Lucas Duda – All Star?

For much of the 2017 season, the presumption is Michael Conforto was going to be the Mets lone representative on the All Star team.  The reason for this was because across the diamond the other Mets players were either injured or underachieving.  While there was a point in time you could have made a case for Jay Bruce, his lackluster play in May pretty much put that discussion to bed.  If you dig a little deeper, you’ll notice Lucas Duda is having a terrific year.  The question is if he’s done enough in his 140 plate appearances to merit consideration for the All Star Game.

Since coming off the Disabled List, Duda is hitting .286/.389/.610 with seven doubles, six homers, and 14 RBI.   Believe it or not, these numbers are only slightly than Duda’s stats for the season.  Overall, Duda is hitting .269/.379/.597 with nine doubles, 10 homers, and 21 RBI.  With they way Duda has been hitting this year, he has a 157 OPS+, 155 wRC+, and a 1.3 WAR.  If he continued this production, this would be a career year for Duda.  But, is it enough to merit being named an All Star.

Well, there is a case to be made.  Among players with at least 140 plate appearances, Duda is tied for third in the National League with a 155 wRC+.  He is also third in slugging percentage.  When you consider he is behind Freddie Freeman, who will miss the All Star Game with a fractured left  wrist, Duda’s case becomes all the more compelling.  However, when you begin to look at the bigger picture, it becomes much more difficult to make a case for Duda.

In terms of the more traditional counting stats, Duda lags behind the leaders.  His 10 homers is only 12th best in the National League, and his 21 RBI rank dead last among National League first baseman who have 140 plate appearances.  Of course, the main reason for this is Duda lags behind the leaders in these categories is because he missed 18 games due to a hyper-extended elbow.  While he was on the Disabled List, players like Eric Thames and even Brandon Belt were putting some distance between themselves and Duda.  Ultimately, this missed time is also a reason why Duda’s 1.2 WAR is really only good for ninth among National League first baseman.  When you’re ninth in a category like WAR, it is hard to justify making you an All Star even if you are currently the second best hitter at the position in the National League.

There’s also the issue of there being room for him on the roster.  Last year, the National League had four first baseman on the roster.  Off the bat, we know Ryan Zimmerman is going to be an All Star with the first half he’s had.  There is no way you can leave Paul Goldschmidt off the roster as he’s having another great year.  The same goes for Joey Votto.  Throw in a terrific comeback to the United States for Thames and another good year from Anthony Rizzo, and you’re really hard pressed to find room for Duda.

Still, none of this detracts from the fact Duda has been an absolute monster at the plate of late, nor does it detract from the impact he has had on this Mets lineup.  So no, Duda is not an All Star.  That shouldn’t detract from the season he is having, and it doesn’t change the fact that when he’s in the lineup, he is a difference maker for the Mets.  All Star or not, Duda is having a good year that should be celebrated by Mets fans.