Mets Should Be Extended Syndergaard And Wheeler, Not Trading Them
According to recent reports, for some unfathomable reason, the Mets appear to be pushing to trade Noah Syndergaard. They are looking to trade him despite his trade value being at its proverbial nadir, and they are looking to trade him despite saying they are looking to contend in 2020.
To put it in perspective, Syndergaard is currently 20th in the majors in FIP. That is despite his struggles with the new ball and pitching to Wilson Ramos. We also know he is pitching in front of a National League worst defense. That is why we see the disparity between his 4.33 ERA and his being top 20 in the league in Fielding Independent Pitching.
Ultimately, despite the advanced metrics some like to ignore, it is eminently fair to say this is the worst year of Syndergaard’s career. His stats across the board are at their career worsts. That said, with his stuff and his FIP he remains one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. That is why with him on the trade block we are seeing smart organizations like the Astros, Padres, Twins, and Yankees make a push to get him.
When you are positioned as a team with a player like Syndergaard everyone wants, shouldn’t you at least be questioning why am I looking to trade him to another team? Based upon the trades you have executed this past year which have blown up in your face, at what point do you stop and admit you don’t know more than everyone else? More than any of that, if everyone sees Syndergaard as a piece which puts them over the top, why don’t you see him the same way?
Better put, why aren’t the Mets looking to sign an ace level pitcher with two years of control to a contract extension?
Remember, this is the lowest Syndergaard’s value has ever been, and it is likely this is the lowest it will ever be. After this season, we should reasonably expect the 27 year old to be entering his prime years and take off. We should once again see the pitcher who was one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2016 and has been a big game pitcher.
Remember, Syndergaard is one of the few pitchers in baseball right now able to go toe-to-toe with Madison Bumgarner in a big game. He has a 2.42 postseason ERA with a 12.5 K/9. You build around this player. But the Mets aren’t.
They’re going to look to trade him while selling everyone on getting a haul of players/prospects in return while they sign Zack Wheeler to an extension. Wheeler is a good pitcher in his own right who would be worthwhile extending at the right cost. However, in no way do you look to extend the 29 year old player who his three years older over the 26 year old ace you don’t have to trade.
No, if you are the Mets, you should be looking to extend both players now. You have the opportunity to construct the extensions to best fit your window of contending. We all laugh at the Nationals contract situation, but they have been over .500 and contending for nearly a decade now. Their deferral plan allowed them to go through a Bryce Harper/Ryan Zimmerman core to Juan Soto/Victor Robles core seemlessly.
If the Mets knew what they were doing, and they really operated like a New York franchise, they would be extending Syndergaard and Wheeler. The fact that they’re not speaks volumes as to how poorly this franchise is operated and just how much Major League Baseball needs to intevene.
Exactly right!
I couldn’t agree more.
The rumors regarding what the return would be doesn’t seem equitable. I would concentrate on the Frazier, Ramos, Diaz, Vargas potential deals.. hopefully get lucky in the return for a true center fielder and some RP help etc .
The four SPs
(deGrom, Matz, Thor, Zack still have the makings of an elite rotation. Keep them together
@pal88
“The four SPs
(deGrom, Matz, Thor, Zack still have the makings of an elite rotation. Keep them together“
2017
2018
2019
Waiting any longer?
Sounds like a 2016 SI Cover shot
@Warrior Wilpon Yeah, Matz just isn’t the guy. He’s been way below average since the end of 2016. No contender would still be keeping him around in the rotation. Try him out of the pen and, if he can’t cut him, consider DFA’ing him.
As for Wheeler, he had a great 2/5ths of a season out of… 7? He’s a #4 starter on a contender, given the results he gets. Syndergaard’s a #3. The Mets desperately needed Charlie Morton last offseason and instead picked up Jed Lowrie and Justin Wilson, the latter of whom Morton’s signing would have obviated. They’re clueless.
Matz is a real solid four or five starter, especially since he has flashes of brilliance like that.
On Wheeler, I think you’re under selling him. He’s 21st in FIP this year, and we’ve seen him on multiple occasions turn it on in the second half.
What if Harvey hears of the other starters love for Regan?
deGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz and Harvey for 2020 – 2021?
Here is to being elite?!
“According to recent reports, for some unfathomable reason, the Mets appear to be pushing to trade Noah Syndergaard. They are looking to trade him despite his trade value being at its proverbial nadir,…”
—–Worst-run team in baseball, right here in New York City. This is the time to extend a player who is better than his stats: By buying low (at least, lower than his peak). Still, no one should be under the illusion Syndergaard is an ace. He has a 10 cent head. He has trouble staying on the field. He had more trouble adjusting to the new ball than most. He’s a good pitcher with great stuff who has never actually had a great season.
Even crediting his minor league innings in 2015 and pro rating him to a full season in 2019 Syndergaard doesn’t average 150 innings per season. Even if we keep those credits and too charitably throw out his self-abbreviated 2017 season, he barely average 175 IP per.
His FIP is fine this year, but also worse than it has even been, and if the Mets extend him it should be while knowing that (a) his peak at the start of 2020 will have been 4 years ago, that (b) FIP is nice, but results also matter, and Noah’s FIP since his rookie season is always better than his results. (c) His WHiP last year and this is over 1.2. That’s not elite. And now he’s giving up 1 HR/9. That’s definitely not elite.
He’s worth having in the rotation, obviously, He would significantly improve every team in the majors. But his early promise never fully materialized. He’s not an ace on a contender.
“….and they are looking to trade him despite saying they are looking to contend in 2020.”
—–The FO is lying to us.
Again. I hope no one thinks otherwise. That they lied all last offseason, and the offseason before, and the offseason before… well, all it means is that nothing has changed, and if Wags wasn’t as much a liar and a con man as the Wilpons, he would never have been hired. They don’t want to pay Syndergaard’s arb 2 and arb 3 salaries. They want to recycle him into a cheap pitcher, preferably not even arb-eligible (and therefore probably without a reliable track record), so they can squeeze a couple of seasons out of him, dump that guy, and do it again in 2-3 years. In trade they want a cheap pitcher and a cheap position player, probably CF, since they can currently fake every other position on the diamond. They’ll ask for at least one meaningless throw in to pad the look of the deal.
It’s too bad. MD’s right, and the Mets should have locked up both Syndergaard and Wheeler 2-3 years ago for close to the price they would have to pay the former today. Also, if you were going to sign one of two you’d want to sign Syndergaard. What’ll he cost… 4/80 versus Wheeler at something like 3/45? So the Mets don’t want to give the clearly better pitcher an add’l 5m AAV and a 4th year. This is similar to the difference between the Granderson and Jay Bruce signings. With one you very probably get value, maybe a little more. With the latter you’re lucky if you break even. That’s so Mets. That’s so Wilpons.
REMEMBER, every move will be made with the aim of faking contention next season and keeping the team close to .500 for the first half of the season so they can pretend to be in it. That’s the business model. That’s all this is, to them.
I love the deal…. Luis Urias will be the 2020 starting third baseman … but what is the backup plan? The guy has no MLB success ! He steals bases! His mlb dWAR is not exciting … he will K > 100 per 130 games … big bat?
Stroman’s HR per inning is outstanding …. hopefully he is team oriented and has a baseball that moves where he needs 105 mph to get swings and misses….
There must be another prospect coming from SD?
If Díaz is in this deal? Then?
Hopefully we can milk the Dodgers and move Díaz…
Whomever wants to extend Syndergaard I get you but the guy can focus to exhaustion but will never dominate in a post season game.
Noah has not pitched inside nor protected a teammate by drilling anyone!!!
Adios!!!!
I love my gut about Wheeler’s clubhouse presence, not need to feed ego above team, his great swing and miss slider.
I want the certainty of locking him up now.
I prefer him to Noah.
His upside is #2 starter and Noah with flat FB will never be a #3 starter on a WS winner…
I need more pieces on the forty man…. do the deal!
Character and team vs individual focus counts!
https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=woods-000sim
Like the ground ball rate, low HR rate, Ks….
Should be in the MLB before 24 years old.
From a negotiation standpoint.
If Mets are moving Wheeler or Noah…
By taking Stroman off the market the teams : SD, Atlanta, Houston, NYY who are out there looking for a starter will have one less to bargain for.
Obviously, Bochte in his last year, the SFG in last thirty games Baumgartner is staying put….
The Mets seeking a three way deal with Noah MIGHT have acquired Stroman with the inclination to make him available. ..
Brody can offer Noah, Zach and Stroman and make one deal for a SS, catcher, OF or pitching stud his goal as one of the players…
But getting a MLB starter in that deal might be the preference vs all prospects?
Word is that Mets are staying put…..
deGrom Stroman Noah Wheeler Matz and Vargas will be rotation w Vargas as a swing, long relief…..
Go for it!!!
Seeing how Brodie operates, I’m not sure if he can bring a real prospect back in a trade. It may cause him to break out into hives.
I get some of what you’re saying, but Wheeler will be 30 next year.
I don’t know who you are talking about because you’re clearly not talking about Noah Syndergaard
What about using Noah and whatever to get Kyle Tucker?
THEY NEED STUD, AAA PROVEN, ATHLETES WHO PLAY DEFENSE!
WE NEED SPEED, RAZOR SHARP ARMS IN THE FIELD
AND w EXCEPTIONAL RANGE
IF THEY CAN NOT GET THEM NOW FOR ONE or TWO OF THESE PITCHERS
IF NOT.
THEN DO NOT TRADE!
And what else?
That’s one thing I loved about Omar. He immediately moved to lock up Wright and Reyes. It allowed the team to make other moves around them by knowing you have them and have them at a discount.
This is what the Mets needed to do with their pitching, but they didn’t. That meant paying deGrom off a Cy Young season and believing they need to trade Thor.
@MD The kernel of the catastrophe, right there. Locking in their good or promising players would have set the team up into 2023, at which point the players now in the low minors start contributing at the major league level. It would have meant a slight overpay for Matz (assuming extending players early on the Rays model was the team’s MO, who should have been moved to the pen three years ago and probably put on the DL for the entirety of 2016), but otherwise they’d be doing fine, with no false urgency to push them into silly deals.
That might even have pushed the Wilpons to protect their investments (since simple humanity doesn’t seem to be involved) such as by benching Nimmo early when his neck started bothering him. If they had locked him up, cheap, after 2017 (I would have done it after 2016, fwiw–kids with .380 OBPs in the minors who can play CF don’t come around often), buying out or buying options on his first couple of FA years, the Wilpons might have been more inclined to treat him well. They should have realized no later than the 2017-2018 offseason that Nimmo was at least as valuable as they thought Lagares was when they signed the latter to an extension / arb buyout.
In short, I agree on pitching, but would have included position players among the players the Mets should have locked up. This fumbling, year to year, is a mug’s game.
This is the end result of the penny wise pound foolish ways of the Wilpons. It’s not extending guys to get cost certainty. It’s backloading free agent deals. It’s getting RHP relief prospects instead of real ones at the trade deadline.
In short, this is not how you run an organization.
Brodie has traded four of our highest ceiling prospects for Diaz, the back half of Cano’s career and a year and a half of Stroman, my goodness
Well if he does trade Wheeler, Kay, Woods Richardson and gets Stroman and prospects ?
Kelenic and Dunn are not having great years.
Maybe Metsdaddy can point out how the stats of Kelenic and Dunn this year show stardom?
I wouldn’t look to stats, especially for Kelenic. It’s about skill set. For example, Lugo had a 6.50 ERA in Triple-A.
You can not explain:
-A dearth of outfield assists
-Caught stealing
High strikeouts
Few walks
Is not permanent
But great hitters dominate ?
In A ball?
I’m not judging any player, let alone a prospect, by OF assists or stolen bases. When it comes to Kelenic, consider he’s a teenager playing against former college kids with more professional experience
They also traded away a World Series window opening in 2022.
@David Klein It’s even worse than that. Given this is a lost season, we’re getting just a year out of Stroman. Wags is clueless. He’s also going to send the Mets projection down to the mid-70s in 2020 by dealing at least one of Syndergaard and Wheeler, My bet is neither is back on the Mets next year.
What if Mets send two pitchers to SF for Baumgartner ?
Why would they?
I agree, Baumgartner is pure playoff domination!
Carry a team in a wildcard!
To have any chance to contend in 2020 the Mets would need to extend Wheeler, keep Syndergaard, and significantly improve their OF defense by adding a real and durable CFer, even if it’s a 4th OF type who pushes Nimmo and Conforto back to the corners and keeps JD Davis and Dom Smith out of the OF entirely except in emergencies.
The Mets could actually contend with a rotation of deGrom, Syndergaard, Stroman, Wheeler, and Vargas / Matz / Gsellman, but they’d also have to vastly improve the bullpen and be willing to push Cano to the bench and install McNeil at 2B.
That’s, what, a 200m payroll? It’s not happening, but that’s how it would be done.
A strong 1-4 rotation to compensate for a mediocre batting order and weak but improved defense and an iffy bullpen.
Teams have won World Series with that kind of arrangement before. It won’t happen, the Wilpons aren’t spending, but it’s within reach.
What we’ll see, though, is the ongoing pretense that Matz is a starter on a contender, we’ll see Wheeler surely dealt, and we’ll very probably see Syndergaard gone, and consequently a rotation of deGrom, Stroman, Matz, Vargas, and whatever cheapie they can get for the 5th slot in the rotation–probably Gsellman. It would be very Mets to stand typical practice on its head and instead of using a failed starter in relief, use a failed reliever to start. They’ll once again bumble the OF issue, probably pretending that Cespedes might return so they can’t commit to anyone actually good on D in the OF, and they’ll give Cano at least one more year at 2B.
Ah well, fans. Remember that halcyon day or two in late July of 2019 when the Mets however briefly had a 2020 contender in hand.
I do not see an outfield that can cover ground and throw and to keep all these starters….
Who do you see as playoff dominate ?
Swings and misses ?
Blow out pitches?
Against better competition ?
I prefer Zach, lower long term cost and I do not see them paying Noah and deGrom…
Get defenders and ,,,,,, for Synderqaard
If we’re talking 2020 and the Mets can find someone who fields like Lagares or even Broxton in their primes, then the CF bat won’t matter much–at least, emphasizing defense is an affordable option. That would leave the overall OF defense a little above average since Nimmo and Conforto don’t see CF.
The IF defense is still a problem, though. They need to bench Cano for McNeil. That still leaves them below average on D at every IF spot, though. Rosario is the obvious guy to replace. Get a glove wizard at SS and suddenly you’re back in it. Or leave him there, pray, and focus on getting a glove man for 3B. Decent offense, average defense overall, good to excellent pitching for each spot with Wheeler as the #4 starter. That’s a team that can win a WS. With some luck.
Still, with the self-imposed payroll limitations and the knuckleheaded FO, we won’t see much if any of this.
I’ll have more on this tomorrow, but the infield defense is probably better than most realize – especially of late.