menu

National League DH Arguments Are Highly Flawed

Major League Baseball is embroiled in the sign stealing scandal, so it was time for baseball to dust off the old universal DH alarm. Many will have you believe there’s an air of inevitability to it, and from a Mets perspective, we hear this is the best case scenario with Robinson Cano, J.D. Davis, and Dominic Smith (as if you can DH three players).

Whenever we hear about this, proponents of the universal DH rush to make arguments which don’t hold up to scrutiny. Let’s look at them:

No One Wants To See Pitcher’s Hit

This is usually the biggest rejoinder as if fans enjoy seeing defensive geniuses like Rey Ordonez (59 OPS+) or Juan Lagares (83 OPS+) hit.

Looking at attendance figures, the last time an AL team had the highest attendance was 2010. This year, three of the top five and six of the top 10 teams in attendance were NL teams. By the same token, nine of the worst 11 teams in attendance were AL teams.

This is something which holds true year-in and year-out. If the DH is really a drawing point for fans, it’s not showing up in attendance figures.

Pitchers Kill Rallies

The scenario always painted is based loaded, two outs, your team down one, and you lose because the pitcher comes up to the plate. Frankly, this doesn’t happen.

In 2019, Stephen Strasburg led all pitchers in plate appearances. He averaged 2.3 plate appearances per game. Frankly, he and all pitchers are out of the game for a pinch hitter when the game is on the line.

On that front, from the seventh inning on, NL punch hitters have a 78 wRC+. That’s slightly higher than AL ninth place hitters with their 77 wRC+. Fact is, when the game is on the line, NL and AL teams are sending the same caliber of hitter to the plate.

As for the pitchers being rally killers, it’s hard to argue they’re not even if the case is grossly overstated. In 2019, there were 2,079 PA by batters with two outs and runners in scoring position. Only 97 of those PA (4.7%) were from pitchers.

Really, when you break it down, pitchers aren’t getting the plate appearances in high leverage situations proponents of the DH want you to believe.

DH Means More Offense

Now, there’s no doubting a DH is a better hitter than a pitcher. After all, in 2019, DHs had a 104 wRC+ as compared to the pitchers -18 wRC+. That’s an astronomical difference.

Even with the difference between the two, it’s not making the difference in run scoring and offense as people will have you believe.

In 2019, NL teams hit .251/323/.431, and AL teams hit .253/.323/.439. On average, NL teams scored 4.8 runs per game, and AL teams scored 4.9 runs per game. That is not remotely close to being a significant difference. In fact, on a game-to-game basis, it’s not remotely discernible.

This may come as a surprise when you look at the difference between a pitcher and DH hitting. However, as noted above, most pitchers get two PA per game. As the game moves towards increased bullpen use, that number will drop. Between that and pitchers not batting in high leverage situations, there shouldn’t be much of a surprise there’s no real difference in run scoring between the leagues.

The DH Adds Jobs

One argument for the DH is it adds jobs. It doesn’t. If you look, both AL and NL teams have 26 man rosters. The DH isn’t adding a roster spot, but rather, another spot in the lineup. As shown above, that spot alone isn’t driving attendance or run scoring.

DH Keeps Veterans Around Longer

This has always been a curious argument. At its core, this argument is saying fans would want to see older players with severely diminished skills over exciting young players.

Putting that aside, that’s not how teams utilize the DH. Last year, the 10 batters who had the most PA as a DH were:

If you’re looking to discern a pattern here, it is these are players teams have decided they don’t want in the field. That applies to the 22 year old reigning AL Rookie of the Year to the 2013 AL MVP.

Looking at Cabrera, he is a DH not because teams want to see him finish up his Hall of Fame career and give him a chance to put more numbers. Rather, it is because he has a long-term deal, and the Tigers have to play him somewhere.

Cabrera and players like Cruz are a dying breed in the AL. Teams are increasingly using the DH for poor fielders or as a way to keep players fresh. We’re not seeing it as a place where Vladimir Guerrero or other Hall of Famers try to hang on for a few more years.

Pitcher Injury Concerns

Whenever this issue comes up, we undoubtedly hear about Chien-Ming Wang‘s season ending injury. It was unfortunate, but let’s revisit it.

Wang injured himself running. No, not sliding into a base. Not a collision with a fielder. He injured himself running. Want to throw in it was from his stepping on a base, fine, go ahead.

Realistically speaking, this is no different, than pitchers running to cover first. They run full speed and step on the base. In the end, Wang injured himself on a non-contact baseball play.

If the issue is we don’t want to see pitchers running and stepping on bases, we’re going to have to find out a new way to handle plays were first basemen have to stray too far off first to field the ball.

Another point on Wang’s unfortunate injury was this occurred over a decade ago, and we haven’t seen another pitcher suffer a similar injury since that time. We also don’t see pitchers suffer injuries batting.

