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Who’s Better: 2015 or 2018 Mets?

Entering the season, Yoenis Cespedes made the bold declaration the 2018 Mets were better than the 2015 Mets.  Now, if you recall that 2015 team, it did feature players like Eric Campbell and John Mayberry.  However, those players were not on the team at the same time as Cespedes.  When Cespedes joined the Mets, he was on a much better roster, a roster which went all the way to the World Series.

With that consideration, it is certainly bold for Cespedes to make that declaration, but is he right?  Let’s take a look:

CATCHER

2015: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki
2018: Travis d’Arnaud, Kevin Plawecki

Just looking at those names, you may be quick to think not much has changed in the catching situation.  In reality, everything is different, and the main difference is these catchers stand on much different footing.

The 2015 season was d’Arnaud’s best as a player with him posting a 126 OPS+ and emerging as an elite pitch framer.  Plawecki was overmatched at the plate, but he did handle the pitching staff exceptionally well.  Since that time, both had gone on to disappoint in 2016 and much of 2017.

Things changed at the tail end of 2017.  Plawecki finally looked like the player the Mets once thought he would become.  d’Arnaud would finish the season with a strong September.  As a result, they will look to begin the 2018 season in a unique time sharing agreement designed to keep both healthy and effective all year long.

VERDICT: 2018if both replicate their Septembers, this won’t even be close

FIRST BASE

2015: Lucas Duda
2018: Adrian Gonzalez

In 2015, Duda hit .244/.352/.486 with 27 homers and 73 RBI.  He was as streaky as he ever was unable to carry the team when they needed his bat most, and he almost single-handedly beat the Nationals in a key late July series.

Gonzalez is coming off the worst year of his career, and he is still dealing with back issues which requires him to warm up two hours before the game starts.

VERDICT: 2015 Gonzalez may not be around long enough to make a bad throw

SECOND BASE

2015: Daniel Murphy
2018: Asdrubal Cabrera

We got a glimpse of what Murphy would became with him slugging .533 over the final two months of the season. Even with the increased power, no one could predict the home run barrage he’d unleash in the postseason.

For his part, Cabrera finds himself at second a year after protesting moving there or anywhere. He’s been a good hitter with the Mets, and he’s been terrific in the clutch. We’ll see if the injuries will permit him to be that again.

VERDICT: 2015 – Murphy’s postseason was an all-time great one

THIRD BASE

2015: David Wright
2018: Todd Frazier

This was really the last hurrah for Wright in a Mets uniform. He was very good in the 30 games he played after coming off the DL hitting .277/.381/.437. He’d hit two emotional homers: (1) his first at-bat since coming off the DL; and (2) his first World Series at-bat at Citi Field.

Frazier has been a solid to somewhat underrated player. Over the last three years, he’s averaged 34 homers, 88 RBI, and a 110 OPS+. He’s been a good fielder averaging a 5 DRS over that stretch.

VERDICT: 2018 – Frazier is no Wright, but he’s healthy

SHORTSTOP

2015: Ruben Tejada
2018: Amed Rosario

Tejada was not supposed to be the starting shortstop in 2015.  After wasting a few chances which led to Omar Quintanilla getting the bulk of the playing time over him, the Mets moved on to Flores.  Eventually, Collins and the Mets went back to Tejada because: (1) he had steadier hands; and (2) he had a .362 OBP in the second half.  Who knows how everything would have turned out had Chase Utley not broken his leg with a dirty slide/tackle.

Rosario is the future of the Mets.  Yes, there are flaws in his game like his very low walk rate.  However, this is a uniquely gifted player who is dedicated to being better.  He’s electric, and he’s got the skill set to be a superstar for a very long time.  For now, we will settle for him being a good defensive shortstop who brings real speed and upside to the table.

VERDICT: 2018 Rosario’s ceiling is just way too high

OUTFIELD

2015: Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson
2018: Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce

Cespedes was just an otherworldly player when he joined the Mets.  Despite his only being a Met for a few months, he finished in the Top 15 in MVP voting.  Really, the MVP for the Mets that year was Granderson who was a leader in the clubhouse on the lineup.  He had the most homers from a lead-off hitter, and he was a Gold Glove finalist.  Conforto jumped from Double-A to post a 133 wRC+ and a much better than expected 9 DRS in left.

With respect to the 2018 outfield, we see Conforto is a much better play (when healthy), and Cespedes is nowhere near as good as he was when he joined the Mets.  To be fair, there’s no way he could, but he’s still an All Star caliber player.  This means the main difference between the squads is Bruce and Granderson.

VERDICT: 2015 – That Cespedes was just that much better.

BENCH

2015: Michael Cuddyer, Wilmer Flores, Kelly Johnson, Juan Lagares
2018: Wilmer Flores, Juan Lagares, Brandon Nimmo, Jose Reyes

From the moment Uribe and Johnson joined the Mets, they were game changers.  They both brought a winning attitude and game winning hits.  In addition to the two of them, Lagares was the defensive specialist, a role to which he is best suited, and Cuddyer was a platoon partner with either Conforto or Duda depending on whether Lagares started the game as well.  Overall, it was a veteran bench who provided needed leadership.

The Mets current bench is similar to the 2015 bench with Reyes trying to emulate the Uribe role even if he’s not as productive a player.  Flores is Flores, but a better hitter, and believe it or not, a worse fielder.  Lagares rediscovered his range he lost in 2015.  Nimmo should be in the everyday lineup and leading off, but early indications are he won’t.

VERDICT: 2015 – Uribe and Johnson were just that important

ROTATION

2015: Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz, Bartolo Colon
2018: Noah Syndergaard, Jacob deGrom, Steven Matz, Matt Harvey, Jason Vargas

When you consider Vargas was basically brought in to replicate what Colon did in 2015, the question is whether you believe the Mets top four starters are better as a group now or then.  Looking at it objectively, Syndergaard is the only one who has improved with no one knowing what Harvey and Matz can still provide.

VERDICT: 2015 – they were just healthier then

BULLPEN

2015: Jeurys Familia, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed, Hansel Robles, Jon Niese, Sean Gilmartin, Erik Goeddel
2018: Jeurys Familia, Anthony Swarzak, AJ Ramos, Jerry Blevins, Robert Gsellman, Seth Lugo, Paul Sewald

Familia was that good in 2015 that he was able to cover many of the warts in the 2015 bullpen.  This resulted in Collins using him for multiple innings more than any other closer that year.  Reed would begin his emergence as a great reliever, but a back injury would cost Clippard of his effectiveness.  One surprise was Niese performing well as a lefty in the bullpen.

When you include Sewald’s Triple-A experience, this is a bullpen with three closers, six pitchers with closer’s stuff, and a very good LOOGY in Blevins.  Even if Familia is not as good as he was in 2015, it won’t matter because there is enough depth here for the Mets to not need to rely upon him as much.

VERDICT: 2018 – they’re just deeper and with more upside

MANAGER

2015: Terry Collins
2018: Mickey Callaway

For all the warts and problems Mets fans discovered with Collins, he had his finest year as a manager in 2015.  When the ship could have sunk multiple times, he pulled the team together and kept things afloat until the team got healthy and reinforcements arrived.  Of course, he followed this up by helping cost the Mets the World Series with a series of baffling decisions which all blew up in the Mets faces.

Right now, Callaway looks like a genius.  He’s innovative batting Cespedes second and Rosario ninth.  He came down hard on Dominic Smith for being late.  His players seem to love him, and the baseball world roundly believes the Mets made an excellent hire.  However, the season isn’t even a week old.  Even if everyone is a fan at the moment, let’s check back in a couple of months to see if he’s an innovative genius or if he’s a know-it-all who can’t leave good enough alone.

Verdict: 2018 – Collins did cost the Mets a World Series

VERDICT

If you break it down, the 2015 Mets were better at first, second, outfield, bench, and rotation.  The 2018 version is better at catcher, third, short, bullpen, and manager.  Looking at the breakdown, you can say it’s a 5-5 draw.  However, in reality, it’s not.  That 2015 team pitching rotation was just so dominant, and hypothetically, if these teams were going to step on the same field, the 2015 rotation would dominate the 2018 version.

That said, there is a lot of talent on this 2018 team, and from what we have seen so far, this is a roster tailor made to what we presume is Callaway’s talents as a manager.  If Callaway is indeed as good as we hope it will be, we can see him and Dave Eiland taking this pitching staff as a whole to the next level.  If that can happen, and with a little help, this Mets team could accomplish what the 2015 version didnt – win the World Series.

12 thoughts on “Who’s Better: 2015 or 2018 Mets?”

  1. Five Tool Ownership says:

    In comparing opening day:

    2015 Harvey would be less finesse but give up far less earned runs.
    2018 Mets played small ball for the day.
    2018 had a leadoff hitter with an aporoach.
    2018 had Gsellman coming in the sixth, would be hitting the lower boundaries of the strike zone as almost a dupicate if Eiland’s pitching staff did in the 2015 WS.

    Dave Eiland may be the most substantial difference.

    As far as Rosario’s two run single, why did ex Met Bowman throw him a fat fastball?
    SPRING TRAINING was already over…, correct?

    1. metsdaddy says:

      That was an exceptionally poor pitch selection by Bowman/Molina

  2. OldBackstop says:

    Not bad, but I think a better definition of the question needs to be made, since we are talking about how the 2015 Mets WERE versus how the 2018 Mets MIGHT be.

    I don’t think manager is even close. Callaway has won two games, Collins won a pennant. Callaway was excited he pulled off his first double-switch successfully yesterday. Losing half his roster last year wasn’t Collins fault. Give those two guys the same roster and Collins gets the better record….gotta assume that until Callaway has more years under his belt.

    My personal concern, or prediction, is he is not terribly well-respected and may have problems in discipline when the rubber hits the road.

    2015 Manager: Collins

    Starting Pitching

    Again, definitions, since you count Murphy’s postseason, I don’t know how you can leave out Niese’s 29 starts in 2015 and slot in Matz’s 6. So I won’t.

    If you do that, you could reasonably assume that DeGrom and Syndergaard are more experienced, still in their prime pitchers this year. Syndergaard only won 0 games in pitching 150 innings, DeGrom went 14-9 in 191 innings. I would certainly say they are better right now.

    You have to assume 2018 Harvey will not equal his 13 win 2015 year. Conceded.

    Colon vs. Vargas? shrug? Colon, despite hero status, was only 14-13 in 2015. He was 67 years old in the spring. I certainly don’t think you can assume 2018 Vargas, coming off a 18 win All Star campaign, won’t perform equal to the 2015 Colon.

    Fifth pitchers 2015: Niese, Dillon, Verrett and Matz totaled 46 starts and had 14 wins.

    Fifth pitcher candidates for the 2018 Mets are Lugo, Gsellman, Matz, Wheeler. Even in The Dark Year in 2017, they started 70 games and had 20 wins.

    Niese and Colon were just cannon fodder in 2015, 4 and 5 pitchers who should have their best performances behind them. That was combined with one ace in his prime, Harvey, and two young guys without much experience but with ace stuff.

    In looking at the 2018 Mets you have a staff that has experience but is still in their prime..only Vargas over 30.

    I don’t think it is close. If those two staffs had average missed time, 2018 would blow 2015 away

    Second base. Again, if you are talking Murphy’s postseason, yeah. But was regular season 2015 WAR was 1.3. Cabrera has topped that two of the last three years. Certainly, if you had to choose the 2015 Murphy or the 2016 Cabrera (2,8 WAR) it would not be close.

    Anyway, a question the would have to be much more tightly defined. Better to estimate the talent of Opening Day 2015 vs 2018, outcomes and injuries aside. Remember, 2015 was no juggernaut….in 2015 we were 40-40 on July 3, and then the Nationals got decimated by injuries.

    And I think 2018 blows them away.

    We will now some more watching Matz and Harvey, Let’s Go Matz ! 🙂

    1. metsdaddy says:

      I don’t get your issues with Callaway. This was a team thanking him for coming down hard on Dom Smith and telling him that’s not what happened under the Collins’ regime.

      1. OldBackstop says:

        Yes, I know I’m off the grid with this, it is just instinct from being around locker rooms. Like he isn’t an alpha male, sort of too jittery and friendly…..hard to win respect in a locker room. Collins could get in anyone’s face….I don’t see Callaway confronting Bruce or Frazier or Cespedes or Thor or Gonzalez. I see players rolling their eyes at his rah-rah.

        There is a scene in Wyatt Earp where Costner tells his brother he shouldn’t take the job of sheriff. “You’re too amiable.”….that’s the wrong word, but that was the gist.

        1. metsdaddy says:

          He was challenge immediately, and he immediately nipped it in the bud. That’s something Collins was never willing to do.

          You can tell us what your impression is, but what has actually happened is substantially different

  3. mike hogan says:

    looking ok so far.is Flores ever going to have a permanent position? He was supposed to be the second baseman of the future. Now he seems best as an dh.unsure about matz.

    1. metsdaddy says:

      I think the days of Flores having a permanent position have long since passed, at least with the Mets. A large part of the reason is each time an opportunity for him to claim an everyday position has emerged, he has either struggled or gotten injured.

      Despite this, his spot on the team looks safe. He’s a good hitter against lefties, and he continues to make strides against righties.

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