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Mets Problem Isn’t Analytics, It’s The Wilpons

As reported by Mike Puma of the New York Post, Mets owner Fred Wilpon does not want to hire a younger and more analytics driven executive for two reasons.  The first is he feels he will have a harder time connecting with that person.  The second and perhaps all the more baffling is the “thought among team officials that perhaps the Mets became too analytics driven in recent seasons under Sandy Alderson’s watch . . . .”

Taking the thought at face value, we really need to question which analytics the Mets are using to inform their decisions.

For starters, look at Asdrubal Cabrera.  Everyone knew he was no longer a shortstop, so that left the question over whether he should have been a second or third baseman heading into the 2018 season.

In 2017, Cabrera was a -6 DRS in 274.1 innings at second.  That should have come as no surprise as he was a -10 DRS the last time he saw extensive action at second base (2014).  Conversely, in his 350.1 innings at third last year, he had a 1 DRS.

Naturally, the Mets went with Cabrera at second this season where he has been an MLB worst -20 DRS.  That makes him not just the worst second baseman in all of baseball, it makes him the worst defensive infielder in all of baseball.

Of course, the Mets got there by acquiescing a bit to Cabrera’s preference to play second over third.  This was also the result of the team turning down a Paul Sewald for Jason Kipnis swap.  That deal was nixed over money.

With respect to Sewald, he was strong when the season began.  In April, he had a 1.91 ERA and a 0.805 WHIP.  Since that point, Sewald has a 5.73 ERA, a 1.485 WHIP, and multiple demotions to Triple-A.

As for Kipnis, he has struggled this year hitting .226/.313/.363.  It should be noted this was mostly due to a horrific April which saw him hit .178/.254/.243.  Since that tough start to the season, Kipnis has gotten progressively better.  Still, it is difficult to lose sleep over Kipnis even if the rejected trade put Cabrera at second and it led to the Mets signing Todd Frazier, who is hitting .217/.298/.368.

In addition to bringing Cabrera back into the fold, the Mets also brought back Jay Bruce after having traded the then impending free agent to the Cleveland Indians for Ryder Ryan.

At the time the Mets signed Bruce, they needed a center fielder.  The team already had Yoenis Cespedes in left, and once he returned from the disabled list, the team was going to have Michael Conforto in right.  Until the time Conforto was ready, the team appeared set with Brandon Nimmo in the short-term.

In 69 games in 2017, Nimmo hit .260/.379/.418.  In those games, Nimmo showed himself to be a real candidate for the leadoff spot on a roster without an obvious one, especially in Conforto’s absence.  With him making the league minimum and his having shown he could handle three outfield positions, he seemed like an obvious choice for a short term solution and possible someone who could platoon with Juan Lagares in center.

Instead, the Mets went with Bruce for $39 million thereby forcing Conforto to center where he was ill suited.  More than that, Bruce was coming off an outlier year in his free agent walk year.  Before that 2017 rebound season, Bruce had not had a WAR of at least 1.0 since 2013, and he had just one season over a 100 wRC+ in that same stretch.  In response to that one outlier season at the age of 30, the Mets gave Bruce a three year deal.

Still, that may not have been the worst contract handed out by the Mets this past offseason.  That honor goes to Jason Vargas.

The Mets gave a 35 year old pitcher a two year $16 million deal to be the team’s fifth starter despite the fact the team had real starting pitching depth.  At the time of the signing, the Mets had Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Zack Wheeler, Matt Harvey, Seth Lugo, Robert Gsellman, Chris Flexen, and Corey Oswalt as starting pitching depth.

Instead of using five of them and stashing four of them in Triple-A, the Mets opted to go with Vargas as the fifth starter.  Even better, they depleted their starting pitching depth by moving Gsellman and Lugo the to bullpen.  Of course, this had the added benefit of saving them money thereby allowing them to sign Anthony Swarzak, a 32 year old reliever with just one good season under his belt.

The Mets were rewarded with the decision to sign Vargas by his going 2-8 with an 8.75 ERA and a 1.838 WHIP.  He’s also spent three separate stints on the disabled list.

What’s funny about Vargasis he was signed over the objections of the Mets analytics department.  From reports, Vargas was not the only one.  Looking at that, you have to question just how anyone associated with the Mets could claim they have become too analytics driven.  Really, when you ignore the advice of those hired to provide analytical advice and support, how could you point to them as the problem?

They’re not.

In the end, the problem is the same as it always has been.  It’s the Wilpons.

They’re the ones looking for playing time for Jose Reyes at a time when everyone in baseball thinks his career is over.  They’re the ones not reinvesting the proceeds from David Wrights insurance policy into the team.  They’re the ones who have a payroll not commensurate with market size or World Series window.  They’re the ones rejecting qualified people for a job because of an 81 year year old’s inability to connect with his employees.

Really, you’re not going to find an analytical basis to defend making a team older, less versatile, more injury prone, and worse defensively.

What you will find is meddlesome ownership who thinks they know better than everyone.  That’s why they’re 17 games under .500 with declining attendance and ratings while saying the Yankees financial model is unsustainable at a time the Yankees are heading to the postseason again and the team has the highest valuation of any Major League team.

5 thoughts on “Mets Problem Isn’t Analytics, It’s The Wilpons”

  1. FIVE TOOL OWNERSHIP says:

    I am ALL FOR investing in scouts.
    They were labeled the cheapest investor in analytics anyway!

  2. FIVE TOOL OWNERSHIP says:

    Trump should open his tac retirns?
    The Wilpons, their SAT scores?
    The Wilpons have been viewed by business associates as not BEING exceptional thinkers.
    They should admit that.
    Less smarts less ability to understand analytics.

    THE BIGGEST USER OF ANALYTICS ARE THE BOSTON RED SOX
    SO IT IS NOT ABOUT A GM BUT AN ORG CULTURE

  3. Gothamist says:

    They brought in brilliant young GM, a great analytic guy and invested bucks!

    Organization and owners letting the front office talent rule.

    http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/188202912/death-to-the-curse-brian-kenny-book-excerpt

  4. Blu2MileHigh says:

    What organizations and under what role would pick up Jeff Wilpon’s resume?
    Think about John Henry’s life success and how many great minds he hired?
    Below him, first a President, then a GM…

    For the Mets – Jeff Wilpon incests into GM decisions without 1/50 John Henry’s previous success before owning the Sox.

    Jeff Wilpon did what before the Mets?

  5. FIVE TOOL OWNERSHIP says:

    Jeff to many of us is extremely entitled and enabled.

    How he introduced the Sandy relapse cancer press conference was the most tactless, insensitive, fear of judgement neurosis, selfish, non compassionate send off ever!!!

    Here is a guy who meddles, a guy who is gun shy from his own mistakes before Sandy, who demands unprecedented salary and payroll constraints, who worked with Sandy and Sandy with Ricco, Riccardi etc…

    AND JEFF WILPON COULD NOT SAY:

    “We all failed?”
    “I am as much to blame as anyone”
    “This is not Sandy’s doing nor THE DAY TO DISCUSS THIS!!

    Jeff to most of our knowledge never worked his way up elsewhere in a meritocracy, nor did Jeff to our knowledge work up in the Mets via merit nor did Jeff work under and work himself up in the reigns Frank Cashen, Joe McLavane, Steve Phillips or Omar Minaya.

    In tne memory of Johnny Murphy, Joe McDonald, Bing Divine, Whitey Herzog this is one sad depressing scenario that Jeff Wilpon has thirty years to go and no alternative if he should step down or sell his 26% stake in the team…

    Has anyone done a blog post of Jeff Wilpon’s CV, resume etc…. since HighSchool or College?

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