In essence, this is an overreaction to an isolated event, which as we have seen, happens maybe once a decade.

MLB Is Only League Where Pitchers Hit

This is just flat out false. In fact, the NPL Central League also has pitchers batting. When you look at it that way, the two very best professional baseball leagues have pitchers batting.

In the minors, we also will see pitchers batting when NL affiliates square off against one another.

Looking at it this way, why should baseball lower its standards to what semi-professional and amateur leagues do? Aren’t these supposed to be the absolute best players playing at the highest level?

Really, it doesn’t make sense to lower baseball’s standards to comply with what far lesser professional leagues do.

Overall, this is much like the argument for the universal DH. It’s mostly largely unsubstantiated rhetoric which comports to what people think the DH should do, but doesn’t.

In the end, there are a substantial number of baseball fans who love the National League style of baseball. They should be permitted to enjoy that baseball, which as we have seen, generates higher attendance and larger revenues while having a game with more strategy and substantially speaking, the same amount of offense.

If you still can’t handle those roughly two PA per game from pitchers, there’s a whole league you can enjoy while you leave the traditional and better baseball for the rest of us, who based on the numbers, outnumber the DH or bust fans.

0 thoughts on “National League DH Arguments Are Highly Flawed”

  1. oldbackstop says:

    The three batter rule will cut down on teams running out of pitchers and having to let them hit, as will the 26 man roster.

    Those are the most salient points in the debate.

    1. metsdaddy says:

      That only addresses the frequency of pitching changes

    2. Oldbackstop says:

      Also, trend toward openers.

      Also, Bartolo.

      Also, Thor hitting two at Dodger Stadium

      Also, Matz’s grandfather.

      1. metsdaddy says:

        Those other things do feature what makes Baseball great – the fact anything could happen

  2. Blair M. Schirmer says:

    Anything that increases the amount of strategy in a game tends to be good. Anything that decreases the amount of strategy in a game tends to be bad. The DH reduces strategy. I don’t like it. I will be a little less interested in watching the game as a result, if the NL goes to the DH.

    “Looking at Cabrera, he is a DH not because teams want to see him finish up his Hall of Fame career and give him a chance to put more numbers. Rather, it is because he has a long-term deal, and the Tigers have to play him somewhere.”

    —–There are a lot of lessons in Miggy’s careeer. Some of the sadder ones:

    1) The Tigers will be paying about $210 million over the 7 years beginning in 2017 to a player who contributes nothing on the field.
    2) He’s a player who received MVP votes in 14 consecutive seasons and won two consecutive MVPs and, as of the 4th season after the second MVP, he was replacement level.
    3) His last useful season was when he was 33.

    It’s not just PEDs testing that’s decreasing the ability of older players to stay in the game (not saying Miggy would have gone that route). When the game sped up, when pitchers were encouraged to throw faster and faster, that also made it tougher for older players to get around on the ball enough to stay in the game. Except for pitching, baseball is primarily a game of fast-twitch fibers and reflex. Larry Walker has said all he ever did was go up to the plate and try to hit the ball. His entire hitting philosophy takes about 20 seconds to impart. Baseball aside from pitching is mostly ‘see the ball, hit the ball,’ and getting good jumps in the field. All the intelligence in the world won’t postpone the inevitable more than trivially.

    With PEDs testing and the speed of pitching, baseball became a game for superstars and for men in their 20s. And even the superstars often don’t make it very far into their 30s.

  3. Blair M. Schirmer says:

    Fwiw the crew at MLB.com put out their projections today and have the Mets variously winning 85, 86, 86, and 87 games, while three of the commentators pick the Mets to finish 4th in the division, and one picks them to tie for 3rd with the Phillies, iirc. Around 3:10 the discussion is whether the Mets have a chance to win the division. The consensus appears to be that they have a chance, but are the least likely of the top four in the East to take the division.

    The NL East outspent every other division, btw, totaling $722m in free agent contracts this offseason.

    https://www.mlb.com/video/projecting-the-nl-east-race?t=most-popular

    —-It looks like the Mets spent 3% of that $722m; about $27m unless I’m forgetting someone. 3%, after a third place finish and missing the postseason.

    1. metsdaddy says:

      Personally, I have the Mets as the fourth best team on paper, but it’s not a wide disparity between the four teams.

      As we saw with the Phillies, the team with the biggest injuries will take them out of the running.

      As we saw with the Mets, the team with the biggest flaws (bullpen, defense) moves them lower in the pack.

      As we saw with the Braves with Donaldson, the team who gets the big year from a player can go over the top.

    2. Oldbackstop says:

      @Blair….the return of even 85% of Cespedes pushes us way up, I think. I think the back of the rotation and the pen have enough slack to take an injury or a performance collapse and still be above average.

      If Cespedes is back we will be looking around for ABs for Dom, JD and Lowerie…a nice problem to have with three guys of starter caliber.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *