many questions in the bullpen and far too few innings in the rotation. Asking any bullpen to have to cover 10-12+ outs four out of ever five days is a monumental ask. It’s even worse with few off days.

Fact is, at the moment, the Mets need Lugo in the pen. He’s really the Mets only option who can pitch multiple innings. He’s the best reliever on the team.

Really, Lugo is the best option out of the pen. At a time when the Mets need the bullpen to take on a tough workload due to the schedule, they should have Lugo at the ready to get those innings as it’s not coming from another reliever.

Overall, Lugo may be the best option for fifth starter. He’s also the best reliever the Mets have. They need him out otherwise. In any event, Lugo is where he belongs – in that bullpen.

2 thoughts on “Starting Pitcher Injuries Should Keep Seth Lugo In Bullpen”

  1. Oldbackstop says:

    First off, Gsellman may not be out much past next week. Stroman….well, I guess from what I have seen it isa few weeks to the end of the year, we will see.

    Peterson may get a shot at Stroman’s slot. If he does passably well, we are fine there. Gsellman, while I like him and his hair, has been near replacement level the past year.

    With the minor leagues shuttered, replacement level guys shouldn’t be hard to find.

    Lugo should stay in the pen, IMO, because he still has that partial tear. I’d hate to see him go 5 innings and then lose him for a year.

    1. metsdaddy says:

      Gsellman missed the final few months last year with an arm injury and a new one has surfaced. There’s zero reason to believe you can count on his returning, and if he does no one can be assured he’d be productive.

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