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When Will Reyes Make His Move?

I can and have gone on and on ad nauseum about the Mets bringing back Jose Reyes. I promise this entry isn’t that. 

Everyone concludes, including myself, that Reyes is not coming back. We know he didn’t want to leave. We know the Mets still haven’t found a SS. We know he hasn’t sold his home. Now, he’s playing in Colorado. I’m sure he misses his family, and we all know Colorado has excellent schools, right Mike Hampton?  

This isn’t the move I’m referring to in the title.  only joking. I would never pretend to tell someone else how to raise their family. Fatherhood is difficult enough while trying to raise someone else’s kids. 

I’m not even referring to another team who may trade for him. Rather, I’m referring to Reyes making a move towards the Hall of Fame. I believe if he is going to make it, he’s probably going to need 3,000 hits. 

Reyes’ 162 game average is 198 hits per season. Going into this year, he’s only averaged 120 games a year, and he’s averaged 148 hits per year. That may seem low, but he has missed time due to injuries. Entering this season, he had 1,772 hits. He now sits at 1,866. He’s currently 1,134 short of 3,000.  

There are 47 games left in the Rockies season.   If we assume Reyes will continue to play 74% of his team’s games, he has approximately 35 games left in the season. At a rate of 1.2 hits per game, he will get an additional 42 hits. This would leave him with about 1,908 hits or 1,092 short of 3,000. 

If he continues to average 148 hits, he’ll need about eight more years to reach 3,000. That’s a lot to ask considering you’re asking him to play everyday into his age 42 season. 

I know he wants to come back to New York, but maybe going to Colorado was a blessing in disguise.  Now we know, players hit 17% better at Coors Field. I doubt the Rockies will pick up his $22 million option in 2018. That means, barring a trade, he will only have two full years in Coors Field. 

As noted above, Reyes averages 148 hits per season. In his career, Reyes gets 51% of his base hits at home. That means in a typical season, Reyes can expect to get 75 hits at home and 73 on the road. If we apply the 17% Coors Field factor, Reyes average home hits would increase to 88 hits. This would increase his hits total from 148 to 161. 

Accordingly, two years in Coors Field would put him at approximately 2,232 hits or 768 hits short entering his age 35 season. At 161 hits per year, he’d need approximately 5 more years to reach 3,000. If Reyes is healthier getting off the turf and plays 150 games per year, his hit totals could increase by an additional 40 hits per year, or 80 total. This would put him at 2,312 or 688 short. 

Now when he’s a free agent, he will have to decide if: 1) he wants to make the push towards 3,000; 2) he wants to win; or 3) hopefully both. 

If he goes for option #1 or #3, maybe he could be inducted in the Hall of Fame. Quite possibly, he would then be the Mets first position player from their farm system to do so. Maybe the Mets would then retire his number 7. I’d love to be there for both ceremonies. 

It’s a long shot right now. If that’s going to change, Reyes needs to embrace playing in Coors Field and make his move. 

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