With Second Cy Young, Jacob deGrom Looking Like a Hall of Famer

The entire list of pitchers in Major League history who have won a Rookie of the Year award and two Cy Young Awards are Tom Seaver, Jacob deGrom, and Justin Verlander. That’s the entire list, and of the three deGrom is the only pitcher in Major League history to win a Rookie of the Year and consecutive Cy Young Awards.

On the topic of consecutive Cy Young Awards, that is a feat which has been accomplished by just 11 pitchers. Of those 10, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Steve Carlton, Pedro Martinez, and Jim Palmer are in the Hall of Fame. Roger Clemens likely would’ve been but for the steroids implications, and we reasonably expect Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer to be inducted when they are eligible.

Ultimately, that means seven of the 11 pitchers who have accomplished this feat are in the Hall of Fame. Looking forward, the question is whether deGrom can be the eighth.

When looking at deGrom’s Hall of Fame chances, the biggest obstacle at the moment is his not having made his Major League debut until his age 26 season. As noted by Beyond the Box Score, Old Hoss Radbourn, Mordecai Brown, Joe McGinnity, and Hoyt Wilhelm are the only four pitchers who debuted in or after their age 26 season inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Of those four three of them were starting pitchers.

Looking at the aforementioned three older starting pitchers, they averaged a 54.4 JAWS and a 58.9 WAR7. Even if deGrom were to repeat his 10.1 WAR from 2018, his subsequent 45.0 JAWS/WAR7 would fall short of the mean. However, it would put him in line with Brown.

But that is an important point. The one thing to take a look at is deGrom has only pitched six years in the majors. Even with his hitting the 200 inning mark in each of the past three years, he doesn’t have much mileage on his arm. This has him in the prime of his career with an opportunity to build off of these past two years.

Essentially, what deGrom needs to do is repeat the success Max Scherzer has had.

Entering his age 32 season Scherzer had accumulated a 37.0 WAR in 10 years. Over that time frame, he had two Cy Young awards with two other top five finishes. In the ensuing three years, Scherzer had accumulated a 21.7 WAR with another Cy Young and two more top three Cy Young finishes. At this moment in time, Scherzer is rightfully seen as a future Hall of Famer.

Assuming for a moment, deGrom has similar success over the next three years, he would have a 56.6 career WAR. That number would definitively put him in the conversation with the aforementioned starters, and it would start putting him in the larger conversation as well with his approaching his opt out year in his contract.

If deGrom does pitch that way, he is going to earn another Cy Young award. Winning that award would be of vital importance. While Denny McLain and Tim Lincecum have not and will not be inducted into the Hall of Fame, Clemens remains the only pitcher with more than three Cy Youngs not in the Hall of Fame, and again, we know there are extenuating circumstances there.

Now, we know the Hall of Fame is not just a WAR exercise. When looking at any position, especially pitcher, we need to dig a little deeper. When doing that, right now, deGrom’s case looks great.

So far, deGrom has the fifth best ERA+ in baseball history putting him ahead of pitchers like Walter Johnson and Christy Mathewson. His K/9 is 15th best ahead of hurlers like Pedro Martinez and Nolan Ryan. It’s not his strikeout rate, but his control which stands out. His 4.72 K/BB is eighth best in Major League history putting him ahead of pitchers like Greg Maddux and Roy Halladay.

His 1.053 WHIP ranks ninth bettering the career marks of pitchers like Sandy Koufax and Tom Glavine. His 2.78 FIP is better than the career marks of Cy Young and Bob Gibson.

As you break it down, deGrom stands right there among all the greats, and he has the awards to prove it. He also has the postseason success. When looking at deGrom, we are seeing a Hall of Fame career. All deGrom has to do from this point forward is stay healthy and maintain his greatness.

Whether he can do it is anyone’s guess. Whether he gets there or not, it is going to be fun watching him prove his greatness every fifth day in a New York Mets uniform.

13 thoughts on “With Second Cy Young, Jacob deGrom Looking Like a Hall of Famer”

  1. LongTimeFan1 says:

    So happy Degrom won it. I thought he blew that chance in April but am happy to be wrong..

    I follow Degrom’s career WAR start to start . I’ve been thinking Hall of Fame potential since last season. He needs another 4-5 strong years to sign his ticket in. Doesn’t have to be consecutive. Assuming he stays healthy and pitches to 40, adding even 2-4 WAR combined with 4-5 strong, (let’s say 7 or more WAR per) it’s hard to see how he doesn’t reach Cooperstown using 73.2 WAR as ballpark benchmark. See Below.

    Baseball-Reference has him at 34.9 career WAR with the average Hall of Fame pitcher 73.2 with 49.7 7-year peak.

    5 years at 7 WAR average makes him lock. He just has to stay healthy. Winning a World Series would also grow his BR Hall of Fame Monitor nuumbers which haven’t yet been upgraded after his CY Young and perhaps 2019 season which I can’t tell. His Hall Monitor would go up to 46 of 100 with the 5 points gained with this season’s CY Young.

    I think Degrom is also positioned to be one of the rare few these days who play with one team his entire career. His contract takes him to age 36 season if he doesn’t exercise his opt out after 2022. Or if he opts out then and signs new Mets deal. He wants to win a World Series which is surely the way to keep him here by rolling out a contender year after year. We have nucleus for that and must fix the holes in the coming years to make that happen. Pen, upper minors, depth, additional speed and a smart, focused, mechanically and fundamentally sound team on all sides of the ball.

  2. Oldbackstop says:

    So, waiting on the Beltran sign blog post?

    Here is something I haven’t seen out there, you can have it as an exclusive:

    2016 Astros most Ks in the AL
    Beltran joins the Astros
    2017 Astros least Ks in the AL
    2018 Astros second from last in Ks in the AL
    2019 Astros last in Ks in the AL

    1. metsdaddy says:

      A blog post discussing what? Leaks that the two people who left the Astros are now suddenly the masterminds despite them continuing it after both left?

      If there’s more than a convenient leak, I’ll be happy to address it.

      1. Oldbackstop says:

        Actually, it will be sufficient if Beltran merely knew of it and tells the MLB this week that he didn’t…..and they don’t believe him. They have said that anyone that lies to them will get heavily suspended.

        And if the system is as rumored….banging on trash cans… the whole team knew. Beltran knew.

        1. metsdaddy says:

          There’s a line between knowing and being a mastermind as has been portrayed

  3. LongTimefan1 says:

    Beltran is known known for his integrity and hard work.. He denies involvement and I believe him and will continuein the absence of evidence to the contrary.

    Alex Cora efuses comment.

    And Per Andy Martino, Today on SNY:

    Although Major League Baseball will interview Carlos Beltran and Alex Cora about sign-stealing allegations involving the Houston Astros, the league does not have either accusations or evidence that would point to severe discipline for either, according to a person familiar with the investigation.”

    1. metsdaddy says:

      I tend to believe him because I have a hard time believing something so technologically intricate was devised by a DH

      1. rgregory jones says:

        No. The MLB has been very explicit that they expect no BS in these interviews. If you say you didn’t know, and evidence leads them to believe you must have, you will receive discipline of a suspension or whatever. This isn’t a jury trial, anymore than their domestic abuse suspensions are.

        Beltran has given them free discovery with his public statements.

      2. Oldbackstop says:

        A tv and banging on garbage cans?

  4. Oldbackstop says:

    Anyway deGrom has a good chance if he get four more solid years under his belt and gets to the minimum of ten required.

    Remember, after three years Matt Harvey had a lower
    career ERA than deGrom has now, and many thought hom a HoF shoe–in

    1. metsdaddy says:

      Harvey probably would’ve been a Hall of Famer if not for the TOS

      1. Oldbackstop says:

        A million guys would have been in the HoF butcept for this and butcept for that. A lot of guys look great after 3 or 4 dominant years in their first five.

        The HoF is a long, long way from that.

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